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Barrick Gold Corporation
5/3/2023
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. This is the event operator. Welcome to BEREC's results presentation for the first quarter of 2023. Following today's presentations, a question and answer session will be conducted. If you have a question and are joining the event by telephone, please press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. We will also be taking questions from those in the room. As a reminder, this event is being recorded and a replay will be available on Barrick's website later today, May 5th, 2023. I would now like to turn you over to Mark Bristow, President and CEO of Barrick. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much and ladies and gentlemen, a very good morning to those here in Toronto and of course a good day to those around the globe. As you know, we're going to be talking about our results for Q1 2023 today. And I thought I'd start off by just pointing to the fact that as the different global powers seek to extricate the world from the many challenges and indeed crises we currently have to contend with, we have a lot of talking but don't see much action. Instead of fantasizing about some post-industrial idyllic state, the world's political and business leaders should perhaps be considering a better future for all, not just for the wealthy countries. This requires, of course, investment in the development of sustainable enterprises driven by cleaner energy and extending to the many parts of the world. In fact, most of it, which have been left behind by the West's economic advances. Mining has historically been the catalyst for economic growth in underdeveloped countries. And I would argue that the case for investment in mining in those countries is stronger than ever. particularly as many are rich in the resources required to make the world a better place for all. At Barrick, we have always been committed to investing in the future, and in the process, we have created some remarkable value for our broad base of stakeholders. I'll share a few instances of those with you in the course of this presentation. This is the usual cautionary statement, a copy of which can be found on our website should you wish to study it more closely. At the start of the year, Q1 was a softer production quarter due mainly to the major planned maintenance exercises at Nevada gold mines and mine sequencing at Kibale. Free cash flow increased despite the lower production, while adjusted net earnings per share also increased to 14 cents. Operational highlights included the near completion of the massive Pueblo Viejo expansion project, which I'll tell you more about later, a robust performance from Turquoise Ridge, and the delivery of first production stoves ahead of schedule from the new Goncoto underground mine. All in all, we're in good shape to ramp up our performance throughout the year. And I would point out that we are not forecasting a hockey stick end, but a stepwise move through the year. We also recently published our annual sustainability report, and if you haven't seen it yet, it's well worth a look, and it's on our website. Group operating results. This is a summary of those operating results, which lists the factors that impacted on production in quarter one, and those that are expected to drive performance through the latter half of the year. This should ensure we achieve our gold and copper production within guidance, as well as the cost guidance we provided at the start of the year. Despite the lower production, our high-quality asset portfolio increased free cash flow and allowed us to maintain a 10 cent quarterly dividend in line with our performance dividend policy. Our tax contribution report was also published last month, which highlights our significant contributions to the countries where we operate. As shared with you last quarter, we experienced three tragic fatalities in January. We've taken a long, hard look at our safety protocols and practices. And during a week-long group-wide workshop, we evolved a new approach, which we have called the Journey to Zero. Every one of our corporate and regional leadership teams have spent time at the operations, reinforcing our organisational values captured in our DNA and reminding ourselves that safety comes with caring and committed partnerships, where we call on unsafe practices and stop work until we have a safe way to continue. Subsequently, we have seen an encouraging decrease in the number as well as the severity of work-related injuries. But as I said, this is a journey we have just commenced and to which we are fully committed to achieving. And it's actually quite encouraging. Today I sent a note to the North American teams, including Nevada. They had their first injury-free April. So that's a good step forward. We've mapped that road to zero and how you can see the very specific steps we're taking towards achieving that goal. This has been the single biggest focus for the entire company and remains our top priority with a particular focus on creating a culture where everyone has the responsibility to stop unsafe work practice. On the environment front, there was no Class 1 environmental impacts during the quarter. Our water use efficiency rate was again above the 80% target, and our greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 18% quarter on quarter. We have continued investing in our communities through our community development committees and embarked on an educational partnership journey with Tanzania, amongst others. On the biodiversity front, the first white rhinos are expected to arrive in the Democratic Republic of Congo soon. as part of our mission to restock the species in the country's Garamba National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, which we've long supported. As I mentioned earlier, we've just published our 2022 sustainability report, and you can see some of its highlights here. It's worth noting that during the year, we spent $6 billion on goods and services with local suppliers and invested some $36 million in community development projects in line with our philosophy of partnering with our host countries. Moving to the operations, as usual, I'll start the operational review with North America, which, as I've said before, we regard as our value foundation. From our base in Nevada, we've started looking at the potential Tier 1 hosting regions elsewhere in the United States, as well as in Canada. With the complex work of combining two sets of assets and people accomplished, a new leadership in place and a bankable 15-year business plan, the vision we had for Nevada gold mines can now be fully realized. In Q1, production at Carlin was impacted, as I've already said, by the planned conversion of the autoclave to a carbon-in-leach process plus the planned maintenance of the gold strike roaster. The focus is now on proving stability and throughput. At Cortez, the emphasis remains on ramping up the Gold Rush project, where the record of decision is now expected in the second half of this year. There is no significant impact anticipated for 2023 production, and the potential impact to 2024 and onwards is being reviewed. Turquoise Ridge's performance continued to improve on the back of the first full quarter of production from its recently commissioned third shaft. In Nevada, the safe and efficient drilling ramp-up this quarter returned robust intercepts across all the Tier 1 districts, delivering further resource growth in support of our 15-year plan. With snow receding from the higher ground in a very long winter, we are planning to build on our success at Four Mile by stepping out around the recent Dorothy discovery. As I said last quarter, this is a very exciting area where we continue to discover thick and continuous