Norion Bank AB

Welcome to Norion Bank's Q4 report for 2024. My name is Martin Ossman and I am the CEO, with me I have Peter Olsson, our CEO. So let's start directly with page 2, which is a summary of the fourth quarter. We look as usual up to the left, now we see that we have a loan book, a credit stock that has risen to 50.3 billion. Good increase, we increase by 11% throughout the year. We increase by 1.8 billion between Q3 and Q4. As a very good quarter, last year we saw Q3 and Q4 increase by 1.4, but we are increasing even more this quarter, so very good growth. Income, quite unchanged, 922 million kronor. As you can see, the KOE number is increasing, almost 33%. Peter will get into details, but we have some one-time effects this quarter, which is, among other things, related to Wall-E, which has had a very good growth. The same goes for Factoring, which has also had an increase more than usual, so it is related to the costs with those parts. Sen har vi haft en del kostnader relaterat till organisatoriska förändringar och lite systembyte. Så att rensar vi för det så har vi ett KE-tal på runt 30. Men som sagt Peter kom in på ännu mer detaljer kring det. Rådets resultatet uppgav till 383 miljoner kronor. Avkastning på eget kapital 30,5% och det vet ni alla att vi ackumulerar. our profit-added capital, and we have had a profit of about 1.25 billion over the year, so that means a decrease in the cost per capita, but it goes up to 13.5%. Let's take a look at the capital relationship, very good levels. The core capital relationship decreases by 30 points and the total capital relationship increases by 20 points to 16.9. A few other things that have happened during this period, we have köpt eller vi kommer att göra den här affären klar under den andra kvartalet. Det är då DNBs svenska kritkortsverksamhet som vi kommer att ta över i början av andra kvartalet. Väldigt glädjande. Nu kan vi gasa även kortaffären. Vi kommer att prata om det lite mer framåt. Vi har också som intention att under året köpa tillbaka aktier för upp till 500 miljoner kronor. Även det pratar vi lite längre fram. Då har vi en summering. Vi låter oss gå vidare och titta lite på olika affärsområdena. Så vi börjar på sidan tre och tittar lite på företagsdelen. Väldigt bra volymtillväxt. Växer de med 850 miljoner mellan Q3 och Q4. Främst drivet av Factoring och vårt Norge. Vi har sagt det tidigare att segmentet små och medelstora företag, framför allt medelstora, det är där vi vill positionera oss i Norden. Vi levererar finansiärslösningar till medelstora företag. 30-300 miljoner är ungefär där vi vill fokusera på och vi befäster den situationen. this quarter as well, so very good growth. Also a lot of activity, there is a great interest in doing shares, certainly with the interest rate to do that, they have planned where the interest rate is going. This has made it a very good activity this quarter. What else can we say about that? No, no margin press, we continue to be able to take the margin we Vi har kunnat göra tidigare. Vi tycker kvaliteten på motparterna fortsätter att vara väldigt, väldigt god. Lite längre duration har vi i stocken. Vi går då, om man tittar, samma polförhållande från 14 till 18 månader i duration, vilket också är väldigt glädjande. Så ett superbra kvartal för vår företagsdel. Vi går till sidan fyra och så tittar vi på fastigheter också här. En helt annan riskvilja och ett annat intresse av att göra affärer inom fastigheter. Vi växer här med 600 miljoner mellan kvartalen. Stocken växer med 8% och återigen mycket aktivitet, väldigt mycket kunddialoger. Utöver det så är det ingenting mer att orda, det är inga större förändringar mellan yoga 4 eller olika branscher där vi är aktiva. Så vi kan gå till sidan 5 och prata lite mer fastigheter. We start here, the share of senior loans continues to improve. The share of senior loans in the portfolio is now 63% and a year ago it was 58%, very good. The same goes for junior loans, we have 37% and Q423 was 42%. The average LTV senior loans have no major changes. Värdeutveckling, som vi brukar prata om på vår fastighetsportfölj. Ganska oförändrade värdeförändringar det här kvartalet, precis som föregående kvartal. Det var egentligen i första halvan 2024 där vi såg ett lägre prispress på fastigheterna, men det har avtagit ganska rejält det här sista halvåret, vilket är väldigt glädjande. And again, it's a completely different interest and will to do business compared to the first half of the year. Factum quorstor, we have too large volumes in step 2 and step 3. However, the rate of growth has decreased, which is good in itself. I also think it was good plans to volume this year. There is, as I said, another interest in doing business. We have good dialogues with customers who have challenges and we have good plans to be able to reduce the volumes here during this year. We move on to page 6 and talk a little The consumer part, and then we start with private loans. Again, we have worked with this part a lot in recent years. It's really nothing new to worry about, except that it goes at the pace we want. A creative stock production, which is again still the joy, which has been the joy for the entire 24. Very many flow-based channels. We are, for some months, up to 55% flow-based channel. The whole year we ended up at 45%. And why is that good? Partly because of the lower purchase cost. It will also mean lower credit losses over time and the customers are still a little longer in stock. So this is a very good quarter for private again. Another good quarter. The competitive situation continues to be good for us. We managed to maintain a good margin with a clear lower risk, so the risk-risk reduction is getting better and better. So again, a good quarter for our private sector. We look a little at what we talk about on the first page, page 7, and we talk a little about the acquisition. It is a Swedish credit card business. This business will start to roll from the second quarter. This is closed as it looks now at the beginning of the second quarter. There will be a positive result immediately. We go overnight from about 25,000 cards to 100,000 cards. Cards have been On our agenda for a while, we have wanted to grow the card business. On the other hand, we have chosen to focus on the parts of companies and properties, oil and private loans, because that is where we have had the biggest improvements in the withdrawal. Now we have done that, and now we are taking a big turn in our card business. Vi kom upp direkt i 100 000 kort, vi får en väldigt bra plattform och ett bra system för att kunna fortsätta växande här fram. Så det här är ett klart steg framåt. Vi går till sidan åtta och avslutar med Payments, vår Wall-E-lösning, eller Wall-E, vår Payments-lösning. What can we say about that? Well, the trade market has recovered a little during 2024. If we look at the volume of transactions in the north, they are up about 10-12%. We outperform that a lot. We have clearly higher growth in volume of transactions than the entire market. So here we have a very, very good momentum. We have volume of transactions at nästan 5,5 miljard i Q4, all time high. Låneboken växer cirka 300 miljoner, vad de är för med Q3 förra året och det här året. Vi har nu 5,5 miljon aktiva kunder så det här är en produkt som har bidragit till vår bankens total lönsamhet. Jag tror de kommer bidra ännu mer framåt. Vi ser väldigt stor potential i Wall-E. Vi har gjort en del satsningar i organisation under Q4 och vi kommer så att göra början av det här året och resten av 2025. Så Wall-E är ett väldigt bra kvartal. Vi går vidare till sidan nio. talk a little more details and numbers and then hand over to Peter.

