Allied Gold Corporation

Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call

11/8/2024

spk01: Please stand by, your meeting is about to begin. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over, I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections in that forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to Ally Gold's press release issued yesterday announcing third quarter 2024 results, as well as the management's discussion and analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay later on today. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Ally Gold's website at allygold.com. I will now turn the call over to Peter Maroney, chairman and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
spk10: Operator, thank you very much. Joining us this morning are Johan Stoltz, Daniel Racine, Jason LeBlanc as speakers. We have other members of management here to answer questions. I will provide a preview, an update on corporate matters, and then I'll pass the call over to management. Let's dig right in, beginning with production. Production compares well to the comparable quarter, and for the nine months, Sadiola, Bonnecro and Aigbaut production were above the comparable period and they're trending up. Coralli Sud, what we were referring to historically as the Diba area, provided nominal contribution to Sadiola in the quarter. There were no meaningful operational issues. It was entirely timing of the introduction of a new mining code in Mali and the timeframe for the production coming from Coralli Sud to contribute to the Sadiola production. Coralli Sud production is consistent with plan. It will contribute meaningfully in Q4 and into 2025, and it's doing what it's supposed to do, which is to bridge production while we engage in the expansion for phase one at Sadiola while that is completed. As you read in our public disclosure, phase one is now in progress. We expect to have it implemented by late 2025, and there will be an overlap with Coralli Sud. So the production increases are expected next year and into 2026. Timing of sales plus Coralli Sud, the nominal contribution coming from that, they did contribute to costs. The costs were higher than we wanted them to be for the quarter. We deliver costs based on ounces sold rather than ounces produced. And so with that timing of sales and with a lessened production in the third quarter, as the new mining law was introduced and we were going through the permitting process, it did contribute to costs. But once again, in terms of what we're seeing on production more generally, we're seeing costs in line with what are our expectations and with an increase in production in the fourth quarter, we expect that the unit costs, the cost per ounce will decline. We began mining at Coralli Sud. We did incur costs. We stopped with the introduction of the new mining code pending permitting, and the result of all of that contributed to the costs for the third quarter. That will not be true going forward. So going forward then, in the fourth quarter, we expect a production platform, as Johan will more fully speak to, of 98,000 ounces to 102,000 ounces. That will represent a 17% increase over Q3. And it runs out the year. It will establish Sadiola plus our Cote d'Ivoire complex, the two mines in Cote d'Ivoire, at a sustainable production platform of 375,000 to 400,000 ounces per year. A lot of effort has been made on improvements to mining, to processing, exploration, and in-country relationships and relations. And also in managing our financial position with cash flow, tax management, advancing financing plans. We continued with the advancement of the Cremoke project, and as I mentioned a few moments ago, starting the Sadiola first phase expansion. They are on schedule. They are on budget. And with better outflows management, with Cremoke capital expenses this year, now well below forecast, we expect that we will be delivering a year with less capital spent, but projects remaining on schedule. Upfront costs, including deposits, were less than we anticipated, and certain mobilization costs us less than we expected. So the good news is that the projects are on schedule, and the capital for this year will be less than what we had forecast at the beginning of the year. We completed an orderly succession plan to our Chief Operations Officer. Johan is now fully in the seat, but he has been implementing mining improvements for the last several quarters from the beginning of the year. He will give his take on what those mining improvements have been, and what that does to strengthen our production for the fourth quarter and for the years to follow. We strengthened our board of directors with a West African mining executive, with experience in countries in West Africa, but of course most prominently in Mali, so that we can improve our in-country presence. And this coincides with updated, more conservative block models and mine plans. And all of this coincides with execution on our financing plans that with improved production and cash flows from that production will fully fund our growth. And it allows us to pursue other projects and plans to improve and increase value per share. And moving to slide four, there are several in-country initiatives that were advanced in the third quarter. They include a long-term power purchase agreement in Ethiopia, and awarding the construction of the power line. We have introduced backup power in Côte d'Ivoire, so that we are not dependent on variabilities relating to the grid. Our protocol agreement in Mali secures its transition, secures the Sadiola transition to a world-class mine. And that's an important part to discuss. But that protocol agreement in Mali conforms with the new mining code. And while we are advancing our expansion plans, we're continuing with production, and we're establishing essentially goodwill in the country. I want to make sure that this is clear. It should be obvious. Sadiola has proven improbable reserves of 7.4 million ounces. It will have close to 400,000 ounces of production per year. Over several decades, and with upside that is not yet fully realized, that includes higher recoveries, mine life extension, and all at well below world-class, world-wide all in sustaining costs. It will soon become a world-class mine. And our protocol agreement secures the transition of that mine into that world-class status. And then when it reaches that status, it will continue to secure its future. But it also affords us, as I said a few moments ago, goodwill to pursue other opportunities in our mining and operational efforts, results, expectations, and opportunities.
