Swedbank AB (publ)

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for dialing in to Swedbank's second quarter 2024 results presentation. My name is Annie Ho from Investor Relations, and in the room with me is Jens Henriksen, Anders Karlsson, and Rolf Marquardt, our CEO, CFO, and CRO. Let's kick off with our usual presentation and then follow up with Q&As. So over to you, Jens, please.

Thank you, Annie. Swedbank has again delivered a strong result, and we are creating values for our customers and shareholders in both good and bad times. In an uncertain world, economic conditions continued to improve in our four home markets during the quarter. Household purchasing power improved in Latvia and Lithuania thanks to strong wage growth and falling inflation. In Estonia and Sweden, households are still cautious. Our home markets are well positioned for the future, with strong public finances and competitive firms. Indications are that growth in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will be among the highest in Europe next year. Policy rates have been lowered by both the Riksbank and ECB, and looking ahead, we expect further cuts. At the same time, interest rates will remain high for longer. In these uncertain times, Swedbank delivered a strong result of 8.6 billion for the second quarter. Net interest income decreased by 3%, mainly due to lower deposit margins. Net commission income increased by 5% due to higher income from asset management and card provisions. Expenses increased according to plan, and we maintained a strict cost control, and the cost-to-income ratio was 0.35%. The temporary hiring freeze introduced in late April, as in June, resulted in that the number of employees began to decrease. we maintain a high rate of investments related to fighting fraud, improving our payment system, data and AI, and to IRB. Summing up, we delivered a return on equity of 17.5% and earnings per share of 7 kronor and 61 öre for the second quarter. A strong result. Swedbank has a conservative and thorough lending process. Our credit quality is solid, and during the quarter we reported credit recoveries mainly due to an improved economic outlook. We have a strong ability to generate capital and a strong capital position with a buffer of 5 percentage points. Our liquidity position is strong. Swedbanks works systematically and continuously to fight financial crime and reduce the risk of fraud for our customers. To further strengthen our work, the group function anti-financial crime was during the quarter integrated into group products and advice. This moves these operations closer to the bank's customer, product and service offerings with a focus on digital execution. To reflect the breadth of our work, the new unit is changing its name to Economic Crime Prevention. Our work never ends. But we are seeing the results of our intensified efforts, with customers now reporting a lower amount from fraud losses. The target of a sustainable return on equity of at least 15% is the foundation for our Swedbank 1525 plan. And the plan is based on four business priorities. First, we will leverage and continue to develop our proven business model. We will grow the share of wallet for existing customers. We will grow the business in prioritized segments. And we will improve our availability and operational efficiency. During the quarter, we were able to distribute nearly 1 million calls within our Swedish local branches through our new cloud-based communication platform. And the work to develop our new and modern savings platform has continued. We have now moved more than one million accounts and customers into the new platform. The new platform gives us better opportunities to support our customers to improve their financial health. Swedbank is the leader in mortgages in all our home markets in tight and tough competition. In Sweden, we saw increased demand for loan commitments during the quarter, and that is a sign that the market is slowly beginning to pick up. But the volume of new loans remains low. In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, demand for mortgages remains stable. During the quarter, we saw increased deposits in tough competition. And when the market changes, we act strategically and decisively. Our work to build a strong savings culture in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is continuing. Our ruble funds continue to be an attractive investment alternative. The Educational Foundation in Latvia started on our initiative, launched operations during the quarter, and Swedbank has contributed a first sum of 6 million euro. The Foundation's mission is to support initiatives that contribute to society's growth and development. the work being done in our new business area, premium and private banking, is producing results. Since the start of the year, the number of newly connected customers who have chosen the private banking concept has increased by 7%. During the quarter, we saw increased customer activity in the corporate segment. Lending volumes in Sweden increased, mainly driven by the real estate sector and large clients. We are selective, and our exposure remains in line with the bank's strategy and risk appetite. Corporate lending is performing strongly in Lithuania, and we are now market leading. This is a result of a sharper focus on both existing and potential customers, improved service quality, and customized financing solutions. During the quarter, we took another step in our Nordic strategy by partnering with the Finnish bank Aktia. We are thereby expanding the corporate offering in Finland in a similar way that we've previously done in Norway and Denmark. As you all know, sustainability is at the core of Swedbank's business strategy, customer promise and day-to-day operations. We have extended our partnership with the company e-Agronom and become a part-owner. Together, we are offering agricultural customers in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania financing solutions for investments in sustainable agriculture. A sustainable bank is a profitable bank. Together with our customers, we can create a financially sound and sustainable society. And Swedbank cares deeply about financial health. And this means having financial literacy, a long-term savings buffer, income that exceeds expenses, and if you borrow, have mortgages and have insurance to provide financial security. With this in mind, it is gratifying to see an increased interest in pension savings in the shape of unit-linked life insurance. Swedbank Forsäkring is now the largest unit-linked life insurance company as measured by both premium payments and assets under management. And with that said, I give the word to Anders, who will deep dive, as always, into the financials.

