Sandvik AB (publ)

Hello, everyone, and a warm welcome to Sandvik's presentation of the fourth quarter results 2024. My name is Louise Tjeder, Head of Investor Relations here at Sandvik. And with me, of course, I have our CEO Stefan Widing and CFO Cecilia Felton. We will start this webcast with a presentation. Stefan and Cecilia will take you through the highlights of this quarter. And after that, we will move on to the Q&A session. With this, I hand over the word to you, Stefan.

Thank you, Louise. And also from my side, a warm welcome to the fourth quarter report of 2024. To summarize the quarter, we continue to see good momentum in the mining business. We also have a strong order intake growth in infrastructure, while a challenging industrial activity led to subdued demand, particularly in Europe and the automotive segment. Total order intake increased by 5%, and of that, organic growth was 4%. Revenues increased by 1% and organically by a positive zero. We have overall a stable financial performance in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA improved by 1%. This corresponds to a margin of 19.6% versus 19.5% in the previous year. A rolling 12 months, we are at 19.2% versus 20% a year ago. The savings from our restructuring programs are yielding good results in the quarter. Total savings of 419 million with a bridge effect of 324 million. Adjusted profit for the period 4.1 versus 4.0 last year and a strong free operating cash flow of 6.5 billion versus 5.5 last year. We also continue to execute on our strategic priorities, one of them being to grow in the surface mining business. And here we saw an important deal in Peru this quarter, which was for both rotary drill rigs and surface boom drills. It didn't quite make it to the threshold of a major order, but it was close and most importantly, a very strategic win in terms of penetrating the surface market in Peru. We also see a strong momentum in our screening business. I'll come back to that. And also, we are very happy to see that the recent acquisition we did of Shusho Anno, which is an important player in the local premium market in China, showed good growth in the quarter with high single-digit growth. This is, of course, still reported in the structure column, not organic, just to be clear on that. The innovation of the quarter we want to highlight is our upgraded large 800 series cone crusher with new automation features. This crusher enables us not only to crush higher volumes but more importantly to crush to finer particles. This is a key initiative to ensure that you can crush more and grind less. This is good not only in saving costs for our customers, it reduces also the energy consumption substantially. And this is one of our key strategic growth initiatives in the crushing division. Looking then at the year-over-year market development, if we start just with a geographical view, Europe minus 2, but weak cutting tool markets down around 10%. North America up 5%, a little bit better, but still declining on cutting tool size with a negative mid-single-digit performance. Asia, minus six. Here, China cutting tools organically was negative high single digits, while then Susuano grew high single digits in the structure column. The remaining markets are related to mining, and they are all growing double digits. We continue to show mining as stable at a high level. We see very strong momentum in the aftermarket business, as we have said. Also now good momentum, I would say, recovering a bit on the equipment side. We'll come back to more details there. General engineering, however, weak, driven in particular by Europe. Overall, general engineering is down high single digits. Europe is down low double digits. North America a bit better also here with mid single digit decline, while China is also better with just a slight decline in general engineering. Infrastructure, stable. The main change here, I would say, is that we now see early signs of an improved sentiment in North America, which we want to highlight. We also had some larger orders in the quarter, so overall a solid order intake, although on low compares in the infrastructure segment in the quarter. Automotive is the main weakness in the quarter, overall down low double digits, driven by Europe, down low double digits, especially then out of the key auto markets in Europe, especially Germany and Italy. North America doing a bit better down mid-single, China down double digits, but better if we include Sosoano overall. Aerospace continued strong momentum with improvements, however, still down slightly overall, driven by a weak performance in North America, which was down high, low double digits. But this was driven by the strike at Boeing. Production resumed in December, so it became more or less a lost quarter. We have good hopes for momentum to come back now in North America in 2025. In Europe, aerospace was positive, up mid-single digits, and also Asia was down, but in China it was up low single digits. The other segments also negative, down mid-single digits overall. Europe down mid-single, North America down high single, and Asia or China then down. also slightly down but Asia overall a bit more stable. So that summarizes the overall market view from an industrial point of view and mining. This then concludes into an order intake of about 31.5 billion, revenues 32.15%. Book-to-bill slightly below 100%, which is normal in this season. We are still encouraged by the order intake, which bodes positively going into this year. We can see here that we now have had positive organic order intake three quarters in a row, which of course is positive as we enter the new year. Revenue has been basically flattish now for the full year. So here we have more work to do to improve the sales. EBITDA, positive 1%, as we said, margin 19.6, slight improvement versus prior year, in absolute terms about 6.3 billion. Good performance here, lower volumes were offset by good price realisation, good cost control and execution of our structure savings. We also in this have managed to offset both currency dilution and slight dilution from our acquisitions. And as I said, rolling 12 months 19.2. Going into the business areas, mining and rock solutions, solid demand, positive momentum in the aftermarket with double digit growth. Equipment orders were stable year on year, but since we did not book any major orders, if we exclude major orders, equipment orders were up 26% and the business area in total was up 15%. We should say that, of course, the definition of a major order is arbitrary at 200 million. In this quarter, we had maybe more orders coming in just below that, but we still believe this shows a good underlying momentum and a little bit of a catch-up from a slightly weaker Q3. Some more positive sentiment, I would say, in the market now. Total order intake increased by 5%, of which organic was 6%. Then, of course, very strong margin, 21.5% up from 20.6%. Here we have, of course, volume growth, but then on top of that, good pricing offsetting inflation and then positive impact from the savings. Here we had a neutral impact from exchange rates. We have taken some important orders in the quarter, even though they were not classified as major. I already mentioned the one in Peru. We also have an important order in Chile, which is overall a major order, but we have only booked 60 million in the quarter. But it's an automation order and load and haul order that's been very important to catch. We also completed the acquisition of universal field robots which as you know will strengthen our automation offering further. Rock processing, here we had good underlying demand in mining which remained stable as well and then as we said an improved sentiment in infrastructure in particular than in the US. We also have seen inventory levels coming down a bit in Europe, but that has not translated to improved business climate as of now. Total order intake increased by 22%, and of that organic was also 22%, so strong performance. We had some major orders, but that we also had last year, so also including major orders, we increased by 23%. But overall, we should say it was a low compare. So that is part of the reason for the high order growth in the quarter. Just the moderate expectations a little bit going forward. Margin came in on the weaker side with 14.6% versus 15.7%. Here we do see some price pressure from infrastructure, especially with dealers, due to the fact that the market is still tough, even though we see some improved sentiment. We also had an inventory obsolescence provision that impacted the margins negatively in the quarter. Savings are coming through from savings initiatives here as well, but then also here a slightly negative impact from currency of 30 basis points. I already mentioned the large crusher. We actually saw a doubling of the order intake for this product category in the year, which is encouraging. And also very good performance from our screening business. The majority of this comes from the acquisition of Schenck that we did two years ago. During this period, they have delivered strong growth, strong margins, and also good synergy realizations with our crushing division. So overall, very strong performance from this new screening solutions division, which we are very happy to see in rock processing. Manufacturing and machining solutions, finally, as we said, weaker demand in cutting tools, particularly driven by Europe and automotive. We had solid order intake in the powder business at solid high double digits. Also this partly driven by weak comps. And I also mentioned that the local premium segment in China grew high single digits, which is encouraging. Software demand was mixed. It was solid in the US, but we were negatively impacted, especially by automotive in Europe, where the demand has been muted. Total order intake still grew by 1%, but organic decline was 3%. If we look at the beginning of this year, we see a stable demand situation if we take into account normal seasonality. Margin came in at 19.4 versus 20.2. I think we should highlight here that organically they fully offset the volume decline. So good price realisation, strong cost control and execution of the restructuring initiatives fully offset the volume decline in Q4. Then we had a negative impact from currency and a dilution from structure of 40 basis points and that overall then took down the margin. This delusion from structure, a material part of that is from the fact that we have, together with Susano, invested in a new greenfield in such factory in China that was brought online beginning of the quarter, but it still just began to ramp up. So right now we have all the costs, but very little revenue coming out of that factory. But it's an important growth initiative for us in China, both from a growth perspective and from a regionalization perspective. And that will take some quarters for that to ramp up. Then we also completed the acquisition of a CAM reseller for Mastercam in the quarter. So with that, I'll come back for conclusions and Q&A. But now I hand over to Cecilia.

