Raketech Group Holding PLC

Good morning, we welcome you to the EDP and EDP Renewables 9-month 2025 results presentation. If you wish to ask a question at any time during the presentation, you may type it on the Ask a Question box on the webcast. Please note that only written questions will be taken on today's presentation. If you're experiencing any difficulty in listening to the conference at any time, please make sure you have your headset fully plugged in, or alternatively, please try calling from a different device. And now, hand the conference over to Mr. Miguel Viana, Head of IR and ESG. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning. Welcome to EDP and EDPR 9 Months 2025 Results Conference Call. We have with us today our CEO, Miguel Stuart Andrade, and our CFO, Rui Teixeira, that will present you the main highlights of EDP and EDPR financial performance in these first nine months of 2025. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session in which we'll be receiving just recent questions that you can insert from now onwards in the text box available in the webcast. As we'll have just later on at 10 a.m. London time, our Capital Markets Day presentation, so the Q&A session will be focused on teams around the nine months financial performance. I'll pass now the floor to our CEO, Miguel Stoel de Andrade.

Thank you, Miguel, and good morning, everyone. So thank you for attending our nine months 2025 results conference call. As Miguel said, we'll be doing the EDP results and then the EDPR, so really a two-in-one call, but for the reasons that Miguel has already mentioned. And so I'll go straight into the EDP overall numbers. If you go to slide three, we'll see the recurring net profit has reached 974 million euros in the first nine months of the year. So that's up 5% in underlying terms. And that reflects basically higher wind and solar installed capacity, higher generation, and also the resilient electricity networks. On the wind and solar front, underlying EBITDA is growing 21% year-on-year, and that's supported by almost 20 gigawatts of installed capacity, and generation up also 14% year-on-year. Electricity networks, they continue to show good resilience. Underlying performance, excluding asset rotation gains and FX, is increasing 30% year-on-year. And our integrated business in Iberia is also delivering solid results. So although year-on-year comparison was impacted by higher sourcing costs, lower hydro volumes, and lower contracted prices, this was partially mitigated by the performance of our FlexGen fleet in Iberia. It's also important to note that the asset rotation gains were lower at this point in the year, so 55 million euros versus 250 million euros last year, so the same time last year at the EBITDA level. And I think that just reinforces the strength of our underlying performance, if you look at the numbers X capital gains. Finally, just to mention, We continue to show an improvement in efficiency with lower costs and better productivity metrics, for example, in things like OPEX per megawatts, et cetera, and Hui will get into that in his slides. So overall, these results underscore the strength of our integrated model, even in the context of reduced asset rotation gains. And with that, I'll pass it over to Hui to present the EDP and the EDPR financials.

