Holmen AB (publ)

Good morning and welcome to the interim report presentation for the Holmen Group. Today it's me, Henrik Sjölund and Stefan Lorén. We will go through the presentation and then we're happy to take any questions you might have. I know it's a busy day for you so special thank you for taking the time also to discuss with us. Well, the third quarter, challenging market conditions, a bit the same as we actually had after the second quarter. This quarter, well, low demand for wood products. We also have, despite low utilization, all in all, a bit over 700 million. A decent result when it comes to Holmen. If you look at our industry, not only wood products, but also board and paper together, so far this year, during the first nine months, we've been able to deliver 15% return on capital employed. And if we look at our financial position and what we have done, Stefan, we have We have distributed a bit over 3 billion SEK in dividend and buybacks during January to September. And if you look at five year period, we have roughly the same debt to equity ratio today as we had five years ago. We have distributed 13 billion Swedish in total during the five years. Changing subject to forest and wood market. This time, we do see that pulp wood prices start to decline due to lower activities from the mills. We don't see that saw log prices still or have started to come down. On this chart, it looks like they have. But in our case, it's because there are also big differences in price still between southern parts of Sweden and northern parts of Sweden. And when we buy less in south and a bit more north, then it has an effect on the graph, which is what we mean by mixed effect wood cost. Palmpod, on the other hand, the prices are going down. In our case, it's a lag before lower cost reaches our industry and our P&L sheets. Prices are high, Stefan.

Yes, they are. And the result from the forest division was 538 million Swedish krona during the third quarter. That is an increase by some 20 million compared to second quarter and some 50 million compared to the first quarter this year. The gradual higher profit is due to price increases during the year. Looking at their harvesting levels, we harvested 660 000 cubic meters during the third quarter this year. That is approximately 100 000 cubic meters higher than the corresponding period last year. Year to date, the harvesting levels is still 100,000 cubic meters lower than what we saw last year at this point in time. But we anticipate that we will be on par with last year when we close the books for 2025.

So back on track soon. Hopefully. All right. Change into renewable energy. a very special situation or we've had this situation for quite some time now where we see that prices in northern parts of sweden where we have not all but almost all our production of of electricity well prices are simply very very low And it's not easy to make money when prices are that low. And I think we can just... Well, we know that electricity is locked in in the northern parts of Sweden. And there is a lack of transmission capacity. How long it will be like that, that's difficult to answer. There are so many things affecting... whether the price should go up or if it will stay where it is, cables to, for example, Finland, Norway, etc. Stefan, we have said that we have produced with premium to market price.

Does it help? Not that much when we have these low prices in the northern part of Sweden, as you mentioned, Henrik, but still we got some premium above the market price. Maybe we can also comment on the wind power production that we have curtailed during the third quarter. And that is due to the low prices that we see and also the high risk for imbalancing costs. So when we add up the financials, we're still loss making in this segment. And it's, of course, due to these low prices that Henrik mentioned. Can also comment on the hydropower station in Jönsforsen that is now back into production after the rebuild that we have done there.

Yes, thank you. Okay, moving on toward products. I said in the beginning, weak demand and that's obvious when we look at some charts. If you look at US, it's not picking up, it's quite weak. China, very clear. even going down, I would say. And if you look on the production side, well, especially Western Canada producing less, Eastern Canada more or less on the same level. Germany coming down quite a lot after we have the spruce bark beetle infestation that had an effect on how much that was produced a couple of years ago, but now on quite low levels. It's only one place where people seem to run the sawmills more or less full still, and that's in Sweden or in the Nordics, but especially in Sweden. But not in southern parts of Sweden where we have our sawmills. We have curtailed production, especially at the Braaviken sawmill. And I think that part of Sweden has also been the most affected by, well, the drought we had and also later on the infestation from bark beetles. tough situation for sawmills in south of sweden and i think especially where we are price wise well in the beginning of the year as it normally happens prices went up a bit during springtime and now when we came into the third quarter we see that there is price pressure and prices are down some five to ten percent depending on which market you look at and that as we speak it's still some price pressure on wood products prices A lot of negative things, Stefan.

