2/20/2025

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Hi and welcome everyone to this Q4 presentation by Catena. Here is the agenda for today. A short summary, a business overview and a business update, followed by sustainability, the finance and a short takeaway before we opening up for Q&A. Next slide, please. Let's dive into the summary of the Q4 of 2024 report. where we report 21% increase in rental income ended up at 2,193,000,000 SEK driven by acquisitions, projects, and by our CPI-linked contracts. Profit from property management increased by 14% in total, and per share it was up to 22.59 SEK per share. Adjusted for the value change in the property value in our joint venture, we have an increase in income from property management per share with almost 8%. We report an increase in NRV per share up to 425 SEC. The balance sheet remains very solid with an LTV at 38.4%. 2024 has been a record year in terms of the investment volume totaling 11 billion SEK and a year where Catena made a major footprint in Denmark. Those investments, in combination with successful equity raises and attractive financing, has significantly boosted the earnings capacity per share. So all in all, we are comfortable to generate a strong cash flow going forward. And as the headline says, a very strong performance and as always with a long-term focus. Next slide, please. Next slide. The transaction market seemed to pick up at the end of 2024, but activity has slowed down somewhat, which can certainly be explained by the volatility of the interest rates and the uncertain geopolitical situation. With that said, we are looking into potential acquisitions and hope to continue our growth journey in 2025. The numbers for e-commerce for 2024 show growth for the first time in three years. The growth was 5% compared to 2023. And the segments that shown the strongest numbers are pharmacy, fashion and food products. Regarding new developments, we can summarize it to that the discussions take longer time. And we thought that we would have some new projects to present. before year end, but for various reasons, we did not succeed. We have LOI signed in one case, but it is challenges with the ground conditions. And in another case, there are challenges with natural values. However, the situation is somewhat brighter now than before the turn of the year. So we are fighting on and have full focus to be able to sign new construction projects in the coming quarters. Lastly, as far as we know and what we have heard, there is the same situation regarding all the vacancies around the Stockholm, Mälardalen and the Jönköping area as in previous quarter. Next slide, please. Looking into the customer base, there has been a major change regarding the top 10 customers in 2024. After the transactions during This year, DSV is our biggest customer, standing for 20% of our contractual value. Logistics and transport has at the same time increased as a segment that is now standing for 52% of the contractual value. Next slide, please. A look at our portfolio shows that the value has increased by almost 35% compared to the Q4 2023. Both Denmark and South have taken big leaps in terms of value during the year as a result of the acquisitions. Next slide, please. Next slide for the business update. We have presented this project with El Giganten before, but would like to mention it again as we received a nice award during Q4 when the project was named Logistic Establishment of the Year in Sweden. El Giganten has been up and running since the summer with its operations on the approximately 90,000 square meters. Next slide, please. The Ramlösa project in Helsingborg is progressing and we completed one of the buildings in 2024. A large high bay warehouse is under construction and is expected to be completed in Q1 2026. when the waste is also expected to move in. The third building is being designed at this time, and here we expect to submit the building permit shortly. Next slide, please. One of our most recently completed projects in Jönköping, where we welcome Västergruppen on 50% of the surface as a tenant to the state-of-the-art logistic warehouse constructed in Luleå, frame, and so it's also the high bay part which includes a crane warehouse automation. From the turn of the year, both Norway's and Mestergruppen operate in the facility. Next slide, please. Our most recently presented new construction project is at Mappen 4 in Linköping, where we will build a new logistic facility for SunSac. The total area will be about 10,000 square meters and will be certified according to Brigham Excellent. SunSec will move in in Q4, 2026. Next slide. Our ongoing project portfolio totals to around 1.6 billion SEC for 800 million is remaining investments. When all is completed, we will add another 130,000 square meters to the portfolio. And the yield on cost is around 7%. And for new projects, we are also aiming for around 7%. Next slide, please. With regards to our land bank, there are no updates and the processes for getting zoning plans are ongoing. But worth mentioning, here is a great potential in the long run to continue growing with profitable new construction projects on our land bank. Next slide, please. Looking at our leasing operations, our net leasing was plus eight millions for the quarter and plus 74 millions during 2024. Our whale is now at 6.7 years and the lifting ratio is almost at 97%. Next slide for some sustainability. The environmentally certified area is now at 46% and will increase further as projects and new acquisitions that are in the process of being certified is finalized. The Scoop 3 is at a high level compared to last year due to finalizing many big projects. We report the Scoop 3 when the buildings are completed, which means that the Scoop 3 will increase once projects are finalized. We work with carbon dioxide budgets in all our projects to limit the CO2 emissions. And we continue to maintain a high level of EU taxonomy alignment, for example, our CAPEX at 93%. Here is a big difference compared to the number in the Q3 report, which explains that we did not have all the documents in place at that time. But now we are confident that all the acquisitions made during 2024 are green. Produced energy from solar panels increased 24% since last year and reached almost 10,000 megawatt hour. And we achieved EPRA goal for sustainability reporting. And now over to David for some financial updates and the next slide.