Thank you, Stefan. All right. So let's take a closer look at the numbers then together. And as usual, we start with the growth bridge here on the right hand side. And there you can see that organically orders increased by 4% while revenues were flat. Structure contributed with 2% on order intake and 1% on revenue whilst currency was neutral. And that brought total order intake growth to 5% and total revenue growth to 1%. As Stefan mentioned, both adjusted EBITDA and the margin improved slightly year over year, so very pleased to see that. Net financial items came down year over year, mainly driven by a lower interest net. Tax rate, excluding items affecting comparability and also on a normalized basis, was 24%, so right in the middle of our guided range. Networking capital on a 12-month rolling basis was 29.9%. And we had a very strong cash flow in the quarter, 6.5 billion, corresponding to a cash conversion of 109%. Returns at 13.4% and 14.8% excluding PPA. And adjusted EPS improved slightly, as you can see in the table, to 3.25 sec. If we then continue with the EBITDA bridge and starting with the organic column, here you can see that revenues improved or grew by 49 million and EBITDA by 115 million. And that gives a very high positive leverage of above 200%, but as you can see, calculated on very small numbers here. Nevertheless, an accretion to the margin of 0.3 percentage points, whilst currency and structure were slightly dilutive. And that brings us from a margin of 19.5% last year to 19.6% this year. Both of our restructuring programs are being delivered according to plan. As you can see here now for the 22 program, we have realized 90% of the annualized run rate savings by the end of the year. And for the 24 program, we are now at 78%. If we then continue down in the P&L, looking at the finance net, you can see it came down from 630 million last year to 364 million this year. And this is mainly driven by a lower interest net. And that's the result of both lower borrowed volumes. And also you can see here at the bottom of the table, a lower yield cost. Tax rate on a reported basis was 20.1%. But then, as I said, excluding items affecting comparability and also on a normalized basis, it was 24%. So right in the middle of the guided range. If we then continue with the balance sheet, you can see here in the graph on the left-hand side that 12 months rolling net working capital came in at 20.9%. If you look at the dotted line, though, you can see that in the quarter, relative net working capital was 28.4%, and this is 0.9 percentage points lower than last year. Then if you look at the bars, you can see the development throughout the year. It looks fairly flat. However, in terms of volume, we worked very hard with improving our inventory levels and they came down by 1.2 billion. But that's more than offset by a negative currency impact and also some structure. Cash flow, as I said, very strong in the quarter, 6.5 billion, with a cash conversion of 109%. And on a 12-month rolling basis, it was 95%. And then looking at the year-over-year development, you can see that earnings adjusted for known cash improved. CapEx was a little bit lower, and networking capital was a little bit better. Then financial net debt came down sequentially to 32 billion, driven by the positive cash flow. And both the pension liability and capitalized leases were largely unchanged. Sorry. And this brought net debt down to 41 billion and financial net debt to EBITDA to 1.2 billion. Then if you look at outcome versus guidance, currency came in at 71 million, capex for the year 4.8, normalized tax rate 24%, and the interest net 1.5. Looking ahead then at Q1 and the full year for 2025, the estimated currency effect is 300 million for the first quarter. CapEx guidance for 2025 is around 5 billion, whilst the interest net we expect to come down to 0.8 billion. And the tax rate, we've left the guidance unchanged at 23 to 25%. And with that, I will hand over to you, Stefan.

