Vestum AB (publ)

Hi and welcome to our presentation of Vestern's report for the second quarter 2024. My name is Simon Gothberg and I'm the CEO of the company and together with me also have Olof Andersson, CFO of the company. Now let's have a look at some highlights from Q2. We have successfully continued to reduce financial net debts including earnouts by some 53 million. And we have seen a general positive shift in how our businesses view their market outlook. At the same time, activity was lower than in the previous year with organic growth of minus 9% and a decline in EBITDA margin of 9.7%. As with earlier this year and also in 2023 really, the water segment continues to develop strongly and is characterized by strong structural growth with a limited sensitivity to the economic cycle. This has made us to complete Vestum's first acquisition in two years after end of the quarter, which further strengthens the water segment and our position in water infrastructure. Operational cash flow amounted to 118 million, bringing cash conversion on an LTM basis to 107%. Leverage increased dramatically. slightly to 2.7 times and going forward, we have a balanced focus in capital allocation between acquisitions and reducing leverage. Let's have a look at the segments and starting with the water segments. As mentioned, we are experiencing continued stable demand and profitability with the strongest developments in the UK during the quarter. There are some really strong reference figures for the segments as there was an extreme drought in the Nordics in April, May 2023, which had a positive impact on volumes and profitability in the previous year. And this year, extreme weather was absent, but we still managed to improve the EBITDA margin and deliver an EBITDA of 48 million, which is in line with last year. And we're expecting solid demand and profitability going forward. and we'll continue to explore acquisition opportunities after I've completed a really great acquisition to the segment. Again, as mentioned after end of the quarter, and we currently have ongoing discussions with targets in all of our markets. Moving on to the services segment, here we're exposed to the property market, which remained a bit challenging in the second quarter, and this has impacted both volumes and profitability. The lower margin was mainly driven by our product companies, which constitute some 25% of the segment. We have for the first time since the market began to decline seen a positive shift in market outlook. And this is mainly true for the product companies, but also in installation. although they are more natural or neutral in their growth prospects with an expectation to return to growth in the latter part of the second half of 2024. Now lastly, let's have a look at the infrastructure segment. We are generating lower volumes and profitability compared to last year, mainly driven by economic downturn, but also strong reference figures and project timing. This segment is generally positioned later in the economic cycle than services and water, which means that we are now experiencing a downturn for the first time since the economic cycle shifted downwards. And this, however, shouldn't be exaggerated, as it explains only a part of the decline, as again, some businesses face tough reference figures, while some of the larger companies in the segment are between product completion and project starts. And we have, similar to the first quarter, continued to win new projects and the overall market outlook is now more positive than earlier this year. That said, the performance in the second quarter is expected to spill over to the second half of the year and the short-term market challenges remain Now let's talk a bit about acquisitions. We are very pleased that we have completed the first acquisition in two years. And this is an acquisition of PDAS, a UK market leader in wastewater pumping stations. PDAS is an add-on acquisition to Pump Supplies, which is Vestum's largest company and naturally the largest company in the water segment. And the UK water Infrastructure market is heavily under-invested and therefore growing rapidly and pump supplies has developed extremely well in the last five years and continue to do so. With the add-on of PDAS, we have now further improved our strong position in this exciting market. PDAS generates a majority of its profits from intelligent monitoring systems using remote telemetry and cloud-based technology. with a subscription business model. And this means that roughly 60% of their profits are coming from recurring revenue streams. And we can now use the broad customer base in pump supplies, which have been built over the past four decades to further accelerate growth. Both management teams are super excited and already getting started with working on synergies between the companies, as shown in the slide here, sales and pump supplies. is nearly doubling after the acquisition as PDAS generates sales of some 210 million per year and growing. Now over to Olof.