Yes, and it can also be seen in the result, which deteriorated to minus 91 million Swedish kronor during the third quarter. That is due to the lower selling prices that Henrik mentioned. They are down 5-10% quarter over quarter. That also meant that we needed to adjust the value of our finished goods stocks, which had an impact on the result by some 30 million Swedish kronor during the third quarter.

Thank you. Clear. Changing to board and paper. Finally, something positive to talk about, Stefan. Now, to be honest, if you look at demand, it's not so rosy. We are hovering on a level where we are quite far below actually where we were during the pandemic and we are still below where we were before the pandemic. And also at the same time, we know that there is more capacity in the market. So it's quite challenging when it comes to board. In this case, it's board, we take paper afterwards. When it comes to prices, well, they are always stable, at least in our segment, we used to say. Of course, there are changes over time, but it takes time to change the price. In this case, prices are stable, but when you look for marginal volumes to fill up your order books, then there is quite a lot of price pressure. In our case, our order books are okay, but not even we are running absolutely full. We take some market-related downtime. And in line with most players in the market right now. And as I said in the beginning, cautious consumers not spending to fill up order books in the industry. In paper, we have been used to low utilization ratios. They are really low in board now with all the new capacity, but here we talked about it for so long. Capacity has been partly closed and converted, but still also here it's quite a lot of overcapacity. We have been doing well in this market for a long time. Also now we are doing, I'd say, really well. We are not running full. The idea is not to run totally full either, but maybe 80-85% suits us better given the situation with very volatile electricity prices we take. We are used to our favour as well. Prices, also here, roughly the same, fairly stable. But when you look for marginal volumes, there is a lot of competition for the volumes and some price pressure in the market.

Stefan? The results for the third quarter were on par with what we reported in the second quarter. In Q3, we had the annual maintenance shut in the Iggesund mill. That took a toll on the result by some 150 million Swedish kronor. Despite a small increase in energy cost, our energy cost in the division is still very much lower than normal this quarter. And that is due to our ability to adjust to the volatility in the electricity market, as Henrik mentioned. We also had some tailwind from seasonal and lower personnel cost in Q3. Yeah.

And given the circumstances, a really good result, I must say. All right. Just remember what kind of a company we are. We are a forest owning company or land owning company, and we do everything we can in order to extract as much value as possible from the land we own in different ways. Thank you. And by that, we are happy to take on any questions you have.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of Charlie Morrisons with DNT. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Henrik, Stefan. Thank you for taking my questions. I had a few short ones. Firstly, on the timing of the pulpwood costs coming down, can you just clarify, was that clearly a headwind to profitability of the forest segment? Was that already simultaneously a tailwind to profitability in the consumption segments like board and paper? Or does that come through with a lag? And can you give any sort of quantification for what you're seeing kind of right now on a kind of year-on-year basis, for example? And then secondly, you mentioned on board and paper lower energy costs. Can you just clarify, were you talking both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter? And then just finally, on the tax ruling, can you clarify, will that create a cash inflow or does that just release a provision for you? Thank you.

I think it's all questions for you. Maybe the first one. Yes, there is a lag when pulpwood prices come down. It takes like six months before it reaches the industry.

Yeah, and if we take the other one when it comes to our lower electricity cost, it's approximately in Q3, 250 million Swedish lower than normal. In Q2, we had even lower electricity cost than we had in Q3, but still much lower than normal in Q3. Regarding the tax item, we anticipate that that will turn into cash flow during the fourth quarter.

Okay, great. Sorry, just going back to the first one. So you said a lag when prices come down on pulpwood, but you already face that headwind in the forest segment, or there's a lag, further lag, and there's further headwinds come in the forest segment and further tailwind in the industrial segment?

The price are moving quite slowly in the forest segment as it does for the industry, as Henrik mentions. So we have not seen that kind of headwind yet in the forest. How it will turn out, we'll see going forward.

