Swedbank AB (publ)

Thank you for dialing in this morning. I am Maria Kahneman, Head of Investor Relations here at Swedbank. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2025 results presentation. I'm joined today by our CEO, Jens Henriksson, and our CFO, Jon Lederfelt. Jens and Jon will start with their presentation, and then there will be an opportunity to ask questions. With that, I would like to hand it over to Jens.

Thank you, Maria. 2025 was a successful year for Swedbank. The target of a sustainable return on equity of 15% was achieved. During 2025, the global economy was, despite tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, more resilient than expected. A few weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund released an update to its world economic outlook. It revised the world growth forecast slightly upwards for this year against the backdrop of a steady and resilient economy. However, with renewed global tensions and strained public finances, global growth could be curbed. In our home markets, the economic situation continues to brighten thanks to large investments and strong private consumption. In Sweden, the recovery began in the second half of 2025 and our economies expect growth of more than 2.5% in 2026. Lithuania had a strong development in 2025, and growth is expected to pick up further this year. In Estonia and Latvia, growth also is likely to rise in 2026. In these times, Swedbank has once again delivered a strong result. For the fourth quarter, we saw a return on equity of 14.7% and a return on equity for the full year was 15.2%. Costs developed as planned and the cost-to-income ratio was 0.36% both during the quarter and for the full year. Cost control is a strategically important issue and is reflected in all parts of the bank. Credit quality is solid. Earnings per share for 2025 amounted to 28 Swedish kronor and 98 euro. The Board of Directors is proposing to the Annual General Meeting a total dividend of 29 kronor and 80 öre per share, of which 9 kronor and 35 öre is a special dividend on the basis of the bank's strong capital position. Our CET1 capital buffer then amounts to 3 percentage points. Swedbank has a strong capital and liquidity position. During the past few years, we have, by strengthening governance and internal controls, improved work methods and investments in new technology, created a stable foundation for the bank. Now we are looking ahead with increased focus on our customers. At our investor day in June last year, we presented our direction, Swedbank 1527. And it has a clear customer focus. We will strengthen our customer interactions, grow our volumes and increase our efficiency. Availability and efficiency are fundamental. Succeeding in these areas will enable us to be even more proactive, meet more customers and do more business. And in these areas, we've already made significant progress. Our availability in Sweden increased significantly last year. In 2025, we had over 30% more calls with our customers than the year before. At the end of 2024, we answered 29% of incoming calls in Sweden under three minutes. At the end of 2025, that figure has improved to more than 80%. We are also constantly working to increase our efficiency. Digitalization and newly developed AI tools are simplifying our work and reducing administration. And we see continued great opportunities in this area. We are now taking the next step. Our business areas will gain more influence and control in developing their businesses. To sharpen our focus on customers, business and productivity, the work of developing services and solutions should be closer to those responsible for our customers. By refining and moving roles and responsibilities and working more efficiently, we can better meet customer expectations and develop our offerings. The acquisition of the Stabelo and Enter card have been completed. This will also provide us with new business opportunities and I've had the privilege of welcoming all our new colleagues to the bank. These acquisitions and the changes we are now implementing are all contributing to our 1527 plan. We are now working to update our strategies and plans for Entercard, and in connection with our next quarterly report, we will present what this entails for the bank going forward. During the year, Swedbank's lending increased by 108 billion Swedish kronor, excluding FXFX. Of these, 47 billion Swedish kronor was lending to corporates. Entecard and Stabelo contribute with 44 billion Swedish kronor, and private loans increased organically by 17 billion Swedish kronor. Our mortgage portfolio is growing, and during the quarter, lending in mortgages increased by 23 billion Swedish kronor, excluding currency effects in Sweden. Of this amount, 17 billion Swedish kronor came from the acquisition of Stabelo. Lending volumes in our own channels in Sweden increased by just over 4 billion Swedish kronor. And that means we have doubled our market share of new mortgages sold in our own channels in 2025 compared to 2024. But that is not enough. We want to grow at least in line with the market. Savings continued their positive development and net inflows to Swedbank Robo amounted to 11 billion Swedish kronor during the quarter. At the beginning of 2026, premium and private banking will celebrate two years as its own business area. We are expanding our customer base and we strengthened our premium offering during the quarter. The corporate business is developing strongly both in Sweden and in the Baltics. In Sweden, our market share increased by 0.5 percentage points to 15.2% at the end of November. We have a competitive offering and a strong customer focus. By building sector teams in defence, food production and forestry and agriculture, we strengthen our capacity to advise customers in these sectors. At the same time, we continue to focus on local business relationships with small and medium-sized companies by strengthening our local presence. On September 1st, Our partnership with the new investment bank SB1 Markets was officially launched. They have had a good start in Sweden and have completed several deals. And as you know, Swedbank owns 20% of SB1 Markets. Given the geopolitical tensions, we continue to strengthen our resilience. Swedbank has good ability and preparedness to manage the associated risks. After the end of the quarter, Swedbank was informed that the U.S. Department of Justice had closed its investigation into the bank without enforcement. That leaves us with one American investigation ongoing, involving the Department of Financial Services in New York. We cannot assess when it will be concluded, whether we will get any fines, and if we do get fines, the size of such a potential fine. Finally, let me say a few words about the bank's social commitment. In 2025, we met more than 100,000 children and young people in Sweden and educated them in personal finance. And at the end of last year, Swedbank donated 10 million euros to the Vilnius University Foundation to support growth and prosperity in Lithuania. These are just a few examples of our effort to create financial health and economic stability in our home markets. With that, let me hand over to our CFO, Jon, who will deep dive into the numbers.

