Eolus Vind AB (publ)

A warm welcome to this presentation of Eolus' results for the fourth quarter 2025. Your presenters today will be myself, Per Vitalsson, CEO, and Katarina Persson, CFO. We will proceed to present in Swedish, but written or verbal questions for the Q&A following the presentation may be submitted in either English or Swedish. Eolus is a leading developer of innovative and scalable solutions for renewable energy. We are well positioned for growth in the demand for renewable energy that follows global electrification and the pursuit of reduced carbon dioxide emissions. Vi tillämpar vår renodlade utvecklarmodell för att skapa värde i en diversifierad portfölj inom land- och havsbaserad vindkraft, solenergi och batterilagringsprojekt på sex olika marknader. Global energy investors, large electric consumers and leading technology suppliers have relied on our 35-year experience. Jag inleder med en genomgång av händelser under kvartalet och en utblick om utvecklingen framåt. Katarina kommer därefter att gå igenom de finansiella resultaten mer ingående. Därefter går vi vidare till frågor och svar. Vi går vidare till bild fyra. Net turnover for the quarter went up to 1,372,000,000 kronor driven by the sale of the wind farms Fågelås, Dollebo and Boarp which in principle was finished and in operation at the transaction time. Therefore, it generates a lot of turnover. So for the whole year 2025, Eolus will hit a turnover record, both in design and in our operation and maintenance services. Rörelseresultatet för kvartalet landade på minus 313 miljoner kronor främst beroende på nedskrivningar av projekt inom havsbaserad vind men också på svagt resultat från sålda projekt. Med anledning av de här nedskrivningarna så kommunicerade vid det preliminära utfallet redan den 27 januari, inkluderande prognos för rörelseresultatet. Utfallet 2025 visar hur vi som renodlad projektutvecklare kan ha en avsevärd tidsförskjutning mellan kassaflöde och resultat i en rapporteringsperiod eller också över verksamhetsår. Katarina kommer gå närmare in på siffrorna senare. Vi går vidare till bild nummer 5. which shows our project portfolio, which is the core of our value creation and consists of over 15 gigawatts of projects distributed on different markets, technologies and different maturity levels. Compared to last quarter, the size of the project portfolio decreased by about 10 gigawatts. This is due to the fact that the pre-written wind power projects, which together had a large volume measured in megawatts, but which were in a very early phase, have been removed from the portfolio. Vi kan notera att USA nu utgör den största enskilda marknaden i vår portfölj i megawatt, vilket speglar en medveten positionering i förhållande till marknadens utveckling. Vi har varit aktiva på den amerikanska marknaden i mer än tio år och har byggt upp en pipeline av projekt som levererar goda affärer. Vi kan också notera att volymen för vår drift- och förvaltningsverksamhet nått en ny toppnotering på nära 1,3 gigawatt under förvaltning efter att Fågelås, Dollebo och Boapp inkluderats i det fjärde kvartalet. Jag bläddrar till sidan 6. We set a turnover record under 2025 with nearly SEK 4 billion in sales and ended the year with about SEK 0.5 billion in cash. We made a total of four sales transactions under 2025 and the sale of Fågelås, Dollebo and Boapp to Franska Mirova in the fourth quarter drove a strong positive cash flow. The declines of the offshore project in Östersjön were a necessary consequence of regulatory insecurity and lack of political support and had a big negative effect on the result in the quarter and for the whole year. Att OX2 nådde slutligt investeringsbeslut för vårt avutrade projekt Fageråsen efter periodens slut innebär ytterligare positivt kassaflöde och resultat till EOLUS i första kvartalet 2026. Så en bra start för oss och det är ett bra kvitto på investerbarheten i svensk landbaserad vindkraft. Vi har en minskad projektbrottföljd till följd av nedskrivningarna och de försäljningarna vi gjorde. Vi gör goda framsteg mot färdig projektfinansiering och försäljningstransaktion för Rockasecka där vi tidigare har säkrat tolling agreement, batterileveransavtal, entreprenadavtal och etableringen pågår enligt tidplan. På nyårsafton så gjorde vi också ett förvärv av ytterligare ett batteriprojekt i mellanfas i sydvästra USA där vi ser goda möjligheter till värdeskapande utifrån vår nu gedigna erfarenhet av liknande projekt. The fourth quarter's sales generated a net cash flow of approximately SEK 500 million, which means that we have returned net debt to the net cash and are entering 2026 with more than SEK 500 million in the cash. For the sake of the completed deadlines, the board communicated on January 27 to bring back the EBIT goal for the years 2025-2027. the other goals are maintained and confirmed, so we see good opportunities to deliver rejection, solidity and capital return to the shareholders according to the goals. In the future, we will continue to focus on cost reductions, diversification and optimal risk allocation through deductions of projects also in earlier stages. Vi har uppdaterat överblicken av våra projekt i närtid på Bild 7. Rockasecka är det projekt som är mest avancerat i försäljningsfas. It is also worth noting the Polish project TRIO, which is new on the list now. It is our most mature project in Poland. It is called TRIO because it is a hybrid project with the possibility to combine both wind, solar and battery technology in one project. vilket bör göra projektet attraktivt för marknaden. Jag nämnde också tidigare det 100 megawatt BESS-projektet i mellanfas i USA som vi förvärvade i fjärde kvartalet och där vi ser goda möjligheter att det projektet ska kunna utvecklas relativt snabbt. Med det så lämnar jag över till Katarina.

