Diös Fastigheter AB (publ)

Good morning everyone and welcome to the DIOS Intron report January to September 2025. My name is Brieca and I will be coordinating your call today. During the presentation you can register to ask a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind please press star followed by two. And for those of you who have joined the webcast today you can also ask a question on the platform. I will now hand you over to your host, Johan Dunmar, Chief Investor Relations Officer, to begin. So, please go ahead, Johan.

Good morning, and welcome to the SQ3 2025 results presentation, focusing on the period July through September. My name is Johan Dunmar. I'm Chief Investor Relations Officer. I'm joined today by CEO David Carlson and CFO Rolf Larsson. In today's presentation, we'll begin with a brief overview of our third quarter performance, followed by a deep dive into the financial results. We will then provide a market outlook and conclude with a Q&A session. Thank you for joining us, and with that, I hand over to David.

Thank you, Johan, and good morning all. Our focus is clear and simple, weighing to increase revenues, reduce costs, and make profitable investments. This quarter confirms we're on the right track. Despite the challenging economic climate, our occupancy rate remains stable at 90%. Leasing activity remains strong, with several major deals in central locations contributing positively to both cash flow and property value. At the same time, we continue to divest assets at book value, strengthening our balance sheet and confirming liquidity in the markets. Financing conditions remain favorable, with lower margins and declining average interest rates. We have some one-off costs related to bond buybacks of $5 million affecting net financial items per quarter that will have a positive impact on net financial items coming quarters. The past decade of near-zero interest rates enabled the real estate sector to prioritize growth through acquisitions and new developments. often at the expense of operational excellence and organic value creation. Our strategic focus is toward the fundamentals of property management and building strong, sustainable cash flows. Over the past 18 months, we have actively rotated assets to strengthen our portfolio, positioning it for long-term value creation. This transformation supports our updated financial targets, which emphasize sustainability, profitability, resilience, and capital efficiency. To clarify our commitment to long-term profitable growth, the Board has adopted new financial targets. Rotating from return on equity of 12% annually, we aim to increase our income from property management per share by 10% annually, while also growing our net asset value, expressed as EPRA and RV per share by 10% per year. These are ambitious, yet entirely achievable goals, reflecting the value creation potential we see in the company today. This includes, among other things, strategically located vacancies that offer strong upside. Our market has shown resilience in the face of rent increases driven by CPI adjustments. We continue to see solid payment capacity among tenants. and our portfolio is well aligned with demand. We own the right properties to capture payment willingness through a relevant and competitive offering, an important factor in achieving our financial goals. In addition, our climate target to half CO2 equivalent emissions by 2030 remains firmly in place, underscoring our commitment to sustainable value creation. Looking ahead, our strategy is built on three pillars. One, operational excellence, driving NOI growth through active management and cost control. Two, selective development and reinvestment, focusing on projects with signed leases and strong tenant demand. Three, disciplined capital allocation, ensuring every investment contributes to long-term value and supports our financial targets. While the targets are challenging, They are well within reach given our current position, strategic direction, and the strength of our underlying assets. The direction is set, and now it's all about execution. Rolf, please give us some more insights to the result.

