11/8/2024

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Please stand by, your meeting is about to begin. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over, I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections in that forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to Allied Gold's press release issued yesterday announcing third quarter 2024 results, as well as the management's discussion and analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay later on today. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Allied Gold's website at alliedgold.com. I will now turn the call over to Peter Maroney, Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

Operator, thank you very much. Joining us This morning are Johan Stultz, Daniel Racine, Jason LeBlanc as speakers. We have other members of management here to answer questions. I will provide a preview, an update on corporate matters, and then I'll pass the call over to management. Let's dig right in, beginning with production. Production compares well to the comparable quarter, and for the nine months, Sadiola, Bonicro, and Agbao production were above the comparable period, and they're trending up. Kerali Sud, what we were referring to historically as the Diba area, provided nominal contribution to Sadiola in the quarter. There were no meaningful operational issues. It was entirely timing of the introduction of a new mining code in Mali and the timeframe for the production coming from Kerali Sud to contribute to the Sadiola production. Kerali Sud production is consistent with plan. It will contribute meaningfully in Q4 and into 2025. And it's doing what it's supposed to do, which is to bridge production while we engage in the expansion for phase one at Sadiola while that is completed. As you read in our public disclosure, phase one is now in progress. We expect to have it implemented by late 2025. And there will be an overlap with Kerala-Isud. So the production increases are expected next year and into 2026. Timing of sales plus corral de sud, the nominal contribution coming from that, they did contribute to costs. The costs were higher than we wanted them to be for the quarter. We deliver costs based on ounces sold rather than ounces produced. And so with that timing of sales and with a lessened production in the third quarter, as the new mining law was introduced and we were going through the permitting process, it did contribute to costs. But once again, In terms of what we're seeing on production more generally, we're seeing costs in line with what are our expectations. And with an increase in production in the fourth quarter, we expect that the unit costs, the cost per ounce will decline. We began mining at Kerali Sud. We did incur costs. We stopped with the introduction of the new mining code pending permitting. And the result of all of that contributed to the costs for the third quarter. That will not be true going forward. So going forward then, in the fourth quarter, we expect a production platform, as Johan will more fully speak to, of 98,000 ounces to 102,000 ounces. That will represent a 17% increase over Q3, and it rounds out the year. It will establish Sadiola plus our Cote d'Ivoire complex, the two mines in Cote d'Ivoire, at a sustainable rate, production platform of 375,000 to 400,000 ounces per year. A lot of effort has been made on improvements to mining, to processing, exploration, and in-country relationships and relations. And also in managing our financial position with cash flow, tax management, advancing financing plans. We continued with the advancement of the Cromoca project And as I mentioned a few moments ago, starting the Sadiola first phase expansion. They're on schedule. They're on budget. And with better outflows management, with commercial capital expenses this year now well below forecast, we expect that we will be delivering a year with less capital spent, but projects remaining on schedule. Upfront costs, including deposits, were less than we anticipated. and certain mobilization costs us less than we expected. So the good news is that the projects that are on schedule on the capital for this year will be less than what we had forecast at the beginning of the year. We completed an orderly succession plan to our chief operations officer. Johan is now fully in the seat, but he has been implementing mining improvements for the last several quarters from the beginning of the year. He will give his take on what those mining improvements have been and what that does to strengthen our production for the fourth quarter and for the years to follow. We've strengthened our board of directors with a West African mining executive with experience in countries in West Africa, but of course, most prominently in Mali, so that we can improve our in-country presence. And this coincides with updated, more conservative block models and mine plans. And all of this coincides with execution on our financing plans, that with improved production and cash flows from that production will fully fund our growth. And it allows us to pursue other projects and plans to improve and increase value per share. And moving to slide four, there are several in-country initiatives that were advanced in the third quarter. They include a long-term power purchase agreement in Ethiopia and awarding the construction of the power line. We have introduced backup power in Côte d'Ivoire so that we are not dependent on variabilities relating to the grid. Our protocol agreement in Mali secures its transition, secures the Sadioula transition to a world-class mine. And that's an important part to discuss. But that protocol agreement in Mali conforms with the new mining code, and while While we are advancing our expansion plans, we're continuing with production, and we're establishing essentially goodwill in the country. I want to make sure that this is clear. It should be obvious. Saudi oil has proven improbable reserves of 7.4 million ounces. It will have close to 400,000 ounces of production per year. Over several decades, and with upside that is not yet fully realized, that includes higher recoveries, mine life extension, and all at well below worldwide all-in sustaining costs. It will soon become a world-class mine. And our protocol agreement secures the transition of that mine into that world-class status. And then when it reaches that status, it will continue to secure its future. But it also affords us, as I said a few moments ago, goodwill to pursue other opportunities in the country with the state's support and encouragement. that includes in relation to nearby deposits in areas like Diba, like Kerali Sud, that can supplement or feed to Satiola. And we are advancing those opportunities with the cooperation from the various ministries in the country and the state-run mining company which owns some of those deposits. So with that as a preview, an update on corporate matters, Let me pass the call now to Johan for more insights into our mining and operational efforts, results, expectations, and opportunities.