Thank you. Let's do the conclusion. Yeah, I think we ended the year with a very good fourth quarter, ended on a positive note with good organic order intake, stable revenues and improved profitability. If you look at the full year, we also had a stable top line with revenues decreasing by 1% and a slightly positive order intake. Margin were 19.2, which we believe, given the volume declines, is on a resilient level, and that will also now be supported further by the execution that we have had on our restructuring initiatives. Free operating cash flow was in 2024 strong at 21.2 billion, cash conversion of 95%, and that took down then our financial letter to EBITDA to 1.2, which is well within our target. And we continue to build Sandvik stronger. We can see that we have strengthened our resilience with an increased share of recurring revenues and value based solutions, which is why I think that we can show a much more stable top line in this downturn. We also did good progress towards our targets on the digital side. In 2024, we ended with software and digital revenues above 5 billion. We are on track to achieve our target for 2025 of almost or around 5% of turnover being software and digital, which of course is a massive transformation for a company the size of Sandvik. I also mentioned the positive investment we are doing now to have local production capacity for inserts in China, which we think will help our market position in China quite significantly going forward. We have focused on maintaining our leading positions through these times and execute on our strategic priorities. Stringent cost control and good price execution puts us in a very good position to build from as the market improves going forward. Thank you. Let's go into the Q&A.

Indeed. Thank you, Stefan and Cecilia. It's time for the Q&A session. So I hand over the word to the operator to open up for the first question. Please.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. You'll hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the queue, you will press star followed by two. Participants are requested to only use handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question, may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of James Moore from Redbird Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Morning, everybody, and thanks for the time. I've got three, if I could. Stefan, I wondered if we could start with the daily trends in China towards the end of the year. If you exclude your good local acquisition, could you talk about whether you're seeing any signs of positive inflection? Should we go one at a time?