Thank you, Jens. Let me now walk you through the fourth quarter. We delivered a strong result with volume growth across markets and increasing income. We have continued our focus on long-term shareholder value through business growth and cost efficiency. Cost income ratio in the fourth quarter was 0.36 and return on equity 14.7%. As you know, this quarter we have consolidated both Entercard and Stabilo into our numbers. However, keep in mind that they did not add a full quarter effect. Entercard was incorporated as of December 1st and added 27 billion of lending. Stabelo was incorporated as of November 4th and added 17 billion of mortgages. The CT1 effect was in total 50 basis points in the quarter. As communicated earlier, we will de-risk Entercard's consumer finance business as the risk level is too high. The risk level for new lending has been adjusted. Our intention is also to divest Entercard's back book of consumer finance loans and going forward we will report it as held for sale. We have worked with strengthening an organization and it will be effective as of March 1st. The strategic review of Entercard is aligned with this and we will hence come back in conjunction with the Q1 report with more details and how this supports our 1527 plan. Lending volumes grew by 3% in the quarter. Mortgage volumes in Sweden sold through our own channels increased by 4.1 billion, while the savings banks reduced their mortgage volumes on our balance sheet by 1.9 billion. Our Swedish mortgage front book market share in November sold through own channels was 11%, still below the back book market share of 18%. In total, with Savings Bank's volumes on our balance sheet, we have a market share of 22%, the largest actor on the Swedish mortgage market. Stabilo's growth has picked up as Swedbank's strong balance sheet enables lending up to 85% in loan-to-value. In the corporate business in Sweden, the positive development continued with increasing volumes, mainly within the property management and public sector. In Baltic banking, corporate loan demand continued to be strong across sectors, leading to a loan growth of 5 billion in the quarter. Customer deposits increased in the quarter, driven by Baltic banking. where we had a good growth in both private and corporate deposits. In Lithuania, deposits increased in the end of the year following the usual pattern due to the annual one-month extra salary. In Sweden, private deposits decreased slightly as consumption is picking up. Corporate deposits in Sweden were impacted by end-of-year effects, mainly driven by the larger institutions as normal. Net interest income was unchanged compared to the previous quarter. We saw continued impact from lower rates. However, organic growth and acquisitions partly mitigated this. Higher business volumes had a positive impact of 72 million in the quarter. With lower policy rates, our cash with central banks generate less income, but this is partly offset by lower wholesale funding costs. The Swedish central bank cut the policy rate effective as of 1st of October, and ECB's latest rate cut was in June. By the end of the year, these policy rate changes were fully priced in. Hence, we should see the full quarterly NII effect of the rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. Net commission income increased in the quarter. driven mainly by securities and corporate finance, where the annual market maker fees contributed positively. We also had a one-off effect relating to the closure of some retail products, which were phased out several years ago. Asset management commissions benefited from strong net inflows of 11 billion and positive stock market development. Measured by asset under management, Ruber is the largest player in the fund market in Sweden and the Baltics. Card commissions were lower in the quarter, in line with normal pattern. Net gains and losses increased from an already high level and amounted to 982 million. Income