high-grade mineralization, which we expect will materially enhance the existing Four Mile resource. At Turquoise Ridge, drilling continues on extensions of the BBT resource, as well as testing between the mega-pit in the hunt for a high-grade feeder. And on the Carlin Trend, bold step-out drilling between Leval and Goldstrike is intersecting strong and continuous alteration and local high-grade mineralization worthy of follow-up. Elsewhere, as I pointed out in the beginning, in North America, our exploration is opening up new frontiers, and we've started building a significant presence there. In western Nevada's Walker Lane Mineral Belt, we've secured the Pearl String property through an exploration agreement and additional claims staking. In Montana, we've staked 100 square kilometers of claims where we've identified a potential target area for both copper and gold. And we are working on other opportunities in other prospective regions in the western United States. In Canada, we are progressing the PIC project near Hemlo, relogging its historical core to guide modeling and targeting. Also in Canada, we've signed a binding term sheet with Midland Exploration to earn up to 75% of the Patris property in southern Abitibi. We move now south to our Latin American and Asia Pacific region, which had a busy quarter highlighted by the progress at Pueblo Viejo, a prime example of successful value creation by Barrick. And of course, the exciting new Recodec project is starting to take shape, which I'll touch on in a little more detail, and I'll update you on our stepwise move towards restarting the Pogra project. At the time of the merger... In 2019, you would recall Pueblo Viejo, a Tier 1 mine, was rapidly nearing the end of its life, despite its enormous resources. It simply did not have the tailing storage capacity to process them. We are investing around $2 billion on a 100% basis in expanding and upgrading the operation. And after long and considered engagement with the Dominican government and the community around the mine, we have identified a site for a new tailing storage facility. The new plant was more than 90% complete at the end of the quarter, and we've started an aggressive commissioning program in April, targeted to be complete, fully complete, in line with our plan during July. As a reminder of what I have said in the past, the existing storage facility can cope with the tailings until 2027, when the new one will have been completed. The project will extend Pueblo Virgo's Tier 1 life by at least 20 years at an average annual production rate of more than 800,000 ounces per year. And its success is a tribute to the partnership between management, our host country, and the surrounding communities. Management also deserves credit for keeping the mine operating efficiently, despite the inevitable disruptions caused by construction and the tie-ins. Valadero made a promising start to the year, but as I'm sure you all appreciate, Argentina has a worsening currency crisis. and import restrictions, a change in fiscal policies almost monthly, and as a result, the operating environment is becoming increasingly difficult. We continue to work constructively with the San Juan provincial governor and his government to try and find solutions for the longer term. Our planned headcount optimisation and the higher gold price have somewhat mitigated the operations negative projections for this year. But there's still a lot of work to be done on the cost profile and the resource expansion to ensure Valadera's long-term success. We have had some recent success with our exploration programs around the operation, most notably at the Morro Escondida target, and we continue to extend the system through drilling. A generative exploration review of Central and South America continues to refine key focus areas where ground consolidation is progressing as planned. Five drill-ready targets in the Austral project in Peru are moving up our resource triangle. And as I've mentioned, we're testing some targets around Valadera as part of our Life of Mine extension strategy. A high-level project study on the Pasqualama project is also scheduled for completion later this year. Moving across the globe, in Pakistan, the updated feasibility study on the Rikadik project is scheduled for completion by the end of next year, with first production expected in 2028. In the meantime, our social investment program has started with the rollout of the first community development committee and a drive to bring schooling to the region. The first school was inaugurated at the Hamai village, which will provide education for children from the community. And we're also very proud of the fact that the enrollment of the first students was done on a 50% basis. boy and 50% girl basis, which is a significant step forward in that region. The reconstruction of the runway at the site, which is now complete, will improve access and reduce the need for road transport. And the selection of a project engineering partner for the project, both for the feasibility study and later on design and construction, is nearing completion. And some key definition studies are now up and running. As I indicated earlier, and as you may have seen in the press, a new PORGRA progress agreement was signed in March between Barrick New Guinea Limited, the Papua New Guinea government, and New PORGRA Limited. New PORGRA Limited has initiated the steps to apply for a new special mining lease, which is a key step to the reopening of the mine. There's currently a lot happening as we progress towards getting this mine up and running. Back across to Africa and the Middle East, this region finished well ahead of planned gold production for the quarter, setting the scene for another year of strong delivery. As I've said before, if North America is our value foundation, then Africa and Middle East region is foundational to Barrick's performance. In Mali, Lulo Goncato produced its usual robust performance with new Goncato underground mine making its first contribution ahead of schedule. LULO's 40-megawatt solar power expansion project continues to advance with commissioning of the first phase expected by the end of this year. And when complete, it is slated to reduce carbon emissions further by a further 63,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. The Lulo-Felami district, which straddles the border between Mali and Senegal, remains highly prospective and all key structural corridors in the region are being reviewed in the search for the next world-class discovery. At Bambadji in Senegal, drilling has started on priority targets along the 26-kilometer main shear zone. And at Lulo, initial drilling on the Gaara West Corridor has confirmed the potential for a significant but largely untested mineralized structure. Across the continent, in the DLC at Kabali, production was in line with planned sequencing and planned maintenance. Grades are forecast to improve from this quarter as development opens up access to new stoping fronts, improving underground flexibility. Like Lulo Goncoto, Kabali has a high potential for major discoveries, as has been shown in the past. Exploration continues along the principal mineralized corridor, which still hosts multiple opportunities. Targets currently being advanced include potential underground satellites at Mengu Hill and Wari, and new mineralized systems between the KCD Garamba and the Kombakola ore bodies. And in Tanzania, We have another success story. You may recall that when we took over there a few years ago, these mines were derelict, burdened by major social and environmental abilities and with operators despised by the entire country. In very short order, we reinvented the mines, which now between them deliver a tier one production profile, formed a groundbreaking benefit sharing partnership