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Ferroamp AB (publ)
2/13/2025
If you look at our system, you have an energy hub in the middle. It controls solar energy, battery storage and electric car charging. It will be able to control a heat pump and also vehicle 2X, which I will come back to later. That you can use your car, even as a regular battery, that you can charge from the car. Apart from just being able to charge, as is the case today. That is our system. And now it has become so complex that you need help as a consumer to be able to control this in a smart way. And there comes AI in to be able to do a qualified and optimized control. And now it can be a bit complex, but I will try to keep it simple. On the right side is what happens inside the measure, that is, what happens in my house. On the left side, a little more green, is the market that exists outside the measure, where you can participate with your resources to make money. The one that has been most known is FCRD. You have earned less in the last year compared to 2023. But above all, you should remember that a number of other services will come now. And that market will be relevant in 2025 and even in the future. Because you stack different services on top of each other. Men lite mer, många veckor små ger ändå en bra och lukrativ marknad att vara med på. Så att den marknaden bör man vara med på som husägare även framöver. Men det jag ska fokusera på mest nu är den till höger, alltså innanför mätaren. Everyone knows that you have a fixed fee that depends on the insurance. We have often had a phase balancing that makes it possible to have a significantly lower insurance and a lower fixed fee compared to if you do not have an energy hub installed. De här fasta nätavgiften har ju höjts ganska kraftigt under förra året och idag så är det faktiskt så att en stor del av husägarna har en större fast avgift än den rörliga avgiften. Så att det som kostar mest för en husägare är fasta avgifterna i många fall. Det som har tillkommit nu är effekttariffer. You had a large network operator, E.ON, which introduced this on the 1st of January this year. And this hits pretty hard on homeowners. Then it worked like this. The electricity company usually looks at the three hours during the month that you have consumed the most energy. That is, when you have bought the most electricity from the electricity company. The three hours where you have bought the most electricity. And then you take an average of the worst hours. And then it becomes what I would call a fixed fee that affects all the hours you have bought over the whole month. So then it becomes a bit complicated, because then it can be that you have seen that there is a low spot price in an app, and then you have to charge the electric car, you charge your battery in the cellar, you start the heat pump, you start the washing machine, and you maybe take a toilet or something like that. Then you get an extremely high consumption during those hours when it is a low spot price. The problem is that you get extremely high effect rates So at the end of the day, there is a very big risk that you will lose money if you only look at the spot price. I can stop there in that complexity. You can weigh in several factors in this. Marknaden för en vanlig användare blir extremt komplex när jag måste hålla koll på vad mycket kostar elen nu den här timmen och samtidigt hålla koll på att man inte förbrukar för mycket så att man får en sån här dålig timme som driver upp priset på alla timmarna under hela månaden. Att göra den här avvägningen blir ganska svår egentligen. And especially if you add to the left side, if you want to be with and make money on the open market outside the measure, then it can be that you lock up your own battery for the external market and then you may not have the opportunity to cut an effect top. So then you can lose money on your your lack of cutting effect tops, while you can earn money on the open market. And then you have to be careful that the money I earned on the VPP or on the FCRD or something like that, it must be bigger than what I lost on the effect tariff inside. And when you see this complexity, then you understand that it will be difficult for most of them to make these deviations, actually in real time, every hour. And from there, I see a great need for AI in the future. And we have a solution now that we have finalized and will launch in April, where we take into account all these All these things I have talked about, about tariffs and consumption, but also look at and make predictions on how you will consume energy in the future, how the sport price looks, how the weather looks, etc. So you weigh in a lot of factors and make the right choice with the help of the system. And what is a little unique with us is that we not only control one battery in the source, but we also control the solar cells and your electric car charging. So it becomes more powerful if you can control not only the battery in the source, but also the solar cells and the electric car charging. We believe that we have a very good solution here that will show that it gives a great added value to the customers. This is what a lot of people are talking about on the market now, that it's getting complex. And then you have to understand what it is that AI solves, which factors it takes into account, as well as which resources it manages to control. And what you want is that you take into account a lot of different factors and that you can control a lot of different resources. Then you get the best effect on this. And there we think we have succeeded well with that consideration. Moving on to business highlights. What I'm going to highlight here is the collaboration with Ära in early 2024. A very exciting, very good collaboration that we believe in a lot. And we continue to work with it and develop it. We have also talked a lot about savings programs during the year. The market has been slow. We saw the solar cell installations had gone down with... They are less than halved, that market. So we have had to adapt there via savings programs and deductions. Vi har också lanserat nya finansiella mål i slutet på förra året. Sedan har vi i början på det här året hunnit komma ut med tre lite större nyheter. Det är den här AI-tjänsten som jag pratade om tidigare och som jag kommer tillbaka till lite senare. Vi har också gått ut med en lansering av en förserie. to Vehicle2x. This means that you can use your car battery both to support your house, you can support another car and you can also support the network via WPP services. And the last news we released was a cooperation agreement with Svea Solar, which we released on Monday this week.