Thank you, Jens. Let's start with the lending and the deposits. The loan portfolio increased by 13 billion, excluding a negative FX impact of 5 billion. In Sweden, total private mortgage lending was stable. While volumes are still muted, we are seeing positive signs in the mortgage market. House prices have increased over the quarter and transaction volumes year over year have improved. Total corporate lending in Sweden increased by 7 billion, mainly to the property management sector, and in the Baltics private lending increased by 2 billion and corporate lending by 3 billion. Customer deposits increased by 22 billion, excluding a 6 billion negative FX impact. Private deposits in Sweden increased by 12 billion and by 7 billion in the Baltics, positively impacted by income tax refunds. Corporate deposits in Sweden were stable and they increased by 4 billion in the Baltics due to temporary inflows from the state and investment institutions. Turning to the revenue lines, beginning with net interest income, which decreased by 3%, volumes impacted positively, while the net interest margin was lower. This was due to known trends, namely lower market rates, high margin corporate deposit outflows from last quarter, and higher costs from increased wholesale funding. The changes that we made in May and June on customer lending and deposit rates had a relatively small impact this quarter. In the Baltics, lower market rates impacted NIM negatively, primarily due to transaction accounts where we pay 0%. The higher wholesale funding costs were a result of higher outstanding volumes and the full quarter impact of a couple of capital and MREL issuance in Q1. The outlook for the economies in our home markets has improved, which will provide an opportunity for lending demand to return. Going forward, we will continue with our pricing strategy and actively work with our administratively priced core products on both sides of the balance sheet. Over to net commission income, which increased by 194 million, mainly driven by stock market performance within asset management and seasonally higher card commissions. Net gains and losses was strong and ended at 911 million, an increase of 230 million. FX and fixed income sales and trading performed well, contributing almost 700 million to the NGL. And there were positive revaluations from funding-related swaps. Other income increased by 160 million and ended at 991 million. All key lines were higher. Underlying net insurance income continues to improve, having offset the 84 million revaluation effect. Total expenses are developing according to plan. We started off this year at a higher investment and development pace, which continued into Q2. These include improving our omni-channel communication platform, further development of our IT infrastructure, including data and AI, fraud prevention and IRB. For the quarter, total expenses were 280 million higher. Salary increases for employees in the Baltics were implemented at the beginning of April. IT maintenance has increased as we experienced the full effects of recently negotiated third-party contracts rolling in. We paid out an endowment in Latvia of roughly 70 million. and FX increased expenses by 50 million during the quarter. Compared to our cost guidance, which assumed a neutral development, FX have added 100 million to expenses year-to-date, reminding you that this is net positive for the bottom line. For the rest of the year, you will see less fluctuations between the quarters compared to a typical year. Now over to you, Rolf, to talk about asset quality and credit impairments.