Thank you, David. So let's get deeper into the result outcome. Rental income increased by 5%. and the economic occupancy rate was 90% compared to 1991 last year. The change is mainly explained by the divestment of fully left residential properties and completed new construction, which has created short-term market vacancies, and some major vacancies occurring in Q2 that now have full impact. We can see that vacancies have been unchanged during the first three quarters of the year. Our assessment is that the market has bottomed out and that we see a more positive rental market going forward, but the recovery will take a little longer than we previously assumed. Property costs are slightly higher compared to last year, mainly due to property acquisitions and one of cost of 3 million related to potential projects that have been canceled. All in all, this means that the operating surplus for the quarter increases by 5%, which corresponds to a surplus ratio of 74%. Financial costs are 10 million higher compared to last year. The reason is higher debt and that we have redeemed bonds early and taken the redemption cost up front, which has affected the quarter's financial costs with a total of 5 million. Income from property management increases by 3% to 267 million. We have had slightly positive value changes regarding properties, and I will come back to this later. Despite the high taxable result this year, current tax is lower due to non-recurring items last year in connection with divestment of properties. Our well-diversified portfolio has strengthened the resilience of our top line, With 32% of our rental income derived from public sector tenants, we have a solid foundation for passing on CPI adjustments. And we see that we can defend and increase our rental levels in connection with renegotiations and new lettings. Notably, 98% of all commercial lease agreements include indexation clauses, with 95% specifically tied to CPI. Life-for-life rental income increased by 0.9% thanks to positive new lettings, and we continue to experience strong demand for premises in central locations and expect continued positive development. With lower financing costs to come and a more optimistic economic outlook for Sweden, we see great potential in our rental growth, both when it comes to rent diversion a continued increased occupancy rate, and creating modern and effective offices in prime locations. As the market leader with local management and being a company with a strong cash flow, we have a competitive advantage over many other real estate companies in our cities. Net letting has been positive in 25 of the last 27 quarters, including 1 million this quarter. The office's role as a brand builder and meeting place is becoming increasingly clear. We continue to see a strong trend that tenants are looking for attractive locations and that their willingness to pay is high for modern and efficient premises. Vacancies are much lower in central location in our cities where we are well positioned, which means that the resilience of our portfolio is high. Currently, several dialogues are on the way with existing and new tenants at good levels. We have a low tenant concentration risk. Our 10 largest tenants, of which six are tax finance, account for 20% of our total rental income with a vault of 5.1 years. And the vault for the whole portfolio is stable at 3.6 years. The market value of our properties amounted to 32.8 billion. During the quarter, we have invested just over 200 million in projects. 90% of the property portfolio has been externally valued in Q3. During the quarter, we have adjusted the inflation assumption from 1.5 to 1%, which has negatively affected the market value by 100 million. The negative effect of the change inflation assumption is offset by strong cash flow thanks to new leases, resulting in a positive unrealized change in value of 60 million during the quarter. The average yield was 6.14%, a decrease of one basis point from the previous quarter. The change is explained by new leases changing the estimated yield requirement at property level. And we see that our transactions are made at book value, which supports our view that our property values are of fair value. As I said earlier, we have invested just over 200 million in tenant adaptions and new builds. There is low risk in our major projects, and most of the rental income comes from tax finance operations. All new commercial projects are built according to BREEAM, at least level very good. And we currently have around 21,000 square meters under construction, with a total investment volume of $730 million, where remaining investment amount to $370 million. All our ongoing projects are proceeding according to plan, both in terms of cost and time. In addition, we have around 270,000 square meters of existing and possible building rights, where we see great potential for further value creation. 54% refers to commercial premises and the remaining to residentials. Going forward, We will prioritize tenant adaptions and, in addition, new bills where we have stable tenants and long lease agreements. At the beginning of July, we issued two- and three-year bonds of a total of $850 million, and at the same time, redeemed bonds maturing in May and October next year, corresponding to $450 million. And as I said earlier, we have taken the redemption cost up front. which has affected the quarter's financial cost with a total of 5 million. In the next 12 months, we will have additional loan maturities, excluding commercial paper of 2.6 billion, which corresponds to 14% of interest-bearing liabilities. And we're actually working for a more prudent maturity profile with longer debt maturities. Bank financing is and will be our most important source of financing, and we currently have 69% of our outstanding loans with banks. They have a very good dialogue with all our banks, and they are clearly willing to join our growth journey and offer us good terms. The margin on a three-year bank loan is currently around 120 basis points. and a three-year bond has a margin of 150 basis points, which is 25 basis points lower than three months ago. Our average interest rate at the end of the period was 4%, and the trend of lower interest rates continues as the marginal cost of debt is still lower than our average cost of debt. This will have a positive impact on our income from property management when refinancing and taking out new loans. We have 69% of our financing in banks, 2.4 billion in unused credit facilities, and a secured loan to value of 39%. We will also add additional borrowing capacity through completed projects. This, together with good relationships with our banks, makes us feel comfortable about future refinancing. We have a conservative balance sheet approach, which reflects our commitment to financial prudence and risk mitigation. During the past year, we have reduced our financial risk and improved our key financial figures through divestments and a more cautious strategy regarding new major projects. This, together with a strong cash flow and available liquidity, means that we now see opportunities for growth, which primarily means an increased volume of tenant adaptions and acquisitions. And as we have mentioned earlier, in October, we sold all our properties in order for $660 million, and we will use the proceeds to amortize debt to create space for profitable investments. And we will also continue to divest non-core properties. Yet again, I feel comfortable with our current financial position and action taken. Our strong cash flow will serve operating expenses, committed capex and further growth.

