Nordnet AB (publ)

Okay, hello everyone, it's 10 o'clock so let's start. Welcome to the presentation of Nordnet's financial report for the third quarter of 2023. My name is Johan Tidestad and I'm the Chief Communications Officer at Nordnet and with me today I have our CEO Lars-Oke Norling and also our CFO Lennart Krän. Hello, guys. Good morning. We'll start off by presenting the results and then we'll have a Q&A session. All participants will be on mute during the presentation. And when we come to the Q&A part of this presentation, you have two alternatives to ask questions. You can click the raise hand button. And I will then unmute you and call your name. And you can also submit the question in writing through the Q&A button. Just write your question and I will read it out loud. And the presentation itself will be available on our corporate website after this session, NordnetAB.com. All right, then let's start the presentation. Lars Åke, please go ahead. Thank you, Johan.

You can go to the next page. So some key highlights for the third quarter, very strong financial performance overall with revenue growing 42% and profit 64%. And overall also good customer growth and positive net savings in spite of challenging markets. We have the uncertain macro environment and low volatility is an overhang on trading activity, which is still on the lower level. Net interest income more than doubled due to higher interest rates. We have good cost control with costs in line with guidance. And we also launched the Finnish endowment wrapper, which is an important step to become a one-stop shop for savings and investments in Finland. And overall, a very strong capital situation that provides optionality. And Leonard is going to talk more about that, the CFO. And we also initiated a strategic review of our unsecured lending business. This business is becoming... Smaller and smaller part of our overall business and it's also not naturally linked to our core business. And this was a product, it was a good product in a low rate environment that provided yield on a liquidity. But now we are in a different market with a high yield environment where we can find returns in other ways. And we're going to come back to the market when we're done with the strategic review and we look at the potential sale of the business or as an alternative that we limit the lending and reduce the portfolio over time. What's next? Overall, a very good quarter. Customer growth 9%, which is good in this market climate. Savings capital is also up from also because we had a bottom in the market last year, end of September, but also due to net savings. A number of trades down 4% due to very uncertain markets and overall low volatility in the markets, both in the Nordics and in the US. The revenues are up with 42%. We have a slight down on trading revenues, but considerable growth in net interest income. When it comes to expenses, we have good cost control and the cost growth is in line with the guidance of 7%. But if you look at underlying cost growth in fixed FX, we know that the Swedish krona has weakened considerably. That underlying growth is 5.5%, so 1.5% less. And still very good operating leverage in the business. And the profit is then increasing with 64% year on year. Go to next. Also, continued growth in customers and net savings in spite of this uncertain macro. We see that the customer growth in the quarter was higher than last year, which is good. Net savings is also higher. Net savings in the quarter, both versus quarter two, but also versus last year. And we see continuous good net savings from the retail segment and less volatility in the private banking segment. So we're all... good net savings in quarter to three. Go to next. And we benefit for being in four markets with diversified revenue streams. We have okay growth in Sweden, but we have even higher growth outside of Sweden when it comes to customers and savings capital. And with the highest growth overall in Denmark, both in customers and savings capital. Go to next. Looking a little bit more on the revenue stream, starting with trading. We have more trades in quarter three compared to quarter two. Slightly less trading customers, but the trades per trading customer is higher. But they're still on a low level. Volatility, we see the VIX index there is on a very low level in quarter three. And also, of course, on certain markets that might make our customers hesitant to do trades. But the share of cross-border trading is keeping up on a good level. And that's also due to the country mix where we have now a lot of customers outside of Sweden that trade more outside of the home markets. Go to next. Looking at the trades per day in a historic perspective, even if we have a lower number of trades per trading customer compared to what we've seen before, we almost doubled the number of trades per day. We doubled the number of trades per day since 2019, due to that we almost doubled the customer base during the same time. When the market turns more positive again, we are, of course, very well positioned with a large customer base that will trade more in a positive market climate. We also see that the income per trade is higher than historic levels, and that's more cross-border trading is due to our country mix. What's next? A little bit about our fund business. And here we're very proud of the development in the fund business. And as we talked about, this is a strategic focus area for us. We put a lot of effort into funds, coupled also with the pension business that also drives the fund business overall. And we grow on the fund capital with 30% in one year versus 15% when it comes to the total savings capital. And if you look at the Nordnet funds, they've grown even more. We have 170 billion SEC of fund kept on the platform now, where of 40 billion is Nordic branded funds. And also good growth in customers taking up the fund products with 850,000 fund customers now, which is an 11% growth in one year. And looking at the graph up at the top in the mid there, you see the allocation of funds of different fund categories. And here we see a slight increase in fixed income funds, which is natural in a high yield environment. And then we have the red, which is the growth of the Nordnet funds. And then the dark blue, which is index funds. And at the bottom is active funds. But Nordnet funds is mainly index funds as well. So the total share of index funds is around now 50%. And