Thank you, Anders. Credit quality is solid. Our customers show continued resilience, and year-to-date we have had net recoveries. Past due loans for Swedish households were at very low levels, and the inflow of new late payments and foreborn exposures has continued but is slowing down. In the second quarter, credit impairments ended at a net recovery of 289 million. The updated macro forecast reduced provisions by 253 million on the back of an improved economic outlook. Rating and stage migrations added 282 million, mainly in the construction, manufacturing, and retail sectors. At the same time, 43 million of the post-model adjustment was released. The remaining post-model adjustment is 946 million. Individual assessments were 79 million. Net repayments reduced provisions by 320 million, mainly in property management and construction, but also other various sectors. A portfolio sale gave a net gain of 137 million. The Swedish property management sector continued to have a stable development during the quarter. A large part of the property management companies, and especially the large and medium-sized ones, have adapted well to the new conditions. We apply a selective approach to new business in the sector. Looking at the reported Q1 financials of the 20 largest customers, the debt service tolerance ratio, that is the break-even interest rate, was 8.3%. The average interest coverage ratio declined to 2.4. I will note that the decline has leveled off. So to conclude, we have a solid credit quality. Back to you, Anders.

Thank you, Rolf. Now turning to capital. Our capital position continues to be strong. With a CT1 capital ratio of 20.1%, and a buffer of around 500 basis points above the requirement. The capital target range of 100 to 300 basis points remains. Risk exposure amount decreased by 11 billion and ended the quarter at 848 billion, mainly due to a net 10 billion reduction as exposures including tenant-owner associations were reclassified from retail to corporate exposures outside the risk-weight-floor regime. This is part of the ongoing IRB work.

I now hand over to you Jens. Thank you. So let me now sum up a quarter where we once again deliver a strong result. The return on equity was 17.5%. We maintain strict cost control. For the quarter, the cost-to-income ratio was 0.35. Credit quality remains solid, and we reported credit recoveries, and our capital buffer is strong at 5 percentage points. We look forward to delivering even more customer value and taking additional steps to deliver on our plan, Swedbank 1525. And we are creating value for our customers and our shareholders. Our customers' focus is our focus. And with that, I give the floor back to Johan.

Thank you very much. I think we're ready to open up for Q&As, but before we hand over to the operator, can I just remind everybody to stick to two questions per turn? Operator, over to you.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of Andreas Hankason, SEB. Please go ahead.

Thanks and good morning, everyone. So first question comes on the NII. I mean, you've done very significant funding in the quarter at the same time as your deposits have been growing and there's been not that much loan growth. Could you take us through how you see the funding for the rest of the year if lending is picking up? Have you done the funding and the lending is now to catch up, so to say? And to get with that, if you look at the NII outlook today, compared to just a quarter ago if we disregard the rate decline, which obviously has an impact. But are you today more positive or what's your outlook today? That's my first question related to NIR.

Thank you, Andreas. On the funding side, we have issued approximately, I think, 80 billion in the first half of the year, and we have plans to issue another 80 billion in the next coming half year. So that stands. As you know, the funding need is a composition of regulatory funding, which is MREL-related. There we are at a good level, but that needs to be maintained. As you are aware of, when bonds are maturing or closing into maturity, they are worthless from an MREL perspective, so we need to keep that level up. Deposit in the quarter is up, correctly so. I would argue that it's more of a seasonal pattern. You can't base your funding plan on seasonal patterns. So we will use covered bonds going forward as the sort of mechanism to close any funding gap. On your second quarter, when it comes to NII outlook, Andreas, I need you to repeat that because I forgot the last question.

I'm just thinking, compared to what you saw a quarter ago on the underlying NII, excluding the rate cuts, so to say, you talk about the pickup in interest for mortgages, and you see some decent flow in deposits, and then you have the funding. Are you more or less positive on the underlying NII today compared to a quarter ago?

I will not guide on that, Andreas, but the two important factors that will be part of the answer is how we act on our pricing on the administratively set rates on the asset side and the liability side, and hopefully lending volumes picking up.

Okay, we'll see that. And my second question is on capital. You have a massive buffer today, and it will continue to be capital in Q3 and Q4 most probably. Have you given any guidance or could you update us on timing of your IRB model approvals, what you believe the net impact is going to be from your pillar to add-on, maybe also together with Basel Forest as an update on how you think those different components are going to cancel each other out, or what's the net impact?