Thank you. As usual, we will start by looking at the revenues. They go up to 922 million under the fourth quarter. We think we maintain a good level, especially given where we are in the interest rate cycle and the continued effects we have from the volumes we have in step 3. Räntenettot är som vanligt den stora drivaren av vår intäktsmassa. Vi har även ett bra provisionsnetto, men i övrigt är det små intäktsströmmar. Nimmen är oförändrad jämfört med Q3. Den uppgår till 6,7 procent. Även om den då är ner en del under det senaste året, så är det också mycket drivet av vart vi befinner oss i räntesykeln. Vi kommer komma tillbaka till det lite senare här. We move on to page 10. We talk about the effect from the step 3 volumes and our careful way of handling the revenue statement. As you know, we do not receive revenue from those loans unless we see concrete evidence of payments. So the reported NIMS goes up to 6.7%. And in this quarter, there are small changes. We have about 100 points of effect from this precautionary principle. So if we had put it back, the NIMS would have gone up to 7.7%. But as I said, there are actually no step changes at all during this quarter. And the effect is largely unchanged with both Q2 and Q3. We move on to page 11. We go back to where we are in the interest rate cycle. As we have pointed out several times here, we took advantage of it temporarily when the interest rate line pointed upwards. Now it points downwards and we can see on the green line that Gilden, our total prices against the customers come down completely according to expectations. Remember that about 70% of our stock is in some form Ibor-connected so that these changes do not happen automatically. Then we have also talked for a while back here now that we see that our funding costs are coming down, they are on the way down, we see concretely that they do that during this quarter just as we have somewhere expected us and on the whole, the NIM is then completely unchanged compared to where we were in Q3. If we look forward, we can see that the Ibor rates are still a bit on a downward trend, so we can't rule out that we can have a under the first half of the year, what we see right now, but that the biggest pressure is still behind us. Then we'll see, it also depends on what happens on the market, not least on the loan side, where Nimmun as a whole takes the lead, but everything else is the same. then we should probably not put an end to a small pressure to then hopefully be able to bounce back a bit there as well. We move on to page 12. If we still talk about interest, we talk about funding, liquidity, then we can conclude that we are strengthening our regulatory liquidity measures significantly here during the fourth quarter. The LCR is rising to 320%. And this is according to FI's new legal decision-making. And with that method, the LCR went up in Q3 to 204%, so a huge step up in this regard. Same thing with the SFR. We strengthen it from 103 to 112% according to the new method. We have been very active on the funding market during Q4. It has gone better. This has gone a little faster than we had dared to hope for when we sat here in connection with last quarter's reports, but we have taken advantage of the good opportunities that have been in the market. In total, we have taken in about 5 billion in extra surplus liquidity only during the fourth quarter. So if we move on to page 13 and see this a little more technical, if we take our total financing side in relation to the loan stock, it has historically been quite constant around 1.0 times and you can see here in Q4 how we structurally increase the liquidity level in the bank and here it is about 5 billion in in extra surplus liquidity, as I mentioned earlier today. And back to the NIMR-resonance, it is flat at 6.7% during the quarter. This is despite the extra surplus liquidity we have taken in. We have a weak negative carry on the extra liquidity we have taken in, but as a whole, we see no major impact on the NIMR during this quarter. And when we talk about liquidity, we should also make sure to comment on the Avanza situation. Many of you have probably noticed that they shut down their loan platform, the product called SparKonto Plus, where we are one of several actors. We have had a very long and good collaboration with Avanza. i konstruktiva diskussioner på hur vi ska hantera den här situationen. Det kan också stå att vi förstår deras beslut givet det rättsliga ställningstagandet som FI kommer här under hösten. As I said, we have good discussions with Avanza. They have also communicated to the market that this will take time and that the dismantling will take place in subordinated forms. And they have also confirmed that to us. So we feel great security in that situation. Det är lite för tidigt att säga exakt hur den här transaktionen kommer att gå till. Men man kan ju säga det att Avanza-plattformen har ju blivit mindre värd för oss efter FI's rättsliga ställningstagande. Vi har jobbat på med att ytterligare diversifiera vår funding. Det har vi gjort under en längre tid tillbaka. Vi accelererade de ansträngningarna här i höstas i samband med beskedet från FI. And now when Avanza puts down its platform, it doesn't really cause any changes from our side, but we continue on the same path. Page 14. If we go in and take a look at the different segments, we start with the company segment. Martin was in on this earlier, a very good momentum. The stock is up almost 850 million here under Q4. It is an increase during the quarter by 8%. As of last year, the stock has increased by 19%. Income during the corresponding period is up by 21%. Again, it is a PIG financing market, which benefits us. The NIM is completely unchanged compared to the previous quarter and rises to 7.3%. On page 15, the volume segment, a slightly calmer quarter even if we increase here as well, the volumes are up with almost 600 million, the NIM is flat, goes up to 4.7% and again here you can see the den stora effekten som vi har från det jag pratade om tidigare med cash accounting och hur vi av försiktighetsskäl och