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Norion Bank AB
2/5/2026
Hello and welcome to Noran Bank's Q4 report 2025. My name is Martin Årsmann and I am the CEO and the CEO is Peter Olsson. Let's start on page 2 and as usual a summary of the Q4 this time. Låneboken landar på 49,7 miljarder ungefär. Vi ökar mellan Q3 och Q4 med 600 miljoner. Vi har en hel del FX-effekter som vi kommer prata om lite framåt, men om man tittar på FX-effekter mellan Q3 och Q4 så uppgår den till 600 million. In addition, we have also made an MPL sale that we communicated earlier at 150 million, so we have a underlying growth between Q3 and Q4 in Roughly 1.2 billion, so about the same growth rate as we had in Q4 2024. The QE number landed at 34.6%, which is a small increase if you compare with Q4 2024. And as you know, Q4 is a quarter with some seasonal effects. Peter will talk a little more about that. We have also, during this quarter and this year, strengthened and invested quite a lot in our payment solution Wall-E, which has a very good momentum. We have continued to strengthen our organization on regulatory issues and it is also playing a role in IT development. We have made some investments in recent years. Now we see that Stora investeringstakten är egentligen bakom oss, men nu har vi en stabilitet i banken, vi har den uppsättning med personer vi vill ha och vi har stärkt organisationen på olika sätt, både kundansvar och regelverksfunktioner. So I think here we have a good platform to continue to grow the bank. And I think we can continue to grow without any major cost increases. So I see very good scale averages from here. Rosengardens stat landar på 407 miljoner, även det har en viss valutaeffekt på cirka 10-12 miljoner. So the ROC status increases by 9% if we adjust for currency effects and 7% with the currency. The EPS increases by 9%, even though it of course is affected by FX, it increases by 11% if we don't look at the currency effects, so a good EPS development. The drop in GDP falls to 13%. We will also talk about that. We have a large surplus capital. Peter will talk about the drop in GDP and its development if we take a look at our capital situation. The total capital relationship is very strong. We have a total capital relationship of 18.4%. We increased by 1.5% compared to the previous year, so a very strong capital level. We also intend to continue our resale program. We will talk more about that later. Finally, as you can see, we have put a bid on consensus asset management during November. We will also talk a little more about the rationale behind it and how we see it moving forward. But if we look at page 3, we go through the effects we have had on the credit stock under 2025. If you look at the picture to the right, you see that the FX-effects under the whole year, compared to Q4 2025 and Q4 2024, We have had FX-effects of 1.2 billion SEK. You will remember that it is a revenue-technical effect also under Q1 2025. And then, as I said, our sale of MPLs, which we are very pleased with, that we have made these three effects up to 1.9 billion SEK. So we have quite big effects on, above all, the currency that we need to take into account when we look at the stock and its development. Vi går vidare och så i vanlig ordning tittar vi lite i uppdatering kring de olika segmenten. Vi börjar med företagssegmentet. Väldig bra aktivitet rent generellt. Amorteringar har vi haft på nästan 2 miljarder under kvartalet. Vi har haft nya affärer för på About two and a half, so as I said, a lot of business transactions. Still good competitive situation, we do not see a greater margin pressure. Actually in the north in general Finland is the one that is really good right now in terms of competitive situation. If we look at the fourth quarter, it is clearly a better sentiment. There is more interest, more dialogues compared to Q2 and Q3. Then it takes a little longer, as we have seen the same trend earlier. Det tar lite längre tid innan affärerna genomförs, lite längre betänketid hos kunderna. Det känns som att storbankerna börjar få lite fart på large corp och vi tror att det här kommer spilla över på middkorps över tid. Så vi tror att vi har en bra situation nu 2026 och framåt kring aktivitet inom det här segmentet. If we look at the stock development, we increased it by 600 million. We also have the currency effect of 150 million between Q2 and Q4, so we have had a underlying growth of 750 million. This is mainly Sweden and the movement that is growing in this quarter. The stock is increasing by 5% while the revenue is increasing by 13%, so it's a good development. Och som sagt lite 2026, det är många kunddelar och bra aktivitet det vi sett så här långt in i det här året och det gäller egentligen alla geografier och både rörelserivet och factoring. Vi går till sidan fem och så tittar vi på fastigheter. Here we see a stock decrease of SEK 500 million between Q3 and Q4. Also here we have a currency effect of SEK 250 million, which is a decrease of SEK 500 million driven by currency movements. So quite an unchanged stock. We have had a whole lot of