speaker
Johan Stultz
Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Peter, and good morning to everyone. As Peter mentioned, we've undertaken several initiatives to de-risk and advance our production profile. The operational side, we focused on the mining, processing, and exploration, and then faced the improvements to support this strong fourth quarter and beyond. key advancements, including the ramping up of mining ore and waste movement into the higher grade areas that will ensure that we produce at lower cost alongside substantial gains in our processing plants. In Cote d'Ivoire, these efforts already delivered results. And we've seen in the processing plant upgrades have increased the milling rates with 15 and 39% respectively from ACBO and PONICRO from the first quarter to the third quarter. We anticipate these throughput rates will continue into the fourth quarter and substantially into the 2025 business year. If we move on to the operational performance on slide five, I've implemented the safety initiatives and embedded the safety culture that will drive and empower employees to think safety and work safe. I have also reviewed and improved the mine planning, our grade control models, as well as our grade control strategy. Over the last quarter, we've seen that the mine planning improved from sub 80% beyond 90% on spatial compliance, which will enable us to access higher grade ore and sustain the production profiles required through the fourth quarter. I've also appointed a competent local mine technical team that will monitor, enhance, and also ensure that we sustain the business profile through the fourth quarter and into 2025. We've reviewed the operational cost base and developed an improvement plan that will optimize future production costs in Cote d'Ivoire, and that'll move over to Mali in early Q1 2025. We've implemented the preparation plan for success production in 2025. That'll ensure that we de-risk the business, set ourselves up for early development great control hydrology and geotechnical preparation within the business profile of 2025 and beyond. If we go to the production profiles, looking ahead of the expected production continues to improve as we advance the stripping at pushback five in Borneo throughout 2024. This is expected to expose higher-grade material for the processing plant in 2025 and 2026, further supporting the long-term production goals at Bonnie Crow. At Aqbao, we produced 18,640 ounces of gold in the third quarter in 2024, and that's up from 17,320 ounces the same time last year. While the increase is modest, Compared to the previous year, it represents a more significant improvement from the second quarter as in-country grid power issues were mitigated. We've also improved quarter-on-quarter mine profiles to ensure that we access the higher-grade ores within ACWAO. During the third quarter, total tons mined continued to increase, enabling us to expose all planned ore for 2024 and demonstrate mine that mines full potential. I've managed to fast-track the higher-grade oxide ore from Agbali, and this will be fed into the Agpal plant and ensure higher throughputs as well as higher grades, increasing the improvements spoke about earlier in the note. If we look at the fleet performances, implementation of short-term interval controls This includes ready to reverse the early hour targets, and this will ensure that we are more efficient with our mining fleets. In terms of the plant processing and mine achievements, records through the third quarter driven successful fragmentation strategies and throughout the mine planning capabilities. This increase in process capacity has been further supported by ahead-of-schedule oxide feed from Chappelle. In addition, improvements were observed in the stripping ratios or mined and grade with expectations for continued enhancements in the upcoming quarters as we build, refine our operational plans. Looking forward into the final quarters of the year, the company estimates the fourth quarter production to be in the range of 98,000 to 202,000, making the highest quarter output of the year, supporting the company's previously disclosed production platform of 375,000 to 400,000 ounces from the current operations. This increase is largely attributed to the more substantial contribution from Kurali Suite, which has provided only a nominal contribution to the production here to date. This estimate fourth quarter production also considers a reduced throughput due to a clay content in Kerala soot ores, which are currently processed separately from the seriola or under the tolling agreement. The company actively seeking approval from the mining authorities to blend these ores from both deposits, optimizing the throughput and enhancing production efficiency. This production profile reflects current operations and excludes the anticipated step in increase expected from capital programs, notably Kermuk and also the Seriola plant expansion. I will now pass over to Jason Blanc to discuss the finance performance.