I cannot say that we saw any specific trends within the quarter in China in that regard. Not anything that I have picked up at least.

Okay, thanks. And you mentioned software mix. I wondered if you could step back and just give us an update on the software business for the whole of last year and any flavor on how the margin progressed compared to the year before. and whether you feel you're on track for the target on the profitability.

Yes, absolutely. And I mean, the number we gave here over five billion is, of course, for the total group. And if we start on the mining side, it's been very solid growth. The software grew double digits, good profitability, even though they have actually gone through a transition from perpetual license to SaaS, which tends to have a little bit, give a bit of a trough on the financials. they have executed that really well and now gone to full SAS model and that's something we will benefit from now going forward. On the manufacturing side the market overall for the full year has grown or I say Our business has grown around mid-single digits. We believe, looking at peer reports up until including Q3, that we have been slightly outgrowing the market. Up until including Q3, we had high single-digit growth. Now we saw a bit of a weakness in Q4, as I said, driven in particular by automotive. We can see the software companies exposed to automotive in Europe has a tougher time. Margin-wise, software in manufacturing is accretive to SMM. So I would say that's in a solid place right now. We are, of course, driving towards the target we have communicated to be at 22% by the end of this year.

Well, that's great. And just lastly, if I could, on SRP, it looks like your orders in North America grew a massive 40%. I mean, the business has some lumpiness there. How sustainable is that? And when we look at Trump's announcement yesterday, where I think there was some stopping of EVs and renewables, it looks as if sort of core infrastructure, bridges and the like, roads and the like, is very much going to continue. Do you think there's been a kind of pause and a wait and see for presidential decision making that can now unlock that market?

Yeah, the strong order growth in the US is, to be fair, partly driven by weak compares. So we should put that in perspective. I think Q4 last year was really an all-time low and then it's been improving a bit. But I think now it was much more solid this quarter. But it gives a very big positive number in the compare. But as we say, it's also driven by what we see early signs of an improved sentiment. I cannot say whether that's sort of Trump driven or not. We believe at least it's election driven, meaning maybe some uncertainties has gone away. I don't know. But we did see a sentiment shift post the elections in a more positive direction. Then if it will continue I guess depends on whatever other announcements might come. But so far so good is maybe the conclusion.

Thanks very much. The next question comes from the line of Berengling Claes from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hi Stefan, Cecilia, Louise, Claes. I have three questions please. The first one is on powder. Fourth quarter is typically a weak quarter for the powder business, but it's now growing high double digits. And I was just wondering, Stefan, powder growing like this in a weak quarter, and with that being sort of an early indicator of cutting tool demand, sounds quite positive when we look ahead into the first half. Obviously, you're saying that cutting tool demand for the first two weeks were stable, but I'm just curious if you agree that this big increase in powder in a typically weak quarter is a positive sign, sort of a green shoot, if you like. I'll start here.

Yeah, we have been debating that actually. I think our conclusion is there is also here a weak comp. But as you say, that's typically the case in Q4. Maybe also some timing. We are hesitant to state that it is early lead. Powder is an early indicator, but we are hesitant yet to say that this quarter is proof that it is an you know it's a turnaround uh indication of a turnaround i think we would like to see q1 as well to be able to make that statement more firmly understood um interesting nevertheless my second one is on um smm and the cutting tool segment general general engineering in europe still down um

Low double-digit like last quarter. Auto also down low double-digit. That's despite better production data. I think S&P and the likes revised up the production number several times through the quarter. Was there anything special going on there in terms of supply chain, year-end destocking, et cetera, in automotive, Stefan?

Not something to call out, but this is a common theme. We usually have this discussion when the momentum in automotive is shifting. I mean, it's not that we see it... I mean, there is a time lag. So if there is an improved production level, it usually takes at least... I mean, we are usually about a quarter off what we have seen in history, so to say. And of course... Because there might be also some inventory levels in the supply chain and so on. So there is no specific dynamics I would call out other than that it's not a one-for-one in real time between the ultimate production levels and the production of the components, which is what we are sort of supplying into.

Yeah, no, that's clear. My final one is on mining. The sentiment seems to have improved towards the end of the quarter. Was that both in equipment and in the aftermarket? And did you also see it in deliveries, that miners that previously sort of hesitated on projects are coming back a bit? There is obviously typically a better momentum at year-end on execution of the backlog, sort of a seasonal effect. I'm trying to understand if this was an underlying improvement. Yeah.