Thank you very much, Miguel. Good morning to you all. So let me start first with EDP's results, and then moving to slide five. So our EBITDA reached 3.7 billion in the nine months of 2025. That's a 2% increase on underlying year-on-year, or actually 4% when excluding FX effects. So let's look to the recurring figures. Renewables, clients, energy management decreased 99 million year-on-year, And this is coming from 198 million decrease in this segment, the hydro clients and energy management, comparing last year the fact that we have now lower hydro volumes, lower contracted price, and higher sourcing costs. This is mainly in Iberia, and there is also some FX impact in Brazil. Strong performance of EDPR, 1,100 million euros year-on-year. If we compare last year's asset rotation gains of 179 million with this year's 59 million, this means an increase of 231 million in underlying terms, driven by the increase in installed capacity, and obviously this is following the record additions we had in 2024. On the network side, EBITDA is declining 91 million, but this is mostly due to the absence of asset rotation this year, compared to the 71 million, or the capital gains from the asset rotation, compared to the 71 million that we booked in the nine months, 24. And also the loss of EBITDA from the transmission lots that were sold. which together, with the asset rotation gain, represent around the 102 million reduction versus last year. Additionally, this segment is also impacted by the Euro-Brazilian real depreciation. If we now move to slide six, the performance on the wind and solar segment, recurring underlying EBITDA grew 21% or 23% when excluding FX impacts. It's a robust growth. It reflects a significant step up in generation. following our record capacity additions last year. Although this has been negatively impacted by worst renewable resources in Q3, mostly North America, you may have seen that it was one of the worst quarters in 20 or more years, I think since 1989. So I won't spend too much time here. We'll provide a bit more color on EDPR's performance in the next section. So let me move now to slide seven and dive into the hydro activity in Iberia. So hydro inflows, 38% above the long-term average, higher than the 33% level that we saw last year. However, despite this increase, the hydro generation was lower year on year since the rainfall was primarily used to reestablish reservoir levels, and this was mostly in Q1, as you can see by the chart on the right-hand side. So even if we lowered generation year on year, hydro output remained above average, and the uncontracted volumes were sold at higher prices compared to 2024, with the Iberian pool price reaching 65 euros per megawatt hour versus 52 euros per megawatt hour in the nine months of 2024. The contracted volumes were sold at a lower price of 70 euros per megawatt hour this year compared to the 90 euros per megawatt hour in the nine months last year. Regarding the outlook for the remaining part of the year, October was dry with the hydrological index 36 below average. Meantime has been starting to rain. In any case, we see reservoir levels still above average, but obviously decreasing. So I would say that we can expect a weaker fourth quarter as compared to previously expectations and to Q3. If we now move to slide eight, to our hydro clients and energy management segment, as a whole EBITDA stood at 1.1 or 1.14 million euros. That represents a fall of 15% versus last year, as expected. It's a mix of different dynamics. So Iberia in the nine months, 24, were impacted by extraordinary gas sourcing costs. In one hand, hydro generation volumes net of pumping were 7.2 terawatt hours versus the 8 terawatt hours last year. So that's a 10% drop. While on the other hand, pumping generation increased by 28%. And CCGT's generation increased by more than 3 terawatt hours as requested by the system operators both from Portugal and Spain. I'd also highlight that in line with the trend that we saw in the second quarter, in the nine months, we had an increase in flexibility revenues from generation, but also some costs on the supply side, which we expect to persist in the fourth quarter 2025. Finally, in Brazil, EBITDA declined from 141 million to 106 million, but this is primarily due to FX impacts. So overall, despite the decline in the headline figures, Following a very strong 2024, the segment continues very solid. Now moving to slide nine on the networks. Recurring EBITDA reached 1.18 billion euros in the nine months this year. That represents a 7%, minus 7% year-on-year. This decline is primarily explained by the absence of asset rotation gains in 2025, as I introduced before. which amounted to 71 million in the nine month last year. But there's also some other moving pieces here. So let me break this down probably in three main building blocks. So the first one is a 33 million increase of EBITDA in Iberia following inflation update in Portugal and RAB growth in Iberia, in Spain. Flat EBITDA in Brazil in Real, driven by the improvement in operations being mitigated by the loss of EBITDA from transmission lines that were sold. And actually, the Brazilian reality valuation in no capital gains, and the segment is minus 53 million versus last year. So all in all, EBITDA for electricity networks, excluding asset rotation gains in forex, increased 3%, showing the resilience that is expected from this segment. If we now move to slide 10, net debt stood at 17.3 billion from 15.6 at year end 2024. This is obviously reflecting the execution of the investment plan, the annual payment of dividends, and the fact that we will have proceeds from asset rotation and tax equity expected to be mostly concentrated in the last quarter. So key drivers for the change in net debt include 2.1 billion organic cash flow, reflecting an improved working capital performance, with organic cash flow increasing 0.5 billion year-on-year from 1.6 billion in the nine months last year, 0.8 billion of dividend annual payment executed in May, 2.4 billion of net cash investments, including 3.1 billion of cash capex, including 0.5 billion related to working capital changes with PP&E suppliers. And this is offset by 0.4 billion of asset rotation proceeds and 0.3 billion of tax equity proceeds. And then we have about 0.8 billion from regulatory receivables and others. For the year end, we expect to reach the 16 billion net debt considering the two billion asset rotation proceeds in total expected for the year, and the one billion tax equity proceeds in total expected for the year. And that, as I said before, we are expecting that to come, so the remaining piece is in Q4. And with this, we will be reaching a 19% FFO net debt ratio, and therefore meeting our triple B goal in terms of funding of net debt ratios. Now, on slide 11, recurring net profit, $974 million. So that's a 5% increase year on