inte intäkts för steg 3-volymerna så att sett under det senaste året så är nimmen ner men stabil och oförändrad jämfört med de tidigare två kvartalen. Sidan 16 The private sector, just like Martin said, we are doing very well. We have a good increase rate that we want to keep. We are increasing with about 150 million volume here under Q4. When it comes to the NIM, it goes up to 6.7%. We should remember that it is largely unchanged compared to where we were in Q3. We talked about that we had a positive one-off effect of about 15 million in Q3. If we had cleaned it up, we would see a stable development on the NIM here as well. Over time, we have seen a weak decreasing NIM. It is of course partly driven by the interest rate cycle and the technical effects I talked about earlier, but also that over time we have moved towards a little better customers, better credit quality, some lower prices, but we expect to get this back over time through lower risk and lower loss of credit. Since 2017, payments, Wally, very good momentum, as Martin talked about. The transaction volumes are over 5.4 billion and we also see that the stock increases to just over 3 billion, an increase of 10%. here isolated during the fourth quarter and up with about the same volume if we look at the last year. Q4 is seasonally strong for Wally. We have both Black Week and we have Christmas trade that drives up the volume of transactions and drives up the stock. Income is well on a good level. You should also remember that there is a time lag in the business model when it comes to Wally that Under Q4 we have built volume and the revenue side will come with a small time delay in this. So as a whole, a very, very strong quarter for Volley. We move on to page 18 and look at the costs. It goes up to 303 million under Q4. Martin was mentioning at the beginning that there are some specific things that drive the cost mass upwards just during this quarter. To begin with, we have implemented some organizational changes. We have also made a larger system change when it comes to our factoring product. And the two effects together sum up to so-called input costs of about 15 million under Q4. We have also, given the strong business volumes we have seen, both on Wall-E but also on the factoring side here under Q4, a lot of seasonally driven costs On the payment side, with the strong volume of transactions, it causes an extraordinary amount of costs for, for example, credit statements, e-signing and other transaction related costs. And on the factoring side, it is partly transaction related, but also related to the fact that we We do not take credit risk outside of our core markets. And during this quarter, the flows have come from some other geographies where we have increased costs for credit insurances in order to minimize those exposures. In total, we estimate that these seasonal effects will go up to about 10 million. So if we put these input costs and seasonal effects together, they go up to about 25 million. If we had adjusted that, the cost would have been just under 280 million kronor, and the K-I ratio would have been about 30 percent adjusted for this. Page 19, our credit loss reserves. They go up to 237 million kronor here during the fourth quarter, corresponding to 1.9 percent. We continue to see a good trend, we see better and better credit quality in our portfolios and even if the loss percentage decreases, we continue to strengthen our reserve rates both on the company side and on the private side and we usually talk specifically about Reservations of stage 3 private, they increase isolated here under Q4 with about 70 points and now goes up to 55.8%. Side 20, summing it up, we have a turnover result that has risen to 383 million. We have a return on our own capital of 13.5% and Martin also mentioned that we have accumulated approximately 1.25 billion in our own capital during 2024. I think the result is good, and above all driven by the way we handle the 3 volumes and where we are in the interest rate cycle. So it's a stable and good result where we are. Page 21, a little bit about the capital position. We have a core primary capital relationship that goes up to 15.8%. It is down about 30 points compared to Q3 and it is explained partly by the strong flows we have here under Q4. We increase the stock by about 1.8 billion and we have an annual recalculation effect of our operational risks. The two together makes us reduce the nuclear-primary relationship somewhat. At the same time, we see that the total capital coverage increases from 16.7 to 16.9%. And the explanation for this is that under Q4 we have emitted another 300 million in T2 capital. So there we have a total of 600 million out there during the year shift. So we are standing strong. and have good buffers in relation to our regulatory requirements. So if we go on to page 22, and then we look at it in more detail, as I said, 16.9% total capital coverage ratio, that gives us a total capital buffer of 376 points, and that is on the total level that we have as the lowest buffer. We will set this in relation to our financial goal of always maintaining buffer levels between 200 and 400 points. So we are in the upper part of this interval. Then we also have a financial goal, a division policy that says that we will shift back any surplus capital to the shareholders. We will hopefully be able to do this during 2025. We intend to start buying back shares during 2025 for up to SEK 500 million. This will happen gradually during the year, but if we had counted away SEK 500 million from the capital coverage during the year shift, it would have had an impact of about 90 points. Vi förväntar oss att de här aktieåterköpen ska kunna påbörjas någon gång under det andra kvartalet och anledningen till att vi pratar Q2 det är att det finns två villkor för att det här ska kunna börja och för det första så måste årsstämman förnya det bemyndigandet vi har gällande aktieåterköp och vi inväntar också tillstånd från Finansinspektionen för att kunna påbörja det här. Then we go to page 23, and then I'll pass it back to Martin again.