spk06: Thank you, Peter, and good morning to everyone. As Peter mentioned, we've undertaken several initiatives to de-risk and advance our production profile. The operational side, we focused on the mining, processing, and exploration, and administrative improvements to support this strong fourth quarter and beyond. Key advancements, including the ramping up of mining, ore, and waste movement into the higher grade areas that will ensure that we produce at lower cost alongside substantial gains in our processing plants. In Cote d'Ivoire, these efforts already delivered results, and we've seen in the plant upgrades have increased the milling rates with 15 and 39 percent respectively from Aqbao and Bonikur, from the first quarter to the third quarter. We anticipate these throughput rates will continue into the fourth quarter and substantially into the 2025 business year. If we move on to the operational performance on slide five, I've implemented the safety initiatives and embedded the safety culture that will drive and empower employees to think safe and think safety and work safe. I have also reviewed and improved the mine planning, our grade control models, as well as our grade control strategy. Over the last quarter, we've seen that the mine planning improved from sub 80 percent beyond 90 percent on spatial compliance, which will enable us to access higher grade ore and sustain the production profiles required through the fourth quarter. I've also appointed a competent local mine technical team that will monitor, enhance, and also ensure that we sustain the business profile through the fourth quarter and into 2025. We've reviewed the operational cost base and developed improvement plan that optimizes future production costs in Cote d'Ivoire and that will move over to Mali in early Q1 2025. We've implemented the preparation plan for success production in 2025. That will ensure that we de-risk the business, set ourselves up for early development, grade control, hydrology, and geotechnical preparation within the business profile of 2025 and beyond. If we go to the production profiles, looking ahead of the expected production continues to improve as we advance the stripping at pushback five in Bonnecro, throughout 2024. This expected to expose higher grades material from the processing plant for the processing plant in 2025 and 2026, further supporting the long-term production goals at Bonnecro. At Agbou, we produced 18,640 ounces of gold in the third quarter in 2024 and that's up from 17,320 ounces the same time last year. While the increase is modest compared to the previous year, it represents a more significant improvement from the second quarter as in-country grid power issues were mitigated. We've also improved -on-quarter mine profiles to ensure that we access the higher-grade ores within Agbou. During the third quarter, total tons mined continue to increase, enable us to expose all planned ore for 2024 and demonstrate that mine's potential. I've managed to fast-track the higher-grade oxide ore from Agbou and this will be fed into the Agbou plant and ensure higher throughputs as well as higher grades, increasing the improvements for spoke about earlier in the note. If we look at the fleet performances, implementation of short-term interval controls, this includes ready to reverse the early hour targets and this will ensure that we are more efficient with our mining fleets. In terms of the plant processing and mine achievements, records through the third quarter driven successful fragmentation strategies and throughout the mine planning capabilities. This increase in process capacity has been further supported by a head of schedule oxide feed from Chapelle. In addition, improvements were observed in the stripping ratios ore mined and great with expectations for continued enhancements in the upcoming quarters as we build, refine our operational plans. Looking forward into the final quarters of the year, the company estimates the fourth quarter production to be in the range of 98,000 to 102,000, making the highest quarter output of the year, supporting the company's previously disclosed production platform of 375 to 400,000 ounces from the current operations. This increase is largely attributed to the more sustainable, substantial contribution from Coralli Soot, which has provided only a nominal contribution to the production here today. This estimate fourth quarter production also considers a reduced throughput due to a clay content in Coralli Soot ores, which are currently processed separately from the Cereola ore under the tolling agreement. The company actively seeking approval from the mining authorities to blend these ores from both deposits, optimizing the throughput and enhancing production efficiency. This production profile reflects current operations and excludes the anticipated step in increase expected from capital programs, notably Kermuk and also the Cereola plant expansion. I will now pass over to Jason Blank to discuss the finance
spk03: Thank you, Johan, and good morning, everyone. For the quarter, we generated revenue of $188.9 million and gross profit, excluding depreciation and amortization of $66.3 million, which are increases of 7% and 56% respectively from last year. The net loss for the quarter was $108 million, or $0.43 per share. However, after adjusting for non-cash, non-recurring items primarily related to the Mali agreement, adjusted net earnings for the quarter were $0.20 per share. Operating cash flows before income tax and working capital adjustments saw a significant increase in the third quarter to $87.2 million compared to an outflow of $36.8 million in the same period last year. This improvement was driven due to higher realized gold prices and proceeds from the streaming agreement with Triple Flag. We saw improvements in financial performance during Q3 and we expect a further improvement in financial results during Q4 on the back of our strongest operations quarter of the year and higher gold prices compared to the averages seen in Q3. At quarter end, cash and cash equivalents stood at $95 million after spending $54 million in Q3 on capex and expiration, with the