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Nordnet AB (publ)
4/24/2025
Good morning everyone and welcome to the presentation of NONET's first quarter of 2025. My name is Marcus Lindbergh and I'm the head of investor relations at NONET. With me today I have our CEO Lars Håkan-Åhling and our CFO Lennart Krén. Lars Håkan and Lennart will start off by presenting the results and then we'll have a Q&A session. During the presentation all participants will be on the mute. Then when we come to the Q&A session you have two alternatives to ask questions. You can click the raise hand button, I'll then unmute you and call your name. Or you can submit a question in writing through the Q&A button. The presentation itself is available on our corporate website NONETAB.com. OK, let's start the presentation. Lars Håkan, please go ahead.
Thank you, Marcus. We can go to the next slide. So starting with the highlights, the revenue and profit reached record levels too in the quarter, especially strong growth in our core business, the fund and brokerage business. We also see the highest customer growth in net savings in four years. Market turbulence, of course, drives a lot of trading, but it's also weighed on savings capital. And also that's partly due to a stronger SIEC. Low interest rates draw NII headwinds, partly compensated by higher deposits. OPEX excluding Germany was up around 30 percent due to sequencing on marketing spend. And we expect to meet the pool of guidance of around 8 percent growth excluding Germany. We also launched many nice new features for the more trader segments or higher segments. More is to come as well. I'm going to cover that on a separate slide. Also, good start of the Danish pension product, Librente, leading to record net savings and pensions in Denmark in quarter one. One point six billion SEC, which is around 900 million SEC, same quarter last year. And we concluded also the first buyback program of 500 million SEC and applied for another program. What's next? A little bit the impact from the volatility we've seen now in quarter one, due to the tariffs and of course, led to higher activity and trading. Trades are up 22 percent year on year. But we also see a slowdown in net buying during the quarter and especially in March, where we see a fairly large outflow from funds. And it's also we see a rotation from the US to Europe. When it comes to cross border trading, it's been on an elevated level, both in quarter four and quarter one. In quarter four, everyone wants to invest in the US. And in quarter one, everyone wants to rotate away from the US, leading to high share of cross border trading. We also see that a reduction of savings capital following the strength and SEC, but also negative market performance. But the strength and SEC effect is pretty large. 43 billion SEC during the quarter, both impacting, of course, customers' portfolios that they have in dollars and euro, but also since they consolidate in SEC and know that it was getting an impact from there. Go to next. Some numbers for the quarter, strong customer growth, 14 percent up year on year. Also good growth and savings capital, 9 percent mainly from net savings as markets have been flatish year on year. Number trades up to two percent due to high volatility in the markets. Revenue almost one point four billion as a record level. We see higher revenues from fund and brokerage, but lower revenue from net interest income due to lower rates. Operating expenses up 15 percent year on year, but excluding the German is around 30 percent. But that's we are that much higher than last year is mainly due to sequestral marketing spend, where we have more even a distributed marketing spend this year compared to last year, where we were back and loaded, especially in quarter four. But like I said, we expect to meet the full year guidance around 8 percent cost growth, excluding Germany. And also good growth in profitability, close to one billion SEC in profitability, which is also a record for the quarter. Next, we see continued momentum in the growth in customers and net savings. The growth in customer base, almost 70,000 customers in the quarter and 35 billion SEC in net savings. It's a very good numbers. But we also saw even it was a lot of turbulence in March. We saw good customer growth in net savings also in March. Next, and we benefit from having diversified business over for Nordic countries. There is a business model and enables growth. We see good growth in all countries, countries, especially strong customer growth in Denmark. Our savings capital in Denmark was flatish. That was mainly due to the big drop in share price of Northern Nordic. Can go to next. Looking at trading, we see a number of trading customers here to the left. The blue line there is growing in line with the growth of the customer base, but also the boosted in quarter one from seasonality and the volatile markets. We also see that trades trading customers is up a little bit also due to volatility and also then cross border trade and that we discuss is also up both in quarter four and quarter one. But this is an effect, I mean, both from a country mix of the highest share of cross border trading outside of Sweden in Norway, Finland, Denmark. But then, of course, boosted them by volatility. Trade today also is considerably up in more than double where we were in 2019. That's also an effect from a growing customer base, we want a double customer base since 19, but also due to the seasonality and volatility in quarter one. But also looking at revenue or income trade is considerably up since 19, almost 60 percent. That's the effect of high share of cross border trading due to country mix, but also that the mix between retail versus heavy trade is also more retail in the later years. Looking at the fund business is also continuing good growth here. We see that fund capital