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7/5/2024
Hello and welcome to our half-year report. My name is Johanna Hult-Rensch, and with me I have... Trevor Collin. We're going to take you through the first half of the year. If we sum up the year, or the half of the year so far, we see that the rents have increased by 17%. And in comparison to the stock, the growth was 8%. So that's a strong message in this market. The online news is still positive. It is the 15th quarter in a row. We are very proud of that, but also saddened by future changes in demand due to the effects of a weaker economy. We have record levels on our renegotiated contract volumes. For us, it is only two quarters earlier that we have been at this level. In an isolated quarter, this volume is larger than during previous years. This results in a turnover that increased by 19% and an administrative result that increased to SEK 345 million. The other thing to mention is that we maintain our investment grade rating from NCR, and we are also awarded the award for the year's winner in circular construction and reuse, and we are very happy about that. I will start by taking you through the market situation in Gothenburg. We start with the economic activity and the economy. Conjuncturen har stärkts de senaste två kvartalen på rad. I två utav fyra sektorer så upplever Göteborgsregionens företag att nuläget är normalt. Tjänstesektorn upplever konjunkturläget som normalsvagt och byggindustrin känner fortsatt en lågkonjunktur. Samtidigt pågår en hel del omvärldsfaktorer som dämpar förväntningarna om konjunkturen under 2024. The expected BNP growth in the region's 10 strongest markets is 1.6%, 24%, and then increases to 1.9, 25%. There we see a turn. The last period shows that job growth in Gothenburg is still positive, but of course it has slowed down in terms of the year. We have unemployment in this region that is rising, as in the rest of the country, but it is clearly the lowest. It is at 5.8 percent. The majority of Sweden is at 6.8 percent. Welfare contests will probably increase a little before it turns. Gothenburg's growth rate has, as I said, been decimated, but it is from high levels. In the last ten years, we have had a regional BNP growth of 72 percent. It is almost close to that of China, standing at 90 percent. The rural area is at 17%, so we are coming from quite high levels. So we can summarize it as if the Gothenburg region actually stands strong. And what is it then that makes Gothenburg stand a little stronger and more resistant than the rest of Sweden? First of all, we have a underlying factor called population growth. According to SEB's latest statistics, our city is expected to grow the most in the country in the coming years. And then something fundamental happens in this region. It is obvious how this green transition drives growth. We have a lot of industries, 750 in total. In this picture, you can see some of the investments that are taking place. Here we have Novo Battery Factory on the left. It's an investment of 30 billion SEK. 3,000 employees are coming in here. They're on a trip to Stommen, out in Torslanda, right next to our industrial and logistics facilities. The investment in the region is expected to give us about 10,000 new jobs in total. Vi har också den mest attraktiva staden för framtidens arbetskraft. För andra året i rad så är Göteborg den stad som välutbildande svenskar helst vill jobba i. Jag tror att det är det landets industriella centrum som har den här stora betydelsen för den svenska ekonomin och den gröna omställningen. Det ser vi också i attraktiviteten när det gäller att attrahera kompetenta resurser till regionen. Forskningsresurserna i Sverige ligger högst i Göteborgsregionen. Det är 34 procent av den privata FOU-satsningen som går in i den här regionen. Det är ungefär 45 miljarder kronor per år. Göteborg och Västsverige står för ungefär 25 procent, 350 miljoner av svensk varuexport. Det är nästan dubbelt så högt som rikssnittet. And I have a good picture of it here. You can see very clearly how this growth in exports at 5.9% in recent years is twice as high as the national average. And of course, the largest export markets are still growing. Göteborgs hamn, som är ett nav i Skandinavien när det gäller gods in och ut, växer kontinuerligt. Även det första kvartalet så slog containerhanteringen nya rekord. Det ska jämföras med övriga Europa där det oftast minskar faktiskt. Vi håller också på här med en farlighetsfördjupning i