the active share has been going from 48% in 2020 to 33% in 2023. So it's a massive shift from active to passive funds. Also very good net buy in the fund business overall last 12 months. Go to next. So now we're going to talk a little bit about net interest income, starting with the deposits. And as before, we are on a rather low deposit level versus savings capital of around 9%. And that's lower than historic levels, which is around 11% to 15%. And we see, even though the customers are not trading a lot, they're still net buying the market, both equities and funds, 12 billion in quarter three, and that's not fully compensated by net savings in cash. And thereby we reduce the deposits somewhat down to 70 billion in a quarter. We can go to next slide. Looking at the liquidity portfolio and the snapshot that we've given now in a number of quarterly reports. And the snapshot for this year is 1.7 billion, assuming then the volumes we have in quarter three, currency allocation, credit spreads and market consensus for the IBO rates for the rest of the year. The main sensitivity here is, of course, the development of the deposits in quarter four. Looking at the liquidity portfolio, that's currently or end of quarter three at 45 billion. It's derived from that 70 billion in deposits, 6 billion in cash equity, and then reduced by the landing of 31 billion. So 45 billion in quarter three. And we have continuous growth from the return in the liquidity portfolio. So in spite of slightly lower volume in liquidity portfolio, it's still growing due to higher interest rates. Go to next. The loan portfolio snapshot is 1.4 billion in 2023, assuming then quarter three volumes and interest rate as per October 1. And looking at the lending portfolio to the left, we have a stable development in the personal loans business. In the mortgage business, we are stable in Sweden and up in Norway. And then we are growing the mortgage lending business in spite of pretty tough markets. But it's also partly due to the FX effect with the big Swedish coronavirus. And we have, of course, good growth also in the loan portfolio, in terms of revenues, both from increased lending, but also, of course, from increased rates. But overall, a low-risk portfolio, the model lending and mortgage is around the loan-to-value of around 40%, and basically no credit losses there. So the only part where we have credit losses is in the unsecured portfolio, which is a little bit higher than last quarter due to more challenging macro, but it's still a very low-risk credit portfolio. We can go to next. And looking at deposits then, so the interest we give on our savings account, we estimate that to be around 400 million SEC in 2023. Assuming the volumes of the savings account, we see an end of quarter three and a currency and customer account mix. Of course, the big sensitivity here is the transfer to the savings account, migration to savings account from other accounts. Currently, 31% of customers' deposits are eligible for deposit interest. And we see up to the right that it's mainly in Sweden where you see a transfer to the savings account from other accounts. And it's a much smaller development than the other countries, in spite of fairly high interest rates, both in Norway and in Denmark. And one reason for this is that we have a lot bigger customers in Sweden. That, of course, if you have a lot of money and part of that is cash, you want to have as good yield as possible. And down to the right, you see net savings also. We don't see any clear correlation between net savings and the interest rate we have on the savings account. We have the highest rates in Norway and Sweden and lower rate than in Finland and Denmark, but still we have considerable net savings in Finland and Denmark. go to next so all in all then resilient revenues bolstered by our diversified revenue streams we see of course that net interest income is growing and we have a lower volume of trading revenues, but a pickup in the fund revenues. But as we talked about last quarter, we see net interest income and trading revenues as communicating vessels in a high rate environment. Of course, you have good net interest income, but then you have negative markets and that will impact trading and vice versa. And the revenue per market per product on the process, of course, going up with the higher interest rates, the trading revenue is continued down due to lower trades per customer. And the fund revenue is also a little bit down and that's due to the mix shift from active to passive. You can go to the next. So all in all, If you look at the revenue development, we have had 30% CAGR since 19. It's a very good revenue growth, but also a very scalable business and good cost control. Cost has only been growing 4% per year. So that means basically the entire top line growth ends up on the bottom line, which is a true position of profitable growth. To next. Also a little bit on the product side, we launched a new fund recently at Nordnet Global Index 125. It's a global fund with leverage. It's around 25% leverage. And it's been very well received. It's a similar product to the AP7 product, the very popular fund in the Swedish pension scheme. And we also had a lot of new versions of our app. On average, we launch a new app version every three days. Both the new travel features, but also a lot of initiatives to improve the onboarding and the conversion of customers coming in and making them active. Then the big launch is, of course, the Finnish wrapper, which is, like I said, an important step to be a one-stop shop for savings investments in Finland. And it's a very good product for private banking. And over time, this will grow considerable capital on our platform. It's a 400 billion SEK market in total. And the differentiators for us is that we have a fully digital solution, also very flexible. You can trade both the equity ETFs and funds. And of course, we have low and transparent fees as well. And for the customers, this is a good product. There's no capital gains when you trade in the account. It's just when you take the money out. And also, it's good for inheritance. Beneficiaries don't need to pay capital gains tax, but only inheritance tax. On other accounts, you need to pay both capital gains tax and inheritance tax. Overall, a very good product, and we're very proud of this launch. So with that, I hand over to you, Lennart, to talk about the capital. Thank you very much.