with the government and settled the legacy issues. The potency of Barrick's stakeholder relations and impact is demonstrated by our recent commitment to invest $30 million in partnership with the government to extend and improve the country's educational infrastructure. Also during the past quarter, our growth initiatives in the Africa and Middle East region focused on expanding our footprint in all its Tier 1 districts, as shown on this map, and optimizing our exploration to deliver high-impact discoveries within our existing portfolio. We are reviewing new operational frontiers in West Africa, delivering new projects in Saudi Arabia, and we are developing multiple exploration opportunities across East and Central Africa for both gold and copper. Talking about copper, I turn now to our copper operations. which as you are aware, we are on track to deliver significant expansions. At the time of the merger, Lemwana in Zambia was a doubtful starter. But like PV and the Tanzanian mines, we have transformed it almost beyond recognition. The super-pit pre-feasibility study, which includes a potential new mill expansion and tailing storage facility, is advancing, scheduled for completion next year. This project could extend the mine's life into the 2060s and elevate it to Tier 1 status. In the meantime, we've also reinvigorated our copper belt exploration leadership and begun the transition to an owner-operator fleet for waste stripping at Lemuana, which should deliver a significant cost reduction. In Saudi Arabia, in conjunction with our joint venture partners, Marden, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we have received an expiration license for the nearby Umar Damar permit, in addition to the Jabal Saeed South permit, and initial fieldwork has started on both these prospects. The 2020 merger was designed to create a business that would deliver sector-leading returns. And as you can see from this comparison with the GDX and SpotGold, we've outperformed these benchmarks. Step by step, we have worked to deliver on our strategy that we shared with the market back in September 2018. with just about every objective we outlined then having been fulfilled. Today, I'm immensely proud of where we have got to, although we still have a lot more to do. With the proven ability to replace the reserves we are mining, we are not reliant on M&A to grow. Our new projects on the horizon should see us grow our production profile, and this affords us the luxury of focusing on our organic initiatives while being able to choose external opportunities when they arise. I believe we have passed an important milestone this quarter on our journey to become the world's most valued gold and copper miner. As I've often said, mining is a long-term game and the foundation we have laid will ultimately be reflected in the full value of the company. So ladies and gentlemen, to finish off my presentation, how some of the key reasons for investing in Barrick. We own what are indisputably the best assets in the business. We have a clear and proven long-term strategy which we execute with disciplined effectiveness. We consistently invest in our future. Our existing mines support a 10-plus year production profile which our organic growth projects will enhance. Our reserves are constantly replenished by our successful exploration programs, which include exploring worldwide for our next major discovery. And finally, we are a leader in sustainability and our actions in this field produce measurable results that benefit all our stakeholders. In short, At Barrick, we do as we say. And I thank you for your attention, and we'll be happy to take questions, starting, I believe, with the people in this room. Thank you, Lois.
Hi, Mark. Thank you so much for the presentation today. Nice to see you. I wanted to ask you about some statements you made in an article interview from back in March. It was with S&P. And you made the comment that M&A should only be pursued if the target is stressed. And I wanted to get your idea as to what that stressed means. And further to that point, What type of M&A makes sense to Barrick today?
Yeah, so I can't remember that quote, I must admit. But it makes sense. So whoever said it. But, you know, the point is that I've always said there are two reasons you buy companies. And that is if they're really good assets or they are, it's a company that has those really good assets and is badly run. or inefficiently run. And as you know and you've seen repeatedly during these times of higher commodity prices and less options, any asset that's half decent gets a big multiple on it. So then you start making a decision not against the asset, but your view of the gold price or the assumption the gold price is going to continue going upwards. And you know, I mean, everyone in this audience knows that doesn't happen. The gold price goes up and down, not necessarily in that order. And so it does get then down to the synergies and whether you have the ability to add to the opportunity that you're pursuing. And there's an interesting graph. We were talking with the exploration team yesterday If you take, and I've shown this before, and we can share it for you on our website, but if you look at Barrick in its heydays, its early days, and Rangold Resources through its entire life, all the M&A we did, and we both did M&A, came with significant increase in reserves. material expansion on the drill bit and a classic one is kabali which had five million ounces we've mined 10 and we've got 10. I mean, that's value creation. We bought LULO with half a million ounces, and we've delivered, we've mined also around 10, and we've got 10 left, or more than 10. So it's 22 million ounces on the back of that first half a million ounces. Tongan, we discovered. Marilla, we discovered. And the classic one is Goldstrike. When Barrick bought Goldstrike, I think they bought like 3 million ounces. And it's produced 33 million ounces. So those are the debates that we have. And if you're really looking to create value rather than gamble, that's the opportunity. And as you know, there's different views in Canada about how to create value. Some people say you can only grow through M&A, and I very clearly say the way you create value is through the drill bit, adding ounces. Buying them doesn't create value. It might increase your production. And again, if you take some of our peers... and you listen to their messaging, and you take my messaging, it's all about sustainable profitability. So then it's about what's the acquisition target, and what does it do to your profitability? Because that's our focus, grow value, and not just growth. And a classic example is if you look at our series of transactions in 29 that were very strategic. driven off the back of a two and a half year engagement, thorough due diligence. We came out in September 2018 with a clear set of deliverables, including people. If you take Newmont's acquisition of Goldcorp, it was purely opportunistic. And so that's the difference. And I'm not trying to pick on anyone, but there's a different business philosophy in one, and there's a very clear business strategy when it comes to Barrick. And so when it comes to M&A, as you know, we have worked and looked at everything that's been put in the market. And we've also looked at many that haven't been put in the market. And we haven't very recently done any. But when you look at the Tanzanian deal and the Nevada deal, that happened very quickly because they fitted all our filters easily. And that's the way we'll continue to do it. And very clearly, as you go, and this is like 2011. Gold price up, no one's invested, no one's got exploration teams, and so you have to buy. And the people who make the money are the sellers. And so that sort of doesn't fit our business. You can go to the second one.
