Bonava AB (publ)

Good morning, everyone, and a very warm welcome to the year-end presentation for Bonava. An eventful year and a very busy quarter, as always. My name is Anna Falk-Filund, and I'm head of investor relations here at Bonava. And with me here today, I have our CEO, Peter Walli, and our CFO, Jon Jonsson. They will take you through the highlights of the report and at the end you will be able to ask questions. And I can urge you right now to start type your questions and I will read them out after the presentation. So with that, I leave the word over to you.

Thank you very much, Anna. And good morning to each and every one of you. And Anna said that we will walk you through the highlights. And we have a lot of highlights to walk you through. Starting off with the picture you see in front of you. That is one of the B2B deals we made during the fourth quarter of 2025. Hellerstorfer in Berlin. So... Another highlight for Bornava is our legacy. So Bornava as a name celebrates 10 years this year and the 10 years since we were spun off from NCC. But we actually have much more years than that added to the legacy and the background of Bornava and the history of building happy neighborhoods. So we will celebrate that over the course of 2026. So we are starting today with those celebrations. So let's talk about celebrations and let's talk about the outset when we talk about the report. If we talk about the market, we see stable sales, but the level of uncertainty is sort of a sort of a disbalance board. We are seeing improved markets and we are seeing a support in the markets by, of course, the lower interest rates and the pickup in the households' disposable income. And on top of that, of course, on the low production levels that we have seen over the last three to four years, the pent-up demand is also creating a very interesting dynamic in the market right now. If we look into our markets we can see in the Baltics we are seeing a high sales speed in the Baltics generally and we are also seeing an increasing demand from our customers and in especially the Swedish market there's also to some extent in the German market we are seeing leads but it takes time to convert the leads to a binding sales contract. We are seeing an increased activity in the Vestas segments, the B2B deals. And if we look into our number of ongoing building units right now, we are almost at the 30% mark of the B2B component of the total production. We, of course, see the general uncertainty with all the geopolitical surprises that never cease to exist. It creates a little bit of a headwind for a quicker turnaround of the market. The foundation, however, is improving. So leaving the market and coming into Bonova, we see higher margins. Stronger results and growth in started units. If we start by looking into our EBIT margins, it is close to double digits in the fourth quarter. And for the full year, we are beating our upgraded outlook at 6.7%. We have said that the gradual increase of our business will manifest itself in a growing net sales. And in the fourth quarter, we are seeing a 15% top line growth if we adjust for the currency effect. The started units increases by 36% to almost 2,800 units. Remember, we came from 1,300 units in 2023 and are now at 2,800. So we are on our way to be into our range of 3,500 to 4,000 units. If we then look into the number of ongoing projects, that is also increasing by 29% to more than 4,000 units. And the binding sales rate in these are 56%. We are working with this on the basis of a solid financial position and we have yet again a quite good cash flow. So we are reducing the already low net to an even lower level at 2.8 billion. This is something that Jung will of course go deeper into. Just taking a little bit of a look into what we have started during the quarter. We have started Visthuset in Sigtuna outside Stockholm. It's a B2B project. And this is a very interesting model, which we will think will be growing into the future in the rental market. In Riga, we have started a very interesting consumer project. If we continue down, we have also sold another B2B project in Leipzig, in Germany. And finally, we have started a consumer project in Gothenburg. Gothenburg is also Jon's old hometown. And if you combine this with the investor segment, it's important for Bonova. And we have grown this by 11% if we compare to 2024. And we see continued growing pipeline in this segment. So with that, Ljung, could you take us through the numbers, please?

