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Norion Bank AB
2/5/2025
Welcome to the Noryo Bank Q4 report 2024. My name is Martin Åsman and I am the CEO of Mehaja, Peter Olsson, and I am the CEO of CFO. Let us start directly with page 2, which is a summary of the fourth quarter. As usual, we look far to the left. We see that we have a loan book, a credit stock, which has increased to 50.3 billion. A good increase. We increase by 11% throughout the year. We increase by 1.8 billion between Q3 and Q4. A very good quarter. We looked at Q3 and Q4 last year, we increased by 1.4, but we are increasing even more this quarter. So very good growth. The revenues are quite unchanged, 922 million kronor. The QOE rate is an increase of almost 33%. Peter will come in on details. But we have a part of the one-time effect of this quarter, which is related to Wallet, which has had a very good growth. The same thing with Factoring, which has also had a growth more than usual. So it is a bit related to the costs with those parts. Then we have had a part of the costs related to organizational changes and some system changes. So to clean up, we have a QOE rate of around 30. But as I said, Peter will come in on even more details about it. The growth result has increased to 383 million kronor. A drop in capital of 13.5%. As you all know, we are accumulating our profit to our own capital. We have had a profit of about 1.25 billion over the year, so therefore the drop in capital is decreasing. But it has increased to 13.5%. Let's look at the capital relationship. Very good levels. The capital relationship is decreasing by 30 points. The total capital relationship is increasing by 20 points to 16.9. Some other things that happened in the quarter. We have bought or we will finish this business during the second quarter. It is then DNB's Swedish credit card business, which we will take over in the beginning of the second quarter. We are very happy. Now we can step over to the credit card business. We will talk about that later. We also intend to buy stocks back during the year for up to 500 million kronor. We will talk about that later. Then we have a summary. We will continue to look at different business areas. We will start on page 3. Let's look at the business sector. Very good growth. They grew by 850 million between Q3 and Q4. Mainly driven by Factoring and our Norway. We have said earlier that the small and medium-sized companies, especially medium-sized, are where we want to position ourselves in the Nordic region. We deliver financial solutions to medium-sized companies. 30 to 300 million is where we want to focus on. We are fixing this situation. This quarter is also very good growth. Also a lot of activity. There is a great interest in making business. Certainly with the pension situation, it has been planned where the interest goes. It has made it a very good activity this quarter. What can we say about that? No marginal pressure. We continue to be able to take the margin we have been able to do earlier. The quality of the products continues to be very good. We have a little longer duration in the stock. We are happy to find the same demand from 14 to 18 months in duration, which is also very pleasing. So a super good quarter for our business sector. We go to page 4 and look at properties. Also here a completely different risk value and a different interest in making business within properties. We grow here with 600 million between the quarters. The stock grows by 8% and again a lot of activity, a lot of customer dialogues. Other than that, we have nothing more to say. No major changes in the geographies or in any industries where we are active. So we can go to page 5 and get a little more properties. We start here with the senior loan. It continues to improve. The senior loan portfolio is now 63% and one year ago this number was 58%. The same goes for the junior share. We have 37% and Q4 was 23% and Q4 was 42%. The share or average of LTV senior and junior loans are not making any major changes. We look at value development, which I usually talk about in our property portfolio. Quite unchanged value changes this quarter, just like the previous quarter. The previous quarter was a lower price pressure on the properties. But it has decreased quite a bit in the last quarter, which is very pleasing. Again, it is a completely different interest and will to make business compared to the first quarter of 2024. The fact that they remain, we have too big volumes in step 2 and step 3. On the other hand, the growth rate has decreased, which is good in itself. I also think it is good plans to reduce the volumes this year. There is another interest in making business. We have good dialogues with customers who have challenges and we have good plans to be able to reduce the volumes this year. We move on to page 6 and talk about the consumer part. We start with private loans. Again, we have worked with this part a lot in recent years. Finally, there is no point in ordering, except that it goes at the pace we want. A reasonable stock growth, which is again still the joy of the whole 24. We have a lot of flow-induced channels. We are up to 55% flow-induced channels in some months, and we end up at 45% this year. Why is that good? Because it is a lower purchase cost, which also means lower credit losses over time. And the customers are still a bit in the long run. So this is a very good quarter for private again, a very good quarter. The competition