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Embracer Group AB (publ)
11/16/2023
Good morning everyone and welcome to Embracers Q2 results presentation. My name is Martin Annel and I'm an analyst with DMB Markets in Stockholm and I'm here to moderate Q&A after management's presentation and if you have questions please raise your hand for those of you in the room and you can also dial in to the telephone conference or sending questions online. If you're sending questions online please be short and snappy so we have time for your question. And with that I want to hand over to President and CEO Lars Wingfors and with him is Johan Ekström, Deputy CEO and CEO.
Thank you Martin and hello and warm welcome to this Embracer Groups Q2 presentation from Stockholm. Before we get into the business details of our second quarter I want to start this conference by saying a personal thank you to the 900 people that whom left Embracer during second quarter. As you will hear today we are determined to transform Embracer into a leaner stronger company. That said it's painful to me that you need to leave the group and we have been and are doing everything we can to preserve jobs without changing what we need to achieve. Our people are what we make up the very fabric of Embracer. For me personally it's crucial that the program is carried out with compassion, respect and integrity. Now let's dive into the business highlights for second quarter. In Q2 we delivered a stable performance and improved cash flow with the financial benefits of the restructuring program still mainly ahead of us. In Q2 our net sales grow 13% to 10.8 billion. The organic growth amounted to minus 2%. A result of solid organic growth within tabletop and entertainment and services. But tough year over year comparisons for PC console and mobile. Year to date our organic growth is 8%. Adjusted EBIT came in at 1.8 billion in line with our expectations for the quarter. The tabletop games and entertainment and services segments had a strong second quarter above our expectations. I'm happy to see strength of both Asmodee and the Miller Earth Enterprises. The margin within PC console is still below where we want it. Mainly as a result of the soft performance of titles released last year. But also a few soft releases in the second quarter. This includes Payday 3 which had a positive adjusted EBIT contribution with the investment recouped in second quarter but has performed below management expectations. Free cash flow amounted to around 400 million. And it's a 1 billion improvement compared to first quarter or 1.3 billion improvement year over year. We expect free cash flow to materially improve in second half of the year. Driven by stronger seasonality for the tabletop game segment as well as notable Opex and CapEx savings. For physical 2023-24 we reiterate our adjusted EBIT forecast of 7 to 9 billion. We remain confident in our forecasted range. The second half outlook for PC and console games and mobile segments has however softened somewhat compared to our assessment in the first quarter. Johan will talk more about the forecast later in the presentation. Our key internal IPs and studios are performing well. This includes highly successful releases of the Dead Island 2 and Remnant 2. Remnant 2, internally developed by Gunfire Games and published by Gearbox Publishing, was successfully released on July 25th and has now sold more than 2 million units and generated more than 700 million SEC in net sales in second quarter. I'm glad to also see successful releases in the past week of Risk of Rain Returns selling more than 500 copies in its opening week. Teardown for console, including a new DLC for PC being well received by both players and critics. The Satisfactory Update 8 from Skövde and Coffee Stain. The Awakened King, the first DLC for Remnant 2. All four products getting very well received by both critics and players. This is encouraging to see for the important holiday season period where players will spend a lot of time and money on games. We are also making good progress on our restructuring program. Mygge and Phil, two of our key people managing the restructuring, will go further details later today. From my point of view, we are making good progress and expect to reach our restructuring targets. A lot of focus is on free cash flow generation. To give some color, our operations within mobile, tabletop and entertainment and services provide a solid foundation with predictable, profitable and cash-generated businesses. Adjusted EBITDA, less CAPEX with this three segment is around 4.2 billion SEC. During the last 12 months, if you include Coffee Stain, it's over 5 billion. The soft free cash flow in the past years is more or less only driven by imbalance with PC games and console games. We are now taking actions to make sure the PC console segment will have a solid free cash flow generation in the years ahead. In the past month, having opted for an agile and proactive approach, we have accelerated processes to divest assets relative to external funding for individual games. This shift is driven primarily by notable inbound interest, but also by market dynamics and reduced levels of platform content investments. As a result, we are now running a few structured divestment processes that give us flexibility and optionality to reach our targets. We are focused on maximizing shareholder value and on delivering on the targets in the most efficient way. Now let's move over to the details of the different segments. Net sales in the quarter for PC console games amounted to 3.9 billion, a decrease by 5% year over year or minus 17% organically and 22% per forma in constant currency. The negative organic growth development is mainly explained by tough comparisons, stemming from the release of Saints Row and a notable platform deal in the corresponding quarter last year. Adjusted EBIT amounted to 621 million, with a margin of 16% a decrease year over year. The adjusted EBIT margin remains impacted by games development amortization, combined with the soft performance of the previous year's releases and game delays, impacting back catalog revenue this year. The results are also impacted by two third-party publishing titles, Payday 3 and