is growing almost twice as much as total savings capital. One quarter of the fund capital is non-appranded funds, which is mainly index funds, and 40 percent give or take of the net buy into funds is going into the non-appranded funds. More than half of the customer base now, more than one million customer-owned funds, and we see activity also of customers buying and selling funds is steadily increasing. But of course, we see a drop here in the fund capital due to market decline, but also a stronger sick. And also net buying for the last of March is a little bit lower, mainly due to lower net buy than in quarter one this year. What's next? Looking a little bit on net interest income, starting here with the deposits, we see the deposit versus savings capital is up from 7 percent to 8 percent. And the full deposits are up from 70 billion to almost 79 billion in the quarter, both from strong net savings dividends, but also considerably lower net buy in the quarter of equity and funds compared to what we normally see. We go to next. So looking a little bit on the snapshots here for the different components of NII, we start with the liquidity portfolio snapshot, 1.5 billion, and that assumes then the volumes we have in quarter one, and also the market consensus estimates for the three month interest rates. But we see here that the liquidity portfolio is up almost 10 billion in the quarter as mainly from deposits. But on the other hand, we see the interest rate is lower than we saw in quarter four due to expected impact on the net from tariffs. So next, I look at the loan portfolio snapshot for 2025, it's estimated to yield 1.1 billion SEC, assuming then the quarter one volumes and interest rates as per 1st of April, and the interest rates pass that we saw on the previous page with a pass through of margin lending of 50 percent, mortgage 100 percent. And here we see a slight drop in the margin lending volumes in the quarter. It's mainly due to strong SEC and we consolidated the modern lending from Norway, Denmark, Finland into SEC impacting that. Of course, the main sensitivity here is the growth on modern lending volume, but likely if the market's slow, condone a little bit, we'll see a continued growth in modern lending. Also low risk lending portfolio in general, with a low value around 40 percent for both modern lending and mortgage. And in spite of the severe turbulence, we haven't seen any credit losses on modern lending. Next. And deposit interest cost snapshot is estimated to be around 400 million in 2025 and assuming 2025 volumes and 100 percent pass through of the IBO changes. And here the main sensitivity is, of course, the amount of capital on the savings accounts, but that's likely to decrease over time when interest rate decrease, that the customers keep the money on the trading accounts instead of we already seen that starting to take effect here in the last quarters. What's next? So in summary, we're looking at the revenues in Brazilian revenues bolstered by diversified revenue streams. And we see good growth in all revenue streams, both the net interest income, the fund business and also the brokerage business. Looking down to the grass to the right, we see also a little bit uptick in margin on trading, thus due to high share of cross-border and also that the retail versus heavy traders is a favorable mix. Also a little bit higher fund margin due to buy and sell of non-domestic bonds. What's next? So then all that you bought everything down to numbers, we have a very strong revenue growth since 19 around 30% per year to increase revenue from 1.5 billion to over 5 billion now in the last 12 months. While cost growth is fairly limited around 6%. So it's a true position profitable growth where most of the top line growth ends up on the bottom line. And we also, one of the main focus areas for us this year is to launch new features and functions for the high end segment. So customers trading a bit more. And we have launched, as you know, the Amnesty recommendations and price targets in quarter four last year. And it's been very popular with more than 60 million views and 500,000 unique users in quarter one. So it's very well received feature. We also during the quarter launched algorithmic order executions with VWAP, TWAP, but also you can access full liquidity through all the dark pools. Also very good take up and reception of that service. And just before Easter year we lost also USP market trading from one approximately. You can start trading US equity already from one o'clock on a platform, but we don't stop here. It's more to come. During the quarter going to launch FX accounts on the ISK and KF. We also going to launch additional markets for electronic trading in Europe. And I think that's a big interest in Europe now with the shift from US to Europe. And we also got to launch a rich company data, both historic data and forward looking data and historic data we actually launched today. So with that, I hand over to you, Damat. Thank
you. Good morning, everyone. We can go to the next slide. And as expected, I would say all in according to plan, we still have a very strong capital situation. Also liquidity situation is very good. Where we the leverage ratio is the constraining part. And that has, of course, decreased a little bit due to the increase of deposit, but it's still on a solid level with 5.4 percent, but the requirement of 3.5 percent. So it's a very good situation we have here, which enable us to continue the dividend policy that we have, paying out the 70 percent of the net earnings and also adding a new program whenever it is approved by the SSA or shared of shares for this year as well. Or it is planned to be in line with last year. So that is where about we are. But as a summary, very good strong capital and liquidity situation gives us a lot of flexibility to do work with. Thank you.