speaker
Jason LeBlanc
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Johan, and good morning, everyone. For the quarter, we generated revenue of $188.9 million and gross profit excluding depreciation and amortization of $66.3 million, which are increases of 7% and 56%, respectively, for last year. The net loss for the quarter was $108 million, or $0.43 per share. However, after adjusting for non-cash and non-recurring items, primarily related to the Mali agreement, adjusted net earnings for the quarter were $0.20 per share. Operating cash flows before income tax and working capital adjustments saw a significant increase in the third quarter to $87.2 million compared to an outflow of $36.8 million in the same period last year. This improvement was driven due to higher realized gold prices and proceeds from the streaming agreement with Triple Flag. We saw improvements in financial performance during Q3 and we expect a further improvement in financial results during Q4 on the back of our strongest operations quarter of the year and higher gold prices compared to the averages seen in Q3. At quarter end, cash and cash equivalents stood at $95 million after spending $54 million in Q3 on CapEx and expiration, with the majority of that related to the expansionary capital at Kermuk. Proforma Cash was $257 million following the equity offering that closed in October. Our financing strategy provides ample funding to support Allied's optimization and growth initiatives, including the development of the Krimov project, phase expansion and continuous improvements at the Sadiola mine, as well as portfolio-wide exploration and mine life extension efforts, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire. By having financial flexibility, Allied is positioned to unlock significant value and drive future growth and not be overly reliant on internally generated cash flows. Importantly, this financing strategy also boosts trading liquidity and expanded our investor base. With increased liquidity, we attract a broader range of investors, positioning allies for index inclusion and further market visibility. Our goal is to build a resilient, optionality-focused business. Our balance sheet and cash flows position us with a fully funded platform, backed by strong shareholder support, enabling us to create a solid foundation for sustainable growth and long-term value. This approach also allows us to capitalize on opportunities and capture more optionality sooner, which is the key to maximizing the value of our assets. Additionally, we are further strengthening our position with a stream and gold prepay package between $225 million and $250 million, which are expected to close during Q4. Together, these financing efforts ensure that Allied is well-equipped to achieve its growth initiatives and support ongoing expansion efforts. With that, I'll pass the call over to Danielle Racine.

speaker
Daniel Racine
Executive Vice President, Development

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Before talking about our growth project, as Johan has outlined, a lot of work has started on operation excellence and improvement to our mine planning. Our processing capabilities have been enhanced, and our entire team is working to support him in his effort and in his new role. I'm pleased to have him in place to drive the changes on the mining front. Turning to our growth initiative, PERMUC remain on track and on schedule, with the EPCM and physical progress proceeding as planned. Capital expenditure for the year are now expected to reach approximately 100 million, below the original estimate of 155 million. This is explained by timing of payment between the work done and invoicing, meaning that some work done in 2024 will be paid in 2025. Our construction team continues to optimize planning and scheduling. For example, contract were negotiated and awarded to local contractor, saving time on mobilization and guaranteeing quality of work. Some earthwork were redesigned to optimize the site layout. We are very happy of the advancement so far. The initial water dam was built and completed before the rainy season this year. That was a key milestone. Earthworks at the plant site and general facilities are started. Camp construction is well underway, and the kitchen served its first meal this week. Procurement of the major services and critical equipment is progressing well. In the fourth quarter, activities on site will increase significantly. Camp construction will continue. Construction of some auxiliary building will commence. Concrete work and civil activities will ramp up. Steel fabrication will commence. The momentum will continue into 2025 with the construction of the tailing storage facility, the main water dam, concrete, steel, and equipment installation at and around the mill complex. This will include mechanical and electrical discipline. Mining is also planned to start mid-2025. We'll keep you posted on the progress. Supporting this development, we recently secured a 20-year power purchase agreement with the Ethiopian Electric Power, which will provide sustainable energy for Kermouk at a highly competitive rate of $0.04 per kilowatt hour. This agreement positioned Kermouk amongst the lowest cost operation globally by ensuring access to one of the world's most affordable and sustainable power sources. The power line is currently under development and is expected to be completed and energized ahead of first production in mid-2026. Additionally, we have selected Mota Engel Group as our mining contractor after a competitive and comprehensive tender process. With nearly 80 years of operation experience, Mota Engel would bring substantial depth and expertise to Kermoke. Like I mentioned above, mining operations are set to commence mid-2025. At Sadiola Phase 1 expansion, pre-construction and engineering progress in Q3, with mobilization beginning late in the quarter and construction planned to start in early Q4 2024. Completion is expected in the second half of 2025, allowing Sadiola to process up to 60% higher-grade fresh rock while increasing throughput to 5.7 million tons per year. We are also advancing a full expansion optimization at Cediola, which includes ongoing metallurgical testing and pre-feasibility studies aimed at improving recoveries by over 10% through flotation and concentrate leaching. These initiatives are expected to enhance capital efficiency and support the achievement of similar ultimate production level, building upon the performance of phase one. Going to sustainability, all of our operational improvement and growth are grounded in our ongoing commitment to sustainability and the communities where we operate. We are actively advancing our sustainability management system across all sites, which include the communication of an updated health, safety, environment, and social responsibility policies and the preparation of a new sustainability framework. A full set of updated standards is on track for finalization in the fourth quarter of 2024. In terms of safety, a new culture is in development. All our sites are committed to continuous improvement in safety practices. We are proud to report that there were no significant environment incidents for both the three and ninth month ending September 30th, 2024. Allied Gold is focused on enhancing safety and environmental standards, demonstrating our commitment to aligning with evolving international best practices, standards, and external reporting frameworks. I will now pass the call back to Peter for closing remarks.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