Trine 5, underperforming management expectations. Revenue from new releases amounted to 1.4 billion in the quarter, a decrease 7% year over year. The main revenue drivers among the new releases in the quarter were Remnant 2, developed by internal studio Gunfire Games and published by Gearbox Entertainment, as well as Payday 3, developed by external studio Starbreech Studios and published internally through Deep Silver. Remnant 2, released on July 25th, reached a sell-true of 1 million units in four days and saw a peak concurrent user count of over 110,000 on Steam. The game has now sold more than 2 million units and generated net sales of more than 700 million SEK. Payday 3, released on September 21st, saw a mixed reception from critics and users. The studio saw an unforeseen error relating to external matchmaking software. The game had a positive adjusted EBIT contribution with investments recouped in the second quarter, but performed below management expectations. Starbreech is now hard at work to improve player experience. Other new releases in the quarter included Jagged Alliance 3 for console, developed by external studio Hemimont Games and published by THQ Nordic. Further new releases included Ride 5, developed and published by Milestone and Trine 5, developed by external studio Frozenbite and published by THQ Nordic. Back-catalog We saw the sales of back-catalog of 1.6 billion in the quarter, a decrease of 14% -over-year. Looking at the top 10 back-catalog titles, you will recognize many great IPs and games we have in our catalog, such as Dead Island, Saints Row, Deep Rock Galactic, Star Trek Online, Insurgency, SnowRunner. Happy to see the new wrestling game there. Welcome to Blocksburg, Neverwinter Nights and Valheim. The decrease -over-year is primarily explained by a notable contribution from Valheim in the comparison quarter, driven by a platform deal. The ROI chart Looking at the ROI chart, we are not looking at the ROI chart, we are looking at the pipeline. We are excited for the pipeline for the remaining 4.5 months until the end of the year. We have Alone in the Dark from our friends, Pieces in Shrövde and THQ Nordic. We have our first publishing titles from Ghost Ship, Deep Rock Survivor. We have another game from Shrövde, we have many Shrövde games. Lightyear Frontier and one of our first publishing titles from Amplifier. We have one iconic IP from the 90s coming back, Outkast, developed in internal studio, Appeal Studios in Belgium, published by THQ. Moving to Saber and SnowRunner, they have a spin-off called Expeditions, a mud-runner game. SnowRunner is one of Saber's most successful IPs and recurring IPs and they have high hopes for Expeditions. Homeworld 3, another iconic IP, is coming back to gamers through external studio Blackfire Entertainment, published by Gearbox, an owned IP by the group. And we have Arizona Sunshine, which I know has actually a new trailer video coming tomorrow that we are very excited about. That game is scheduled to release in December, a sequel to one of the most popular VR games out there. And finally we have Warhammer 40,000 Space Marines 2. And I'm sure there is a lot of other amazing content coming through in this period. Now look at the ROI chart. So I'm happy to see that our two largest releases had had the highest ROI, with Remnant 2 being the standout release from an ROI perspective in the quarter. That is very good for the return of investment in this chart, because we also had a number not performing, in this quarter at least, breakeven. For other releases, PC release of Yagdala and Stree as well as Riot 5 have performed largely in line with management expectations, while Triant 5 again has underperformed. The weighted average of ROI now stands at around 2.3 as of the end of the quarter compared to around 2.4 in the first quarter. It is lower than we would like due to the underperforming releases last financial year, as well as the short period of inclusion of the stronger, larger releases in the first and second quarter this year. An interesting data point is that over the past two years, our internally developed games have had an ROI over twice as high compared to externally developed games. This speaks to the qualities of our key internal IPs and studios. Continued execution of the restructuring program will be key to improve the return of investment, profitability and cash flows within PC console game segments. Post the restructuring program, we have an increased confidence in our ability to deliver a general improved quality and ROI in the coming years ahead. Looking to investments and pipeline. In the PC console game segment, investments in game development remained high. As previously stated, the financial benefits of the program are primarily expected to be visible in the actual financial performance starting October 1st. In total, around 1.7 billion was invested during the quarter. The finalized value of the completed and released games during the quarter amounted to 1.1 billion, driven by the release of Remnant 2 and Payday 3. In comparison period, Saints Row with a notable development and marketing budget was released. The ratio of investments to completed games increased from 0.8 to 1.5, with a continued higher pace of ongoing investments into future game releases than completed investment in released games. As of the second quarter, capitalized development costs for ongoing game development projects in the balance amounted to around 10 billion. In the quarter, we had around 1.1 billion in write-downs related to the restructuring program, which Johan will discuss more later. Let's head over to mobile games. First of all, I would like to say I'm pleased with the performance of mobile games, but it's important that you understand the data points here. Net sales in the quarter for mobile games amounted to around 1.5 billion. An increase of 2% compared to the same period last year, or minus 10% organically and 4% per forma in constant currency. Underlying market trends and monetization had a stable development in the quarter. Easybrain continues to shine and had a stable or flat organic growth in the second quarter, while Deca Games, including Crazy Labs, saw clearly negative organic growth. The number of