And I will now leave the word back to David. Thank you, Rolf. Northern Sweden is experiencing a wave of investments tied to the green transition, a shift that is not only vital for Sweden's climate goals, but also for its global competitiveness in delivering high-quality fossil-free products. we're seeing new industrial facilities being built to refine natural resources and into sustainable outputs, alongside energy infrastructure, transport upgrades, and housing developments. These investments are grounded in strong long-term fundamentals, access to clean, affordable energy from hydropower and wind, a cold climate that supports energy efficiency and based land areas available for development. At the same time, we are observing several structural shifts in the broader market. One clear trend in the wake of the economic downturn is the resilience of regional cities, which have outperformed larger metropolitan areas in terms of stability and tenant demand. This is particularly relevant given the limited pipeline of new commercial developments in the coming years, which will constrain supply and support rental levels in well-positioned assets. Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, our recent transactions demonstrate strong liquidity in the market and confirm that our book values are well aligned with market pricing. During the third quarter, we completed several major lease agreements that positively impacted both net leasing and property values. Notable transactions include Clare Street in Umeå, 1,200 square meters, Academia in Gävle, 2,300 square meters, Bonnier and Eifri in Östersund, 2,100 square meters, and Kronofogden in Gävle, 1,500 square meters. A common denominator across all these deals is the demand for modern premises and central locations. At the same time, we see lease terminations primarily driven by tenants directly or indirectly relocating to newly completed developments. These moves are often motivated by the pursuit of more efficient premises. And they occur both within our own portfolio and to competitors, within city districts and from peripheral areas to more central ones. This dynamic is an effect of slightly higher market vacancy. Importantly, tenant payment capacity is not a limiting factor in our cities, given the relatively low rental levels. What we do observe, however, It's a growing willingness to pay for the right space in the right location. The trend remains clear. Tenants are leaving outer areas in favor of central, well-connected properties. With 95% of our portfolio located in A and B locations, we are well-positioned to capture this movement. Occupancy and portfolio impact. We're seeing that the turnaround in occupancy ratio is taking slightly longer than we initially anticipated. While we continue to close strong deals to attractive levels, the ongoing relocations to new developments are delaying improvements in key metrics. Given the size of our property portfolio, it naturally takes time for these metrics to strengthen. Still, the fundamentals are in place and we're seeing positive momentum. The list mentioned above carry an average gross yield on cost of over 9%, contributing positively to property values by approximately 60 million. Despite the downward adjustment in our CPI assumptions for 2025 from 1.5% to 1.0%, which negatively affects property values by around 100 million, we still achieved positive unrealized value changes of 16 million for the quarter. This becomes particularly relevant in light of the limited pipeline of new commercial developments expected in the coming years across all our cities. This environment will constrain supply and, in turn, support rental levels for well-positioned assets. We're also seeing clear patterns in the behavior of public sector tenants across Sweden. Demand remains stable, especially for modern centrally located premises. Government agencies and municipal operations continue to prioritize accessibility, energy efficiency, and long-term functionality. In October, we divested our portfolio in Åre, six fully leased retail and office properties for $660 million. Over the past few years, we've actively developed assets, reaching a strong occupancy rate of 98%. However, Given the portfolio's relatively small scale, the surplus ratio remains low. This creates an opportunity to reallocate capital to larger assets and markets where we benefit from economies of scale and greater long-term value potential, such as last year's acquisitions in Luleå and Gävle for 940 million or Umeå earlier this year for 1.6 billion. The oil transaction was completed at book value, consistent with all our divestments this year. In total, we've sold or signed agreements for approximately $1.6 billion, all at or above book value. This is a clear sign of strength, confirming the accuracy of our valuations and the liquidity in the market. We have a unique position. Our property portfolio is concentrated in attractive locations, to meet the current demand of central, modern, and flexible premises. The earth strength lies in our local presence combined with the company's size, which creates economies of scale in terms of expertise, favorable financing conditions, and investment capacity. This provides competitive advantages that few other companies in northern Sweden have. Our business model is future-proof at low risk. With primary allocation in region cities that are benefiting from urbanization, our premises have great yield resilience. We aim to make sustainable investments in our portfolio to minimize our carbon footprint and future proof of our assets. We're currently making very good deals through our adaptions and renovations. The gross yield on costs for our ongoing investments is on average 9%, which also leads to an increase in value. With an improved economic outlook, we expect the volume of tenant adaptations to increase. We have a top-of-the-line cash flow generation from our business. With prime location assets on a running yield at 5.6% and financing costs at investment-grade levels, we are generating strong and predictable cash flow. Our operations demonstrate stable performance. We have observed significant resilience among our tenants throughout the recent economic cycle. with few bankruptcies and low rent losses. The real estate market in general also shows stability, with property values being less volatile than in metropolitan areas. Our cash flow is not only higher than in many other regions, but also more stable. Looking forward, we are well positioned in our cities to meet market needs, demand, and emerging trends. A strong local presence combined with advantages of scale in terms of capital access and investment capacity gives us a solid foundation to drive organic growth. At the same time, we continue to make value-creating investments, and with stabilizing vacancies, we believe this will have a positive impact on property values. Our own transactions confirm the market valuations as we've constantly sold properties at or above book value. We will continue to grow by acquiring properties with potential, assets that complement our existing portfolio, and are in regions with strong growth prospects. Now, with some more firepower, we're seeking opportunities to deploy capital. We will also continue to divest properties that are not part of our core strategy, or we see limited development potential. With more optimistic economic outlook for Sweden, I'm very confident in DOS's company and in our ability to deliver sustainable long-term returns line or above our new financial targets. That concludes my part. I will now hand back to Johan.

