Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ)

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first Q1 presentation here at Scandic. As said by the speaker, my name is Jens Mathisen. I'm the CEO of Scandic, and I'm here together with Per, our CFO, and together we will walk you through the quarter. But let's start to dive into the presentation. Please, let's go to page two. We have a good start to the year and we deliver a solid first quarter with improved both revenues and results. Net sales improved by 3% and organic growth by close to 4%. It's also pleasing to see that our focus on efficiency and cost control is clearly reflected in the strengthened profitability in this quarter. The performance was also driven by overall good demand across our markets and also the calendar effects with Easter falling in April this year compared to March last year. In February, we hosted a capital market day where we presented our strategy for 2030. We are maintaining a steady momentum in executing on that plan. And later in this presentation, I will provide a brief update on the progress and some of our key initiatives for this year. The first quarter is also seasonally the smallest. It's representing a low portion of the full year result. That's why it's also very pleasing to see that April has started off well and that bookings for the spring and summer are good. Even better than at the same time last year. And of course, I will give you some more comments on the outlook also later in this presentation. We remain mindful of the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on our markets. And while it's still early and the situation may evolve, I want to emphasize that based on current booking trends and cancellation rates, we have not seen any impact on our business. That said, we are closely monitoring development across our markets to ensure we can act quickly if needed. All in all, a decent start to the year with a promising outlook as well. So please turn to page three. We deliver a good result with an adjusted EBITDA of Swedish Krona 101 million, which is up from 33 million in the same quarter last year. This corresponds to an improved margin of 2.2% compared to 0.7% last year. The result includes 43 million in one-off, which is related to provisions for pandemic-related state aid in Denmark. Excluding 1.0, we more than doubled the results to 59 million, which is also an improved margin of 1.3%. Per will, of course, share more insights on the financial performance later on in this presentation. Please turn to page 4. Here you can see the market occupancy rate for the first quarter this year compared to the same period last year across the Nordic countries. We experienced an overall good market during the quarter with occupancy levels in each country being higher or on par for every month compared to the same period last year. The timing of ISA contributes positively to demand in March as it falls in April this year compared to March last year. Scandic's occupancy rate was 55.1%. This was slightly higher than the average market occupancy of 54.4%. Please turn to page five. This is market data showing average room rates for Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark indexed to the corresponding month in 2019. At fixed currency rates, the market average room rates continued to develop positively during the quarter, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Scandic's average room rate declined slightly compared to last year, and when adjusted for currency effects, the development was more or less flat. This was mainly due to the weak price development we saw in Finland with the impact, especially of the events that are going on in Vantaa, where increased capacity compared to last year has put some pressure on rates. That said, demand in Finland continued to recover, indicating that the market are stabilizing with a promising also for the future. Please turn to page six. Here you can see the market REVPAR development index to corresponding month in 2019. At fixed currency rates, the market REVPAR in the quarter grew by 5.7% year-on-year. Scandic's REVPAR increased by 5.8% compared to last year, and at fixed currency rates by 6.7%. So all in all, the year has gotten off to a very good start. Please turn to page 7. where you can see the pipeline. During the quarter, we signed an agreement for a new hotel with 214 rooms in Berlin, with planned opening in the second half of 2026. And following the takeover, we will operate nine hotels in Germany with close to 3,000 rooms. We are working with a clear focus on growing our hotel portfolio There's a strong will to do business in the market, and we are involved in many discussions and negotiations right now. This gives me very good confidence in our growth targets for the entire portfolio. By the end of the quarter, we had 2,734 rooms in the net pipeline. That is also corresponding to roughly 5% of our portfolio. Please turn to page 8. Here for a brief update on some of our key initiatives for 2025. As we have highlighted, we see potential to further strengthen our commercial capabilities and become more efficient. Soon we will launch our new website and app, both designed to enhance the guest journey and make it better, more simple and smoother to choose Scandic over other operators. We're also making good progress in our partnership with SAS. Soon we are launching a status matching between our loyalty programs, Scandic Friends and SAS Eurobonus. This will give loyalty members access to attractive and valuable offers across both programs, making it easier for them to tailor their travel experiences based on their needs. I look very much forward to sharing more about the additional benefits in the partnerships shortly. We are now also in the final stage of implementing our new workforce management platform, Quinex, with the completion expected this quarter. The platform will enable us to plan and optimize scheduling based on expected demand. So all in all, there's a strong momentum at Scandic with several strategic initiatives moving us forward and at good pace. And we will continue to keep you updated as we make good progress with this. Together, these efforts, they mark a shift towards a more commercial and competitive Scandic. With that, I'd like to hand it over to you, Per.

