Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ)

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The presentation of the head of the bank's result for the full year and for Q4 2023. We put behind us a tumultuous year with escalating geopolitical instability, rising interest rates and also runaway inflation and a business cycle in decline. I find that the year for Handelsbank 2023 can be described as stable. The ROE was up to close to 16%, driven by an underlying growth of 37%. The income outperformed expenses and contributed to our CR ratio. As expected, our customers show good resilience in spite of an environment with higher interest rates, and the credit quality remains to be strong, with credit losses amounting to only 0.01%. The capital position of the bank is very solid, with a CET1 ratio of 18.8%, which is 1% above the target rate of the bank under normal circumstances, that is .3% above regulatory requirements. The robust financial position makes it possible for the board to propose a total dividend of 13 krona per share. 50% of that, 6.5 krona per share, is an extraordinary dividend. Over the year 2023, we've strengthened our customer offering in physical digital channels. We have in our local branches expanded our competences, capacities and mandates, and at the same time we're improving our app and the web. The customer satisfaction we see in the ratings that we have, it has gone up even further according to independent external surveys. Not at least the bank's robust business model, credit quality and financial position is reflected in the ranking as being one of the most stable banks according to leading rating agencies. So the bank has a position of strength. Looking at the results for the full year 2023, we can find that ROE was up to just under 16%. Total income was up with 24%, mainly due to the high interest rate situation, which has led to return on equity and liquidity reserves going up as the Swedish Riksbank increased its interest rates, in spite of lower margins for mortgages. Expenses underlying 8%, and that is explained with the development capacities increasing, and well since end of 2022 it's been stable. We've also increased our resources within AML and cyber risk. And of course, 2023 has been a year with generally high inflation and increased costs in all our home markets. CI ratio was down to 37.2%. Credit loss is low, 141 million, and that corresponds to a credit loss ratio of 0.01. All in all, we have operated profit going up with 37% to some 36 billion, which is the highest ever for the bank. Continuing with the Q4 2023, the profit was down somewhat compared to Q3. This is due to seasonal higher costs, ROE 15.2%, NII 2% adjusted for FX. Net fee commission income stayed more or less the same. Total income adjusted for FX was down with 1%. And compared to the previous quarter, we have to remember that NFT was unusually strong. Expenses were up 7% due to seasonal variations, and the CI ratio was up to 38%. For the third quarter, consecutively we had a credit loss ratio of 0%. All in all, the operating profit was down somewhat. And then if we look at our NII for the quarter, we see that it was up 2%. I've already mentioned that, adjusted for FX. Volumes stayed relatively neutral, which is natural when we see a crunch in monetary policy and a slowdown in the business cycle. We've also seen that the amortization rate for private and corporate customers remain at the historically seen relatively high levels. Our customers act in a rational manner. They amortize as much as they can. Another pattern that we have seen for some time now. And in the quarter, we had the final settlement for the fee deposit guarantee that contributed with 97 million. The adjusted NII is explained by the margins recovering compared to the previous quarter, but it is clear that they leveled out over the fall. Net fee commission income. Apart from the pandemic period, it has been growing steadily. Savings related business is two thirds of the net fee commission income, and we see the same trend that we have for one and a half years. In spite of volatile stock exchanges, we have a stable net inflow from our customers who want to save the money with us. If we look at the savings business in Sweden, we have a long positive trend that we've had since 2010, if I remember correctly, and it stays strong. Our market share of mutual funds in Sweden is about 12 percent. But since 2010, as I've said, we have had a market share of around 25 percent of the net inflow that we've seen in the market for savings in funds. The savings business is and will remain a very growth important growth engine for the bank. And we see that this is something that builds a stable value over time. It's good for our customers. In addition to good performance in our funds, another success factor has been that our customers appreciated that we have a sustainability focus. Today, 95 percent of the fund volume that we offer is categorized in the two highest categories in the .D.R. and the disclosure requirements that we have in articles eight and nine. Another important explanation for the success of the bank is that we have a strong way of reaching our customers with digital services, but also local strong branches in our home markets and savings advisory services. A natural part of the customer meeting and particularly for a private private banking customer, a good relationship with the bank is decisive. Of course, all private banking customers do not necessarily live in our major cities where we traditionally have had these services. Many of these existing and potential customers there in other parts of the country. And that is why we the last few years have strengthened our local personal offerings so that customers can now meet, for example, a private banker advisor locally, local branches where they live or work. And this might seem elementary, but it is a way of working that stands out in the market today. And we see that it drives the inflow, customer satisfaction and business for the bank.