amortization this quarter within the real estate sector. We have had amortization on at about 2.6 billion. We saw that there was a different competitive image during Q2 and Q3, especially from the major banks and the financial markets. We see that has eased a little in this quarter. That's what we said a little in Q3. We saw that Q4, a certain increase in competitiveness. So a little better competitive situation for us in this quarter. We have made a whole deal this quarter, with less ticket sizes, and we like that. just from a diversification perspective. We continue to strengthen our ordination, especially in Sweden, within the facilities. If we look a little forward, there is good activity, a lot of customer dialogues, what we have seen here at the beginning of this year. There is a lot of capital on the sidelines that is waiting to be put into action. I think it can be good activity under 26, when in time it is difficult to say exactly. We also see a lot of dialogue with new customers, good counterparts that we have not seen before. So there is a great interest in doing the facility fair, that's what we see right now. We also see a little longer running times at the shops. It suits us very well. We are working to extend the running times so that we get a little longer duration in stock. Besides that, there is not much to say about average business or running time. Quite uneven compared to the previous quarter. We continue a little on the topic of properties and their sex. Small changes, not so much between the quarters, but the senior division goes from 64 to 63 compared to Q3. The juniors from 36 to 37. The LTV on the senior division increases from 62 to 64 and the LTV on the juniors is helt ofrednad. Tittar vi lite på marknadsvärdet så börjar vi också orda relativt flatt marknadsvärde under det här kvartalet. Det har klart stabiliserat sig fastighetsmarknaden. Kassaflödet har framförallt varit genererad kontorsfärdighet som påverkas negativt, medan bostadssementet fortsätter att utvecklas starkt. Steg 2, steg p-volymerna. Vi minskar här med 250 miljoner mellan Q3 och Q4. Jag hade önskat och hoppats att vi skulle ha lite mer minskningar, men nu tycker jag att det går åt rätt håll. Vi ska inte heller glömma att vi har minskat volymerna mellan Q4 2024 och 2025 med 800-900 miljoner. Och i jämförelse med toppen i början av 2024 så har vi faktiskt minskat steg 2 och steg 3 med nästan 2 miljarder, exakt 1,8 miljarder. Så vi ser goda förutsättningar och förhoppningar att fortsätta minska volymerna i steg 2 och steg 3. We take page 7 and then we go in and look at private. Yes, but a very, very good quarter for private again, shall I say. We increase the stock with 350 million between Q3 and Q4 and then include it in the MPL sales that we have done during the quarter. Good competitive situation, it has been for a while and will continue this quarter. Comparing this quarter with the previous quarter, we increased the stock by 12% and the revenue increased by 25%, so it is a very good development. We continue to drive, as we have done for a long time, and we are focused on running flows in our own channels. And you all know that it gives a little better quality. We also see lower credit losses over time. We also see a better duration, a longer duration in our private sector. So that work continues and goes according to plans, maybe even a little better. In addition, there is not much word about average business, really. There have been very small changes since earlier. Vi kan också prata lite om hur våra kunder mår. Om man ser då 25, det är ju väldigt glädjande att vi ser klart färre kunder som får utmaningen att betala räntor och eller amortera sina lån. Vi har sett en klar förbättring kring hur våra kunder mår om man jämför med 2024. And this continues during this quarter, that is, it is actually a little better even. Customers feel better, there are clearly fewer who get reminders and it is the proportion that goes to the cash register and continues to decrease despite the fact that we are increasing our stock, so it is a very good payment pattern and the trend is very exciting. We move on to page 8 and talk about Wall-E. Here, fantastic quarter again. The volume of transactions during this quarter has increased to almost 6.5 billion. As you can see in the picture, we had about 5.4 billion the same period last year, so a lot of good development. If we look at the whole year 2025, we will grow by almost 20% and I would say that the market, the general market increases by about 3-4%. So we take ownership of the market share and we have very good positions and excellent momentum this year. Låneboken längst nere ökar med 20 %. Mellan Q4 2024 och Q4 2025 ökar med cirka 600 miljoner kronor, så den ökar nu till 3,6 miljarder. Vi har nu 6,5 miljon aktiva användare så det är ett väldigt bra momentum i Wall-E som vi har investerat både kring den tekniska utvecklingen och kundansvaret. Det har vi gjort och fortsätter också under det här kvartalet. Vi ser goda tillväxtpotential även framåt under det här året. With that, I thank you for me and hand over to Peter.