situation continues to be good for us. We managed to keep a good margin with a clear low risk, so the risk-based We are now in the second quarter. This is the close quarter, which is the beginning of the second quarter. We got a positive result immediately. We go overnight from about 25,000 to 100,000 cards. Cards have been on our agenda for a while. We have chosen to grow the card business. We have chosen to focus on the parts of companies, properties, roles and private loans. That is where we have had the biggest improvements in the Now we have done that and now we are taking a big turn in our card business. We came up directly to 100,000 cards. We get a very good platform and a good system to continue to grow this business. So this is a clear step forward. We go to page 8 and end with the payments. This is our Wallet solution. The stock market has regained its momentum in 2024. If we look at the transaction volume in the Nordic region, the transactions are up about 10-12%. We are performing this very well. We have a much higher growth rate in transaction volume than the stock market. Here we have a very good momentum. We have transaction volume of almost 5.5 billion in Q4, all-time high. The loan book is growing by about 300 million, both in Q3 and the previous year. We now have 5.5 million active customers. This is a product that has contributed to our total banking profitability. I think it will contribute even more in the future. We see a very high potential in Wallet. We have made a lot of investments in the organization during Q4 and we will do so at the beginning of this year and the rest of 2025. So Wallet is a very good quarter. We will move on to page 9 and have a little more details and figures. I will hand over to Peter.
Thank you. We start by looking at the revenues. They are rising to 922 million here in the fourth quarter. I think we are maintaining a good level, especially given where we are in the interest rate and the continued effects we have from the volumes we have in stage 3. The rental net is, as usual, the big driver of our revenue. We also have a good supply chain, but in the rest it is small revenue streams. The NIMM is unchanged compared to Q3. It rises to .7% and even though it is down a bit during the last few years, it is also the drive of where we are in the interest rate. We will come back to that a little later. We continue to page 10. We are talking about the effects from the volume in stage 3 and our careful way of handling the revenue stream. As we know, the revenue does not correspond to the credits because we see concrete evidence of in-payments. When the NIMM is reported, it rises to .7% and in this quarter there are small changes. We have about 100 points of effect from this careful approach. If we had put that back, the NIMM would have gone up to 7.7%. But as I said, there are no real changes during this quarter and the effect is largely unchanged compared to both Q2 and Q3. We go on to page 11. We go back to where we are in the interest rate, which we have pointed out several times. We took advantage of the NIMM when the revenue stream rose. Now it rose downwards. You can see on the green line that our total profit against customers came down, according to the expected figure. I will remind you that about 70% of our stock is in some form Ibor-connected. These changes do not happen automatically. We have also talked about the fact that our funding costs are going down. We see that they do during this quarter, just as we have expected. In general, the NIMM is unchanged compared to Q3. Looking forward, we can see that the Ibor-revenue continues to be in a downward trend. We can't exclude that we can have a small NIMM press left during the first half of the year, as we see it right now. But that the big press is still behind us. Then we will see what happens on the market, not least on the rental side, where NIMM is taking the lead. But we will not exclude a small press for the rest of the year. We continue since 2012. If we talk about the funding and liquidity, we can see that we are strengthening our regulatory liquidity measure. We are up 320% in the fourth quarter. This is according to FI's new legal statement. With this method, the LCR rose by Q3 to 204%. A huge step up in this regard. The same thing with the NSFR. We are strengthening it from 103 to 112% according to the new method. We have a very active funding market under Q4. It has improved. It has gone a little faster than we had hoped for when we sat there with the last quarter report. But we have taken care of the good opportunities that have been in the market. In total, we have taken in about 5 billion in extra surplus liquidity only during the fourth quarter. If we go to the 13th and see this a little more untechnically, if we take our total funding side in relation to the loan stock, we have historically been quite constant around 1.0 times. You can see here in Q4 how we have structurally increased the liquidity level in the bank. Here it is about 5 billion in extra surplus liquidity, as I mentioned earlier. Back to the Nimre scenario, it is flat at .7% during the quarter. This is despite the extra surplus liquidity we have taken in. We have a weak negative carry on the extra liquidity we have taken in. But as a whole, we do not see any big impact on Nimre during this quarter. When we talk about liquidity, we should also pay attention to comment on the advanced situation. Many of you have probably noted that they