Yeah, if we start with aftermarket, it's more that it's continued with very strong momentum. I think we closed the full year basically with double digit growth. So that's very healthy to see driven by a bigger fleet based on historical growth, more advanced solutions and an aging fleet. Those are maybe the three main drivers for aftermarket growth being so strong. On the equipment side, yes, I mean, we said that we saw some hesitation in Q3. Not that business or that orders went away, but they were pushed out. So some slowness in the order. in the order flow i would say that was sort of released a bit in q4 so we felt that the momentum shifted in a positive direction which we also see then despite the big no major orders booked in this quarter we we still have a very strong sort of small medium-sized order intake um Then on the delivery side, as you say, it is always strong seasonally, but we should highlight that this was actually the strongest quarter ever from a revenue point of view for SMR. So it's a strong execution towards the end of the year after maybe some slowness on that side earlier in the year. So that was good to see.

Thank you.

Thank you.

The next question is from Edward Husey from UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi there. Thank you for taking my question. I guess just a quick follow-up on mining to begin with. I've just got two questions. The first one is, I mean, clearly a very strong performance given, you know, the performance in both SMR and SRP. But you have said that the underlying market development is flat. So I'm just wondering how you can, I mean, does this mean that you're taking market share or how should we think about your strong performance relative to markets?

Yeah, I think we have said for a while that it's stable at high levels. And that statement has incorporated still a few slightly weaker quarters a couple of times. And now maybe it also incorporates a slightly stronger quarter. It's not... I mean, for us to put that arrow up, we feel that should be an even stronger momentum shift for us to really state that now we feel we're going to take this to the next level, so to say. So that's why we may be a bit hesitant to not shift the wording here from stable. But slightly more positive, that's what we're saying.

Okay, thank you for the color. And then just a second question on SMM margins. So if I remove the quarterly savings achieved in SMM, I calculate that it was roughly an 80% organic drop through on the organic revenue growth. So I think the comment you gave was that pricing and pricing offset volume declines. Could you just talk me through why it is then that you've had an 80% organic drop through?

For the SMM margin, when we look at the organic development, of course we have the negative volume reduction. Price versus inflation was slightly accretive. This is more timing when we do price increases and when we see... inflation sort of pressure come through. And then we had the savings programs. In terms of organic leverage on SMM, it was minus 22% in the quarter. And then we have the negative impact from currency and structure.

Of course, the drop-through would be more negative if you take out the savings programs. That's a given. That's why we do the savings programs. We have to do that in the current market dynamics.

Okay, thank you.

The next question comes from Harlow Michael from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Oh, hello. Thank you for the presentation and thank you for taking questions. Just one on the market for electrified mining equipment. If you could comment on how things are evolving, both in terms of your offering, what competitors are doing and what miners are ready to spend on electrified mining equipment, that would be great. Thank you.

Yeah, I would say 2024 has been a year of, let's say, reflection in terms of electrified mining equipment. Interest is still very high. A lot of conversations, smaller repeat orders being placed. But we haven't seen, as we did in both 22 and 23, big fleet orders for BEVs. We had a couple of big fleet orders prior to that. Those orders are now being delivered. So in Q4, for example, we had record high revenues from BEVs. Around 10% of load and hold sales were BEVs. But that's on the back of strong order intake in prior years. Order intake this year has more been in the mid single digits. So it clearly shows a more muted demand this year. We feel that the industry is a little bit in wait and see when it comes to placing these bigger orders to see how the big fleets now being deployed are going to perform. And when that is proven, we think there is a bigger chance that we're not only going to see the early adopters going here, but also sort of more followers will go into electrification. The trend is there. There is still a momentum, but a little bit of a pause in terms of the bigger fleet deployments this year.

Thank you. That was very helpful. Can I ask a follow-up on the M&A strategy? What are the priorities? If you could update us, that would be great.

Yeah, I mean, the priorities overall hasn't changed, but in rock processing, if you start there, we're still interested in pursuing acquisitions that will contribute to building out our overall you know, solution in the comminution step. So niche products in crushing, in screening, etc. On the cutting tool side, it's to continue the journey towards round tools. I think now we are with Susano in place very close to be able to claim a number one position in round tools. Not quite there yet, but very close. So that's going to be a continued priority. That also includes growth segments like medical, aerospace and the like. Geographical sort of expansion outside of Europe, as we have seen with acquisitions in the US, India and China recently or lately. And then on the digital side, we feel that we have very much built the platform we need on the manufacturing side. We're going to continue like we did now with resellers and bolt-on, smaller bolt-ons, but it's going to be more of a focus towards now using this platform for organic growth as well. So that's roughly the priorities going forward.