When it comes to expenses, they were up by barely seven percent and follow the normal seasonal pattern where we usually see a rise in costs in Q4 as a consequence of the development of profitability in the bank Compared to our competitors during the quarter, we allocated 83 million Kronor to Octagon and this effect was basically entirely balanced by positive effects effects of 85 million Kronor. The staff costs just as for currency and Octagon and contributed by two percent to the total increase in costs and other costs were up as a usual consequence of higher activity compared to the preceding quarter that included the summer months. If we look at net credit losses, they are almost non existent. At the same time, the management add on remained unchanged over the quarter and amounted to just over 600 million. And this bank and has historically, especially in periods of economic decline, reported significantly lower net credit losses than the rest of the banking industry. That is not a coincidence. It is a result of the structure of our lending portfolio and a consistent, strict approach to risk. Also, the business model with a strong local presence with decentralized operating mode means that the bank can identify situation at an early stage and take action when necessary. And we are very confident in the quality of our lending portfolio. We can describe the bank as having five parts. We have our four at home markets and then we have the central functions that have as their ultimate responsibility to provide support and to our business and ensure compliance. If we start by looking at the UK, they now represent 17 percent of the group operating profit and the C.I. ratio is just below 48 percent and return on allocated capital is 21 percent. The UK is the country where we have the highest level of customer satisfaction and an offering that really stands out on the local market. Local decision making and accessibility to advice experts is very rare in the UK now. And recently we've seen a strong recovery in our profits. But at the same time, we see a decline both in private and corporate lending. The degree of amortization continues to be high and the demand for new loans on the market remains low in general. The strong credit rating of the bank, however, continues to contribute to good inflows of corporate deposits that were up by three percent over the year. Going forward, our focus is to continue to upgrade our offering in our digital offering and to continue to always enhance local competence in our offices around the UK. Today we hold a very small market share and we have great potential to grow significantly over time. But we never scramble to get volume. We don't have short term incentives like bonus. We don't stress to create volume. We work with a long term approach and focus on creating strong good relationships with local customers. And that's how we maintain our strong credit quality, growth and profitability over time. If we now look at Norway, Norway represents just over seven percent of the operating profit in the group. The ratio is 44 percent and return on allocated capital is just over nine percent. In recent years, we have significantly invested in IT and business development to enhance our digital offering, to extend our very much appreciated advisory services in our offices. We have a strong credit portfolio in Norway and customer satisfaction is high and we've made significant progress when it comes to enhancing our offering. But we've had to up our staffing, especially within AML and IT development in recent years, which has had had an impact on the C.I. ratio and the return on allocated capital. The next step is now to increase our focus on enhancing profitability in Norway. And therefore we have undertaken an overview where we will on a regular basis see where there's potential to increase profitability. When we look at the Netherlands, that represents three percent of the group operating profit. And the C.I. ratio is 47 percent and return on allocated capital is 17 percent. In the Netherlands, our operations are somewhat niche where we focus on mortgages and financing of real estate. When we look to the future, the plan is to continue to operate a relatively simple, focused on profitable operation in Sweden. Sweden today represents three quarters of the group operating profit. The C.I. ratio is 28 percent and the return on allocated capital is 18 percent for the full year 2023. Over the year, we have continued to enhance our customer offering by increasing resources, competence and decision making power in our advisory services across our 206 offices in Sweden. At the same time, our savings business is growing, as I mentioned before, but we have somewhat declining volumes on the market overall, both in lending and deposits, both in corporate and households. Of course, this has an impact in the Swedish organization. We can see that we can improve efficiency in the business support aspects. And this is addressed by having a new organization for those central parts of our operation, which will be put into place in coming months. Last week, I received a telephone call for our manager in Gothenburg who had decided to do something as strange as opening a new banking office. And I thought that sounded amazing. And the new office will be in Huvvås in Gothenburg. And if you know where that is, you just get in your car, you take your bicycle and you go 10 kilometers to the south on 158 Road. And then on the south, you can see new Huvvås. This decision was, of course, based on great demand from the customers and therefore a great business potential for the bank to place our advisor in that local setting. Sometimes people think that digitalization has made local banking obsolete. I'm convinced that the opposite is true. There is absolutely no issue with a customer wanting to do their banking business on their own and the app and using all the digital channels available to them. But at times you want personal advice from a human being, a local specialist, an expert. Perhaps you want to discuss your first mortgage or get expert advice on savings, banking, pensions, risk management or corporate transactions. I think that the local and digital offering that they complement each other very well and are enhanced offer to enhance local offices and digital offering is now an even greater competitive edge than before. And we can see that reflected in the high level of customer satisfaction in 150 years. We've always adapted to customers demand and wishes when it comes to where and how we meet and interact. And it's an obviously important thing to the bank to this day. And that is why we've opened this new branch in who was finally when it comes to central aspects of the bank in after the strategic shift in last year's where the bank has left countries and markets where we don't see enough potential for profitability and growth. It's now natural to increase our focus on making central parts of the bank more efficient and to consolidate them. Our tradition is based on a simple organization without unnecessary structures and inefficiency and decentralized responsibility to avoid inefficiency and unnecessary costs. We really have to be mindful of our costs like any other business. We've now launched an overview to identify and take action against costs in our central functions. And therefore we will enhance our competitive edge as a consequence of the strong financial position and generation of capital. The board now proposes to the AGM an ordinary dividend of six point five Kroner per share and an extra dividend of six point five Kroner per share. So in total, 13 Kroner per share, significant geopolitical tension and macroeconomic uncertainty is a fact to ensure that the market trusts us as an attractive partner. We have an active and stable counterpart with the full capacity to meet potential increase in credit demand. The assessment is that in the current situation, it is motivated to have a .E.T. one ratio that is higher than the bank's normal target range with one point three percentage points above regulatory requirement. The .E.T. one ratio after deducting the proposed dividend amounted to eighteen point eight percent, which corresponded to four percentage points above the FSA minimum requirement to adapt the bank's capital level to the usual target range of the bank. Our intention is to accept anticipated dividends to align the .E.T. one ratio at four point oh percentage points above the regulatory requirement. Finally, the bank stands strong and that is crucial to build and cultivate customer relations and drive growth over time and to build stable shareholder value over time. It appears that in the year 2023, we will again reach our goal to have higher profitability compared to the average to comparable market at home markets. And we handle expenses with discipline and we will increase our focus on this in coming years. The customers show their appreciations for us. And last but not least, our credit quality is good, as it should be, in spite of upheaval in the world around us. And that means that we continue with the long term stable trend we've seen for many years with an average value creating per year of almost 15 percent for our shareholder. So thank you very much for listening to me. And now we'll take a short break before we go to the Q&A. Thank you for now.