majority of that related to the expansionary capital at Kermook. Performer cash was $257 million following the equity offering that closed in October. Our financing strategy provides ample funding to support allied optimization and growth initiatives, including the development of the Kermook project, phase expansion, and continuous improvements at the Sadio La Mine, as well as portfolio-wide expiration and mine life extension efforts, particularly in Cote d'Ivoire. By having financial flexibility, allied is positioned to unlock significant value and drive future growth and not be overly reliant on internally generated cash flows. Importantly, this financing strategy also boosts trading liquidity and expanded our investor base. With increased liquidity, we attract a broader range of investors, positioning allied for index inclusion and further market visibility. Our goal is to build a resilient, optionality-focused business. Our balance sheet and cash flows position us with a fully funded platform backed by strong shareholder support, enabling us to create a solid foundation for sustainable growth and long-term value. This approach also allows us to capitalize on opportunities and capture more optionality sooner, which is the key to maximizing the value of our assets. Additionally, we are further strengthening our position with a stream and prepay package between $225 million and $250 million, which are expected to close during Q4. Together, these financing efforts ensure that allied is well equipped to achieve its growth initiatives and support ongoing expansion efforts. With that, I'll pass the call over to Daniel Racine.
spk07: Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Before talking about our growth project, as Jovan has outlined, a lot of work has started on operation excellence and improvement to our mine planning. Our processing capabilities have been enhanced and our entire team is working to support him in his effort and in his new role. I'm pleased to have him in place to drive the changes on the mining front. Turning to our growth initiative, Permoc remain on track and on schedule. With the APCM and physical progress proceeding as planned, capital expenditure for the year are now expected to reach approximately $100 million, below the original estimate of $155 million. This is explained by timing with payment between the work done and invoicing, meaning that some work done in 2024 will be paid in 2025. Our construction team continues to optimize planning and scheduling. For example, contracts were negotiated and awarded to local contractors, saving time on visitation and guaranteeing quality of work. Some earthworks were redesigned to optimize the site layout. We are very happy with the advancements so far. The initial water dam was built and completed before the rainy season this year. That was a key milestone. Earthworks at the construction is well underway and the kitchen service first meal this week. Procurement of the major services and critical equipment is progressing well. In the fourth quarter, activities on site will increase significantly. Camp construction will continue. Construction of some auxiliary building will commence. Concrete work and civil activities will ramp up. Steel fabrication will continue. The momentum will continue into 2025 with the construction of the tailing storage facility, the main water dam, concrete, steel and equipment installation at and around the mill complex. This will include mechanical and electrical discipline. Mining is also planned to start mid-2025. We'll keep you posted on the progress. Supporting this development, we recently secure a 20-year power purchase agreement with the Ethiopian Electric Power, which will provide sustainable energy for Kermuk at a highly competitive rate of 4 cents per kilowatt hour. This agreement positions Kermuk amongst the lowest cost operations globally by ensuring access to one of the world's most affordable and sustainable power sources. The power line is currently under development and is expected to be completed and energized ahead of first production in mid-2026. Additionally, we have selected Mota Engel Group as our mining contractor after a competitive and comprehensive tender process. With nearly 80 years of operation experience, Mota Engel would bring substantial depth and expertise to Kermuk. Like I mentioned above, mining operations are set to commence mid-2025. At Sadiola Phase 1 expansion, pre-construction and engineering progress in Q3, with mobilization beginning late in the quarter and construction planned to start in early Q4 2024. Completion is expected in the second half of 2025, allowing Sadiola to process up to 60 percent higher grade while increasing throughput to 5.7 million tons per year. We are also advancing a full expansion optimization at Sadiola, which includes ongoing metallurgical testing and pre-feasibility studies aimed at improving recoveries by over 10 percent through flotation and concentrated leaching. These initiatives are expected to enhance capital efficiency and support the achievement of similar ultimate production level, building upon the performance of Phase 1. Going to sustainability, all our operational improvement and growth are grounded in our ongoing commitment to sustainability and the communities we operate in. We are actively advancing our sustainability management system across all sites, which include communication of an updated health, safety, environment and social responsibility policies and the preparation of a new sustainability framework. A full set of updated standards is on track for finalization in the fourth quarter of 2024. In terms of safety, a new culture is in development. All our sites are committed to continuous improvement in safety practices. We are proud to report that there were no significant environment incidents for both the three and nine-month ending September 30th, 2024. Our goal is focused on enhancing safety and environmental standards, demonstrating our commitment to aligning with evolving international best practices, standards and external reporting frameworks. I will now pass the call back to Peter for closing remarks.