hamnen. Det är en stor infrastruktursatsning och innebär att världens största fartyg kan tas in här om några år. Det är lite kort om marknaden utzoomat. Nu tänkte jag att jag skulle prata lite mer om våra två segment, kontor och industrilogistik. Vi har ungef är 960 000 kvadratmeter, nästan en miljon. De här två segmenten är fina komplement till varandra. Jag ska berätta lite mer varför nu. Vi börjar med kontorsmarknaden. Göteborgs kontorsmarknad visar fortsatt en stabil utveckling, även om vakansgraderna är på historiskt höga nivåer, de ligger runt 11% och de ligger kvar på samma nivå som vi egentligen gjorde för ett år sedan, så kan man också ta med sig det att det har faktiskt skett en 3% ökning av kontorsstocken, alltså 90 000 kvadratmeter som har kommit in under motsvarande period. The rate of vacancies is unchanged on a yearly basis. If we look at the rental market as such, we have stable rents. We actually have some top levels, as noted by ICBD and Möndal, during this quarter. What we see is a lower take-up in the first half of the year than it has been before. But at the same time as the demand for new surfaces looks a little lower in the beginning of 2024, then reflected by the new surface volumes that exist and the supply of new surfaces that will come out, then it happens in a calmer pace, one can say, in Gothenburg in the coming two years. So if we look at 2025 and 2026, the supply is much more limited. It is 0.7% approximately of the stock, and we see that in this picture. Vi har ju den puckel som vi har haft med oss sedan 2021-2022 och om vi fokuserar på inringningen här så ser vi ju då att 2025 och 2026 är det väldigt lite som tillförs och därför så är min bedömning att vi kommer ha nedåt tickande vakansgrader här under de kommande två åren. To summarize what our office budget looks like, the value is 22 billion. We have about 560,000 square meters of accessible space and we have 240,000 building rights in our budget. Here are a few pictures of what has happened during this quarter. To the left we see pictures from Aria. It is a newly built property that we have completed here during the quarter. This is Lilla Bommen in the central area. And the entire surrounding area of this area is something that we will see a lot more of when it comes to the Göteborgsmarknad. Det är fem minuters gångavstånd till centralstationen och det ligger precis mitt emot operan. Vi flyttade vårt eget huvudkontor till det här området i Lilla Bommen det sista året. Det har gjort att det är aktiverat. området ytterligare. Ni som var lite uppmärksamma och läste pressreleaser igår ser att Skandik har gått ut med en satsning där man ska tillföra 180 rum precis i det här området. Så det här är ett jättespännande område som kommer i framtiden och även detaljplanen som ligger i norra Norrstaden har vunnit laga kraft. Så här kommer vi få en rejäl skjuts skulle jag tro de senaste kommande åren. Till höger ser vi Södra Engården och den internationella engelska skolan som vi håller på att färdigställa. Här kommer 900 elever starta i augusti. Det är en otroligt fin skolbyggnad och den första delen som är klart in the area that we call Söderängården. It is an area that we have developed and urbanized for many years. 2,000 apartments will be built and the first project is started. It is building rights that we have sold to housing developers. If we look at industrial logistics, our stock is in the area that is Sweden's best logistics location. And Gothenburg has topped this list since 2001, 22 of 23 times, I think. And that has to do with the fact that the port, the train terminal and the airport are located in this logistics hub. And our base is in the middle of this best position, also often with port-close, port-and-key contact. Therefore, the industrial logistics market in Gothenburg is somewhat different from Sweden in general. We have a low rate of vacancy of 4% and we also have a liquid transaction market in this segment. There is a lack of land and there is still good demand. We also see that e-commerce has strengthened somewhat after a few tough years. The rent levels are determined to be unchanged. They are somewhere around 900 kronor per square meter. And the yields in this segment were adjusted very quickly, as you know. And the prime yield right now is at 5.25 in industrial logistics, in the best locations in Gothenburg. This is a summary. If we look at part of our real estate value, it is 25%. one of our asset values in the industry and logistics sector. It is