monthly and daily active users both declined year over year, driven by Deca Games, partly driven by a shift to genres with smaller player bases, but with better retention and monetization. This is very important you understand this when looking at these numbers, the change of business models. Adjusted EBIT amounted to 372 billion, not billion unfortunately, million I meant, or a 25% adjusted EBIT margin. User acquisitions amounted to 700 million or 48% of net sales. User acquisition investments continued to grow sequentially, but partly moderated in the latter part of the quarter to optimize long term profit projections. The strongest catalog titles are a number of classics here, Sudoku.com, Blockodoku, Number Match, my own favorite game actually, Art Puzzle and Jigsaw Puzzles. Easybrain released the game numbers some globally in the quarter and also had a number of soft launches around the world. Crazy Labs has shifted a great portion of focus to the hybrid casual segment, which has a mix of ads and in-app purchases monetization and a longer lifetime value than hyper-casual games. The company saw a positive early result from Alien Invasion, a hybrid casual game for which the company took over the publishing rights in the quarter. The game is expected to have a very short payback time on the investment and to strengthen profitability. Moving over to Tabletop. I was very pleased to see this morning that Sällskapsspel or Tabletop Games became the Christmas present of the year in Sweden. That's big news if you are Swedish. I think it's a fantastic nomination or win that Tabletop Games as a Christmas gift. And I'm also very pleased to report strong numbers from that business segment this quarter. Net sales grew 25% compared to the same period last year or by 15% organic and 13% per former in constant currency. Net sales were 4.1 billion. Growth was driven by the trading card games product category with low single digit growth for board games. From a geographical perspective, growth in Europe outperformed growth in the States. Adjusted EBIT amounted to 661 million, yielding a 16% adjusted EBIT margin, which is an improvement compared to last year and a notable improvement compared to first quarter. Adjusted growth 47% year over year, despite the product mix more geared towards trading card games, driven by strong organic growth, sales, positive currency exchange rate changes and cost savings. Asmodis inventory unwinding continued according to the full year plan in the second quarter. Counter to historical seasonal trends, which typically means significant inventory build up in the preparation for the peak season. The inventory increase in second quarter this year was notably lower than previous years. This drove a significant improvement in cash generation with Asmodi delivering a positive free cash flow for the quarter, compared to a notable outflow in second quarter last year. A significant free cash flow generation is expected in the second half of the fiscal year as Asmodi enters the seasonally strongest period. Asmodi released a number of games and novelties during the second quarter, including a new kids game line from Exploding Kittens, other new original titles such as Champions from Ripos Prod and Spellbook from Space Cowboys. Other titles released included new licensed games such as the Netflix titles Bridgerton and Cobra Kai from Mixlore, and a Disney edition of our evergreen Dixit game from Libreload. In the coming quarters, new releases will include a new legacy game in the successful Ticket to Ride franchise from Days of Wonder and Marvel Crisis Protocol new edition from Atomic Mass. And finally, Star Wars Unlimited, Asmodi's eagerly anticipated new trading card game, was demoed publicly for the first time at the Gen Con and SN trade shows to an overwhelmingly positive reaction from the public and press alike. The global launch date was also announced as March 8, 2024. Stay tuned. Heading over to the entertainment and services segment, net sales in the quarter for entertainment and services amounted to SEK 1.4 billion, an increase of 76% compared to the same period last year, or 13% organically and 28% per forma in constant currency. The organic growth was primarily driven by PlayOn, partner publishing and film. Star Wars had a negative contribution to organic growth due to a slower backlist publishing sales for graphic novels. The strong inorganic increase in net sales was primarily driven by the acquisitions within the -a-Free mode of limited run games and Middle Earth enterprises, with the latter growing strongly on a performer basis. Adjusted EBIT amounted to SEK 216 million, driving a much improved margin -over-year of 16%. The higher adjusted EBIT margin is primarily explained by stronger than expected licensing revenue for the Lord of the Rings IP within -a-Free mode. The main driver in this quarter was the magic, the gathering trading card game, The Lord of the Rings Tales of Middle Earth. The game was released through Middle Earth Enterprises' long-term partnership with Wizards of the Coast, garnering positive acclaim from fans and critics. After the quarter, The Lord of the Rings returned to Moria, a new PC console survival crafting game from external licensee North Beach Games and development studio Free Range Games was released. The game saw mixed receptions from critics, but the title has positively received critics from amongst players for its co-op mode and its story. The game has performed in line with management expectations on Epic Games Store and is expected to be released for console later this financial year. After the quarter, Dark Horse was awarded the best international book for their Black sad, They All Fall Down, Part 1, at the Harvey Awards. For their work on Cyberpunk 2077, Big City Dreams, they won the Hugo Award for the best graphic story or comic at the 1981st World Science Fiction Convention. The Berserk manga book series soon reaches another milestone when closing nearly 3 million of sold books. Further, Dark Horse and Lucasfilm Publishing will be publishing Star Wars Hyperspace Stories, a number of books with standalone stories. First out is Star Wars Hyperspace Stories Q-Con in April 2024. Clear River Games announced a Tokyo Game Show