A little bit on the strategic focus. As you know, we can focus areas starting with, of course, with the customer side, but we want to have the most satisfied customers. We want to be a one stop shop for savings and investments. We need a good customer experience. But we also know to have happy customers, you need really passionate and talented staff to want to see your upper trend on employee satisfaction and also that we can attract and retain top talent and sustainable business. So we are in a trust business. We need to earn that trust every day and especially we need to manage our risks in a good way and overall secure that we are a trusted and like brand. And the last area is profitable growth to continue them to capture the Nordic cross potential. And next year also launch Germany, but continue to take market share and go in savings market. But at the same time, focus on scalability and cost control to have a scalable business model also going forward. And we're very happy with if you look at the customer growth, savings capital growth over the years, which is very strong and customer growth, savings capital growth is the main driver for revenue growth for us. The customers sign up, they like what they see, they transfer money from the existing banks or pension companies and start using our products. So that's the engine that tries that the revenue growth for us. We'll go to next. We are taking market share in a going savings market, but still we're fairly low levels with room to grow in the Nordics for many years. And on top of that, we have Germany as an option. We have now 8% of the Nordic population on the platform. We have 7% of the addressable savings capital on the platform and the addressable market will leave revenue is not big. It's around 8 trillion SEC in 2024. And we take market share last year, we have 6% market share. So again, 1% market share in one year. And we know that the market will also continue to grow. We've done the line market growth and we're highest. We've looked at the right highest market share in equities, low market shares in funds and pension, but we put a lot of effort, as you know, in those areas. And we also see steady and nice growth in both fund and pension business. And also part of our scale of business model and cost control. We have in 19, we have had 900,000 customers. Now we have 2.1 million customers. And in spite of that, cost has not grown that much. A little bit set up in 2024, but that's due to additional marketing of 55 million during 2024 to drive additional brand awareness in our different countries. And initiatives, I mean, we really benefited to have a scalable cloud tech platform that we work with automation, which is win-win works better for customers and we scale better. But also that we really have an efficient customer growth. It's mainly based on word of mouth and PR, so low acquisition cost. Go to next. Looking at the, where we are versus the midterm financial targets, we're in line. So customer growth is 40% versus guidance of 30 to 15%. Service capital close to the 500,000 SEC level. It was a little bit down in quarter one due to drop them in the markets. Income in the market is higher than 45 bits due to higher trading activity, but also higher deposit levels. And cost is even a little bit higher in quarter one versus last year. We expect to meet the full year guidance of 8% growth per year, excluding Germany. Go to next. Looking at the key priorities for 2025, of course, to lay the groundwork for launch of Germany. It's supposed to establish the branch in Germany, also do the development of the platform, but of course also recruit the German team. And here we're really happy to announce our new country manager. That's going to start on May 1 and that's Marcus Pertl's visa. And he has a broad background from the financial industry in Germany, but being with McKinsey, also working at Deutsche Bank, both as a CEO for the bank branches, but also as a chief digital officer and also being with a smaller digital startup working with the financial services to the small and medium-sized enterprises named Pemta. So really, really good experience. And also really happy that he can start already on May 1. And we're also going to, of course, continue to realize the potential in the new leased rental product and also continue to do the strong net flows in the fund and the pension business. We're going to also enhance the high-end offering for private bank and active trading customers that we talked about. So many launches already done, but also many exciting things coming in the coming quarters. We're going to continue with the panoramic wall out of the new brand campaign to drive brand awareness. In 2023, we spent 45 million sec on marketing. Last year, we spent 100 million sec and this year we spend a full 125 million sec that we announced before. And of course, to continue to focus on underlying cost control and ensure that we also have a scale of business going forward. With that, I hand over to you, Marcus.