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Jörgen. On this slide, we showcase our consistent earnings growth, highlighting improvements across rental income, net operating surplus, and profit from property management. During the year, rental income increased by 21%, reaching 843 crowns per square meters, with growth driven by indexations, lease negotiations, and overall portfolio improvements. Net operating income grew by 24% and profit from property management rose by 14%. Our earnings capacity now indicates a projected increase of approximately 15% in profit from property management compared to one year ago, highlighting continued growth. Despite market turbulence over the last couple of years, driven by rising interest rates and higher inflation, we have continued to deliver increased revenues with strong profitability, which highlights our ability to navigate challenges and maintain performance. Next slide. This slide highlights the key drivers behind our rental income growth and how our diversified approach continues to create value. Rental income increased through multiple channels. M&A activities contributed 11%. Project development added 3.3%. And like-for-like growth reached 7.6%. Like-for-like performance has been strong both throughout the year and in the last quarter. While the market remains cautious compared to a few years ago, there are pockets for positive rental adjustments in certain areas. Property sales had a minor impact, reducing income by 0.6%. A key strength of our business model is our ability to shift capital allocation between acquisitions and project development, allowing us to focus on where we see the greatest value creation opportunities. In summary, our balanced growth strategy, combining acquisitions, development and operational improvements continues to drive value. Going over to next slide. Let's take a closer look at how our capital structure has evolved and how we are positioning ourselves going forward. Our equity base has continued to strengthen, supported by two successful share issues of 5.1 billion and retained earnings from our disciplined operations. This has contributed to a solid capital structure while maintaining a healthy equity ratio. We remain committed to a balanced approach, leveraging the balance sheet to support growth while safeguarding financial resilience through strong solvency levels. Turning to net reinstatement value per share, our NRV has reached 425 crowns per share, and this reflects the value we continue to build for our shareholders. In summary, our capital measures during 2024 through equity strengthening, disciplined dividend distribution, and solid earnings position us well to seize opportunities while maintaining robust financial health. And next slide. Let's walk through our key financial metrics as well, which highlight our disciplined leverage and commitment to sustainability as well. Our net debt EBITDA stands at 7.9 times, well below our policy limit of nine times, reflecting solid earnings relative to debt levels. The interest coverage ratio is at 3.6 times, comfortably above our policy targets of two times. demonstrating strong capacity to cover interest payments. With a loan-to-value of close to 38%, well below our 50% policy limit, we maintain a prudent leverage profile. Our secured loan-to-value close to 30% and the unencumbered assets ratio stands at 4.3 times, reflecting a robust and flexible asset base that enhances our financing options going forward. Sustainability is integrated into our financing as well. Currently, 70% of our debt is considered green, surpassing our 2025 target of 50%. In summary, our financial position is strong with all key metrics well within policy and covenant limits. Next slide, please. On this slide, we focus on our proactive approach to debt management and liquidity. In Q4, we successfully refinanced 3.3 billion, demonstrating continued market confidence in our business model. Additionally, we replaced our previous 600 million revolving credit facility with the new 750 million facility on improved terms, enhancing our funding flexibility. Our capital maturity profile is well balanced and diversified, reflecting a prudent approach to risk management. With liquid funds and commitments totaling 3.7 billion, we maintain a strong liquidity buffer, keeping our liquidity ratio well above one time. Our effective liquidity management strategy delivered 57 million in interest income for the year, with 30 million earned during Q4 an example of how we maximize returns from available resources. Next slide, please. On this slide, we highlight our proactive interest risk management strengthens financial stability amid shifting market conditions. The Nordic region is well positioned with central banks prioritizing economic support in an uncertain inflation environment. In Q4, we reduced our average cost of debt by 30 basis points to 3.4%, driven by lower risk premiums and market rate cuts. And Catena has never before been able to source capital as cheap as we do right now if we're looking for new sources of funding. And there's a significant portion of our existing debt that we should be able to get cheaper in the future. We also added 250 million in interest rate swaps at 1.9% fixed rate with the three-year average term, enhancing cost predictability. With 61% of our interest exposure fixed on balance day, we have effectively reduced sensitivity to rate fluctuations, supporting earnings stability. Next slide, and handing back over to you, Jörgen.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Thank you, David. Our capital deployment divided into acquisitions of $8.6 billion with the large property in Horsens in Denmark, the sale and leaseback with DSV that came in the last day in the Q3, and also acquisitions from previous quarters, among others, Jan Holmen, south of Copenhagen, and the other two sale and leaseback transactions with DSV in Helsingborg and Landskrona, totaling to eight new properties. During the year, we divested four properties located in Brønby, Denmark, two in Kristianstad, southern part of Sweden, and a smaller one in Gothenburg, totaling to almost 700 millions. Development capex ended at 2.5 billion. These investments related, among others, to our large ongoing project with Elgigant in Jönköping, which were finalized during Q2, and the project in Stigamo, also in Jönköping, to no waste. and a large project at Ramlösa in Helsingborg. So total capex for the year rounded off to 11 billion SEK. Next slide, please. Property values stayed stable and ended up the period with a positive value change of 114 million SEK, which correlates to 0.3% of the total portfolio before adjustments. The average weighted valuation yield exit yield for the portfolio is at 5.9% by the end of the period. And the EPRANET initial yield came in to 5.5%. 95% of our portfolio has been externally evaluated during 2024. And next slide, please. And then we'll have our takeaways from today. And for the first, Catena closes a year that can be summarized with very strong growth. And secondly, the earnings capacity for 2025 that we present in the report is 15% higher per share compared to one year ago. And the third and last point is with our balance sheet in combination with strong cash flow, we have very, very good conditions to continue our growth journey. And with that said, we open up for Q&A. Please.