Ladies and gentlemen, let me pick up on something that connects to Johan and to Daniel. Daniel mentioned that we have a mining beginning at Kermoke in the middle of 2025, and the approach that we take on development is stay ahead of what you will need. And so part of that then is to look at how we can bring a mine contractor into the fold sooner rather than later. We went through a detailed evaluation of mine contractors in the Kermoke process, and that led then to a repositioning of our mine contracting overall. Our mine contractor is prominent in Africa, well capitalized, maintains proper systems for supply chain and logistics, import and export, and understands mining. Our overhaul of our mining services contracts, so these are the contracts with our mine contractor, will better align with our mining requirements. And that's where Johan and Daniel have been instrumental in the discussions along with Gerardo, in the discussions with this new mine contractor. Motaengo is a public company with billions in revenues. They now become the largest mine contractor in Africa, and we will represent 25% plus of its business. And all of this coincides with updated, more conservative block models and mine plans. So with new services agreements that are aligned with KPIs, with a focus on mining, we're very confident that we can deliver the expectations for Q4. and into 2025 and in the years to follow. With that, let me open the call up to questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. We'll now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question, please press star 1 on your device's keypad. You may cancel the question at any time by pressing star 2. Please press star 1 at this time if you have a question. There will be a brief pause while participants register. Thank you for your patience. And the first question is from Anisha Soni from CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Anisha Soni
Analyst, CIBC World Markets

Hi. A couple of questions for you. With respect to Satiola, what grades are we looking at going into Q4? I think it was originally supposed to be north of 1.3, maybe in the 1.5 range. Is that still applicable or is that too high?

speaker
Johan Stultz
Chief Operating Officer

So, Anisha, The grades forecast for Sadiola Q4 sits sub 1.7 grams a ton. Through scrutinizing the mine plans, we try to access the higher grades into Q4 and then sustain ourselves through 2025.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

Okay. So we expected either 1.7 grams per ton with a combination of Sadiola ore and Kerali sudor.

speaker
Anisha Soni
Analyst, CIBC World Markets

Okay, and are you in the Kerala Sudor now?

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

Yes, we are.

speaker
Anisha Soni
Analyst, CIBC World Markets

Okay. And then I was just wondering about the Saviola. I noticed something last night when I was modeling. The recovery rates and production don't really seem to, like it just seems like there's a 5,000 ounce differential between the reported production versus what would be implied by the recovery tons and grade. Could you clarify that to me and get back to me. And the second question would be around the sales. The sales has been lagging. Do you know when there will be a catch-up on Sadiola on that?

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So let me wade in first, and then I'll pass it to Jason and to Johan. Yes, we expect sales to catch up this quarter. Part of the impact to sales is that Kerala Sudor that we have been producing. and started to produce, and the delay in the sale with that related again to permitting. As we said, we had started mining, we'd started processing, we'd started the delivery of production, but then we stopped as the new mining law was introduced, and we were looking at what we had to do for permitting, etc. As we now complete the process, we've completed the permitting process, we're completing the formation of the owner company. We've referred to a tolling agreement. So, Samos is a company that owns Sadiola. It is a separate company that owns Kerali Sud. And Samos tolls that ore through its plant. Officially, they're two different companies, and we're completing the formation of that second company. And at that point, then, we would expect gold to be sold and some of that catch-up to which I just referred. We're expecting that to occur over the course of the next couple of weeks. And so, yes, during this quarter, we would catch up on sales. Recovery rates, we're struggling with that a little bit because we're getting the recoveries that we expect to get from the ores that we're mining and we're processing. So perhaps we can, if it's okay with you, take offline that discussion of why you're coming up with a different number. But we're recovering what we expected to recover, and we're producing the number of ounces that we expected to produce.

speaker
Anisha Soni
Analyst, CIBC World Markets

Okay. Thanks for that, Peter. That's it for my questions.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Kerry McCreery from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kerry McCreery
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Hey, good morning, guys. Just a question on ASIC. I mean, obviously ASIC is in higher this year for a number of reasons, but how should we think about costs in 2025?

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So, again, let me begin. Jason, I'll pass it to you in a moment, but we're just going through a budgeting process at this point. We're expecting... We provide an outlook for costs at the beginning of this year for next year. And so we're expecting the costs will be incrementally, modestly, perhaps higher next year. What's the impact? The impact is entirely the new mining law in Mali and the impact of royalties on that. Because one of the royalties is an ad valorem royalty, so based on gold price, What the impact of costs is, is dependent on the gold price assumption that we use and what we think the gold price realistically, what we would forecast as a gold price for next year. So we're just going through that process at this point. I think you should expect that there will be an incremental increase in costs at Sadiola. The offset will be that we will be getting better production next year because we'll have a full year of Kerali sewage and the optimizations and plans for improvements that that Johan spoke of. And by the end of the year, we will have completed the first phase expansion. And that will allow us to process more of that fresh ore to increase production as well. So we expect that there's a balance then between the unit costs coming from higher production and some of the optimizations and improvements, but also the opposite impact that comes from higher royalties. And then in that, what is the impact of this ad valorem royalty? We can't ballpark it at this point, but I would say that whatever we would have guided for our costs for Sadiola next year, it would not be outside of the realm of possibilities that it would be a couple of hundred dollars higher per ounce. That's what we're currently looking at. And we're assuming in that a gold price that is somewhere between $2,000 and $2,500 per ounce.