Absolutely. Thank you, Peter. And as you properly learned from Peter's presentation, it all starts with the start. So with the growth in production and growth in starts, we are now 900 plus units in ongoing production compared to the quarter four last year. And this is of course significant for our profit generation and for our volume build up not only this year but also for the net sales to come also in 2026. The sales rate is on 56% and remember that that is excluding the reservation rates which some of our peers include. And the 56%, to give some nuances, varies a little bit with the mix on B2B or industrial sales and B2C, the consumer sales and the ratios between there. But it also differs between our markets. So you could say that Germany and Sweden are above the 56%, while the Baltics are typically lower than that because the consumer behavior in the baltic markets as we have said before differs from what we are used to in for example sweden when you in the baltics tend to only buy when the house is complete so we need to start a lot of projects in the baltics in order to sell So that has a mixed impact on the sales rate, you could say, but we are happy on the current levels. And we think that that is a solid ground then for new starts and for this controlled growth phase we are in. If we continue and look at our inventory, that is the completed unsold. You may recall that we had a quite high number a couple of years ago and that has constantly been reduced since. It's not only us, it's the whole market which have had the same issues and we can now see the progress on this one. So we had in the quarter minus 31% of the previously completed unsold as per September. So we're down 100 to 188 units, which are older than one quarter. And then in the quarter, we of course completed another 757, where of 733 was already sold. So that leaves us with 212 in the completed unsold. which we believe is again a very good level and that equals about five percent of the ongoing production and that's also a measure we try to navigate through what is a good level of complete and sold remember that it it will never go to zero because that means likely that we have wrong pricing on the market If we continue on the P&L, the income statement, we had a very strong quarter and Q4 is traditionally a strong quarter for Bonava. And again, we show that this is a case also for 2025. We grow the net sales with 8% including currency and 15%, as Peter mentioned, excluding the currency effect. So we have about 85% of our income in Euro. And that's important to understand when you analyze the numbers in SEC for the business. That leaves us with adjusted for currency for the full year, about 2% growth, while minus 1% for the full year, including the currency. And we will come back to that later, what that means for 2026, because from a turnover perspective, that is, of course, on an equal level as 2024. What we already can see is improved margins and improved margins in ongoing projects, improved margin in also handed over projects is rapidly increasing for Bonava at the same time as we are lowering the overhead costs. Cost and sales and admin costs also substantially. So all in all, good margin improvements, which we expect to continue also this year in 2026 on the way up. If we look at the different markets or different business units we have of course a mixed picture depending on what market situation they come from and where they are right now in the development in this controlled growth phase. So you can say that in Germany and Baltics we have already recovered to good margins But with further upside for 2026, because we still have micro markets in both Germany and the Baltics, which have more to give. And so we want to also indicate that we are not done even in Germany and Baltics, even though the margins are already there. Then we have perhaps the greatest recovery during this year 25, and that is Sweden. Coming from negative figures to positive figures is a great milestone. We see a much better market than a year ago. Having said that, again, it's slower perhaps than anticipated, but still a great milestone. Outcome for 2025 and a lot of good outlooks for the year and the years to come. And the last market is Finland where we are in a kind of in Bunava and I will come back to that in a hibernation mode. Meaning that we are waiting for the market to return and meanwhile we secure a break-even result and a neutral cash. So we have of course taken all the measures we need to do in that market and is now expect that to turn around and I will come back to that in the finished deep dive in a couple of seconds. The last component is other, which consists of group functions, but also our Danish warranty business for the pruned market of Denmark. Bonava operated in a couple of years ago, and that can fluctuate a little bit from year to year, but the run rate is around 150 on full year in average. So that's also an indication you can have for the years to come. All in all, this then led to strong operating EBIT growth in the year, in the quarter and also in the margins, of course, as a consequence. And I can also mention that we do not disclose separate non-recurring items or items affecting comparability because they are on both sides and relatively small so we consider this to be part of the ongoing business ongoing operations and then it's some plus and some minuses but it's pretty neutral on on the full year level and the different impacts So if we then deep dive into the four different markets, we have first Germany. And I think the biggest highlight is really the margin growth we have seen this year. So 11.7% in the quarter and 10% operating EBIT in the full year of Germany. This is a consequence of systematic work in the German market and by our great colleagues down there in reducing cost, but also catching potential. And this is led by the engines of Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, those markets with further upside on some other city regions where we now see new potential and better future outlook in those markets. What's important is, of course, that we start more units in this market because the sales rate is still very high on 64%, even though it's a little bit lower than last year. The reason is that we are earlier in the production in Germany. We are earlier in that phase. So last year we had more close to completion to sell of compared to 2025 outcome then. But we do see promising signs for 2026 in the growth of sold units. And again, super strong margins and investor market improving. Sweden, I mentioned the turnaround, of course, from a low level. No doubt about that. But we see that we are growing rapidly and profitably and coming back to black numbers on the full year. And this is an important sign of recovery and it goes for all the different micro markets in Sweden. We see improvements and better signs than we did a year ago. And no doubt we are also then taking market shares from a smaller level in Sweden. An important upside potentially, you could say, for Bonala. In Finland, I mentioned the hibernation. I mentioned that we are securing cost and cash neutral operation while waiting for the market recovery to come. So it's still a low level of ongoing production and still low level of unsold completed from our side, but we can also see that the completed unsold from our competitors on that market has reduced. And that also indicates that the market is slowly, slowly coming back also in Finland. But it's about six to 12 months after the Swedish market, you could say, in that turnaround. That's what we expect. Strong margins still on the gross margins, but of course, very low volumes giving the flat results. Our shining star in Bonava, although it's a smaller market, is the Baltics where the growth is really tremendous and the margins are great. So we want to start more in the Baltics and we have also a land bank to support that, which I will come back to. So Riga and Vilnius have been super strong this year and already we see that 2026 will be similar. how ready are we then to start the 3 500 to 4 000 starts which we wanted our sweet spot in in bunava so we have about 24 000 in total in in the building rights where 32 percent are ready for start in 26 or 27. This indicates that we actually have the building rights to reach the volumes we need already in 2026. But remember, we don't want to start on speculation. We want to start when the market is there. So we are very careful and looking at the sales rate, we have pre-marketing and indications of each project we decide to start. And the different micro markets do not allow too rapid growth. It allows growth, but not too rapid growth. So this is then leading up to the indication for 2026, which Peter will talk more about later on. We also see that the split between the markets is pretty consistent. As we have indicated before, we think that we need to invest in new building rights, in particular in Germany and the Baltics, where the growth has been good in the last couple of years, but gradually so also perhaps in Sweden. And while in Finland, we are, of course, awaiting the market. And one way to do that is on off-balance building rights. So we give ourselves more options with flexible starts and also depending on when we need to start to happen to match the range we need to be in. And if we look at the rest of the income statement, which you didn't see in the previous picture, which is then, of course, net financial items tax and then net profit. And we are super happy to say that another milestone was reached with a positive net profit for the year. and a very strong Q4 in that aspect. So it's not only the operating EBIT which grow. We are also at the same time reducing the net financial items by having a lower net debt and lower average interest rates. This is something that we will continue to work in in 2026 to further decrease the net financial items as we still think that they are relatively high but improvements have been made in 2025 and this is something we will continue this year in 26. If we look at the cash flow this is the seventh quarter in a row now which we have a positive operating cash flow which is a very strong sign in particular if you consider the growth in ongoing production which requires a lot of working capital and a lot of build up in our different projects. So well managed during 2025 and this is something we have a continuous focus on so that we do not only grow profitably but also capital efficient to the extent possible. But 369 million SEK in the quarter and 823 million SEK in full year for operating cash flow. Net debt, and here you see the progress in net debt from Q1 2024, and where we had the 4.3 and now we have 2.8. And this is partly then, again, we have a currency effect in that, but even without that, it's worth to point out that we have consistently reduced the central debt, which is now down to two. and growing the proportion of the project financing, which is now 0.7 in this picture. But this is something we expect to continue that trend to grow the project financing to be closer to the assets. And that is part of Bonava's strategy to reduce the central and grow the project financing in a good way. Available liquidity is 1.4 billion as per end of December. And so again, pegging up for good investments to be made this year in new building rights where we need them. Last slide from my part is a balance sheet overview and I'll start by talking about the equity to properties held for future development which is the land bank and you can see that they are in line with our guidelines to be about equal and equity and the land bank. And remember, as we have said before, also that that land bank contains excess value, which we can then bring out when we develop the projects in that land bank. And the next part is, of course, a net project assets, which is a project assets minus advanced payments, which is in Germany, frequently used projects. payment method of course so and project asset minus advanced payments give the net project assets that's how we calculate that one the net debt how we calculate it is the interest bearing liabilities then minus cash and interest bearing assets in this aspect so so that gives a net debt and the ratio between those ones have gone from 1.4 to 1.8 as per end of december So we are financing more and more with equity and less and less with debt. Something that we also looking over the balance between those two items. But we of course needs to be above 1.0 that is given in our financial framework. Another KPI we are looking to a lot is equity ratio. And that is now up on 44%. So also progress also there. So strong balance sheet, good profitability, good margins, picking up for an increase and growth in net sales. Back to you, Peter.