year. This is coming on the back of a lower EBITDA, as I explained before, 139 million, lower than last year. Combination of lower asset rotation gains and the decreased results from the integrated segment in Iberia. Higher DNA and provisions, increasing 107 million, resulting from our investment path. And the increased net financial costs, driven by higher cost of debt, 4.5% last year and this year 4.9%. And this is primarily due to the higher cost of debt in Brazil than real, which is, you know, it's floating. And also the average, the higher average nominal debt. So we also have some lower income taxes, lower non-controlling interest. And basically this, you know, takes us to the net profit. So highlighting again that excluding asset rotation gains, the underlying performance on the net profit shows a 5% increase versus last year. So definitely a very solid operational performance. In reported terms, net profit reached 952 million, including the negative impact of around 22 million, mostly related to some EDPR impacts. So I will now turn to EDPR's performance for the first nine months of 2025. So on slide 14, you can see that EDPR delivered a strong set of results. I mean, this is marked by robust underlying EBITDA and net profit, continued capacity delivery, solid progress on the asset rotation plan throughout 2025. Operationally, EDPR reached 19.8 gigawatts of installed capacity, with generation up 14% despite this lower renewable resource that we experienced in Q3. The average selling price declined 9% year-on-year to an average of 54 euros per megawatt-hour, reflecting the changes in the generation mix, lower average prices in Europe, mainly from hedges normalization and the lower feeding tariff prices in Portugal. Recurring EBITDA reached 1.4 billion, that's up 9% year-on-year, with underlying EBITDA growing by 21%. I think it's important really to note that asset rotation gains were 59 million this period compared to 179 million in the same period last year, because this really shows the strength of the underlying business performance. Recovery net profit came at 189 million, or if we exclude the asset rotation gains, 153 million. So that's definitely a very important increase, 111 million versus nine months, 2024. Overall, these results underscore EDPR's ability to combine the growth, efficiency, and value creation, reinforcing our confidence in the outlook for the remaining of the year. So now let's go a bit deeper into EDPR's results. So if you focus on EBITDA, slide 15, this was driven by $1.6 billion from electricity sales, $308 million of tax equity revenues from North America. That's a 20% increase in generation and new capacity additions. Or on the back of this, $59 million of capital gain from asset rotations that we closed in Spain and France and Belgium, with the remaining gains to be concentrated in the fourth quarter. And then we have less, the impact of 574 million from core OPEX, which is mostly in line with last year's. And I would highlight here the strong efforts in constant efficiency improvement that we have been implementing across the company. And you also can see that on the ratios on the OPEX per megawatt that have been really under control. And I think they're probably one of the best in class in the sector. $22 million from other net costs that improved around $80 million on the back of no material impacts this year. As you may remember, last year we had some headwinds in Colombia, also Romania. This year we don't. And therefore, that's a significant improvement impacting our APTA. So these results highlight improvement in the underlying business as a whole from an operational perspective, as well as this enhanced efficiency that we've been deploying. So now turning to slide 16. I'd like to look at EVPR's cash flow evolution for the first nine months of this year. So organic cash flow reached 458 million, representing a 0.2 billion increase year on year, reflecting a solid performance of our operating portfolio, as well as the changes in working capital, distributions to minority interests, and the tax equity partnerships. I'd like just to note that organic cash flow excludes tax equity cash proceeds, which are typically received at the project completion and have an immediate positive impact on net debt. First nine months of this year, we received $278 million and remain on track to reach $1 billion for the full year. As of September, net debt stood at 9.2 billion. It's up 0.9 billion since December last year. The increase is primarily driven by the 1.6 billion in net expansion investments, obviously supporting the portfolio growth. And this is partly offset by the asset rotation proceeds from the transactions, as I mentioned, closed in Spain. France, Belgium, and also U.S. Looking ahead, we do expect net debt to converge to around $8 billion by year-end, supported by the timing of the asset rotation and tax equity proceeds. As I mentioned, this will be concentrated now until the end of December. Also highlighting that already in October, we closed a transaction for a 1.6 gigawatt portfolio in the U.S., Again, just to emphasize, it's a 49% sale, straight equity, no structure. And I think it came in the context, as you know, of quite a lot of uncertainty throughout 2025. So definitely a great transaction executed on top of the one that we have been executing in Europe. And as you know, we have already signed some European transactions that we are expecting to close before the end of the year. Now moving to slide 17. So as previously highlighted, EDPR's recurring underlying EBITDA rose by $231 million. Again, on the back of the solid performance on the operational side. Depreciations and amortization increase, obviously on the back of the new capacity additions. We did have some one-off impact from accelerated depreciation of repowering wind farm in the U.S., Financial results increase on the back of higher nominal financial debt, lower capitalized financial expenses, partly offset by some effects in derivatives. Contribution to minorities improved year on year, following the completion of the buyback of CDG minorities in late 2024. So at the net profit level, we recognize around 40 million of one-off impacts this quarter, and this is mainly from impairments in Europe related to non-core countries. So all in all, recurring net profit reached 189 million, excluding capital gains. This represents a four-fold increase versus last year. Again, just underscores the strength of EDPR's underlying performance. Summary, EDPR's performance during nine months, I think it's a testament to the ability to execute, to adapt, deliver sustainable growth. Miguel will be presenting the strategy for the next few years, but I think that we are definitely on good track in terms of how we are delivering the results this year. So I would hand it over to you, Miguel, for final remarks. Thank you.