spk10: So ladies and gentlemen, let me pick up on something that connects to Johan and to Daniel. Daniel mentioned that we have a mining beginning at Cremorca in the middle of 2025 and the approach that we take on development is stay ahead of what you will need. And so part of that then is to look at how we can bring a mine contractor into the fold sooner rather than later. We went through a detailed evaluation of mine contractors in the Cremorca process and that led then to a repositioning of our mine contracting overall. Our mine contractor is prominent in Africa, well capitalized, maintains proper systems for supply chain and logistics, import and export, and understands mining. Our overhaul of our mining services contracts, so these are the contracts with our mine contractor, will better align with our mining requirements. And that's where Johan and Daniel have been instrumental in the discussions along with Gerardo in the discussions with his new mine contractor. Motta Engle is a public company with billions in revenues. They now become the largest mine contractor in Africa and we will represent 25% plus of its business. And all of this coincides with updated more conservative block models and so with new services agreements that are aligned with KPIs with a focus on mining, we're very confident that we can deliver the expectations for Q4 and into 2025 and in the years to follow. With that, let me open the call up to questions.
spk01: Thank you. We will not take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question, please press star one on your device's keypad. You may cancel the question at any time by pressing star two. Please press star one at this time. If you have a question, there will be a brief pause. We'll pause the suspense register. Thank you for your patience. And the first question is from Anisa Soni from CIBC World Markets. Please go ahead.
spk08: Hi, a couple of questions for you. With respect to Sadiola, what grades are we at going into Q4? I think it was originally supposed to be north of 1.3 maybe in the 1.5 range. Is that still applicable or is that too high?
spk06: The grades forecast for Sadiola Q4
spk04: Yeah.
spk06: sits at 1.7 grams a ton. We're scrutinizing the mine plans. We've tried to access the higher grades into Q4 and then sustain ourselves through 2025.
spk08: Okay.
spk10: So we expected either 1.7 grams per ton with a combination of Sadiola ore and Kerala Sudor.
spk08: Okay. And are you in the Kerala Sudor now?
spk10: Yes, we are.
spk08: Okay. And then I was just wondering about the Sadiola. I noticed something last night when I was modeling the recovery rates in production don't really seem to, like it just seems like there's a 5,000 ounce differential between the reported production versus what would be implied by the recovery tons and grade. Could you clarify that to me and get back to me? And the second question would be around the sales. The sales has been lagging. Do you know when there will be a catch up on Sadiola on that?
spk10: So let me wait in first and then I'll pass it to Jason and to Johan. Yes, we expect sales to catch up this quarter. A part of the impact to sales is that Kerala Sudor that we had been producing and started to produce and the delay in the sale with that related again to permitting. As we said, we had started mining, we'd started processing, we'd started the delivery of production, but then we stopped as the new mining law was introduced and we were looking at what we had to do for permitting, et cetera. As we now complete the process, we've completed the permitting process, we're completing the formation of the owner company. We've referred to a tolling agreement. So Samos is a company that owns Sadiola. It is a separate company that owns Kerala Sudor and Samos tolls that ore through its plant. Officially, they're two different companies and we're completing the formation of that second company and at that time, we're expecting that to occur over the course of the next couple of weeks. So yes, during this quarter, we would catch up on sales. Recovery rates, we're struggling with that a little bit because we're getting the recoveries that we expect to get from the ores that we're mining and we're processing. So perhaps we can, if it's okay with you, take offline that discussion of why you're coming up with a different number, but we're recovering what we expected to recover we're producing the number of ounces that we expected to produce.
spk08: Okay, thanks for that. That's it for my question.
spk01: Thank you. The next question is from Carey McCreary from Kanakor Januti. Please go ahead.
spk12: Hey, good morning guys. Just a question on ASIC. I mean, obviously ASIC is in higher this year for a number of reasons, but how should we think about costs in 2025?