are closing down their investment platform, the product called Sparcomto Plus, where we are one of several actors. We have had a very long and good collaboration with Avanza. We are in constructive discussions on how to handle this situation. We can also say that we have made the decision, given the legal situation we are in during the autumn. As I said, we are in good discussions with Avanza. They have also communicated to the market that this will take time and that the development will take place in subordinate forms. They have also confirmed this to us, so we feel very safe in that situation. It is a bit too early to say exactly how this transition will go. But you can say that the Avanza platform has become less valuable to us after FI's legal situation. We have worked to diversify our funding. We have done this for a longer period of time. We accelerated the efforts in the autumn in conjunction with the FI's message. Now that Avanza has closed down its platform, the leaders are not already making any changes. We are simply continuing on the same path. Since 2014, if we go in and look at the different segments, we start with the company segment. Martin was in on this earlier. A very good momentum. The stock is up almost 850 million here under Q4. It is an increase during the quarter of 8%. In the last year, the stock has increased by 19%. The revenues during the corresponding period are up by 21%. Again, it is a stock financing market, which is good for us. The NIMM is completely unchanged compared to the previous quarter and is up to 7.3%. Since 2015, the stock segment. Volume wise, a slightly calmer quarter, even if we increase here too. The volumes are up with almost 600 million. The NIMM is flat, up to 4.7%. Again, here you see the big effect we have from what I talked about earlier with cash accounting. How we are careful and not affected by the 3-volume step. Since 2016, the private segment. As Martin said, we are doing very well. We have a good momentum that we want to keep. We are increasing with about 150 million. Volume wise, here under Q4. The NIMM is up to 6.7%. We should remember that it is largely unchanged compared to Q3. We talked about the positive effect on about 15 million in Q3. If we had cleaned it, we would see a stable development on the NIMM. Over time, we have seen a weakly decreasing NIMM. It is partly driven by the interest rate and the technical effects I talked about earlier. But also that we have moved towards better customers, better quality of war. A slightly lower price tag, but we expect to get back this over time through lower risk and lower war losses. Since 2017, payments, volleys, very good momentum as Martin said. The transaction volumes are over 5.4 billion. We also see that the stock is increasing to just over 3 billion. An increase of 10%. We have seen a strong growth in Q4. We have isolated for the fourth quarter and up with about the same volume as last year. Q4 is seasonally strong for volleys. We have both Blackweek and Julhandel, which drives up the transaction volumes and drives up the stock. The revenues are well up on a good level. We should also remember that there is a time lag in the business model when it comes to volleys. During Q4, we have built volume and the revenue side will come with a small time shift. So as a whole, a very strong quarter for volleys. We have been going on since 2018 and look at the costs. It goes up to 303 million here during Q4. Martin was in on it initially that there are certain specific things that drive the cost up during this quarter. To start with, we have then made certain organizational changes. We have also made a larger system change regarding our factoring product. These two effects together sum up to about 15 million here during Q4. We also have, given the strong business volumes we have seen, both on volleys and on the factoring side during Q4, a lot of seasonally driven costs. On the payment side, with the strong transaction volumes, it drives extraordinarily high costs. For example, credit announcements, e-signals and other transaction related costs. On the factoring side, it is partly transaction related, but also related to the fact that we do not take credit risk outside our core markets. During this quarter, the flows have come from some other geographies where we have increased costs for credit insurances to risk-minimize the exposures. In total, we estimate that these seasonal effects go up to about 10 million. If we put together these input posts and seasonal effects, they go up to about 25 million. If we had adjusted that, the cost mass would go up to just under 280 million kronor, and the K-input would have been about 30% adjusted for this. On the side of the 19, our credit loss reservations go up to 237 million kronor during the quarter, correspondingly 1.9%. We continue to see a good trend, we see better and better credit quality in our portfolios. Even if the credit loss percentage has dropped, we continue to strengthen our reservation rates both on the company side and on the private side. We usually talk specifically about the reservation rates for stage 3 privately. They increase isolated during Q4 with about 70 points and now go up to 55.8%. On the side of the 20, we have a moving result that has gone up to 383 million. We have a reduction in our own capital, which has gone up to 13.5%. Martin mentioned that we have accumulated about 1.25 billion in our own capital during 2024. I think the result is good, mainly