Peter, please. Thank you very much. We start by looking at the revenues. They are stable and go up to 928 million under the fourth quarter. It is an increase of 1% compared to the corresponding period last year. And this is during a period where, as Martin mentioned, the stock market is largely unchanged. So a very stable underlying development. We also see that if we look at the NIM, it goes up by 6.8%. Completely unchanged compared to what we saw in Q3 and up by 10 points compared to the corresponding period last year. And we are keeping up with this trend despite the fact that we are still applying this conservative way of handling the Stig 3-credits. So if we go to page 10 and look at that effect in more detail, it is also probably changed compared to Q3. It is then an effect of about 70 points. That is, if we had introduced stage 3 loans, especially in the property side, then it had an underlying income of 70 points higher, up to 87.4%. This level has decreased compared to what we saw at the end of 2024. This is due to the fact that we have reduced the Stig 3 balances somewhat. This is also partly affected by FX, but also that the income rates have dropped significantly. But this is an unchanged effect and a conservative way that we handled the education on them. Let's go to page 11, where we take a closer look at Nimmel in detail and how we have handled the so-called interest rate cycle. We start with the line that is further down, which is our funding costs. They continue to go down somewhat in this quarter, exactly according to the expectations we had and what we communicated in connection with with the Q3, so that they decrease by 10 points. And also according to the expectations, that it would continue downwards, but perhaps not really in the pace that we have seen earlier this year. But all in all, a stable NIM. And from what we can see now, we are confident that the earlier technical pressure we have had on Räntedäptet is behind us. It is the same picture as we have seen before. If we go to page 12 and talk liquidity, we continue to strengthen ourselves here when we look at the regulatory liquidity measures. Starting with the short-term measure, the LCR continues to rise strongly to 464% at a very good and safe level. Even in the longer term, the NSFR is on good levels, 126%, which is unchanged compared to Q3, but a clear improvement compared to Q4 2024. We have, especially in the beginning of the year and the end of 2020, worked to change both the structure of liquidity, but also the amount of liquidity that we have worked with. And as I said, the liquidity levels are at very high and good levels. Let's go to page 13, where we look at the amount of liquidity. We look at the structural liquidity, that is, our total turnover in relation to the stock. You can see exactly what I said there, how we under Q4-Q1 took clear steps to increase this. was unchanged during the second and third quarter of 2025. And the decline we see here now is completely expected, completely according to the plan, and this is due to the fact that we have have started migrating from Avanza after they shut down their platform. So this migration goes according to plan. We have so far migrated about half of those volumes. Half will remain then. And the plan is that they will be implemented here during the first quarter. We expect that the remaining share will behave roughly the same as the first 50% have done. And that this amount will continue to decrease. It is completely according to the plan then. And that it will probably plan out somewhere just under 1.1 times. And that is a level that we are very confident and comfortable with. We move on to page 14, looking at the different segments. Starting with the business segment. Martin mentioned earlier in his presentation that it is a good sentiment. The volumes are increasing here under Q4. Underlying, we have a volume increase of approximately SEK 700 million. And then we have about SEK 150 million negative in FX effect. The TU4 is seasonally strong, especially when it comes to the factoring side, which performs well. And this benefits the volumes a little bit, and it also benefits the marginals somewhat, and it is up to date. good levels. Seen during the last year, the stock is largely unchanged and the revenues are developing well and are during the same period up with about 8% and 233 million under this quarter. On page 15, the property segment, there are many things that have affected the volume development, just as Martin was talking about. Here we decreased by about 500 million under Q4. About half of it is then currency driven. Apart from step 3, the volumes, this is where we see the effect of the conservative principle we apply when we handle revenue management. Nimmel is quite stable. We see small changes. In this segment, we have the largest number of tickets of our various businesses. Therefore, Nimmel may be a bit slow, depending on the timing of the inflows and outflows in the stock market. But no major changes