a very nice and strong complement to our office segment. Gothenburg is an industry and knowledge city, and many of the customers are the same in both of these segments. Today, we have 110,000 square meters of buildable project opportunities. And what is nice about this type of project is that they are fast, they create a cash flow very quickly and it is a limited risk. So here we can continue to develop in a market where we do not have a lot of competition, but it feels very good. A high discount as well. And now I'm going to go into our network distribution. And then we're back to the whole stock, of course. As we mentioned earlier, the net sales are still positive. It is one million up in the quarter, and we are positive for 15 quarters in a row. If we look at the curve when the net sales were at its highest, we had very large project volumes to work with, and for natural reasons, the volumes are not really as large. But as I said, it was positive in the quarter, and the new contracts during the period ligger på 13 miljoner kronor. De ligger både i affärsområdet kontor på nio och affärsområdet industrilogistik på fyra. Jag nämnde inledningsvis att vi ligger på rekordnivåer i omförhandlingsvolym och det är ju viktigt för oss därför att vi vill ju behålla våra kunder och de relationer som vi har. Vi har omförhandlat 83 miljoner in this quarter and it is actually more than the previous year's academic negotiations. The income increase was 11%, which is a good income increase and well above the index. Vi passade också på att förlänga de återstående kontraktstiden i snittet med sex månader så att vi är uppe på 54 som snitt nu. 54 månader som snittlängd på våra kontrakt i hela portföljen. Vi förbättrade också överskottsgraden jämfört med förra året. Den är på 79%. Med det så tänkte jag att jag skulle lämna över till dig Fredrik som ska tas igenom Our turnover and results.
Yes, a few figures. And the 54 months is something we keep from Q1. We also had the same, but compared to previous years, it is 54 months in contract length. As Johanna mentioned, it is essential for us to work with our cash flow, which we have done and also deliver this quarter. De stora drivarna till vår hyresintäktsökning som ökar med 17 procent, det är ju givetvis förvärvet som vi gjorde i halvårsskiftet föregående år. Sedan är det våra färdigställda projekt som har flyttats in och tagits i bruk. Främst i logistik, men vi har även kompletterande i bruktagande i Knium kopplat till hotellet. Then we have the index increase that affects positively by 23 million for a comparable period in the previous year. And we also have net inflows and outflows by 17 million positively. What is also a difference compared to the accumulated period in the previous year is the electricity support that we took in in Q2 last year, which meant that we took down our revenues by about 10 million. We also took down costs by 15 million in Q2. So that's a difference when you compare these figures to each other. PILs revenues accumulated 811 million kronor, which is super good. And then we have the real estate costs, which are also increasing. Now we have positive improvements. Our acquisition in Sverre Logistikpark, three properties, and then our finished project, which also kicks off and draws a little more costs. A difference we have compared with the half-year 2023 is that we have seen lower media costs in this half-year by 12 million kronor, which is beneficial for our property cost rate. Och då, som jag nämnde, elstödets effekt på våra kostnader påverkar de 15 miljoner. Och utöver det något övrigt. Det här gör ju då att vår överskottsgrad kommer upp till 79 procent. Och sedan har vi dessutom en ekonomisk uthyrningsgrad som är bättre för den här perioden med en procentenhet jämfört med förra året. 93 procent. Vår intjäningsförmåga då, vilket är inte en prognos utan det är tecknade avtal och genomförda avflyttar som ligger i vår avtalsportfölj, om man så säger, som är den bästa indikationen. Hur ser det ut framåt då? Och då ser vi hur väl det stämmer jämfört med resultatet, försöker vi visa med den här grafen. Då har vi utfall för 2019 kopplat till vilken intjäningsförmåga presenterade vi i Q4 2018, och hur väl har de här stämt över tid. Och då menar vi att det här är en guide over where we are on the road. And this is income minus costs, that is, the operating cost. And if you compare this with Q1, we have a little lower on the top line and therefore a little lower operating cost, and it is linked to