Thank you, David. Thank you, Rolf, for the insights. We are now opening up the floor for questions.

Thank you Johan. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad now. And if you change your mind, please press star followed by the number 2. When preparing to ask your question on the phone lines, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. And for those of you who have joined the webcast today, you can ask a question on the platform The first phone line question we have comes from Oskar Lindqvist with ABG Sandhu Kolia. Your line is open.

Good morning. Hi. Can you hear me?

Yeah, good morning. Good morning.

Good morning. So, firstly, I wonder if you could sort of bridge rental income Q2 to Q3 in regards to contribution from the acquisition you exceeded in June last quarter?

Yeah. On an overall basis, the rental income has benefited from the acquisition for June, where we bought for 1.6 billion in Umeå at around a yield of 6%. On the other side, we sold the fully leased property, Mimer 1, in Borlänge at the last of June, and with that also taking on some vacancies in Q2 that will roll over and get full effect in Q3. So all in all, we have some positive effects from this acquisition and some negative effects from vacancies in Q2. Is that enough?

Could you quantify those contributors?

I can try approximately The divestment was on an annual basis around 42 million in income. Let's see the number. And around almost double, I'd say, around $120 million on an annual basis for the acquisition, and then we had a couple of millions in increased vacancies.

Okay. Okay. And then, secondly, on your financial targets to grow income from property management by 10% and NAV by 10% per year. Could you give sort of a bridge or how you expect to reach that target on an annual basis?

Yes, David here. We have now around 2% more vacancies than three years ago. And that's an asset and a possibility for us. So It's renting out the vacancies that are now positioned in central locations in the cities. We have successfully rotated our assets, so the vacancies that have been coming up now after the pandemic and the economic downturn is low rents in the localities and the possibility to make good deals and rent it out. As we reported, as I mentioned in the CEO report, we're making good deals and with good returns on the investments on those vacancies. So that's the way to go. And reduce costs of.

Yeah. And on letting activity in the market, how would you say it has changed, say, before and after the summer?

Yeah, it's taking up pace. We pressed four new leases the last two months in the high scale, and we had over 60 million newly signed leases this quarter, almost a double from Q2. So we see that the rental market is picking up pace, and we're doing good deals, but we're seeing that it's going to take some more time to show in the numbers of the occupancy rate. So we see two or three quarters from now where we're having this flat state that we are now.

Yep. And on your press releases here, should we expect you to have a positive net letting in Q4?

we're not guiding on that one, so, and we're just started the quarter, so, can't answer that.