Yes, you can go to the next slide, please. First of all, I mean, Nordnet has a very solid underlying capital position with also very strong liquidity and good credit quality, we are risk avert to say. With a total capital ratio of 26.4 and a CT ratio, one ratio of 18.7. have increased their own funds by almost a billion this year. But in addition to this quarter, we also received the new SREP, or Pillar 2 requirements, which was significantly lower than the ones that we had before, by giving us a greater buffer than previously. So this total capital ratio, 26.4, compared to the requirement of 15.5, gives us a great optionality to see how to optimize the capital situation for us. But as you can see, the credit quality in the portfolio is still triple AA and single A, very few others, and a good maturity on the investment as well. We have a liquidity reserve that is in relation to deposits of almost 65%, so a very solid liquidity position as well. We can take the next slide. This new Hillary 2 requirement gives us, as I said, a great buffer, and we are now looking into how to optimize this one, this situation, where we, of course, first of all, need to see the growth possibilities we have and what requirements we need for that, because that is the main thing for us. In addition to that, we also look upon the level of outstanding 81 bonds. As you all know, we have a bond with the first call in March of 500 million. but then also there are other aspects of the capital situation or tools for us of course if that would be considered and that is of course buybacks and dividends and things like that but first of all we have to maintain a capacity for growth and then secondly we look into the 81 level of course and then the other tools are used in in

after that if necessary or needed to do the optimization yes thank you Lennart a little bit on the strategic focus Next, as you know, we have four key strategic ambitions, starting with having the most happy customers. So high on MPS and overall, we want to be a one-stop shop with a great customer experience. And we get there by building the best platform for savings and investments. But we also know we won't reach there unless we have very engaged employees, very passionate and talented employees, which we have, and that we also have an upward trend on employee NPS, which we also have, and that we can attract and retain top talent. Third area is a sustainable business. We are in a trust business. We need to earn that trust every day, and especially we need to manage our compliance and other risks in the business and all be trusted and like brand. And the fourth area is profitable growth that we captured a fantastic growth potential we have in the Nordics, where we're taking market share and growing savings markets. And also, of course, I've ensured a good cost control and scalability also going forward. Go to next. Also a very good long-term growth in customers and savings capital was driven by our constant improvement on customer experience, but also that we have critical mass when it comes to customers in all countries to drive the word of mouth growth. We have even higher goals in savings capital compared to customers due to also market growth, but also net savings coming in onto the platform. We can go to next. And this is an important slide and shows that we are taking market share in a growing savings market. And that's been one of the main reasons why we've grown the revenues as much as we've done historically, but also gives a good revenue potential going forward. We have 6% market share when it comes to the population in the Nordics. We have 6% market share when it comes to the addressable market, which is big. It's 13 trillion SEC. And that's up from 3% in 2016. So we're taking market share then in the growing savings market. And we estimate that the adjustment market for us is going to be 20 trillion SEC in 2026, both from underlying growth in the savings market, but also that we launch new products, especially the Finnish wrapper that we just launched. And the next one is the livrent in Denmark. And to the right, you see we have highest market share in equities, but low market share in funds and pension. And that's why we have a lot of focus on both funds and pension business to grow that over time with, I think, a great potential. Go to next. And also overall very good cost discipline that drives an operating leverage. We've doubled the customer base since 2019 from 900,000 customers to 1.8 million customers, but at the same time keeping costs on a stable level. So very good cost control, very good scalability in the business. Partly due to we have a very modern cloud tech platform, so we can onboard a lot of customers without driving cost. We work with process simplification automation, which is a win-win, works better for the customer, and we scale better. We also talked about before our highly efficient customer growth, it's mainly work of mouth and PR base, low acquisition cost, and at the same time, low churn and high lifetime value. And then we work very actively with all of our third parties as well to manage spend. Go to next. So this is the performance versus the mid-term financial targets. And we are basically in line with all the targets. The only one where it's slightly below is the customer growth, where we're at 9% versus the target 10 to 15%. But 9% growth is still very good in this very negative market. So positive markets drive the normally higher customer growth. Go to next. So the key priorities for this year has been to, of course, launch the wrapper, but now to capitalize on the wrapper to get customers and savings capital in. Also lay the foundation then for the next big launch, which is a Danish livrent, the pension product during next year. And here we have recruited now the coming branch manager, Lisa Lott in Denmark, and we're now going to apply for a branch license in Denmark. Continue to integrate Chevelle in our app and web, and we've come far, and there's a lot of actually active usage now of Chevelle in our normal Nordnet app and web. Also continue to expand the Nordnet branded fund offering, where we launched the global 125 funds, but we have more exciting funds in the pipeline. And of course, to continue to focus on cost control and scalability.