quarter by quarter here. We go to page 16. The private segment continues to go strong. The stock is up a bit, around 350 million. During the quarter, we have carried out a sale of an NPL stock that had a net value of about 150 million, so an underlying increase in on approximately 500 million isolated here during the fourth quarter. If we look at the NIM, it is still up on very good levels. You can see during the last year how we have strengthened it significantly. A fantastic development where the stock is up 12% in the last year and the revenues during the same period is up with 25% and not only that we have achieved bra volymökningar, bra intäktsökningar utan vi har också gjort det här genom att få ner riskprofilen i boken så att en väldigt bra utveckling för privatsegmentet. Since 2017, if you look at Wally, it continues to be very good. The transaction volumes are, as I said, up with almost 20% year-on-year. As you can see here, the stock is up by 19% and goes up to 3.6 billion, so it's hanging up. And the revenues are up by 17%, so a very good development, especially since we have a a lag on the income side when we bring in new traders, new co-workers, so it takes some time before they reach a certain degree of maturity in the portfolio with us. So when we look forward and into 2026, we have very positive future prospects when it comes to the development of Volley. We go to page 18 and talk about the costs. They go up to 322 million kronor here in the fourth quarter. Then we should remember that the Q4 is a little higher seasonally when it comes to our cost base. So in Q4 2024 it is also here now under Q4 2025. And that season effect goes up to somewhere between 5 and 10 million. And this is due to the seasonally strong flows within both the wallet and factoring side that drives a lot of moving costs. Under 2025, we have seen some cost increases during the year. We have been aware of this to meet the higher levels of regulatory requirements, and not least the IT needs that come as a consequence of the increased regulations. We want to build not only a safe bank, but also a stable bank, a scalable bank. And we are approaching the end of these investments and approaching more and more of what we call an administrative situation in this. So we don't see the same development at all in this type of costs during 2026 as I have seen in the past. And in addition to this type of investment, we have also made clear investments in Wall-E during 2025, as I said earlier. We are very positive about this when we look forward to 2026. So we have built a safer bank, a more scalable bank, and when we get more and more volume on this platform, we expect us to be able to grow with very good scalability forward. The QE ratio is up to 34.6%. Given that we have just gone through it, we both think and hope that we will be able to come down regarding the QE ratio when we look forward in time. We go to page 19. Look at the credit loss reserves. They go up to 199 million kronor. Under Q4, this corresponds to 1.6%. As you can see on the graph here, So we continue to improve, very consistent pattern, a good trend that we have had here for a longer time now and especially during the past year. The same pattern as you see, Martin was in on it earlier, we have fewer customers who get reminders, lower than cash transfers and not only percentual but also in absolute numbers, despite the fact that we continue to grow stocks, especially on the private side that I am in on now. And we notice these results despite the fact that we continue to reserve conservatively. One way to look at it is how we continue to strengthen the reserve levels within Step 3 Private. It goes up to 60.0%. We have strengthened it with a little more than 4 percentages only during the past year and isolated here during the fourth quarter. So we strengthen it with 20 points, despite the fact that we have carried out sales of a cash portfolio that was higher reserved than the average in the book. And in general, there are small effects from both the company and the property side here as well. Go to page 20, where we talk a little more about the sales of the NPL portfolio that we have made. It is very exciting. We have talked about it for a long time and we have received a lot of questions about when we should When are we going to add? When are we going to implement some sales? We have been waiting. We have been waiting because we have had a good financial situation. We have had the opportunity to wait for a good market situation and that a price structure should be established in the market where it is It is very healthy for us to carry out a sale and we are very happy that we have done this during the Q4. This is our first sale. We have so far kept everything on our own book. What we have sold is a portfolio of about 430 million brutto. And this difference does not mean any immediate financial consequences for us, that is, we are making the deduction somewhere around book value. On the other hand, it will have a