Thank you. That was very helpful. The next question comes from the line of Constant Daniano from Waldman & Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. It's Daniela from Goldman. Just two questions from my side. I left them also one at a time. The first one on pricing across actually the various divisions, if you can give us a little bit of color of what you expected this year, especially on SRP where you're talking about sort of the better sentiment on infra has that filter through better pricing on the orders and then what you're planning to do on SMM and SMR this year.

Yeah, I can start. Yes, so when it comes to pricing, we've successfully managed to mitigate inflation over the last couple of years here when we've had a higher inflationary pressure. And that's, of course, also our ambition going forward. And as you said, we've seen some increased pressure in infrastructure, especially on where parts, where also stock levels have increased. have been a little bit higher, also not only for us, but also our competitors. But our ambition is to continue, of course, to work with mitigating inflation with price, also for the infrastructure segment.

Okay, thank you. And then just regarding the China investment you're doing in inserts, if you can talk through a little bit like the motivation of the timing right now, was it sort of a view and market perspective?

acceleration was it because you were importing inserts into china was the competitive landscape change can can you talk through a little bit of sort of the timing there for sure yeah i mean if we go back we have throughout the years historically always imported our inserts into china so all our premium divisions have imported inserts and sold them in the local market We have been successful in premium in China, and that's been a good business. The problem has been that the growth in the Chinese market has been in a segment that we call local premium, so slightly above the mid-market, but below what we can call international premium. And we have had no position there at all. That requires, for example, local production. With the acquisition of Shoshano, which is primarily a round tools company, they had already initiated plans because they also had a smaller in-search business to invest in a greenfield, quite ambitious production capacity in China. And as we now have done the acquisition, we have supported them in that with knowledge and know-how to make sure that we can build a state-of-the-art local premium factory in China. This will give us ample capacity to grow our business in China in the local premium segment. And of course, it also makes us less dependent on importing inserts into China, even though we will still have to continue importing the very premium ones, which we will not produce locally. But this is a key growth initiative for us to not only stop losing market share in China, but we actually believe when this is fully up, we should be able to start gaining market share in China. That's our ambition, at least.

Actually, a follow up on this. Was Suzhou Hano a number one in China and were they export? Are there any Chinese round tool relevant exporters?

They are in the top five in China. Not the leading one. The leading one is a state-owned company. But of the top five, there were two that are privately owned, and Shoshone were one of them that we now acquired. But they have a very solid position. I mean, the numbers you can see in the press release when we completed the acquisition. They have very little exports outside of China. It's very much in China for China. Of course, there is also some when they have followed some of their Chinese customers abroad, but they have very much focus on China, and that will continue.

Got it. Thank you very much.

Thank you. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Wilson Andrew from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two. I'll ask them together because they're quick. Just to refer to Daniela's question on the investment in China, the impact that we saw come through the structure line as a result, would we expect that to, I guess, repeat for a number of quarters? And apologies if I've kind of got the timelines mixed up. Would we expect a similar headwind in the coming quarters? And secondly, just on the Americas, specifically around cutting tools, I imagine some of the reason it was down in the period was as a result of Aero being down as a result of the strikes. But can you talk about the underlying development and also if you saw an improvement as you went through the quarter in North America specifically? Thank you.

I can start on the margin development in structure for SMM. And as Stefan said, we invested in this new factory now, and we will slowly start to ramp up production, but we will see some headwind during the first half of 2025.

Yeah, until it starts to cover its costs. With cutting tools in the US, yes, of course. I mean, Boeing strike basically a lost quarter from that point of view. Aerospace down low double digits, while in other regions, Europe, China, it was positive. There is no underlying reason to assume that aerospace shouldn't be the same in the US now when... as they get started again. There might, of course, be a lag if they have had excessive inventory, if they produced into the strike, so to say, but that should normalize. So that should be positive. We have been, in general, otherwise, specifically asking the business, do you see any sort of post-election effect or pre-tariff buying or anything like that? We haven't seen anything in particular that we would highlight at this point. So other than that, I would say it's been fairly stable throughout the quarter. The research dynamic... Also around the working days in December, where mathematically we had more working days in December, but in practice, those were around Christmas. So in practice, we believe it did not have that positive impact. So that's also maybe something to take into account.