was strong, driven by client trading, The Treasury result was impacted by unrealized evaluation effects in derivatives and equity holdings. The business activity remained high despite some seasonal slowdown towards the end of the year. Other income increased by 1%. Net insurance decreased, mainly driven by revaluation effects. A reminder of two things here. In the result from associated companies, we now report the ownership stake of SB1 markets. An enter card is fully consolidated since December 1st. So in the fourth quarter, only two months are included under other income. As usual, also a reminder here that our collaboration with the savings banks include cost sharing for IT development and administrative services. The savings bank's share of the cost is included in Swedbank's total cost. And you can see the corresponding income under other income. We delivered on the 2025 cost guidance of 25.3. which gives an underlying cost growth of around 3%, adjusted for the VAT recoveries and the acquisitions. Costs in the fourth quarter were 4% higher compared to the previous quarter, but as you know, we had a number of moving parts this time. We have during the fourth quarter received VAT recoveries of $963 million, for the years 2019 to 2023, this including 125 million for the year 2021. Our two acquisitions added 180 million to the fourth quarter cost. So what does this mean for 2026? Our full year expenses for 2025 were 24.5 billion. However, our underlying expenses were somewhat higher, in total 25.1. This due to the one-off VAT recoveries of 1.5 billion, the temporary high investments of 800 million, and fourth quarter costs related to Entercard and Stabelo of 180 million. Going into 2026, we also need to include the current run rate for our two acquisitions in order to have the correct starting point. These add 1.6 billion, which together with our underlying expenses of 25.1 gives a new starting point of 26.7 billion. We expect costs to grow by approximately 3% in 2026, meaning costs of around 27.5 billion. This is net of efficiencies, headwinds as well as investments and based on current FX rates. Strict cost control and focus on efficiency is key. Asset quality is solid. Total impairments for the fourth quarter amounted to 355 million. The macroeconomic outlook has continued to improve. and led to a release of 186 million. Rating and stage migrations led to credit impairments of 433 million, mainly due to downgrades of a few corporate customers. This is partly offset by the continued release of the post-model adjustment, which now stands at 131 million. The quarter also included effects from ENTECAD that in some increased credit impairments by 415 million, mainly due to the 354 million day one accounting effect for stage one exposures. The estimated overall impact from ENTECAD going forward on the credit impairment ratio is an increase of one to two basis points. I feel comfortable with our strict credit origination standards and the solid collaterals that secure our lending. Our CET1 capital ratio was 17.8%. REA increased in the quarter due to lending growth and the annual revision of operational risks, which led to an increase due to the update of the rolling three-year average income. Furthermore, as previously communicated, the acquisition of Stabilo and Entercard led to a reduction of the CET1 capital ratio of around 50 basis points. The Board proposed a total dividend of SEK 29.8 per share, of which SEK 20.45 is ordinary dividend and 9.35 is special dividend. This reduces the buffer requirement to around 300 basis points. Our capital target remains unchanged, with a buffer range of 100 to 300 basis points above the requirement. And, over time, we're targeting the midpoint, 200 basis points. To conclude, we continue to focus on growth and efficiency. We deliver strong profitability while maintaining prudent underwriting standards, strong liquidity and capital positions. With that, back to you, Jens.