And there, John. Great. Thanks a lot, Lars-Ocke and Lennart. Now on to Q&A. So like I said, you just click the raise hand button at the bottom of the screen and I will announce you by name and then unmute you. Or you can submit your question in writing by clicking the Q&A button. And first question comes from Jakob Hesselvik from SEB. Hello, Jakob.

Good morning. Can you hear me?

Yes, we can. Please go ahead.

Perfect. So my first two questions are on your different markets. So we saw a very strong customer growth in Denmark. Is it due to Nordisk that have increased the interest for investing in equity or have you done any marketing campaigns or where does the growth come from?

Yeah, I mean, commenting on Denmark, I think you've seen a very strong development in Denmark for many years. We're a clear number one. We managed to be really this one-stop shop. So I think we see, I mean, the good growth this year is also due to also good growth the previous years. But then, of course, it helps with a positive market. And the Danish market has been performing a lot better than other markets, and not least in Novo Nordisk.

Okay, perfect. And I was also wondering if we could get an update on the Finnish endowment products that Can you say anything about how many number of customers have opened the FIP account, how much capital you have got so far, or any indication of how interest has been?

We don't comment on specific numbers, but it's been a huge interest in the market for the product, I would say, both from customers and from the press. Then we have to remember it's an insurance product. It will take time to build this. And it's always, I mean, some hassles if you want to transfer from existing number of repertoires, you need to sell down and things like that. So it will build a lot of capital over time, but it's a good start, I would say.

All right. Maybe one last question on capital. How should we think about your position, especially if you divest the consumer portfolio, which will help to cover parts of the outstanding 81? You will still be very overcapitalized. Do you prefer buybacks or an extra dividend?

We're looking into all the possibilities, but the main thing, first of all, is that we shall confirm growth capacity that's the main objective for us and then we see on the 81 levels and then we consider the other two after that and we will see how the profit turns out forwardly as well that grows the capital the own funds as well so it's really creating that but it's the growth part that is the most important of course but as you say I mean there's a number of the

room for for the between the capital between the own funds and the capital requirement yes I mean to start with I mean of course you're going to look at the other we are on a low level as you know on deposits now we want to see how that develops we also want to look at the 81 volume so that's number one and number two and but then of course we we we don't have an intention to be over capitalized and we can see look at the other parts like dividends or buybacks

All right, thank you very much.

Thanks a lot, Jakob. Next person up is Patrik Rotelius from ABG. Hello, Patrik. Hello, can you hear me? Yes, we can.

Great. Yeah, I would like to follow up where Jacob asked about the capital situation. Given this overcapitalization, do you have a target range buffer that you aim to be at in the future?

We are looking into that, as I said, trying to navigate it to an optimization on a long-term growth for us. Because always when you come to capital considerations, you have to look upon it very far ahead because that's nothing you just do and then flip it back again. So we will come back to that as well later on. But yes, as you say, I mean, that is also one of the reasons you can see the historical buffers that we have had and are pleased with. Yes, in this legislation.

And continuing on that. You talk about growth ambitions, but in the very short term here, you you will still, I guess, be very overcapitalized when we looking into the fourth quarter and you have good transparency in to the growth avenues can we assume that the payout ratio can be temporarily increased given in order to reduce the over capitalization like i said i mean we

Number one is to look at the deposit goes from here. The deposit level we are on the low level today will now increase in quarter four and quarter one. Number two is data at one volume. And then, of course, we can see what else to do. So this is something we monitor continuously and Of course, we don't have an intention, like we said, to be overcapitalized. So we monitor the situation ongoing.

Thank you. And my last question was a follow-up regarding the Finnish tech wrapper. You mentioned it was a huge interest. Should that be interpreted as we should see an effect already then in the Q4 in the savings capital or customer inflow?

Yeah, like I said, it's a huge interest both from customers and also from the press. That said, I think it's going to be a product that will build up over time, like most insurance products. And we can come back in quarter four and see where we are then, but it will be a product that will build over time for sure.

