1/29/2026

speaker
Maria Kahneman
Head of Investor Relations

Thank you for dialing in this morning. I am Maria Kahneman, Head of Investor Relations here at Swedbank. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2025 results presentation. I'm joined today by our CEO, Jens Henriksson, and our CFO, Jon Lederfelt. Jens and Jon will start with their presentation, and then there will be an opportunity to ask questions. With that, I would like to hand it over to Jens.

speaker
Jens Henriksson
CEO

Thank you, Maria. 2025 was a successful year for Swedbank. The target of a sustainable return on equity of 15% was achieved. During 2025, the global economy was, despite tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, more resilient than expected. A few weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund released an update to its world economic outlook. It revised the world growth forecast slightly upwards for this year against the backdrop of a steady and resilient economy. However, with renewed global tensions and strained public finances, global growth could be curbed. In our home markets, the economic situation continues to brighten thanks to large investments and strong private consumption. In Sweden, the recovery began in the second half of 2025 and our economies expect growth of more than 2.5% in 2026. Lithuania had a strong development in 2025, and growth is expected to pick up further this year. In Estonia and Latvia, growth also is likely to rise in 2026. In these times, Swedbank has once again delivered a strong result. For the fourth quarter, we saw a return on equity of 14.7% and a return on equity for the full year was 15.2%. Costs developed as planned and the cost-to-income ratio was 0.36% both during the quarter and for the full year. Cost control is a strategically important issue and is reflected in all parts of the bank. Credit quality is solid. Earnings per share for 2025 amounted to 28 Swedish kronor and 98 euro. The Board of Directors is proposing to the Annual General Meeting a total dividend of 29 kronor and 80 öre per share, of which 9 kronor and 35 öre is a special dividend on the basis of the bank's strong capital position. Our CET1 capital buffer then amounts to 3 percentage points. Swedbank has a strong capital and liquidity position. During the past few years, we have, by strengthening governance and internal controls, improved work methods and investments in new technology, created a stable foundation for the bank. Now we are looking ahead with increased focus on our customers. At our investor day in June last year, we presented our direction, Swedbank 1527. And it has a clear customer focus. We will strengthen our customer interactions, grow our volumes and increase our efficiency. Availability and efficiency are fundamental. Succeeding in these areas will enable us to be even more proactive, meet more customers and do more business. And in these areas, we've already made significant progress. Our availability in Sweden increased significantly last year. In 2025, we had over 30% more calls with our customers than the year before. At the end of 2024, we answered 29% of incoming calls in Sweden under three minutes. At the end of 2025, that figure has improved to more than 80%. We are also constantly working to increase our efficiency. Digitalization and newly developed AI tools are simplifying our work and reducing administration. And we see continued great opportunities in this area. We are now taking the next step. Our business areas will gain more influence and control in developing their businesses. To sharpen our focus on customers, business and productivity, the work of developing services and solutions should be closer to those responsible for our customers. By refining and moving roles and responsibilities and working more efficiently, we can better meet customer expectations and develop our offerings. The acquisition of the Stabelo and Enter card have been completed. This will also provide us with new business opportunities and I've had the privilege of welcoming all our new colleagues to the bank. These acquisitions and the changes we are now implementing are all contributing to our 1527 plan. We are now working to update our strategies and plans for Entercard, and in connection with our next quarterly report, we will present what this entails for the bank going forward. During the year, Swedbank's lending increased by 108 billion Swedish kronor, excluding FXFX. Of these, 47 billion Swedish kronor was lending to corporates. Entecard and Stabelo contribute with 44 billion Swedish kronor, and private loans increased organically by 17 billion Swedish kronor. Our mortgage portfolio is growing, and during the quarter, lending in mortgages increased by 23 billion Swedish kronor, excluding currency effects in Sweden. Of this amount, 17 billion Swedish kronor came from the acquisition of Stabelo. Lending volumes in our own channels in Sweden increased by just over 4 billion Swedish kronor. And that means we have doubled our market share of new mortgages sold in our own channels in 2025 compared to 2024. But that is not enough. We want to grow at least in line with the market. Savings continued their positive development and net inflows to Swedbank Robo amounted to 11 billion Swedish kronor during the quarter. At the beginning of 2026, premium and private banking will celebrate two years as its own business area. We are expanding our customer base and we strengthened our premium offering during the quarter. The corporate business is developing strongly both in Sweden and in the Baltics. In Sweden, our market share increased by 0.5 percentage points to 15.2% at the end of November. We have a competitive offering and a strong customer focus. By building sector teams in defence, food production and forestry and agriculture, we strengthen our capacity to advise customers in these sectors. At the same time, we continue to focus on local business relationships with small and medium-sized companies by strengthening our local presence. On September 1st, Our partnership with the new investment bank SB1 Markets was officially launched. They have had a good start in Sweden and have completed several deals. And as you know, Swedbank owns 20% of SB1 Markets. Given the geopolitical tensions, we continue to strengthen our resilience. Swedbank has good ability and preparedness to manage the associated risks. After the end of the quarter, Swedbank was informed that the U.S. Department of Justice had closed its investigation into the bank without enforcement. That leaves us with one American investigation ongoing, involving the Department of Financial Services in New York. We cannot assess when it will be concluded, whether we will get any fines, and if we do get fines, the size of such a potential fine. Finally, let me say a few words about the bank's social commitment. In 2025, we met more than 100,000 children and young people in Sweden and educated them in personal finance. And at the end of last year, Swedbank donated 10 million euros to the Vilnius University Foundation to support growth and prosperity in Lithuania. These are just a few examples of our effort to create financial health and economic stability in our home markets. With that, let me hand over to our CFO, Jon, who will deep dive into the numbers.

