Lindab International AB (publ)

Hello and welcome to this call. My name is Ola Ringdahl. I'm the president and CEO for Lindab Group and next to me I have our CFO Lars Inna. Let's start with some Q3 highlights. Lindab reported its highest third quarter sales ever. Business area ventilation systems, which represents around 75% of Lindab's total business, had a solid development with the highest sales for a third quarter, driven by structural growth and some currency effects. Business area profile systems was impacted by a weaker market but also has high comparison numbers from the same period previous year. Profile systems has high exposure to the Swedish market where construction activity has slowed down significantly in the last year. The operating profit has gradually improved during the year and for quarter three it exceeded 10% for the group and for both business areas. We see that as a strong achievement given the current market conditions. The group's operating margin in Q3 was 10.8%, generating an operating profit of 351 million SEK. Our cash flow was very strong in the third quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was 444 million, twice as high as the previous year. All in all, we are very pleased with the results in this quarter. We managed to defend our margins and market shares despite a lower market demand. Lindab is in good shape. Now let's take a closer look on the sales and margins on the next slides. Lindab's total revenue has been growing for the past two years, mainly thanks to acquisitions, but also as a consequence of price increases to compensate for higher raw material costs and other inflationary effects. Business area ventilation systems has continued to grow strongly and reported its highest third quarter ever in terms of sales. Sales for ventilation systems increased by 7% compared to the third quarter of 22. Acquisitions contributed positively by 7%. Currency by 8%. However, organic growth was negative by 8%, and there were no positive price effects versus previous year. European construction activity has slowed down as a result of cost inflation, increased interest rates and continued turbulent global conditions. The market in Western Europe, which is Lindab's largest ventilation market, was relatively stable with growth in important markets such as France and Italy, but somewhat of a decline in Germany. The Nordic region is relatively weaker than the continental Europe. Business area profile systems has high exposure to the Swedish market where construction activity has been slowing down significantly. And the Swedish market represents roughly half of profile systems total business and therefore has a major impact on the business area as a whole. For the third quarter, organic sales growth for profile systems was negative by 18%, but it would be fair to point out that the comparison numbers in 2022 were historically high. Our assessment is that the demand situation has somewhat stabilized on current levels of profile systems. Now let's look at operating profits. Since Q3 of 22, fluctuating raw material prices have put pressure on our gross margin and consequently on our operating margin, especially for profile systems. We have previously communicated that we would have these adverse effects during several quarters. From the month of June this year, we can see that the negative raw material effects are near zero for ventilation systems. But in profile systems, most of the adverse raw material effects are behind us. However, in Eastern Europe, which represents around 20% of profile sales, the adverse effects will also exist in the fourth quarter. Despite weaker market conditions in Europe, ventilation systems delivered an operating margin of 11.2% in the quarter and the highest operating profit ever for a single quarter for ventilation. The demand for energy-efficient ventilation systems has partly offset the downturn in construction activity. Acquisitions have contributed positively. Business area profile systems was affected by significantly lower demand in addition to the mentioned raw material effect. However, we have seen gradually improving margins during 2023, and the business area reached 10.2% operating margin in the third quarter, which we were very pleased to see. During the second quarter, Lindab initiated a cost savings program in all parts of the group to strengthen earnings. We have already seen positive effects from this cost saving program during the third quarter. The actions have full effect from October, at an annual cost-saving rate of 150 million SEK. It can also be mentioned that efficiency improvements throughout the group have reduced the number of employees by 7% in comparable units over the last 12 months. In addition to the cost-saving activities, we are reviewing if there is a need for further structural changes to improve Lindab's profitability margin and to reduce the cyclicality of sales and earnings in the future. I now hand over to our CFO Lars Yvonne to guide us through our financial position.