spk10: So again, let me begin, Jason, I'll pass it to you in a moment, but we're just going through a budgeting process at this point. We're expecting, we out-provided a note look for costs at the beginning of this year for next year. And so we're expecting the costs will be incrementally, modestly, perhaps higher than higher next year. What's the impact? The impact is entirely the new mining law in Mali and the impact of royalties on that. Because one of the royalties is an -the-lorem royalty, so based on gold price, what the impact of cost is, is dependent on the gold price assumption that we use and what we think the gold price realistically, what we would forecast as a gold price for next year. So we're just going through that process at this point. I think you said, Yola, the offset will be that we will be getting better production next year because we'll have a full year of Karali Sud and the optimizations and plans for improvements that Johan spoke up. And by the end of the year, we will have completed the first phase expansion and that will allow us to process more of that fresh ore to increase production as well. So we expect that there's a balance then between the unit costs coming from higher production and some of the optimizations and improvements, but also the opposite impact that comes from higher royalties. And then in that, what is the impact of the -the-lorem royalty? We can't ballpark it at this point, but I would say that whatever we would have guided for our costs for Sad-Yola next year, it would not be outside of the realm of possibilities that it would be a couple of hundred dollars higher per ounce. That's what we're currently looking at. And we're assuming in that a gold price that is somewhere between 2000 and 2500 dollars per ounce.
spk12: Okay, thanks. And then maybe I could come up, obviously activities ramping up, you've awarded some material contracts here. Just how are the costs there progressing versus your plan or budget?
spk09: Okay, we're tracking well with our estimates. As Daniel mentioned, as we're using a higher proportion of local contractor, we've been able to manage the timing of payments better and I think in general lower mobilization costs. But yeah, we're tracking well with the estimates and keeping the overall capital for the project and the original target productivity as well. So we're
spk12: happy
spk09: with
spk12: the performance. Okay, thanks. And maybe just one more if I can. I know ultimately you're looking to put in grid power at Sad-Yola. Just is that still going to be with phase two or can you move that up now to reduce costs?
spk10: No, we're still expecting that with phase two. What we are looking at now, in addition to grid power, is solar and that's something that we will be considering next year. And again, that's part of if we're expressing any reluctance in expressing what the costs are expected to be next year. Partly that is because we're also looking at alternatives for power so that we're not as reliant on diesel, we're not as reliant on generators through next year and into 2026 before phase two comes into play. So grid power is with phase two. Grid power was with a larger plant. But what we have as an option is alternatives and the alternatives include solar and we are in discussions with several companies that are in that business on how they would provide a turnkey to us and then we would pay an amount for that. We do expect that solar power would be significantly lower in cost than we would get from generators and from diesel. And we should make one more observation, which is that we're also evaluating at this point, again, part of the process of optimizations and improvements. We have a plant that is a high quality plant. We will have upgraded that plant to take on more of the fresh ore. One of the things that we're looking at is how do we solve for a problem? The problem is 300 to 400,000 ounces per year and we have said phase two gets us there as a result of that larger plant but that also requires 290, 400 million dollars of capital expenditure. That would begin in 2026 and extend through to 2028. Can we bring production forward? We were already at 2029. We're now looking at 2028. Can we bring it forward to 20, sooner than 2028? And we're looking at an option where we can take the plant with the modifications we've made and further modifications and get to solving that problem of still producing at least 300,000 ounces of production per year. That would improve on capital costs. It would also likely improve on operating costs as well. So that's something that we will be unveiling in greater detail over the course of next year. But those are some of the factors that go into our thinking on the improvements and optimizations of Sadiola as it currently stands on costs and then also once we've completed the multi-phased expansion of that project.
spk12: Okay great. Thanks Peter and Harada.
spk01: Thank you. The next question is from Don DiMarco from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
spk04: Thank you operator and good morning Peter and team. Welcome Johan. Peter could you add more color on the production at Sadiola Q3? I see the great Crowley sud contributions are limited but were there other certain quarter specific factors and after Crowley side is depleted can Sadiola maintain higher grade in production?
spk10: Yes so we said earlier in the year that when asked the question I don't remember it was on the first quarter call it must have been that call but after we gave our guidance that we expected about 40% of the production this year coming from Crowley sud clearly that has not occurred as a result of the reasons that we've given the introduction of the new mining law having to get a permit under that mining law and the process the administrative process involved in all of that. So what to expect then going forward we expect the Crowley contribution will occur in this quarter it is occurring we expect that it will occur next year and a part of 2026 but it's a bridge as I said in the formal part of the presentation. We don't see Crowley as more than a couple of years two and a half years. We are engaging in a modest exploration program. Greg is here if you'd like to ask any questions on that to see if we can extend it but we don't see Crowley sud as something that would extend it sort of indefinitely or certainly for longer than a period of two to three years. The future of Sadiola starts with first phase expansion and that first phase expansion is in progress. We're starting this we started this quarter and that will continue through 2025 and begin contributing by the end of 2025 and then through 26-27 and then we're going to see what happens from there. Do we build a bigger plant or do we proceed in a different way as I just described. So the bottom line to all of that is that Crowley is a bridge to that expansion. The future of Sadiola is that roughly 7.4 million ounces in inventory has proved improbable reserves and most of that 90 to 93 percent of that is fresh ore in fresh ore and so the future is that fresh ore and so we have to get to that point. The first phase expansion gets us there. Crowley is a bridge and was seen always as a bridge. It wasn't seen as long term certainly short term and intermediate term as we complete that first phase of the expansion.