due to the way we handle the three-volume and where we are in the interest rate. It is a stable and good result where we are. On the side of 21, a little bit about the capital position. We have a core capital relationship that goes up to 15.8%. It is down by about 30 points compared to Q3. This is explained by the strong flows we have during Q4. We have a annual cost of operation risks. Together, we reduce the core capital relationship. At the same time, the total capital is increasing from 16.7 to 16.9%. The explanation for this is that we have emitted another 300 million in T2 capital during Q4. There we have a total of 600 million outstanding during the year. We stand strong and have good bubbles in relation to our regulatory requirements. On the side of 22, we look at the total capital ratio of 16.9%. It gives us a total capital buffer of 376 points. This is at the lowest level of the total capital. This is to be set in relation to our financial goal of maintaining the buffer levels between 2 and 400 points. We are in the upper part of this interval. Then we have a financial goal, a distribution policy, that says that we should return the surplus capital to the shareholders. This is what we will be able to do in 2025. We intend to buy stocks back in 2025 for up to 500 million SEK. This will gradually happen during the year. If we had counted 500 million from the capital during the year, it would have had an impact on about 90 points. We expect that these stock purchases will be able to be started sometime during the second quarter. The reason we are talking about Q2 is that there are two conditions for this to be able to start. For the first one, the year's vote must renew the commissioning we have regarding stock purchases. We also expect conditions from the financial inspection to be able to start this. Then we go to page 23 and I leave back to Martin again.
Thank you, Peter. Before we summarize the quarter and move forward, you probably saw all the press reports we sent out on Friday. This is the first time that EFI has decided to continue with a pending tax review. EFI has sent a request for an extension and we will give our opinion on EFI's preliminary investigations in the latest 21 February. As the press has mentioned, EFI's review period is from the 30th to the 4th of 2022, beginning of 2023. We have put in a lot of work in the last few years with processes and routines to counter the pending tax review. It is a very extensive work and I think you will never be able to do it without improving and making the process more efficient. The process is also being extended all the time, so it is important to be involved in the development. We believe that the feedback we received from EFI regarding the period of investigation, we have had a review plan and the absolute amount of the risks EFI has pointed out. That was the press report. If we summarize the quarter and move forward, we can go through the different business areas. If we start to look at the private sector, private sector continues to do well. We have said that we are in a good competition situation, we have managed to have very good risk-adjusted emissions, we have a little lower margin of return with clear credit quality, very much flow in our own channels, which has been a goal for a long time. So, private is going very well, we continue to think well. We will also go into Finland with private loans, we will start to look at Finland. We have been there before, we will go into Finland now during the first quarter. The card is also very exciting, we can now gas the card, we go from 24,000 cards to 100,000 cards with start in Q2. We have a system platform that makes the whole card business can take off. We have been looking at this for a while now, it is very fun to get started with the card business. Companies use very good activity, a lot of customer dialogues, high growth rate during the year and Q4. We should not expect that growth rate during Q1, we see a lot of mortgages that will come in here in the beginning of Q1, and we are really happy about that. Look at the properties, our challenge there is still the same, we have volume in step 2 and step 3. We see, because of the pension situation, a completely different activity and interest in doing business. We have very good expectations that the customers who have had challenges the last 6-9 months with their pension payments can come up with alternatives to find other solutions so that we can reduce volume in step 3 during this year. When in time, it is difficult to say, but I look forward to being able to reduce these during the first half year. We have, and then we take Walli, incredibly good momentum with Walli. We have put resources, we have organized and recruited people within the customer part and responsible within Walli who have given very good results. We need to be a little more visible in Walli, we work to have the position of the market that we deserve. So Walli has had a good quarter and we are looking forward to growing Walli further here and will invest in that product in the coming time. So we are very happy with Walli and look forward to further improved development. Then we can say, we have Peter inside the capital situation, very good balance, a good capital relationship. And with that we have intended to buy shares of up to 500 million kronor during the year. That was what Peter and I had, so we thank you for taking the time to listen and open up for questions. Thank you.