Thank you, Ola. Linda had a strong cash flow during the third quarter. Our cash flow from operating activities increased to 444 million SEK compared to 260 million in the third quarter last year. The strengthened cash flow from operating activities was primarily related to changes in working capital due to less capital tied in stock. Our free cash flow adjusted for M&A increased to 377 million versus 156 in Q3 last year. Ruling 12 months cash flow from operating activities increased to 1.6 billion circa versus 379 million in the previous 12 months. Let's now look deeper into our net debt situation. has increased slightly compared to previous year and amounted to 3.3 billion, of which 1.3 billion is related to leasing liabilities. The increased net debt EBITDA ratio from 1.3 and of Q3 last year to 2.0 this year is mainly affected by our acquisition activities the last 12 months. We have introduced a new supplementary definition in KPI this quarter. financial net debt and financial net debt EBTA. To clarify our financial position and net debt. Financial net debt is net debt excluding leasing liabilities and pension related items. Financial net debt EBTA is average financial net debt in relation to EBTA excluding RFRS 16 and excluding leasing liabilities and pension related items. This ratio is at 1.4 end of September and give us the possibility to be active and focused on acquired growth going forward. We continue to focus on our activities to strengthen cash flow and a special attention to our stock and days in stock. And I'm giving back the word back to Ola. Thank you.