Thank you. So let's have a look at our net sales and EBITDA development over the past quarters. And let's begin with the chart on the left, which shows net sales where we saw a decrease compared to the same period last year. driven by the services and infrastructure segments, as Simon just mentioned. And if we move on to the chart in the middle showing EBITDA development, we see pretty much the same pattern, again, driven by the services and infrastructure segments. And finally, in the chart to the right, the EBITDA margin basically followed the same pattern as EBITDA, decreasing from 11.6% to to 9.7% compared to the same period last year. And moving on to net sales growth, Q2 net sales decreased by 10% compared to last year, and the organic growth drove that decrease by being negative 9%. Worth noting is also that we had some negative impact on net sales growth due to the divestment of Ploetslager. We'll proceed to have a look at operating cash flow during the last 12 months. And the operating cash flow decreased compared to the previous quarter due to lower EBITDA. And the LTM cash conversion was slightly lower than the previous quarter, than in Q1, which in turn was due to a slightly negative networking capital development. So that was operating cash flow. Now let's look at the free cash flow. And we define free cash flow as cash flow from operating activities. So that is including interest and taxes paid and changing net worth in capital. And then we subtract capex spending, i.e. investment in fixed assets. And we also subtract leasing and amortization. So basically, Free cash flow is cash that can be used for dividends, acquisitions and repayment of debt. And for the last 12 months, the free cash flow amounted to 441 million SEK, down from 496 million SEK in the previous quarter. And the main drivers of the decrease were lower operating activities, including the network and capital development. And let's move on to the net debt and leverage development. And the net debt is here represented by the pink bars and amounted to 2.0 billion SEC down from 2.6 billion SEC in the same period last year, which corresponds to a decrease of 20% compared to last year. Leverage increased from 2.5 to 2.7 times sequentially from last quarter, driven primarily by paid out earn out debt. but also to some extent by lower EBITDA. We reduced the earn-out debt by 127 million SEC from 207 to 80 million SEC in the second quarter. And when taking into account earn-out debt, the leverage multiple increased from 2.7 times in Q1 to 2.8 times. in Q2, driven by a decrease in EBITDA over the last 12 months. And by that, I hand it back to you, Simon.

All right, thank you. So in summary, the quarter generated lower volumes and profitability than last year, but as in the last 18 to 24 months, we have successfully reduced a net debt including earnouts. The water segment, which is rather insensitive to the economic cycle, continues to generate solid profitability with an improved EBITDA margin, 23.7%. We have gladly resumed acquisition agenda after two years of full focus on the balance sheet, and we will continue to evaluate acquisitions in the water segment that can generate high returns. Capital allocation-wise, We're balanced between further M&A and reducing leverage, and we will invest our capital where we can achieve the highest returns at reasonable risk. Leverage increased slightly in the quarter to 2.7 times and is expected to remain above our financial target of 2.5 times for the remainder of the year. Overall, Vestum is positioned early in the economic cycle. And even though market uncertainties remain in the short term, we have seen a general positive trend shift in the market outlook for our companies throughout the quarter.

And with that, we open up for questions.

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Simon Johnson from ABG. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. A few questions from my side. First, starting with the water segment, where comps were a bit tougher here. more specifically you know less help from weather conditions as i understand um so so far how has that translated into q3 you think in other words do you think you will have more help by the weather in q3 yeah hi good morning simon it's uh simon here as well um well well yeah so i would say that we could um i mean obviously we did we did quite well in the second quarter in the water segment although um

extreme weather was absent and this was mainly due to the UK operation where the demand remains high and we're expecting stable demand really throughout the segment in the second half of the year and Q2 2023 had some extreme weather but in Q3 and Q4 last year there wasn't really anything extraordinary. So I would say that the reference figures aren't at the same level in the second half now as they were in Q2.

All right. Got it. That's clear. Then moving on to services where the market remains challenging. You commented specifically that product companies drove the weaker performance. Could you just elaborate a bit more on that? You mentioned briefly that there's a positive shift in the market outlook. So maybe elaborate a bit more on that, please.