Yeah, I was going to ask one follow-up, and it's Lawson Winder from B of A Securities, by the way. Around that same time, you made a comment that you wanted to see copper grow to 30% of the profitability of the business. I think it's sub-20% right now. So I'd also love to get your thoughts on what are the elements that drive that potentially beyond just the Lemuana super pit. Thanks.
So, again, thank you for that question because if you go back in 20 – in 2018, we were very clear that if you want to be relevant in this public market of mining, as a gold miner, you're going to have to grow and include copper in your portfolio. And we didn't do it because it's suddenly a fad and somebody's trying to make lots of batteries. We identified it as a very strategic metal. It's as strategic as gold is precious. And so we set out to build that. And the growth sits in Jabal Said. We've increased the production there by 50%. It's a completely different mine to what it was in 2019. We've grown its footprint materially with these last two deals in a real partnership with Saudi Arabia, where it's 50-50 and we are the operators in a formal structure. And that's not common in Saudi. And, of course, you've seen us working with Saudi, and we've spoken a lot about the opportunities that that partnership will bring further into South Asia. And then... Lemoana, we looked to sell it initially. By the time we had our first look at it, very quickly, I mean, we dropped the mining cost by 50%. And we found a whole lot more pounds in satellite mining. And what those do is they slightly higher, very low strip ratio. They allow us to keep building the profile and strip back the main ore bodies, the two main ore bodies. And so that's the sexy part of Lemuana in that you can keep the money, you can finance that big expansion rather than go into another negative capital dip. And then, of course, you've got Ricker Dick. And Ricodec is a world class deposit. It brings both gold and copper production in an organic way. We haven't bought it. It was paid for a long time ago as an early stage project by Barrick and Antofagasto. But we've now got 50% instead of less than that because it was a shared asset. We're partnering with the country. It's opening up a whole new exploration frontier for us. So when you just take that and Lamarna, Lamarna will be the equivalent of our 50% share of the two phases of Recodec as far as contribution. Because Lamarna, of course, we have 100%. So you take that and you take our projects in Saudi Arabia, those are all very attractive and make a big contribution taking us towards that. And if you go back and blend it as a gold equivalent, by the time we get to the end of this decade, just on what we've got, not on what we could get, we increased our gold equivalent production by 20%. And so that's material in this mining industry organically. And as you've seen, we have more ounces today than we started with when we did the three combinations in 2019. And that is significant as well in that we are not forced to buy our future production. We've been able to sustain it. We've got more than a 10-year horizon. And again, the geologists were working through us this week, and we can show granularity of replacement of the total resource we mine out five years now as we've extended our knowledge of our unknown ore bodies. And all we need, and we're running the risk of finding something now because our geologists are well embedded in these regions. And I would... I would finish by saying, on top of that, you know, exploration, which very few people in our mining industry really comprehend anymore, is also a key for mineral intelligence in proper organically driven M&A. Because you've now got people, Barrick has... 700 geologists? Joel? 200 geologists across the group. That's just exploration, not MRM. And in the field, they are highly skilled. They're commercially savvy. And that's another strategic advantage which will materialize with time because it takes time to build that... intellectual capital, which is effectively what exploration is. Do you want to say something?
Yeah, just to reiterate what we said at our Invest Today in November, we get to 30% copper organically through those two projects that Mark's talked about in terms of the SuperPIT and Recodec by the end of the decade. So we get there without doing M&A.
Mark, this is Greg Barnes from TD Securities. You've talked a lot about Argentina and how difficult it is to operate there, and you did mention in your comments and your presentation that you're trying to work with the government to help things along. What kind of initiatives can you actually move forward there?
In the governor's office in San Juan, I think we've really built a strong relationship, and as you can imagine, it's been difficult because... The Argentinian political structure at the moment is completely muddled. And so we've got that stability. But he still relies on Buenos Aires for allocation of dollars. And so we spend an inordinate amount of time with, like, the governor of the central bank trying to explain to him, so, governor, do you need dollars? Yes, that's exactly what we need. So we actually print dollars for you. So that loop hasn't completed yet, because what happens is He agrees, but the problem is the central bank is not independent in Argentina. So then some politician in the federal government makes decisions, and it's all about, and we've seen, I mean, I'm an African. I've lived through these crises. I mean, Zimbabwe is probably the best, but we've lived through a number of these. And so when you get into that spiral, and I always say, actually, Argentina would do well without a government. Because it's got all the ingredients of a significant economy. It's got a massive agricultural industry. It's got a mining industry and some oil. And it's got tourism, all dollar-based. But for some reason, people... And so this is a year of electioneering. What we've done, as you've seen, is we've cut back... We've cut back on people. We've worked with the governor of the province to create employment positions. So we just haven't arbitrary cut back, but we've taken... nearly 2,000 people out of Valadera. We've delayed the capital into next year. And at the same time, through our construction royalty programs, we've worked with the province to ensure employment on provincial infrastructure programs. So we've been constructive. And we've, of course, invested in people. We continue to do that. And it's a different place today. And it's running the risk of being cash flow positive this year because we made those decisions. And so we haven't gone and mined in an irresponsible way. You remember Julian Baring used to say, if you can't mine gold at a profit, leave it in the ground. And so that's really our philosophy in Valadero. We're mining the gold in a proper, disciplined way, in a profitable way. We haven't stopped exploring because that's the future and the value creation. And again, I go there every quarter. And the frustration is it's such a great country with really good people. It's got all these ingredients. And politically, it's just in a mess, right?