Okay. And the last question, you announced this start package in Sweden yesterday. Is that something that will be rolled out to the other markets? And can you share an expected impact of this start package in absolute numbers, please?

We don't see that we're going to roll it out in other countries. We do this to match Avanza, to be... on par with their customer offering. And of course, you know, in Sweden also, we are very strong in the higher end segments. And this is a product which is very good for start package, which is very good for retail to start testing our platform. So I think it makes especially sense in Sweden. um the cost for us is is uh low and we have in this it's mainly done for new customers but for existing customers you you need to opt in to this offering but in this So customers that can take up the offering is around 700 million SEK in fund capital. So the impact from refunding is small, it's around 5 million, maximum 5 million SEK per year. But on the other hand, we will get more customers in and more capital in. So that will well compensate that. But it's a very limited impact. So it's limited fund capital for existing customers. And they also need to opt in.

I see. But if you are below your customer growth target, wouldn't it make sense to roll out this product launch in the other countries, given that would be an incentive for customers to join the platform?

Yeah, I mean, of course, we can see how this flies in Sweden first, perhaps in other countries we see it's very good, but also a little different position in Sweden. We are stronger in retail already in the other countries. So this is a good product to attract retail customers in Sweden to show our good platform. and also a little bit due to competition. But let's see. I want to rule it out, but that's not the plan today. But let's see how it plays out in Sweden.

Okay, thank you. Thanks a lot. Patrik, next person up here is Niklas McBeath from DNB. Hello, Niklas. Niklas, you are on mute. So you need to unmute Niklas. Now, hello, Niklas. Niklas is there, but we can't hear him. Well, Elk, you can come back later. Let's move on then to Ermin Kerik from Carnegie. Hello, Ermin.

Good morning. Do you hear me?

Yes, we can. Please go ahead, Ermin.

Thank you. So maybe if we start on the NII. Could you give us any kind of same snapshot as you're doing now for 2023, but for 2024? Is there anything kind of outside of the IBOR curves we need to consider? Is there any pricing that you've already announced or anything like that that we should consider for 2024?

I know I say nothing you haven't announced that we haven't announced, but I think the big thing to look at, I mean, overall with this IBO curves that we have right now, the estimate for the IBO curves in 2024, we see definitely potential to grow net interest income also in 2024. The sensitivity, as I said, that's the same for the 2023 snapshot is the deposit level and also how much capital that's transferred to the savings accounts. But I think a lot of the trends you see already and deposit level versus savings capital, as you know, is already on a very low level.

Got it. Thanks. Then on the correlation between net savings and the rate offered on savings accounts, you said that wasn't so strong. What is your analysis why, for instance, Avanza is having much stronger inflows in Sweden this year than you're seeing on a Nordic basis? If we look at previous years, you've been quite on par.

Yeah, it's varying a little bit because last year we were considerably stronger than them, especially in H2. And this year it's a little bit the other way around. And I think they got some capital back also from what left them in H2. But then I think it's also customer mix that we have a larger share, not least in Sweden with bigger customers. And we know that the private banking segment they've had done quite a lot of reallocation in their portfolios. That has impacted net savings over the quarters. Less so in 43, but more in 41 and 42. But again, the retail segment has been very stable and very good net savings.

Thanks. And then maybe a final question. ties a little bit into to some previous questions but in sweden now you've changed so you can have switch your commission class much more frequently you expanded to start offering are you doing an increased push on sweden currently yeah but in sweden we want to definitely broaden more into the retail segment we are very strong in the investor and the trader segment and we want to broaden in the retail segment and i think with

We want to match the offerings in the market fully. And also, we put a lot of effort in our fund and pension business, which is also critical to expand into retail. So we are definitely pushing into retail in Sweden. But in the other countries, we already have a strong retail position as well. And change commission class, for example, every day you can also do in Norway. We can look at the other countries as well. But of course, if it's... Like we discussed previously, I mean, if you see that something flies well also in Sweden, we can also export it to the other countries.

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Thanks a lot, Armin. We'll go back to Niklas and see if we have him with us. Hello, Niklas. No, we don't. There seems to be something wrong with the Niklas line here. Okay, so let's move on then to Nordea and Richard Strand. Hello, Richard. Hello and good morning.

Can you hear me?

Yes, we can.

Hi, thanks. So first question, tying it into Armin's previous question there on the MAI in the various countries. Just want to hear if you could give an update on the pressure you feel to raise both savings account rates, but also if there is any pressure to raise other rates to customers outside of Sweden. Yeah.