speaker
Kerry McCreery
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Okay, thanks. And then maybe on Kermoke, obviously, activities ramping up. You've awarded some material contracts here. Just how are the costs there progressing versus your plan or budget?

speaker
Gerardo
Project Director, Kermouk Project

Thank you. Yeah, we're tracking well with our estimates. But Daniel mentioned that we're using a higher proportion of local contractor. With the PVGs, we've been able to manage the timing. of payments better, and I think, in general, lower mobilization costs. But, yeah, we're tracking well with the estimate, and we're keeping the overall cap for the project as the original target productivity as well.

speaker
Kerry McCreery
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

So we're happy with the performance. Okay, thanks. And maybe just one more, if I can. I know, ultimately, you're looking to put in grid power at Sadiola. Is that still going to be with Phase 2, or can you move that up now to reduce costs?

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

No, we're still expecting that with Phase 2. What we are looking at now, in addition to grid power, is solar, and that's something that we will be considering next year. And again, that's part of if we're expressing any reluctance in expressing what the costs are expected to be next year. Partly that is because we're also looking at alternatives for power so that we're not as reliant on diesel, we're not as reliant on generators. through next year and into 2026 before Phase 2 comes into play. So grid power is with Phase 2. Grid power is with a larger plant. But what we have as an option is alternatives, and the alternatives include solar. And we are in discussions with several companies that are in that business on how they would provide a turnkey to us, and then we would pay an amount for that. We do expect that solar power would be significantly lower in cost than... we would get from generators and from diesel. And we should make one more observation, which is that we're also evaluating at this point, again, part of the process of optimizations and improvements. We have a plant that is a high-quality plant. We will have upgraded that plant to take on more of the fresh ore. One of the things that we're looking at is how do we solve for a problem? The problem is 300,000 to 400,000 ounces per year. And we have said that phase two gets us there as a result of that larger plant, but that also requires $390, $400 million of capital expenditure. That would begin in 2026 and extend through to 2028. Can we bring production forward? We were already at 2029. We're now looking at 2028. Can we bring it forward sooner than 2028? And we're looking at an option where we can take the existing plant with the modifications we've made and further modifications and get to solving that problem of still producing at least 300,000 ounces of production per year. That would improve on capital costs. It would also likely improve on operating costs as well. So that's something that we will be unveiling in greater detail over the course of next year. But those are some of the factors that go into our thinking on the improvements and optimizations of Sadiola as it currently stands on costs and then also once we've completed the multi-phased expansion of that project.

speaker
Kerry McCreery
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Okay, great. Thanks, Peter and Gerardo.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Don DeMarco from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Thank you, operator, and good morning, Peter and team. Welcome, Johannes. Peter, could you add more colour on the production at Sadio on Q3? I see the grades E and Crowley-Sud contributions were limited. but were there other certain quarter-specific factors? And after coralli size depleted, can satiola maintain higher grain production? Yes.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So we said earlier in the year that when asked the question, I don't remember if it was on the first quarter call, it must have been that call, but after we gave our guidance, that we expected about 40% of the production this year coming from coralli. So clearly that has not occurred as a result of the reasons that we've given, the introduction of the new mining law, having to get a permit under that mining law and the process, the administrative process involved in all of that. So what to expect then going forward? We expect the Kerali contribution will occur in this quarter. It is occurring. We expect that it will occur next year and a part of 2026. But it's a bridge, as I said, in the formal part of the presentation. We don't see Kerali as more than a couple of years, two and a half years. We are engaging in a modest exploration program. Greg is here if you'd like to ask any questions on that to see if we can extend it. But we don't see Kerala-Sud as something that would extend indefinitely or certainly for longer than a period of two to three years. The future of Sariola starts with the first phase expansion. And that first phase expansion is in progress. We started this quarter. And that will continue through 2025 and begin contributing by the end of 2025, and then through 26, 27. And then we're going to see what happens from there. Do we build a bigger plant, or do we proceed in a different way, as I just described? So the bottom line to all of that is that Kerali is a bridge to that expansion. The future of Satyola is that roughly 7.4 million ounces in inventory as prudent and probable reserves. And most of that, 90% to 93% of that, is fresh ore in fresh ore. And so the future is that fresh ore. And so we have to get to that point. The first phase expansion gets us there. Kerala is a bridge and was seen always as a bridge. It wasn't seen as long-term, certainly short-term and intermediate term as we complete that first phase of the expansion.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. You're also looking at some financing, non-dilutive financing options for Kermak. And we've seen stream financing packages recently exclude exploration upside. or they provide options for accelerated repayments with the stream extinguished when the reserves are depleted. Are you considering these types of features when you're looking at the options for CREMAC?