positive impact on the capital side of about 150 million kronor. It will not come as a Post here is under Q4 because we have closed the transaction should add here under Q4 also without it coming over time. And this is because the canceled portfolio is then backstop affected loans where the additional withdrawals are not done today, but through the sale we avoid future withdrawals of about 150 million kronor, but regardless a very positive capital effect during the next two to three years. If we go to page 21, summing it all up, looking at the movement result, it goes up to 407 million. That is an increase of 7% compared to the corresponding period for the previous year. And as Martin mentioned earlier, this is despite the fact that we have had a negative FX effect, not only on the stock, but also on the result. So adjusted for that, the result would have increased by 9% during the corresponding period. If we look at the EPS, it increases by 9%, which is more than the underlying result, and here you can see the effects of the repurchases of our own shares that we have started with and have carried out here during 2025. So the EPS is up by 9% and adjusted for currency effects, it would have been up by 11%. On page 22, looking at the withdrawal of own capital, it goes up to 13% compared to 13.5% the previous year. This is a somewhat lower level, while both the turnover and EPS are up during the previous year. And the reason for this is that we have accumulated more and more surplus capital during 2025. We have been affected by this, as I said, and if instead we were to adjust the surplus capital, if we had had a capital coverage that is with a 300-point buffer in the middle of our financial goal to maintain a buffer of between 200 and 400 points if we just take the middle point in that interval. Return on equity had risen to 14.9% under Q4, which is 1.9% higher than the reported figure. And as you can see in the graph, it has shown an increase in the drop during 2025. And as you can see, the effect has become gradually higher and higher the further into 2025 we have come. And this is despite the fact that we have made a buyback of 1 billion during the entire year 2025. If we go to page 23 and look at the capital coverage, it is very, very strong. Main capital relation at 15.6%, total capital relation at 18.4%. So very, very strong levels. On total capital level, where we actually have the smallest buffer, then you should compare it with our capital requirement at 13.1%, that is, we have a buffer on 530 points to compare with our financial goal of having between 200 and 400 points. So it is a clear reinforcement throughout the year, despite the fact that we have bought back shares for 1 billion kronor each of the second resale program of 500 million was completed in its entirety and ended here under Q4. Under Q4, we have also successfully emitted assets worth SEK 500 million. So we do not only have a strong capital position with a clear surplus of capital, we also have a more effective capital structure now compared to what we have had before. And this surplus capitalization we have in mind to handle through further purchase of shares here under 2026. If we go to page 24, on the left side here, we can see clearly how this surplus capital has gradually been built up and increased under 2025. Compared to the midpoint of our capital interval, we have a surplus per year shift of about 1.3 billion. And as I said, the way we are going to handle that is with the goal of doing more stock repurchases. So where are we now? I have said a couple of times here that we have bought back shares for a total of 1 billion under 2025. We have bought back 15.6 million shares. That corresponds to 7.6% of the total number of outstanding shares in the bank. We have a limitation that we at any given time will have a maximum of 10% when it comes to our own shares. So we have 2.4% left and we have as a goal to as soon as possible, that is, when we have received the financial inspection's permission to do so, to launch another resale program. up to SEK 500 million. However, we are limited to 4.9 million shares. This corresponds to the 2.4% that we have left to exploit. You have also seen that we have called for an extra company vote that will be held here on the 13th of February and on the agenda then is quite simply to make a decision to withdraw and immaculate these 15.6 billion shares that we which we currently own, and this is simply to create more flexibility and space for potentially more repurchases later during the year 2026 as well. The fourth point we will also suggest for the ordinary vote in May, that it makes the decision to renew this 10% mandate we have, which gives an opportunity to continue to buy back shares. And finally, depending on what the capital situation looks like, we have as a clear ambition to launch additional resale programs later in 2026 to handle the surplus capital that we have today. With that, we go to page 25 and then I'll leave it back to Martin again.
