AB Volvo

Good morning and welcome to the Volvo Group first quarter press conference. Today we'll do as always, we'll listen to the presentations by Martin and Mats, and then we'll follow up with the Q&A session. So with that, I hand over to Martin.

Thank you, Johan. Thank you for that. And also from my side, welcome everyone to this... Q1 2025 presentation, and I would like to start with saying that it has been a rather eventful time here. That is not an, so to speak, exaggeration, but as we conclude the first quarter also, I would like to take the opportunity to thank everyone that has been involved, customers, business partners, and colleagues. It's more important than ever to work closely together, and that is a strong asset that we have, that we have very close relations. And overall, the underlying activities in many markets during the quarter have been, as a matter of fact, rather stable. But there is of course an elevated level of uncertainty around increased trade barriers and their effect on both local and global economies. For North America in particular, the increased uncertainty means that we are now taking down our forecast for the markets for the full year, both for group trucks and VC. But however, globally, the order intake for the quarter was positive in relation to quarter one last year for all business areas. And that goes also in the different truck business areas. Europe specifically did show a rather positive trend. And we are also proud that Volvo Trucks maintained market leadership in Europe with the market share for the first time actually exceeding 20%, 20.1%. And combined with Renault, the group reached over 30%. And across the group, we have continued to prioritize high quality in the business by focusing on our customers and service operation. I will come back to that. Volume flexibility in the industrial system. Tight cost control combined with, given the current situation, commercial discipline and price management. Specifically for volume flexibility, we are in a good balance for almost all markets and regions. The only exception is still, I should say, group trucks in North America, where we continue to have more costs related to specific situations. Firstly, the continuous ramp up of the all-new Volvo VNL, and that is also now adding with the all-new VNR, the regional model, where extra resources and costs still have been needed. This situation has gradually been improving during the course of the quarter. And secondly, the increased hesitation among customers in North America to place orders given uncertainty in general. We are therefore, as we speak, adjusting production levels for group trucks in North America to minimize the underabsorption in production going forward. But it's clear that we've had an underabsorption during the quarter. On the positive side in North America, the impact by low levels of cab supply that we have hampered MAC is now overcome after our takeover of the production plant during the fall. So that has been a great work done here. So in total, the specific events for group trucks in North America affected the global truck margin negatively yet for another quarter here. But I have to say also, more importantly, we are firm on building a strong American platform with the introduction of the new platforms. That is, of course, I mean, if I may put so, a little bit of short-term pain for long-term gain. And a good proof point was the launch of Max's new pioneer long-haul model that you did see here in the introduction of this press conference. So moving forward in these turbulent times for global trade, it is important to focus on activities that we as a company can effect. Here and now, we will continue to build on our strong regional value chains combined with global capabilities. We work actively to adapt flows, production capacity if needed, and commercial terms to mitigate the effect from tariffs, in addition to the normalized markets that we have seen, and the subsequent impact on demand. And in times of uncertainty, it's also essential to, from time to time, take a step back. It is motivating to know that transport, logistics, and infrastructure will remain exciting growth opportunities for many years to come. In that regard, we continue to maneuver from a position of strength. We have high customer satisfaction and strong relations. We have solid foundation with the right people, well invested industrial and commercial backbones, cutting edge technology and a strong financial position. So if we summarize the quarter, net sales declined to 122 billion SEK on the back of lower volumes. It was a year-over-year drop of 7% with or without currency. Our adjusted operating income came in on a level of 13.3 billion SEK, corresponding to a margin of 10.9%. Quarter one is normally a somewhat weak quarter in terms of cash flow, and in