Crystal clear, as we say. So let me wrap this presentation up before heading to the Q&A then. So as June said, I will talk a little bit about 2026 now when we have sort of talked about 2025 a lot. And we are again coming back to the range, the start range. The start is the leading edge to how our business will develop going forward. And I'm quite happy to see, I'm very happy to see, I should say, the efficiencies we get out even at the relative low level of net sales. So when we look into 2026, we have built out the guidance a little bit to help you because we have now taken the step from consolidation to controlled growth. And that will be really manifested big time in 2026. So we expect the net sales, the top line, to increase between 20 to 25 percent. And we expect the operating margin to between 8 to 9 percent. So when we talk about operational leverage and efficiencies here, we have started 2,800 projects in 2025. And it also depends on when we start those up. So we saw that the market was starting to be a little bit weaker in the second half of 2025. So gradual, a little bit slow down the startups because we do not want to see a sales rate that is too low. We want to have control over the costs, etc. So that is why we will then recognize a lower business volume that we have believed in before, which also then leads us to guide down the margin somewhat. This will still be a substantial improvement over the 2025 number we just have talked about. So all in all, we are heading with ambitions towards our 10% margin target. And we are also ambitiously trying to get into the range 3,500 to 4,000. But we will not do so without being in conflict with having good control. And quality goes before hitting the range. So wrapping up the year, we had a strong finish of the year. We are seeing a net sales growth that we have talked about really filtering through in the fourth quarter with a 15% like-for-like growth. We have continuously improved the operational performance, which also means that the forecast reliability and the operational reliability has been improved. dramatically and when we talk about all the things that we have done it's really making sure that we have a decentralized organization that knows exactly what their responsibilities are and we are seeing as a sort of as an infect of that also that the reliability has been improved. It also has caused the EBIT to be 6.7% for the full year, beating our full year forecast. And as I've just talked about, given how we look at the 2026, even in the context of a market which is a little bit slower than we would have wished for, we believe to see significant opportunities to improve both profitability and operational efficiency in 2026. So with that, Anna, should you take over from me now?

