Bonava AB (publ)

Good morning, everyone, and a very warm welcome to the presentation of Bonava's third quarter 2025. My name is Anna Falk-Sylund, and I am head of investor relations here at Bonava. It has been an eventful quarter with many new projects initiated, a complete valuation of our land bank, and several other positive developments. And we are sitting here in the still pretty dark Stockholm and with me here today to take you through the highlights of this report are our president and CEO, Peter Wallin, and our deputy CEO and CFO, Jung Jonsson. After their presentation, we will open up for questions. As always, you can ask questions via the telephone conference by pressing pound key five, or you can submit them online. And you are welcome to start typing your questions already now. So with that short introduction, I leave the word over to you, Peter.

Thank you so much, Anna. And good morning, everyone. Resting our eyes on a summer, sunny Stockholm and the product treadmill, which we started now in the third quarter. And as Anna said, it's been an eventful quarter. So we started off with the market highlights. Again, this seems like reiterating what we stated in the second quarter, but our markets are supported by the lower interest rates, and we have seen further reduction during the third quarter. The disposable income for the households is continuing to strengthen, and there is a pent-up demand for housing, which all of it then supports the improvement continuously of the market. We are seeing an increasing demand from customers, but it does still take some time to convert from booking and reservation to binding contracts. And as you all know, we are only reporting binding contracts in our sales rates. We are seeing an increased activity in the investor segment, and we are seeing a renewed interest in new B2Bs. So we are... We are having a good pipeline for future closing, including the fourth quarter. However, we do see that after the summer on the margin, we are seeing somewhat higher uncertainty of the pickup of the market. So everything that is happening around us on the political stage, of course, has created a headwind. for a quicker and broader market improvement. If we look into our trading, we are increasing the units in ongoing production, and we are now over 3,800 with a binding sales rate of 57%. And we believe that this, again, underlines the fact that we are having a controlled growth rate. So we are not starting anything if we are not confirming costs and sales and having the right team in place. We are gradually improving now the operating EBIT margin, so it's sort of times three in improvement here to 6.8%. And on a rolling 12-month basis, we are at 5.9%. As per normal in the third quarter, we do a valuation of our land bank, and the excess value has increased from 4.6 billion to 5.3 billion at the end of September. And we are maintaining our solid financial position. Jun will be going through this in detail. And when we look into our 2025 guidance, we are increasing that to about 6%. So if we take a quick view on the started projects, and we are starting up on the left-hand corner in Stockholm with Fjärilshusen, we are seeing a very strong demand for single-family housing in Sweden. And we have started the third phase of Fjärilshusen, which is north of Stockholm city center. Turning then on the right-hand side, the Baltic market is improving very well, and then the Riga market is very strong, so we started a project, Prusio, with 70 units for consumers. And then continuing down to Renata. Finally, we are starting a B2C project in Helsinki, Finland, and this is in a very nice location in Helsinki, close to the water. And we have a very strong interest for this project. And as we have also described in the report, we will convert the booking agreements to sales contracts during the fourth quarter in this project. And last but not least, our biggest market, Germany. Again, a very strong performance in our most important region, Berlin, in Germany, where we started a product gout and start cold source with the 50 units for consumers. So that's a little bit of the snapshot of the 708 production starts that we have reported in the third quarter. What we also have done during the third quarter, we were very quick off the mark as a developer in becoming the first residential developer on confirming the science-based targets and the initiative. So we reconfirm this, and as we are improving our way of measuring our carbon footprint, We have developed lifecycle assessment, the LCAs, for all the projects. And this will be a very important part on how we can drive becoming more sustainable when it comes to our production. So this is very important for us, and it's important for the society we work in, and it's important for our customers. So with that, Jun, I hand over the word to you.