Thank you, Peter. Before we sum up the quarter and look forward, you probably saw all the press releases that we sent out on Friday, where FI decided to proceed with an ongoing penicillin test. FI has sent a request for comment and we will give our view on FI's preliminaries as of late February 21st. As the press release states, FI's investigation period is 30.04.2022 until the beginning of 2023. In recent years, we have put in an incredible amount of work with processes and routines to counter pen washing. It is a very extensive work. I think you will never be done with this work without constantly improving and optimizing processes and regulations. utökas också hela tiden så att det gäller att vara med i utvecklingen men vi kan säga som så att vi anser att de feedbacken vi fick av FI gällande den perioden undersökning handlade om där har vi haft en åtgärdsplan och åtgärdat den absoluta majoriteten av de brister FI påpekade. Det var det om pressmedlem, om vi summerar lite If we look at the quarter and look a little forward, we can go through the different business areas. If we start to look at private, private continues to go well. We have said that we are in a good competitive situation. We managed to have very good risk-adjusted withdrawals. We have a little lower Marginal mot kunn, med klapighet för kreditkvalitet. Väldigt mycket flöde i egna kanaler, vilket har varit målet länge. Privat går väldigt bra. Fortsätter att ticka på bra. Vi kommer även att gå in i Finland med privatlån. Vi börjar att titta lite Finland. Vi har varit där tidigare. Vi kommer att gå in i Finland nu under första kvartalet. Card also very exciting that we can now gas cards, we go from 24,000 cards to 100,000 cards with start in Q2. We get a system, a platform that makes the whole card business can take off. And we have looked at that for a while, it is very cool that we get started with the card business. Companies, very good activity, a lot of customer dialogue. Hög tillväxttakt under året och Q4. Vi ska inte förvänta oss den tillväxttakten under Q1. Vi ser en del amorteringar som kommer att komma in här i början av Q1. Det är vi verkligen glada för. Tittar vi på fastigheter? Nej, fastigheter. Våra utmaningar där är fortfarande detsamma. Det vill säga att vi har volymer i steg 2 och 3. We see, due to the interest rate situation, a completely different activity and interest in doing business, so we have very good hopes that the customers who have had challenges in the last 6-9 months with their rent payments can come up with alternatives to find other solutions, so that we therefore reduce volumes in step 3 during this year. When in time is difficult to say, but I look positively at being able to reduce these during the first half of the year. And then we take Wall-E. An incredibly good momentum in Wall-E. We have put resources, we have organized ourselves and recruited people within the customer base and responsibility within Wall-E, which has given a very good result. We need to become a little more visible in Wall-E, which we are working on, to have the market position that we deserve. So Wally has had a good quarter and we look forward to Wally growing further here and will invest in that product in the coming time. So we are very pleased with Wally and look forward to further improved development. Then we can say that we have Peter on the capital situation, very good balance sheet, a good capital relationship. And therefore, we intend to buy back shares of up to 500 million kronor during the year. That's all Peter and I had, so we thank you for taking the time to listen and open up for questions. Thank you.