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from John Earfelt from Kepler Chevro. Please go ahead.

speaker
John Earfelt
Analyst, Kepler Chevro

Okay, thanks. Good morning. And I'm just starting to kick off by your bank margins. Could you comment on what you have currently and what you probably could expect in the future, as you mentioned that you're probably going to get some cheap financing going forward?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Yeah, that's a good question. I think that sort of reflects the long-term trajectory of Catena over the last five years or so. I won't get into specific details, but I could say that I think what we do expect is looking for five-year commitments today, I would expect to be somewhere between 130 and 150. 40 basis points, somewhere like that. And going to the capital market, we would probably see even lower margins. And for Catena, that's a big leap forward, a big positive leap forward.

speaker
John Earfelt
Analyst, Kepler Chevro

Okay. Thanks. Our next question regards your earnings capacity. As the financial income swings up and down between quarters, what kind of level from the financial income do you include in the financial net in your earnings capacity?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's a relevant question. Usually we look at our cash position over the last couple of years and we make an assessment of how much money we expect to have during a year. The reason it's been shifting over the last two years, I would say we have had lots of share issues, new share issues, which has meant we have stayed with an oversupply of cash. But usually you could say that we expect to have somewhere between 300 and 500 millions in cash in a normal year.

speaker
John Earfelt
Analyst, Kepler Chevro

Okay. Great. And then... As you mentioned here, the projects, it's a little bit harder to convince the customers to sign on. What kind of level for your investments do you expect for this year? Also, if you could comment on 2026.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

That's a good question, but it's very hard to mention any specific numbers. We're looking into some acquisitions cases, and we are also working with new projects. But I mean, we have a strong balance sheet, a very low LTV. There is a headroom for quite many billions to invest. And that depends when the opportunities arise. So I can't give you any more specific than that.

speaker
John Earfelt
Analyst, Kepler Chevro

Okay, my final question really regards to your acquisitions capabilities. You mentioned here 38% LTV, but what could a kind of level of LTV level are you happy to deliver or to have?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thank you.