Okay. And yeah, is there any quantification you can push around the scale of the movements you've seen so far?

I think it's too early to comment on and quantify the effects going forward. We've just seen that the pulpwood prices are starting to come down and we need to come back on the quantification in the next quarter, I think.

That is quite a big difference, how the market feels when it comes to pulpwood and saw logs, where it's still quite a lot of competition, as you saw on the slide, for saw logs in Sweden. But pulpwood is definitely on its way down.

Great, okay, thank you very much.

Thank you. Mr. Linos, Mr. Larsen Linos with CEP, can you hear us?

I can hear you now. Thanks for taking my question, and good morning. Could you please dissect the wood products result in the third quarter that you already mentioned, the 30 million kroner of impairment, and also what to expect in the fourth quarter in terms of product price and saw log cost, delta, and other moving parts, please?

Shall we take the...

The first one with the write-down of the stock, maybe didn't catch you right there, Linus, but we did a write-down of 30 million Swedish kronor in the third quarter. And that is due to the lower prices that we've seen in the market. Then we needed to adjust the stock value. So it's as simple as that.

When it comes to the pulpwood prices and the saw log prices, as I said before, pulpwood prices, well, they are on the way down. But remember, it takes some time before we get a lower cost in our industry. And we buy roughly half of what we make use of comes from our own forest. But also remember, we have a lot more forest up in the north where prices are, especially for saw logs, they are lower than in the south of Sweden. But also when it comes to saw logs, still a lot of competition. And so far, prices have not come down, at least not as we see it.

Okay. So, I mean, in terms of direction for the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, are you still expecting higher saw log costs and lower finished product prices? Or what's the direction? If you don't want to quantify, what's the direction of the both?

So log prices are more or less flat from where we are now. And selling price is hard to comment, but the market is quite soft. So we need to see where things are going when we sum up the fourth quarter, Linus.

Wood products in general still, Linus, I'd say it's price pressure in the market.

Right, right. Okay. And maybe a similar question for board and paper, what you're seeing in terms of Delta Q4 and Q3 in terms of price and cost, at least directionally.

Well, we don't comment that often. Going forward, Linus, what we had in Q3 that is exceptional is, of course, the maintenance shot in the Iggesund mill. And as always, lower personnel costs during Q3 that will increase then quarter over quarter when we look into Q4. But comment on pricing and other cost factors with it.

It's always more difficult to fill up the order books at the end of the year when the new contracts are being negotiated at the same time. Normally, demand is a bit lower, but that you know from before.

And any initial thoughts on price negotiations going into next year?

Nope. We don't comment on that, Linus. But as I said before, both when it comes to board and paper, our prices are fairly stable. But when you look for new volumes that you don't have a contract with right now, then also now we feel a bit of price pressure. It's not easy to get marginal volumes. Regarding discussions for next year, it's too early. We'll see what happens.

And maybe just one final on the market dynamics and pricing. We've now been discussing geopolitics and tariffs for the past couple of quarters. What's the latest on that in your market segments and how are you seeing that and how are you feeling about that?

We take the tariff question, I think you already know. But for wood products now, there is a 10% tariff on wood products going into the US. And for board and paper, it's 15%. We don't have that much volumes going to the US. And of course, it's also an ongoing discussion who should take the cost. The one selling into the market or the one importing to the market. And right now in board, it's roughly 50-50 and paper roughly the same. It's something that's ongoing.

Got it. And also like dynamically in terms of trade flows, etc. How are you seeing that that whole discussion impacting supply-demand balances in your various segments?