Welcome back, everyone, to the Q&A session. Present at this call are Michael Green, CEO, Carl Sederkjöld, CFO, and myself, Peter Grabe, head of Investor Relations. Before commencing the session, we would express our usual reminder that we appreciate if you limit your questions to one at a time per person. This in order for all participants to get the opportunity to ask questions. Of course, you're welcome to step back in the queue for follow ups. With those words, we hand back to the operator as we're ready to take on the first question.

Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. We will now go to the first question. One moment, please. And your first question comes from the line of Magnus Andersson from ABGSE. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. Good morning. And thanks, first of all, for the increased clarity on capital and the target there for the end of 2024. I was just wondering, I mean, you keep 100 basis points, extra management buffer above your target interval due to an uncertain environment. If I look at your own economist's forecasts for 2025, they expect around 2% GDP growth. In such an environment, should we then expect you to go down to your ordinary interval in 2025? And related to that, if the environment would start to improve significantly in the second half, I mean, your interval now is 2 to 400. Could you be a bit more, could you be adapting your level towards the end of this year already, depending on how things evolve in the second half?

Thanks, Magnus, for the question. Well, I think the bank has obviously proven for many, many decades that we like to run a very conservative and long-term approach. So we think it's definitely reasonable to run with plus one at this time. We will review this decision yearly. But for us, it is really, really important to put us in a position where we are the most stable bank, where we can be viewed from rating agencies, from media, from clients, from all of the society to be the most stable bank. So yearly we will review it. It's hard for us to make a comment on what kind of numbers we need to see to drop it back to the normal. But the normal range is still one to three.

Okay. In terms of risk weighted asset trajectory, then, could you help us a bit with the building blocks there in terms of volume, migration, Basel IV? And we've discussed the IRB model implementation in the UK in the past. Yes.

Yes. Thanks for that question as well. Well, first of all, obviously volumes, you're as good as we are at projecting them. But obviously we have seen slow growth lately, but we will see what happens if rates drops back to lower levels once again. Going into the more technical details, yes, we've seen quite a large negative migration on volumes to stage two. That has meant that most likely we'll have recalibration of the model, implying lower RWAs, all LSEQA. As we've guided on before, we don't see any major headwinds going into BAL4 and we don't have any change in that one. When it comes to the IRB of UK, yes, as we've been guided on, we're working on that one. And the best estimate is that we might have some difference in 2026. So we can't foresee in a major headwind in RWA going into this year.

OK, thank you very much.

Thank you. We will now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Nicholas McBeed from DMB. Please go ahead.