Let me now summarize. Swedbank has had a successful 2025. We delivered a strong result with a return on equity of 15.2%. The Board of Directors is therefore proposing to the Annual General Meeting a total dividend of 29 kronor and 80 euro per share, of which 9 kronor and 35 euro is a special dividend on the basis of the Bank's strong capital position. Swedbank is well positioned for sustainable growth and profitability. We will strengthen our customer interactions, grow our volumes, and continue to increase our efficiency. The future of our customers is our focus. And with that, I give the word back to you, Maria.

And we will now begin the Q&A session. I'd like to start with a kind reminder to please limit yourselves to two questions per turn. Operator, please go ahead.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the telephone. You'll hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from the line of Andreas Hagenson from SEB. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. So first question on your net interest income. We saw some, of course, negative headwind in the fourth quarter from falling interest rates, and you say that that's going to spill over into Q1. But what we've been a bit disappointed about over the last year when interest rates have been coming down is, all the banks' inability to improve mortgage margins that are now continuing to be at a very, very low level. I mean, the profitability of the mortgage product is today quite unsatisfactory. So my first question is, how do you see that mortgage margins could be developing over this year?

Well, I think, thank you for that question. I think it's my time to answer that. And I would say that we do not forecast on that. But as you rightly said, it is a tough competition out there. We've seen that our market share was around 5% of new loans in our own channels in 2024. It was up to around 10% in 2025. and then we have ambitions to reach at least our MacBook market share, which is 18%. But the competition is tough. Hello? Hello, I think I gave an abrupt answer, but the answer is that the competition is tough.

Yeah, that's fine. I mean... You have, of course, discounts. That's how the Swedish mortgage market works. Are you currently working with the discounts in order to improve the margins in that way?

Well, it is a competitive market, and I'm not going to talk about exactly how we meet our customers. But I think our offering, the key point is that we come as a full-service bank, and that means that we have attractive prices, we are much faster, and we're available. And those who seek total digital solutions, they can go to Stabelo, and we've seen that they have gained market share as well.

And then my second question on capital. And, Johan, you mentioned already that it's still the 200 pips midpoint that you're targeting over time. Could I just ask you, is the timing of moving towards 200 related to the final investigation that's going on in the U.S.? ?

Well, I think I'd answer that in a little bit overall perspective. And that is to say that we have the capital buffer range, which is between 100 and 300 basis points. And as you said, in our 1527 plan, we target the middle of it, i.e. 200 basis points. And then talking about the dividend, we have a dividend policy of 60 to 70 percent with an earnings per share of 29 kronor gives us an order dividend of what is a 20 kronor and 45 öre. And on top of this, the board has proposed an extra dividend of 9 kronor and 35 öre. That means that we have a total dividend of 29 kronor and 8 euro. And with this proposal to the AGM, Swedbank is within the capital buffer range. Further capital release continues to be a judgment call, depending on several uncertainties, such as the long-running U.S. investigation, timing of IRB approvals, and the uncertain world we live in. And we have no intention of holding more capital than necessary. Okay.

Thanks very much.

The next question comes from the line of Gulnara Saitkulova from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Just to follow up on the prior question, you mentioned the competitive nature of the Swedish market and given that, could you remind us how you are approaching the defense of your back book market share? Are you prepared to be more flexible on the repricing to retain the existing customers Or margin protection is the primary focus?

Well, of course, as Johan and I usually say, it's always a balance between market share and profitability. We've said that we want to increase the market share. And when we work with our customers, always have individual price setting. And I think the main problem for us has been that we have not been fast enough and not available enough. And I boosted about that in my introduction because that's something we're very proud of. With fewer people working with this, we've managed to reach above 80% of the calls that I answer within three minutes. And we have had 30% more calls with our customers. And last time I checked, I think we had a waiting time of five. 14 or 13 seconds, I don't remember. But the key point is we want to be available, we want to be fast, and we want to grow.