Thank you Lars. And we will talk a bit further about the journey we are on and how we are building a stronger Linda. So let's take a little look at where we come from and where we're heading. Looking back, we can see that Lindab has developed through a number of phases. After the financial crisis in 2008, Lindab had to focus on reducing debt. Few investments were made in the business and the generated profits were used to get Lindab's balance sheet back on track. On average, our revenue during that period was around 7 billion, with a 6% EBIT margin on average. Slightly more than half of our revenue came from the ventilation business. I joined the CEO in 2018, and the company was in better shape by then, thankfully, but it was still underinvested with several loss-making units. We managed to raise the profitability quite fast by focusing on fewer markets and fewer product areas. 32 countries were reduced to 20 countries. One business area was divested and we grew the share of the ventilation business to around 70% during the period, or as it is today, 75%. The increased profitability allowed us to launch the largest investment program in Lindab's history with the objective to strengthen Lindab's efficiency, capacity and possibilities for profitable growth. In 2020, we started to acquire high quality companies to strengthen our offering and market shares in the core markets in Europe. Now we are at the end of our investment program. The company has grown to 13 billion in sales. And with a continued focus on profitability, we can redirect our generated profits and substantial cash flow to increase the growth speed. The target for 2027 is to reach 20 billion in revenue with at least 10% operating margin. And this will be achieved in a combination of organic and acquired growth. But it is fair to say that M&A will be the main driver. We are building the leading ventilation company in Europe. In the short term, we have a number of areas that we are focusing on to drive Lindab's profitable growth. We continue to implement actions to reduce the sensitivity to market fluctuations. Product areas and geographies that do not meet our high standards of organic growth possibilities and stable profitability will be evaluated. We will also continue with cost control and continuous improvements of the profitability. We see that in markets where we have a strong market position, the profitability is higher. That is why it's important for us to continue to develop our product offering, as many markets have local preferences and building standards. We also see a potential in improving our current product offering, sharpening the functionality and production efficiency. The investment program has been ongoing for several years, and it's essential to follow up on the initial plan and ensure that the necessary actions are taken to harvest the full effects and the full potential from each investment. Sustainability, that has been high up on Lindab's agenda for several years. And this is an area where both legislation and customer demands are moving quickly. Lindab is and will be at the forefront within sustainability. Finally, some of the first acquisitions we made have now been part of Lindab for two or soon three years. And we are fine tuning our support to these acquisitions to make sure that we benefit from the synergies from having these companies in our group. Now let's look at the three last areas on this slide starting with the investments. Investment program. This has been as you know at the top of our agenda since 2019. It's very rewarding to see how the benefits are very visible and I think that can also be An important explanation why we are performing well despite tougher market conditions. We see results in higher production efficiency, higher capacity and a safer working environment. We have now come to a point where no major investment decisions are planned and we have made very few investments decisions during this year. So the investment level is gradually declining. We are expecting it to be on around 250 million in the year 2025, and it will be around 250 to 300 million in 2024. In the third quarter, the investments amounted to 68 million, which is slightly lower than Q3 last year. We move on to acquisitions. Lindab's strategy is to acquire well-managed, successful companies that complement our offering in selected regions and product areas. The acquired companies continue to operate independently under their own brands, while at the same time benefiting from Lindab's sourcing agreements, expertise and sales network. In October, just after the end of the third quarter, we acquired the British ventilation company Husvent. HealthVent is one of UK's leading manufacturers and distributors of ventilation products. The company has its own production of circular, oval and rectangular ventilation ducts, as well as distribution of a wide range of ventilation products. HealthVent has 10 branches in the UK, some in locations where Lindab does not currently operate. With around 105 employees and an annual turnover of 280 million, and an operating margin that is higher than Lindab's, we think that Husvent is a perfect addition to our business in the UK. In total, we have made 22 acquisitions since 2020, adding 3 billion in revenue. And as you can see in the chart, around 90% of the acquired revenue is within the ventilation business. We have also divested businesses with a turnover of in total 1.3 billion since 2020. And the largest divestment was the business area of strong building systems. And sometimes we talk about steel. We talk about steel prices. This time we will talk about other types of steel. Linda has recently taken another step towards reducing the climate impact of our products. by extending the standard product range with ventilation ducts in recycled steel. Recycled steel and fossil-free steel are the two materials that Lindab has chosen to reduce both its own and its customers' CO2 emissions. Fossil-free steel, unlike recycled steel, is not yet available in large-scale production. the first volume deliveries are expected to start in 2026. The recycled steel is already available in sufficient volumes for ventilation ducts to be included in Lindab's standard product range. It contains 75% recycled material resulting in a 62% reduction in the climate impact. Lindab receives its recycled steel from ArcelorMittal's steel mill in Europe and has ongoing dialogues with other steel suppliers. Lindab has previously communicated that the company is the first supplier in the world to offer ventilation ducts in fossil-free steel. Thanks to a test delivery from SSAB, Lindab will have access to it before the large-scale production is expected to start. The fossil-free steel from the test delivery will be used for selected customer projects as it is only available in a small quantity, unlike the products in recycled steel that can be offered on an ongoing basis. For Lindab and for our customers, sustainability is business critical. Lindab is and will be the leader in climate efficient ventilation solutions. Let's go to our final slide and talk about the outlook and our priorities. The European ventilation market is estimated to have declined by around 5%. The Nordic region has had more challenging market conditions than the Western and Southern Europe. The ventilation market has shown relative stability due to increased renovation and demand for energy efficient ventilation systems. Our assessment is that the European installation market will remain weak over the next 12 months. We are prepared for this market to continue to be relatively slow, and we have adapted our resources to the current demand. Profile Systems has high exposure to the Swedish market when new construction has slowed down. Here to date, the market is estimated to have declined by 20%. After some tough quarters, the situation is beginning to stabilize. Our capacity has been adjusted to the current market situation and the implemented cost program is reaching its full potential during October. So what are Lindab's near-term priorities? Well, naturally, in the current economic environment, we are working with proactive measures, especially in business area profile systems, where the margins need to improve and where the market demand is weaker. We are adjusting our pricing to strengthen gross margins and to mitigate the inflation effects. We are continuing to reduce our working capital to free up cash flow. and we intend to continue to pursue attractive acquisition opportunities within ventilation. The European ventilation industry is fragmented and there are plenty of opportunities to create long-term value. We have a clear plan for how Linda will continue to develop positively and after the transformation of the business in recent years Linda is in good shape and we are now ready to enter the next phase towards 2027. We now conclude the presentation and we open up for questions.

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Sophia Sawling from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Thank you. Hi Ola and Lars.