Tack Per och hej till alla som ringt in till dagens sändning. Jag kommer starta på sidan nio i presentationen. Per har redan berört våra nyckeltal förutom att vår soliditet nu stigit till 55% att jämföra med 38% vid utgången av 2024. Then we move on to page 10. Since we, with our business model, mainly realize the value in large transactions, our results will vary greatly between quarters. The movement result is driven partly by profit calculation according to the degree of completion in the projects where we project leaders build the nation with the cost responsibility of the buyer's tasks. Vi aktiverar nedlagda utvecklingskostnader i vår balansräkning som projekt under utveckling, projekt under etablering eller förskott till leverantörer. Investeringar i projekt under etablering, det ökar vårt rörelseresultat kraftigt i de fall vi bygger upp projekten i egen bok. Dessa balansposter kostnadsförsägen till fullor när vi avytrar projekten som vi gjort med Fågelås, Dollebo och Boa i det fjärde kvartalet. Vår nettoskuld består både av skuld på koncernnivå och på projektnivå och tenderar då att öka kraftigt i takt med byggnationer som gör egen bok med projektfinansiering. Men notera också att vid utgången av 2025 så hade vi åter en nettokassa. On page 11, you can see the results for the fourth quarter. We had a total turnover of 1,377,000,000 SEK, where the liquidity from the sale of Fågelös, Dollebo and Boar contributed the most. Costs for sold projects were also dominated by the calculation of activated costs from the same project. And then we have the project deductions of 238 million SEK, which also affected the costs in the fourth quarter. Rental costs and currency effects have primarily affected the quarter's financial net. On page 12, we see changes in the balance sheet's access page from the third to the fourth quarter, where the size decreased from just over 3 billion to 2.2 billion. The sales in the quarter contributed that a little more than SEK 1 billion has been lifted from the balance sheet, while the declines contributed to a net reduction of projects under development with about SEK 200 million. The cash was strengthened with more than SEK 500 million following positive cash flows from the quarter's sales. On page 13, we see the balance sheet's own capital and debt side. We saw decreases in both own capital and short-term debt. This is the repayment of the building facility for Fågelås, Dolleborg and Boar, which has been built up to 459 million kronor. At the outset of the quarter, the EU's strong net and cash position was 19 million. And finally, we see on page 14 how the transactions of Fågelås, Dolleborg and Boab in the past quarter have affected the cash flow, both through reduced capital binding as well as amortization of debt. During the quarter, distribution has also been paid out at a total of 37 million kronor, which was decided at the annual referendum in May. And at the beginning of the quarter, the EU had a cash flow of over 0.5 billion Swedish kronor. On page 15, there is an overview of the project that is now under establishment. The Pinova Dillettiska wind project was canceled during the year, and the profit is calculated according to predefined milestones. Rokasecka is under sale and is on the table, and compared to last quarter's table, POUM has been completed and Fågelås Dollebåg Boarp has been canceled and then handed over to customers. And after that, I'll pass it back to Per.

