AB Volvo

Welcome to the fourth quarter press conference. Welcome here today. And we will do, as always, we will look at the presentations from our CEO and our CFO, then follow up with a Q&A session. So with that, I hand over to you, Martin.

Thank you, Johan. And also from my side, most welcome to this Q4 2023 reporting and also for the full year, by the way. And I can say that I'm pretty proud and humbled to stand here actually after a year that we have seen here, also given the rather turbulent and complex situation that we have seen around the globe. But if we start with some comments for the fourth quarter, the group continued to deliver a strong performance with, as you have seen, strong growth in revenues, plus 8% FX adjusted, increased deliveries of trucks from high levels. A service business that continue also on high levels that I think is a very good sign, showing also that activity level continues amongst our customers. and with four quarter record levels for operating income and operating margin. And the strong outcomes are linked to the professional and dedicated work from all our colleagues and business partners across the globe, given, as I said in the beginning, that we still have a lot of challenges around us. And you have heard me saying that before, and I would like to take the opportunity now, and we have also the full year report here. It's all about the people, and all our colleagues and business partners have really showed how you make a difference this quarter again. And for the full year, 2023, we achieved many different financial records and strong financial outcomes. We bypassed the 500 billion Swedish crowns in revenues. It was almost, you know... anticipated, I think, after Q3, but still a historical milestone for us as a company, but also, to our knowledge, the first Swedish industrial bypassing the 500 billion mark. And this strong revenue growth was combined with record high operating income and margin, as well as return on capital employed exceeding 36%. Then from a business standpoint, we continue to work closely with our customers also in the fourth quarter to stick to the priority, as we have said, for some quarters now of delivering as high volumes as possible to support their demand of equipment by continuously delivering on the solid order backlog. Our service operations continued at good levels, supporting the uptime and performance of our customers' fleets. And if we look into 2024, while we still see our customers' transport and infrastructure activity remaining on good levels in many of our markets, We now, as already communicated also in previous quarters, are entering into a more normalized demand situation for new vehicles and equipment on a platform of record strong profitability and high operational performance. Coming into 2024, the market is moving from a market with high demand and, in addition to that, also a pent-up demand to a more normal replacement-driven market. But I think it's important to say that, again, that is still a good market and a good place to be. Since we ran our machine at full speed all the way until year end, we are now and going forward gradually adjusting the capacity in our system to balance with this normalizing market. And we have, as you know, different flexibility tools in hand for those adjustments. Our current forecast for the 2024 total market is in line with the normalized demand, with only minor adjustments also, as some ups in Latin America, for example, some downs in Europe slightly to our forecast that we communicated in conjunction with the Q3 report. In parallel, we continue to push our transformation agenda. We will today again talk about several important launches and also investments in added new capabilities. The investments in new products and services that we have been doing on elevated levels and will continue to do are serving our customers well and will make sure that we continue to have also in the future a leading position when it comes to sustainable transport solutions and also infrastructure solutions. And as you have seen, the board proposes an ordinary dividend of 7 krona and 50 öre, and an extra dividend of 10 krona and 50 öre, reflecting the good balance between strong continuous financial strength for the group moving forward combined with attractive shareholder returns. So then if we move in a little bit to the figures, first quarter highlights then, as I said, strong results. Sales to start with growing to almost 150 billions, 148 billion, plus 8% FX adjusted. Operating income amounted to 18.4 billions with a margin of 12.4%. We released also a good amount of inventories in the fourth quarter, and the operating cash flow amounted to 22.7 billions, which elevated our net cash position to 83.4 billions. And I've already been into return on capital employed, and earnings per share rose to 5.93 Swedish kronor in relation to 3.26 last year. When it comes to volume development, increased our truck deliveries by 4% to almost 66,000 vehicles despite continued supply chain constraints, and also the six-week strike in North America. And I think that was all in all a great achievement. The deliveries of Volvo construction equipment declined by 27%, mainly driven by low deliveries in primarily China, but also Europe and to some extent in Brazil. Deliveries in North America was on par with previous years. When it comes to electrification and the progress in this area, the underlying electric demand is good. And we have high quotation level across regions. At the same time, of course, we experience now, as we do in the general market, somewhat hesitation to take in new orders from the customer side. There is a little bit of wait-and-see mode that we think is rather natural. In addition to that, we also have somewhat lower activity when it comes to the order intake from our side. since we need also to continue to deliver on the order book that we