During the question time, the participants can ask questions by pressing the square 5 on their phone. If you want to return your question, kindly press square 6. The next question comes from Jacob Heslevik from SCB. Good morning.
I can start with a clear question. In the message you wrote that the loan through your own channels has increased and that your own channel has risen to 45%. Is it your own channel that has risen to 45% on the loan or was it the loan?
The loan has risen to 45% throughout the year and individual quarters to 55%. So it is the loan through your own channels and private loans.
But you also wrote that the loan through your own channels has increased in the capital, right?
No, I don't think so. It has certainly done so, but the 45% here is at least the loan through private loans.
But how much do you have through your own channels on the loan? The NSEF has increased quite a bit in the quarter.
We have never given the splits on how our financing side of the loan relates to our own channels and different platforms. The reason for that is that there will be a bad competition dynamic against the competitors we have on the different platforms. But as I said, we have been working on this for a long time to diversify the whole financing side. One reason is that we have increased the loan through our own channels. It has increased during the last year.
I guess we will think that it will continue to increase during the year when you get your own loan through the advanced platform. That should actually give a little extra cost, because you seem to pay around 55 points higher interest on your own platform compared to the advanced platform today. Do you think it will stop
at 55 points?
I just thought that 55 points is reasonable, that the extra cost is dropped per crown that is moved from the advanced to your channel. Or do you think that when I turn to resources, NOBA, BOGO etc. I also need to move over to your own channel so that there can be upward pressure?
I think it is a little early to say exactly how that dynamic will take off. It also depends on which channels we replace the volumes that are to be replaced with. Some comments to that is that the comparison you make is just the pure interest rate. The same applies to the investment. We also pay the fees to the different platforms and companies we work with. So it is not safe that the -in-cost changes completely in this way. It also depends on how we replace the volumes. As I said during the presentation, if we take Avanza as an example, their volumes have become less valuable to us. So when we move these volumes, depending on what types of sources and channels we talk about, there can also be a scenario where we do not need the same volume as other channels. But that we can maintain the regulatory liquidity measures at the corresponding level. And that will also have an impact on the cost picture.
We have also worked for a long time with diversifying, to flow our own channels and other currencies. This is just to continue the journey we have been on. For example, we also go into racing in Ireland and Finland and maybe also to rent another commodity than just collectors. So this is just a part of the journey we have been on. As I said, Avanza's platform has become less valuable to us and to everyone, in terms of the remaining sales of EFI.
Thank you for that. And if we just have one last question about funding. You said you took in 5 billion extra excess liquidity in the quarter. Is it because you need more funding for the DNB credit card portfolio or are you going to emit wholesale to fund it?
To start with, that portfolio is relatively limited in size. We expect that the volumes there are about 700 million. So this extra excess liquidity we have taken in, you will see as a conscious, active work to structurally increase the NSFR level from the 103 that we have performed, reported in conjunction with Q3 to the 112 that we reported in conjunction with the annual shift. As we said, we do not see that the underlying liquidity risk in the bank has increased due to the legal status of EFI. However, we want to work with a higher buffer level in relation to the regulatory measure. So it is a pure consequence of the journey we have done.
Thank you. And one last question before I leave. NIMM was very stable in all segments except the consumer portfolio, which fell a bit in the quarter, also down a bit year after year. Was it the large volumes that came in at the end of the quarter? Is it a timing effect or do you see a price pressure in the market right now?
We do not see any underlying price pressure in the market. As I said in the presentation, we also had a positive entry effect in Q3 at about 15 million. If you had adjusted it, NIMM is relatively unchanged here under Q4. However, over a slightly longer period of time, we have seen a slightly declining NIMM. This is explained partly by the dynamics of the interest cycle and the overriding NIMM effect. But also that we have gradually moved towards a slightly better liquidity quality with a slightly lower price increase. But this is not to be equated with the fact that there is a price pressure in the market. We expect to get back over time through lower liquidity losses. The
short answer is that we do not see any. We still see a very good contrast situation in the private sector.
Great, thank you very
much.