Maybe a question for Graham. Can you get cash out of Argentina currently?
I can answer that, yes. So we do, and we can, and we negotiate that. But I'll give you an example. And also, as you've noticed, we keep gold in this vault. So we manage the gold because you don't want to sell the gold and end up with pesos that you can't spend. So we rarely use gold as the ultimate currency. with the approval of the government. But that in itself doesn't really get anyone out of trouble. And then on top of that, I'll just give you some of the latest regulation is when you buy something offshore, you can only pay for it 180 days later. Now, for small companies, that's toxic. For Barrick, we've got a big balance sheet. We've got strong partnerships on the supply side. We can manage that working capital pipeline. But inevitably, it's going to really strangle the mining industry in Argentina.
Just a question taking on to Lawson's, and you were quoted this morning about not being interested in tech metals, but Is the competition for copper resources, copper mining companies just too intense and not something that you can compete in?
You know, I think we've got lots of competitive advantages, Greg, as you know, particularly in emerging markets. But again, every potential transaction to Lawson's first point is different. And tech is not a super producer. But it does have some assets. It's got a really good stake in a partnership in Peru. It's got old... legacy assets here in Canada. It's got the new QB2 in Chile. And it's got coal. And it's got a lot of debt. So when you look at that structure and Glencore's intervention there has been interesting because what Glencore offers that we don't have is synergies, opportunities to really create value. And so, you know, I think, well, I know, from our side, we, given the current situation, there's no logic for us to get involved in anything like that because we don't have coal, we don't like debt. And the synergies in Chile with the Glencore Anglo assets are very real. We don't have anything to offer. But at the same time, we're finding it very interesting to follow the debate because it really is indicating where our industry has got to given that we haven't invested in our future.
Thanks, Mark.
Anybody else want to ask a question? Can you ask the host to explain the trick to ask questions?
Operator, we're going to go to the telephone questions now, please. Sure. We will now begin the telephone question answer session. To join the question queue via the phone, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Cleve Rickert with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Mark, I just wanted to go back. I know you always sort of take the long view, and we appreciate the long-term sort of multi-decade managerial focus, but I really noticed in the press release the importance sort of a little bit of a tilt towards some of the near-term operational work that you're doing on the assets and the improvement that I think you talked about, that stepwise increase on quarterly production volumes now throughout the year as a result of the work that you did in the first quarter. And I'm just wondering if, as we look into 2024 and 2025, You know, there is growth in the plan for both of those years. Should we expect now just that stepwise improvement in volumes to continue through 2025, or will there continue to be some seasonality in the business as you take maintenance opportunistically or quit the plan?
So let's just deal with the first this year. This year we're looking roughly 45, 55, if you take the 4.4 million ounce attributable production, first half, second half, roughly. The drivers of that are, and there's no sudden finish in quarter four. And I'll just take you through the drivers. So Carlin, we expect to step up in quarter two. Cortez will be, you saw a proven quarter on quarter. It'll be similar in quarter three. All the rest are already at run rate in Nevada. And then quarter three and quarter four, Carlin and Cortez will be really at a good place. And also, I think a lot of you will understand this. When you do these big transactions, particularly these big multiple assets, and, you know, we've got to get the people right first. And also, remember, it's partly unionized, and we've just completed a big CBA negotiation, which is interesting. again, just tells you we bring a different philosophy to these things because the union is working alongside non-union people. That's a big step in the United States because it's very clearly understood they work for us, but they're represented by the union. And And also, we've changed management because we've moved from a more controlled strategy as we've merged the organization. And remember, it was four-day weeks for management in Newmont. The Newmont assets were behind on their plans. Barrick was obsessed with cash flow and high grading. So culturally, they were different, and also operational culture was different. And so we brought all that back. And now it's a case, and I've done this so many times, and when you're climbing the hill, it's tiring, and you have challenges. And slowly, you build a habit. And then you get the habit right. And then you'll see it becomes, and I mean, you guys will, some of you have worked through it with Kabali when we ramped it up. You know, Lulo as well. None of the mines we started had sort of straight out the block perfect. And so we're at that stage now, and we've now changed the management as per the, Barrick or Stroke Rand, gold model in that we flatten it. GMs run the mines, not somebody in the corporate. We build strong people around them. We've got very good GMs now in Nevada. And it's taken some time to build some capacity around. And they are, in their own right, big. So running it centrally is not, and I don't like doing that anyway. So now we've got a much better, flatter structure. And also we've had to deal with neglected capital and maintenance. And remember, it was a hostile transaction, so we took it as it came. And we're getting to the point now where we're comfortable with our processing facility. It's still process-constrained. Because as we go underground, we go more to double refractory ore. So we're expanding the Gold Quarry roaster, which was the highest cost, most inefficient of the two roasters. And so with that, that really grows our profile, as you point out, in Nevada over the next couple of years, gently. But it's an improving profile. And then PV is a big step up, back to above 800,000 ounces. We go straight there, almost. this year. And what's nice is the front end of, just to remind you, what we've done there is we've expanded the front end, jacked up our, put in a concentrator, And really, on that basis, we've kept the autoclave feed the same. But we've changed the whole temperature management in the autoclave so it can take higher fuel. And we're definitely seeing sort of a 10... 10%, 12% increase in throughput in the autoclaves. And the sagma we've put in is enormous. So we've built some flexibility into that operation to be able to... It's a bit like Kibali, where you can catch up. Whereas in Nevada, it's always... Unless we've got oxide ore, you know, or heap leach, or the refractory... flow sheet is really your bottleneck. And so the way we're building flexibility for Nevada now with the new team is we're building some extra flexibility underground because that's the way you do it. And so you open up some ore stocks underground with a little bit more grade in it. And then you manage that. So that when you have an unplanned shutdown, you can start up and feed high-grade oil for a while and tidy it up. But then you need to invest in... And that's what we've been doing, is putting in that extra flexibility. So those are the drivers that take us to the better second half. And Kabali was the other soft producer this quarter. And that was because we... At the end of last quarter, remember that quarter four was a higher production quarter. And we fed on our stockpile, the high-grade stockpiles from Cabana. So we're building that back up. And then you'll have a very steady run rate for the last part of the year, for the last three quarters. And when I say it's a different profile to what you've seen this previous couple of years, as we stabilize the organization. And AME, as you know, as I said, it's pretty flat.