Marcus S. Thank you. Great. So let's start the Q&A session. So like I said before, if you want to ask a question, just click the raise hand button. I'll then announce your name and unmute you or submit a question in writing. So the first question comes from Jakob Heslevik at SEB. Please go ahead.
Jakob Heslevik Good morning, everyone. On slide 10, historically speaking, what has happened with the dividends your client has received? I would assume it's usually reinvested in the following quarter. Or do you have any other specific theories of what usually occurs?
Marcus S. No, but it's normally reinvested. You're correct. Of course, a little bit higher in the search into this quarter leading to less net buys. So let's see how the next quarter plays out if the quality of the certainty persists or not. But normally it's reinvested in the market.
Jakob Heslevik Okay, that's clear. But then if forward margin has come down since Q4, and we assume clients reinvested dividends, wouldn't that mean you would have to decrease your full year NIA guidance already in Q2?
Marcus S. No, but I mean, the deposits goes as a function of the net savings, which of course, continue on a good basis and was very strong in quarter one. You mean, sorry, and you mean the forward rates, but the forward rates that we use with the volume of deposits is what you see as a snapshot. Jakob Heslevik Yeah, we take in the latest forward rates. So I think it was yesterday's rates that we have in the pack.
Marcus S. No, but I mean, the forward rates that we use with the volume of deposits is what you see as a snapshot. Jakob Heslevik Yeah, so assume rates are stable and then you just take a snapshot of the positive volume in Q2 and then that's how you get your full year guidance, right?
Jakob Heslevik Yeah, so the volume we have in quarter one, but with the interest rates that's consensus passed for the rest of the year. And those are absolutely, I think they are from yesterday, actually.
Marcus S. No, but also we can expect dividends to continue. Q2 is a pretty heavy dividend quarter. Last year, there was about 9 billion of dividends coming in.
Jakob Heslevik Yeah, sure. That's a good point. And then finally, net savings per month on page five. Does this not include dividends that your client has received right? And it's only inflows from banks?
Marcus S. No, only inflow from banks and financial companies. Jakob Heslevik And
is there anything specific in the March numbers because it looks quite high when we go back in history as well? Is it broad based or is it specific to a few private bank clients?
Marcus S. No, it's a little bit private banking effect in Sweden. As we know, some quarters could be negative movements and some quarters positive movements and this quarter was really positive movements. So we're happy about that. But the underlying retail and underlying TB growth net savings is good. But it was a little bit extra boosted by some TB customers in Sweden.
Jakob Heslevik Perfect. Thank you so much.
Nicholas McBeast Thank you, Jakob. Next question comes from Nicholas McBeast from DNB. Please go ahead, Nicholas.
Nicholas McBeast Good morning. Good morning. So I'd like to follow up a bit on the net savings. So I think it's interesting to see the country split for customers and net inflows in the quarter and in particular looking at Sweden because what we can see there is that the number of customers is more or less flat year on year. But you've seen a significant improvement in net savings and that accounts for the increase in total net savings for the entire group year on year. So is there anything more you can add there on the net savings figure for Sweden in particular given that, you know, customer growth in Sweden doesn't look to be that significant at this point? Is it, have you gained any particular volumes from some competitors? Is it the marketing efforts that are starting to give a positive boost or anything more you can add there, please?
Jakob Heslevik Yeah, well, looking at customer growth, it was that due to the sale of the private banking, private loan business, sorry, to the economy, but except for that, it grows from around 6% so it's not totally flat. But the net inflows, I think we see both from retail and TB in Sweden, good inflows, but like I said, it was a little bit extra boosted from some bigger private bank customers in the quarter in Sweden.
Nicholas McBeast All right. And then, as you mentioned, your leverage ratio went down a bit quarter on quarter because of the deposit inflows, but it's still at the very healthy levels. Do you see any potential to accelerate the buybacks given where you are in terms of capital that you're still some above where you're looking to be? And I can't really see how you're going to go down to your target level unless you increase the buyback pace unless something dramatically happened, of course, if you see significantly larger deposits or something but you know, just given the current operating process seems like you're still substantially overcapitalized.