Thank you, Jens.

And please turn to page 10.

Yes, thank you, Jens. Good morning, everyone. So, thank you. We had a solid first quarter. We had organic growth of 3.8% and an adjusted EBITDA of 101 million SEK. Leap day and Easter affecting comparability. Hard word to say. mainly in February and March, which showed improved efficiency in operations and good cost control. We saw improved margin of 2.2% compared to 0.7% last year and 1.3% versus 0.6% last year, excluding the one-off. The one-off was related to support in Denmark during the pandemic 2020 and 2021 and amounted to 43 million. We saw especially strong performance in Norway leading to very strong results. Please turn to page 11. We improved cash flow to 20, 15 million SEK last 12 months. Rent payments was the main driver for the improvements. Free cash flow also improved with investments in renovations, IT and new capacity in line with our plan. Please turn to page 12. We have a strong financial position. We're leaving a small quarter and a low season. We also had cash flow for buybacks in the quarter and net debt amounted to 998 million SEC and a leverage ratio of 0.4 times. Please turn to page 13. Value creation and capital distribution to shareholders are very high on our agenda. We paid an extra dividend of 550 million SEK in December last year. We just concluded our 300 million buyback in March. We are planning for the ordinary dividend of 570 million to be decided in the AGM in May and to be paid out in May and also November. We also have an intention to launch a new buyback program of 500 million to be decided by the ADM and board later in May. So with that, I hand back to you, Jens.

Thank you very much. So let's please turn to the next page, 15. So as we prepare for the upcoming busy season, our operational planning is well underway, with a strong focus on ensuring that we can meet the higher demand with good guest satisfaction and efficiency. Based on the current booking situation, we expect good demand throughout the spring and summer, supported by solid levels of travel and tourism, as well as a good event calendar across our markets. We anticipate a good second quarter with slightly higher occupancy levels and average room rates compared to the same period last year. April has started off well and bookings for the remainder of the quarter are better than last year. We remain also mindful of, as I mentioned earlier, of the geopolitical uncertainty. But with that said, based on the current booking trends, we see no signs of a slowdown in demand. With a strong financial position, low debt levels and a clear strategic direction, Scandic is well positioned for the future. We are running our operations with high efficiency and good cost control, which gives us resilience in a changing environment. So all in all, we deliver a good start to the year. And as of now, we have a positive outlook for the spring and the summer. With that, I'd like to thank you all for joining us here today before Easter and then hand it back to the operator for Q&A. Thank you.

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. To enter the queue, if you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Raymond K. from Nordia. Please go ahead.

Good morning Jens and Per. A couple of questions from me. I'll ask them individually. First one, you wrote in the report that you expect prices and occupancy rates to increase in the second quarter. Considering that Easter is in Q2, wouldn't the underlying market have to improve quite a lot year-over-year to compensate for not just that but also for example Taylor Swift last year?

Thank you, Raymond. And good morning to you as well. Yeah, I think it's a very good question. But when we look into what we see on business, on books, you're quite right. We had Taylor Swift in Stockholm last year, but we had no events in Gothenburg as an example. So that was pretty weak last year. This year, it's a bit more balanced between the two. Stockholm is still good. We do see quite good events coming into Stockholm, like World Cup in hockey and several concerts also to Stockholm. And even later in the summer, even Ed Sheeran coming, I think, in August. So we will have both in Gothenburg and Stockholm more events. Also, we see Finland is improving going forward, which is also supporting. And as you see in the result for Q1, you just saw that we came out of Q1 with the best ever result in Norway. And Norway also looks very solid going forward. So all in all, when we look at all the numbers and data which we have on the books, business on books, et cetera, it looks that even with this Easter calendar effect, that the Q2 will be with increasing average room rates as well as occupancy.

That's very clear thank you and then in Q1 we saw of course several US airlines lower their guidance and they mainly commented on this being driven by weaker domestic travel but there is of course a worry that this might spread I mean what do you make of this Jens and what are you seeing in terms of domestic versus international travel patterns and bookings ahead?