speaker
Jon Lederfelt
CFO

Thank you, Jens. Let me now walk you through the fourth quarter. We delivered a strong result with volume growth across markets and increasing income. We have continued our focus on long-term shareholder value through business growth and cost efficiency. Cost income ratio in the fourth quarter was 0.36 and return on equity 14.7%. As you know, this quarter we have consolidated both Entercard and Stabilo into our numbers. However, keep in mind that they did not add a full quarter effect. Entercard was incorporated as of December 1st and added 27 billion of lending. Stabelo was incorporated as of November 4th and added 17 billion of mortgages. The CT1 effect was in total 50 basis points in the quarter. As communicated earlier, we will de-risk Entercard's consumer finance business as the risk level is too high. The risk level for new lending has been adjusted. Our intention is also to divest Entercard's back book of consumer finance loans and going forward we will report it as held for sale. We have worked with strengthening an organization and it will be effective as of March 1st. The strategic review of Entercard is aligned with this and we will hence come back in conjunction with the Q1 report with more details and how this supports our 1527 plan. Lending volumes grew by 3% in the quarter. Mortgage volumes in Sweden sold through our own channels increased by 4.1 billion, while the savings banks reduced their mortgage volumes on our balance sheet by 1.9 billion. Our Swedish mortgage front book market share in November sold through own channels was 11%, still below the back book market share of 18%. In total, with Savings Bank's volumes on our balance sheet, we have a market share of 22%, the largest actor on the Swedish mortgage market. Stabilo's growth has picked up as Swedbank's strong balance sheet enables lending up to 85% in loan-to-value. In the corporate business in Sweden, the positive development continued with increasing volumes, mainly within the property management and public sector. In Baltic banking, corporate loan demand continued to be strong across sectors, leading to a loan growth of 5 billion in the quarter. Customer deposits increased in the quarter, driven by Baltic banking. where we had a good growth in both private and corporate deposits. In Lithuania, deposits increased in the end of the year following the usual pattern due to the annual one-month extra salary. In Sweden, private deposits decreased slightly as consumption is picking up. Corporate deposits in Sweden were impacted by end-of-year effects, mainly driven by the larger institutions as normal. Net interest income was unchanged compared to the previous quarter. We saw continued impact from lower rates. However, organic growth and acquisitions partly mitigated this. Higher business volumes had a positive impact of 72 million in the quarter. With lower policy rates, our cash with central banks generate less income, but this is partly offset by lower wholesale funding costs. The Swedish central bank cut the policy rate effective as of 1st of October, and ECB's latest rate cut was in June. By the end of the year, these policy rate changes were fully priced in. Hence, we should see the full quarterly NII effect of the rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. Net commission income increased in the quarter. driven mainly by securities and corporate finance, where the annual market maker fees contributed positively. We also had a one-off effect relating to the closure of some retail products, which were phased out several years ago. Asset management commissions benefited from strong net inflows of 11 billion and positive stock market development. Measured by asset under management, Ruber is the largest player in the fund market in Sweden and the Baltics. Card commissions were lower in the quarter, in line with normal pattern. Net gains and losses increased from an already high level and amounted to 982 million. Income was strong, driven