in September that will be publishing Omega-6, the video game based on the manga by ex-Nintendo veteran, Takaya Amamura, and the beat'em up of Rushing Beat X based on the classic Jaleco IP. On the same show, the studio Tachujin announced No Bros Wonderland, and Traxon Extreme, both based on classic Toua plan games. This is really nerdy and amazing. So, market, I'm soon done, Johan. So, the market is stable, that's good news. But so, a bit declining expectations over the past quarter. But it's a stable market, underlying market, and it's driven by better console supply, a stronger new release lineup, and digital sales generally amongst other things. And the 2023 Global Video Games markets is expected to generate 184 billion, an increase of 1% year over year. PC is now expected to grow by 4%, console is expected to grow by 2%, and mobile is expected to decline by 2%. PC is also the only segment with a higher 2023 market forecast, and it's also estimated to be the fastest growing segment this year. The longer term growth prospects remain strong, and total games market is forecast to reach 206 billion in 2026, a 5% kegger between 2019 and 2026. With that said, I will leave over to Johan for financial comments. Thank you very much,
Lars. Thank you. Yes, so let us take a look at an overview of our financial performance in Q2. Although we were up against Tough Comp, versus last year in the quarter with the release of Saints Row and the platform team relating to Valheim last year. Our full year sales increased in the quarter, so full year sales amounted to approximately 42 billion SEK. We note that marketing expenses in relation to net sales remain at 10%. User acquisition costs increased sequentially, but is still lower compared to the corresponding period last year. Marketing expenses outside of the mobile segment remain at a relatively high level, and is mainly due to giving the support to larger releases such as Remnant 2 and Payday 3. And also supporting the healthy performance that we see in the tabletop segment in the quarter. Operating expenses was slightly lower than last quarter. In absolute terms, 2.7 billion. And if we look at it in relation to net sales, it decreased to 25% in the quarter. Adjusted EBIT decreased versus the same period last year, amounting to 1.8 billion in the quarter and 6.7 billion on a full year basis. As mentioned in June when we announced the restructuring program, we treat expenses related to the restructuring program as items affecting comparability, thereby excluding them from adjusted EBIT. Items affecting comparability amounted to 1.4 billion in the quarter, of which 1.1 billion relates to write-downs of game development projects. It is important to note that write-downs of game development are considered as items affecting comparability only when they are related to the restructuring program where the studio or the team has been discontinued. Let us take a look at the cash flow for the quarter. First, a reminder, the positive effects from our restructuring program are expected to be seen in our current trading during the second half of this financial year. However, we have a positive free cash flow in the quarter of approximately 400 million, which is significantly better than the negative 900 million we had last year. As a result, the full year free cash flow increased to 1.5 billion. Compared to last year, there is a significantly reduced inventory build-up in the tabletop games segment, which has a positive effect on the changes in working capital. Sequentially, operating receivables and liabilities increased, mainly driven by the tabletop games segment, but also an increase in accrued expenses in the PC console segment related to game releases in the quarter. M&A outflow in the quarter amounted to 120 million and relates mainly to payments for historical acquisitions. The cash flow effect of items affecting comparability amounts to 146 million and our cash outflow made under the restructuring program. Cash flow from financing activities were impacted positively by 2 billion SEK from the share issue made in July and negatively by less utilization of credit facilities in Play-On. At the end of September, our net debt amounted to 14.6 billion and available funds amounted to 6.9 billion. We expect to reach our net debt target for the full year of 8 billion at the end of March, with notable positive impacts from the restructuring program during the second half of this fiscal year. In July, agreements were signed for the parent company's main credit and loan facilities, extending maturity to October 2024. The second stage of this extension is being negotiated and is expected to be concluded during the restructuring program. Embrace Group has an agreement on Covenants in its credit agreements. The terms for these are 2.5 times net debt through EBTA, calculated according to the principles in the loan agreements. And as per the end of September, we have significant headroom versus this Covenant. Looking ahead, as Lars mentioned earlier, we reiterate the forecast for this financial year with an adjusted EBIT between 7 and 9 billion SEK. We remain confident in our forecast. The H2 outlook for the PC console and mobile segments have however softened somewhat compared to the assessment made in Q1. For PC console, it's due to actual or expected performance of new game releases, as well as minor probable shifts in pipeline. For mobile, it relates to a slightly more conservative view on monetization and organic growth. In the PC console game segment, we expect solid earnings growth for the full year, driven by back-catalog revenue from games released during the first half of this year, as well as a strong lineup of new releases across our different operatives groups during the second half of this year. In the mobile game segment, we expect a -to-high single-digit negative organic growth. Underlying market trends are assumed to be stable throughout the rest of the year, and we expect an adjusted EBIT margin that is slightly above what we saw last year. In the tabletop game segment, we expect a -to-high single-digit organic growth, driven both by board games and trading cards, with an adjusted EBIT margin that is slightly below what we saw in fiscal 2022-23.