Thank you. And the second question on the volumes in Sweden and the Baltics. How are you thinking about the long road into this year? And in particular, given the fiscal stimulus in Sweden and a more constructive outlook for consumer sentiment and confidence, where do you expect the long-growth in Sweden to settle? Would single-digit long-growth be a fair estimate for Sweden in 2026? And how do trends differ between households and corporate lending?

Let me take that as well, and let me take it sort of a broader perspective in the sense that, as I said in my introduction, the global economy has been a little bit more resilient than expected, and you saw this slightly upward revision by the IMF. But that was then closed before the trade tensions fared up again, which of course increased headwinds. The good thing about Swedbank is that we operate in a region with very healthy fundamentals. Strong public finances, low government debt, real wage growth, innovative companies, profitable banks and low interest rates means that our home markets remain well prepared for the future. And I mentioned the growth figures. Overall, loan demand from both corporates and private customers is still somewhat muted. In the Baltic, demand is stronger. And in terms of trade policies impacting our region, we are, as always, very close to our customers. And we can see only limited effects on companies directly exposed to increased tariffs. And the key point is that we expect growth to come from strong public investments and strong consumption. We do not go out and forecast what loan growth is what we expect for this year. But looking back at 2025, you talked about we increased our loan book with 108 billion Swedish kronor with excluding FX effects.

Thank you.

We now have a question from the line of Martin Ekstedt from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. So first, congratulations on the closure of the Department of Justice investigation. So just quickly, the outstanding DFS New York investigation, how does this differ in scope from the one undertaken by the Department of Justice? That's my first question.

Well, I don't want to get into the scope, but as I said, we've closed now the U.S. Department of Justice without any further action. That is, of course, a relief, but we are still on investigation by the Department of Financial Services in New York. I still do not know the timetable. I still don't know whether we will get any fines. And if we do get fines, I cannot estimate the size of those. And we've been as transparent as possible during this long-running process. And when something material happens, we'll continue to adhere to that principle.

Okay, thank you. And then secondly, we have some long-end yield curves deepening behind us now, and we've seen some upwards movements on your longer-term mortgage rates as a result. But as Andreas alluded to in his question earlier, it's not really translated into mortgage margin improvement so much yet. So what is your experience currently of customers electing longer-term fixed-rate mortgages instead of the three-month floating ones? that would clearly help your margins. We can see limited movement in Statistics Sweden data on a systemic level, but what is your own experience from your customer base?

We see the interest for floating rate mortgages is still high, so we see no major movements towards fixed rates, rather the opposite. Okay, thank you.

The next question comes from the line of Magnus Andersson from ABG. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. First of all, on lending, we saw that your loan growth in the VOTIX was 10% year-on-year in local currencies. If you can tell us what you think about the sustainability of the re-leveraging that seems to take place currently, and secondly, If you could just give us some outlook about what you, if anything has changed on the bank tax front there. And secondly, just on your cost target, if you can give us some color on what is embedded there in terms of headcount development and net IT investments, please.

Well, don't get me going about bank taxes, because then I need to sort of give the whole landscape. I do that, and then you and you can follow up there. First, as I've done now for many quarters, let me remind you, we banks are an important part of our societies. We channel our customers' hard-earned deposits to lending, thus empowering people and businesses to create a sustainable future. And to do that, we need to be profitable. And a sustainable bank is a profitable bank. We are proud taxpayers that contribute to the financing of welfare and security in our home markets. What we do not like are sector-specific taxes, retroactive measures and an unpredictable regulatory environment. What we do like is equal treatment, a rule-based system and an investment climate that fosters growth, financial stability and sustainable transformation. With that said, let me do a quick tour across our four home markets. In Estonia, corporate taxes are increasing. In Lithuania, corporate taxes are also up. And on top of this, since 2020, there is a 5% extra tax on banks. In Latvia, we are into the second year of three years with an investor tax on NII. That is bad for the investment climate and thus the Latvian economy. During 2025, our Latvian loan portfolio increased enough to give us deduction of one quarter on the investor tax. In Sweden, the government has decided on a base deduction to the bank tax while delivering the same tax revenues. The tax rate is therefore raised from six to seven basis points in 2026, and a government inquiry will investigate the future design of bank tax further. Another de facto tax on the banking system is that since the end of October last year, we have been obliged to place an interest-free deposit of 6 billion kroner with the Riksbank. Johan?