Good morning. So a question to Michael on strategy. Given your long history with Handelsbanken, it would be interesting to hear your view on what of the traditional distinguishing features of the Handelsbanken model you think are worth preserving also today and what is not really relevant or optimal in this more digitized banking industry. So I'm thinking of all the ideas of John Wallander, such as the absence of projects and business plan, having profit centers at the branch office level and a slow moving and cautious approach to IP investment.

Right. So thank you for the question. And I so if you look back on how we've built a profitable bank and with a very strong balance sheet, it all starts with the ability and the skill to choose the right customers. And we've done that with a strong focus on our branches and our way of perform business on a local level. So my view is that to be able to to deliver satisfied customers and understand who who comes which customers we will bank with, it starts in a branch. And that's how we also steer the bank. But obviously, and that's a given, we also to to in in in addition to that, we obviously have to have strong digital solutions for our customers. And we do have that. So I'm I'm more into the to strengthen our our decentralized local banking approach. And I think in in general terms right now, when we see such an such a difficult times for many of in many countries and in Sweden as well, we see a strong need from our customers to really meet with a with a with a living person to speak with him or her about issues that they might have. So to comfort and also give the right solutions to to customers in this environment, which is quite quite difficult. Actually, we've noticed that the the demand for person to person discussions in terms of savings and also how to manage their mortgage situation or their housing issues and for for corporates also to discuss with us locally with our broad competence in our branches and also with the with the specialist giving the good advice for their for their business going forward. So strong decentralized decision taking low locally, strong customer focus, long term relationships and their ability and the right to to choose the the the customer that suits us best, where we can be really interesting to do business from from a customer perspective. And that's normally corporates with strong balance sheets and shields and and a good PNL PNL and with a good strong PNL on and on the on the private side. People who have have a larger economic environmental around them than a normal regular person. That's normally how it works with us. So more of that. OK,

perfect.

Thank you. Sorry, I might add also we also need to off. We need to be cautious about our cost. All companies need to manage cost very prudent and we need to strengthen ourselves a bit there to be more prudent and very careful about the cost we need for to really focus on the things that that makes sense for customers going forward.

Thank you. We will now go to our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Andreas Harkinson from SEB. Please go ahead.

Thanks and morning, everyone. So a question to Mr. Green again. On the cost side, you said that you need to to look at central costs. Could you tell us a little bit? Is it I mean, we've seen quite a bit of IT projects over the last couple of years. We've seen some business lines growing. That's that's more central units. And then we've seen staff numbers picking up in the total group. But can you tell us a little bit what type of of error that is it that you are going off then? If it's just central staff, how big is that number today? What's the potential actually on only that store for some bigger cuts that are needed to bring costs down?

Right. So thank you for for the question, Andreas. And first of all, we've been through a couple of years now where we've focused the bank. We have exited a number of of of international business. And we've also re we remade, if you put it that way, the Swedish and the UK business where we went from regions to to count counties and districts. And we've done that to strengthen our our local offering, as I just mentioned before, and we will continue to do that. But we have not really come into the to our head office department. So I think it's very natural for us now and and and rational to take it to to that area as well. So what we've done and communicated this morning that I will still as the CEO of the bank still be operational responsible for the Swedish business. And by doing that, we will enable the the group central departments and the Swedish central departments to to merge and to make sure that they will take away take out work that's been done in both areas and also focus on what's what needs to be delivered from a central department. And that's going to be done in five of our central departments. On top of that, you're you're focusing a little bit on the IT side. We've now also given the the mandate to the head of IT to to really look into and and work with the how much output the bank needs to to go forward. And I, as you mentioned, we've we've been increasing our investments in IT over the last couple of years. I will not be surprised if we will slow down that a little bit. Due to the fact that we we need to make sure that all the development we do is customer focused as much as we can and also is done in an efficient way and also on on the demand of of the business. So we'll see what's going to happen there. So the that's going to be one of the tasks for him to go going forward.

And do you think that later on this year, maybe time of Q1 Q2 that you will come out with somewhat of a more formal plan restructural plan or is it just going to be quarter by quarter with his small improvements?

So when I've when I grew up in the bank and we had a cost cost situation, which were in a slightly different way than it is right now, we we were very good at actually working on a day to day on day to day with custom with our cost side being very cautious. I would I would be I would not foresee that I will come back with a number in in cost and in or in headcount. That's going to be something we work on from a day to day business. But I will ensure you that we will have a stronger focus on that side going forward this year. But it's not going to be any numbers as far as I see it.

OK, thank you. Thank you. We'll now go to the next question. And your next question comes from the line of one moment, please. Sophie Peterson from JP Morgan, please go ahead.