have not at least in North America for the truck side we see that more as a blip on the curve given the fact that not only orders and the demand there but also maturing the supply chains as we have talked about and this is a natural development it will not only be a straight line to heaven but we see that this transformation will has just started as you know but will continue also of course to increase the pace. What I think is important also is that we continue now to install the electric truck capabilities in all our different plants. And all truck factories in Europe are now in serial production of electric trucks. So we can really just, as we said, a mixed model assembly between conventional and electric trucks and thereby following the demand as we go forward. It is also important, and we are working a lot together with that, that we have a balance between the supply of equipment, but in addition to that also going hand in hand with charging infrastructure, generation of green energy, network capacity, etc. All parts of the value chain must continue to mature here. But with that said, we were first out in our core markets, and we will talk about the market shares later here, to push the envelope, and we will continue to push. And we are convinced that this is absolutely the future and an important part of the future. Orders in the quarter, 1,400. Deliveries, 1,700. On 12-month rolling, orders 6,000 and deliveries 5,000. So still a positive book-to-bill. When it comes to vehicle and machine sales development, strong sales growth. Then for the group, plus 9% currency adjusted. Vehicle and machine net sales were above 150 billions with strong growth as you have seen in trucks. On the back of a combination of commercial conditions, both pricing and product content, and also volumes, as I've said before here. And Volvo C declined on lower deliveries in primarily China, as we said. The volumes were down 27%, but sales of top line were down only 6%, showing also the regional mix effect that has been positive, of course. And it's also encouraging with the continued momentum for Volvo buses after the longer extension of the effects of COVID for the bus business. So they are gradually now coming back. When it comes to services, continued good demand. As I said, a very important sign, of course, as regards to activity level in most of our customers. It was plus 7% currency adjusted. And this is a result of improved commercial conditions, obviously, but also with the continuous high activity amongst our customers and the efforts to increase contract penetration and other services that are also paying off step by step. The group is pacing 12 months rolling at the solid and good level of 127 billions. Group tracts shows somewhat lower growth figures of 2%, but this is, I should say, primarily almost to the full extent related to very strong comparison figures last year when we were growing 10% efficacy adjusted year over year. And if you think about the level that we are now, it's still strong that we are continuing to grow out of that figure. Volvo buses, as I said, passenger transport are coming back very good and we see that also in the service business. Strong VFS growth from a growing business portfolio. So all in all, good results for services and an impressive achievement by the organization and of course very important for our resilience going forward. Group news. A lot of things have happened also in this quarter, I have to say. A lot of encouraging things. First and foremost, we acquired, and we are about to acquire, and we are still in the closing process, the battery business from Proterra, the division called Proterra Powered. And this is the first step in creating a battery value chain for the group in North America, but it also adds on to the group's overall battery capabilities. The deal, as I said, is expected to be closed in the first quarter of 2024. And in Q4, we also signed an option agreement to divest our defense arm that are headquartered in France, Arcus, to John Cockerill Defense. When it comes to truck news, lots of exciting news during the quarter and the beginning of 2024 in our truck business areas. A couple of days ago, we revealed the largest product launch in North America ever. And that is the all-new Volvo VNL that was launched, and it features a lot of things that I don't have time to go through here. But amongst others, striking, as you can see here also in the movie, aerodynamics. It is engineered to achieve fuel efficiency improvement of up to 10%. The range delivers improved total customer value, driver productivity, safety, and sustainability. The new Volvo VNL is designed to meet all the challenges and demands in the North American and is a platform for the future. And it's also a platform for all the different future propulsion technologies, including, of course, the current diesel technology, but also electric fuel cell and also combustion engines running on renewable fuels, including hydrogen. And at this stage, a new range comes with six different cab configurations all the way from day cab up to full height sleepers. Six years, I said here in the room, to start with six years in the making. Fantastic, exciting to be at this stage now. And this is really a platform for the future. Very, very important for our North American venture and adventure. So happy to see all these beauties hit the market now within a short year. But in addition to that, the Volvo FH Electric has been awarded International Truck of the Year 2024. It is the fourth time for the FH, the iconic FH range, to get that award. But it's the first time for all brands that a fully electric truck wins this award. Volvo Trucks has also started deliveries for fully electric trucks into Latin America. And in November, Renault Trucks and Volvo Trucks launched their new urban distribution electric truck range. And this range has been increased up to 