Yeah, I should. Thank you both for a very good presentation, very clear. And as I mentioned in the beginning, we will now open up for questions. So please type them online and I will do my very best to read them out. And I can see that Mattias Karlsson from DNB Kanega has written a few of them. So we will start with the first one. You highlight improving activity in Germany. What concrete signals are you seeing today that demand is shifting from stabilization to recovery? Is it inquiries, reservation rates, pricing acceptance or financing approvals?

It's a very good question. It's a combination of all three, actually. And I would say that, of course, generally in Germany, we see a quite slow market on the market as such. But I think where we really are pleased is with our regional exposure because we are We have a dominant position in Berlin. We have a very good position in North Rhine-Westfalen, which covers then Dortmund, Düsseldorf, Cologne. And we have a very good situation in Rhein-Main-Neckar. So all of those are the leading edge of the growth. So here we see sort of increasing leads, possibilities to start projects, possibilities to increase prices even. But I would say Germany as a general is also impacted by the fact that now when the whole of Europe will sort of sharpen up its competitiveness, sharpen up defense, sharpen up infrastructure and everything, it also means that they will lend more money by the state government bonds. And that has driven up the long-term interest rates. And in Germany, long-term interest rates has sort of a negative correlation, of course, with the consumers' likeliness of buying a home. So that has been in contrast, I would say. So we are seeing a market which is a little bit slow in total, but we like our regional exposure.

Yes. And how would you describe the current buyer behavior in Germany and the Nordics? Are customers primarily constrained by affordability, confidence or availability on financing? And how has that changed over the past six months?

I would say it's a very good question and I would say it's improved on all those three parameters of course as we talked about during the presentation the never-ending surprises on the political scene is creating a little bit hold back when it comes to looking brightly into the future but of course we are seeing the leads are growing and are growing quite consistently in Sweden and in the Baltics and in Finland even And that also comes down to the fact that we have a pent-up demand. The production level has been quite low. And we are seeing sort of an interest which is picking up. And I also think that the possibilities for households with the growing savings ratios and growing disposable income, the likelihood of also getting finances is also improving. Yeah.

And at the current market conditions, how do you think about the balance between protecting margin versus accelerating volumes? Are there segments where you would prioritize volume even at the slightly lower margins? It's a typical CFO. Yeah, I was thinking that. Sure.

I think again a good question but I think for us it's a balance so we need to have we need to secure the profitability we need to secure the sales rate that's number one in certain examples where we know that the margins are already there like in Riga and like in Vilnius we could accelerate already now. And Berlin is similar. But we don't want to jeopardize a market which is not fully recovered by speculations because that is like betting on a horse and we are not in that game.

And if we would comment the B2B margins, can we say anything about those?

Yeah, I mean, I think that the B2B margins are not that short of the B2C margins. I think that historically, it depends also on what market. It will lower, of course, the gross margin somewhat with an investor deal. On the other hand, the IRR, the payback because of the upfront cash investment the customer come with, that is still a very good option. So we want this 30%, 70%. balance to be intact between the investor deals and the consumer base. It's a mix which we are after there.