Two questions I would like to start with. So this improved margin in the ventilation system division of 11.2 compared to the 10% same period last year. Could you give some color on how much is derived from actual acquisitions, cost saving plan and perhaps lower input material? And then also another question on ventilation system. You mentioned that West and South Europe was stable during the quarter, and also that there was an increased demand for energy efficient solutions. Do you expect this to continue, and is it limited to any geographical regions outside the Nordics, for example? Or if you can give some comment on that. Those are my two first questions.

Thank you. I remember the second one better than the first one, so let me try to answer that. I will admit it is difficult to exactly know how many orders or how much volume is going specifically to the energy efficiency renovation segment. When talking to our main customer group, which is the installation companies, clearly they an increased activity in the past 18 months in that segment. So I believe it is a strong driver, but quantifying it is rather difficult for us. But I think it is not isolated to one specific country or market in Europe. This is something overall and driven by the higher energy prices primarily. Secondarily, it is of course driven by several sustainability factors where we need to improve the energy efficiency of buildings throughout Europe to reach the climate targets. So this will be a long-term growth driver for Lindab. It's not isolated to this very year or this very quarter. This will be an ongoing tailwind for many years to come stimulating demand for these types of solutions and Linda is extremely well positioned with the best ventilation system in the world when it comes to air ducts and creating tight systems. Then you had a question about why this margin improvement in ventilation systems versus previous year. And there are several factors. One is the cost reduction and focus on efficiency. The cost reduction activities, we have 7% fewer people in comparable units compared to a year ago. Not all of that is connected to the specific program we announced in June. But there are many ongoing actions to adapt cost to the current market situation second effect is we started to have adverse raw material effect in the third quarter last year they ended by june of this year so that that helps the gross margin to recover a bit and then third factor that you speculated a bit about the acquisitions. Well, the acquisitions are contributing slightly positively to the margin improvement, but it's not a major explanation factor. I think efficiency improvement and improved gross margin from raw material effect, those are the two main ones.

All right, thank you. And while we're talking about raw material and inventory level. So you mentioned that you're starting to normalize this inventory level per Q3. Should we expect that you need to build up inventory again already in Q4 or will that happen into 2024? If you can give some more color on that.

That is a clear no. We still have room to reduce both raw material inventory and finished goods inventory and we are quite focused on that to trim it down to optimal levels given the current market demand situation. One and a half year ago only we saw a terrible war starting in Europe and of course the natural reaction after that was to stock raw materials and make sure that you had not only toilet paper but also eel and everything. And I think what we see now is a kind of European destocking effect where everybody's trying to trim their stocks to a more normal level. So I think cash flow, we have quite a positive outlook on the coming quarters. We can optimize and create strong cash flows in the coming quarters.

All right. And my final question is on M&A. So regards your ambition to continue with this M&A. So how far are you willing then to go in terms of capital structure level? You have a net debt EBITDA now of 2.0 and you introduced this financial net debt so that was 1.4 but your financial target is 3 so what can we expect?

We have quite a lot of headroom there generating such strong cash flows and we are introducing the second measurement on the calling it financial net debts to EBITDA. Many other companies do that. With Lindab's portfolio of leased properties, we have a relatively high leasing liability for rental agreement, basically. But what is really the interest bearing debt from the banks? And I think it is important for us to clarify that we are definitely not deeply in debt. Financial net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.4 is not in any way high. So we have quite a lot of headroom there and we are also generating strong cash flow and the investment program is coming to its end. So I believe we will have quite a lot of acquisition capacity in the next 12 months, but also, of course, beyond that.

All right. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Thank you, Sofia.

The next question comes from Carl Ragnastam from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Good morning. It's Carl here from Nordea. A couple of questions from me as well. I mean, I'm a bit confused. curious to know a bit more about the cost saving program you obviously launched here or communicated in the last report. I mean when you communicated it sounds like it would materialize from late September also as you said full effect October but what effect did that specific program have on your earnings in both profiles as well partly as in ventilation in the quarter?