Thank you all for calling into this webcast. We will now proceed to Q&A, during which you are welcome to ask verbal or written questions in either Swedish or English.

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad. To enter the queue, if you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad.

Hi, Lara here from ABG. A few questions from my side. First, I'd like to ask a bit about the landslides. Even though sea-based winds were the hardest hit, så gjorde ni även nedskrivningar relaterade till landsbaserat vindkraftsprojekt. Totala portföljen sjönk ju. Min fråga är lite om risker. Hur bör vi se på nedsiderisken i den kvarvarande portföljen? Finns det utrymme för ytterligare nedskrivningar under året eller hur ska vi se på detta?

Tack, Lara. Yes, of the descriptions for about 240 million kronor, about two-thirds of sea-based wind power and about one-third of other descriptions in the project were made. Vi har långa utvecklingscykler i projekt. Vi gör genomgångar varje kvartal av projektportföljens kvalitet. Och när det händer negativa händelser, till exempel att vi inte skulle få tillstånd eller att vi skulle få nej i projekt helt enkelt, eller att det av andra skäl inte skulle bedömas vara commercially feasible, we handle the down payment. So it is in itself an inherent risk in our business model to develop a project. We will never have a 100% success rate. Vi hade två större projekt, ett i Sverige och ett i Finland, där vi fick negativa besked under Q4 2025. Men vi gör ju löpande så hanterar vi detta i varje kvartal.

Thank you. And a follow-up question on this. You said that assumptions can change and so on. Which assumptions would you say changed the most? Was it electricity prices? Was it investment costs? Or was it the timetable? What was it that you did with the deductions in the wind-based projects?

For the land-based projects? Yes, thank you. Det var en kombination. I ett av fallen var det att vi inte fick tillstånd. Vi fick nej i miljöprövningen mot projektet. Jag ser inte förutsättningar att driva det vidare. I det andra fallet var det ett projekt som vi har jobbat med under många år. men där teknikutvecklingen till slut har sprungit ifrån på projektet och att vi såg att det inte skulle vara kommersiellt försvarbart att driva det vidare.

Okej, tack. Och sen lite om marginaler. Ni skrev ju att Dollebo gård och Fågelås inte hade en impact på Lönsamheten i kvartalet. Kan ni kanske resonera lite om marginalförväntningarna för projektförsäljningen i närtid? Ni skriver ju om en tveksam transaktionsmarknad. Skulle ni säga att vi är långt ifrån normaliserade marginalnivåer? Eller vad förväntar ni er in i 26? Är det fortfarande pressade marginaler?

We expect pressed margins. There are clearly fewer transactions in the market, especially if we see it isolated to the European markets, Sweden and Finland above all. However, in the US, the market for de-risked projects is quite hot, driven by There is a great focus on energy and a great need for power for AI data centers, especially in southwestern USA. Back to the Nordic countries and land-based wind power, we see that that the capex per megawatt hour has started to decrease considerably compared to the wind power plants we bought for Boabdollebo and Fågelås two years ago. And at the same time, we see slightly improved long-term oil price forecasts from the consultancy. So we see, we assess that the market is moving in a positive direction, absolutely.

And if we move on to the ROCA week, can you say something about the income model? Should we expect something similar to what we had in Poem? And how should we think about the construction? In Poem you built with the customer because you saw an interest for it. Do you see a similar interest in Rockafekka or do you prefer to sell the project before you start building?

We can note in hindsight that we did not get paid enough to take the construction risk fully out in POM. In a stronger market, of course, we have lessons from the POM transaction and the implementation. We have said that we intend to sell much earlier and to limit our building risk. So, it is reasonable to expect that there will be some form of earlier project sales. And we repeat that both the sales and financing process are advancing well.