With that said, I will hand over to Mygge, welcome on stage, who is with us here, and Phil, who is with us online. Welcome, both are deeply involved in managing the restructuring program. Mygge as the Finance Workstream Lead, and Phil as the PC Console Lead and Embracer Interim Chief Strategy Officer. As you know, they are also active as part of the management for Asmodi and Crystal Dynamic IDOS respectively. Thank
you Lars. Good morning everyone. Let me start today by providing a brief overview and reminder of our restructuring program. We will then provide an update on the progress in each of these focus areas together with Phil. You will recall the objective of the restructuring program is to deliver a set of operational and financial measures, so as to improve efficiency and increase cash flow. Again, this will make us a stronger, more focused, leaner and self-sufficient company. As you know, in order to achieve this objective, we have laid out a set of targets in different areas of focus. We aim to deliver savings of at least 2.9 billion SEK in CAPEX, of at least 0.8 billion in OPEX, by the end of the financial year 2023-24. We also target to nearly halve the net debt position to below 8 billion SEK by the end of the financial year 2023-24. There are three main focus areas to achieve these targets, OPEX and CAPEX savings, the improvement of our capital allocation, as well as efficiency improvements across the group. You would also recall the program is delivered in a phased approach. As we mentioned at the outset of the program, the period between the announcement and the end of Q2 is dedicated to the identification and implementation phase. The majority of OPEX and CAPEX savings were planned to come into effect as of October 1st. The financial savings were thus expected to contribute in the second half of the period. Capital allocation and efficiency improvements will continue to run through the end of the financial year. Let's take a look at now the progress that's been made so far. But before we look at the details, overall I can say we have made good progress on the restructuring program. OPEX savings are ahead of the plan and CAPEX savings are expected to contribute in the second half of the year. With regards to CAPEX savings, we have completed the first phase of reductions. Based on a global TORO review of the PC console pipeline, we are now deep into the implementation of further reductions of headcount. This review is an essential phase to ensure that our portfolio is positioned for future success and innovation. We expect to reduce our CAPEX run rate by more than a third, reaching an around run rate level of 5 billion SEC in fiscal year 2024-25. On the OPEX side, as I mentioned earlier, the savings initiatives are well on track. They are delivering both headcount and other overhead savings. We have put in place a comprehensive monitoring, which allows us to track the realization of phase savings. At the same time, we remain agile and flexible to react to any change in circumstances. As I already mentioned, the financial savings will be seen over the second half of the year. However, we can already see some tangible results in the reduction of headcount. At the end of the quarter, the overall headcount was down by 904 versus Q1. This represents a roughly 5% reduction in the workforce. The reduction was primarily driven by internal headcount, which was down by 713. And this compromised 511 developer and 202 non-developer roles. While this is partly business as usual, the majority is driven by the restructuring program that we have put in place. In this group-wide effort, we are not only discontinuing a number of studios and teams, we have also made headcount reductions and reduced the number of projects in several other studios. This is increasing the efficiency across the group, while also for the first time we have seen headcount reduction on a -on-quarter basis. Since the end of Q2, in respect of due process and commercial sensitivity, we will not comment on the specifics. But further restructurings, closures, bouts are in process and that will lead to additional headcount reduction. Lars mentioned in his opening comments, and let me reiterate here, of course, having to say goodbye to our valued colleagues is an unfortunate consequence of the program. And we will continue to do our utmost to carry out this with respect, integrity, compassion. With that said, I will now hand over to Phil, who will provide an update on the capital allocation and efficiency initiatives. Phil, the stage is yours.
Thanks, Lugay. Just make sure the sound is coming through okay. And if you can click to the next slide, please. So, whilst this slide is an update on the restructuring, it also begins to look forward to future Embracer and how we transform ourselves into a leaner, stronger, more focused, cash self-sufficient company. A company we report today, which is committed to maintain its status amongst the leadership in the games industry and committed to deliver even better experiences for our players. Now, how we allocate capital and set up our organization is of critical importance to these commitments. And to cover the capital aside first, as a reminder, we said at the outset in June that we're exploring a number of avenues, including sources of external funding and potential divestments. Now today, comparing those two avenues, we are focusing on divestment opportunities, as Lars mentioned, as this shift has really been driven by a notable inbound interest. Our absolute focus in the restructuring is on getting to the targeted run rate capex levels in the most effective way. And we're working with flexibility and optionality to reach these targets. To structure and how we organize ourselves, we have begun to review and design how Embracer should be set up to enable great teams to make great games. Working within an aligned investment strategy to deliver high quality hits, profitably and predictably. Now, as you've seen today and believe at the heart of Embracer, our teams capable of that delivery. So we must ensure we've got the operating models to drive better execution, ownership and decision making. Now, this may result in consolidation of companies and businesses. The process is ongoing now in Q3 and implementation will accelerate in Q4. Just to draw an example here, earlier this month, we reset Cryptic in North America to work into DECA. Now, Cryptic's focus today is on its evergreen games and live services, which is aligned with the strengths of DECA. On efficiency, to me, this really is all about how we take responsibility to use our size and diverse talent in smart ways to develop and scale services across Embracer. Services we need to deliver the best player experiences for the future. So not only how we green light and support each game development process, but also how we better leverage solutions to common development problems across studios, not reinventing in isolation, when we can build from each other's success and expertise. And thirdly, the optimal management of franchise development with our global IPs. And to name just one, well, for me, it's Lord of the Rings. But of course, there are so many others. Now, from my experience, now working with an Embracer group for over a year, by unifying our goals to a common vision of making quality games, we are stronger together and will go farther. To finish, I'll just add to Muge's comments that overall, whilst it has been agonizing to make cuts and reductions to our own Embracer workforce, we are making the positive progress to our necessary new goals, and we will win when we're focused. Of course, we'll provide the updates, as Muge has mentioned, each quarter now. And on that, I think I'll hand back to Lars.