Yeah, that makes sense. And I would say that the work that you've been doing over the last three years, maybe it's not clear to everyone and you're getting tired of talking about it, but You know, we're looking forward to, you know.
No, no, I never get tired of talking about it. Because that's what makes the business. And, you know, I'll just add a little bit. You hadn't asked the question. But, again, you look at our policy around dividends. You know, everyone, I mean, this last three years we've had the market calling for dividends. Everyone's been paying dividends. And then suddenly what? And now you see people still paying dividends outside their dividend policy because the market's banging the table saying, I want some dividends. And we didn't get caught up in that situation. sort of vogue. And our balance sheet is in good shape. And the dividends there, as we promised, and we can afford it. And we'll pay it. And we bought shares back when the share price was down, not when the share price was relatively high, like some of our colleagues or our peers. So you can see the difference in the way we run our business compared to a lot of others in this industry. And that's because we are owners, first of all. as management. And I don't have to try and make people owners, because there are. So it's a different approach. And we do have a long-term horizon. And I'll tell you, we will get opportunities. And one thing you can be sure about is when the right opportunity arises, it'll happen.
I think that point is very, very clear, at least from our perspective. Thank you. The long-term view and patience that that takes. I wanted to ask you just one quick follow-up on PORGRA. I appreciate that you're now waiting for the mine lease to get approved. So what happens after that? I mean, just quickly, what are the key milestones? Do you have an export license in place? What needs to happen to get Porgero sort of back into guidance and up and running?
So the big one now is SML. You know, that's what was taken away and issued to Kummel back three years ago. But, you know, we've all got our head around what needs to be done, and that's the process. We will start the mine up on thermal power as the backup power. We are working with the Hela province to restart the gas... power station in Heller, which that's really what makes. Pulver is a low cost, high production, when it comes to gold, project. Apart from that, we have agreed the scope of the shareholding that the landowners get. That has to be ratified through a development forum, but it doesn't hold the production up. The production, the restart is all around the SML. The operator agreement, which we've got, I think, three points left on it, and... And there are a couple of the mine development agreement. Is it mine development contract? I think it's called MDC. That's also a document that has to be completed. And we are now working towards, we've done all the sort of review of all the mobile fleet so that they're operational. because we can. We've cleaned out all the mud from the mine. We're continuing to do that. We have a fleet of trucks in Australia that are sort of very secondhand but close to new that we have kept offshore, which we'll bring onshore as we finalize the structure. And that'll help with the mining. And then we're doing some rehab on the tankage, the CIL tankage, and slowly inching our way to be operationally ready when the SML is approved and we get the fire. And we're working hand in glove with the government and the MRA, the Mineral, what's the name, Authority, But you know, and the other big thing is we're just over 1,000 people unemployed now. We are employing people. And that's one of the big critical parts is getting enough people up to run it and dealing with the security around the mine, which is a government thing. And I think we've all landed on that now. But you know, Papua New Guinea is a tough place to operate.
Understood. All right. Thank you very much, Mark. Appreciate it.
The next question comes from Tanya Yakusnik with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Great. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Mark, can you just give me an update as to what's happening with the gold rush permit? It seems to be getting delayed quarter over quarter, so I'm just trying to understand what exactly is keeping up the delay, and then Just looking at the mine tour that we did in September, I thought that portion of Nevada gold mine production, I think Gold Rush was going to be at about 100,000 ounces this year on 100%, and moving higher to commercial production in 2026. I thought it was about 400,000 ounces or thereabouts. Can you kind of give me an idea of, A, what's happening with obtaining this permit, and and B, what sort of production profile was scheduled to come in 24, 25 that could potentially be impacted? Thank you.