And regarding Fager Åsson, there was now a final investment decision in February. och det här kommer ju utlösa en delbetalning i Q1. Kan vi få någon vägledning kring hur intäktsmodellen kommer att se ut för projektet framöver? Kan vi förvänta oss ytterligare betalningar eller hur ser det ut?

Yes, we get payments when certain milestones are achieved in the project, such as that the customer made an investment decision and paid us. Vi har fått betalt för alla våra nedlagda kostnader så framåt ska man räkna med att det blir hög marginal på de betalningar vi erhåller. Ett par fortsatta betalningar under 2027.

And just one last question from me. Now that you have canceled Fågelbo, Årp and Fågelås, the access to projects during the establishment has decreased significantly on the balance sheet. Could you just, now it's a much smaller post, but which projects are standing for more of that post today?

ROC-ASECA is a project that stands for quite a lot since we have started building the nation and it requires that we put down a certain minimum share of our own capital before we can start to draw on the bank loans that we expect in the project financing. The next question comes from Eric Oberg from DNB Carnegie.

Please go ahead.

Hi. I'm following up with Fageråsen. In the Q4 report, you can, during the quarter's development, read that you have received some payment for Fageråsen. But is this for reduced costs? It has nothing to do with milestone payment related to the customer's FID.

Yes, that is correct. During the fourth quarter, we received a mild increase in payment, but that meant that we received a refund of the lower costs. So no result effect.

And that has nothing to do with the result effect that you showed up front. I think it was at 6.6 million. This is something separate, so to speak. Yes. But the milestone payment related to FID for Fageråsen is to wait in Q1.

Yes, we have received the payment, but it was at the beginning of February, so both the cash flow and the results from it will be provided in Q1.

Good, and just to follow up on the previous questioner, Yes, there are a few additional payments to be kept along the way.

But the one you got in February is the big one. Ja det är en av de större, absolut. Relativt signifikanta belopp kvar att förvänta.

Slutet till kassaflöde och nettosiffran för rörelsekapitalförändringar. Den är på 1.063.000.000. Här ingår försäljningen av de 88 MW. Let's talk a little bit about the size of the variables that counteract this. I assume that it is investments related to Roca Seca, which is like a minus sign here. How much does that matter in that case?

Should I take it, Per? Yes, go ahead. The majority of the difference there is relative to Roca Seca.

In the north of 200 million SEK, you could say, or around 200 million SEK.

Yes, that's it.

Thank you. Are you going to add any additional costs to Q2 for Rockaseca? Or are they mainly taken now before expected sales? Because you talked at the Q3 call about that you are really going to keep track of the costs tied to that and will sell the project before you add any major costs.

Under förutsättningar, alltså antagandet att vi löser en projektfinansiering på liknande sätt som vi gjorde för POM, och att vi gör det i närtid, så är det inga stora utflöden för blockersäcken.

And if that is the case, you can use that facility?

Yes, there is a certain minimum on your own investment that will be achieved before you can use the loan facility. And we have put the very, very most of it down to Q4.

Good. Switching to POM. No result effect in the quarter, but it was not a matter of whether there would be any more result effects, but what we are waiting for is a final payment for POM, so to speak. It is the one you have adjusted down from 25 million dollars to 10 million dollars in Q3. When do you expect to get it?

That's right, the project was completed and reached commercial operation at the beginning of October. We hold on to what we have said before, that we do not expect any significant impact from the project. en kassaflödes effekt i form av slutbetalning från kunden och som vi naturligtvis jobbar för att driva in och jag vill inte säga en särskild perspektiv på det men det jobbar vi med naturligtvis.

Men givet då att det färdigställdes i oktober, finns det någon liksom fortsatt mening difference with the customer that makes the payment take longer time or what is behind this?

Yes, it is reasonable to assume, of course, that it is a project that has been delayed so much that there are dialogues between suppliers in the project and the customer, so to speak, that must be solved in some way.

Men här och nu finns det ingen anledning att tro att den är på mindre än de 7 miljoner dollar som du pratade om i samband med Q3?

Nej, vi gör samma bedömning.

Det förvärvade batteriprojektet i USA, jag tyckte du sa att det stängde rent av på nyårsafton. But you haven't paid for it yet, right? How does the transaction structure look like? Is it something that falls out at Permit? Or have you paid upfront that comes in the queue?