spk04: Okay that's helpful thank you. You're also looking at some financing non-dilutive financing options for Kermak and we've seen stream financing packages recently exclude expiration upside or they provide options for accelerated repayments with the stream extinguished when the reserves are depleted. Are you considering these types of features when you're looking at the options for Kermak?
spk10: So yes to all of the above right. That's the reality here. We said at the beginning at the beginning of this process that the reason why we're pursuing these this part of this financing strategy is because it's become a competitive landscape for streaming companies and in my view this is our corporate view my personal view is that they have begun to recognize that there is a shortage of quality product and quality management. And so that makes it even more competitive and they have to look at places like Africa. I think it's very telling that a very high quality deal has been done in a country in which we operate more than 600 million dollars allocated to a stream and the terms are friendly terms and so we should expect that that would continue because of that competitive landscape and we're looking at all of the above. How do we decrease the area of interest so that we ensure that any exploration upside Kermak has plenty of exploration upside. We've described that before. Again Greg is here if we want to go through a discussion of what's in the mining license and what's outside of the mining license and very much almost all of that exploration upside is outside of the mining license and so that's something that clearly is important to us and making sure we have certain decreases in the percentage of deliveries on the stream buyback options. These are some of the things that are important for us to pursue. So it's taken us to this point but the reason for that is not because of challenges the reason for that is because it is a competitive landscape and we want to take advantage of that competition.
spk04: Okay good to hear and then finally also at Kermak what are the critical path items to maintain the schedule for first pour in mid 2026?
spk09: I've done it's through the leaching circuit so it's shables, steel and then the mechanic associated to the CIL circuit.
spk04: Sorry I don't think I fully heard that Gerardo. Is that, did you repeat that yeah
spk09: it's just yeah no it's the CIL circuit the processing plant. I agree. The CIL circuit and that's what they do in the earthworks on the plant site right now and we're starting concrete very very soon we're about to commission the plant and then we go to mechanical and erection of the tanks and we go from there. Believe it or not it's not the mill, not the the critical path items are all managed and we are we're managing against the critical path with a particular focus or project team obviously manage the whole project with EPCM contractor but critical critical path items are taking in a separate sort of level of management with the corporate team and the EPCM contractor to mitigate potential risk and we're doing a good job on that.
spk04: Okay okay great well thank you for that and look forward to the strong Q4. Thank you.
spk01: Thank you. The next question is from Engrid Rico from Stiefel. Please go ahead.
spk05: Yeah good morning Peter and team. My question is on the mining contract and as you're making that transition to the operations how do you anticipate to mitigate the potential change over disruptions and sorry if I missed it but when do you expect to begin that transition and and also you could share the operating cost impact if anything if any relative to the mining contract right now.
spk10: So on the first question we've already been engaged in that process when we we announced that that we've entered into these agreements relating to mine service agreements we've already worked out the program and the process for the transition and the transition has already been in progress and they've done it before and we've done it before so we we've certainly so two things I think are important here Engrid the first is that we're already in progress on the transition and the second is that they've done it before and we have done it before. Same employees same people involved but a different owner that's essentially the way to look at it but a different owner with mine services agreements that better align to what our expectations are where we should be mining when we should be mining blasting patterns how we deal with haulage making sure that we're more efficient on operations so the result of all of that is that we don't see that as a as a challenge but you're right to point it out that's clearly something that we see as whenever there's a transition there's always risk with opportunity and so that's something that we've been paying attention to.
spk05: Excellent and if you can share just on the operating cost impact is if there's any as we're looking into 2025?
spk09: Hi Engrid no just the reason that the rates are equivalent to the contract we go from there there is a better mechanism for incentives and penalties for performance so if we were to increase rate it would be against a much stronger over delivery in all metrics including all deliveries to the plant so no and find a better contract to control that and easy enough but I guess imply the question is for Cormac the mining contract for Cormac the rates are aligned to what we had in the estimates and the feasibility studies.