We started at the beginning of Q3. It has been ramping up with full effect from October. I think it's fair to say that it has 50% effect during the third quarter. Dividing 150 by 4 and then taking 50% of that. So we are talking roughly 20 million in cost saving distributed around half-half on profile systems and ventilation systems.

Okay, very good. And the remaining obviously it sounded like it would be more tilted towards profile when you announced it or has anything changed or is it maybe an initial impact?

Relative to

sales or to revenue it is it is till okay fine okay fine okay okay very good and also you said that you still have raw material headwinds in Eastern Europe in your profile business continue entering Q4 as well could you help me with the dynamic there is it because of your sort of is it the lower inventory turnover or is it your maybe price and action that that comes into play or what why do you still have headwinds in Eastern Europe

The volume decline in Eastern Europe on certain product groups was quite dramatic for some months. It's stabilizing now, but there were some months with very low sales in those units. Those countries bordering to Ukraine basically, they made sure that they had enough stock to take them through very difficult supply situation. So they had too much stock sales went down quite a lot so simply it takes longer time to consume the stock. Now the demand is picking up and we are handling the stock situation very actively and we believe by the end of the year this will not be This will not be something that we will blame beyond Q4.

Okay, sounds fair. And also on ventilation systems, organic growth, it's sequentially worsened or fairly flattish, but the margins sequentially worsened. Have you seen any changes during the quarter? Is it worsening or is it same as you say for profile stabilizing at the current level or how should we look at it? Because I guess it's a little bit more late cyclical compared to profile right?

I would agree with that it's a bit more late in the cycle than profile systems. So normally what we see in profile systems we see six to nine months later in ventilation systems just given the nature of how you are erecting and finishing building projects. So while we have seen a a reduced rate of decline for profile systems versus previous year. You are correct that the gap seems to increase a bit for ventilation systems. We see some weakening trends in some of the continental Europe markets. Germany, some subsidy programs have ended in the middle of the summer, so we started august to say a little bit weaker demand for certain product types that have been where there have been german government subsidies for for energy renovation for example nothing dramatical but i think the increasing interest rates they are affecting more countries than sweden so so i believe that there will be a continue the ventilation market or the demand will continue at the current level or slightly lower but we are not foreseeing any dramatic changes in the market demand.

Sounds fair and a bit on pricing coming back to that I mean how have you done any changes to your if you're looking on a high level here if you've done any changes to your pricing during the quarter We've seen steel coming down a bit, right? Have you lowered prices or could you continue to keep up your fairly good prices here? And have you seen your competitors making any big changes in pricing? I mean, you are obviously a price leader, so do they continue to follow you or do they try to lower in order to gain shares?

When... The market volume is down. There will always be some actors in the market who try to get some orders for their half empty factories, maybe. We are not going down that road. We are prioritizing profitability over volume. Then, of course, we like to win. So it's not like we're giving away orders. We enjoy being successful in our sales. So I think We have a very dedicated organization. They have defended market shares but also defended the price levels. Over time you see a slight price erosion. I think our average prices now are one to two percent lower than the net prices than they were two quarters ago. And this means that we don't get any help in our revenue from say pricing growth. It's probably on the contrary some negative effects there. But it is important for us to defend the market position and also try to get the optimal gross margins. And I think that we have done that quite well in the quarter. In the organization they are quite i would say they are very professional and experienced in handling that and then there is one more thing in in more turbulent times in tougher times you know customers tend to choose the reliable supplier the supplier they know will be there also after the after the bad times are over so They know that Lindab is a very strong, reliable company. We will be there also next year and next decade. And that is an advantage for us versus any newcomer or any very price aggressive competitor.

Sounds fair. And the final one from my side, if I may. On M&A, as you said, becoming a more important part of your growth, which we've seen. Could you give any idea if you have any LOIs currently or how many companies you have in warm discussions?