Vi har betalat för projekträttigheter. Det är inga jättestora belopp och vi kommer att betala vissa earnouts till säljaren i framtiden när projektet realiseras. Så en ganska bra och riskminimerad modell för oss.

Good. Can you just repeat, what is your view on OPS in the US now? It was in connection with Q3 that we found out that you had accelerated to pick up bags to get tax credits, etc. But now the window is closed. What is your view on that? Given that you are now buying a new project, what opportunities do you see to implement more projects during the current administration regarding tax credits?

There is absolutely a big demand for battery projects, partly to support the power grid and partly for regulatory reasons where large utilities need to have a certain share battery backup in relation to how much power they sell. The market is naturally affected by changes, usually by investment tax credits. And that must also be reflected in the prices in the form of tolling agreements, i.e. long-term contracts with customers who can drive and use the battery. The bigger focus from the federal administration is clearly negative towards wind power, partly towards solar power, less towards battery facilities. So we have a pretty positive view of the market, absolutely.

But then you mean that BESS doesn't get tax credits anymore, right? You mean that the level of the tolling agreement in some way will compensate for it or will have to compensate for it and actually make the project possible?

Partly you can have qualified the project for tax credits through start-up construction that you can do in a few different ways from a tax point of view and then there is a date when they should be in operation and if they are not in operation at that time then you have to prove to the tax office that there has been continuity in the construction. So it's a complex rule and of course we have to judge from a risk perspective and also how we should Yes, thank you for that.

BESS in Europe, you upgraded BESS to some kind of core technology. What does the pipeline look like here?

Yes, absolutely. It's getting more and more interesting. We have worked with development for several years. We see it primarily as an opportunity to add battery facilities to our other production facilities, land-based wind power and solar facilities, to increase the value of the electricity system. increase capture rates, reduce unbalanced costs. Prices for batteries and battery systems continue to go down. Compared to the US, we have a greater focus on combination facilities here, less on available battery layers. And One example of this is in the case of the Merora sales of Boabdollebo Fogelås, where we have an additional agreement to develop battery lagers in connection with the manufacturers together with the customer. And if they can make investment decisions on these projects, then we get a certain pre-ordered additional purchase discount.

What is on the table there, so to speak? And next question, are there any thoughts on possibly buying back the obligation you issued last year?

Results for 2025 obligations and their distribution in obligation requirements are evaluated by the board as an alternative when it comes to profit allocation and capital allocation and that the board decides to come up with proposals in due time before the annual vote. We like the obligation as a form of financing. Räntenivån blev hög. Det är ingen hemlighet. Det finns ju begränsningar i tid och av villkor naturligtvis när vi kan köpa tillbaka en obligation formellt. So the board wants to come back to this. We have found that we have a slimmer balance sheet, a much stronger cash flow, and that we expect to fill the cash flow further through transactions during 2026. och att de affärer som vi har gjort senast under 2025 i Pineva och Fageråsen är affärer som inte innebär någon kapitalbindning för oss. De här sakerna sammantaget tillsammans med den konstruktionsfacilitet som vi har as banking financing reasonably will give us a fairly large cash and that of course must be addressed how it should be handled.

One last question from me, recurring balance calculation exposure to offshore wind, how big is it?

Thank you.

There are no more phone questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Hi, this is Harald Cavalli-Björkman, Investor Relations Manager at Eolus. I'm going to go through a few written questions. Many have covered the questions so far verbally. From Andreas at SB1 Markets, the question comes. Your goal of 15% ROE means a net profit of SEK 180 million this year and about SEK 200 million next year. How much of your expected revenues will come from land-based wind power and how much from battery projects?

har inte angett den fördelningen någonstans utan resurser ska allokeras till projekt med högst riskjusterad avkastning för att vi ska nå målet om minst 15 % avkastning på eget kapital. Vi kan inte säga någon siffra för det.

We have one question in English as well from Martin. Are there any ongoing attempts to change business model in order to decrease result volatility, like risk sharing or common financing with the aim to decrease capital tie up?