Thank you, Rui. So just to wrap up and moving on to slide 18, Just to reinforce the guidance, so we're expecting a recurring EBITDA for 2025 of around 4.9 billion, and that's supported by strong performance across all of the business segments, and you can see that already at the nine months numbers. Breaking this down by segment, so the integrated generation supply should deliver about 1.4 billion of EBITDA, of which 1.1 billion was already recorded in the first nine months. Wind and solar, including EDPR, expected to contribute roughly 1.9 billion, including 0.1 billion of asset rotation gains, and having the 2 gigawatts capacity additions on time and on budget. And electricity networks, forecasted at around 1.5 billion, with the distribution performance mitigating the transmission asset deconsolidation and the Brazilian real devaluation. Recurring net profit, approximately 1.2 billion, impacted mostly by a higher cost of debt on the Brazilian real debt, an average higher debt, since the asset rotation proceeds and the tax equity proceeds are expected to be received more towards the end of the year. Net debt expected to stand near 16 billion euros, so assuming about 2 billion in asset rotation proceeds and about 1 billion in tax equity proceeds for the year. All in all, guidance reflecting resilience. It's reflecting the strength of our integrated and diversified portfolios, as Rui has also mentioned. And obviously, we'll be providing further color on the outlook for the years ahead in the next presentation, the CMD. But for now, I'll pass it back to Miguel to see if there are any questions. So we can take those mostly concentrated on the nine-month numbers. Thanks.