speaker
John Earfelt
Analyst, Kepler Chevro

Regarding your acquisitions.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's understood, Jan. The answer is, I think, I believe, is pretty much the same what we have told the market over the last 12 months, at least. I would say around 45% is what we aim for. If we end up at 45%, I would expect that we also stay pretty much closer just under the nine times of net debt to EBITDA as well. But, of course, that depends on the terms of the acquisitions, of course, but that's the way you could look at it.

speaker
John Earfelt
Analyst, Kepler Chevro

Okay. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

The next question comes from Kevan Shirvanpur from SEB. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kevan Shirvanpur
Analyst, SEB

Thank you and good morning. I could maybe start with a follow-up question on the development capex. So you don't really give a figure for the whole year, but could you maybe say what will the development capex for 2025 be as it stands now in your current projects? Because I note that one of your projects has been put on hold. So I would assume that there will be no investments in the Herrida project.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Good morning, Kevin. That's correct. We don't expect that there will be any success with Trafikverket in the coming year about that one. Otherwise, as I said about the Ramlösa project, We will work on that. We will not spend all the money during 2025. And then the sunset is, I mean, you can divide it in two years. That's roughly what we will spend about in the existing pipeline.

speaker
Kevan Shirvanpur
Analyst, SEB

Okay, so that's maybe about 500 million or so roughly in the year. Yes, and I have also another question regarding, you said that you have an LOI for a new project. Could you say anything about the size of this project?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Yeah, I can say it's about 30,000 square meters, but I can't mention any financial figures about it.

speaker
Kevan Shirvanpur
Analyst, SEB

Okay, good. And also, another question. You mentioned that you have a one-off in the net financials of 5 million. Could you maybe elaborate what that is due to?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Yes. Thank you for the question. Of course, you could say it's it's divided in three parts. You could say approximately two million refers to temporarily higher costs related to the acquisition of Mossway, the Danish acquisition. The second part is simply an accounting technical measure of close to two million. which is related to the acquisition of Bokasjö and is related to the projects that we still wait for completion and sale. So that's a temporary effect and only an accounting technical measure. This will balance once these projects are completed and sold. And then you have... Also, the third parties dissolved fees due to early repaid loans.

speaker
Kevan Shirvanpur
Analyst, SEB

Okay, good. And I also have one final question, and that is related to the central administration costs. So they were up by 3 million, so 70 million in the quarter. And just look at the earnings capacity. So it implies 13.7 million per quarter. Does the central admin contain any type of extraordinary fee or one-off or anything else?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Yeah, that's a good question. There are also some reservations because of a colleague who ended the career here. So we have to to reservate some money there. There are also been some extra costs regarding the two equity raises. Normally, we have one per year. This year, we have two. Somehow, there are reporting rules that more or less one million has to be in the P&L. Otherwise, the costs are activated, so to speak.

speaker
Kevan Shirvanpur
Analyst, SEB

Okay, so adjusted. Would you say that it's more in line with last year, Dan?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Correct.

speaker
Kevan Shirvanpur
Analyst, SEB

Okay, good. Those were my questions. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Thanks.

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

The next question comes from John Vuong from Van Lanshot Kempen. Please go ahead.

speaker
John Vuong
Analyst, Van Lanshot Kempen

Hey, good morning, team. I think your European logistics pairs are talking a lot about being close to the next flexion point in terms of demand. At the same time, you're talking about that these dialogues are still taking long, but at the same time, you also have some, oh, issues with potential pre-letting. Could you comment on what you're now actually seeing in the market and how that has compared to last quarter?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Yeah. Good morning, John. Good question. I tried to elaborate a bit more about it. But as I said before, there are some more activities in the dialogues with potential customers now than before Christmas. But it's not that it's urgent for the customers to sign. It's planning for the long run. And we have, as you know, long-term relationship with customers. So we are not stressed in terms of time. There is also another dynamic in the market with all the oversupply there is. So, of course, customers can look into various opportunities. That is not the same case as it was during the pandemic. What we also see is that while the e-commerce has taken off again, as I said, 5% uplift compared to 2023. We still wait for the consumption to kick off. I mean, the Swedish households, they have more money now. They pay lower interest rates. They have had some easements in the taxes as well. But I think we have to wait some more quarters before the consumption kicks off better again, so to speak. So it's a wait and see market. But on the other hand, It doesn't reflect in our vacancy rates. They are at the same level. We don't see that there will be any dramatic changes during 2025. And also, we said before the land bank we have, it's fantastic. Sooner or later, we will present projects on it. But right now, it takes time.