Thank you, Phil. Thank you, Muge. There is some noise here. Hopefully it goes away. I would like to conclude, and I would like to say a few more long-term minded words before we jump into the Q&A. We started this company with a vision to support entrepreneurs, and that is still my firm belief today. When macro and market dynamics have changed, we need to adopt a new reality. The Embracer model is getting adjusted and improved, but my long-term vision is still unchanged. We should not lose sight of the fact that Embracer remains one of the leading groups of successful entrepreneurs, creative talents and world-class IPs. While doing the deep analysis of the business, it's apparent there is a great number of business hidden games and amazing games being built across the group. We have fantastic people and many amazing IPs, and we aim to demonstrate the growing earnings power of this combination over time. And to shareholders, I want to make clear that we will continue the focus on delivering long-term value and a solid growth of free cash flow per share. I'm in the same boat with you all long-term minded shareholders, and I will make sure that every step we take is about growing the long-term value. So with that said, I would like to hand over to Martin and the Q&A.
Thank you Lars.
Thank you.
Welcome back to the Q&A and thanks for those presentations. I mean, I understand that this is a challenging quarter for you with scaling down and adjusting to the new reality. How challenging is it for you and when do you think that you can look at this as something new and exciting?
I think everyone understands it's more fun and exciting to scale up and grow. But a journey being an entrepreneurial journey, you face headwinds and you need to take them on and adapt to it. And it's just painful to let people go. It's just a more human thing. But I think I wouldn't say in its context, I want to say excited, but obviously we see the shape of the future now. So now we just need to get through this and I'm confident that we will come out from this as a much stronger and leaner company.
And you're halfway into this year and you repeated most of your guidance, for example the net debt and just a little bit for the full year. How much control do you feel that you have on those items with two quarters left on the air?
Well, there is a substantial instrument we play on with our own adjustments and cuttings. But then there is a number of other things working with industry players, both with partnering and content as well as potential divestments. And we run a number of structured processes that gives us the flexibility and optionality we need to achieve the targets we set out. So yes, we are confident we will reach those targets by the end of March.
And I must ask you on the restructuring program, of course, and maybe Miggi, you want to share some color on how it's been and what surprises and extra challenges, etc.?
Well, as we said, the first part of the program which took place during Q1 was really dedicated to the identification and implementation. So we already knew that the initiatives, their financial effects would come into effect as of the second part of the program starting October 1st. So from that said, there are several areas of focus, levers. We have put in place a comprehensive tracking, monitoring company-wide, which allow us to remain agile and flexible. So far, we are quite good at tracking that.
And you've been with Asmodee for some time. How do you feel about their delivery in this quarter? Are they performing stronger than you expected, if you look back a bit?
I am very happy with the performance of Asmodee. September itself is one of an important peak season period for us. And the implementation of restructuring program has started also at Asmodee. So the good performance is a combination of both the current trading, the operational performance and the proper execution of the plan. So it was important for us. We don't take it lightly. So we are on track and we aim at delivering our fiscal year and run rate targets.
And with this extreme focus on the cash flow, do you see any risk that it could impact growth negatively in the coming quarter in Asmodee with inventory, for example?
As Lars mentioned, the unwinding of inventory is on track, is going well, which explains why. This quarter Q2 cash flow came in positive, even if the business model of Asmodee is meant to deliver a cash positive balance on second half and not the first half. We have now entered into our peak season based on the visibility. We feel confident that we will be delivering that. You're right. The cash flow seasonality wise driven also is concentrated on H2. And I feel confident with the delivery.
And maybe Johan and Lars, you could share some more light on the comments on PC console for the second half. You mentioned that you shifted the outlook a little bit, but you mentioned a couple of reasons there. But is it external and internal factors or any lights on this would be helpful?
I think it's mainly driven by our own game releases. For example, we had Payday 3 coming in end of the quarter a bit weaker than expected. And that will have some impact in the second half of the year. And then we have a number of releases coming through. We already had some releases in October. You have seen the performance of them. But actually, meanwhile, working with the report here, we have four wins. So it's very volatile. It's wrong. But you don't know the final outcome of all the game releases. But I think the four things we released the past week is exactly the type of successes we want and need. And it's just an amazing achievement of those publishers and development teams. But I think that in isolation is perhaps not an enormous impact. But obviously, there is many factors in our overall performance. And I think those wins the last week has an impact.
And just a question to you, Johan, before we let the floor and the conference in here. But in your bridge to take the net debt down to eight billion, I think you communicated roughly how much of every item. And based on the comments in this report, is it fair to say that we should expect a little bit higher impact from potential divestments and potentially lower impact from potential partnerships going forward?