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So, yes to all of the above, right? That's the reality here. We said at the beginning of this process that the reason why we are pursuing this part of this financing strategy is because it's become a competitive landscape. for streaming companies. And in my view, this is our corporate view, my personal view, is that they have begun to recognize that there is a shortage of quality product and quality managements. And so that makes it even more competitive. And they have to look at places like Africa. I think it's very telling that a very high-quality deal has been done in a country in which we operate. More than $600 million allocated to a stream And the terms are friendly terms. And so we should expect that that would continue because of that competitive landscape. And we're looking at all of the above. How do we decrease the area of interest so that we ensure that any exploration upside? Cormac has plenty of exploration upside. We've described that before. Again, Greg is here. If we want to go through a discussion of what's in the mining license and what's outside of the mining license and very much almost all of that exploration upside is outside of the mining license. And so that's something that clearly is important to us. And making sure that we have certain decreases in the percentage of deliveries on the stream, buyback options. These are some of the things that are important for us to pursue. So it's taken us to this point, but the reason for that is not because of challenges. The reason for that is because It is a competitive landscape, and we want to take advantage of that competition.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay, good to hear. And then finally, also at Kermuk, what are the critical path items to maintain the schedule for first pour in mid-2026?

speaker
Gerardo
Project Director, Kermouk Project

I don't... It's through the leaching circuit. So it's stables, steel, and then the mechanics are associated to the CIO circuit.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Sorry, I don't think I... fully heard that, Gerardo. Is that... Did you repeat that, please?

speaker
Gerardo
Project Director, Kermouk Project

Yeah, it's just... Yeah, no, it's the CIL circuit, the processing plant. I see. Okay. The CIL circuit, and that's what they see doing the earthworks on the plant site right now, and we're starting concrete very, very soon. We're... Okay. ...about to commission the plant, and then we go to mechanical, and... erection of the tanks, and we go from there. Believe it or not, it's not the mill, not the grinding area, it's CAL. Okay. And the other items are all managed, and we're managing against the critical path with a particular focus. Our project team obviously managed the whole project with EPCN contractors, but critical path items are taken in a separate sort of level of management with EPCN. the corporate team and the EPCM contractor to mitigate potential risk, and we're doing a good job on that.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. Okay, great. Well, thank you for that, and look forward to the strong Q4. Back to you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ingrid Rico from Stifel. Please go ahead.

speaker
Ingrid Rico
Analyst, Stifel

Yeah, good morning, Peter and team. My question is on the mining contract. And as you're making that transition to the operations, how do you anticipate to mitigate the potential changeover disruptions? And sorry if I missed it, but when do you expect to begin that transition? And also, if you could share the operating cost impact, if any, relative to the mining contract right now.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So on the first question, we've already been engaged in that process. When we announced that we've entered into these agreements relating to mine service agreements, we've already worked out the program and the process for the transition, and the transition has already been in progress. And they've done it before, and we've done it before. So we've certainly... So two things I think are important here, Ingrid. The first is that we're already in progress on the transition, and the second is that they've done it before and we have done it before. Same employees, same people involved, but a different owner. That's essentially the way to look at it, but a different owner with mine services agreements that better align to what our expectations are, where we should be mining, when we should be mining, blasting patterns, how we deal with haulage, making sure that we're more efficient on operations. So the result of all of that is that we don't see that as a challenge. But you're right to point it out. That's clearly something that we see as whenever there's a transition, there's always risk with opportunity. And so that's something that we've been paying attention to.

speaker
Ingrid Rico
Analyst, Stifel

Excellent. And if you can share just on the operating cost impact, if there's any, as we're looking into 2025.

speaker
Gerardo
Project Director, Kermouk Project

Ingrid, no. The rates are equivalent to... The contract, we go from there. There is a better mechanism for incentives and incentives for performance. So if it were to increase rate, it would be against a much stronger over-delivery in all metrics, including all deliveries to the plant. So no, and find a better contract to control that. And you didn't ask, but I guess imply the question is for CURMUC. The mining contract for CURMUC, the rates are aligned. to what we had in the estimates in the precivility study as well.

speaker
Ingrid Rico
Analyst, Stifel

Thank you for that. And if I can ask another question, just moving on to Sadiola and Kurali Sud. So right now you're processing separately. When can you expect to get approval to start blending and perhaps optimizing that? And is the reduced throughput from the clay content already built into the Q4 expectations?