Yeah, of course, we are following everything that is going on very, very tight. And as all, I think, companies are following what is happening. I'm very happy to sit at least in my chair right now. We are a very strong Nordic company. We have like 85% after Q1 of the turnover and top line coming from inter-Nordic and domestic business, which is very stable and solid also going forward. We have very limited direct impact from U.S. travelers. You can say in a full year basis, U.S. travels into our business is around 1% of the turnover. And when that's set, you can say, if you look at the first couple of months of the year, it is right that you see that there's a resistance going from Europe to US. It has a decline of 17% from Europe to US in March, for instance. But we also see in the beginning of the year that travelers from US to Europe has actually increased slightly. So I think that the Americans are still very keen on going to Europe. But maybe we are more reluctant in traveling the other way. But right now, we don't have an impact on what is happening with that and all the tariffs directly.

That's very interesting. And one final one for me just on the central function costs. They were 142 million here in Q1, 158 in Q4. How should we sort of think about them going forward in terms of like what range? Is this a reasonable range? Which level is more appropriate to extrapolate that?

Well, I can answer that. And I think we have now implemented a model where it's very clear that we want to scale Scandic and we want to get use of having more opportunities in digitalization and all that. So I think the central functions will be a core part of the company and out on the hotels, it will be more focused on operations and meeting the guests, which means that these functions will be core to drive efficiency also out in the hotels. Having said that, we're a little bit on the peak now. We're implementing, as Jens said before, the web and the app and the workforce management system. And going forward, I think we, of course, will have increases due inflation and salary increases on this. But I think most of the functions will be more efficient going forward and be able to balance the cost pressure from salary and that. And I guess even further into Maybe next year we can also see costs going down, I think, on central levels.

Okay, that's very clear. Thank you so much for answering my questions. I'll get back in line.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Adela Dashian from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good morning, gentlemen. A question on Finland, which still is the weakest link across the markets you're active in. Are you seeing any signs of recovery, or is it still going to be persisting until we get some movement on the geopolitical side? Is that still what's driving the uncertainties? Is there anything else in the Finnish market where you see that you have leverage, or is it going to continue to be weak? as of the booking situation that you have in front of you right now.

Thank you, Adela. It's a good question. When we look at Finland, of course, when we disclose all the data to you, it's mainly, let's say, Finland as a whole. But when we look into the different markets in Finland, we definitely see a lot of positive signals and light in the tunnel. It is a fact that there's a lot of new capacity. We're talking 30% new capacity in Vanta region, meaning that We see a decline in that due to a lot of new capacity that came into the market. But when we look at Helsinki as a whole and city center, it has a good positive development and we are very exposed to Helsinki. So that is very important for us. And in Q1, we also see that we are selling much more rooms in Helsinki area. Still, the north of Finland is strong. Rovaniemi, Leivi, some of these destinations. And they continue to be strong, of course, especially during winter season, where it's high peak with that. But we do see a lot of positive signals for Finland. So if you exclude Vanta area, there's a growth in Finland and especially in sold rooms. So occupancy is increasing in some of our key markets. And that is very important. So we look positively into the coming months with demand increases.

Okay, that's interesting. Thanks for that. And then just on the reserve reversal that you're accounting for as non-recurring items in the quarter, is there any more of this coming for the remainder of the year? Or should we look at more of a clean comparison in the coming years?

Good question. I think this is quite long ago. It was reserved and we have been waiting for the clarity around this and it came now. So therefore we released that and we have no other options. things like this on the balance sheets. So we are expecting to have a very clean one-off schedule going forward.

It was the last one from pandemic, Adela. And now we're happy that that is also handled and released. We've been waiting quite long for that settlement. But it was good that we were in line with our own calculations. And that means that the reserve we had for this was now back on the books. But

you can also say unfortunately it's the last one but it's also good that you have a clean clean balance sheet going forward i understand and then maybe just lastly following up on the the question earlier regarding group functions or the central functions did you say that you are expecting a higher level because of the investments that you're making there

But I think we're a little bit in the peak of the central cost now with implementing the web app and Quinix and also building the more one-scandic focus now. And going forward, you will probably see a balance with... cost efficiencies as well as a little bit pressure from the salaries. And then what I said was going maybe into next year, you can see these costs going down because we see a lot of opportunities in digitalization, other parts of these functions, and then being able to not just only offset the inflation and salary increases, but also to actually reduce the total cost.

Got it. All right. That's all for me. Thank you.

Thank you, Adela.

The next question comes from Jamie Rollo from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. Just two questions, please. The first one, just on the Easter shift, last year you quantified that as a negative 80 million profit hit, which would have suggested well over 100 million in Q1 last year and you made about half that this year if we exclude the non-recurring items. I'm just sort of wondering why you didn't get that full benefit back and maybe you can quantify what the benefit was to Q1 profits from this shift this year.