You wish.

Nice try. But you have an active pipeline at least.

We have a very interesting pipeline and we have had a very interesting pipeline for the last three years and I think that the results of that are seen. And as important as it is to have a good pipeline, we also have a very high success rate in the discussions we initiate. And perhaps even more important than that, the development of the acquired companies is very satisfying. Yesterday, the board of Lindab Group visited Felderer in Germany. We had a board meeting there and a review of the business. and we are very pleased to see how well the acquired companies are developing I must say.

Very good, sounds comforting.

Thank you. Thank you Carl.

The next question comes from Anders Jafs from Kepler Chouvriax. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning everyone. That's Kepler Chouvriax. Yeah, so just jumping to the margin on ventilation, I just have a question. I know you made some acquisition previously which had a lower margin than the group. If I'm not mistaken, maybe it was Felderer that you communicated in a previous conf call had a margin of around 5%, if I'm not mistaken. How has that increased or changed up until now? up until today? Is that just to get maybe an idea of how quickly you can raise margins in acquired businesses?

That's a fair question. I mean, Felder was our largest acquisitions to date among these 22 acquisitions made. They entered the group on somewhere 4-5% EBIT margin. Since then, they have managed to grow sales by around 25% and EBIT levels are now 7-8%. The increased profit in money, but also the increase in profitability, it's very satisfying to see. Now, the German construction market is not fantastic either. celebrate yet but really they are taking the right steps and also we enjoy internal synergies when they are shifting their purchasing to to linda factories giving additional benefits of course then felder they were the key to also opening up new acquisition possibilities so not even a year after they entered the group they acquired a rectangular ventilation company with margins substantially higher than their own margins. So they are in their turn creating a profitable group of companies. So I think it gives additional effects, but I think I answered your question that we do manage to improve profitability. Yeah, of course. If you're a distribution company in Germany, let's not dream about 20% profitability, but at least it should be approaching the 10%.

Yeah, well, that's very interesting. Thank you for the answer. And also jumping to the margin on profile as well. So just if I understood everything correctly, if we take let's assume all variables stays the same, but you continue with the cost program, additional couple of quarters, then this will continue to act as a positive factor on the margin side on profile going forward as well.

Some slight help from diminishing negative raw material effects and And of course, we will meet lower comparison numbers quite soon. So hopefully we are not that far away from showing year over year improved performance.

All right. Yeah, perfect. Perfect. Thank you. And just last question. You mentioned in the report that obviously all Nordic markets are showing weakness. But is there any Nordic market that's maybe not as bad as the others?

Well, to make sure we are not bragging about the Swedish performance, I think Sweden is the big man of Europe. That is not true for all the Nordic countries. Sometimes we lump them together, but The sales level in Norway has been relatively stable. The Norwegian economy is following its own rules. In Denmark, parts of the business have been running quite well. It's a bit of a mixed picture. In Finland, they are affected by the higher interest rates, lower activity level, definitely. But our team in Finland, they are so bloody good that they are delivering very strong results no matter what. So I'm extremely pleased with how we are performing in Finland, but the market is quite a lot down. Not as bad as Sweden, but I think if you looked at other companies similar to Lindab, their activities in Finland, they would also say that it's a tough market right now.

Yeah. Perfect, and regarding that maybe it looks a bit more stable in Denmark. Are there more renovation projects there currently in Denmark or is it the same split as the group?

I passed by the Copenhagen airport yesterday evening and I think one explanation is the currency. They can still buy things with that currency which is more difficult for us living in Sweden. There is still relatively good activity in the Danish construction industry. Denmark has always been one of the core markets for Lindab. We have a very strong position there. We do well in ventilation. It's been a bit tougher in profile systems.

Okay, perfect. Thank you, Ola and Lars. It's all for me. Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star 5 on your telephone keypad. There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Then from Lars Unar and myself, we say thank you for listening in and Enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you. Thank you.