Yeah, hi, this is the feed from JP Morgan. So just staying on on the on the cost comment. So I guess we're not going to see any cost targets or any any big kind of cost plans being announced. But how should we think about kind of restructuring costs, intangible costs and kind of also there has been quite a lot of press articles around cyber security fraud. How are you addressing these and should we kind of expect any one of cost items to come in the coming quarters? And also just a follow up on on the four percent capital buffer. Does the four percent capital buffer have anything to do with your credit rating? I noticed that one of your or one of the rating agencies has kind of negative outlook for you. So is there any correlation between the four percent buffer and your credit ratings? Thank you.

Thanks, Sophie, for the question. Well, as Michael said, I mean, we we we're really going to work a lot with the cost culture and bring it back. But we we will try to do that gradually. So you shouldn't foresee any number coming out restructuring package, et cetera. Time will tell. And yes, of course, cyber security and all of this, the total FCP area is an area, obviously, where banks will invest quite a bit. So, of course, we will keep working on that one. But that will be included in the rest as well. No, the four percent, you shouldn't view that as as any as any view on the negative credit watch at all. It's just to to run the bank very long term conservative. I mean, we we obviously have a history of not needing to we've been our balance sheet. We've been able to support our balance sheet fully internally. And that's really what we want to do. So we want to place ourselves in a position where we when when things normalize, then we'll go down to us the normal target range. But until then, we think it's feasible to run with the one percentage points about it.

But the credit rating agencies or at least one of them, as far as I understand, is quite unhappy with your very low stage three coverage, which again fell and now is only 16 percent. You know, we should not view this low stage three coverage in conjunction with the four percent buffer. I

don't. That's not my view as you're posting it. Our view is that we have a very good discussion with the credit agencies. Yes, of course, they were putting us on a negative watch when the when the overall macro climate within the world and within the real estate sector were troublesome. Our discussions with all of the rating agencies has been extremely constructive. So you shouldn't put any correlation to any stage three reserves in that.

OK, thank you.

Thank you. We'll now take the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Namita Santani from Barclays. Please go ahead. Morning.

Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, when you map out Handelsbanken's business in Sweden, Norway, UK and the Netherlands and buy business product, where do you see the growth potential for the business in the next year or two? I guess I'm asking this because I wonder if you're going to do a proper strategic review of the businesses, not just the cost. And secondly, just to Michael, are you going to have time to be both the CEO and to look after the Swedish division? Thanks very much.

Thank you. I'll start with the last question. And I've asked you probably are aware of many of you. We've if you look back in the history of the bank, this it's most of the time the CEO has also been head of the Swedish business. So that's nothing new for us. It's just kind of a normal way of taking care of the business. And but of course, I'm not a superhero, so I need to have help. And I do have that. So we will we will arrange for for and structure people around me so they can help me in the in the day to day business area. But I would also I would also like to to say that almost all of the business is taking care locally and around the country in the country. It's it's not that we don't work where so sorry. Sorry. The way we work is not that everything has to come up to the CEO for decision. That's not the way we do it. So people are very skilled in decision making since many, many years. And they they they do it in a very good way locally. So I would assume that the day to day questions of business from it from my perspective is going to be very, very few because they're so very well trained and very skilled. And they know their customers so well out in the in our branches. So that's not going to be an issue. Now back to the first question. I almost lost that it was the growth perspective. First of all, I think banking in general will grow based on the the expansion of the real economy. And it's very macro macro. And the macro is very important. So what we but we can also of course do our our the best we can in terms of getting more customers on board and work with all the products and the solutions that we offer them all around in our in our home markets. And as you can see in the in the on the slide, we the market share in the UK are fairly low right now. So we do have a potential there to grow. That's my opinion. Also in the Netherlands and Norway, we have announced, as I said, we need to work through the the business structure in Norway so they will come out in more with with high return on equity than they perform right now. So it depends a little bit on what you mean by growing. We will we will always grow with profitability. So we're not volume chasers. So we need to really make sure that we go for that with the right customers with the right solutions and we do it in a cost efficient way over the year.

Thanks very much. Thank you. We'll now take the next question. And the next question comes from the line of Richard from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Hi and good morning. Following on the cost there, you mentioned, Michael, that you're currently doing a review of your Norwegian business. Maybe a small follow up there if you could just mention if it's primarily related to also support functions or if it has a broader scope in that review.

So I didn't get the last sentence. Come again.

If it's the Norwegian review, if it's primarily related to the support functions or if it has a broader scope.