Yeah, I think the first one, Jamie, is actually you also have to put into account that we had a leap day last year, which was actually a very strong day, a Thursday, another day in Feb. So we have a day less this year and that you need to put into the same calculation. So if we look at both, you can also say maybe on a positive note that it looks that The calendar effect from Easter, all in all, is a bit lower this year. So when you look at what the effect of March and then April as a whole and looking at the whole Easter, you can say it looks also a bit better this year. And maybe the effect versus last year was less in March, but it's flattening a bit out, maybe because of the swift also into more and more leisure driven business all in all. that are maybe catering for this. So when we look at the Easter, of course, it has an effect positively in March this year and negatively in April. But I would say maybe it's a bit less than what we saw last year, all in all. So first half looks better, all in all, which is good.

Okay, just perhaps following on from that then, I mean, if we go back to previous years when East has been very late, so 2019 and 2017. The company made about 150, 160 million back then. I appreciate it's a very small quarter, but obviously it's a lot less than that. Do you think just the company has become a bit more seasonal? Is that what's caused that shift?

I don't know if we are both seasonal, but I think between the segments, a lot happened, Jamie, and I think we are good at maybe even better also at handling Easter period. I think we had a good signal, you can say, when Easter was... especially it hits Norway more than it hits the other markets. You know, Norway has a tendency of really going on an Easter vacation and go to their cabins instead of going to the hotel. So normally that period of time is hitting harder in Norway. And that is kind of many years of experience. But when we look at both a bit last year, but that the effect was maybe a bit lower all in all, looking at the two quarter last year, And looking at this year, I think Easter looks fairly good versus last year, even in Norway. That also means that normally we close a few hotels during a few days on the Easter in Norway. And we do that much less this year, simply because the demand is higher. That is good that the break-even point are there to make a profitable business. So all in all, I think... I think it is driven by, I think, more strong leisure development overall that are supporting the Easter.

Okay, thanks. I'm sorry, the other sort of main area of questioning was just on the restaurant and conference revenues, which again were sort of a bit sort of flat year on year, despite quite a big occupancy increase. Is that just still reflecting the action you're taking on efficiencies? Are there any concerns on that revenue line we should have? Thank you.

No, but very good, Jamie, and rightly spotted. We continue to be very, very clear in how we operate efficiently, meaning that we take some, let's say, precautionary actions in terms of opening hours and and what kind of business we want to have in, because you know that some of the F&B business are not really profitable. So we have been very good at measuring that into better and better details and do selective choices. So I'm actually very happy that it's very flat for this quarter with all the initiatives that we take, where we also save a lot on the work hours and the manning in cost in the operations. That is a good mix that we handle. But I see, I would say, a very stable F&B operation. And I see definitely that people are still going to restaurants. And we do not see that average spend, for instance, which we measure is going down. That is also very stable. So people still, you know, spend the average spend per guest in the restaurants and in the bars. And that is a good signal that people do not stop spending, you would say.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

The next question comes from Artem Prokopets from UBS. Please go ahead.

Good morning everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three if I may. So first one on portfolio. Do you expect any exits in 2025-2026? And do you plan any further temporary hotel closures for extensions or renovation? And also, when do you expect almost 600 rooms closed currently for extension and renovation to be reopened again? So my second question is about cost inflation. Where do you see the cost inflation in 2025 excluding fixed rents? And finally, question number three, do you possibly have any estimates or expectations on how the new loyalty program website and a new app could impact business on the revenue side and cost side, for example, like decline in distribution costs or something else? Thank you.

No, thank you. The first one, let's say exits and renovations. I think we have done quite a lot, as you know, over the recent years. And if I split it in two, you could say we have another planned exit 1st of August in a smaller hotel. But we have limited planned exits, you could say, of leaving hotels going forward. That is very important to say. So you will not see the same amount of hotels being left as you have seen the last couple of years, which is good. So that will be very limited. When you look at renovations, yeah, we are renovating more rooms during the winter season now than we did the last couple of years, simply because we now have paid our debt and we have a very solid position and we want to regain momentum in fixing some of the hotels that are in that need. So we have more rooms out of order for that during winter. Even in this quarter, you see that we have rooms out of order, which we renovate. But most of these are being opened now during this period of time around Easter so that we are ready with that for the busy season. So you will see more rooms available in operation in the second and third quarter than you did in the last. So that is how we normally do it. And that we will do also going forward. So once we come into the, In December, we will renovate again between that and Easter, where we can do most without saying no to business. Maybe pay some cost inflations.