The next question comes from Emil Jonsson from DNB. Thank
you very much. Good morning. I was going to start by asking about the funding. The deposit was up to 7-8 billion in the quarter. What channels have driven the increase?
We have been actively involved in all areas of the deposit. We have increased our own channel. We have also increased with different types of platforms. But it is mainly platforms outside of Sweden where there is a different customer dynamic. It is more about a longer run time on the deposit, which makes it possible to get better results on the regulatory liquidity model.
How much of the deposit in the fee that is bound on the deposit is more or less than the whole?
What do you mean by the whole?
We have been able to split the whole deposit earlier on the binding time. How much of
the deposit is in the fee? The fee has more overnight input than the whole deposit. That is one of the reasons for the advance platform. The customer clientele tends to question very short run times on the deposit. Which is positive for us in the situation we are in when we are going to phase out the volumes.
Thank you for the interview. Welcome to the dialogues you have had with Avanza. Do you think you will have more or less than one year to switch out the financing to other financing channels?
The exact time plan is under development and it is too early to say. But I would guess we will have a longer time. Thank
you. A question about the costs. If we think about the moving parts in the next quarter. I assume it is a little under the cost of inflation. We have the 15 million that will probably disappear. The other 10 million that you mentioned probably move with the volume of the payments. Is there something else that I miss? Is there another important driver to keep in mind? No,
you are quite right when you exclude the 25 you are talking about.
A question about the repurchase. Have you started a dialogue with FI about that? Is there any risk that they might have come up with changes? Since the AML investigation is still ongoing when the repurchase begins.
It is quite standard with the last request that will go in from our side to the financial inspection. That is why we say that we cannot start immediately. We expect to be able to start in the next quarter. If they have any opinions on that, I have no idea. We do not expect that.
We have a hard time saying anything about the capital situation. We would have something else to investigate. But it is not clear when it is clear.
One last question. The AML investigation is now over. More parts of what FI has already been done.
Can
you tell us when you started the repurchase?
We started the repurchase. We had a plan before the investigation period. We have been working on this for many years. Then we have followed the repurchase to the point and exactly the time we have been working on. We have been working on this for a long time. We will continue to work on this. It is a moving matter. We have been working on this for a long time. Like all other banks.
Thank you. Thank you.
The next question is from Patrick Brattelius from ABG.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Do you hear me?
Yes.
Great. One more question about the costs. We got the adjusted cost base. How do we think about the coming year? What will drive the costs? In the form of inflation and higher wage costs. Is it around the mid-single digits? Is it a little bit more of a question about the cost base? Is it a running assumption? Or is it something that... You talked about the Wally here on the call. That it should be considered that the costs will be a little higher in 2025. How should we think
about that? Inflation has been a little bit, but there is still some inflation. Of course there are wage increases. There is no big drama there. We are doing some investments in Wally. And mainly from the second quarter. But there will probably not be any drama in the costs. I'm looking at Peter here. No,
I agree. And a big factor to what has driven the wage increase here in 2024. And a big factor to what has driven the wage increase here in 2024. And a big factor to what has driven the wage increase here in 2024. We have said earlier that we have invested a lot of money on the Wally. And not just on the AML issues, but on different types of rules. It can be AML, Dora, GDPR, Basel IV and much more. It can be AML, Dora, GDPR, Basel IV and much more. That requires IT investments and support. They are not in a way over. But I don't see the same rate of increase in 2025 as we have seen in 2024. But I don't see the same rate of increase in 2025 as we have seen in 2024. So that can also repair it a bit. However, it is a pleasure to switch over the investments we make however, it is a pleasure to switch over the investments we make to more business driven investments in
the future. That is what Peter had in response, Patrik.
Great, canon. Great, canon. And in the future on the financial goal and what we called the distribution goal and what we called the distribution goal Should we expect that the return on investment is the primary way to return capital to the shareholders?
If you look at how our distribution policy is formulated, it is linked to our financial goal of sending capital and that in that month there is a potential surplus, then we will return it to our shareholders. This time we choose to shift back to the original way through repurchase. It is the way that the owners and the board have chosen this time. Then we will see what happens next.
Is there any thought that as long as you are under book-front value, you see more value in repurchase and if you are under book-front value, then maybe the distribution is preferred? Or is there any path that you can follow?