Yeah, sure. So I would say that overall, the lead times are much, much shorter on the product side than they are on the installation side. So basically there was a bit of a downturn starting in the second quarter for the product companies. But we have seen a rebound in sort of customer confidence for those companies. So we're expecting to get back to sort of more normal figures for the product companies in the second half of the year. That being said, they represent roughly 25% of the segment. And for the remaining 75%, Those companies are exposed to energy efficiency measures in properties, mostly installation companies, and they are a bit more neutral in when they can start achieving growth again. Don't think that will happen in the third quarter, but in the latter part of this year, we're expecting to see a rebound for that part of the segments.

Okay, so you expect a rebound for the service part of services basically, but can you also talk a bit about what you saw here in Q2 compared to Q1, for example, in recent quarters for the service businesses, if there were any changes in the performance and underlying market, or was it more similar?

Yeah, I would say it was slightly better in the installation side of things, right? If we were to only look at the installation companies, then the margin would have been higher in the second quarter for the services companies. And I guess we're expecting that sort of similar performance in the third quarter for those companies. So a bit better than Q1 for the installation companies in the second quarter.

Got it. Thank you. And on the PDS acquisition, You talked briefly about synergies between pump supplies that you expect to realize, but can you talk a bit more specifically about what kind of synergies you are seeing?

Yeah, sure. So both businesses are obviously procuring water pumps and there will be some procurement synergies for these businesses that are rather that should be rather quickly to to extract and then on the on the sales side we have in the acquiring company the the company that we already own obviously right pump supplies they are extremely busy as seen in the water segment throughout the last the last couple of quarters and they don't really have time to take on the the services contracts that that they receive from um from clients, and now we can sort of pass those over to PDAS. So I think there will be both revenue and cost synergies, both in the short term and in the long term, really.

Got it. Thank you. Maybe you already said this, but when do you expect the acquisition to close?

Yeah, sure. So it closed on the day that we announced. So it was closed last week. So we will consolidate into the third quarter and impact both balance sheet and income statement and so forth.

All right. Thanks. And one last question from me on the working capital. How should we think about the development into the second half of this year, specifically in regards to project completions and starts in infra?

Hi, Simon. This is Ola speaking.

So the way we should think about that is the networking capital can swing quite a bit between the quarters. And when it comes to the third quarter, which we're entering now, so usually you have a kind of networking capital release during the summer as a result of the business that has been occurring during Q2. However, you typically see a networking capital buildup during the later part of Q3. And the networking capital development depends a lot on how intensive that business ramp up in Q3 is. So you can see actually quite substantial networking capital build up in September if the business is quite intense. On the other hand, if it's a slow ramp up during the autumn, then obviously you might not see that kind of tie up of networking capital. So to be honest, it's quite difficult to know how it's going to look. But that is the dynamics.

All right. I got it.

Thank you. That's all from me. I'll get back into the queue. Thank you.

The next question comes from Carl Bockvist from ABG.

Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Just some follow-ups there. Curious about lead times within your product businesses. Would it be fair to assume some form of between like one to two quarters being normal lead times from a placed order to delivery?

Yeah, hi Carl, it's Simon. I think that's a very good question and I think you're I think you're right when it comes to sort of the average, right? But it could also be longer. And this is one of the reasons why the infrastructure is facing tougher figures now in Q2 as the order book in general has improved and we're taking on several new projects. And for example, we won a terrific project on the railway earlier in the second quarter of 287 million. There will be we worked throughout 2025 to 2030. And that is really in the subway, actually, which is a great project. But again, it starts next year, right? So there are some longer lead times in the infrastructure segment in comparison to services and water, which is what we're diluting to when we say that they are exposed a bit later in the economic cycle than services and water. So when When we see the sort of profit bottom in services, you can expect that infrastructure would be maybe lagging one quarter.