I mean, if you break it down, I think we're looking at rent indexes at around 2% based on the October numbers that are the basis for that. And energy, we're calculating around 2% as well. For the salary costs, it's starting to come in now from the different countries. And I think we just concluded in Sweden at the two-year agreement where it's 3.4% the first year. And of course, that will not be for the full year. And then you have... a little bit more than 4% in Norway. And I think that the importance here is that in the countries where we see the biggest salary increases, we also have also the ability to also increase room prices as in Norway. And of course, we have cost inflation on specific items now that is talked a lot about, for example, dairy products, coffee, orange juice, that is... probably increasing you know 10 to 20 percent uh but i guess that that we try to mitigate in in other ways uh so i think it's uh overall it's it's pretty much in line with what we planned for this year and and i don't see you know any major issues in that that we can still handle this um these levels in a good way

And if I take your last question a bit, the loyalty, yeah, we have a very strong focus on developing the loyalty program, which is already good. We have like more than 3 million members and with the partnership with SAS, a lot of good stuff are coming also with that. In a very short while, we're talking X weeks from now, we will open up for the possibility to do what we call tier matching, which means that you can match your level between your SAS Eurobonus and the Scandic Friends program and vice versa. And that means that a lot of members have a good opportunity to get an equal level in the other program. And, of course, that will open up for more people. Let's motivate more people to spend their weeks and their overnight sleeps with Scandic. So that we expect quite a lot from going forward with the web and the app and, of course, the OTA business. All in all, we see a steady movement towards the digital channels and it moves away from booking routes the normal booking channels and where you have call centers, et cetera. So the calls into call centers are going down and the web bookings are going up. But we follow that both very closely on the own web and the OTAs and et cetera, and have a good development even on the own web. So all in all, I think we don't expect a lot of changes very shortly when it comes to that cost level of commissions, et cetera. But going forward, of course, we have a clear plan that moving more and more guests through the loyalty program, making it easier to book, that should decrease also cost of booking over time. And that we put forward in our 2030 ambitions, where we also said we want to double the amount of loyalty members And then linked to that over time, that cost potentially could go down a bit.

Great. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Karl-Johan Bonnevir from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning, Jan Semper. A lot of good clarification already. Just coming back to the event calendar and business demand, when you look at the books that are coming in to now the high season, how do you see the component of business demand meeting activities and similar kind of things?

First of all, we do see, if I understand your question correctly, into the coming period of time. When we look at business on books, of course, April is affected by the Easter. So, of course, April on a whole is a bit lower. But looking into the May and June figures and even further down the road, business on books looks very good. It's also interesting to see that we have a lot of discussions internally around the mix of bookings. We do have a lot of individual bookings, meaning that it looks to be very stable bookings that we have. We have a higher standard. let's say cancellation factor when it comes to leisure groups than for instance leisure individuals where cancellation factor is much lower so and it is a lot of individual bookings which means that we have more business on books and it also looks to be very stable business on books so with that said that's why we dare to say that we have these strong ambitions and expectations for the coming period that it looks to be better than last year That's very encouraging

And Per, I know the working capital cycle for you is at its worst point, close to it at the end of Q1. Is there anything we should consider not seeing a normal kind of working capital kind of pattern during this year?

No, but I think we're entering this year with, as you saw, a little bit improved working capital from the rent payments. And I guess we expect that over this year, flattening it out. And I don't see any other things. I mean, we have the... We have the buyback program and dividend payments and all that on top. So, of course, we will have some cash outflows. And then we have, as Jens is saying, a stable business on the books, which also gives us, you know... quite good prepayments for the cash flow. So it also looks that we have a good position to have a little bit better working capital during the year as a whole.

Excellent. And when we are looking at the implementation of the 500 million buyback program that you're now taking from after the AGM, Should we expect that to mirror your free cash flow profile, or do you see it spread out over the whole period independent of that?

No, but I think, I mean, it's still due to the AGM in May, and that's our board decision. And after that, I guess we have the plan to... to start it maybe in June and run it until March 26 and have it evenly spread out. That is the game plan as we look at right now. And of course, I mean, that could be a component to change if the world is completely different. But as we see it now, right now, the business on the books is good and the things looks very stable. So I expect us to execute on that plan.

Excellent. Thank you very much and all the best out there.

Thank you.

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Thank you very much, Speaker, and thank you all for joining us for this call.

very much forward to the coming basic quarter that we already started and looking forward to speaking to you all again. You know where we are. If you have further questions, just reach out. Otherwise, I wish you all a fantastic day. See you.