Toppen, stort tack Peter. Vi går in på sidan 25 och så pratar vi lite om konsensus, asset management. Vi har ju under en tid tillbaka haft ambition att bredda banken lite. Får vi inte ute efter att skapa någon full service bank utan vi ska vara specialister på våra respektive områden. Men vi tycker det är attraktivt med wealth management. Vi får en A business that is easier from a balance calculation perspective, just like Wally. We have the opportunity to get another housing in another row within the situation, rent net only. And then we have thought in different ways. Should we start it ourselves from scratch or should we acquire something? And we have gone through a lot of different interesting acquisitions and ended up in consensus. We think it suits us well. Vi tror det finns en bra potential att skala den affären. Vi måste få den här affären lönsam naturligtvis. Och det ser vi goda förutsättningar att kunna göra. Vi vill också bygga det här till att bli större. Det ska kunna synas på vinsten. Det ska synas i banken att det här gynnar bankens totala lönsamhet. Så det här är inte någon tanke att bara har 9 miljarder AUM, utan här är det att bygga större framåt. Jag tror det finns goda möjligheter att skapa sordryftsfördelar framåt genom att lägga på put on a bigger AUM. So as I said, we have ambitions to grow this clearly bigger than it is today. In addition to that, we want to get into this area, which is capital, housing and other income. So we see income synergies in this consensus has, as you can see a little on the picture, around the geography down to the right. Consensus has about 25 people out in the country today. Typical places where large banks have maybe centralized to move from there. There are good customers there, a little the same customer types as our segment in companies and factories, medium-sized customers, although perhaps less interesting for large banks, which we think are very interesting. And what I mean by income synergy is that De här kundansvaret ute i landet, inom konsensus, ska ju kunna vara en form av ordination till oss, till våra befintliga produkter, såsom företagsskriter, fastighetsskriter, facting, att vi faktiskt får ett flöde även där till våra befintliga produkter. Apart from that, we think it was a good, valuable deal to do. We pay 1.3% of AUM, so I think this will be an interesting area to follow forward and that we will try to grow over time, which helps the bank's total profitability. Yes, that was probably all I had about that. If we go to page 26, we summarize a little. It feels like we are getting lower rents. We see a market that is more interested in doing business. There is a different will to risk. The activities are good. It was the new Q4, we see that it will roll in even under 2026 as far as we have seen. Above all, I actually mean all parts, company credits, factoring, property credits. Wall-E has a very good position, we have chosen to invest in it, strategic investment. We have a very good momentum, we think we will see good results. of Wall-E forward. Privately, it continues to be very good. We have been setting up this business for many years and it is rolling very well, so we think we have good momentum in all areas. We have, Peter has been talking about it, the capital situation is very, very good. We have the intention to continue our resumption mandates. Så jag tycker vi går in i ett år med lite bättre momentum och en god aktivitet framåt. Så vi har goda förhoppningar om det här året. Ja, jag tror det var det jag skulle ha med mig. Med det tackar jag och Petra för att ni tog er tid och så öppnar vi upp för frågor. Tack!
Under frågestunden kan deltagarna ställa frågor genom att trycka fyrkant 5 på sin telefon. Om du vill dra tillbaka din fråga, vänligen tryck fyrkant 6. Nästa fråga kommer ifrån Emil Jonsson från DNB Carnegie. Varsågod.
Tack så mycket. God morgon. I was going to start by asking if you could develop and give some color to what led to the fact that the real estate rate fell almost 10% compared to the level in Q3?
Yes, I can take that. On the one hand, we have had a lot of FX changes and it is mainly the EUROSEC exchange rate that affects even there and then mainly within inom vårt fastighetssegment. Det är väl det enda någonstans. Sedan också så ska man komma ihåg att stocken minskar med ungefär 500 miljoner, ungefär hälften av det, FX-drivet, men vi har haft with quite large flows, both in and out payments during the quarter and what we see is a timing effect rather than that we notice a marginal pressure there. Real estate is the segment where we have the largest ticket sizes of all our segments and The slowness, depending on the timing of the flows, is probably the most recognizable right there. But there is no underlying drama, there is no underlying price pressure. The stock has not been revalued in that way in a quarter.