Yeah, so... This is the challenge of doing business in the United States. There are lots of good things about it, but permitting is not one of them. And so there's been some Ninth Circuit Court decisions around permitting just recently. We are not impacted by that in any legal fashion. But again, the BLM have slowed the process down. What I can say is that we've got a very good constructive working relationship with them. We're back on engaged, and the EIA is right at a point where it's nearly ready to go to Washington if it hasn't already got there at the moment. But that is delayed. And as I said in my speech, right now the delay we can manage, we're still guiding around a million ounces, 950 to just over a million ounces for Cortez. Gold Rush is embedded in Cortez, and we manage it that way. And we are looking at whether, you know, if this goes beyond this year, we have had some relief under our hiccup situation. permit, which is the project expiration permit under which we're doing trial mining at the moment. And so that's, you know, right now we're looking at, you know, where's the critical path and how can we manage and not compromise the infrastructural development and be able to deliver on our long-term plan for Cortez. And Gold Rush is embedded in that plan, Tanya. So You know, as I said, we are looking at it. We'll let you know. But right now, we have enough flexibility in our operations. And I think that's, as I touched on earlier, that's the big thing that I see in Nevada, that it's taken time to put the working capital in to build the flexibility. You know, Kibale is a 750,000-ounce producer. It's got lots of flexibility because it's embedded in the business. Same with Lulo. But Nevada never had that, and we are doing that. And I think the fact that we're saying to you the rod is delayed, we're not sure exactly when, we do expect it to be this year, but at this stage we've got flexibility to manage it. That's a new development in Nevada.
Okay, and so am I correct to think of that, you know, 950 to a million ounces that, you know, a hundred, you know, thousand of it is gold rush?
No, it's variable. I think a gold rush will slowly grow to your 400,000 ounces and maybe even higher as we develop it. But we're still learning about those breccias. But right now, the million ounce profile for Cortez is built on what we have banked in the gold rush project, but we're still exploring, we're still expanding, we're still learning as we drill out the ore bodies. And the nice thing about this is, Carlin at 1.5 to 1.6 Cortez should settle out above a million ounces, which is a big shift. You can see it's never been there. It was there a long time ago, but not recently. And then you've got 500 going to 600, maybe a little bit higher in Turquoise Ridge. And then you've got Phoenix. And so that's what grows our profile gently over the next two, three years in Nevada, as we've shown you.
Okay, I think I'll move off that. And I've got two other projects I just wanted to ask updates on. If you could, Mark, can you give us an update on what's happening at Donlon Gold in terms of what you're seeing there and what your focus is for this year and longer term?
So what we focused on is what we shared with you in quarter four. Actually, it was quarter three last year after our September, annual September meeting. and that is very specific work streams on revisiting and optimizing certain work streams. And one is, of course, the water management and ensuring that we address the issue around protecting the fish in the waterway. The second one is the trade-offs that we on power, because currently the plan is to bring gas from a gas field that really hasn't been developed on a gas pipeline that doesn't have a road next to it. So there's work to do on that trade-off. We are doing a series of metallurgical tests and trade-offs on the flow sheet because it's a double refractory ore and whether we can improve the recoveries. And is there another way to process this ore? So that's part of the trade-off. We've gone back to the mining and the mine schedule as we've improved our knowledge of the ore bodies and now looking at bench heights and equipment sizing, and then we can get our head around the costs. And another one is limestone, because as you know, when you've got autoclaves, you need limestone. And there's always been talk of... calcium carbonate rocks in the area, but we need to just check if they are actually usable, or where is the closest source of limestone. So there's a couple of these things that could materially change the project. We have also worked hard with our partners, because remember, this is owned by the native Alaskans, and both the people who own the surface rights and the mineral rights, but also all the native Alaskans will benefit from this project. So that's where we are. We are working towards the next review workshop in September again. And after that, we'll be able to update the market. But just to assure you that we see this as a significant resource, and we are putting the necessary effort into it to try and get it into a reserve on Barrick's set of filters.
And you can get that as a reserve when, Mark, do you think?
I don't know. I'm still working on it, Tanya. Yeah.
Okay, we'll wait for the update then later this year on all of those factors that you're looking at. And if I could just ask, you mentioned high-level study coming at the end of the year on Pasqualama. Can you just remind me what's happening there?
I sort of lost track. So we were instructed to – basically the project that was originally conceptualized and designed had a lot of – issues, critical issues, the way it was designed, et cetera, and also social issues. And when I assumed the role here in Barrick, we went to the government and we said, let's deal with this because we were lining up for a fight. And so we agreed to go down and put that permit to bed. just the construction permits. So a lot of the stuff like trenches that put the water, exposed the water, the big, some of the stockpiles that were being blown all over the place, and there was a whole lot of other infrastructure. And so we are busy closing those. We're very close to completing that. At the same time, the expiration permit is still very much intact. And so what we've done is we've embarked, and we did some drilling last year, and we've shown that a substantial part of the resource can be processed through standard leaching and or agitated leach. And so we can do that. We can change the circuit that's already built in the LAMA infrastructure. So that's what we've been looking at. And we want to take it to a point where we can demonstrate a viable, potentially viable project which we can then take back to the governments of Chile and Argentina and point out the opportunity and then work to get a permitting process going to be able to drill out the model and take it from there. That's where we're going. And I think it's our responsibility to do that to ensure that those countries understand there's value in this, both infrastructure and the resource.
Okay, great. I'll leave it for someone else to ask questions.
Thank you, Tanya.
The next question comes from Martin Pradier with Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. I want to know, when I look at cost increases that you have this quarter, there was 16% year-on-year on gold and over 40% on copper. So what gives you the confidence? What are the two or three things that give you confidence that you will be able to maintain the cost flat year-on-year?