Yeah, I think that I said during the presentation, we are confident that we would live around the targets set out for the restructuring program in terms of capex reduction, opex reduction, as well as meeting the net debt target by the end of the year. We won't update specifically the bridge that we showed in June. But from what we see and what Phil explained earlier, there is a focus towards asset divestments as opposed to obtaining external funding for individual game development projects due to inbound interest and shift in market dynamics.
Are you both looking at larger and smaller potential divestments?
I think the color we have given is that there are a few structured processes ongoing, which gives us optionality and flexibility to reach our targets for the year end.
Okay, I think it's time to open up the floor here in the room. I think we have a first question here from Rasmus at Handelsbanken.
Yes, hi. Two questions actually. It's Rasmus Engberg with Handelsbanken. Firstly, in terms of the restructuring, you have charged to cash flow roughly a third of what you thought you would charge. Does that mean that there are actually quite significant reductions going forward as well in terms of headcount?
Should I take this?
Yes.
Our targets are set on opex and capex level. So it is not set at the number of headcount and so on while this being a way to get there. So the target isn't a number. It's set at an opex and capex level, which gives us also optionality in several different areas. Like I said, with what we have put in place, we remain confident that the year to go fiscal year targets will be achieved.
But it's still the case that in terms of actual savings seen in the numbers, those will come and then there will be further charges with that. And then I had one final question for the businesses that the business large that you don't guide for the entertainment and services. I think we're running at something like 16% margin. Is that a sort of a good guess for the full year or should it be higher or lower? It seems like a bit of a black box to everyone
there. Black box is a wrong word, but there is many different businesses that has a very different margin profile. Obviously, it's very strong margins in Middle Earth enterprises. And if there is significant revenue coming in, it definitely improves the margin in the business. Meanwhile, partner publishing, which seasonality in that business is strong now in third quarter, most likely it would have an impact on the lower margin in that segment in the third quarter.
So you're expecting to have that very large contribution to revenues also in this third quarter that you normally have in this business?
For example, within Play on partner publishing business, they are, for example, shipping a well-known shooter in the third quarter across Europe. That alone low margin, but high revenues. In the end of the day, we're here to make an absolute profit in number of dollars or euros.
It's okay if you talk about the actual profit instead of the margin. I don't think anybody would mind. Thanks.
Okay, do we have anyone else in the room? I think we have
three questions from the telco.
Okay, we'll move on to the telco. Please go ahead.
The next question comes from Eric Larson from SEB. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator, and good morning. I hope you're good. I have two questions. So first off on divestments and or publishing deals, I guess, that you have commented on. I think the market is pretty eager to see progress here, and I'm just curious if you can comment whether there are any specific things holding deals back being made, so to speak. And also if you comment that you have received inbound interest, so I guess the natural question would be, could you be more outbound?
Well, yes, there is a lot of industry, but the industry is fairly small, and it's a good transaction market with a lot of active players. As we mentioned, there is a structured process, and if you're running structured processes, they take some time if you include leading global advisors and so on. So perhaps I should not guide on the time to run a global structured process, but that is not done overnight. So that we are talking not years, but obviously we're talking months and quarters to process them through. In the end of the day, to have a very professional process with data room and different bidders and auction processes, and ultimately to make sure the board has the right material to make a decision in the end of the day, yes or no. If this is the right decision for shareholders, it gives us a good optionality, but we are not running those processes out from our office here in Sweden. This is run by leading global banking teams and advisors across the world.
Okay, thank you for that. And final question for Johan on the debt that matures in October 2024. You've commented on this, but possibly extending this further. So in August you said you expected these negotiations to conclude during the fall, and now you expect them to conclude during the fiscal year essentially. Okay, so my question is just if you could shed any color on what's behind this postponement, and I guess also if you could comment on how discussions are going in general, that would be appreciated. I
think to start with, we can say that we have a very good relation with our relationship banking group. Obviously, it is negotiations. And if you look at restructuring program, we have said that it should be finalized by the end of March. We expect the stage two of the extension to be finalized within that timeframe.
Okay, that was my question. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.
The next question comes from Simon Johnson from ABG Sundal Koliya. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Just one question from me. It's under restructuring. A head count has been reduced by 5% so far compared to last quarter at least. You said back in June that you target 6 billion CAPEX this year. So my question is if this still is the goal, and if so, how do you expect to close that gap given 2 billion CAPEX here in Q2? Thank you.
As I mentioned earlier, when we announced the program, we had said that the financial outcomes of the plan were meant to come into effect as of October 1st. So we knew that the contribution would take place in the second half of the year. So in the numbers that we commit, we had already communicated and factored the fact that the effects would fall into the second half. So from that aspect, like I said, we are tracking against our OPEX and CAPEX targets, and we remain committed in delivering the 8 billion net debt target.
All right. Thank you. I'll get back into the queue.
The next question comes from Ali Nakvi from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Just on the point regarding select interest in parts of your business, how much of this would you say suggests a restart of M&A in the sector versus these external parties being relatively opportunistic? And given where valuations are, do you have a view on impairments or things like that? Should these deals complete? Secondly, on the mobile gaming segment, how much of a sequential improvement are you expecting on organic growth? And how much of this is a function of either the underlying market improving or things that are in your control to improve, please? And when does this start coming? Is it Q3 or Q4?