450 kilometers, 50% shorter charging time, I should say, and new active safety features. So all this news and the all-new Volvo VNL are very good, of course, and exciting news to reveal today. But there is more coming already on Monday. Volvo Trucks will continue to launch fantastic new products and solutions that will be available for our customers around the world. Products that will continue to reduce CO2, increase customer profitability, and take safety to the next level. So also in that regard, Monday, stay tuned. Then coming into market, market environment, I know that you are... Looking forward to this section and what we will say. When it comes to the track market forecast, a rather undramatic in relation to what we discussed last time we were here together. If we start in North America, the 2023 market ended where we anticipated around 330,000 units. And for 2024, we reiterate our forecast of 290,000 units. For Europe, the 2023 level also in line, because it, of course, I mean, to fine-tune that, but it was then 342,000 units. And for 2024, we reiterate our view of a normalization of the market, but we are also adjusting slightly downwards. I think that is the main message, slightly downwards, with 10,000 units to 280,000. And it is important, as I said in the beginning, to remember that the forecast for 2024 still represents good and solid levels, both for Europe and North America. For Brazil, on the other hand, we are increasing with 10,000 units up to 90. For India, slight adjustments because it's including medium and heavy duty to 425. China, then, from a low level of 700 up to 800, primarily then driven also by renewable fuels. With this normalization, we are now gradually taking steps to adjust our capacity and cost base accordingly, utilizing the tools that we have in our hands. On truck orders and deliveries, orders were down with 9% on the back of the general normalization that we have discussed. In our main markets, why, deliveries then were up with 4%. And that was the result of both good production, despite, so to speak, also that we have the strike, but also that we were reducing inventories. The order backlog is gradually also normalizing, and we can see that the pent-up demand is now largely delivered by the industry, not at least in Europe. Lead time in North America is still a bit longer and growing in Latin America. And it's interesting, by the way, as a side note, to take a little bit longer horizon of it. Didn't have anything else to do on Sunday afternoon, so I just took it from end of quarter to 2020. Because then, as you remember, we had taken out everything at the stop phase of the pandemic, and then really got the right quality in the order board. And if you do the 14-quarter book-to-bill, you see that that is... That's pretty interesting to see that you have that type of balance. I mean, Europe and then also North America and other markets. However, normalization is in line with our focus, as I said. And all in all, we had a book to build that was 75% during the quarter. And that is, of course, also now that we are adjusting accordingly. And for us it's super important now, and we have stated that also in the upturn and in the downturn, keep the right balance between order intake, production, inventory and deliveries, so we continue to have an order book with the right quality to manage, on one side deliver reliability, at the same time manage inflation and other uncertainties. But the main priority is to maintain our commercial and price discipline. The organization has been working hard to maintain and to reach that value for our solutions and we will continue to have that as the main priority. Good truck market shares. Volvo and Renault in Europe, good levels of 26.4%. Also knowing that we had a very strong uptick 2022, so we have continued to maintain a good level here for the total market down. And just above and impressive that we sell also 70% market share on battery electric vehicles for the two brands. In North America, Volvo and Mack have been affected by specific supply chain constraints during the year, and partly, of course, by the strike for Mack primarily. The two brands had a combined market share of 15.2% for the full year. And in Brazil, Volvo's performance remains on good levels with a market share of close to 24%. Also, knowing that we were early out with Euro 6 in the beginning of the year, that hampered our market share then, but a very strong finish. And Volvo and Mack in Australia performed well with an all-time high combined market share of 26%. Construction equipment in December, VCE and the Amman Group reached an agreement whereby the Amman Group will acquire Volvo C's global ABG paver business that is following also the divestments that we did a couple of years ago when it comes to Blue Knox in U.S., The deal is subject to regulatory approval, which is expected to finalize in the first half of 2024. And it's also a part of the journey, together with Arcus, continue to prune the portfolio, decomplex and keep focus for the different business areas. Volvo CE continues also its rollout of electric construction machines, and now we've had several launches in India during this quarter at the Exconn trade show with big interest. For the market forecast, unchanged midpoints for all markets areas with the exception of Europe. where we are adjusting down with five percentage points, so largely in line with, so to speak, the general outlook also on the truck side. But for the remaining markets, then, we are keeping and reiterating what we said last time, so I will not repeat that. When it comes to orders and deliveries here, in general, both orders and deliveries are down as expected with a negative book-to-bill across regions, but highly in line with our expectations. Maybe some comments on different, if you look at the product lines, excavator segments more affected compared to wheel loaders