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

Yes, as we said in the formal part, Ingrid, the production guidance, I guess, that we gave for the fourth quarter is assuming that we're running through the quarter on separate circuit for Kerala-Isud. We would expect that the production would increase to the higher end of the guidance range that we've given, possibly to well above that, depending on what the timing is for the approval for blending. We can't say at this point if that occurs next week or the week after, but clearly every week that passes or every day that passes would be a lost opportunity to get that greater throughput. And that throughput is about 50 tons per hour on 300 tons. Is that about right?

speaker
Gerardo
Project Director, Kermouk Project

Yeah.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So it does make a meaningful contribution. It is not material, but it does make a meaningful contribution. It does make a difference. So I guess the best way to answer your question is if we do not get approval for the quarter, we're at that 98,000 ounces. That's where we expect to be. If we get approval, we'll be at or above the 102,000 ounces. Great.

speaker
Ingrid Rico
Analyst, Stifel

Got it. Thank you for that. That's it for my question.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Justin Chan from SCP Resource Financial. Please go ahead.

speaker
Justin Chan
Analyst, SCP Resource Financial

Hi, Peter. Hi, Gerardo. Thanks for hosting the web conference or the conference call. Just one more on Satyola. I'm just curious, given the permits and movements on timing and maybe looking ahead to next year also, how much has the actual schedule of mine movements, where you're mining ore from, how much has that shifted this year and how much impact does that have on next year's plan versus where you thought you would be maybe at the start of this year?

speaker
Gerardo

Did you deal with that?

speaker
Johan Stultz
Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, so the blend for next year, if I can start there, is around about a 60-30 blend with a 10% that we get from the stockpiles. If we look at the current here, around about an 80-20 split from Kurali Soot and Sariola Ore. But we must remember that we're already in the development stage of Seco Cotto West and then as soon as Timbali comes online, that we have flexibility within the plan.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So, Justin, we said at the beginning of this year that there were other options, not as good grade as Kerali Suid, but there were other options within the mining license, and Sekakuta West was one of those. But we had to go through a further exploration program and a development program. Regrettably, that was not available to us in the third quarter, but it will be available to us until 2025. Gotcha.

speaker
Justin Chan
Analyst, SCP Resource Financial

So just on a like for like, because Crowley's suit took longer because, you know, a lot of reasons, most of them out of your control. So for next year, is it fair to say it's an option to have more of it come into the blend than let's say your outlook that we have from the end of last year?

speaker
Johan Stultz
Chief Operating Officer

I think we're in a much better position than in 2024. We have optionalities within the business. Depending on where the rain takes us or the wet season takes us, we have optionalities within the business and we can switch either from Kerala Institute or Sekakoto or Timbali, which is in the range of the very similar grades. So that's a very good outlook for 2025.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

And, Johan, that's important. That's something that Johan has been implementing. We've talked before corporately about optionality, and we talk about the importance of that in mining assets. You never know the rock, and you don't know what happens. And so what you want is to anticipate that if something does happen, you have an alternative. And that's part of what Johan has been putting in place, which is what are the alternatives in the just-in-case scenario. And so we'll have better options, and so more of that optionality as we mine and process and deliver production at Satiola next year.

speaker
Justin Chan
Analyst, SCP Resource Financial

Gotcha. And then just given the blend, I mean, if gold is at, you know, let's just say it stays its spot just for the sake of argument, I'm just curious, based on your ore blend, where would you advise modeling royalties at Satiola overall if they were you know, if you were to create a blended average number for next year.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

A good model, a good place to start, if we assume, I think you said $2,500 gold, is that what you said? Sure, let's use $2,500. Yeah, so let's use that, $2,500 plus. A good place would be about 10.5% in royalties. Okay, thanks, Peter.

speaker
Justin Chan
Analyst, SCP Resource Financial

That's very helpful. Maybe just one last one. So just reading between the lines on the contractor change, and Johan, you mentioned quite a few operational initiatives. I mean, were the mine models kind of a major issue for the operational delivery, or is it fleet availability? It sounds like a little bit of several factors. I'm just trying to get a sense of operationally where you're driving towards here. I mean, I know where you're going, but what are the specific areas that you thought needed immediate improvement?

speaker
Johan Stultz
Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, I think it is more to align the models with the mine plans and the execution thereof that we get closer to the reconciliation and we want to end up with our budgets and get more predictable in our forecasting. And that's where we started off by looking at our mine plans Looking at the grade control model, how far are we off from the reserve? And do we tighten the grade control spacing or do we open it up and get that flexibility within the mine plans? I think we've been very successful in Q3 getting that embedded, and that'll roll out onto the 2025 and beyond.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