Okay. Okay.

Thanks. That's all for me. Thank you.

Thank you. Just a quick reminder, it is staff followed by one to ask a question on the phone line today. We now have Victor with Heritage Securities Online.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Sorry, I was a bit late in the call, but regarding the ore divestment, are you actively looking to divest other full portfolios in other cities, like over the next year or so?

Yeah, David here. We have our non-core assets that we listed that we're open for discussion and divesting if the right opportunities arise, and we are also looking all the time to divest and invest all the time, so we have a lot of discussions on the run, but nothing that we can communicate today.

Of course, but thanks, that's clear. Are you an buyer or seller within the next months, if you say the next six months or so?

we're always having discussions all the time. We have both on the buy side and the sell side. So it's hard to say if we're going to get through with the deals on the buy side or sell side. So with so few months, it's hard to say exactly if we're net seller or net buyer. But we have this over 2% on the LTV in space. to invest and then have a strong cash flow so we can invest in. So we're going to be a net buyer in the long run and we're not passing 55.

Okay, thank you. That's clear. And then more like a general question, how you and the board view like capital allocation in terms of, you know, we have the upcoming dividend suggestion now in Q4, potential sharebacks maybe given the discount to now And also you mentioned the good return on investment in your existing portfolio. Can you please elaborate a bit on the capital allocation over the next year?

Yeah, Johan here. On the share buybacks, there is a mandate for the board, of course, to always look over the possibility to buy back shares. At the current levels, we see that the investment in the standing portfolio returning at good levels. So for the long run, as long as we find investment opportunities in our portfolio and for our tenants, our take is that the board will, at these levels, prioritize organic growth instead of share buybacks. So that's where we stand on capital allocations right now.

Okay, thank you. And then maybe a final question regarding the vacancy. You report like even numbers, not the decimals, et cetera. Can you provide some details on the effect of increasing vacancies, as you mentioned late Q2, how much of that effected? Like how much of the increased vacancies affect the rental income bridge, if you can say so.

Sorry. Sorry, the line was a bit blurry. Could you take the question again on vacancies?

Yeah, sorry. Absolutely. So Oscar asked about the rental bridge and I understand that you have some both projects and investments and acquisitions. But what's like the Can you provide some more detail on the vacancy effects of the rental income rates from Q2 to this quarter?

It's quite flat, but we have this effect by the, so we fully left the high school building in Boling, and now in Q4, 97% let the buildings in Åre come in court.

We're selling assets that are and a higher occupancy ratio than the standing portfolio. So the transaction will have a negative effect on the reported occupancy ratio.

All right. Perfect. Those are my questions. Thanks for taking my questions. Bye.

Thank you.

Thank you. We currently have no further phone line questions, so I'd like to hand it back to management for the webcast questions.

Thank you. We have some written questions, and I'll try to summarize them. The first questions are around occupancy rate, and it's more like, is there a structural vacancy in the market that limitates the occupancy rate to 90, 91%? We could take that one first.

Okay, David, I can answer that. No, we see no structural shift in the occupancy rate, and we see that the vacancies for us is an asset to use a potential. So we are, as I said earlier on the other question, we are constantly rotating our portfolio to more central located assets that have high demand, so there's no structural shift that we should stay at 1991 in the long run.

Great, and I think the second question we've answered around where we see a stabilized occupancy and when the market has bottomed out, then when will we see increased occupancy ratio? And to repeat that, we'll see that the market has bottomed out, we see some two or three quarters at stable levels, like for like. But as the communicated deals that were press released are coming into force, we could expect the vacancies to be reduced. And one question about CAPEX and tenant adoption in new builds. Will you see an acceleration in your project starts from here going forward? And to answer that one, we have investment capacity, and as David mentioned, there's a willingness for us to invest for our tenants, but also mentioned on the call that we're not looking for new builds in the current market. We will focus more on tenant adaptions and transactions rather than new builds and new constructions at this point. So that was all the written questions, and we would like to say thank you for listening in, and please reach out to us. The contact details are in the presentation. So with that, I would like to end this call and wish you all a pleasant Friday. Thank you.

Thank you. I can confirm that does conclude today's call with Dios. Thank you all for joining Humanities Connect, and please enjoy the rest of your day.