Okay. And if you look at the number of 2-3 loans in corporate real estate, så verkar det ha tagit längre tid än ni väntade er i början av året att få ner den mängden lån. Skulle ni kunna hjälpa oss att förstå mer exakt vad det var som ni väntade er att ske som inte har spelat ut
Ja absolutt, det stämmer. Vi minskar i summa 250 miljoner. Vi har minskat med 800 miljoner på ett år och 1,8 miljarder sen Q1 2024. Vi trodde att vi skulle minska ytterligare än vad vi har gjort framförallt i slutet av året. De grejerna som vi hade förväntat oss har egentligen rullat in. i Q1, Q2, så kan man säga. De här processerna pågår fortfarande. Men det är inte att det bara tagit lite tid. Vi vill ju komma ur steg tre på så optimalt sätt som möjligt. Vi har en bra kapitalsituation. Vi har ingen stress att blå med det. Vi bokar inte ränteintäkterna. Vi vill hellre att vi kommer ur det på ett bra sätt. Det är lite som MPL. We have done MPL sales here and we have been waiting for the right time to do it so that it will be as good as possible from a result perspective. And that's really what we do here, even with step 2 and step 3. So what we thought Q4 actually rolled over in H1, as we see it right now. So the processes are still ongoing. There may be new counterparts. and or to be able to come up, but we see improvements here during the first half as we see it right now.
It's just that it has taken a little longer. Is there any way that I, who is sitting outside, can get some kind of confidence that it will happen during H1 and that it will not be shot up to H2 in the end?
Jag kan inte garantera någonting. Det går enligt plan, så kan man säga. Det går enligt plan att minska. Det är bara att det har dragit ut lite längre än vi trodde. Det är svårt att lova någonting. Det hade jag gärna gjort, men det är hellre att vi bevisar det än att sitta och lova i förtid.
Okay, fair enough. En fråga som kanske egentligen är för styrelsen egentligen, men Har ni någon känsla för om det finns någon anledning att man väljer att fortsätta med en förhållandevis hög takt på återköp nu istället för att bara invänta Balders aktieutdelning som skulle kunna komma om bara några månader?
What you see here is a combination of the two. We have a margin of 2.4%. Now we are talking about up to SEK 500 million. It depends on where the share price goes and the amount we spend on it. But given the surplus capital we have today of approximately SEK 1.3 billion, Depending on how it develops, depending on profitability and growth and other things here, there is a good reason to believe that we will be able to have a significant capacity to be able to be there in the market later this spring as well.
That was the answer to the question Emil, to meet Valdo.
After that, let's say that you have managed to buy back now at 500 million. It depends on the share price and so on, but let's say that it will be so. Then you should have surplus capital at maybe a little under one billion, given that the backstop contract is still there. But if you look at Baldr's list of owners, Känns det rimligt att det skulle mycket väl kunna komma säljtryck på över en miljard från diverse fastighetsfonder och så? Hade det inte varit mer fördelaktigt att då ha så mycket kapital som möjligt redo för att kunna möta så mycket säljtryck som möjligt ifall det skulle ske? Givet att ändå inte det är så lång tid bort.
Jo, det är en bra tanke. Men som sagt, vi har ju det här sista vi gör under Q1, och sen så har vi ju förhoppningar att få ett ytterligare återköpsmandat. Sen om det möter Valvers helt eller inte, det är svårt att säga.
En sista fråga bara. På det här förvärvet av Konsensus, I know that you have not talked about entering any kind of wealth management business before. Rather, you have talked earlier about continuing to focus on the core business. What made you change your position on that?
I don't know if we have a position, but we want to expand the bank. We want to have more legs to stand on. And it's not like we're going to be a full-service bank. It's not like we see anything beyond that. But we like wealth management. It's a bit like the customer group we have within the company. It's medium-sized customers who are a little too small for the big banks. The big banks have centralized to the big cities. It is related to the strategy we have a little bit about companies and factoring, especially and also properties. There are a lot of customers who do real estate business, so it fits in quite well in that strategy. And then we also want to have a business area where wealth management is a little correlated with oil. It does not draw so much balance and it gives a boost on a different rate of income. So it's quite strategically similar to our corporate segment, that we talk about customer groups. And then, as I said, it's a product that's easy to balance. It's a property other than the rent net. Also, we think 1.3% of AOM is a really good deal. And then we have the hope that to grow it over time, and we believe that consensus has a good offer, so that we can get quite good profitability. So it's really another segment that we've looked at a little bit, and evaluators think it's strategically right, both from a customer perspective and that it boosts other rates of income, and that it's a capital-oriented business. So we look forward to being able to have a reasonable profitability that contributes to the bank's total profit.
Okay, that was all my questions, but thank you very much. Thank you Emil.