quarter one, 25, we generated 1.3 billion in free cash flow. The year-over-the-year change is mainly an effect of the lower operating income, but also slightly higher investment and mainly related to the assembly plant we are building in Mexico. At the end of the quarter, we had a net cash position of 77.9 billion. Return on capital employed, industrial operations was at 31.8%, and earnings per share at 4.86 krona. So all in all, we summarized another solid quarter and resilient quarter in terms of correcting markets. If we then move to the volume developments, total truck deliveries declined 12% in quarter one with heavy duty deliveries holding up relatively better at minus 7%. For construction equipment, deliveries decreased by 7% with Volvo coming down 12% and SDLG increasing by 30%. Maybe it's worthwhile noting also when it comes to the truck deliveries, I didn't have that here, but that it was also a rather big change in the mix here related also to the order intake during the last part of 24 here. So Volvo actually had a bigger decline in relation to then Renault and Mac actually increasing as you have seen here. When it comes to electrification, with the different uncertainties, obviously now also linked to the general economy, there is a hesitation of actually placing orders. I mean, it's a hesitation overall to place orders in some of the markets. And then, of course, to add moving into a new type of business model is, of course, not the right timing here. So the underlying demand has been slowing down and the switchover is still driven by early adopters that has started, so to speak, that journey. But still orders for fully electric vehicles increased with 138% and it was mainly driven by Renault trucks, light commercial vehicles and SDLG machines in China. And that was the same trend that we did see in Q4 24. Deliveries increased with 58% also supported mainly by the same two main reasons than SDLG in China and Renault light commercial vehicles in Europe. But in summary, and this is important, despite the slowdown here and now, we continue to push in this field, which is, for example, reflected in our high market shares for medium and heavy-duty trucks in Europe around 60%. But also, as we see, that the early segments out is continuing to grow, for example, city buses. Vehicle and machine sales, so if you take those segments on the back of lower volumes, vehicle and machine sales declined 9% adjusted for currency. Truck sales declined 10% on 12% lower volumes. Construction equipment sales of machines were down 10% driven by lower volumes in Europe and North America. And bus sales increased by 5% despite 5% lower volumes than same period last year. And one of the effects here is actually electrification, but we'll come back to that. And for Volvo Penta, sales were down by 5% despite volumes down by 70%. So that was also holding up well here. When it comes to services, the service business was slightly down compared with the prior year and amounted to 129 billion, 12-month rolling, that is, impacted by also the Arcus divestment last year. If we take that effect away, the underlying service sales did grow by 2% year over year, adjusted for currency, so services continue to show resilience. And our efforts then to increase service contract penetration and other services will continue to pay off here step by step. So all in all, I should say a solid result from services also showing that activity levels are continuing or rather good levels in the installed population here. Group news, we held a well-attended AGM, actually in beautiful spring weather, April 2nd in April. The meeting, then shareholders resolved that an ordinary dividend of 8 krona per share and an extra dividend of 10.5 krona per share should be paid to the shareholders for fiscal year 24. In total then we distributed 37.6 billion to our shareholders, the largest dividend so far from a Swedish company. But that said, and that is important, we continue to maintain a strong financial position moving forward. And we also have, obviously, as all of us now, had a high focus on mitigating the effects of different trade barriers and tariffs. A couple of words around that. Trucks, for example, Volvo Group, when it comes to North America, has all its assembly for the North American market in the United States. Also key truck components are assembled in the United States, but of course we will have certain flows coming in from, so to speak, non-compliant USMCA regions in the world, not at least from Europe, and that then will have a tariff effect as already have been then announced by the US administration. For construction equipment, there it's a little bit of different picture. Majority of volumes imported and mainly them from Sweden, South Korea and Brazil. And we are working now with the mitigations here. Having said that, I