Yes, we develop projects at our own risk. We get best paid for de-risked projects. But as mentioned, in a software market, we of course have to adapt and to minimize risk and that can be seen from the transactions in P-NEVA and Fageråsen, where we have sold the project rights, take very limited construction risk. And the same goes for, as mentioned, the aim for Roca Seca is to sell permit rights earlier. This, of course, gives probably lower margins than if we are willing to take the construction risk, but we've seen that we have not really been rewarded for taking it. And if we can stick with this asset light business model to a larger extent, it will reduce volatility in the deployed capital.

Then I'll go to a question from Örjan Redén at DNB Carnegie. How do you see the cash flow in 2026? Do you still see high cash flow as in 2025, or do you foresee that more will be sold without greater cash flow?

Ja, en högre andel försäljningar utan kapitalbindning då vi har både earn out att hämta hem från de sålda projekten, rocka säckar som ju är det största under 2060, where the goal is to sell the project. The right to take less construction risk, and if we succeed with project financing with a similar high degree of credit for POM, it will not bind much more capital than it does today.

We have a question from Adina Malveklint at ABC Godvinst, regarding the American market and that you in the New York Times write about how federal authorities reduce status on the federal market. Is this something that affects the EU's American projects or are they completely free from federal control?

Vi påverkas absolutt av federal styrning och negativt fokus mot framförallt vindkraft. Extremt mot havsbaserad vindkraft, men vi har inga havsbaserade vindkraftsprojekt i USA, har aldrig haft. Men det finns en paus för uthyrning av mark, federal mark, för landbaserad vindkraft. Det gör att vi prioritise such projects and focus on state-owned and private land. This leads us towards a greater focus on towards solar and, above all, battery projects. And it is good for us. On all markets, we need to have a large enough project portfolio so that we can accelerate and brake according to how the market and the regulatory framework are developed. At the same time, in the USA, there is a huge drive for production, among other things, to support the development of data centers, which is very localized to the geographies in the southwestern USA, where we are active.

Then we have a question from Börje Wernet as well, who wants a comment on the delay in the goal of the accumulated turnover result in connection with the business plan 2025-2027. And yes, a general comment on that, Börje.

The EBIT goal of 1.4 billion over the three years, 2025, 2026, 2027, was introduced because it was a very clear goal, and which really comes together with the withdrawal goal of at least 15% withdrawal on your own capital. But given the deductions, since this 1.4 billion was linked just this year, 25, 26, 27, so with the deductions and a result for 2025 at over minus 300 million kronor, it would basically mean that in order for us to achieve the goal, we would need ungefär 850 miljoner kronor i ebit mål eller liknande per år för 26 och 27 och det är orealistiskt så det är därför som målet har dragits tillbaka. Däremot som konstaterades tidigare här i presentationen och frågorna så kommer det ju krävas Of course, quite a lot of EBIT to achieve the goal of 15% return in the future, and that is what we control the business for and allocate capital for.

The next question comes from Erik Oberg from DNB Carnegie.

Please go ahead. Projektförsäljningar under 2026, vad kan vi hoppas på här? Vad förväntar ni er att komma i mål med utöver Rockasecka som ni såklart försöker sälja? Jag tänker att de flesta projekten som ni listar på slide 7 är väl ready to build för 2027 med ett par undantag, Ölme och Mortomec 2 i Finland. Men nu när ni också har lagt till er strategi att ni kan sälja projekt pre-ready to build, är det liksom några av dem med Construction Start 2027 som kan transaktas rent av under 2026? Så, för att konkretisera frågan, vad förväntar ni er kan säljas under 2026?

As I said, the project on slide 7 is a project that we are lifting up because it is the ones that are closest to the sale and it is reasonable to assume that we will be able to make transactions on several of them during 2026.

But are there any more concrete, longer times sales processes?

Yes, there are several. Without going into individual projects, there are several processes that are in progress.

Thank you.

There are no more phone questions at this time.

I believe that was it for both written and phone questions. So, Per, I think we're done.

Thank you all for listening in to the conference and we wish you all a nice day. Thank you all. Bye.