losses that have occurred. We present in the report our entire income and also known So this will be all the same. If we don't increase the development further from the current situation, then we have a negative next quarter. But we have shown that now that we cable up our arms and drive on, our goal is that this will be a rising trend. What is essential is that we do not have the same issues that we have had historically when it comes to projects and project rentals, which gives a potential for growth in a different way than when we mostly work with existing assets. But this is something that we are working hard on. The cash flow should go into the top line and keep the costs. In terms of property values and our property value, we come out of the period with 28.4 billion in property value. During the period we have made investments of 419 million. Then we have negative unrealized value changes of about 240 million. If you look at the unrealized value changes a little more in detail, From our project development, where we do our profit calculations, depending on where we are in the project, we have a positive effect of 130 million. Then, on the cash flow side, we have a negative effect of over SEK 200 million linked to deposits and other things that affect our property value. And then we have GILD. The observant reader has seen in the report that we have 508 in average GILD. för hela beståndet, vilket vi även hade i kvartal 2. Men justeringen är på marginalen. Det är några enstaka fastigheter, så det är 0,8 baspunkt i gildjustering uppåt som har skett under perioden, som utmynnar i de här negativa 152. Totalt 237 i en negativ värdeförändring, orealiserat. Nyckeltalsmässigt... Värdet påverkar ju såklart vårt värde som vi ställer vår skuld emot och det här är ju ett arbete att jobba med att set themselves in the right context when it comes to risk profile and risk activity. We have a goal where we will have a loan rate that over time will not exceed 50%. We are at 50% now, the same as in the previous quarter. We are working to meet this with the best of our ability, so to speak. And we can momentarily go over these 50%, but our goal is still to reach Not on, but rather below 50%. And if we look forward, we see with transactions that we have committed ourselves to, on the one hand when it comes to acquisitions, then we need to work with the other side of the strategic transactions in order to mitigate those effects in order to get a solid and stable balance calculation even forward then. Vår utgående snittränta, vilket är väsentligt något som får effekt på förvaltningsresultatet. Även där jobbar vi på hårt och kollar upp ärmarna, men för att möta den tidigare ökade marknadsräntan, den korta. Now we have had a period when it goes down, which we appreciate, and that has a certain impact on our average interest rate. 4.13% in the outgoing average interest rate, which is 0.07% down from the previous quarter, which is very good. This also has a bearing on our interest rate level, which is stable around 2.1 times right now, and linked to the fact that we har en bättre överskottsgrad så har vi också effekt på vår direktavkastning givetvis. 4,5 för perioden, 4,6 i isolerat kvartal. Men Q2 jämfört med Q1 så har vi lite olika kostnadsmassa. Q1 är ett kallt kvartal, där har vi 4,4 och 4,6. Q2 summerat 4,5 just nu. Finansiella nyckeltal och finansiering då, We continue to work to connect the capital allocation system with our sustainability work, which is important not only for places and Gothenburg, but it is of global interest. We are trying to connect as much as possible and help capital både på skuld- och equity-sidan, på aktiesidan, att hitta gröna investeringar och då gärna genom platser, ligger just nu på 65% hållbar investering. Och då är det kopplat till gröna banklån, gröna MTNs, gröna säkerställda MTNs via SFF eller hållbarhetslänkade banklån. Så det är bara att välja, men vi fortsätter att jobba och utveckla det i det nu. We have also got a renewed Nasdaq Green Designation stamp, which is a quality stamp on our stock. We as a company work with sustainability in focus. This stamp, which we now have for the third year in a row, is to help investors. When you look at Nasdaq's list, there is a green stamp there. If you are looking for sustainable investments, this is our stamp. Our way of working is also based on the S&P Global Ratings, which has put our way of working in place and can therefore be approved by the Green Party in the future. Sustainability.