think it's important also to take a step back and see how we are operating. If I take trucks here as an example, we are operating with regional clusters where, so to speak, a main part of our activities are taking place. The main reason for this is of course that we have products that are tailor-made for our customers and thereby we want really to make sure that we have short lead times with the right type of specification. But that platform moving forward, that industrial footprint and platform moving forward will serve us well. Obviously in between here we have flows, as I said, about parts and components that we need now to work through and see how the different effects will play out as we move forward. So it will be adjustment of flows, adjustment of volumes in different parts of the world, We will work with the commercial effects obviously and pass through that as we have seen for example on the steel and aluminium terrorists where we are working with pass through measures. That is I think very important to have in mind as we move forward, giving us a good opportunity to continue to maneuver. When it comes to the truck side, Dan, we continue to drive innovation to strengthen our customer value propositions globally. And Quarter One, despite then, as we said, many moving parameters, was no exception to that rule. In the US, our iconic Mac brand and the day, for the day here, both Mats and myself, we brought actually the Bulldog with also a small sign saying 125. because Mac celebrated its 125th anniversary on April 8th in Brooklyn, New York, where the company actually was founded by the Mac brothers. The day was also celebrated with the launch of Mac's all-new Mac Pioneer, as you can see here, which is designed for long-haul trucking. And it sets a new standard in terms of driver comfort advanced aerodynamics and game-changing fuel efficiency. And this is really a game changer for Mack when it's coming to really regain their position in long haul. Also, Volvo's most fuel-efficient truck to date, the Volvo FH Aero, won the Green Truck Award. We do know that this truck with its aerodynamics and efficient powertrain is at the top, and this independent test carried out in Germany confirmed its leading savings in fuel and CO2. And continuing on with the changeover to the new Volvo platform in North America, we launched also the all-new Volvo VNR, complementing then the VNL, and this VNR is for Riddle Hall. And when it comes to market environment, let me begin my comments here to the slide with stating what is maybe obvious for everyone. At this point in time, uncertainty is rather elevated. So it comes with a significant uncertainty given the market conditions. So everything that is going on here, both in the short term, but this is what we see right now then. In Europe, to start with, our forecast for 2025 is unchanged at 290,000 units. But having said that, utilization of trucks is on good levels, and the market is still replacement driven with an increasing share of fleets. Just looking at the current underlying fundamentals, one could argue that there is upside to the forecast, but with everything that is going on, this is for the time being our best estimate. In North America, we take down the forecast from 300 to 275,000 units. That goes to them for US, Canada and Mexico combined. And obviously, there is uncertainty about the tariffs and trade barriers and also about EPA 2027. uh in this forecast means that we do not expect any pre-buy related them to epa 2027 for 2025. we had that previously that we thought maybe that should start in in the later part of 25. but of course the development here is still uncertain And in Brazil, we take down the forecast slightly from 90 to 85,000 trucks on the heavy-duty side. And agriculture and mining segments are still holding up, export-oriented, as you know, where the domestic economy is impacted by higher inflation and increased interest rates. India, somewhat correction upwards. We are correcting heavy and medium duty up to 380,000. That is plus 10,000 in relation to last forecast. And we maintain our forecast for China market of 710,000. Book-to-bill, we did see a good order activity with a positive book-to-bill in quarter one. Specifically for medium and heavy-duty trucks, book-to-bill in quarter one was 140% and for 12-month rolling, then 99%. Year-over-year, orders did grow 13% to over 55,000 trucks and with 90% to almost 48,000 units for heavy-duty segments. The European book-to-bill in Q1 was strong at 137%, with both Volvo and Renault growing. And the uncertainty then in North America is evident in the book-to-bill with a mixed picture between Volvo and Mack. Orders for Mack were increasing, while Volvo being hampered by the changeover to the new trucks, as well as weakened demand in the long and regional haul segments. But in total, orders