Well, is it okay if I start, and then I'll send it over to Rolf Anders? Let's see who sort of fights to get that question. So first, you know that we have a capital buffer range between 100 and 300 basis points. And when we look on 1525, we target the mid of it, i.e. 200 basis points in 2025. And that gives us an excess capital in 2025 of 300 basis points, or maybe a little bit more. Out of these, 100 are reserved by the Swedish FSA, and we expect the lion's share to be released during 2025. And all that stands, and we have no intention to hold more capital than necessary. Now, who want to take this question? Anders?

I go for it. I think that the way to think around Basel IV and what's upcoming, Andreas, is that the first regulatory effect you will see will come under current regulation at the end of the year when we do our annual update of op-risk, risk exposure amount calculations, where we replace the 21... revenue lines with the 24 revenue lines. So you can use your own estimate for the full year and replace 21 with 24, and then you get an idea of that. When it comes to Basel IV, what we said in the investor day is that around 130 basis points lie ahead of us. That includes IRB and Basel IV. Basel IV is, as far as we can forecast, of limited impact. And again, it's operational risk that will have a negative impact from it on the back of the change in coefficients for the calculation of up-risk risk exposure amount.

And then I could pick up on the approval process. So IRB approval is expected to continue this year, 2025, and into 2026. What comes first in lines for us is the Swedish private models, including the private mortgage models, and that we expect to be dealt with during 2025. But it will continue the total process into 2026.

And Anders, back to you, you said 130 bps, which is then going to be offset by a reduced pillar 2, right?

No, the estimate that we did in the investor day did not include the P2R.

And you still don't believe that that's going to be reduced because you have an add-on today relating to the IRB models, right?

So Pillar 2R related, the big part of the Pillar 2 requirement is related to the mortgage portfolio, and that will be released when we have the approval for the Swedish mortgage models.

Yeah, exactly.

Thanks. The next question comes from the line of Magnus Andersson, ABG. Please go ahead.

Yes, hi. Just wondering there about your cost target. It implies a fairly flat development of costs in the second half of the year versus the first half, which is quite unusual. Just how we should think about that. And related to that, could it be a point in Q4 you guided for investment initiatives adding some $1 billion per year in 2024? Could it be an idea to front load the whole program if things are going well? Thank you.

Thank you, Magnus. Yes, you're correct. And that's why I said that you will see a more evenly distributed cost development over the year. We have had... a very high development pace during both the first and the second quarter. And you can clearly see that. And we have been using external consultants to a very large extent. We will gradually come down into the next half year of this year. Then, as Jens mentioned, we have this hiring freeze, which is now giving an effect, which will also be seen in June. the second half of the year. When it comes to your idea of front-loading, we are front-loading. That's the whole point. But you need to have the capacity to deliver, not only spend money. And we have said roughly 1 billion in 2024 and roughly 1 billion in 2025.

Okay, so not necessarily... 1 billion per year then. And just to follow up, have you said anywhere how much of the 1 billion for 24 you have done in the first half?

No, we have not. And we will not specify it since it is part of already up and running projects. Okay.

Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Gulnara Saitkulova. Morgan Stanley, please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. This is Gunnara from Morgan Stanley, and thank you for taking my questions. On NAI, can you talk about your outlook for the lending and deposit margins for the coming quarters in Sweden and the Baltics? And when could you potentially expect the feasible improvement in lending margins to come through? And when would you expect the potential pressure on the deposit margins to subside? And related to that, the question on the competition, can you please share in a bit more detail what you're seeing on the competitive behavior on both loans and deposit pricing and where it is coming from? You mentioned during your commentary that there is some pressure there, but do you see any improvement versus Q1 or late last year? And how would you expect the competitive behavior to evolve in the second half of this year and into 2025? and the potential implications on the margins from the competition.

Thank you. Well, let me first start. So if you look on sort of the demand for loan is quite low, and that means that there is quite a lot of competition for the loans that are out there. And if you look on the mortgage market, you will see that it's a tight competition around that. When it comes to lending margins, they are roughly about the same now as before.