Yes, and when we are talking about sustainability, what do we do in the sustainability area? These are some examples. We have recently done a climate calculation on one of our tree troughs in our logistics facilities. We have three logistics facilities that we have traveled with tree troughs instead of steel. And then we see that we get an impact that is 7% less on the CO2 footprint. It feels great. We have also, as I mentioned earlier, been listed as the year's peak. When it comes to recycling and circular construction, it is a price that is obligatory. And I think it's fun because it means that you notice our shift in how we work with recycling. So you will certainly hear more of it from me. When it comes to the energy goals of the year, they will be a little more challenging to achieve. Energy optimization has been our focus for a long time, the last ten years. And if you remember here at the change of year, I was very proud of the 9% reduction that we made in comparable stock last year. And if we compare ourselves with industry colleagues, we are one of the companies that actually has the lowest or best in our comparable stock. We have during this last time had a lot of leakage actually, source media leakage, and that makes us get a little more challenges, I think. So that's something we need to work with in the future and to get our output down. Finally, on a more positive note, we have increased our certified area when it comes to visible areas, so we are up 61%. Last year it was 56%, so that feels good. I was going to tell a little about the potential and our focus on area development that we run. Vi har ju våra tre ben. Vi jobbar med förvaltning och där är jag ju jättestolt över det arbetet som vår förvaltning gör och det fokus på kassaflödet som verkligen visar sig i den här rapporten. Utöver det här så har vi ju ungefär 350 000 kvadratmeter byggrätter i vårt bestånd. So we work with these two legs and also with the strategic transactions that Fredrik mentioned earlier. Gårda, in the far left here. Here we see Kineum, which was completed one and a half years ago with S-hotel Jaysys, among other things, as large tenants. In the additional properties here, we have quite a lot of stock in Gårda. And here we have a little fun news, because we have just signed Sweden's first electric mack with Circle K. So it will be a very exciting stock to activate parts of Gårda. We also have other big charity guests, of course, as we have mentioned, and Nordic Wellness also opens here in the fall, so it feels great to get started with that. Gamlestaden är ett utvecklingsområde och ligger i 550 år gamla Göteborg, den äldsta delen av Göteborg. And here we have continued to work on creating the food and cultural destination that we have really invested in here. We have opened the pizzeria Dubbelhaken and Ego Gin Destillery and Cocktail Bar. And that makes Forum Design Marknad, which we previously opened, it makes them a company for this creation of the destination and of course strengthens it. Then we have Möndal, in the foreground here we have Mimo, which we will then include in our stock here under Q4 as it looks now. It will be 80% sold before we take over the property and it is 70% sold per day. Möndal is one of our area investments and a prioritized area. It is a strong development municipality. They have won the prize as the year's development municipality under 2023 and almost always on the podium in this type of awards. When it comes to the increase, as I said, it was sometime in Q4, we would think. And this is part of the strategic transactions and part of the core business. And we will meet it when we also start the transaction market here in Gothenburg, with looking at the rest of the stocks. And it will be easier somewhere. I have told you about Arendal Torslanda. We continue with our projects, fast projects in our industrial logistics. Fantastic possibilities, 110,000 square meters that we can continue to develop here. Finally, I would like to summarize what we see as our success factors. Vi är experter på Göteborg, vi finns ju bara här och kan verkligen den här marknaden. Vi sätter vår kund i fokus och det ser vi i de här omförhandlingsvolymerna att vi också uppskattas av våra kunder. Det har jag ett väldigt stort fokus på i arbetet, att ligga nära kunder och se till att vi har fulla hus. Vi har en lönsam tillväxtplan som består av de här tre stycken benen som jag har nämnt. Vi har en diversifierad portfölj som kompletterar varandra. Marknaderna fungerar lite olika på kontor och industri och logistik. Men vi ser verkligen att de här två stöttar varandra i den här marknaden. Vi har ett fantastiskt fint engagerade team och medarbetare. Och vi har en stabil finansiering som vi lyfter oss mot. Med detta så vill jag nog avsluta den här presentationen och gå över till Q&A.
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