The next question comes from Björn Olsson from CEP, please go ahead.
Thank you, two questions. First on costs, you mention that you think that the cost search will be delayed this year. Can you give a little more sense of how much cost search we have seen that is within compliance and the like, as you are talking about on the regulatory side? and how much of it is investments in Wall-E, as well as if you think that the consensus acquisition also means that you need more regular survival investments since there is some regulation also on the asset management side. And the other question is if we look at, as you say, that the consensus acquisition is partly to strengthen the corporate segment, and you actually grow in all segments apart from real estate. Should we say that you are making a careful pivot towards becoming stronger, especially on the corporate side and perhaps the payment side?
Hello Björn, good morning. Good questions, thank you. Let's start with question 1. If you look at 322, this Q4 is a strong quarter, especially for Wall-E, and it draws a little more costs. It's BankID and UC and so on, it draws a little extra cost, it's a mobile cost in Wall-E, so if they draw 5 to 10 million on the 322, then you have that cost, the mobile cost increase. If you look ahead, we see here that we have wanted to have stability in the bank. We have tackled a lot of regularity issues. It's both about team spirit and IT development. That's where we start to get clear. The investment pace we've had in the last three years will not continue. We have the biggest investments behind us, but for us it is very important to have en stabil bank och att vi har koll på regelverket. Det är A och O i bank för oss. Vi är övertygade om att kostnaden inte kommer att öka. Sen så var vi landar lite framåt. Jag vet inte riktigt vad jag ska svara på den frågan egentligen. Det kommer inte bli några större kostnadsökningar kan jag säga. Så det är ingen dramatik från, om vi säger då, vad hade vi 3,22 ner till 3,10, 3,15. Har du något tillägg Peter om vi kan...
No, but as I said earlier, at the level of 3.22, you have to be able to compare. The Q3 is also seasonally low when it comes to costs. The Q4 is seasonally high. Vi har haft en del en del ökningar. Vi tror inte att kostnaderna egentligen ska ner framåt men återigen vi har byggt en väldigt skalbar plattform och ökningstakten kommer vara betydligt lägre när vi tittar framåt mot vad vi haft tidigare så att vi ser goda förutsättningar och komma tillbaka med ett lägre KI-tal mot vad vi rapporterar nu.
Kommer vi inte med svar på frågan Björn?
Yes, but we are in line. If you say you have 6% year-on-year, if you take a quarter, then we can imagine more in line with wage inflation and so on.
Yes, absolutely. That is completely understood. That is our ambition. That was it, right? What other questions did you have?
I remember question two. Possibly, partly because the consensus process itself involves additional regulatory costs, and perhaps also on that topic, if you have any last points with FI, or if there are any checkpoints where they should approve something or something that could be given.
We see no increased costs in the form of regulations around consensus. That will not drive higher costs as we see it. On the other hand, we need to get profitability in this business. We have no business that loses money. And it loses 6-8 million a year, so we have to come to terms with profitability. Det har vi en bra plan för. Och gällande då, som du sa, det ska ju ägarprövas och så vidare hos Finansinspektionen. Så vår förväntan är ju, det vi har idag, att det här affären bör vara klar i slutet av Q1 eller början av Q2. Det är det jag har kring det. Men jag tror också, som du var inne lite på det också Björn, This is what we call income synergies. For us, in addition to the fact that we like wealth management, because it is capital and it can host another group, for us then, not just the income network, we suddenly get a capacity out in the country. We are talking about 25-30 people. It is not that they should do business and property, korpa eller företag och fastighetsaffärer men de har ett bra kontaktnät ute på orter där vi inte riktigt finns idag så att de har ju en väldigt bra kundgrupp i sin wealth management där vi ser att de personerna kan också vara intressanta kunder i vår befintliga verksamhet det vill säga företag och fastigheter och factory så där får vi på köpet på något sätt en origination kapacitet. Det var nog det, ja. Var det svar, eller? Ja. Grymt. Tack. Tack själv, Björn. Ha det fint. Samma.
Det finns inga fler frågor just nu, så jag lämnar över ordet till talarna för eventuella avslutande kommentarer.
Tack alla för att ni tog att lyssna. Då tackar Peter och jag för oss och önskar en fin dag.