Under frågestunden kan deltagarna ställa frågor genom att trycka fyrkant 5 på sin telefon. Om du vill dra tillbaka din fråga, vänligen tryck fyrkant 6. Den nästa frågan kommer från Jakob Hässlevik från SCB. Varsågod.

Good morning. I can start with a clarifying question. In your statement, you wrote that the income through your own channels has increased and that your own channel has risen to 45%. Is it your own channel that has risen to 45% on income or was it on the withdrawal?

The outloan is up to 45% on the whole year and the individual quarter to 55%. So it's the outloan in private channels. Okay, but you also wrote that the inloan through your own channels would have increased in the quarter, right?

No, I don't think so.

Det har det säkert gjort i sig men den 45 procenten här rör i alla fall till utlåning och privatlån.

Men hur mycket har ni via egen kanal på inlåning? För NSFR ökade ju ganska rejält i kvartalet.

We have never given the split on how our financing side of the loan behaves between our own channels and different platforms. And one reason for that is that it becomes a competitively bad dynamic against the competitors we have on the different platforms. Som jag sa lite grann inledningsvis, vi har ju jobbat på under en längre tid för att diversifiera hela finansieringen och ett led i det är ju att vi har ökat på inlåningen i egen kanal. Den har ökat under det senaste året här också.

Ja, för jag gissar att vi skulle väl tänka oss att det kommer fortsätta öka under året när ni får fas över egen inlåning från Avanza's platform, and that should actually give a little extra cost, because you seem to pay around 55 points in interest on your own platform compared to Avanza in the current situation. I just thought if 55 points is reasonable that the extra cost ends per crown that is moved from Avanza to your channel. Eller tror ni att när även resurser och nobar och borg och etc. behöver också fasas över till egen kanal, att det kan bli uppåtgående press?