spk05: Thank you for that and if I can ask another question just moving on to Stadiola and Kareli Sud. So right now you're processing separately when can you expect to get approval to start blending and perhaps optimizing that and is the reduced throughput from the clay content already built into the Q4 expectations?
spk10: Yes so as we said in the formal part Engrid the production guidance I guess that we gave for the fourth quarter is assuming that we're running through the quarter on separate circuit for Kareli Sud we would expect that the production would increase to the higher end of the guidance range that we've given possibly to well above that depending on what the timing is for the approval for blending. We can't say at this point if that occurs next week or the week after but clearly every week that passes or every day that passes would be a lost opportunity to get that greater throughput and that throughput going is about 50 tons per hour on 300 tons is that about right? Yeah yeah and so it it does make a meaningful contribution it is not material but it does make a meaningful contribution it does make a difference. So I guess the best way to answer your question is if we do not get approval for the quarter we're at that 98,000 ounces that's where we expect to be if we get approval we'll be at or above the 102,000 ounces.
spk05: Great got it thank you for that and this is
spk01: for my questions. Thank you the next question is from Justin Chan from SCP Resource Financial please go ahead.
spk02: Hi Pierre, hi Gerarda thanks for hosting the web conference or the conference call. Just one more on Sadiola I'm just curious given the permits and movements on timing and maybe looking ahead to next year also how much has the actual schedule of mine movement where you're mining ore from how much has that shifted this year and how much impact does that have on next year's plan versus where you thought you would be maybe at the start of this year?
spk06: Yeah so the the blend for next year if I can start there is round about a 60-30 blend with a 10% we that we get from the stockpiles. If we look at the current here round about a 80-20 split from Karali Sud and Sadiola ore but we must remember that we already in the development stage of Secaucooto West and then as soon as the barley comes online that we we have flexibility within the plant. So Justin we said
spk10: at the beginning of this year yeah we said at the beginning of this year that there were other options not as good grade as Karali Sud but there were other options within the mining license and Secaucooto West was one of those but we had to go through a further exploration program and a development program so regrettably that was not available to us in the third quarter but it will be available to us into 2025. Gotcha so
spk02: just on a like for like because Karali Sud took longer because you know a lot of reason most of them out of your control but so for next year is it fair to say it's an option to have more of it come into the blend than let's see your outlook that we have from from the end of last year?
spk06: I think we're in a much better position than in 2024. We have optionalities within the business depending on whether the rain takes us or the wet season takes us we have optionalities within the business and we can switch either from Karali Sud or Secaucooto or Bali which is in a range of the very similar trades so that's a very good outlook for 2025.
spk10: And okay, Johan that's important that's something that Johan has been implementing. We've talked before corporately about optionality and we talk about the importance of that in mining assets. You never know the rock and you don't know what happens and so what you want is and anticipate that if something does happen you have an alternative and that's part of what Johan has been putting in place which is what are the alternatives in the just in case and so we'll have better options and so more of that optionality as we mine and process and deliver production at Cetiola next year.
spk02: Gotcha and then just given the blend I mean if gold is at you know let's just say it stays at a lot for just for the sake of argument I'm just curious what based on your ore blend where would you advise modeling royalties at Cetiola overall if they were you know if you were to create a blended average number for next year?
spk10: A good model a good place to start if we assume I think you said $2,500 gold is that what you said? Sure let's let's use 25. Yeah so let's use that 1.500 plus a good place would be about .5% in royalties.
spk02: Okay
spk10: thanks Peter that's
spk02: very helpful. Maybe just one last one so just reading between the lines on the contractor change and Johan you mentioned quite a few operational initiatives I mean was were the were the mine models kind of a major issue for the operational delivery or is it fleet availability or it sounds like a little bit of several factors I'm just trying to get a sense of operationally you know where you're driving towards here I mean I know where you're going so the mines like what are the specific areas that you thought needed immediate improvement?
spk06: Yeah I think it is more to align the the models with the mine plans and the execution they off that we get closer to the reconciliation and we want to end up with our budgets and get more predictable in our forecasting and that's where we started off by looking at our mine plans looking at the grade control model does it how far are we off from the reserve and do we tighten the grade control spacing or do we open it up and you know get that flexibility within the mine plans? I think we've been very successful in in Q3 getting that embedded and that'll roll out onto the 2025 and beyond.