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Thanks. The next question comes from Kune Sebastian from RBC Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you for taking my question. I just have two brief ones. In SRP, you mentioned some obsolescence provisions that you had to take and that impacted the adjusted margin. I was wondering if you see risk that in Europe we will see more provisions in that regard, whether, you know, because you have high inventory levels still. And then on the tooling side, and apologies if I have to ask that question again, like the other analysts, I would like to have a bit more detail on the pricing development, because we had now several quarters of negative volume. And usually that does mean there's more competitive pressure in the market. So Can you assure us that you really can compensate for inflation going forward also here in the tooling side? Thank you.

On SRP, as you said, we had some negative impact from OSMI, also some higher legal costs impacting the margin negatively in this quarter. It's more of a one-off as we see it. We are continuously working also with companies normalizing the inventory levels also in rock processing. And part of the volume reduction that we see at group level is also driven by SRP. So here we will continue to focus. So I'm not saying it's not, I mean, I cannot guarantee that we will not have any other OSME provisions coming in 2025, but not a high risk as we see it.

I think we're quite well provided and it can also turn to the positive if we actually get more momentum in the business. But it's sort of a give and take. So I would say it's the average is probably quite neutral, I would say. Maybe on the pricing dynamic going forward, I can take that you asked about SMM in particular. As Cecilia said, our ambition and plans are to continue to offset inflation through pricing. We see no reason for why we should not be able to continue doing that. Cutting tools is and always has been a cyclical business, and we have always been able to offset price in upturns and downturns. I think here it comes, you know, it's a value-based model, very disciplined approach. And we are also price leaders as being market leaders. So we will do our part, so to say, to make sure that pricing is good in the market. So that's our ambition also going forward.

Understood.

Thank you very much. The next question comes from the line of Kim John from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. It's John from Deutsche. A couple of questions, if I may. Could you give us a bit of color on the outlook this year for the aftermarket in SMR? What kind of growth do you see in the space? Any change in order momentum, I suppose, or customer activities in major mineral categories?

Yeah, I mean, momentum has been very strong this year on the back of maybe slightly weaker momentum in 23. So I think we're back at the long-term trend line, which is high single-digit growth. And that we have had for a long time. And we see no reason for why that trend line should not be able to continue, given, again, that we're continuing to grow the fleet size. Right now, after some successful years in Surface, we have continued to build the Surface fleet, which is now also starting to come through on the aftermarket side. Automation solutions, more advanced machines ties the customer more to our parts and services. and then what is still a very old fleet in the historical perspective which is also driving rebuilds more more service more spare parts so yeah we see no reason today why the historical trend line should not be able to continue also going forward

Thanks, very helpful. Can you give us any color on cadence for equipment deliveries this year? Was 24 a bit of an anomaly or should we expect a similar pattern?

Yeah, thanks for asking. We see a normal year this year, I would say. Of course, Q1 is always seasonally weak. I want to emphasize that because Australia, for example, is on holiday in January and it's an important market for us. So Q1 seasonal week, but in line with normal historical patterns. Last year, we had maybe an even weaker Q1 than normal. That is our expectations in terms of the revenue profile.

That's fantastic. Last one, quick one. On SRP, when we look at America's order intake, is that more a function of restocking on the customer side? I know you have a weak comp there,

We have seen in some parts of our infrastructure business in the US, inventory levels have come down a bit and thus also now starting to reorder. And a year ago, they were sitting on high inventory levels, hence the weak comp. So yes, weak comp, but then driven by some restocking happening now in terms of order placing in Q4. This is not, I want to emphasize, these are early signs. It's not that we see a broad across-the-board recovery in infrastructure, but in some product categories and segments, we are seeing these signs, and that's had a positive impact then in the quarter.

Great. Thanks very much. The next question comes from the line of Koski Andreas from BNB Paribas. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much and good morning. I have a couple of follow-ups on China Cutting Tools. I think Stefan you said during your presentation that China Cutting Tools were down high single digit in the quarter while Susu Anno grew high single digit. What do you think explains the differences of the local players taking market share?

Yes, I mean, and that's the dynamic we have seen for the past, I don't know how far back I should go, but for a long time. I think all Western suppliers have gradually lost some market share in China recently. you know, for the past decade. And it's not been that we have, I mean, our business has grown in premium, but the main growth has been in this local premium segment. And the local premium segment, the players in China, they are also winning against local Chinese mid market as the market becomes more mature. So we have seen this segment as very important for us to get a foothold in to not only stop this trend but actually we think with the right execution we can turn it around into a positive because now we are the only non-Chinese with a foothold in the local premium market. And we see competitors like Japanese and South Korean mid-market players are being hurt by this dynamic. And we hope to be able to now turn this into being on the winning side. And Q4, I mean, this is a typical scenario. It's not an unexpected dynamic if we see how they have been growing in the past years versus us in China. We can also see, for example, they are growing PCD tools, which is auto-aluminium, which is EVs, in a way where we basically had no presence in China before. It's early days, but the early days are promising when it comes to turning this trend around.