and articulated haulers. And on the industry segment, the construction segment is more affected, of course, that you're well aware of, compared to infrastructure. However, we foresee a continuous solid demand in North America, and that's the reason why we are more or less, I mean, we have minus 5% as midpoint, but that is a good level supported by infrastructure projects while demand in Europe then, and we are decreasing that slightly softer on the back of Europe. higher interest rates and the weekend macroeconomic outlook. But overall, orders declined by 26% as we said before, mainly driven by China. Again, the solid order numbers you have to see also in North America. It was very strong order intake, 173% is the result of a very weak order intake last year, also due to restrictive slotting. So delivery decline of 27% was mainly driven then by lower deliveries in China and somewhat in Europe as well. Buses order increased 12% mainly driven by improved demand for coaches. Traveling coming back gradually and replacement need is there. Deliveries decreased by 50%, but that was also again, you know, that is shifting pretty significantly between quarters depending on deliveries and quarter four. 2022, we had big deliveries to Chile. So in comparison, that was disturbing, that picture. Book-to-bill was positive with a ratio of 1.05 or 105%. And as announced at quarter three report also, we had reached an agreement between the bodybuilder MCV for a number of buses, complete built buses, both normal and Arctic versions, as well as electric buses for intercity traffic, supporting the restructuring and the new business model for Volvo buses in Europe. And very encouraging to see in quarter four the first orders for electric city buses in this new constellation were signed. Great progress because that is a little bit earlier and more speedy than before. than anticipated. Also in Q4, Prevost in North America took its largest order ever with 250 firm orders and additional 131 optional orders to the state of New York. Penta orders increased with 1%. You can say still strong for larger yachts, for commercial vessels and industrial power generation, but weaker for smaller boats, as well as very much in line with what we've heard on trucks and construction equipment when we talk about versatile or industrial off-highway applications. Deliveries decreased by 8%, and book-to-bill was 92%. And in Q4, Volvo Penta further advanced its net zero initiatives by providing the subsystem to battery energy storage solutions in collaboration with Technogen, as you can see on the slide here. And that is then solutions for charging infrastructure for electric heavy-duty vehicles. So that is a part of our ecosystem. And on the final note, financial services, record business volume for the fourth quarter, as well as for the full year. We did see portfolio growth across most key markets, and credit portfolio has grown to 254 billion. Portfolio performance continues. to be good in most parts of the world, and that is of course driven by the good demand of transportation and construction services across the globe, resulting in strong financial health for our customers combined with good payment discipline. Also, the final note here, to help customers more easily adopt battery electric vehicle technology into their fleets, Mac are now also starting to offer usage-based leasing arrangements for medium-duty electric models, and that is then combined VFS and Mac trucks. So also a very important step now for the North American market. So by that, ladies and gentlemen, I leave the presentation for the business report end. Let Mats come up and do the financial figures.

So welcome, Mats. Thanks, Martin. So over to the financials. So this is my first full quarter, my first earnings release with the Volvo Group, and I'm truly honored to join this high-performing team. And I would like to have a special thanks to Martin and the Volvo team for a great onboarding as well. So I think it has been great. But moving into the quarter, good performance continues in the quarter, with record high sales, operating income, and margin for a fourth quarter. And looking at the cash flow, it was the second best quarter ever for the cash flow for the quarter. We had a good balance between the perform agenda to deliver here and now and also the transformation agenda that is a little bit more kind of forward-looking. On the perform side, we are driving continuous improvements through price realization to offset the underlying cost inflation. We are driving growth in our service business, and we have also started to gradually adjust production capacity and cost levels to the more normalized demand that Martin talked about. We reduced inventories in the quarter by some $8 billion, and that's obviously very important when it comes to the cash flow. But I would also say that it's extremely important to right-size the inventories when we are heading into the more normalized demand as well. And we also addressed the portfolio. We announced the initiative divestments like the Arcus and also in the construction equipment that Martin talked about. And in parallel, we continue to invest in our transformation agenda. And Martin mentioned the added capability with Proterra as well in the quarter. So all in all, to summarize, a great quarter from a performance point of view with a lot of activities going on as well in the company. If we're looking into the details, Dan, and starting off with the net sales... So the net sales increased by 10% to the fourth quarter last year, including FX net sales increased with 8%. And the FX effect on sales was mainly due to the weak Swedish krona against the euro. The increase was substantial when it comes to Europe and very much supported by 20% increases in deliveries for trucks. And that is combined with a strong price realization as well. North America is positive year over