Thank you. So we have here some written questions. And the first one from Pedro Alves, CaixaBank BPA, regarding the capital gain at GDPR in the third quarter, if it relates only with the sale of the 121 megawatts wind portfolio in France and Belgium, and if we can clarify the good capital gain per megawatt implicit in the transaction.

Thank you, Pedro. Yes, so in the third quarter, the capital gain is mostly related to the French and Belgian portfolio, and it's around 0.4 million euros per megawatt. So the multiple was great. It was an EV per megawatt of around 1.6 million per megawatt, and that implies around 28 or so percent capital gains on invested capital. So yes, it was a great deal. I think this just reinforces that We continue to see strong demand for these portfolios. We continue to see great multiples for these portfolios. And in Europe, we've been consecutively able to deliver on good numbers here. It was a good operating portfolio. It was around 11 wind projects in France and one wind project in Belgium, all with COD around 2020. I mean, in this case, the buyer is a financial investor. And as I said, we continue to see strong interest for our assets at attractive implicit yields.

We have also a question about what impact we have in our nine months, 25 accounts, regarding the extra costs with the ancillary services in Iberia related with the increase of these costs during this year, namely supported on the supply side.

So ancillary services, as you know, post-blackout was a big increase, but there had already been a structural increase before that. And I'll talk a little bit about that later in the CMD. I mean, the value is estimated at around 150 million. But just bear in mind that the revenues on the generation side have to then be passed on to customers. And in some cases, those contracts are already fixed. So on a net basis, we continue to benefit from our FlexGen portfolio, but obviously partially offset by sort of then the pass-through to the customers just happening over the next couple of years. But we can give you more detail on that also when we talk in the CMD.

So we have also a question regarding the guidance for 2025. So we see now the BTA on the 4.9, which is at the top of the previous range provided, net income at 1.2. So if we can comment on this evolution for the guidance for 2025.

So what I'd comment here on the guidance is, listen, we're very confident on delivering the guidance for all the different business segments, including the integrated in Iberia. I mean, we did have a weaker October, and that's also incorporated. But we are also seeing, so that's sort of at the EBITDA level. There's no doubt we're sort of at the top end of the range. But we are seeing slightly higher financial costs, especially in Brazil, and also a tax rate expected to be around 25%, 26% by year end. And therefore, the net income coming in still within the range, but close to the 1.2 billion end of the range.

We have also a question regarding our current exposure regarding offshore in U.S. and if we have any comments regarding the latest news regarding permitting in U.S.

So there was some news that came out, I think it was an article, that's probably what you're referring to, an article that came out in the New York Times or something like that. around offshore in the U.S. and around the permitting. As you know, offshore in the U.S. is pretty much in hibernation mode at the moment, and sort of it's been much more about just riding out this phase. We have an exposure, and we've said this multiple times, we have a total exposure at the EDPR level of around €300 million. It's about €200 million at the EDP level. We're already partially impaired that at the end of last year, assuming that we were going to delay the project four years. So we're keeping this exposure contained and sort of at a minimum. And we're just focused on building the legal case to defend the project permits and the value, and also just then focusing on what could be the next steps. Essentially, we're at the same stage as many other of our peers are in relation to offshore in the US. I think the key issue here is what is the value at stake? And as many of you know, it's around the $300 million at the GDPR level which has already been partially impaired.

We have also a question in terms of how we are evolving in terms of hedging for 2026, where we are in terms of contracting, in terms of hedging volume and prices in Iberia.

So for hedging, as you know, we typically hedge 12 to 18 months ahead. So in this case, for 2026, we're already around 85% hedged. at a price that's north of 64 euros per megawatt hour. This is something that we do sort of on a rolling basis. But for 2026, it's pretty much all set. I would say we normally don't, we wouldn't hedge more than this, just because of, just to make sure from a risk perspective, we don't become over-hedged. So 85 is, you know, I'd consider to be already the level of hedging that we want for 2026, and that's at the 64, or north of 64, actually, in this case.

We have a last question just in terms of execution of 2025. How do we see our delivery in terms of the target 2 gigawatts in EDPR in 2025?

So we are on track, on time, even slightly under budget in some of the projects, but overall very much within the budget for the 2025 project. And so I'd say that it's a good year from an execution point of view. There's been no issues around supply chain, everything sort of is on site, and we're just wrapping up sort of, and we'll be wrapping up sort of by the end of the year. So I'd say everything on time, on budget, and on track.

So we have no more questions. Miguel, just if you want to, just closing remarks.

I'd say, listen, it was a good set of, it's been a good year, good three quarters, and I think we're well positioned to have a good full year. and looking forward to talking to you about the next couple of years at the CMD. So look forward to seeing you all then. Thanks.