Thank you. If I just add the numbers on the bank tax, then you know in Sweden the risk tax due to the base deduction that Jens talked about was increased to six basis points. That had an impact of us of 50 million, around 50 million. Then you have the six billion in the Riksbank's reserve requirements that we do not get an interest rate form. The cost for that until June and then for 2026, which is the period, is 71 million. And we are reporting that under bank tax, and we've taken the full cost up front in this quarter. So the total 71 million is accounted for in this quarter. If I then move back to your question on cost target FTE and IT, I mean, our cost target of 27.5 is inclusive of the fact that we know that we need to continue to invest quite a lot in order to make sure that we are relevant for our customers also going forward. So that is included in that. Then we do not forecast on FTEs. We have a strict hiring policy. We know that we need to continue to work heavily on efficiencies. Otherwise, we will not be able to meet a long-term objective that we set out when we presented 1527, namely to over time, in a stable retro requirement, to increase profit over time. In order to do so, we need to improve efficiencies. And of course, if you extrapolate that in the long run, then it will be very restrictive on FTEs and rather downwards and upwards, but we don't forecast that in the short term.

Okay, thank you. Two follow-ups. First of all, my question regarding taxes was really if there is anything new on the horizon in the Baltics, but it doesn't sound like it. And secondly, if you could comment on volume growth in the Baltics and the re-leverage that's ongoing, sustainability there, what do you see?

Sorry, I forgot that one. But no, there's nothing new. The Lithuanian bank tax is falling off this year or has been falling off. Remember, though, that there is a 5% extra corporate income tax that is permanent for banks in Lithuania. The Latvians, as Jens alluded to, we have no news on any changes. Estonia, there is no bank tax, and they also withdraw the increased corporate income tax. It's not a bank tax, but they changed that. So short answer, no. When it comes to the sustainability of the growth in the Baltics, Keep in mind that the loan to GDP, especially in Latvia and Lithuania, is very low, around 20 percent in Lithuania, both for corporate and private. So there is room to have a good and high continued increase without creating balances in that sense. The worry from our side would then rather be on the quite high salary inflation. If that is not met over time by productivity improvements, then that in the longer run risk leading to some imbalances. But otherwise, the lending growth is not In Latvia it's even so that, I mean, if you go back to the financial crisis, it's been a continuous deleveraging in the society. Estonia has leveled out a bit. So I think it is sustainable as long as other things in the economy is sort of sustainable as well, and not at least that the wage growth is in line over time with productivity.

Okay, thank you.

We now have a question from the line of Sophie Petersens from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Yeah, hi. This is Sophie from Goldman Sachs. Thanks a lot for taking my question. So my first question would be on entry card. You mentioned a few times that you plan to de-risk and cost of risk will only be one to two basis points higher. If you look at the 2025 numbers, cost of risk would have been kind of six basis points roughly. How should we think about the net interest income impact from the de-risking and also the fact that you're selling some of the back book of entry card? And then the second question would be on the VAT refunds. You had one and a half billion of VAT refunds in 2021. How should we think about VAT refunds in 26?