Peter, the third quarter has indeed showed further progress for Bonava towards higher turnover and better margins. As Peter mentioned, we currently have 3,836 units in ongoing production as per end of September. Out of these, 74% comes from B2C, our consumer business, with a significant growth year on year, and 26% from B2B, our investor business, where we expect increased activity again already in Q4. The proportions of those two business types have an effect on the sales rate in the actual period, as a new B2B project typically have 100% sales rate from start. But as mentioned, we have several projects in B2B in the pipeline for the coming quarter, and we are confident that we have a high sales rate in all new productions, which is one of the cornerstones in the controlled growth phase we are constantly talking about in Bonava. Another sign of our robust model is our constantly decreasing number of completed unsold units, which after the quarter amounts to only 274 units. Bunava has less than 200 units left completed prior to Q3, as a further 144 of these were sold. The 274 equals 7% of the ongoing production, and we think this is now on a healthy level. But we may still decrease this number somewhat in Q4 to release further liquidity as needed. If we look at the total performance for the group, I mentioned the growth in net sales in the beginning, which amounts to 10% compared to Q3 last year. That growth will now continue as we build up units in production with a high sales rate. The operating gross margin ended at 13.8% and operating EBIT margin on 6.8% in the quarter. This is a big improvement compared to last year, coming from a gradually improved market in combination with the cost reduction program performed in the last years. Year-to-date, the operating EBIT margin is 5.2%, and last 12 months, it is 5.9%, as Peter also mentioned. And as Peter indicated, this gives us confidence in narrowing the guidance for the full year to 6%. If we look at the EBIT margin by market, next to the picture of this great project in Riga, the Blumendal's Mayas, we can conclude that all markets improve. But where Germany and the Baltics already have reached close to desired profit levels, Sweden and Finland are still in the early build-up phase with a slow but steady recovery for Bonava. If we deep dive in the different markets, starting with our biggest market, Germany, we see a growth in net sales of 6% together with improved margins. 10% in the quarter in EBIT margin and 9% in the last 12 months is a very strong contribution. However, we believe that also Germany has several micro markets which are recovering from lower levels. and with potential going into 2026 to improve further. And as previously mentioned, the investor sales were low in the quarter, but it's expected to contribute further in Q4. We had a 15 million SEK write-down in the German land bank in the quarter, and this is fully included in the operating results you see on this picture, as we believe smaller adjustments like this are part of normal business. A number of started and sold units are in balance year-to-date. And on the picture, you can see our great Lichtenrader project in Berlin. If we then go to our Swedish business, the number of started and sold units are increasing rapidly from lower levels. The project Fredman in Häggestein Axelsberg was started in the quarter, and this is the project you can see on the picture. And the net sales grew 90% in the quarter, and the margins improved compared to last year. Note in this business unit that part of the profit, around 20 million SEK in EBIT effect in the quarter, comes from sale of land in Gothenburg. The target for the year is to start projects with good sales and reservation levels in a controlled way and to get back to operating profit for the full year. Moving on to Finland, we have 31% growth in net sales and again improved margins, but from a very low level. And similar to Sweden, we expect a small profit for the full year, But the most important sign of recovery in this market is that we started two great projects in Q3 with high reservation levels, which will be converted to sales in the coming quarters. The one on the picture is Tulekello 3, and the other a great project called Renata, which you heard Peter describe before. And the cost levels are kept low as the market slowly returns. The investor business also looks more promising for the coming quarters in Finland. Ending the market update with the Baltic states, and they are performing very, very strong. 10% growth in net sales is complemented again with higher margins, like in the other markets. A control cost base during growth, and consequently a strong 14% EBIT margin in the quarter, and 10% in the last 12 months. Started and sold units continue to grow rapidly, driven by Regan Vilnius, but also Tallinn's sign of recovery, where this project picture comes from, the product called SACO. Our B2M projects continue to be well managed and with high leasing rates. If we looked at the building rights portfolio, we see a planned decrease compared to last year, and the total is now estimated to 24,800 split across the regions. I repeat my message from previous quarterly reports that we expect to continue the replenishment of land bank and building rights in the regions where this is consumed fast, such as, for example, Berlin and Riga. Depending on the pace of growth in the markets, we also have options in project storage, but this requires constant and efficient management of our most important asset for future profits, our land bank. On balance as well as off balance, and no dramatic changes in distribution of the building rights. In Q3 every year we do an evaluation of our land bank, which to an extent is also tested by external partners, where a second opinion gives more confidence in both the current book values and expected future market values. You may recall that we had a write-down in Germany of land of 15 million SEK in the quarter, which was the only adjustments made in this review for 2025, indicating that our book values are on the right levels. And we also had a profit from sale of land in Sweden of plus 20 million SEK, and hence the net effect of the land for the quarter was plus 5 million SEK for the group total. Both these effects have taken over the operating result, and not as items affecting comparability, as we believe it is part of normal business, unlike the larger structural write-downs in previous years, triggered by an exceptionally weak market back then. The surplus value of this analysis equals 5.3 billion SEK as per end of the September this year. This is the 700 million SEK higher than last year, mainly as a result of improved future project margins. Net financial items also continue to improve every quarter from lower base rates in combination with continuous low net debt. This resulted in positive net profit for the period. and indicates a vital shift also in total return of Bonava to positive net profit contribution in the quarter. Operating cash flow is positive in the quarter also, with 140 million thick and year-to-date supported by sales of completed unsold, I talked about, and profit generation. However, as indicated in previous quarters, our project activity level is growing very fast, which requires both increased investments and working capital during the build-up phase in late 25 going into 26. Also note in this table that EBITDA in our cash flow comes from the completed contract accounting method where we have a delay in recognition as it's based on handed over units. Net debt amounts to 3.1 where we have been stable and same level for the last year. We have continued to amortize central debt while increasing local project financing according to plan. Market conditions for this have improved, but for further growth, this development needs to continue, and we do not expect the net debt to decrease further during 2026, rather the opposite, as the growth continues and requires capital. The available liquidity was 1.3 billion SEK in Q3. Last but not least, here is an overview of our financial framework ratios, where we continue to be well above our guidelines. The equity to asset ratio was 41%, and the net project asset value over net debt was as high as 1.6 times, again indicating the need of further project financing to support our controlled growth into 26 and beyond. Equity is bigger than the land bank, and the total balance sheet amounts to 16.7 billion SEK. And again, I want to point out that this, unlike some of our competitors who have different definitions, include also, for example, co-op housing companies in our ownership. And it's calculated according to IFRS. That's what we show on this picture. The advanced payments we receive in our German business model keeps our cash flow strong. With that, back to you, Peter.