speaker
John Vuong
Analyst, Van Lanshot Kempen

Okay, very clear. Just on the oversupply, I think you previously mentioned that these are on high watermark asking rents. So just now compared to underwriting for projects that you could start in a similar region.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

There are still the spec developers, they still ask for high rent levels. Maybe they offer some discounts in the beginning. But if we were about to start off, kick off a new project in the same regions, we can definitely compete with the rent levels.

speaker
John Vuong
Analyst, Van Lanshot Kempen

Okay, that's very clear. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

The next question comes from Emil Ekholm from Pareto Securities. Please go ahead.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Yes, hi, morning. Thanks for taking my question. I missed a question from Kevian, and maybe this is what you discussed, but you came in a little bit higher than our estimates on net interest in this quarter. Can you say anything about how much of the financial costs that are accrual or borrowing costs, or is this apart from the 5 million in one house that you had?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, if you're referring to the non-recurring items, is that your question, Emil?

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I just answered the questions earlier, but that's perfectly fine, Emil. So there are three parts, you could say. The first part is approximately 2 million refers to temporarily higher costs related to the acquisition in Denmark. And secondly, we have an accounting technical measure of close to two million, which is related to the acquisition where we await projects to be completed and sold. So that's a temporarily temporary effect. This will balance out once the projects are completed and sold. And then finally, the third part is dissolved fees due to early repaid loans.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay, that's perfect. And do you have any number on recurring items for accruals and borrowing costs?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Well, can you elaborate what exactly you are looking for?

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Yeah, I guess that you have some accruals each quarter referring to that you write off during the tenure, I expect. Can you say anything about that run rate level?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

No, no specific numbers, no.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay, thanks. Dan, we're more than half through Q1 now. Can you give any guidance on net listings so far in 2025?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

I'm sorry, we have trouble hearing you, Emil. Could you please speak up somewhat?

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Sorry. Okay, maybe is this better? Yeah, that's better. Thank you. Ah, perfect, thanks. My headphones are, I guess, not working. Yeah, so we're more than half through Q1. Can you give any guidance on net letting so far in 2025?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

No, not more than... I mean, it's fair to assume if there have been any dramatic changes or any major defaults by customers, we have told the market that. So... Otherwise, you have to wait and see to the next report. But I also said before that we don't expect any dramatic changes during 2025. Okay, that's clear.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Thanks. And in 2025, you have 184 million in lease value debt matures. What's your expectations on rental uplifts in these discussions?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Could be in some cases we can see a potential, but I mean, overall, I think we are pretty much on the market rents. It could be some up and maybe some down, but confident with the rent level in generally speaking in our portfolio.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay, that's clear. And also referring to earnings capacity, have you included any contributions from projects that are currently ongoing? Or can we expect a boost as Socket 4 is completed this year?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

In the earnings capacity, those projects that will be finalized during the year, they are in the earnings capacity for that ratio of the year that they are where we have the rent, so to speak.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay, that's clear. And lastly, you have around 1 billion in cash. You touched upon this a little bit earlier, but how do you expect to use them in the near term?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's a very good question. It's a very relevant question. I think we always view our liquidity position as positive. at least for the last couple of years as a strategic resource, especially now in times of market uncertainty. And we prefer to stay ahead, being swift about potential transactions. But with that said, we always carefully consider our approach going forward on capital structure. There are interesting discussions ongoing, so I'm pretty confident we will make good use of the money.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

That's perfect. Thank you. One more question as well. We saw now in January that Katman and Panatoni acquired a property in Mölnäcke from Mitsubishi, and they are set to develop for the 3,000-square-meter. They're on speculation. Is this a deal that you had looked into and considered?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Yeah, I can just comment that we looked into that, but we didn't use the same calculator as they did.

speaker
Emil Ekholm
Analyst, Pareto Securities

Okay. That's very clear. That was all for me.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Thank you. Thanks. Thanks, Emil.