No, I think when you grow the bank over the years, it's so important that we do it with a profit with a profitability that comes along with it. So we need to make sure that we have a balance sheet that's in balance and you know that we grow profitability comes mostly from the saving side and the mutual fund side. So we I think I'm not going to go into in details where what they need to do in Norway, but in general and especially in Norway, we need to find out a way that we balance the product meets that we deliver so we can grow with profitability. And that's a work that's going to be needed to be done in the next couple of months.

Thanks. And then follow up on more nitty gritty question on slide five in the presentations on the margin of funding and contribution on NIA of two hundred forty five million QAQ. If you could possibly add some flavor to the subcomponents here in terms of lending margin development versus the positive margins in the quarter.

Yes, you know, we never disclose a split between lending margin and deposit margins and it's simply because they are interconnected. So they're both moving parts. So we don't guide on that detail level, unfortunately.

OK, but is it possible to say anything about the larger moving parts broadly speaking?

Yes, we can. Yes, we can definitely say some parts of around it. I mean, we've as of the end of the year, obviously, we've seen slow growth. So the volume contribution has been fairly slow. Then when it comes to the marginal development, we still see that NIA hasn't topped. It is feasible. Yes, to expect it to to top at these rate levels. Time will tell. We we have we move a bit around the volumes and margins now. But we've seen obviously that the deposit deposit volumes moves fairly much in line with the with the with the lower demand for loans. So that's all good. And yeah, I mean, as as we've been saying before, if rates start moving down, we think there will be movements around the lending margins and deposits cost. But but that time will tell. So that's more or less it.

OK, thanks. Thank

you. We'll now go to the next question. And the next question comes from the line of Johan Eklund from UBS. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Just trying to come back to the cost side and and I guess going back to Andrea's question, trying to gauge, I guess, at least what the addressable cost base is in central functions. When I look at the results, is it fair to take the internally purchased and sold services as a broad figure for the size of the cost base that's being addressed? Just to kind of try and get a sense for what what the magnitude could be here and then maybe relating to costs and your comments on income growing faster than cost, which was, I guess, a key trigger that your predecessor flagged for for lack of octagonal contributions in the past. If we ignore the rate benefits that you had, are you happy with the kind of relationship between the growth in the top line and cost? Because it looks to me like you still seeing cost grow faster.

Thanks, Johan. Let me start at least. As Michael said, we will work gradually with the cost base, but to put it in relation, so you got a ballpark number of what kind of ratios not talking about the cost savings, but how large proportion of the organization this will affect. We have 12,000 staff in the bank. It roughly affects 4,100 of them, which is a third then roughly, and it do affects 55% of the cost base. So that's that's the base we're working with, at least. And but then again, we will gradually do the analysis and we'll see what the conclusion will be.

So just coming back on the question if I'm happy, so I'll I'll you don't know me yet, but I'm not. I'm not happy. I'm never really happy, but I sometimes I am sorry. But the it's not my job to be happy. And I see underlying you. You can you could tell. And you've heard banks reporting in Sweden prior to us that margins, customer margins on the mortgage side, for example, is is rapidly turning down during 2023. So and that's at the same time, we've we've been facing your cost inflation that that really is is from a country perspective. And another hurdle, but it was it was a long time since we had those numbers to to cope with. So, of course, as always, being cautious with our cost, being cautious to what we deliver and we should just do the things we need to do to make business go forward. And we need to really business focus all of the bank, not just the branches and the counties. All the bank need to be business focused in a bit more way than I think we are right now. And being a business focused, meaning that you you explore and you question your your role deliver your own deliverances and what we really need to make sure that customers are happy that we can increase our business. And that's what's going to happen right now. We focus on on business for the for the whole for the whole bank and we will give the the branches even the the ability to really choose their customers and their counterparties and be in strongly making their decisions with with broad competence and specialists out in the all of our 2000 and soon seven branches in Sweden and all over the in our home markets.

Thank

you. Thank you. We will now take the next question. And the next question comes from the line of Ricardo Rivera from Media Bank. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple of clarification, if I may. First of all, when you say in the outlook for anticipated dividends, the key for the 400 basis buffer that an interim dividend should be rated as an interim dividend at some point. Probably I'm getting it wrong, but I just want to hear it from you. The second point I wanted to ask you, I've never I don't see the word buyback mentioned anywhere. I might be wrong, but I haven't seen it. So I imagine that all your capital distributions is assumed to be cash and has been related somehow to that. The 400 basis point instead of the 300 at the top of the range. Is that anything to do with CRP exposures?