Jakob Heslevik You want to answer that,
Emmet? Emmet I can say yes, of course, we are overcapitalized, but we also set the plan and that is what the one we stick to. And the plan is to be in line with our targets of the leverage ratio 4.2, 0 to 4.5 at the end of 2026. So this is just the cautious plan to be aware that, yes, we can have increase in deposits quite significant, but we can handle them over time. So this is according to plan and also not to disturb the stock market too much with the buybacks as well.
And we also, as you know, have an 81 less to 2026 and 2026. So we need to have optionality around that one as well.
Jakob
Heslevik Yeah, sure. And then finally on your currency revenues. First of all, it seems like the currency revenues increased more than the actual number of the cross-party trades. So is that the consequence of larger trades or anything particular there that accounts for the large increase in currency revenues? And then secondly, related to that, do you see any implications from your currency revenues from the launch of FX accounts on ESK and the capital for shakering, as you mentioned earlier on the call?
Emmet This specific model, I don't have exact numbers, but it can be related to that the trade value is a little bit higher or value per trade is a little bit higher. But I think markets can come back with that. When it comes to the FX accounts, we launched them during quarter two. So we don't expect any big decrease. It might be that we can attract customers back that are not trading foreign shares with us because we don't have FX accounts.
Jakob Perfect. Thank you. Niklas Great. Thank you, Niklas. Next question comes from Ermin at Carnegie. Please go ahead,
Ermin. Ermin Good morning. Do you hear me? Niklas Yeah. Morning. Ermin Morning. Niklas Excellent. Great. So my first question would just be on Q2. Can you give us any color on how clients are active now at the start of the quarter? Is it still high activity or is it being an initial sell off and then reduced activity? And that goes both for trading but also customer intake capital. Can you give us any kind of flavor on that?
Niklas Yeah. But as you know, the first couple of weeks were very volatile still, driving of course activity. But then after that, we have an Easter that destroys the picture a little bit. So I think you will see the full picture when we announced the monthly numbers in beginning of May. But yes, so combination both of Easter and high activity in the beginning.
Ermin Okay, fair enough. Then the launch of the Algo trading, especially you're charging a little bit extra for for our business use dark pools, etc. Do you expect the take up there to be big enough to have any impact on the commission rates on a group level over time?
Niklas I see, of course, hard to tell. But I think it's off to a good start anyway. And hopefully we can attract also customers and trading that we haven't seen before on the platform. So let's see how it is up. But it was a good start, I would say, all the service is very appreciated by the customers.
Ermin Great. And then the last question would be on the platform audit you had in mid February. Have you had any kind of feedback from authorities on that? I know you're right that you haven't had any kind of final verdict, but Niklas No, no
feedback so far. But as you know, we reported incidental to email and FSA. Niklas
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from Martin at Pandas Banken. Please go ahead.
Martin, can you hear us?
Martin I see that you're unmuted. All right. Well, let's let's come back to Martin. Let's then go to Eliko Bosoni from JP Morgan. Eliko, please go ahead. Eliko Hi, good morning.
Can you hear me well? Martin Yes. Thank you for taking the questions. So first question, given the current macroeconomic context, can you just give us some color on what have been your thoughts in terms of, for example, marketing span over the last few weeks? And is there a scenario where you would have considered maybe to pull back a bit and slow down, for example, on the expansion in Germany? Or actually, you think that the current scenario is an opportunity to accelerate things, maybe spend even a bit more in marketing to try to capitalize on that. So just very high level general comments for you would be appreciated. And then I also wanted to ask you, with the, let's say, reduced appeal for US stocks, do you think that actually other European countries can absorb the proportional cross border trades that were that was going to the US or actually if this continues, you would expect just lower proportion of cross border trades going forward. And then finally, given the change in the rate environment, rates came down a bit. Do you think that you might push a bit more to increase the lending book? For example, I think about mortgages or perhaps expanding the mortgage offer to other courts of clients or maybe other countries outside of Sweden. Thank you.