So, Justin, again, all of the above, you're quite right. You hit the nail on the head. We can't say that it was just a mine contractor. The mine contractor does take instructions. The mine contractor follows a mine plan. So part of what Johan and Daniel and our team have been doing is tightening the mine plans in all the ways that Johan has just mentioned. You're aware of this. A life of mine plan is a certain number of ounces, and that doesn't mean that the ounces aren't there. But the question is, in terms of a shorter mine plan, are the ounces where you want them to be when you're there, when you're mining. And so that means you have to develop different approaches, as Johan mentioned, on how to make sure that we're doing that. So with that, then, we can better direct what our mine contractor does. But there is an issue with the mine contractor as well. We saw late last year, early this year, that the alignment of what a mining company needs, what the key performance measures are, and what the mine services agreements provided, We're not there. We also saw that we needed a mine contractor that was better capitalized That's not a day. We're not suggesting that there's an issue with the mine contractor that we have but there's always an opportunity for improvement and That's what we were looking to do here. So we believe now and certainly with a Kermuk process and that was a that was a Request for proposal. We went through detailed analysis of the proposal made by several mine contractors and The conclusion was that this was the mine contractor for us at Kermuk. And as we evaluated it further, we said it's a well-capitalized company. They understand supply chain. They understand customs, import, export. They understand logistics. A big part of their business is infrastructure builds, bridges, roads, and the like. And so that translates well into the mine contracting side. They want to build up their mine contracting business because it's recurring business. And we saw this as an excellent fit, an excellent opportunity. And as Eduardo said, we're paying the same rates but we have better pain and gain provisions, better key performance measures, and better alignment in terms of what they can deliver to what we're expecting.

speaker
Justin Chan
Analyst, SCP Resource Financial

Understood. Thanks, Peter. That was a really helpful caller. And thanks very much. I'll fair up the line. Thanks, Peter, Gerardo. Appreciate your time.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Once again, please press star 1 at this time if you have a question. And the next question is from Kerry McCurry from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kerry McCreery
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

Hi, just a follow-up for me. In terms of year-end reserves and resources, obviously you've added a lot of answers over the last few years. I'm just wondering, you know, it's late in the year. What are the best opportunities to add ounces this year? And then secondly, just given the changes in Mali with the fiscal regime, is that going to impact your Stadiola reserves or resources? Go ahead.

speaker
Greg
Vice President, Exploration

Okay, it's Greg here. With regards to exploration opportunities, I think we've already seen that happen in, say, Satiola with Seca Kota West, which is, you know, this time last year we weren't talking about that. This year we are as a feed alternative for early 2025, and I think that'll get bigger. Satiola keeps producing those for us. There's another prospect there, FE2.5, that's looking very promising as well. So Satiola, we continue to find... oxide gold deposits to supplement what's going to be predominantly fresh feed and if that makes that's better revenue for the group then we'll continue to do it. I don't think that we'll continue to find those replacement ounces for oxide for the next several years at Seti Goa. In Cote d'Ivoire, once again I think we've had another year where we've replaced all of production with new ounces and we'll continue to do so. And we will, and then we grow Uma to Buffalo as a longer-term alternative for some of the, for Bonacro and Agda, or supplement it. So I think both of those project sites where we have operating mines, we're well in front of being able to replace them with new discoveries. And in Kamook, well, it's Well, it has amazing potential. We're still working on the mining license, but outside of the mining license, on our exploration licenses, we think exists more of the same, same sort of scale, and turning that into a world-class project with exponential growth in the reserves. And we continue to see that. We're identifying more targets than we can drill at the moment. We're still drilling 200,000 metres of... All the rigs are drilling gold at any one time, and there's 15 of them. So, yeah, we're staying in trust.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

Greg, the other question was, do we see an impact on R&R at Sariola as a result of the royalties and possibly higher costs?

speaker
Greg
Vice President, Exploration

The impact on...

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

The total reserves.

speaker
Greg
Vice President, Exploration

Total reserves. No, I think because we've looked at other enhancements, Peter, that more than make up for those, and they're not baked in yet. Recovery enhancements. We're still using $1,500 gold reserve. So yeah, and the processing enhancements more than make up.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

And let me supplement that by saying that because of the low cost already, at Satiola once the second phase is completed. The impact of royalties is significantly less, and so our view on it, and again, we're running through that process as we complete mine plans for year-end budgeting. It doesn't look as if there's an impact on our reserves and resources for Satiola's fresh ore.

speaker
Kerry McCreery
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity

All right, great. Thanks, Peter, and great.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I'd like to turn the meeting back to Peter Maroney.

speaker
Peter Maroney
Chairman and CEO

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for making the time. It has been a pleasure being on this call with you. We look forward to engaging in early next year on our fourth quarter. It does look as if all the things that we've been saying are coming to fruition. Mining is never easy, but I'm confident in saying to you that we've got a management team that is competent and capable at dealing with the challenges, anticipating those challenges. Some of the questions are related to risks. I think Ingrid asked a question about risk, and so we're anticipating risks, managing those, and we're confident being able to deliver on the opportunities and manage the risks. So with that, thank you very much. We look forward to speaking with you further on our next conference call.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

Disclaimer

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