If you look at indirect effects, for example, Chinese board coming into Europe, we cannot see it yet. Might happen, but so far we don't see any drastic or big volumes coming into Europe. Great, thanks. Okay, thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Ioannis Masvoulas with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Good morning, both. Thank you very much for the presentation. Three questions left from my side. When it comes to the graphic paper segment, we've seen several cartelments across the industry in Europe year to date, but mostly on the mechanical grades, less so on chemical grades. Can you talk about that dynamic? What do you think is driving that? Is it more of a different demand dynamics between the two? And also, can you talk about how you see that materializing, whether we're going to see more capacity cuts in the coming months or majority of what you expect in the short term is already announced? Then secondly, again, on wood products, which was, I guess, the main weakness of on the results today, you've only trimmed the deliveries by 2%, quarter over quarter. Is that a function of potentially destocking and production is actually lower? And how should we think about deliveries going into Q4 and early 26? And lastly, you mentioned curtailments on the wind side, given the challenging margin dynamics. Can you give an indication on maybe the yield that your windmills are running at or maybe a mix between wind and hydro generation and how that evolved over the past 12 months? Thank you.

Shall we start with paper and graphic papers? We are in the mechanical segment, but we also compete with wood-free paper with some of our products. So we see everything from newsprint to wood-free uncoated more or less as one market when we look into the business we do. It's overcapacity. Demand is dropping. You are absolutely right. There is some capacity taken out. Whether there will be more taken out in the future, we don't know. We only look at what has been officially stopped, taken out, or at least announced. And to have a good balance, we need to do what we need to do. But the market needs to take out a lot more capacity. A couple of more million tons, to be honest. But on the other hand, it's also as we have, we are quite flexible and we have learned to also operate in an environment where you can't run absolutely full. Nobody can run absolutely full. You have to be a bit more flexible today. So I think the rules of the game have changed a bit as well. But we need to take out more to have a good balance. That's clear. And we are fairly happy with our operating rates, slightly higher than average in the market at least. Stefan, next one.

Try to remember them. I think it was about the delivery volumes from the wood product segment in Q3. Yes, there is a destocking, but that is mainly due to seasonality, lower production in Q3 during vacation periods. If we look at production volumes so far this year compared to last year, we are down some 10%, which partly is explained by the rebuild in the Iggesund sawmill that we did in the first quarter. But also, as Henrik mentioned, we've taken down production in the southern part of Sweden due to the high log cost that we see there. Then I think it was curtailment on wind power. We have used our wind power turbines to approximately 50% during the third quarter. And that is due to both low prices in combination with high risk for imbalancing costs when you run the wind farms. Hydropower stations, we run as normal, try to maximize the profit we can get from them, producing when the prices are as high as they can be for the moment and reduce production when prices are low. Which wasn't very high. Which wasn't very high.

No.

I think it was it. Hopefully. Ionis, did we catch it all?

Yeah, that was very clear. Maybe a quick follow-up on... on the graphic paper side. So you mentioned the 250 million, again, gain from... better electricity management and therefore lower power costs. If we were to add it, to assume that you didn't have that gain, can you talk about profitability in the graphic paper segment for Q3, like leaving boards outside just looking at graphic? Would it be a bit positive? And would it be a bit positive just to get a sense of the underlying profit trends? Thank you.

Yes, the underlying business is EBIT profit, even if you extract the effect from the electricity.

Maybe we would have been running it slightly different.

For sure, profit. Okay, thanks very much. Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Kulberg. Lars Gustifel, please go ahead.

Thank you for taking my question. Most of them have been answered, but I just have a couple of follow-ups. On China specifically, of course, they have a significant excess supply, and I appreciate your comments about not reaching European shores. But we did see, for example, Brazil now asking for tariff protection from China. So I guess directly from the European perspective, How are you seeing the Asian markets in general as an export destination? You do have some old ones going into that market. And, you know, I can only assume it's not great. So are you seeing sort of repatriation of tons back to Europe? And equally so, given the tariff situation and weeks of demand in the U.S., is that an issue with, again, repatriation of tons that normally would have been exported from Europe? Is that a topic that you're seeing in your business and in general for the industry? The last point is really on saw log pricing. You've commented many quarters now, of course, that they're insanely high relative to the underlying demand trends and pricing for wood products. And the pressure is pretty acute, as we can tell from your numbers. So what does it take for this market to give on the log price side?