Okay, understood. And then just to understand these effects in services here, was there anything in particular affecting the product service companies or was it just, you know, lower margins because of lower volumes year over year and these kind of, let's call it, usual drivers.

Yeah, I would say that it was pure usual drivers, nothing extraordinary on the product side of things and really nothing to mention in particular for any of the companies that stands out.

Understood. Then two questions perhaps mainly directed towards Olof and The first one, I understand now with the acquisition, this perhaps changes things a little bit. Net financials, if I just look at the pure interest cost, it looks like, based on what you wrote at least, they came down in Q2 versus Q1. Again, I understand the acquisition now makes things a bit more difficult, but would you say that the interest costs are now gradually subsiding or coming down to lower levels based on what you've done historically with a balance sheet?

Hi, yeah that is correct. Since the refinancing activities that took place in Q2 The overall effect of that is that the running interest costs are coming down. As we wrote in the report, however, we saw some one-time effects due to this actual process. So you had some negative impact in the month of April, but now in the coming months, interest costs have come down, and we expect them to going forward. Of course, you have to adjust them for the acquisition, as you rightly mentioned.

All right. Understood. That's all for me. Thank you. All right. Thank you.

The next question comes from Johan Lankvist-Sunden from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Hi, Simona. Thank you for taking my questions. Two more from my side. The first one is to get a little bit more color on the comparison during the second half. of this year, given the divestment you made late last year, the historical reports or the comments are maybe not that useful anymore. So it would be very helpful if you can just give some brief comments on if you view the comparisons in the infra and the service segment tough or maybe more neutral or easy in the coming two quarters.

I would say that starting with services, this is where we had a plot slogan that we divested in April, I think. That company generated some 5 million in EBITDA in the second half of the year, basically two and a half per quarter. I guess that stands out. Overall, I would say that the margin in Q3 and Q4 in the services segment, it's not a weak margin of 11% to 12% in the economy that they were now operating in. So I wouldn't say that they are on the weak side of things. And looking at the infrastructure segment, I mean, these are restated figures, and there hasn't been any divestments or acquisitions in this segment. And really the same thing for the services segment. I would say that the margin is rather solid, and especially the third quarter here of almost 12%. And I think as we mentioned in the report now and in the CEO comments, what we've seen in the infrastructure segment in the second quarter, similar, I guess, performance is expected. at least in the third quarter, as we remain sort of between project start and completion. And how much of that could be extracted already in Q3 remains to be seen. So we won't guide any further than that. But yeah, so I guess that's what you have to calculate with. And in the water segment, you obviously have PDAS that we have acquired that will impact the third and fourth quarter.

Yeah. Thanks for some clarification. My final question is on acquisitions. Just curious to hear how you reason regarding acquisitions going forward and how forward leaning you want to be during the fall. I understand that it's tough to comment on specific timings, but is there a reason to assume that there can come in more acquisitions during H2 this year or the kind of discussion you have or that more probability to bring acquisition being closed in 25 or so?

Yeah, I mean, I think we will remain balanced in our capital allocation strategy between reducing leverage and making acquisitions. And, you know, in a sort of normal economy, I think five to 10 acquisitions per year is reasonable, but That's not this year and most likely not next year either. We are very keen on ensuring that leverage remains at reasonable levels and our financial target of maximum two and a half times. I mean, we're very serious about that, right? So we have no ambition in driving up leverage to really high numbers just to make acquisitions. So we now made the acquisition of PDF because it's a terrific acquisition that will add so much value to to vest them overall into the water segment. There could potentially be some additional acquisitions going forward as well. But again, we will look closely at returns versus risk. If we can achieve a high return at reasonable risk, then we might go ahead and make an acquisition. But again, leverage is on top of our mind.

Excellent. Thanks for answering my questions. I'll get back in line. Okay. Thanks.

There are no more phone questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Okay.

Thanks so much for taking the time. No written questions at this point. Much appreciated and enjoy your day. Thanks so much. Thank you.