Thank you very much, John. Excellent presentation, and we continue with wrapping this presentation up. So as we are working with our increased starts, and we are also wrapping up the production of our portfolio, this will result in improving sales growth going forward quarter over quarter. And this will, of course, also mean that we are increasing the net sales and margins. And I would also like to say that I'm very, very happy to see the increased net sales and margin in all of our business units contributing to a strong result for the third quarter. As we have stated, we are increasing the guidance of the operating EBIT to about 6% in 2005. And when we look into 2026, we are maintaining our 10% margin target for that. We do add that the slower anticipated market recovery could mean that we are not starting up as much as we could, because we would like to maintain a strong sales rate. And this could impact our ability then to work up enough revenues during 26, because that is the financial year we have set that target for. But we know what to aim for, and we will get there. It could be one or two quarters delay maximum. But we are maintaining our targets now for 10% for 26%. And with that, Anna, we turn over to questions.

Thank you. And I think that we have some technical issues, so I'm not sure that anyone can hear us right now. Now they can hear through the phone, so we will try to see if we can ask questions. So if you are participating through the phone conference, you can press pound key five and ask your questions. And if you wish to withdraw your question, you can press And you can also submit your questions online and I will read them out. So let's see, do I have anyone on the phone? No one on the phone at the moment. And we have no message here soon. But we are talking about an increasing type of investor deals. Can we elaborate why they are important to us?

history of Bonava, we have been at the level of around 30% of B2B businesses in the total portfolio. That means also that that reduces the overall risk when we start the development of new areas. Of course, we get a very strong stable margin and a good stable cash flow from those projects. It's a very good buffer to have when we are looking at how to divide. But also we are seeing now a stronger and stronger demand for investor projects. So it's also a way of taking up the demand and the changes of demand in the marketplace.

And we are talking about Germany. Do we see any interest in the other markets?

When I talk about the pipeline for the fourth quarter, I also include Sweden and Finland.

And we have seen a flat net debt during the quarters. Can we elaborate? Do you think it will stay on that level or will the composition of the debt change forward?

Definitely change. I think that to keep a low net debt is not targeting itself. It's really the relations between ongoing production and the net debt. And I think that the project financing, as I mentioned in the report as well, will continue to grow.

And for all you listening and watching us, I heard that we have had some technical issues, but I hope that you can hear us now. So if you wish to ask questions through the phone conference, you can press pound key five and ask them. And you can also submit your questions online and I will read them out. And I will continue to ask some questions. The Swedish market, what can we say about that in a quarter?

I think, I mean, we see clear signs of recovery. It is still the case that we need to be selective in what projects we start and with sufficient demand in that local micro market. But we see clear signs of recovery also this week.

Yeah, and nothing on the phone conference, nothing here. Then I think we will wrap this up. And thank you all for listening and have a nice day.