Shall we start with geopolitics and how it affects our business? You almost answered the questions, I think. Yes, it's much more difficult to sell into Asia, especially for marginal business, to find add-on business, so to say, because it's a lot of competition. If you compare to a number of years ago, we have had capacity in China for a long time, but they are both good. And it's more now than before. And the market is not picking up, as we have said. So that's more difficult. When it comes to how much of the volumes that will come into Europe, according to statistics I see, and when I speak to our people, I don't see a big change, at least not yet. But you're right, there is a risk, of course, that it could be shifts in volumes between different parts of the world. And then with the US, you're right again, yes, it is. We are a bit dependent as Europeans on exporting not only to Asia, but also to the US to have a decent supply-demand balance. Roughly 20% when it comes to board should be sold somewhere else than in Europe. That's kind of the European business idea.

Second? And on the specifics around European volumes returning, You can't sell it abroad. Does that put incremental pressure on Europe? I can only assume that the pricing still is better in Europe than it would be overseas.

So far, not much has happened, but there is a risk that that could be the case. Absolutely. But we haven't really seen it yet, to be honest. I think the big issue here is whether we can export as much as we need to export to different parts of the world. Because the total capacity in Europe is simply too big for Europe. It needs to be shipped both to the US and to Asia in different ways. We ship more to Asia than, let's say we do the business in the US, for example, but we ship the volumes to Asia to be converted, etc. So it's a different kind of business also in Asia. Not all of them are up to competition with the Chinese producers.

Second question about the saw logs and the dynamics. I think it was what needs to happen to the saw log prices to come down. Well, we've done what we can do so far. We've taken down production in the southern part of Sweden where the log costs are simply too high for us to get the financials in line with our expectations. how other people will treat their sawmills we will see going forward. Not much we can do about it in the short term.

Normally the sawmills when they you need to come down quite a lot in profitability also to variable cost more or less before they stop. That's what has happened in history and then the wood market changes. Saw logs become cheaper. But obviously right now they are simply too expensive and prices for wood products is under pressure. So very tough situation. Different though in northern parts of Sweden where saw logs are cheaper.

There's no downward pressure on logs today at all.

Of course, all of us try to get it down, but so far we haven't seen it happening, to be honest. That's what we have to... That's where we are right now. And in our case, big-time production, if it's too expensive, that's the first thing you do. Makes sense. Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Koffer. Christian with Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

All right. Thanks, operator. Just a question from my side. Firstly, you talked a little bit about the power prices, the big differences in the north versus the south, and maybe it has been even more substantial differences the last couple of quarters. From your perspective, I mean, you are active in both areas, especially in especially in the water and maybe area three, right? So the big difference is, are those only driven by the bottlenecking in transmission? What do you think?

That's the main cause. But also we've seen quite a lot of water in the system up in the north that had put pressure to produce hydropower during the first nine months of this year. Now the situation is a bit more normal when we look at the levels in our reservoirs at least.

Yes, but if you look at third quarter, I think you answered the question more or less because if there would have been sufficient transmission capacity situation would have been different as well with lower prices in SE3 and higher in SE2 and SE1. That's clear.

Has it been bigger differences with the new flow basis, you think?

It's quite a short period of time and it's a combination of factors when it comes to cables being out of operation, lots of water in the system. So it's quite early to say that it's the flow base that has created this situation.

Also, when you have revision of nuclear, you have to take down the transmission capacity bit, which has had an influence, that's clear. But exactly, there are so many different factors now to understand. how things are going to be. So let's wait and see a bit.

And then we heard from another producer this morning mentioned that they start to see some quality light in the end of the tunnel when it comes to customer behavior. Not exactly for Q4, but maybe a little bit better on the demand side going into next year. Is that something that you start to see on your customer base as well?

You mean consumption in general for forest industry products?

Yeah, demand from your customers. It's starting to be a little bit better.

Could be, but if you look at the statistics so far, what has happened, and also if I look into our order books, I can't really say that things have changed. I'd say that we have more overcapacity, especially on board, than what we have been used to for many years. So demand really needs to pick up quite a lot before we get a healthy supply-demand balance again. I think it will take some time.