Yes, and thank you. I will not guide you on this, but when you look into our balance sheet structure, we have a fair amount of transaction deposits where we are paying zero or very close to zero. So that you should have in the back of your mind when you look at this. When it comes to... What I'm talking about to continue with our pricing strategy, working with both administratively set rates on the assets and liability side, that will be very much up to competition. But just to remind you what we did in May in Sweden when we saw the first rate cut from the Riksbank, We lowered our three-month mortgages with 25 basis points, but we also lowered all our transaction and savings accounts with 20 basis points. So when market rates change, we will act decisively. But the competition is obviously something to factor in.

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sophie Petersons, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Hi. Here is Sophie from JP Morgan. So just about the $11 billion risk-rated asset release that you saw this quarter, which was mainly driven by a reclassification of housing associations into the corporates, What was the rationale for this? Why do it now? What drove this change? And also, what drove the change in the large corporate PD models? Was it the regulator or was it your own initiative? So if you could maybe give a little bit more background around this. Also, if you could just let us know what the risk rates are for The housing association, is it in line with your peers to 3% versus 25% previously? And also on the corporate side, what the risk rate reduction was. And then the second question would be one of your peers who reported this morning, so difficult to guess. They announced that they have a pension surplus over 30 billion Swedish kronas. that is deducted from the core equity tier one. Do you have anything similar? And if so, how much is your pension surplus? How much could you potentially extract from the pension surplus in the core equity tier one on an annual basis? And then the final question, is there anything additional you can say on the pending AML case? Any updates here would be much appreciated. Thank you.

Well, let me start with the last question. As you all know, we are still in discussions with three U.S. authorities, the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Department of Financial Services in New York. And as I've told you many times, when I was a new CEO, I talked with other colleagues that have been in similar circumstances, and they told me that the process like this usually takes between three and five years. In October, I have been the CEO for close to five years, so in that sense, we're getting closer. But it is a timeline that is fully decided by the U.S. authorities. I do not know when this will be concluded. I do not know whether we will get any fine. And if we do get any fine, I cannot estimate the size of those. We have been as transparent as possible during this process. And, as always, when something material happens, we will continue to adhere to that principle. Now, who wants... Rolf.

Yeah, I could pick up on the question regarding the change on risk weights for housing associations. So we have, as part of the RBO overall work and preparations for CR3, we have reviewed the exposure class definitions we have and decided to move housing associations into the corporate sector. That means that they will fall outside of the risk weight floor. So that's what you see. So it's part of the process we are going through here. And secondly, when it comes to the Article 3 change related to the corporate PD models, we got approval for those last year, and then we started to implement those models in July 2023. And then it takes a year to go through the complete process. It has now been completed. meaning that we don't need the Article 3 add-on anymore because it's now into the figures. And then finally, on the risk weights on the housing associations, I don't have that on the top of my mind. We might get back to that to you.

And Sophie, on your question around the pension surplus, I need to get back to you on that one as well. I don't have that on the top of my head.

Thank you. I appreciate it.

The next question comes from the line of Namita Santani, Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, and thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, do you think deposit makes shift in Sweden and the Baltics has bottomed out? And secondly, just in Sweden on the deposit rates, you said you were able to manage 20 bps on the savings accounts, but why only 10 bps on the three-month rate? Thanks.

Well, first, what we did is that, let me answer on sort of what the customer sees. We had 0.3% on a current account, and we lowered that to 0.10. And e-savings account, we had 2.10 and lowered that to 1.9. So we did across the board with 0.2% cut, at the same time as we cut mortgage rates with 25 pips. Anders, do you want to?

Yes, and on the mix shift, if you look at Sweden first, we had zero mix shift from savings for transaction accounts into fixed term. If you look at the Baltics on the private side, it's very limited. It's up a bit on the corporate side, but that is related to what I said in my speech, temporary replacements from the governments and investment institutions. So it seems to have stabilized.

Thanks very much. The next question comes from the line of Bettina Turner. BNP Paribas, please go ahead.