Financial highlights.
If you start with sales, you can see that Q4 was historically low compared to previous quarter. It is minus 73% compared to previous year's quarter. Keep this in mind when you see this decline. It is less than a third compared to Q4 2023. We see that this is due to the fact that it is still a watchful market. I can also say that a large part of the sales in Q4 has been batteries. What is a bit exciting is that the installations of our systems are still at a stable and okay level during Q4. So we don't see any wear and tear there. This is simply due to the layer displacement that I talked about earlier. The layers of the installers that were added in 2023 are now empty. The layers of the distributors that were also added in 2023 are now normalizing. And when they are also normalized, it will be a normal flow from us in the form of sales and product mix. The gross margin is still not satisfactory. I have previously said that a company like ours should have a gross margin of at least 40%. We hold on to the fact that this is where we should end up at the end of the day. We have two primary things that will take us to a higher gross margin, and that is the product mix. We now mainly sell batteries that have a lower product gross margin. And we also have new cost-optimized products that are about to be finished and will be taken into production. And they also have a significantly stronger margin. You have to keep in mind that Q4 is only a third of the turnover compared to Q4 last year. But despite the much lower turnover, we are improving EBITDA. So it is still negative, it is still not good in any way. But it is still an improvement with 11 million on a significantly lower turnover. So this is a very clear sign that the cost savings we have made, that is, they give effect completely according to plan. And as I said earlier, it will be fully approved in Q2 this year. And then the cost will go down to 20 million. So we have made adjustments to a tougher market and I think that we have a cost level now that is de facto significantly lower and it is on a good level, I would say. Vi har fortfarande en väldigt bra fungerande verksamhet. Vi har inte varit tvungna att göra några dumdristiga nedskärningar, utan det har varit kalkylerade nedskärningar som vi har tagit dem gradvis och genomtänkt. Jag tycker att vi ligger på en bra nivå ur alla aspekter. And the full effect will be in Q2. The cash flow. The negative cash flow is mainly linked to the result and the change in revenue capital. The main part of the storage we have consists of finished products, and these are finished, paid products. This storage has an expected resale value of about 190 million. And when we now get started, when the law has been normalized, not only with installers, but also with distributors now, then this distribution to the distributors will have a great effect on the cash flow. And you can also see on the law that it is starting to go down slowly now, and we see that this will continue this trend during this year, the coming year, 2025. Focus then for 2025. We had a strategy that we communicated at the end of last year together with the new financial goals. There were three parts, there were new sales channels, it was to increase the support of sales in existing ones and it was to create recurring revenues. And there we have actually done a lot. And you start with new sales channels. I can present an example with Svea Solar. It is one of Sweden's leading solar cells and battery installers. They have a capacity for large, very large sales volumes. And we believe that we can present a good Swedish alternative in Svea Solar's portfolio. Then... Coming back to the service that we launched. This is a service that has been requested in our existing sales channels and will strengthen our existing packages. This will be a sales boost, we think, in existing channels. It is also our first real promotion service. So it will have a monthly cost and that means that we have a recurring income flow. I described it quite thoroughly earlier, but if you have any more questions, you can come back when we open up for questions. But here you see a picture on the left of how it will look in the app. Fokus kring utvecklingen för 2025 är förstås samarbete med Ära. Det jobbar vi på väldigt tätt med Ära och vi har en bra progress i i de utvecklingsprojekten. Vi har lanserat nu en förserie med Vehicle2X och här kommer vi att fortsätta att utveckla den. Vi ser att den måste ner i pris och vi måste övertyga biltillverkarna om att de öppnar upp their cars to be able to also charge the car batteries there. We hope and believe that it will come during 2025, but yes, we work a lot on that front. We have talked earlier about next generation cost-optimized products and we are finishing them at the end and we have them ready for production during this year. Then, of course, there is a lot of time that goes into our softwares, to develop optimization and support services. And here I want to point out again that these are optimization and support services that do not need any extra hardware. So there is no extra gateway, or any puck, or any accessory that is needed. Man behöver inte skicka ut någon installatör heller. Den här mjukvaruuppdateringen som det rör sig om kan vi göra på alla våra system over the air. Det finns en massa fördelar med vår stödoptimeringstjänster. Det kommer förstås fortsatt att lägga ned tid på vår mjukvaruutveckling. Tänkte stanna där, öppna för frågor.
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