Of course, we monitor the market continuously and we monitor flows, especially. As you know, we've increased the rates in other countries. In Norway, we have a high rate, almost on the level as we have in Sweden, but in different buckets, depending on capital. We also increased the rate in Denmark to 175 recently. The country where we currently don't have a rate is Finland. And that's also market we'll look at a little bit as well, what to do going forward. But adding rates on the savings accounts in Norway and Denmark hasn't really created a lot of transfer to the savings accounts, not at all in the same way as we've seen in Sweden. But that's also, again, due to a little bit of the customer mix, where we have customers with bigger capital in Sweden. But there's not been any push to put interest rates on other accounts than the savings accounts.

Thanks. And then on capital, as I understood it, you aim to come back with sort of a buffer range that you want to operate in within on the leverage ratio. Was that correctly understood?

Yes, mainly. I mean, that's the one that we don't solely control ourselves. Regarding the risk weighted requirement, we actually can always adjust it because we do invest in credit quality. It's not a lending bank in that respect. So that is the one where we have to have a buffer for customers' initiatives rather than our own's.

And then if I understand it correctly, the reduction you got on the leverage ratio guidance now in Q3 was related to reduced volatility on deposit accounts. Do you see a risk that this add-on could come back if deposit flows gets more volatile or was this related to an extraordinary event during COVID or what's your view here?

Volatility was of course extremely volatile during the COVID and especially at the start of it actually when we in two months time received 20 billion in new deposits but I'm also thinking there was a reconsideration from the SFSA where they motivated and saw things in another angle we saw that the other banks similar to ourselves had the same reduction on it and I was quite sure that the regulators want the leverage ratio requirement to be less than the risk weighted, as otherwise you force banks to actually invest more risky than they should. So I think I don't see that risk as huge, but of course it's always there. If there would be volatility, if we would have two small buffers, yes, of course they will require us to increase Or rather, they will put a higher requirement on us. Yes. So we have to watch this and balance it out properly.

And then a final question from my side. The strategic overview taken on your consumer loan book. How do you see the timing here, given that the sort of price tag for similar assets is quite depressed currently? What's the timeframe you're looking at? Could you potentially hold on to it for a bounce back in valuation, etc.?

? Yeah, so I mean, we look at two tracks for this. One is a sales. The other track is to basically limit lending volumes. to reduce the portfolio over time. So we will, of course, not sell unless we get the price that we want to have. So we'll be working on this at least during quarter four. And as soon as we have something, we're going to update the market, of course.

Okay, thank you. Thanks a lot. Richard, we move on and now we come to Michael McNaughton from UBS. Hello, Michael.

Hi, good morning. Can you hear me? Yes, we can. Hello, Michael. Great, thank you. Yeah, just a quick follow on the NII. Could you give us an indication of kind of changes in flows you were seeing on the start of the quarter into savings accounts in Sweden versus the end of the quarter? There was a big difference there. in the kind of speed of the flows?

What we see still is very strong flows from retail, which we've had all year. But the more volatile flows from private banking due to reallocation of their portfolios. So let's see. I can comment more specifically. We don't see any change in trends. Retail is still very strong. So it depends on what the private banking, if they will do reallocations or not.

Okay. But there's no kind of indication that it's the kind of the larger customers have moved their money and have kind of slowed down.

um is most of that already done or can we expect that yeah but it's off and on you know it can also be that they contribute actually to bring money back but but you know they can they want to make a big investment in the unlisted company it can be a big event or want to buy a bonds or or uh So it's a lot of different reasons, but it's, of course, been a lot of reallocations during this year and second half of last year due to the markets we're in. But that can also mean that over time that you get money back because reallocate back more into the equity markets.

Sure. Okay. And then just on fund commissions in a big pickup in passive funds, do you disclose the kind of the average fund commission margins on your active funds versus the passive ones?

We only have the mix as you see it now in passive. Norway is a little bit more transparent because then we have a platform fee, as you know, where we have 19 BIPs for index and 29 BIPs for active. But also our fund company and our own non-net branded funds are mainly index funds and they're very popular as pure index funds and also funds of index funds. And in that portfolio, we also have a better margin than just have a distribution fee for external funds. I think by the focus we have on our own company, our own funds and our own index funds, we can also over time create a fairly okay margin on index funds as well.

Okay, great. Thank you. And just quickly as well, could you remind us the timing plans for the Danish life insurance product? Some point 2024, I believe? Yeah, the target is 2024. Great. Thank you very much.

Thanks a lot, Michael. Let's see here. Next person up is Alex Medhurst from Barclays. Hello, Alex. Alex is on mute. Hello, Alex. Hello, can you hear me?