Thanks. Should I start? I don't know if I heard your first question correctly, but I think you were asking around. Can we see an interim dividend? Yeah, I'm looking. And yes, what we said is that we will review this plus four percent yearly. So we don't close any doors, but most likely the next review then is up a year from now. Then the the the yes, you are correct. You haven't seen anything about share buybacks as of as of saying that we will do it as you know. Yes, we we we will ask for we will ask for permission to perform share buybacks from the AGM still. And that's in the report. But no, the the total distribution of the two shareholders today is going to be is proposed to be with dividends. Then we will go in for what we will look at what's best at that time. The the extra percentage points does not have anything to do with CRE. No, it's rather has. I mean, we want to run the bank long term and run it conservatively. And we always want to be in the best position to support the real economy and our clients.

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Thank you. We will now go to the next question. One moment, please. And the next question comes from the line of Marcus Sangren from Kepler Schiver. Please go ahead.

Good morning. I guess we've already touched a bit about this, the questions I have already. But if I can put them anyway. So in terms of return on equity, you aim to be above the average of your peers. And we've talked a bit about costs and talked about return levels in Norway. But do you see the I mean, the main lever to get there is that to increase a share of capital light product offering? I commission income or is it capital or is it costs? So that's my first question. And then secondly, about capital again, then I mean, if you consider your credit loss provisions to be where they should and you you expect low regulatory headwinds and not much of GDP growth in the in the year to come. What is really the hundred bits on top of your high end of the interval for place? Thanks.

So if I may start with the with the first question to so to run a bank as hundreds bank and and aiming for and delivering a higher rent of return on equity than than our peers. It's not it's it's it's doing everything that you mentioned. We obviously we work on in markets which are very what do you say? And that's transpirable. Sorry, you know what the price is. The price is given in a way in most of our products. And and and we need to be there. So price is given. It's a transparent and open market with high competitiveness. So that's where we need to be. And and and to be able to to perform on our corporate goal. Obviously, we need to be more efficient than our cost competitors. And we also need to have higher customer satisfaction to really make sure that we can continue to do good business with the right customers going forward. On top of that, obviously, we need to be capital efficient and we need to have a balance sheet that really is is prudent. And and and and you know, we risk avert. So we we need to make sure that we're always going to be the right and a very, very strong counterpart for both our customers and for the society as well. So it's all of those things that you mentioned. Be cautious and very efficient with our cost side. Work hard on delivering happy, satisfied customers and focus most on the capital light product, as you mentioned. That's what they do all around at the branches, helping our customers with their savings and pensions and things like that. And and of course, have a balance sheet in a very strong shape.

OK, thanks. And then the second one on the on the capital side,

please. Well, as I will keep reiterating the answer, I mean, you know, as we run the bank long term, we want we want to run it risk conservative. We will not at each time try to optimize the capital structure. We don't see any stress in that one. So being in a situation to support society and the real economy and our clients, that's really important for us. So we don't have a stress moving down, but once things normalize, we will move down into the normal target range.

OK, thanks.

Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one and one on your telephone keypad. We will now take the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Andreas Harkensen from SEB. Please go ahead.

Yes, I thanks for the follow up. Just on asset quality, I mean, you reported for the fully around hundred forty million in loan losses. And as someone alluded to, you have a low coverage ratio on your stage three, which indicates to me that you're quite comfortable with the situation. And when I then look at consensus estimates for twenty twenty four, the street is looking for over two billion of loan losses for twenty twenty four. Could you tell us when you look at that number, what scenario you need to see to go that high?

I mean, looking historically, obviously, we're extremely pleased with our asset quality. We're extremely pleased with the way we've been working on it for many, many years now, improving our client base, work with more securitized lending, et cetera. So we've been doing quite a lot to actually structurally improve the asset quality in our view. Having said that, then obviously the credit losses we do end up with, they tend to be do syncretic, so they tend to be very, very hard to predict. So I think your question by essence is then hard to answer. So we can just see that that obviously the analysts you you you struggle with putting with predicting a very low credit loss. And so so I don't have any answer to what needs to happen, but most likely need a syncretic problem once again.

OK, thanks.

Thank you. We'll now take the next question. And your next question comes from the line of Andrew Coombs from City. Please go ahead.

I might ask a couple if that's OK. I missed out on the first round. The first question would be coming back to asset quality. I appreciate there are a number of moving parts here. You're looking at the impact of the better quality on new loans compared to exit. You've got the updated macro assumptions, which is taking a step back. If you look over the last two years, you've seen some of the biggest increase in stage three migration compared to any other European bank. Your stage three coverage ratio has dropped from 24 to 16 percent. The stage two coverage ratio has dropped. How long? I appreciate it's a function of office nine and various other things, but how much longer can you continue to see a decline in those coverage ratios? And where do you think they could bottom? That's the first question. And my second question is just on the corporate deposit base. I appreciate there's always seasonality around Q4. But what do you expect for corporate deposit flows and your own market share going into 2024 and any implications that has for pricing dynamics? Thank you.