Yeah, when it comes to marketing span, we haven't really changed our plans. We run one really big boost per quarter and then we're always on between. But when it was most volatile, it was actually after our boosts. So we didn't really need to reflect on if we needed to do anything or not. But so far, we follow our plan. So it's going to be another big boost and in quarter two and quarter three and quarter four. But then always on between. When it comes to the German launch, there's no impact. We continue there with what's established in the branch of recruitment and development. When it comes to rotation from US to Europe, I think it's been a lot of interest investing in other countries outside of the Nordics in Europe. And that's also why we also want to turn on more countries for electronic trading in Europe during the quarter. But let's see about the flows. I mean, you know, quarter four was all in US and then quarter one was all out US. But I think over time, I think when everything comes down, I think US is still going to be interesting for our customers, for sure. And then the last question was lending. I mean, we have a very healthy loan to deposit levels. We have room to grow the lending books and both mortgage but mainly direct at the private banking, as you know, but definitely margin lending. But marginality is also a bit, I mean, it's been a bit risk off now due to the high volatility, but we expect that book to grow nicely if the markets come down a little bit.
And a final point on the cross border trading. Remember that in the Nordic markets, we also have four different currencies when any intra Nordic trading also generates the same type of FX as a US or European trade.
Thank you.
Great. We're going to try Martin from Honda's Mike and again see if he has Mike is working. Sorry,
I was wrestling with the zoom interface before. So I just wanted to ask on slide seven, the graph with VIX versus trading activity. So I guess the point of that chart is that trading and volatility correlates. But there are also exceptions, right, such as Q2 22, when Russia invaded Ukraine, when you saw volatility spike, but trading activity come down and so on. So are we looking at another quarter like this potentially in Q2 25, given the trade war? I mean, we can see trends of customers selling funds on a net basis, etc. Or is this still good volatility, quote unquote, in your view?
I mean, I think, as you see, it was the first week of April was a lot of activity. And I think short term volatility, unless it's a big crisis like the European war, I think that's good because it increases trading activity. But long term volatility is not good if it continues for many quarters, because some customers get worried that they lose a little bit of interest in savings and equities and funds. Thereby less customers in less net savings and less activity levels. So, yeah, short term volatility, good, very long term volatility, not good.
Okay, great. Thank you for that. And then another one, if I may. So I saw brokerage income in Norway was up 32% quarter on quarter to be compared with Sweden, for example, at more modest 19%. Is this a change in customer dynamics in Norway, which I think fund savings seems to have been more important historically, or is this more of a one off say, longer term equity investments were liquidated in this quarter in particular, do you think?
Now, I think we saw equity trading picking up in Norway, Norway was a little bit subdued last two quarters previous year. Or for previous year, due to also Norway market being a bit not growing that much. But I think it's really bigger focus on equity trading in Norway again, which is good.
Okay, excellent. And then I'm going to follow up on the fund capital, if I may. So growth in the proportion of fund capital allocated to Nordnet branded funds has been picking up. I just wanted to check what is driving this? Are your funds getting better or slash cheaper? Or is it down to regulation or marketing and so on?
No, I think it's I mean, you know, Nordnet branded funds are mainly index funds or fund a fund of index funds and customers, as we know, buy a lot of index funds and they like our portfolio is performing well and it's a good price as well. And our funder funds, the one funds where you can also choose risk levels also, also very popular. So I think we have a good match product wise and price wise for the customers.
Okay, great. Thank you. That's all for me.
Thank you.
Thank you, Martin. I'm going to take a written question from Nicholas at BMPX. He asks what you're thinking around offering spot crypto trading. Is that something your clients are asking for?
Today, as you know, we provide crypto trading versus certificates that are trackers that track the underlying asset. And that's been really booming market in Europe. It's a lot of trackers out there and good trackers as well. The physical application also low fees. And the upside the trackers is that you can also have them on the tax accounts on ISK and KF. But that said, I mean, especially now going into Germany where you have players with the spot trading in crypto is an area we look at. It's not top priority, priority, but it is something we look at.
Great. One more from Nicholas. He's asking the fund revenue margin has been resilient. What's driving this? Is the increased share of Nordnet funds driving margins higher?
Yeah, I mean, we see a shift still from active to passive, even if it's slowed down a bit. But the good thing now when the customer buy the index, the passive, they may not buy the Nordnet index where we have a higher margin, even though the price for the customer is good. We have a higher margin on those products. So that's a portion margin.