year, and that is despite the UAW strike holding back the production for Mack trucks with about six weeks in the court. And Asia, as you can see, continues to be affected by the weak construction market. Moving into the operating income on the next slide. So the adjusted operating income for the group was 18.4 billion SEK with an adjusted operating margin of 12.4%. Like previous quarters, we are maneuvering in an environment of inflation and transformation, and we continue to be successful with price realization both for vehicles and services, which contributed positively to the result year over year. The general inflation and salary increase are negatively affecting the operating expenses. And besides that, we are also investing to be in the forefront of the transformation to electrified and autonomous vehicles. This is reflected in higher activities and thereby increasing R&D and selling expenses. R&D was, however, only slightly higher year over year. And that is related to some positive one-timers that we had in the quarter of approximately 500 million on R&D. The net capitalization effect in the quarter was close to 200 million SEK, and we expect about 1.5 billion for the full year, 24 in positive earnings from capitalized R&D. And the effect with 500 million in the first half of the year and another billion in the second half of the year. The negative effect from the UAW strike in North America was about $1 billion, and the joint venture earnings were about $800 million lower year-over-year. This is mainly due to an impairment in our Chinese joint venture with the FCV. FX had a positive effect on earnings of some 1.1 billion, and we expect full year 24 to have some 500 million sick negative effect from the transaction exposure. It will be neutral for the first half and then negative in the second half of the year. And we don't give guidance for the full FX effect on earnings. We are only guiding for the transactional effect. Looking at the cash flow, So in terms of cash flow, and as you probably all know, we have a seasonality in the group with the highest cash flow throughout the year in the fourth quarter. And the fourth quarter 2023 was not an exception from this. We had strong earnings in combination with good inventory management delivered about $22.7 billion in cash flow for the quarter, and that is despite high investments in the quarter. On the back of an effective operational balance sheet and record earnings, the return on capital employed improved to 36.7% on a rolling 12-month basis. And net cash in industrial operations reached 83.4 billion SEK. And this is the result of a strong cash flow in the quarter. Moving into trucks. So overall, we had a good momentum in the truck segment in the quarter. And this was with an easing of the supply chain in Europe as well, as you saw on the deliveries that Martin showed previously. The FX increased adjusted net sales for group trucks of 12% was mainly related to high deliveries in Europe combined with price. The price realization of vehicles as well as service was the main explanation behind the improvement of the adjusted operating margin from 8.3 billion to 13.7 billion, giving an adjusted operating margin of 13.7 for trucks. On the negative side, we had the earlier mentioned joint venture performance and the negative effect from the strike in North America. FX impacted adjusted operating income positively by 800 million in the fourth quarter. Looking into construction equipment then. Total deliveries continued to decrease year over year, and this is mainly, as previously mentioned, related to China. FX adjusted sales decreased 4%, and that's a substantial decrease in machine deliveries were part of set by higher prices in general, and improved mix when it comes to brand product as well as geographical mix. Adjusted operating income increased with $200 million to $3.3 billion, supported by mixed and continuous strong price realisation for CE. On the negative side, we had lower volumes and higher R&D expenses year over year. Adjusted operating income margin reached 12.5% and no impact on earnings from currencies. So we had basically neutral effects year over year for CE. Looking at buses... FX adjusted net sales increased with 8%, mainly driven by strong deliveries on coaches in North America and strong price realisation. Adjusted operating income increased with $95 million to $323 million. This is mainly driven by price realisation on new vehicles and service, while higher material costs mainly on batteries had a negative effect on earnings. Adjusted operating income margin increased by 1 percentage point to 4.4%. Currencies had a positive impact of 56 million in the quarter. Moving to Penta and the fourth quarter. So FX adjusted net sales increased 2% to 5 billion SEK, and this was despite 8% lower volumes in the quarter. Adjusted operating income decreased to 365 million. This was due to high material and production costs, as well as a loss on the divestment of shares in a distributor in the quarter. All of this was partly compensated by price realisation. Adjusted operating margin came in low at 7.3%. FX impacted positively by 99 million in the quarter. And then last but not least, looking into financial services. High deliveries and good price realisation on the group products supported the portfolio growth in the quarter. The credit portfolio increased to 254 billion, with a rolling 12-month return on equity of 13.9%. Customer financials and payments continue to be good, reflected in low write-offs and credit provisions in the quarter. Adjusted operating income increased 1 billion, supported by the portfolio growth, and partly affected by spread compression due to fierce competition from banks and leasing companies. FX had a positive effect of 11 million on the adjusted operating income in the quarter. And with that, I leave for Martin to summarize them. Thank you, Mats. Thank you.