Well, thanks for the questions. Well, first on asset quality, I think it's it's important then to once again go back to the to the more or less rulebook and look why do we why is the volume moved to stage two? That's obviously if we see if we see a decrease or an increase actually in the probability of default by two and a half times, then we need to move the volume. So let's say then that, you know, our starting position, we we've lent to some real estate companies in a really good shape. They have low loan to values and they have good ICR levels. But when rates are moving up in some cases, three times, four times, perhaps, of course, that will hit the cash flow outlook. And in essence, then it's definitely reasonable and feasible. And what we want to see is that the the ratings are adjusted due to obviously the cost of carrying the loan is higher. So that that requires that we move the loan to stage two. Having said that, then, if we have if we have collateral in place at the very good proportion and low LTV levels, that's that's the reason you see decreasing stage two or reserves dropping. So I think it's I don't have any answer to your question. How low could they drop? But but but the way you should read it is that they shouldn't be seen as a signal to that we see problem loans there. It's just it's just a consequence of increasing rates quickly. And then then the cash flow outlook becomes more challenging. But if we have collateral in place, we that's that's the reason behind it. And then the corporate deposits, I mean, we always see corporate deposits moving down over year end. And I think you can go back and look at the outlook previous years to have a good guidance to see what the outcome should be. So so so there's nothing this year which makes our challenge. If if if there is something structural in that development, we just see that as a one of cleaning up the balance sheet over year end.

Thank you. I will now go to the next question. One moment, please. And your next question comes from the line of Ricardo Rivera from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Thanks a lot for taking this quick follow up. OK, on capital again, if this this year you're going to take you're going to have 400 basis buffer. And then if the situation from what I understand, if the situation kind of normalizes, you know, you're going to get back to the traditional 100 to 300. So your internal target is going to shoot down. That means that the payout ratio should go above 100 percent because you will steer down the common the common equity. Now, is that possible or maybe is that acceptable in Sweden? The payout ratio goes 100 percent or above 100 percent.

Well, thanks for the question. I think, first of all, putting it in perspective, I mean, we're a bank who's been running for 150 years. We built a business model where we really want to be self sufficient and self dependent. And we've we've never taken support from from government nor from equity owners. So and we put really pride in that one. So you should really think that the plus four percent that is a very prudent way of managing our our business model. Having said that, if we now guide ourselves and I should elude as well, we we are actually we direct and indirect taxes and fees. We're actually supporting the society with a larger share than than we're supporting our shareholders with. So we think we're really society beneficial bank. Having said that, then, yes, I mean, theoretically, if if PNL is moving, if if PNL keep rolling in that register at really steady levels and we see risk weighted assets dropping. Yes, theoretically, you could see a dividend share, which is very, very high. And on the contrary, if we start growing quite a lot, if we start seeing volume growth and if you start seeing structural or W.A. headwinds, it will adjust lower than the dividend share. So it is up to you more or less to to to make a prediction now of the outcome of the underlying movements. And then we will try staying at plus four percent over the year.

That's clear. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Thank you. We will now take our final question for today. And your final question comes from the line of Jacob from Autonomous. Please go ahead.

I thank you, Jacob, for autonomous. Just a quick follow up on the question. Could you just comment a little bit about how you see the moving parts as rates come down if we go to more of a two percent rate level of next two years, just in terms of your thinking on lending margins, deposits and if there are any other positions or your balance sheet that would impact the move that.

Thank you. Now, as we mentioned before, we don't guide on a basis of splitting out deposit margins and lending margins. We refrain from doing that. So when when rates potentially might drop, I think as always, and just like rates were increasing, we're afraid non providing guidance for the simple reason that there are so many moving factors behind and behind an overall and I margin. And at the end of the day, it's, of course, competition that decides both on the lending side as well as on the deposit side. And they are indirectly connected to each other that ultimately decides on where the overall margin goes. And since we don't know how competition will behave as rates, if rates come down as price into the market, we refrain from providing any detailed guesses on how that will develop.

But what we can say is obviously that we have seen the movement from transaction account over to savings accounts declining. So that seems to have stabilized. And yes, obviously, if we go back long term looking at the rate levels we've seen, I mean, we actually have quite feasible margin levels overall. Time will tell what the competitive landscape will look like. And as Michael said, our branch managers and people out at the branches, they will adapt to this level and then we'll see what the outcome will be.

OK, thank you. Thank you. I will now hand the call back for closing.

So thank you for taking your time and joining our Q&A session. I hope you will find you found our answers good and useful for all of you and looking forward to meeting you going forward. Thank you so much for today. Goodbye.