And also, I think specifically this quarter, we saw a bit of FX. The
uptick this year was a bit FX effect trading non-domestic funds.
More short term. OK, next question I want to take from Ian White at Autonomous. Ian, please go ahead.
Hi,
sorry, can you can you hear me, please? Yeah, I can hear you. I think we've taken my questions three from my side, please. First up, can you provide us with a sense as to how much of the net savings inflow is recurring in nature? I'm thinking about things like monthly investment plans, pension contributions, salary deposits. What's the kind of baseline level that you think would be resilient in sort of any market environment or in most market environments, say? That's question one. Secondly, I just wanted to follow up on mortgage lending. The macro environment has become a bit more favourable in Sweden. Why not seeing firmer volume growth there, please, over the last 12 months in terms of total mortgage lending? I think it down slightly year over year on the Swedish mortgages. So interesting just to understand some of the underlying dynamics there. Lastly, thank you for the helpful detail around FX impacts on savings capital. Can you just help us to understand the P&L sensitivity from an FX perspective? Am I right to think that the costs are mostly SEC, but the revenues are earned in the respective local currencies? Is that the correct way to think about it? Thank you.
Yeah, so when it comes to recurring net savings, it's roughly on 2.2 billion as a mix of pension premiums and monthly savings in funds. What we see is steady growth in this especially both in the pension and also in the monthly savings area where customers set up more monthly savings. So we have that as a fundamental, but of course we have a lot of other money coming in on top of that. When it comes to mortgage, we focus mortgage product to the private banking segment. If you have a certain amount of savings capital on the platform, you get a really, really good interest rate. It's a way for us to track and retain capital for the bigger customers. We are a bit selective there. We could of course go broader, but we know also that mortgage is a very sticky product. It's hard to scale up or down, or it's hard to scale down. Scale up, you can of course. So we're a bit careful how we play the mortgage development. But where we want to have room to grow is mortgage lending. So we want to not have constraints. We don't want to have constraints there, and we don't, but we're careful to secure that. When it comes to FX impact on our P&L, you're right. Cost of income is 30 per cent, so cost is only 30 per cent, and most of that cost is in Sweden. So we get an impact from the sector variation on revenue and on sales capital.
Got it. Thank you. Thank you, Ian. Next question comes from Andy Low at Citi. Please go ahead, Andy.
Hi guys. Hopefully you can hear me. Just one question and just a quick follow-up. So I'm curious, obviously we can see in the monthly stats how your platform deposits have been evolving, and you and Avanza have both seen quite a big increase in the last couple of months. I'm just curious if you could maybe give us a little bit of insight as to how that's been behaving over the past few weeks in volatile markets. You've previously said, Lars, that that is likely to sort of go up quite materially in volatile sort of risk-off environments. So is that the case? And then the follow-up is just on the crypto question that we had a few questions ago. I think last time you helpfully gave us a figure that was five per cent of the trades. One point
five per cent.
Yeah. Sorry, was it one point five per cent in Q2? Sorry, Q1?
Yeah, so it's about the same level. So looking at full year, last year was one point five per cent of the trades. It's a bit similar in quarter one, but we saw more more trades in Jan-Feb, but in March it really declined when also the crypto price declined quite a bit.
And what were the figures in Q3 and Q4? I remember them slightly differently. That's for the
full year. I don't remember quarter four specifically, Marcus, but we saw that the trading activity also of course went up after the Trump won the election. Quarter four was higher than the previous quarters. And if you look at quarter one this year, Jan-Feb was about the same level as quarter four, but considerably lower in March when the crypto prices dropped considerably.
Great. And then the deposit question.
Yeah, so as you know, it has been lower net buy in the more volatile environment, but still good high net savings and high dividends. And that's why we have good development deposits. Of course, the continued volatility is likely that the deposit will increase a bit, but let's see how the uncertainty plays out. It feels like a little bit less uncertainty now than anyway in the beginning of the month.
Super helpful. Thank you so much.
Great. Thank you. I think that was the last question, actually. So, we'll call it a day. Thank you so much for attending the presentation. And please visit our website, .netab.com or reach out to me if you have any questions. Thanks for your interest in Node.net. Have a nice day and goodbye.
Bye.