by client trading, The Treasury result was impacted by unrealized evaluation effects in derivatives and equity holdings. The business activity remained high despite some seasonal slowdown towards the end of the year. Other income increased by 1%. Net insurance decreased, mainly driven by revaluation effects. A reminder of two things here. In the result from associated companies, we now report the ownership stake of SB1 markets. An enter card is fully consolidated since December 1st. So in the fourth quarter, only two months are included under other income. As usual, also a reminder here that our collaboration with the savings banks include cost sharing for IT development and administrative services. The savings bank's share of the cost is included in Swedbank's total cost. And you can see the corresponding income under other income. We delivered on the 2025 cost guidance of 25.3. which gives an underlying cost growth of around 3%, adjusted for the VAT recoveries and the acquisitions. Costs in the fourth quarter were 4% higher compared to the previous quarter, but as you know, we had a number of moving parts this time. We have during the fourth quarter received VAT recoveries of $963 million, for the years 2019 to 2023, this including 125 million for the year 2021. Our two acquisitions added 180 million to the fourth quarter cost. So what does this mean for 2026? Our full year expenses for 2025 were 24.5 billion. However, our underlying expenses were somewhat higher, in total 25.1. This due to the one-off VAT recoveries of 1.5 billion, the temporary high investments of 800 million, and fourth quarter costs related to Entercard and Stabelo of 180 million. Going into 2026, we also need to include the current run rate for our two acquisitions in order to have the correct starting point. These add 1.6 billion, which together with our underlying expenses of 25.1 gives a new starting point of 26.7 billion. We expect costs to grow by approximately 3% in 2026, meaning costs of around 27.5 billion. This is net of efficiencies, headwinds as well as investments and based on current FX rates. Strict cost control and focus on efficiency is key. Asset quality is solid. Total impairments for the fourth quarter amounted to 355 million. The macroeconomic outlook has continued to improve. and led to a release of 186 million. Rating and stage migrations led to credit impairments of 433 million, mainly due to downgrades of a few corporate customers. This is partly offset by the continued release of the post-model adjustment, which now stands at 131 million. The quarter also included effects from ENTECAD that in some increased credit impairments by 415 million, mainly due to the 354 million day one accounting effect for stage one exposures. The estimated overall impact from ENTECAD going forward on the credit impairment ratio is an increase of one to two basis points. I feel comfortable with our strict credit origination standards and the solid collaterals that secure our lending. Our CET1 capital ratio was 17.8%. REA increased in the quarter due to lending growth and the annual revision of operational risks, which led to an increase due to the update of the rolling three-year average income. Furthermore, as previously communicated, the acquisition of Stabilo and Entercard led to a reduction of the CET1 capital ratio of around 50 basis points. The Board proposed a total dividend of SEK 29.8 per share, of which SEK 20.45 is ordinary dividend and 9.35 is special dividend. This reduces the buffer requirement to around 300 basis points. Our capital target remains unchanged, with a buffer range of 100 to 300 basis points above the requirement. And, over time, we're targeting the midpoint, 200 basis points. To conclude, we continue to focus on growth and efficiency. We deliver strong profitability while maintaining prudent underwriting standards, strong liquidity and capital positions. With that, back to you, Jens.

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