I think it's a bit early to say exactly how that dynamic will take place. It also depends on which channels we replace the volumes with. A few comments on that is that the comparison you make is only the pure interest rate. We also pay fees to the various platforms and providers we work with, so it's not certain that the all-in cost changes that way. Then it also depends on how we replace those volumes. As I said during the presentation, if we take Avanza as an example, their volumes have become less valuable to us. when we move these volumes and depending on what types of sources and channels we are talking about, there can also be a scenario where we do not need the same volume via other channels, but that we can maintain the regulatory liquidity measures at the corresponding level anyway. And that will also have an impact on the cost picture in that case.

We have also worked for a long time to diversify and get flows in our own channels and other currencies. This is just to continue the journey we have been on. For example, we also go into racing in Ireland and Finland, and maybe even borrow a different brand than just a collector. So this is actually just part of the journey we have been on. And as I said, Avanza's platform is less valuable to us and to everyone, with regard to FI's restructuring.

Thank you for clarifying. One last question on funding. You said that you brought in 5 million in extra surplus liquidity in the quarter. Is it because you need more funding for DNB's credit card portfolio? Or are you going to issue wholesale to fund it?

To start with, that portfolio is relatively limited in size. We expect that the volumes there are about 700 million. So this extra surplus liquidity we have taken in, it should be seen as a conscious, active work in structurally increasing the NSFR level from the 103 that we preformed, reported in connection with Q3, to the 112 that we report this in connection with the change of year. And as we said, we also do not see that the underlying liquidity risk in the bank has risen due to FI's legal stance. On the other hand, we want to work with larger buffer levels in relation to the regulatory measure. So that is a pure consequence of the journey we have made here.

Yes, thank you. And one last question before I leave. NIM was very stable in all segments, except for the consumer portfolio, which fell a little in the quarter, even down a little year over year. Were there large volumes that came in at the end of the quarter? Is it a timing effect or do you see a price pressure in the market right now?

We see no underlying price pressure in the market. As I said in the presentation, we also had a positive one-off effect in Q3 at about 15 million. If you had adjusted it, the NIM is relatively unchanged here under Q4. However, over a slightly longer period of time, we have seen a slightly declining NIM and this is partly explained by the rate cycle dynamics and the overall effect that it has, but also that we have gradually moved towards a slightly better credit quality with slightly lower price increases. But this is not to compare with the fact that there is price pressure in the market, but we expect to get back to this over time through lower credit losses.

And the short answer to the question is that we see no, we still see a very good contrast situation in private loans.

Toppen. Tack så mycket.

Tack.

Den nästa frågan kommer från Emil Jonsson från DNB. Varsågod.

Tack så mycket. God morgon. God morgon. Jag tänkte börja fråga på fundingen. Deposits var ju upp... We have tried to be active in all areas regarding the loan.

We have increased our own channel, we have also increased with different types of platforms, but it is mainly platforms outside of Sweden, where there is a different customer dynamic. It is much more about a little longer period of time on the loan, which means that we can get better effects on regulatory liquidity. Okay.

Could you also say something about how much of the loan in FEC is tied for at least 12 months? Is it more or less than in Stocken som helhet? What do you mean by Stocken som helhet in that context? We have had a split earlier on binding time on the entire stick, but how can we look at the part of the stick that is dry?

The dry stick has more overnight inserts than what the stick as a whole has and that is One of the reasons for the Avanza platform that we have talked about earlier is that the customer clientele has a tendency to request very short periods of time on the loan, which is positive for us in the situation we are in when we are going to phase out the volumes.

Okay, thanks for that clarification. And when it comes to the dialogues that you've had with Avanza, do you think that you will have more or less than one year to exchange that funding to other funding chains?

Det är exakt tidsplan i det. Det är under utarbetande och det är väl för tidigt att säga men jag skulle gissa på att vi kommer ha något längre tid på oss.

En fråga på kostnader. Om man ska tänka på rörliga delar inför nästa kvartal. I assume it's probably a little underlying cost inflation. We have these 15 million that are likely to disappear, and I think that the other 10 million that you mentioned are likely to move in some way with volumes in factoring and payments. Is there anything else that I'm missing, or is there another important driver to keep an eye on in order not to end up in the net?