spk10: So Justin again all of the above you're quite right you hit the nail on the head we can't say that it was just the mine contractor the mine contractor does take instructions the mine contractor follows a mine plan so part of what Johann and Daniel and our team have been doing is tightening the mine plans for the you know in all the ways that Johann has just mentioned you're aware of this a life of mine plan is a certain number of ounces and that doesn't mean that the ounces aren't there but the question is in terms of a shorter mine plan are the ounces where you want them to be when when you're there when you're mining and so that means you have to develop different approaches as Johann mentioned on how to make sure that we're doing that so with that then we can better direct what our mine contractor does but there is an issue with the mine contractor as well we we saw late last year early this year that the alignment of what a mining company needs what the key performance measures are and what the the the mine services agreements provided we're not there we we also saw that we needed a mine contractor that was better capitalized that's not a we're not suggesting that there's an issue with the mine contractor that we have but there's always an opportunity for improvement and that's what we were looking to do here so we believe now and certainly with the Kermuk process and that was a that was a a request for proposal we went through detailed analysis of the proposal made by several mine contractors the conclusion was that this was the mine contractor for us at Kermuk and as we evaluated it we said it's a well capitalized company they understand supply chain they understand customs import export they understand logistics a big part of their business is is infrastructure builds bridges roads and the like and so that translates well into the mine contracting side they want to build out their mine contracting business because it's recurring business and we saw this as an excellent fit an excellent opportunity and as Eduardo said we're paying the same rates but we better pay and gain for provisions better key performance measures and better alignment in terms of what they can deliver to what we're
spk02: expecting understood thanks Peter that was that was really helpful color and thanks very much I'll fair the line thanks Peter Gerardo appreciate appreciate your time
spk01: thank you once again please press star at this time if you have a question and the next question is from Kerry McCurry from Canon Corps Genuity please go ahead
spk12: hi just to follow up for me in terms of year end reserves and resources obviously you've added a lot of answers over the last few years so just wondering you know it's late in the year where the best opportunities to add ounces this year and then secondly just given the changes in mallies with the fiscal regime is that going impact your Sadiola reserves resources
spk11: okay it's Greg here um regarding the exploration opportunities I think we've already seen that happen in South Sadiola with Cicacotta West which is you know this time last year we weren't talking about that this year we are as a as a feed alternative for early 2025 and I think that'll get bigger Sadiola keeps producing those for us there's another prospect there Fe 2.5 that's looking very promising as well so Sadiola we continue to find oxide gold deposits to supplement what's going to be predominantly fresh feed and if that makes that's better revenue for the group then we can continue to do it I don't think that will continue to find those replacement ounces for oxide for the next several years at Sadiola um in Cote d'Ivoire once again I think we've had another year where we've replaced all of production with new ounces and we'll continue to do so and we will and then we grow ume double flow as a as a longer term alternative for some of the for bonecrow and agar so um or supplement it so I think both of those project sites where we have operating mines we're well in front of being able to replace ounces with new discoveries um and in Kamook well it's it has amazing potential um we're still working on the mining license but outside of the mining license on our exploration licenses we think exists more of the same same sort of scale um and and turning that into a world-class project with with you know exponential growth in the reserves and we continue to see that and we we're identifying more targets and we can drill at the moment we're still drilling 200 000 meters of exploration a year um all the rigs are drilling gold at any one time and there's 15 of them so yeah we're staying in front
spk10: Greg the other question was uh do we see an impact on our as a result of the royalties and possibly higher costs
spk11: impact on the total
spk10: reserves
spk11: other reserves um no I think because we've we've we've looked at other enhancements peter that more than make up for those and they're not baked in yet recovery enhancements um we're still using 1500 gold reserve um so yeah there and the processing enhancements more than yeah
spk10: and and uh let me supplement that by saying that because of the low cost already at uh at sadiola once the second phase is completed uh the impact of royalties is significantly less and so uh our view on it and again we're running we're running through that process as we complete my plans for year-end budgeting it doesn't look as if there's an impact on our reserves and resources for sadiola's fresh ore
spk12: all right great thanks peter and that great
spk01: thank you there are no further questions registered at this time i'd like to turn the meeting back to peter maroney
spk10: um ladies and gentlemen thank you for making the time uh it has been um a pleasure being on this call with you we look forward to engaging in uh in early next year on our on our fourth quarter it it does look as if all the things that we've been saying are coming to fruition um mining is never easy but i'm confident in saying to you that we've got a management team that is competent and capable of dealing with the challenges that we've been facing anticipating those challenges some of the questions have related to risks i think ingrid asked a question about risk and so we're anticipating risks managing those and we're confident being able to deliver on the opportunities and manage the risks so with that thank you very much we look forward to speaking with you further on our next conference going
spk01: thank you the conference has now ended please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation
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