Yeah, sure. Thanks very much.

Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of call. Hawthorne with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on the pricing commentary being stable, I mean, we're seeing a lot of the folding box board price indices and graphic paper price indices decline. So I'm just wondering how Holman sits within that. Could you talk a little bit around, on the paper side, the book paper business, which I imagine is kind of longer contract and slightly different to the index pricing? And then on your folding carton business, could you just remind us how much is more premium, longer-term contract versus traditional folding carton of your business? And when you look into 2026, you talked about spot pressures, but should we be assuming that some of the annual contracts, there will be a little bit of pressure on those into 2026? Thank you.

Would you like to start? First of all, when it comes to negotiations for next year, we don't want to comment that. We are starting to negotiate soon, but... And when it comes to prices in Europe, in board, as I said, especially you mentioned folding box board and we have bigger volumes in solid bleach board where you are even more into a niche where prices tend to be very stable over time. They do change, but it takes time. And that's the case also right now for us that most of our business, they are stable when it comes to board. Slightly more pressure in general in folding box board than in solid bleach board. The challenge is more when you need marginal volumes to take on new business, then there is price pressure. What that means for next year is too early to say. And then it was how many of our contracts are longer term for two, three years, etc.

It's a mixture, some shorter ones, some one to two year tenors.

We have some slightly longer contracts, but not that many. And when it comes to paper, we don't have any long term contracts, maximum one year. It's gone the other way, some contracts quarterly or half year as well. Book paper is a good segment where we've been extremely well done well and we are doing well. Prices have been a bit more stable than graphic paper in general but also there a lot of contracts will be renegotiated from first of January and second quarter etc. It's no big difference in that sense but the more stable segment both when it comes to demand development and also pricing. And fewer producers, of course.

And then maybe just to follow up on the Canadian producers in wood products. You know, they're under a lot of pressure considering the duties that have impacted them. And you've showed some good charts on wood staff, particularly around British Columbia, sawmills coming down. Are you starting to see... better ability to compete with the Canadians in the U.S. or any commentary you can provide on the Canadian sawmill side and how that's impacting your business. Thank you.

Normally in the US, they consume like 100 million cubic meters. 20 of those come from Canada and roughly 5 from Europe. And now when the Canadians have 45%, well, they have a different wood cost as a base. It's not really comparable to tariffs we have with 10% in Europe. but normally when you have increased tariffs and you have that much of import into us you would see prices going up in the us but so far we haven't seen much of that and if you look at the future prices well they go up and down quite a lot week to week almost right now if i would say something i would say well they are up five percent something but that's last week etc so uh so far demand And the balance in the US has not made prices come up to cover for the tariff cost. Not for the Canadians, not for the Europeans, not to be fully compensated. No, hasn't happened yet.

Fair enough. So in absence of housing demand, is it really kind of sawmill closures in Canada, which might be the supply chain?

Supply is down, but not enough. Demand is even lower, as it looks right now.

Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Mithil Balav with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. A couple of follow-ups. Firstly, can you comment on the number of transactions in the Swedish forest and how are transaction pricing Looking this year, because last couple of years it has been flat to down. So any comment on that would be helpful. And then secondly, can you just talk about the profit split for the board and paper business? Is it still broadly 50-50?

Well, if you start with the forest transaction market, most of the transactions are being done during the second half of the year. There's also a lag in the system when they are to be registered, etc. So it's quite limited of transactions so far this year, as we can see. So it's hard to draw the conclusions for the full year already now. But what we've seen so far is no major changes in the property prices in Sweden. The next question is the split of profitability between board and paper. Well, board is heavily affected by the maintenance shots that we have had both in Q2 and Q3. So it's hard to comment on the exact numbers in Q3. But both profitable? Both profitable, of course. Yes.

Thank you.

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

Thank you very much for good questions, good discussion. Look forward to see you soon again. Thank you.