Nej, du hamnade ganska rätt där när du exploderade de 25 du pratade om. En fråga på återköpen.

Har ni börjat dialog med FI om det? Finns det någon risk att de har Maybe there will be changes due to the fact that the AML investigation may still be ongoing when the resumption begins.

It is a fairly standard application that will be submitted from our side to the Financial Inspectorate. That is why we say that we cannot start immediately. We expect to be able to start this in the second quarter. If they will have views on it, I have no idea. Det förväntar vi oss inte.

Vi har svårt att säga något med tanke på kapitalsituationen vi har, att vi skulle få någonting annat än att krepa på ansökan. Men det är inte klart om det är klart.

All right. En sista fråga bara. Det här om AML-utredningen. Ni sa att åtminstone stora merparten av det som FI har When did you start the action? We started the action, we had an action plan before the investigation period.

We have worked with this for many years. Then we followed the action plan to the end and we have kept exactly the timeline we set up. So we have worked with this for a long time and will continue to work with it. The next question comes from Patrik Brattelius from ABG.

Thank you, thank you.

Can you hear me? Yes, I can.

Super, super. Yes, a question about costs. We got this adjusted cost base, but a little summary of how we are going to think about the coming year and what will drive the costs in the form of cost inflation and higher wage costs. Is it around the mid-single digit that is a running assumption, or is there something that, because you talked a bit about Wall-E here at Colet, that you should keep in mind that maybe the costs will be a little higher in 2025, how should we think?

Yes, but the inflation has dropped a bit, but there is still a certain inflation rate, as you say. Of course, there are salary increases, not any bigger dramatics there. We are making some investments in Wall-E, and really especially from the second quarter, I would say. But it will probably not be... Is there any drama in the costs? I'm looking at Peter here, do you have anything to add?

No, I agree and a big factor to what has driven the cost increase here during 2024 has also been, as we said earlier, that we have put a lot of money on Not just ANL questions, but different types of regulation. It could be ANL, it could be DORA, it could be GDPR, it could be Basel IV, and many others that require IT investments and support. They are in no way over, but do not really see the same increase in that in 2025 as we have seen in 2024, so that can also call it to pair it a little and it is in that case exciting that we can switch over the investments we make to more business-driven investments in the future.

There you got Petter's answer Patrik.

Super good, great, thank you. And in advance then regarding this financial goal with what was previously called Should we expect that it is resale that is the primary way to return capital to the shareholders?

If you look at how our division policy is formulated, it connects to our financial goal of capital protection and that in that regard there is a potential surplus, then we will shift it back to our shareholders. This time we choose to shift it back through repurchase and that is the path that the owners of the studio have chosen this time. Then we'll see what happens in the future.

Is there a thought that as long as you are under book value, you see more value in repurchase, and then you are above book value, then maybe distribution is preferred? Or is there any guidance that you can follow?

I don't think you should see the repurchase program as a speculation in the valuation of the share, but it is a method choice to shift money back to the shareholder.

Yes, thank you. Something that we haven't talked so much about is that if you look at your net income, both in percentage growth but also in absolute growth, then the segment that grows the most is other. It is up 100 million in 2024, despite the fact that the loan book is down 100 million. How should you expect this segment will develop in the future? And can we go through some of the drivers here that have caused such strong net income growth in this segment?

Yes, we can do that. No, but it is here that the big Treasury effects arise due to the fact that we have gradually also moved But in a interest rate cycle that is not at zero or minus, but we have had both positive interest rates and moving interest rates. And now we have also been in a situation where we have structurally changed the entire liquidity level in the bank. And the big effects on this side land on the overhead side.

But we had a higher interest rate in 2023, I think, than in 2024. But it looks like in the ongoing, in the falling interest rate environment we have a higher interest rate net. Should you expect a lower interest rate, a lower liquidity portfolio, a lower net interest rate in the future? Or are there some things that I missed in my reasoning?

To start with, there is no linear reasoning with what Räntenettot is and where Iboräntorna is. It's just these timing effects that I've been talking about. And how our funding costs relative to where we can place the liquidity we have. To start with, there are no linear effects. But over time, one should expect that with a lower interest rate environment, Räntenettot will go down.