To start with the last question on mobile, I think the businesses we have are ads driven, so I don't think you should look at the general market dynamics for in-app purchase mobile games industry. And there is a number of factors and dynamics in that market, you know, ad prices, you know, being one of them. For Embracer, again, we have changed the business model within crazy labs to more hybrid casual model, which gives a lower top line, but a longer, higher value of each player and a stronger probability. So that is kind of changing our organic growth KPI on the top line. And these changes are, you know, we saw that change already now in the second quarter. And that change will continue and that will impact our Embracer organic growth going forward. Now the profitability, I think, is very stable now in the second quarter, and we expect the probability to be stable going forward. So I'm very pleased with our mobile game businesses and that they are adapting to, you know, the dynamics of the market. And, you know, they are successful of bringing new products to the market, which I think is obviously one important KPI, for example, Ease of Brain, launching new successful games into the global market this quarter. I think on the first questions regarding divestments again, you know, it's obviously there is a number of players that are active in the marketplace. I don't want to give too much color on that, but I would say it's still a generally a good transaction market with a lot of industry players. And there's still a lot of financial sponsors in the world that are very interested in the gaming industry that are watching and learning and it remains to be seen whether any of them are entering into this space or not. Now talking PC console. So it's a dynamic market from that perspective. And, you know, and I would like to highlight that this is according to the restructuring program and potentially one or a few divestments is also solving the situation with CapEx. Where there is companies with negative cash flows investing aggressively into the future that could potentially be one of those divestments objects under consideration.
No more questions from the top. Understood.
Thank you. Okay, I have a couple of questions from from from the web and before we close this up. This one is from Tom single Hearst with city and he is asking, I know you touched upon it, but I think it's a good question. A key concern for many beers is that the performance in entertainment and services could be a non recurring or one of can you talk about the pipeline for smaller licensing arrangements?
No, I think Middle Earth Enterprises has a very strong lineup for the future. Now they had some good momentum with Magic the Gathering licensing revenues coming in this year. No, but there is a I would say very strong business plan that will generate significant licensing revenues both this year, but but especially the years thereafter and on top of that, obviously. We will bring potentially more products to the market throughout our own channels of Embracer in the coming years. Again, Middle Earth is a very long term investment and I think is one of our absolute greatest assets. But I wouldn't define I wouldn't define the second quarter performance as a one as a one off, but it will be a volatile business because of the nature of. Okay,
thanks. Just one more from Tom Harris with regard to potential divestment processes. You talk about optionality should we infer that these processes are insurance in case operational cash flow falls short?
I think you could read in a lot of things into that word of optionality. You can also read in that we are thinking about maximizing shareholder value so that we have enough processes that are kind of competing to each other and the board are able to make the right decision in the other day that are the right for the company and its shareholders. If you just want to run one process, you're on the problem of just having one process, you know. If you have many more, you know, so I think this goes without saying why we do this.
And maybe a question for you, Johan, from Nick Dempsey at Barclays. He's asking as part of the group acquisitions announced in August last year, you pointed to a payment that would be delayed by 12 months of 1.3 billion. Has that been paid in October?
Yes.
Okay, clear answer. Thanks. Another one from Nick. Investments in intangible assets has not really changed in Q2 versus Q1. During disposals, are there clear reasons why this will step down in Q3 and Q4?
Sorry, once again there.
The investments in intangible assets not really changed in Q2 over Q1 and, you know, are there clear reasons why it should go down in Q3 and Q4?
I think the reason is what we have talked about is that the restructuring program, we expect to see the effects of that during the second half of this fiscal year.
Okay. Two more before we close down here. It's a bit longer one, but this is from Mark from Valuation Matters Research. Good morning. And the question for Lars. Currently, you have a lot of short-term challenges on the table. However, I would like to know where you see the company in the long term and the company's strategy, let's say in five years. Also considering everything that has happened, what's the main learning lessons you draw from them?
Well, two quite long questions potentially. Obviously, we have communicating that we will have a capital market day post the restructuring program where we'll give a very detailed answer to this question. There is an ongoing work as we speak about the future and the structure. But I see the future as bright and I see the future that we are more thinking as one group with obviously a much leaner and more profitable cash-free generative business. Focusing around really bringing the absolute best products that engage consumers both on time and money in the future. I think that's what it's all about. And I think that's perhaps is sometimes more important than any other factor. But that is really driving the business in the end of the day that you are able to bring this product to the market. And I think we see in this dynamics that if you do not so good products, there is no market for it. People doesn't have neither the time or money to engage in those games or products anymore. So I think the strategy in the future will be even more focused on bringing those things to the market and that will be driving all our businesses.
Thanks. And we have a final one here from Klaus. He's asking, how are you feeling about the Star Wars Knights of the Old Republic remake? I know it's your favorite question.
I noticed that anything I say to this becomes a headline. That is my only comment.
So we continue then I guess. Thanks for the presentations and thanks everyone in the room and online and on the telephone conference.
Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.