Thank you, Sophie. Yeah, you're right. We've put up, and I guess your question on NII and Anticard is then referring to the fact that I said that we will From going forward, we will report the back book of consumer finances held for sale. It means that in the longer run, we would want to sell it. The new inflow has been adjusted. It will take some time. It's not going to happen in the near future, but over time that will go out. I also said that we will implement strengthening of our organization in the future. as of March 1st, and that we look at the ENTCAD strategy in conjunction with that. So when we present the Q1 report, we will come back with more details on both those matters, how they're linked together and how they support 1527. But it's no changes in the short term when it comes to the back book. When it comes to the VAT, We have then 20, 24 that we could get something back for. The amounts are gradually shrinking a bit and as the interest rate has come down and going forward we have included this in our ordinary business unless something unexpected is coming. From this year, from last year, when we started to get the VAT back, we have also adjusted sort of how much VAT that we account for in our business. So I don't expect the same type of amounts going forward as we have had presented for 2025. It's going to be on a different level.

Okay. And just to be clear, after 2026, we shouldn't see any more VAT refunds?

No major ones. As I said, we have 2024 that could be up for something. We haven't applied for anything there. But compared to the amounts that we've seen now historically, it's much, much smaller amounts. Then there is always sort of small adjustments in the tax paid sense, but that's not on these major levels that we've seen. So nothing major going forward is what I expect.

Thank you.

That's very clear. The next question comes from the line of Nicholas McPeith from DMB Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Thank you and good morning. So I had a question on the implications from the DOJ investigations. So now that it's settled or closed actually without any penalties and we're approaching the end of these investigations, can you comment and help us understand if you have any substantial excess resources in the bank working with these investigations or with AML that you think you can reduce. There seem to be some expectations among some investors in the market that there is significant potential here, so it would be helpful if you could help us clarify this.

Well, when we started this work, it cost a lot of money. But we've seen that that cost have decreased substantially. I think the last time we sort of gave it out as a special part of our costs was like more than a year ago. And I mean, we do not have it's very small costs associated with this.

So that's for the investigations. Could you comment on how many employees you have in the bank working with AML and what do you think is the kind of long-term level that you should be at to be compliant and be well-resourced from an AML perspective?

I would say we have around 17,000 people in the bank working, fighting money loaning, because that's everybody in the bank, and I think that's everybody's role to do that. Then we have something called economic crime prevention, which is a group within the bank, and they always continue to adjust whether they can use new technology, and we always search for efficiencies there. The key point is this is an integral part of the bank's work and it will keep on being that way, so we don't get into the same position we were a few years ago.

All right, and then my second question, just a question on the cost guidance. For the 2026 cost guidance, do you have any implementation costs for Intercard included? Have costs related to the consumer finance back book been excluded? So you're basing the cost guidance on some costs pulling off from that business being divested?

No, we have not adjusted the intercard cost going forward. We have assumed some efficiency gains from intercard, just as we generally do for the bank as a whole in the 27.5%. But then you're right that in the long run there might be other synergies that we have on a very high level talked about before. But when we present both the adjustments of the organization and the strategy for ENTICOL going forward, we will elude more on those.

Okay. Thank you.

We now have a question from the line of Jakob Kruse from autonomous research. Please go ahead.

Thank you for taking my question.

The connection with the questioner has been lost. We will proceed by taking the next question, which comes from the line of Riccardo Rovere from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my question. Just one. It's not 100% clear to me that there are new changes in the material buffer for common equity material purposes. In the foreseeable future, it's going to be 300 or maybe the middle of the range, 200 basis points. And somehow related to that, I just wanted to have an idea if you have been active in a service or you think you could be active in something that you're looking at in the foreseeable future to optimize your capital absorption. Thank you.

Thank you, Ricardo. Yes, as Jan said, we are now in our buffer range of 100 to 300. then the long-term target of 200 still stands, and when we will get in there, as Jan said, is a judgment call based on the various uncertainties. I think if you look into the future that SRTs will be a tool. We have not used it now, but we're definitely not ruling it out in the future.

Okay, thanks. Just a very, very quick follow-up. But in the foreseeable future, to then maybe geopolitical tensions, do you think it's more appropriate for the moment to stay at 300?