Yeah, hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I just had a quick question about the mortgage margins. If you look at your company website at the negotiated rates, you can see that in June, the three-month fixing was stable to May, despite of early May still not being affected by the rate cuts. Could you maybe comment on this? Is this an early sign of maybe the lending margin pressure easing a bit in Sweden? Or is this just a mixed shift effect and we shouldn't read too much into it? Thank you.

Well, I don't think you should read much into it. It is a tight competition. And when you look on private mortgages, we see some signs of a pickup in the market. But remember that during 2020, let's go back. First, in 2023, the full Swedish mortgage market grew by around 15 billion. And that was less than one-tenth. to what it was compared to one year before. And if you look in the first five months of this year, the full Swedish mortgage market has grown by around 9 billion. Out of that, we have grown with around 3 billion for our own channels. So why am I saying all this? Well, there are low volumes and tough competition, and we stand ready when the market takes off with more volumes.

Very clear. Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Martin Ekstedt, Handelsbank. Please go ahead.

Thank you for taking my questions. So looking at slide 11, which speaks about the targets for corporate lending in the Baltics and increasing market shares some 5% to 10% in 2030, I also noted in the quarter that Unicredit is now a rumored buyer of Lumino in the Baltics. I just wanted to ask, my question is, would the entry of a major European bank into the Baltics change those assumptions around targets that you have there on that slide? Or is it already factored in that Lumino would change hands over this time period?

Well, thank you for a good question, because that's exactly what we talked about in our 1525. We have strong ambitions in the Baltics. I usually don't like to talk about the Baltics. I talk about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. We're the number one. bank for privates in Estonia. We're the number one in Latvia and number one in Lithuania. When it comes to corporates, this quarter, we're actually the number one in Lithuania as well and number one in Estonia. We want to grow more when it comes to the corporate market and our ambition stands. And of course, there will be competition. But we have to, as always, have the best offer.

Understood. And then I had a second question coming back to the U.S. AML process there, when you mentioned that in October you will have been CEO for five years. But in November, there's another event in the U.S., right? There's an election. And I just wanted to check if this being an election year at all features in your own thinking around the timing for potential find them from the Department of Justice or others in the U.S.? ?

Well, I would not dare to have any guess about that. The key thing is that this is a timeline fully decided by the U.S. authorities, and we adhere to that principle. Okay. Understood. Thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Huck Moorhead, Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Hugh from Berenberg here. Thanks very much for taking my questions. A couple of small clarifications on the models front. Firstly, did I hear you say that Article 3 add-ons have now been reduced to nil? I thought that there was $27 billion of add-ons at the last quarter, which would suggest $17 billion left now. And adjacent to that, please can you confirm if there will be any more migrations from retail to corporate which could lead to further REA releases as we've seen with housing association loans this quarter. And then secondly, just on Baltic NII, which looks like it's been pretty resilient Q on Q. I appreciate there's probably a bit of FX tailwind at work there. But could you just confirm, please, that there are no other one-offs, for example, that are providing support there and that therefore that the kind of Q on Q evolution is relatively clean? Thank you.

Yeah, so let's start with the Article 3 add-on. No, the Article 3 add-on in total is not nil, but it's nil for the large corporate PD model. So that's just for that model, but we still have some Article 3 add-ons, as you can see.

Thank you. And on the NII in the Baltics, I think there are – we tend to look at it from a group perspective since when you see rates moving like you have seen in the quarter, there is always traffic between the business areas and treasury. But there is a positive FX element into NII, definitely so.

Okay, thank you. And sorry, just on the note, and just to confirm, no further REA releases likely from the migration of loans from retail to corporate models? No. Okay, thanks very much.

The next question comes from the line of Riccardo Rove, Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning, everybody. A couple of clarifications, if I may. First of all, is it possible to have an idea of the amount in SEC billions of the transaction accounts that are now remunerated at the 10 basis points in Sweden? The other thing I wanted to understand a little bit more is... Sorry, Riccardo.

Could you just repeat that last part of your question? We missed that.