Yeah, I think the H2 run rate for Susuano implies annual revenue of around 1.6 billion. And that can be compared to 1.2 billion in 2023. And it sounds like the current investment that you're doing in China will close to double the revenue capacity for Susuano. So it's fair to expect continued strong growth for this business. But at the moment, it operates at single-digit margins. What kind of margins do you think we should expect longer term for this business?

I would say we should expect mid-teens margins to begin with. That's where we want to be initially and from that position we would rather grow more than improve the margin further. But we have seen that we can make good margins in China as well when we have the right offering and the right volumes. There are also advanced, very advanced customers in China. But that's the starting point for us.

And then lastly, what would you say are the main technological differences between local premium in China and international premium? And are you going to export Suzhou to Europe and North America to follow Chinese companies when they expand their manufacturing footprint globally?

On the technology side, without going into materials and coating details, which I'm not really qualified to fully answer, but you could say that they are one to two generations behind in terms of product quality, which means that in most applications they are good enough for a cost-conscious buyer, but still, you know, And sufficiently high quality. You need the international premium still if you want to go into complex parts, complex materials in markets like aerospace and so on. But for a big part of the market, they are becoming good enough, which is why they are gaining market share. And there is also no reasons to go mid-market because they are still sort of good value for money. So our approach from a technology point of view here is to help Shoshano now to sort of have the best local premium offering, but not at the level of our own international premium, to still create a different change.

Yes.

We will initially have them focus on China because we think there is such an untapped potential. But of course, we will not stop them from following a Chinese customer internationally.

Understood.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

The next question comes from... Go on. Next question comes from the line of Sergej Skiflat from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. I'll start with the mining demand, maybe going through your key commodities. Gold is your single biggest commodity exposure, and profitability in the gold sector right now is the highest it has ever been. We also saw some promising CapEx forecasts for 2025. Is there any reason this rising OpEx and CapEx from gold companies will not benefit Sandvik in 2025?

No, no specific reasons. I mean, of course, the high commodity prices where gold is, you know, maybe at the top is a reason for why we continue to see in general positive momentum and could, of course, be a reason for why we see this also even more positive now in Q4. But as you say, I mean, we are market leaders in gold and it's a big part of our exposure and high gold prices are good for our business. That's no doubt.

It's very good. If I can ask about Hopper, where you have very sizable exposure as well, there is a good pipeline of larger brownfield and greenfield projects in Latin America. Is there any chance this pipeline will start converting into projects in 2025, or those main ones are not yet fully mature and this is a story of 2026 onwards, based on your customer conversations?

Very difficult to answer. I mean, these green fields, from our point of view, it's always uncertain until we are close to actual RFQs and so on. I know there is a number of green fields in, for example, Argentina, but they are not expected from our point of view to generate revenues in this year. It will take a while before they come online. So I think it's a difficult question to answer. The timing of this one that will lead to business for us.

All right. Makes sense. And my final one. A quick one. On the SRP margins, please. Very quick one, I promise. So if you look at inventory situation by division, the SRP is still standing out as very high inventory relative to historical levels, where the other are more normal. This process of normalizing this inventory, how quickly do you expect it to happen? And are there any margin risks related to this process, either from write-downs or underutilization or anything like that?

um here i mean as i said before also srp they have made progress during the year in bringing inventory levels down and also improving days in inventory then we have currency also going against us when we look at the reported networking capital numbers and that's the case for all of our business areas including rock processing For us, I mean, we will continue throughout 2025 on normalizing inventory levels in SRP. And we also have some more work to do also in our other business areas. In terms of margin risk, like we said before, we think this in Q4 was more of a one-off. It's not the start. We don't see any indications that this would be a start of a new trend or anything like that. I'm not saying that we could potentially have some obsolescence, but we could also have some upsides in 2025 if we manage to sell some of this inventory because it's not scrap, it's just provided for in the books as obsolete or slow moving.

All right. Thank you, Stefan, Cecilia, and also thanks to you for calling in and good questions. And with this, we end this webcast and wish you a good rest of the day. Thank you.