Yes, we can. Please go ahead, Alex. Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple of follow-ups here, if that's all right. Firstly, can you talk a bit about why you think trading volumes have diverged between Sweden and other markets in Q3 and whether you expect that to persist? And then a second question, just on thoughts into FY24 costs. Conscious sort of the inflationary environment is still high, but receding a little bit. How do you feel about costs versus the medium term guidance of mid-single digits? Thanks.

Yeah, the trading volume, as you know, is a bit volatile between the quarters, especially between the countries. And that's why we are very happy to have four countries to spread the market risk. And this quarter three, I mean, development in Sweden was basically a flat quarter on quarter, but considerably or quite a bit up in the other countries. And one reason for that is, of course, the development in the markets, especially Denmark and Norway did fairly okay. Sweden had a bad quarter and Finland as well. But it's very good to spread the market risk over four markets. When it comes to cost, I mean, we are aiming for the midterm guidance. And we can manage that unless, you know, inflation really spikes back or the FX or the Swedish krona crashes even further. But with the current environment, we see that we can meet the midterm guidance.

Thank you.

Thank you, Alex. We'll go to Mr. Enrico Bolsoni from J.P.

Morgan. Hello, Enrico. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. One on the Finnish wrapper. You mentioned the addressable market, the total addressable market. Can you give us an idea of what is the total addressable market in terms of incremental growth? net flows that go into this product every year so that's my first question and then um just just a specification on the if we look at the opex evolution the only country that really saw an increase quarter on quarter is norway which was a bit more pronounced than the others can you just remind us what might be the cause for the for the higher cost growth there compared to other markets thank you

Yeah, it's a 400 billion market in total. Part of that is insurance product that we have. That's about half or a little bit more than half. But I mean, we have a 9% market share in the savings capital overall in Finland. And I don't see why we shouldn't be able to take over time a 9% market share in this space. But I stress it will take the time to build this up. It's almost like a pension product. You build it over time, but it's a very sticky and very good product when you have it. When it comes to cost, I think... uh i mean we the the cost per per country is fairly small versus the big cost which is product and tech in in stockholm or sweden um so i don't know there was no specific event in in norway then i don't know if you have any further but there is no it's probably just uh

some volatility between yeah I would say it's normal volatility throughout the year yes definitely because that's such a small part of the total cost which in each country really

Thanks. And sorry, going back to the finished product, my question was more in terms of what is the annual growth in this?

We don't guide specifically on it, but our target is to have around the same market share space as we have in the other adjustable savings market. It will be probably clearer after, I mean, going into 2024, how long time it will take to build up the capital. But it's definitely more slow moving than a normal account because it's more like an insurance pension account type. Thank you.

Thank you, Enrico. We have a couple of people left that want to ask questions. The next one is from Morgan Stanley. Panos Elinas. Hello, Panos. Panos is on mute. Hello, Panos.

Hi, can you hear me now?

Yes, I can hear.

Yeah, I just have a few follow-ups on the savings account. Obviously, the flows accelerated in Q3, and you also increased the rates towards the end of September. So I'm just wondering, how do you think of the flows for this quarter? And... Can you give us a bit more color as to where this flow is coming from? Is it from existing clients making new money on the platform or is it from new clients just parking cash? That's my first question.

Yeah. Yeah, I think the flows, what we've shown is the majority of that is still in Sweden, as definitely smaller flows in other countries. Of course, some of the flows is from external customers, but the main flows is from internal migration. But on the other hand, if they hadn't migrated, our savings account, we probably lost the money out. So I think it's a good way to protect the capital on the platform.

Sure. And then when I look at the NII guidance for the full year, I guess, does it include any potential impact from divesting the personal loans?

No. So that process is ongoing and definitely in quarter four. So we get back to you as soon as we have more information, but it's no numbers included from that in anything. But profit-wise, it won't have a big impact because let's say if you sell the business, the liquidity that we free up, the 4 billion, we can reinvest in the treasury portfolio with a really good yield. So it's basically a wash compared to the profit we have today.

My last one on cost... Presume the guidance for the 7% cost growth for the whole year implies about 5% cost growth in Q4 compared to the 8% in the nine months so far. So I'm just wondering, do you have some flexibility in the cost base or is something that

Yeah, it's a little bit also the FX. Let's see how the FX plays out. But we aim to meet the cost guidance, but with a flag on FX there. And that's been hurting us. You know, underlying, we're 1.5% lower on cost growth if you would have fixed FX during this year.

Maybe my last one on fund capital. I mean, quarter on quarter, the strongest growth was in Norway in the funds compared to the markets. So I don't know, can you share some color there and trends in Norway?