Yeah. And given that many peers have reduced starts materially over the past two years, do you see a risk of undersupply emerging in key markets like Germany? And how does that influence your willingness to ramp starts in 26, 27? Yeah.

I think we are already there when we are seeing a pent-up demand big time because we have been too low for many years now. But again, like the previous question alludes to, both the financials needs to be intact and the belief that the future is bright and shiny. So those two in combination is needed. And I think building on what Jun also said in his previous answer is also the fact that we are constantly adjusting sales prices. So margin again is one of the leading parameters here. We want to make sure that we have quality in our ongoing product portfolio.

Yeah. And more question about the starts. The starts were stronger in Q4. Should we view that as a catch-up effect or the beginning of a more sustained ramp-up? And what would need to happen in the market for starts to move meaningfully above current levels?

I think it's the first sign of ramp up. Let's rephrase it. We started already in Q4 2024 with a certain growth in starch. And now we have taken the next step. And we expect that to continue. But it's all these micro markets we are talking about. So we currently have... four or five super strong micro markets in of all our markets we operate in so we have an upside potential with the other micro markets which is has improved from a very low level but we still have a way to go and that will come gradually quarter by quarter in 2026.

And you were talking about the Baltics and the good margins there. Exactly. Do we want to start more projects? Yes. Yes. Short answer. Yes. Q4 margin progression was healthy. How much of this was driven by project mix and one-offs versus underlying execution? And how confident are you that the high single-digit EBIT margins are sustainable as volumes normalize?

I can start and then you can fill in. I think that the prerequisite for the high margins is, of course, coming from project margins. And project margins should be between 17 and 20% in Bonava. And that's where we are right now. But then we don't want to start a project where we risk of having lower sales or reduction in sales price compared to those normalized levels. So 17 to 20% in project margins, that's a start. Then, of course, we have still an underabsorption since we have pegged ourselves on 3,500 to 4,000 units. And that efficiency, which also Peter talked about, will come as we grow the volumes because we are confident that we have a scalable growth opportunity and efficiency to come with that one. I don't know if you want to add.

No, I think that is also why I alluded in my wrap-up of the presentation that even though we are on a fairly low level of top line now, we are still seeing pretty good efficiency numbers in terms of margins and the stability of the margins. is rock solid compared to where we came from so again it comes with starting projects come with increasing gradually the net sales and also then getting the under absorption down then the margins will fix its rest so we talk about a healthy level of operational leverage.

And you were talking about the net debt and there were a question here about the net debt continues to decrease. How should we think about the level going forward? Refinancing risk and funding costs over the next 12 to 24 months? And do you see scope for materially lower average funding costs at the market normalize?

refinancing opportunity I would say not refinancing risk and of course we are in a totally different situation than we were a couple of years ago when we had the current financing package and this is something we have in focus for 2026 no doubt and I think that there are as I mentioned also in the presentation a big opportunity to reduce and also grow the local project financing substantially. But that growth is then in relation to the active project assets and that's so important as well.

And the last question here from Mattias. Looking beyond 2025, what does a normalized earnings year look for Bonava in your view? And what are the key external factors that should accelerate or delay reaching that level?

Well, I can start and you can correct me if I'm wrong then. But I think that 10% operating margin target is where we would like to see the business coming in a not too distant future. We are putting out a balance guidance for 26% between 8% and 9%. But of course, we will do everything we can to make sure that we get to the 10%. But we need to start projects. We need to see the continuous increase in the margin in the starts. And that will also take care of the margin. So if we then have the 17 to 20 percent and then we have a selling an admin in terms of four to five percent. And mind you, we have done all the cost savings. So we will continue to trim, but we have done already a lot of action. So that will filter through then in a margin target of 10% or more.

Nothing to add.

No, and I don't see any more questions here in the chat. But if you would rack this up, what are you especially proud of that we have accomplished during the year?

I think as a team, as the whole Bonava team and with the support of our shareholders and also banks, etc., we have done a tremendous turnaround. I'm not saying that we are done with the turnaround, but we have taken material steps in the turnaround. And I'm also very proud of the level of operational control we have and the reliability we have. So I feel that we have taken the next very important steps for Bonava to be heading towards the stars.

And Johan, you have been here a year now. What do you take with you from this year?

No, but it's a predictability, two, profitable growth, and three, the upside potential for the years to come. We have ticked all the boxes, and that's why I look at the future with confidence.

Good. So with that, we would like to thank you all for listening. And I would like to highlight that we will publish our annual report on the 18th of March. And we have an annual general meeting at the 22nd of April. So stay tuned for that. And thank you all. And goodbye.