were up 6% in North America in relation to last year. South America, Africa, Oceania, Asia also had strong developments of book-to-bill in the quarter. Truck market shares, I've been a little bit into it. Volvo Trucks recorded an all-time high market share of 20.1% in Europe. In heavy-duty and Renault, Trucks had its higher market share since the fourth quarter of 2012, actually with 10.5%. So in total, the group had 30.6% market share in Europe. In terms of battery-electric trucks, we still have more than half of the market with a combined share of 60%. And in North America, Mack Trucks has regained market share with an improved supply chain situation, as I alluded to, while Volvo Trucks has been hampered by the changeover to the new platform and also an unfavorable mix. All in all, a rather stable share of 14.1%, but the new products on both Volvo and Mack's side will provide us with opportunities and really good opportunities to grow market share as we move forward. In Brazil, Volvo remains the market leader with close to 24%. And in Australia, both Volvo trucks and Mack trucks were somewhat lower in quarter one with a combined share at almost 22%. Moving then over to VC and construction equipment, also on this side we continue to push innovation and to roll out important new products. At the construction trade show Bauma in Munich in April, Melker and team unveiled the first electric haulers in the A30 and A40 size classes. and Volvo CE also showcased a groundbreaking all-electric lineup of excavators, wheel loaders, articulated haulers and compact machines. Then of course it's important to add that the customer can get what the customer wants, so we have of course this lineup also for combustion execution and also for different type of fuels in that sector. And in the quarter, Volvo CEO also launched a new A50 that is actually fitting between the A40 and A60 size classes articulated hauler model in the very important North American market. Market environment also here uncertainty also apply of course for construction equipment as it is for trucks. In Europe if we start there we guide for flat development for 2025 in relation to 2024 and that is unchanged in relation to previous forecast. In North America, and on the back of increased uncertainty, we guide for a continued decline. And our guidance is now minus 10% as midpoint in relation to 24. And that is a slight change that we had minus 5% as midpoint in the previous forecast. And in South American Asia, we stick to a flat development for 2025. That is also unchanged. And in China, we reiterate a slight improving market, plus 5% as midpoint. Also unchanged, by the way, in relation to previous forecast. Book-to-bill situation, also here VCE showed growth with a book-to-bill at 111% in Q1 and 99% 12-month rolling. European book-to-bill continued to be good at 131%, so similar pattern as for trucks. And the North American book-to-bill improved to 114%, but as you can see there, a 12-month rolling still a bit low on 80%, but at least an improvement here. And South America had a positive book-to-bill at 125%, and same goes for Africa, Oceania, and Asia, but also positive in terms of book-to-bill. Volvo Buses then launched during this quarter the new Volvo 7800 Electric in Mexico. And that is the first electric bus model to be manufactured in the country. The new articulated and bi-articulated electric bus is built on Volvo Buses' global electromobility platform, BZR. We also received the first order for the new intercity bus Volvo 8900 Electric when Svealandstrafiken, that is one of the Swedish PTAs or public transport authorities, ordered a total of 106 electric buses to operate in Sweden, where of 60 Volvo 8900 Electric. So Volvo buses continue its top line growth on the back of strong position in electrification. And book-to-bill in the quarter was very strong at 158%. Overall demand for coaches continued to be good. And order intake year over year was up 123%. Penta then. Volvo Penta in the quarter started serial production of its IPS professional platform, the biggest IPS system so far. And it was also introduced to the North American yacht market. This is a great addition to the already very strong lineup of marine in the marine product portfolio. And book-to-bill continued to improve to 141% in 41 and to 109% 12 months rolling. And order intake year-over-year was up with 35%. Volvo Financial Services, the portfolio performance continued to be good, with customer delinquencies stabilizing at average business cycle levels. VFS continued to deliver good and stable earnings, and in quarter one, the new business volumes reached 24.9 billion. The 12-month rolling penetration also was good, reached 29% and up by two percentage points compared to last year. So by that, conclude the business report and leave to you Mats for the financials.