Sure, sure, sure. I hope now the line is a bit better. I just wanted to have an idea of the amount of deposits, transaction accounts in Sweden that are remunerated 10 basis points, if I understood it correctly, one of your previous statements. The second question I have is on the overlays, is it fair to say that maybe a possible use of this is progressive release quarter by quarter, and maybe this process could last, I don't know, just a couple of years or three years. You use the bigger numbers instead of having one big release at year end when you talk to your auditors. And the other question I have is, again, on Basel IV, if I understood it correctly, when you state, before you state that in January 25, if you respect the impact from puzzle four to be minimal. So out of the 130 basis points that you'd like in your capital market today, that part should be not alcove, if I understood it correctly, and that should be mostly from operational risk, if I understood it right. How can this be possible considering that your risk weights in general terms are, you know, are away from the standardized levels and even if you use an output floor of 50% on Jan 25. Thanks.

Thank you, Riccardo. On your first question, the amount of transaction accounts in Sweden that are related to the private portfolio is roughly 100 billion.

Okay, so let's start with your question about the post-model adjustment. And as you know, the post-model adjustment was initially made on the back of COVID, which was then followed by the Ukraine war, sharply increased inflation, interest rates, etc., And this caused a potential increased risk on a portfolio level, and we concluded this was not fully reflected in our models and thus in credit migrations. And as we have seen these migrations materialize, the post-model adjustment has been partly released, and that's also the background to divorces you have seen over the last quarters. But we also conclude that some uncertainties do remain, and that's also why we have kept the post-model adjustment at the level we have kept. So that's the approach we have. So as we see that this is getting embedded in the credit loss calculations we are making, then we release the reserve. And then on operational risk, I think, and the capital requirement under Basel IV. So as Anders mentioned, so what happens in the first step is by the end of this year when we update and changing the years that are being part of the calculation of the operational risk capital requirements. So that's one part. And then when we go into Basel IV, we have an additional impact changing the method. So that is what is actually going to happen. So that's the explanation behind it.

So on this last topic, so I understand correctly that In January 2025, there will be no impact on risk-weighted assets on credit risk. It will only be up risk. IFR TV is 26 now, for the moment, at least.

That's correct. The Basel IV effect is related to the update of the coefficients for calculating operational risk capital requirements. Okay. Okay.

Thanks. The next question comes from the line of Markus Sandgren. Please go ahead.

Morning, guys. I was just thinking, I saw you did some incremental commercial real estate lending this quarter. And at the same time, we hear there's really good spreads in the market for issuing bonds in that segment. What are you seeing on the ground in terms of competition between the bond market and your lending? And also going forward, I mean, given that you have quite a lot of commercial real estate lending, do you have any upper limit? Or if that grows really strongly, could you benefit from that? Thanks.

Well, if I will start first, I mean, we talk frequently with our property management customers. And I think they have sort of learned quite a lot from what has happened. And we see that we see potentially in sort of more bank lending in the future. Exactly how that combination would look like. It depends on sort of the competition on rates. And let me just... restate what I said for a long time, and that is that the exposure we have in this market, it's in line with our strategy and risk appetite, and the increase you've seen during the quarter of 10 billion has been selective.

Okay, thanks.

The last question is from Shrey Srinastava, Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Hi, and thank you very much for taking my question. Just one from me, please. You, among other incumbents, have been losing market share in the household deposit market and the household lending market, if we go by the system data. Looking at competition, not only from other incumbents in the field, but also from niche banks, How do you see this evolving as rates come down and what advantages do you have that will enable you to preserve market share from this point? Thank you.

Well, it is a strong competition out there, and especially with low volumes, there is a big competition around sort of the volumes that is there. But I think that's life. And what we need to do is to have the best full service offering. And I'm proud to say that we have the best full service offering. So there will be monoliners trying to grab the piece of the cake, but we will keep on fighting and have the best customer opportunity. Now, it seems like there are no more questions. In that case, I want to say thank you. Thank you for following us, and thank you for always asking difficult questions. Now, I'm going to go to London later on this evening for some meetings, and I wish you all a great summer. I'm looking forward to seeing you either on the road, on the screen, or next time we deliver our result. Thank you. Bye.