Well, I think you will answer directly, and that is that further capital release continues to be a judgment call, depending on the several uncertainties, such as the long-running U.S. investigation, the timing of the IRB approvals, and the uncertain world we live in. And, as I've said, we have no intention of holding more capital than necessary. Okay, thanks. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from the line of Markus Sandgren from Kepler-Chevreux. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. I was just going to come back to the capital question. The 100 bps you got in add-on in P2R for REB non-compliance, is the best guess of the net effect of that and re-inflation still 50 bps lower requirement net-net?

Thank you, Marcus. If you go back, if I take some time back, then we said that when we are through the IRB approvals, we expected at least 50 basis points of positive impact. which then mainly was related to the fact that we have this Pillar 2 add-on in Sweden, and the fact that that is also related to mortgages, which is under the mortgage floor. Then, when we presented the reports last year, when we had the SREP in Q3 last year, then we concluded that they had adjusted that due to the new capital adequacy rules for standardized. So we back then got a 20 bits release so of the 50 we had gotten 20. so in that sense there would be 30 basis points left of that okay thank you as a reminder if you wish to register for a question please press star and one on your telephone

We now have a question from the line of Jakob Kose from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you. I hope you can hear me this time. I just wanted to ask firstly on your AI, where your thinking is on AI. Do you see at this point near-term opportunities to reduce staff by the deployment of AI or is it still more of an exploration mode? And then my second question is just on commission income. How do you think about the, I think in the quarter you had about 100 million of one-offs, and I think it was a relatively solid quarter across most product lines. How do you think about the outlook here? Is this a line that can continue to grow, or do you need to see a need for pickup in the domestic economies?

Well, first a few words on AI and then you will follow up. We've used AI for a long time. We used that in anomaly detection and we're using it more now. And one cool thing that me and the full board was doing a few months ago was listening in on calls. And you see call summarization by AI. It's a very cool feature. And that, of course, is an instrument that our customer representatives can use to be more available because they don't have to spend that much time on writing summaries. They can be there for our customers and that's one of the reasons we're seeing that our availability has increased so much and we have so many more calls with our customers. And we see continued use of AI within the bank. That said, we steer the bank on costs and not on FTEs. And we want, which we're very clear for this, we want to do more business and we want to meet more customers. So that is my point on that.

And if I then go into the NCI, yes, you're right. We had one of roughly 100 on this, which was unrelated to retail product that we decided to close several years ago, but that has now been running off. If you look at NCI, and remember what I've said before, is that we are the biggest when it comes to Bankir betalning and payment processing in Sweden. Bankir increased the commission expense for customers by 30% in the beginning of this year. This is due to the big investments needed to transform the Swedish payment system. That is more visible. It's the same for everyone, but it's more visible for us since we are the biggest. What they also did in the fourth quarter, they added a one-off commission cost, which in our case was around 35 million, that of course is weighing on this result. I think this will be there as long as this is in the investment phase that the commission cost will be higher on that row and hence way on the net. Card commissions are seasonally a bit lower in the quarter compared to the third quarter where you have the summer months and with people traveling and so forth. But then you also have, over time, a bit movement between rows here because we are working more with concepts, both in the Baltics and Sweden, which means that some income is moved from the card line to service concepts. Over time, this is something that we believe is good both for our customers and for us. Asset management is long-term growing. What you think you need to remember here is that we have around 40% of our fund capital denominated in U.S. dollars. And, of course, the strengthening of the Swedish krona is to some extent then hence counter balancing the strong stock markets in the U.S. But this is definitely over time a good and growing income for us. And if you look at 1527, This is an important area and Jens also talked about now celebrating two years with the premium and private banking business area which is also testament to that this is an area where we see long-term growth and it is important and it's in our DNA.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Maria Kahneman for any closing remarks.

Well, I'll steal the word then and say thank you for calling in. And I think as you and I have talked about today is that Swedbank is well positioned for sustainable growth and profitability by strengthening our customer interactions, grow our volumes and continue to increase efficiency and the future of our customers, our focus. Looking forward meeting you either on the road, on Teams or next time in April. Until then, take care and thank you for calling in.