Yeah, it's probably also because Norway has been a little bit stronger. You had a tough market. So Denmark and Norway were stronger. Finland and Sweden were bad market-wise. But if you look at the flows, I think we have good and strong net flows, net buys in all of the countries. And not least in our own non-net branded funds.

Thanks so much. Thanks. We'll take a question in writing that comes from Jacob from Bernstein Autonomous. When you say capital optionality for growth, is that predominantly organic or are there serious considerations to acquire assets? That's the first one. Secondly, on capital, what would be your target level of 81 in the capital base? Number two and number three. Finally, could you comment on the ROE or profit of the consumer lending business? Lars Åker Olle, and that you can take it as you want.

Yeah, I mean, starting with first, I mean, it's organic. We don't have any M&A plans. Of course, if it's a potentially interesting case in the Nordics, we will look at it, but we take that case by case. But that's not for that. It's more, we know that deposit versus savings capital now is on a low level. So we need to have room to increase deposits over time. So it's that way. And the second part we look at then is 81 volume, but I don't know, Lennart, if we can say that we have any targets for 81 volume, but we look at 81 volume and when we do something, we'll communicate to you.

Correctly, yes.

And the profit on consumer lending, the net profit is, or the profit before tax is around 150 million SEK, give or take. So if you reinvest the 4 billion into the liquidity portfolio, around 4% yield is basically the same profit before tax there. So it was a very good product when it was a low yield environment. for getting yield on liquidity. But now we're in a different environment.

Thank you. Last person up here to ask a question today is Emil Jonsson from DNB. Hello, Emil.

Hello. Hello, Emil. Hi, it's actually Niklas here. I'm using... Great, Niklas.

Check, check, check.

Yeah. Jone Peter Reistadler, yeah so so just follow up question on the nai so if I take your nai outlook for 2023 that implies on eight and a million in nai for to for which annualized translates into 3.2 billion. Jone Peter Reistadler, To look at consensus and I for 2024 it's at 2.6 billion so. Yeah, implicitly assuming a quite marked decline in your NII run rate from what you're indicating in your outlook. So how do you think about the NII growth in 2024? Do you see similar decline as consensus given how market rate expectations look? And yeah, do you see any reason to expect substantially higher deposit costs going into 2024?

Overall, we see definitely potential to grow in NII also next year if the estimate on market rates are correct. But we also know, I mean, you always have this deposit volume versus interest rates on savings account that we monitor continuously, as you know. And we have the rates that's competitive so we don't lose capital out from the platform. That means, of course, we need to follow the market also during next year. I think we are already at the high end in Norway and Sweden. for rates on savings account. And we increased quite a bit in Denmark, perhaps a little bit more to go, but the big question then what we should do in Finland, probably we need to do something there as well. But again, with rates on savings account in Denmark and Norway, even with fairly high rates, we haven't seen any massive internal flows anyway to those accounts. So let's see how that plays out.

Okay, and then a question on your market shares in deposit, as you showed in the presentation, it's fairly low at just 1%. So do you think this is also something prioritized for you to grow? And if so, what do you have in mind to expand this potential expand this very low market share in Nordic deposits?

Yeah, we currently, I mean, we focused on keeping the existing money on the platform. And of course, we can look at different ways to also market the products we have a little bit more to perhaps attract more capital from outside. We have the room on leverage ratio for sure to increase deposits. Yeah. And we have a very good rate, not least in Norway and Sweden that we perhaps can talk about more.

All right. And then just to follow up on the consumer lending business, is this still, I think you mentioned in the IPO process, this was like a 25 to 30% ROE business. Is this still the case you think in the current rate environment? And yeah, And I don't quite understand the comments how you could receive similar income from, if you were to put this in Rwanda for reduce the four billion in lending and invest into the liquidity portfolio, shouldn't there be some kind of negative impact? I would assume you have a higher interest income on the consumer lending portfolio than in the liquidity portfolio.

Yeah, you have a higher income for sure. I mean, so the revenues give or take is around 250 million, but the profit is 150 million. It costs money to run the portfolio and you also have credit losses. So if you look at the profit before taxes, you're on 150. So if you then free up to 4 billion and invest that in the liquidity portfolio, you get roughly the same number. So you need to look at the bottom line. Of course, the top line is a little bit different.

All right. Thanks for the clarification. That's all for me.

Thank you, Niklas. And that was also the last question for today. Thank you all for attending this presentation. And our next quarterly report will come out on the 30th of January. Please visit our website or reach out to the IR department if you have any questions about NodeNet. Thank you for your interest. Have a nice day and goodbye. Thank you. Thank you all.