So, Martin, it's all in the production, as you know. So, you know, we had a soft quarter, so the costs were up because the production was down, and on a unit basis, that drives all in sustaining costs. With the pickup, as I pointed out, if you've got 45% of this sort of 4.4 million ounce middle of guidance... and then you're going to increase your production to 55% of that, it drives costs, and that's really the biggest driver. You want to add to that, Graham?
No, that's spot on. I mean, if you look at the delta in production from Q4 to Q1, you were down about 15%, and costs were up 15%, so there's a very strong correlation there.
You get that, Martin?
If you look at the volumes, we're down 9% compared to Q1 last year. That's too far back.
So you can't really look at Q1 last year because that was pre the inflationary pressure that we were experiencing post the Ukraine crisis. So if you remember... Last year, we started the year with a $65 oil price assumption. 2022 was loaded up being close to $100 of actual oil price, and that drove significant inflation through the business last year. This year, when we look at our assumptions for some of those key inputs, we're using assumptions that are based on prices that are very similar to what we actually experienced in 2022. So really, the Q1 of last year isn't a relevant comparison quarter.
Okay. But you would say that this is in line with what you're expecting, the cost of the Q1? Or it was higher than expected?
Yeah, so it's in line because, as we indicated at the start of the year, we expected this first quarter to be the weakest quarter, and so we expected costs to be highest in this first quarter. And then as the production steps up, we expect the costs to come down. And as we've reiterated, we expect to meet both our production and cost guidance metrics for the year.
Great. Thank you very much. Thank you.
The next question comes from Mike Parkin with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Most of them are asked and answered, but just a follow-up on Nevada. It sounds like you're doing a lot of good things in terms of getting the management in place that you want. In terms of the more general labor force, how are you Tracking relative to filling job openings and just any kind of overall commentary around the Nevada gold mines employment scenario, is it still a bit challenging like it is in some of the other areas of the world? Are you finding it easing and you're getting closer to full employment plans?
So we made, as you know, a while back, made a strategic decision to not continue to change, to chase ever-decreasing, ever-aging traditional mining skill pool and to go and invest in younger miners. engineers and skills. And we've been extremely successful in that endeavor. And we've started a focused process, multiple set of processes, to ensure that we give those young people the skills and the experience that is needed to go into the workforce. And part of that is I think we had, Darren, 50 job fairs or job engagements. What do you call them? 110 this last year or this last quarter? We had over 50 this last quarter. Quarter, yeah. We had 50 job fairs this last quarter. And it's interesting, nearly 50% of young graduates that have joined us this last quarter didn't know what mining was about until they came for an experience at Nevada. At the same time, we've enhanced our compass program for geologists and mineral resource managers and planners and that sort of thing. We now have three mining... schools or mining training centers. We train for underground. We train for open pit. And we training process. So because the United States doesn't have a trade type mentality. And so a lot of our skilled people come from the army or or have just learned sort of a diesel mechanic skill, but they're not trained. And so when we bring in those people, we can train them. And it's also part of our initiative to standardize all standard operating procedures across the Nevada business. And I was there just... 10 days ago, I spent just over a week there. And we visited these schools. And the other thing that struck me for the first time, you're getting 35-year-old, 40-year-old new recruits coming back to work. They're from another industry. So the first signs we're seeing of a tightening labor market. Those are different to the people we're actually targeting, which is the young skills. And again, we've gone all engineers, all financial people. We don't try and go to a mining school because you get a good civil engineer and we've been extremely successful in attracting young people. I think we've employed about 100 young graduates per month the last three months. So just in Nevada. And again, the way we've slowly changed our organogram within Nevada, we are now refreshing our planned headcount. So I can tell you that the turnover has reduced materially. I want to say 20%. And also now we're saying, okay, we've been operating at plan for a long time as we change the way we operate and how we manage people and more efficient. I mean, we've done some interesting things like introduced childcare from 4 o'clock in the morning to 8 o'clock at night. We're looking at multiple people for one job, particularly on the driving side. We're looking at being innovative, and it's driven by our commitment to be Nevadan-focused as far as employment goes. And again, our percentage Nevadans in our workforce are significantly up, and so is our... Local purchase. I mean, 80% of all our purchases are now Nevada-based. And when I first arrived there, there was like 20. So a lot of effort in that. I'm not answering it in real numbers, but as we progress this, but we've certainly got all the arrows pointing in the right directions. And one thing I can tell you is that people that say that young 22-year-olds to 26-year-olds haven't got ambition is untrue. And we've got, and there's a lot, I mean, we've just employed some of the top students out of the British Columbian universities for Nevada because we went and got them. So, you know, we are seeing and we're excited about that potential because that also will change the way we operate. You know, because that, you know, I'll give you an example. You take a 50-year-old mining civil engineer or electrical engineer and ask him to do AR or data analytics. He struggles. Get a 24-year-old young graduate in any one of the engineering fields, and it's part of their course. They're good at it. And that's where this world is going. And just accessing the data points on a big 300-ton truck, we've been able to improve our efficiencies. And it's not just about being AR savvy. You've got to have the full engineering skills. skill to be able to apply it in our industry anyway.
Thanks very much, Mark. I appreciate that. How did it go?
There are no more questions from the conference call.
Thank you very much, everyone. Great seeing you again. We'll be catching up with some of you during the next while. Again, I'll just say the team's always available. We are going to see some of you down in Dominican Republic, I believe, so we look forward to that. Again, if you've got any questions, we haven't given you time to ask. The team's around. We're all on the end of our phones, so thank you very much again.
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