Thank you Martin. So looking into the financial standards starting off with the group net sales. Net sales decreased by 7% on a currency-adjusted basis compared to last year. Vehicle sales dropped by 8%, mainly due to lower volumes. Service sales increased by 2% adjusted for currency and Darcy's divestment. European volumes declined with sales coming down 12% adjusted for currency, and the decline is mainly due to lower volumes in trucks and construction equipment. In North America, sales experienced a slight decrease of 2% FX adjusted, mainly due to lower market activity for construction equipment. South America continued to have positive performance during the quarter. Net sales increased 3% FX adjusted compared to last year, and this was mainly driven by trucks and construction equipment sales. In Asia, the net sales increased by 1% adjusted for currency, mainly driven by our SDLG business in construction equipment. And the other regions experienced declining sales in both trucks and machines. Overall FX effect was negative, with about 700 million SEC, driven by the Brazilian currency depreciating 13% versus SEC, with a negative FX effect of about 1 billion SEC. The adjusted operating income for the group was 13.3 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 10.9%. In Q1, earnings were supported by positive development of our service business and lower operational expenses for R&D as well as S&A. While the lower trend in freight cost had a positive year-over-year impact, it did not compensate for the effects from reduced volumes, negative product and brand mix within construction equipment, and the negative financial impact from the truck model changeover and under-absorption in the U.S. manufacturing system. The net capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at 600 million, with a year-over-year effect of 200. Guidance on net capitalization for the full year 2025 is positive at approximately 3 billion, with a year-over-year effect of about 2 billion SEK. FX had a negative impact of 200 million SEC in the quarter, mainly driven by the strengthening of the SEC. And given the current trend of strengthening SEC, we expect the effect of transaction exposure to be negative at 4 billion for the full year 2025. And we don't provide any guidance on the full FX effect on earnings. First quarter is, from a seasonality point of view, a weak cash flow quarter due to the seasonal build-up of inventories. This quarter, we have ever generated a positive operating cash flow of 1.3 billion, despite continuing to make significant investments in the transformation. While the inventory went slightly up, the solid earnings were the main contributor to the positive operating cash flow. Return on capital employed trend declined to 31.8% on a rolling 12-month basis. The net financial position remained solid at 77.9 billion SEK, supported by the positive operating cash flow generation. And then looking into the track segment. The decreased FX adjusted net sales for group trucks of 8% was driven by lower volumes and slightly negative price effect on vehicles. The lower adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin were mainly driven by generally lower volumes and the impact from the model changeover and underabsorption in the US manufacturing system. Good performance was maintained through effective price realization on parts, reduced freight cost, and generally good cost control. FX was slightly negative with 58 million in the quarter. Looking at construction equipment done, FX adjusted net sales decreased by 8% due to the negative brand and product mix. Adjusted operating income decreased by 1.1 billion to 2.5 billion SEK. The negative mix from higher volumes in China and lower volumes in Europe and North America were partly mitigated by lower material cost and increased service business. The adjusted operating income margin reached 12% and FX effect was minor at 12 million. Looking at buses done. FX adjusted net sales increased by 7%, driven by product mix and service sales. Adjusted operating income increased to 360 million SEK, and this was actually the best first quarter ever for buses. The result was supported by price realization of both vehicles and parts, and continuous improvements on manufacturing costs, offsetting the impact from higher material costs. The adjusted operating income margin increased to 6.6% and the currency impact was slightly negative at 30 million SEK. Moving over to Pentadon. Driven by lower volumes, FX adjusted net sales decreased by 3% to 5 billion. Adjusted operating income was slightly lower at 950 million SEK, and this was mainly driven by lower volumes. The solid performance in the quarter was due to positive product and market mix, driven by heavy duty engines in the US market and price realization on both engines and parts. The adjusted operating margin reached 18.3%, and there was a small negative FX impact in the quarter at 37 million SEK. And then finally, financial services. Adjusted for currency, the credit portfolio increased to 264 billion SEK with a rolling 12-month return on equity at 12.7%. The currency effect on the credit portfolio was minus 22 billion compared to first quarter 24. Portfolio performance continued to be good, with customer delinquency stabilizing at average business cycle levels. In Q1, the adjusted operating income was stable at 1 billion, and the solid portfolio performance was partly offset by increased credit provisions and unfavorable currency movements, which had a negative impact of 48 million compared to first quarter 2024. So with that, I'm leaving it for Martin to summarize. Thank you, Mads.