I don't think you should see the repurchase program as a speculation in the value of the stock. It is a method choice to shift money back, thank you.
Yes, thank you. Something that we haven't talked so much about is that if you look at your pension net, both in percentage and in absolute growth, then ADDR is the segment that grows most. It has risen to 100 million in 2024 despite the loan book being down 100 million. How should we expect this segment to develop forward? Can we go through some drives that have made the pension net so strong and growth in this segment?
Yes, we can do that. The big treasury effects are due to the fact that we have gradually moved in a cycle of interest that is not at zero or minus. We have had both positive and bad interest rates and now we have also been in a situation where we have changed the whole liquidity level in the bank. One of the big effects on this side is landing on the overhead side.
We had a higher interest rate in 2023 and 2024, but it looks like in the falling pension environment we have a higher net of interest. Should we expect that between a lower interest rate, lower liquidity portfolio and lower net of interest in the future? Or are there some things that I miss in my reasoning?
To begin with, it is not a linear reasoning with what the net of interest is and where the IBO interest rates are. It is the timing effects that I have been talking about and how our funding costs relative to where we can place the liquidity we have. In the beginning, there are no linear effects, but over time, one should expect that with a lower interest rate environment, the net of interest will go down.
Thank you. My last question is about the negative impact on NIMM from stage 3. I think we have been in this earlier this quarter, but if you look at the crystal ball, have you had a better feeling about when you can expect this to happen? We see a reversal of this effect on NIMM. Is it something that can happen already in stage 1 or is this a longer period and nothing to expect in the coming quarter?
I had the feeling when we were in Q4 when the volume went up that we would have the solution for some things in Q4. It has been a bit of a hit since the year shift. I think we will see improvements in the first half of the year. I dare not speculate if it will be Q1 or Q4, but in the first half of the year, we believe with the information we have today that we will see improvements.
Thank you. We are on 1% increase according to slide 10. When you talk about improvements, what do you see as a noticeable improvement in your world that you get a feeling of potential effect?
If we have increased 4 billion in stage 3, I am talking about significant improvements, 4 billion and lower. I don't want to say exactly what it will be. It is better to deliver on it than to guess. With the information we have today, we see improvements in the first half. I don't want to quantify it.
We think it is a different situation to find the counterpart of the capitalization. It has been an active fixed income market. You have more room to emit more hybrid capital. How come you have not been more active during the second half of 2024 when the market has been so hot and you are trying to do even more?
To start with, we have been active. We emitted 300 million late in Q2 and here under Q4 additional 300 million. You can always discuss the pace of that. But there is also an insight to spread out emissions, future, fallout structure and the risk of refinancing. We have a strong position in the capital. We want to work with the capital structure over time. We have started on a well-planned path. We have a strong position to continue on
that path. Thank you very much. Thank you, Patrick.
The next question comes from Marcus Sandgren from Kepler Chevrolet.
Thank you. Good morning. I was just wondering about the money that is on Avanza. I have the impression that many people have money because it is easy to exchange between stocks and savings. It depends on the price. If you had any feeling for how much of the money you could take home, what would you appreciate?
How much of the Avanza volumes can we take over directly to our own platform?
The question is also how we can take over with regard to the -of-way from EFI. The platform is not as attractive as it has been with regard to NSF. It is one thing that must be considered.
Yes, exactly. This is a process that will take time. It is good that it will take time. It also depends on how many volumes we want. It also depends on what we have for growth rate via other sources and channels. It will be a constructive discussion between us and Avanza about how to handle these customers and what goals are on our side.
I was thinking about the risk of a down side. How do the discussions with the debt side go? Does this make it spread a lot? Is it largely the same as before? How are the discussions going?
It is probably a bit early to say that considering that the press release went out on Friday and that we have a running dialogue with the debt investors. We have been in a silent period with what we have seen so far. When we see what has happened on screen prices and others, there is no greater drama.
How is the spread going? I have not looked at your finances.
I wish I could answer
that.
I wish I could answer that. We have
previously implemented seniority on a spread over Stibor on just over 200 points.
Thank you. Thank
you. Thank you Peter for taking your time. We wish you a nice day.