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

The next question comes from Erik Granström from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

speaker
Erik Granström
Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you very much, and good morning, Jörgen and David. Could I just ask you to remind us about the Rom Løsa project in Helsingborg? How do you view the occupancy rate there with the contract of no waste? Because occupancy went up seven percentage point quarter over quarter, but it seems strange that you would have 93% still to be let.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

In the Ramla project, we just have signed a smaller part of it, but it's an ongoing project. One building finalized at the end of 2024. The other ones are ongoing, and we have to come back during the coming quarters with an update. We are also in ongoing discussions with No Waste, too. and to clarify a bit more for the market.

speaker
Erik Granström
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, but it is, I mean, when you first press released the project, there was a cooperation between you and No Ways to develop it together, them as a tenant and you as a developer and owner.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Correct. But we were also very clear we hadn't signed any lease agreements when we kicked off the project.

speaker
Erik Granström
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. All right. I understand. Thank you.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

And then coming back... We had an LOI, so we were agreed on the head of terms, but by various reasons, they couldn't sign lease agreements at that stage.

speaker
Erik Granström
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. That's clear. And then coming back to sort of the projects that you mentioned that you were hoping to start in Q4 that didn't pan out, Could you explain that a little bit more in detail? It sounded almost like it was more to do with permits and land issues rather than discussions with tenants. Is that correct?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

That is correct. I would say that both we and the customers want to do the projects. Of course, we are negotiating, but There were some issues with permits, especially here in the southern part of Sweden where a neighbor to the land area saw some very rare birds called curlew in English, storskov in Swedish. And then there was a major hiccup from the landstyrelse, county of administration. So we have to sort that out before we are allowed to kick off any activities on that land area. On the other one, there was more of a discussion also together with the municipality about risks in the land, in the ground. And we have to also to solve those issues before we can move on. So I think there are some things that we can't control, I'm afraid.

speaker
Erik Granström
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, but do you think that that will be resolved during 2025, or is this sort of something that's going to take years to... I think that will be solved in one way or another during 2025. Okay, thank you. And then my final question, perhaps, to David, it's the cost of debt. You mentioned that the average interest rate cost came down during the quarter. Given what you know already today, do you expect this level to sort of be maintained during 2025, or do you expect it to move in any direction?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

That's a very good question. I expect that we should be able to do more. I expect to have better terms whenever we source new funding or if we do refinances. So we should be able to remain and even push it further down. That's the trajectory we are looking for.

speaker
Erik Granström
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay, thank you. Those were my questions.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

The next question comes from Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

speaker
Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard
Analyst, Jefferies

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. So the first one is on the like-for-like expected for 2025. So what is the estimated impact of indexation for 2025? And maybe just coming back on your reversionary potential, do you mean that your average reversionary potential is basically zero today, or you are only mentioning Q1, just to understand what is your current reversion today?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thank you for the question. On the first question, we know in 2025 that the CPI change is 1.6%. So that's the print from October last year. Secondly, on the other question, which is very interesting, of course, to think about, I think the key point here from our perspective is that what we tend to see in the market right now, specifically since we have oversupply and things like that, we do see that there is a bigger gap between high-quality assets and, and, and assets that doesn't hold the, the quality that logistics companies are looking for. So from that perspective, we do expect for those properties that are located perfectly, we should see a trajectory of positive, uh, reversion potential. But then if, is it in, in, you know, two years time, three years time, four years time, that's difficult to tell. Uh, so, so, um, What we have said to the market and been very clear to the market right now, we think that overall our rent level is in line with market rents. But given the quality of our portfolio, we do expect that there is a positive long term. That's how we view the overall market and our portfolio.

speaker
Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Thank you. That's interesting. And maybe a follow-up on that. On ERVs, so what has been the change of ERVs in 2024? And you seem super positive in 2025. So maybe if you can give us more colors on the potential evolution of ERVs in 2025.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, we won't disclose a specific number or guide any specific number on that. Thank you.

speaker
Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard
Analyst, Jefferies