Yes, thank you. And my last question is regarding the negative impact on NIMH from step 3. I think we have been talking about this earlier this quarter, but if you look at the crystal ball, have you had any better feelings about when you can expect that this will be a reversal of this effect on NIMH? Är det någonting som kanske är redan i H1 eller är det här en längre puck och ingenting man bör förvänta sig de kommande kvartalen?

Jag hade hoppats när vi stod här i Q2 när volymerna bög upp att vi skulle ha lösningar på vissa saker under Q4. Det har skjutits lite på till den här sidan årsskiftet. Jag tror vi kommer att se förbättringar under första halvåret. Jag vågar inte spekulera om det blir Q1 or Q2, but in the first half of the year, we think, based on the information we have today, that we will see improvements. Thank you, and follow-up then.

We are on one percentage unit according to slide 10. When you talk about improvements, What do you see as a remarkable improvement in your world so that you get a sense of potential effect?

If we have about 4 billion in step 3 now, then I'm talking about essential improvements, that is to say 4 billion or less. I don't really want to say exactly what it will be, but it's better to be able to deliver on it than to guess. Therefore, I think it will be With the information we have today, we see that there will be improvements during the first half, that is to say that the volume of the four will decrease and thus also increase. Then I don't really want to quantify it, but it will come when it comes. But we think it's a different situation. Att hitta motparten av engagemanget. Det finns en annan riskvilja att göra affärer. Det finns intresse och det finns också kunder som kommer ikapp lite bättre nu. Naturligtvis med hjälp av ett lägre ränteläge. Det är så jag kan säga. Men jag vill inte kvantifiera. Det är bättre att vi tar det där och då.

Tack. Jag klämmer in en sista fråga gällande kapitaliseringen. It has been a very active fixed income market and you write that you see that you have more room to emit more hybrid capital. But how can it be said that you have not been more active during the second half of 2024 when the market has been so hot and try to do even more and in that way create and possibly better space to be able to transfer even more capital to the shareholders?

Yes, but to begin with, we have been active. We issued 300 million late in Q2 and here under Q4, another 300 million. Then you can always discuss the pace of that. But there is also an indication that to spread out emissions, to spread out future fallout structures, and those are the financing risks that come with that, and that we basically have a strong capital position. Then over time, we want to work further to make the capital structure we have more effective, but we think we have started on the right track, and we have the prospect of continuing to do so.

Okay, thank you very much. Thank you, Patrik.

The next question comes from Marcus Sandgren from Kepler Sjövrö. Please go ahead.

Thank you, good morning. I was just thinking about the money that is now available on Avanza. I have the impression that many people have money there because it is easy to switch between stocks and savings. It depends on the pricing, but if you had any feeling for how much of the money you can take home, what would you appreciate then?

You mean how much of the Avanza volumes we can take over directly to our own platform?

The question is also how much we want to take over, given that we have a law enforcement officer from FI. The platform is not as attractive as it has been with regard to NSFR. That's one thing you have to pay attention to.

Yes, exactly. And this is a process that will take time. It's good that it will take time. And it also depends, as Martin says, on how much volume we want. It also depends on what we have for increase in pace via other sources and other channels. And there will be a constructive discussion between us and Avanza about how to handle these the customers and the requirements that exist both from our side and from their side.

Okay. And then I wondered a little about, if you think about it, debt investors tend to be more focused on downside risks than stock investors. How, now that it has been this with FI position taking and then this AML investigation, how are the discussions with the debt side going? Does it feel like this is spreading a lot or is it the same as before, or how are the discussions going?

It's probably a bit early to say that, given that this press release went out on Friday and that we of course have a ongoing dialogue with debt investors and we have been in a quiet period with what we have seen so far and when we look at what has happened on screen prices and other things, there is no greater drama.

Jättebra. Hur ligger ni spreadmässigt? Jag har faktiskt inte kollat på det ni finansierar.

Du önskar att jag skulle kunna svara på det. Du önskar att jag skulle kunna svara på det, men det kan jag vara helt ärlig och säga.

Vi har tidigare emitterat seniort på en spread över Stibor på strax över 200 punkter.

Okej, jättebra. Tack, det var allt.

Tackar, tackar.

Som en påminnelse om du vill ställa en fråga tryck fyrkant 5 på din telefon. Det finns inga fler frågor just nu. Så jag lämnar över ordet till talarna för eventuella avslutande kommentarer.

Då tackar jag Peter för att ni tog er tid och så önskar vi er en fin dag. Ha det bra!