All right. And the final one, it's a quick technical question, but you have made a total of 11 billion of investment last year, so in 2024, but I only see 4.4 billion in your cash flow from investing activities. So how can we reconcile the two figures?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think that's the question. I understand your question, but I think it's better to take that aside from this, I can explain that there are just different ways in how you structure your cash flow. Basically, you can have a gross kind of explanation and you can have a net kind of explanation. We have a net kind of explanation. That's why you have troubles seeing the links. But me and Jörgen can

speaker
Kana Admitra
Analyst, Barclays

are glad to explain that to you and in a separate call okay okay thank you very much thank you thanks the next question comes from kana admitra from barclays please go ahead uh good morning thank you for taking my question uh so i just have one uh uh for further groups in terms of acquisitions or project development, what are you thinking, how are you thinking about the balance between the two? And in case of acquisitions, what kind of, if you have anything opportunistic, what kind of, how does it compare to the yield on cost of 7% that you have in your development pipeline?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

I think it was quite hard to hear you, but I think you asked about how we compare projects to acquisitions, right?

speaker
Kana Admitra
Analyst, Barclays

Yes, correct. That's how. And how are you thinking about the balance between the two?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Yeah. Yeah. That's a good question, but it depends on what kind of opportunity arise. And we have never in the history been forced to say no to any good opportunities. And we have the financial capacities. I would say we go for both. But yes, new projects on our land bank is more profitable than acquisitions, but we can do both. And that totally depends on what kind of opportunity arrives from the customer market and in the transaction market.

speaker
Kana Admitra
Analyst, Barclays

And how does the transaction market equations compare to your hurdle rate, currently, if you see the transactions that are in the market?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Sorry, it's very tough to hear you, actually. Maybe you can send an email and we'll try to answer you.

speaker
Kana Admitra
Analyst, Barclays

Sure. It's just how does the hurdle rate compare to the acquisitions that you see in the market? If you can hear it.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

I'm very sorry, but neither me or David can hear you clearly. So please, please email us and we will answer you. Cool. No problem. Thank you. Okay. Thank you. Sorry.

speaker
Erik Granström
Analyst, Carnegie

Can you hear me?

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

The next question comes from Oscar Lindquist from ABG Sundahl Collier. Please go ahead.

speaker
Oscar Lindquist
Analyst, ABG Sundahl Collier

Hi. Good morning. Morning. So I have a question on capitalized interest. It came down quite a bit now in Q4. Can you give an indication of a level we can expect for 2025 given current project volumes?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's a relevant question, I guess. And given that we don't We don't know how 2025 will turn out and the volumes, but you are correct. Your analyze is correct, of course, that if the volumes tend to go down, then of course we won't be able to capitalize as much interest. So that's true. So we won't be able to give you a specific number or guide you because a number would more or less suggest a guidance on the volumes going forward.

speaker
Oscar Lindquist
Analyst, ABG Sundahl Collier

Okay. I was more asking in relation to sort of the ongoing project volumes, but not any indication of new project starts.

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, yeah. Well, as of the balance day, one way you could look at it is it's about 800 million, I believe, in on balance day. And then if you think about 800 million going smoothly over 2025 and then capitalize an interest on that close to our average interest rate, then I would say you are probably close to where it will get. And that goes without any new projects in 2025.

speaker
Oscar Lindquist
Analyst, ABG Sundahl Collier

Okay, sure. Thank you. And then in the earnings capacity, you also have included capitalized interest for a normal project volume, as you say. How much is included here?

speaker
David
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, again, that's a very standardized form, but we do look at the balance from the start of the year. So pretty much the same calculation as I just suggested, you could say. Okay.

speaker
Oscar Lindquist
Analyst, ABG Sundahl Collier

Okay, perfect. And then also current tax in the quarter came up quite a bit. Is there anything to highlight there?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

No, not much to highlight, actually.

speaker
Oscar Lindquist
Analyst, ABG Sundahl Collier

Okay, so if we look at the sort of full year number for current tax, is that something we can expect going forward as well?

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

I think we have, yeah, more or less.

speaker
Oscar Lindquist
Analyst, ABG Sundahl Collier

Okay, perfect. Thank you. That's all for me.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Thank you.

speaker
Oscar Lindquist
Analyst, ABG Sundahl Collier

Thank you.

speaker
Moderator
Teleconference Moderator

There are no more phone questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

speaker
Jörgen
Presenter

Yeah, we have one written question, but that's related to the projects and the challenges. And we answered that in one previous question. So with that said, we would like from the Catena side to say thank you to all listeners. Thank you for all questions. Have a nice Thursday and see you again. Thanks. Thanks. Bye.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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