Acadian Timber Corp.

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the KDM Timber 3rd Quarter 2022 Analyst Conference Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After this speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star 1-1. Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker host today, Susan Wood, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Acadian Timber's third quarter conference call. With me on the call today is Adam Szyparski, Acadian's president and chief executive officer. Before discussing Acadian's results, I will first remind everyone that in discussing our third quarter financial and operating performance, the outlook for the remainder of 2022, and responding to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and future results may differ materially. For further information on our known risk factors, I encourage you to review our news release and MD&A, which are available on CDAR or on our website at AcadianTimber.com. I'll begin by outlining our financial highlights for the third quarter ended September 24th, 2022. Then Adam will comment on our operations market conditions, and outlook for the remainder of the year. During the third quarter, Acadian benefited from continued strong demand for its products. Volumes were lower as compared to the same quarter of 2021 as a result of limited contractor availability, but the lower volumes were substantially offset by stronger prices across all products, excluding biomass. Sales for the third quarter were $23.6 million, compared to $24.5 million in the prior year period. Sales volume, excluding biomass, decreased 15% compared to the prior year period, primarily as a result of the limited contractor availability. Weighted average selling price, excluding biomass, increased 11% year over year, benefiting from strong saw log prices and improved pulpwood prices driven by strong demand as well as the partial recovery of rising fuel costs from our customers. Operating costs of $19.2 million in the quarter were $.3 million lower than the prior year, reflecting lower harvesting and timber services activity offset by higher contractor costs and fuel prices. These higher costs drove a 14% increase in weighted average variable costs as compared to the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $4.5 million during the quarter compared to $5.4 million in the prior period. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 19% compared to 22% in the prior year period. Our net income for the third quarter was $4.8 million compared to $0.3 million in the prior year period. The variance in net income was primarily the result of lower operating income and gains on sales of Timberlands offset by higher fair value adjustments as compared to the prior year period, and changes in the non-cash unrealized foreign exchange loss on long-term debt. Acadian generated $3.3 million of free cash flow and declared dividends of $4.9 million to our shareholders during the quarter, or 29 cents per share. I'll now move into the third quarter results for our New Brunswick operations. Sales for our New Brunswick Kimberlands for $19.9 million compared to $19.3 million during the prior year period. Sales volume excluding biomass decreased by 5%, primarily due to limited contractor availability in the current period. Operating costs in the third quarter totaled $15.4 million compared to $15 million in the prior year period. The increase in operating costs is a result of higher contractor costs and fuel prices offset by lower harvesting activity and timber services activity. Weighted average variable cost per cubic meter increased 14% as compared to the prior year as a result of these higher costs. New Brunswick's adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $4.6 million compared to $4.4 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%, which is consistent with the prior year. Switching over to Maine. Sales during the third quarter totaled $3.7 million compared to $5.2 million in the same period last year. Sales volume, excluding biomass, decreased 42%, also reflecting limited contractor availability in the current year period. The weighted average selling price, excluding biomass, in US dollar terms increased 14% compared to the prior year, with higher prices across all products benefiting from favorable market dynamics, as well as fuel cost recovery from customers. In Canadian dollar terms, prices increased 19%. Operating costs totaled $3.5 million in the quarter, compared to $4.2 million during the same period last year, primarily due to lower harvesting activity, offset by higher contractor costs and fuel prices. Width at average variable costs, excluding biomass, increased 25% as compared to the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $0.2 million compared to $1.3 million in the prior year period, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 6% compared to 26% in the prior year period, primarily due to lower harvesting activity. With respect to Acadian's financial position, it remains strong ending the third quarter with a net liquidity position of $17.1 million including a cash balance of $3.8 million and our revolving credit facilities, which remain undrawn. Our second dividend with the drip in place occurred during the quarter and contributed $1.1 million to our liquidity. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Adam.

Thank you, Susan. Acadian remains committed as our number one priority. During the quarter, we experienced two recordable safety incidents among our contractors and none among our employees. These individuals have made full recoveries and have returned to work. As we have said before, we believe that emphasizing and achieving an excellent safety record is a leading indicator of success in the broader business. Acadian generated solid financial results for the third quarter, despite the challenges posed by increasing costs and limited contractor availability that Susan mentioned. So the greater economic outlook is uncertain, and although harvest levels have been below our targets so far this year, Acadian has experienced steady regional demand and increased pricing for its key products, which we expect to continue for the remainder of the year and into fiscal 2023. This demand should allow for increased harvesting activity through the winter months, and we will continue to actively working with our contractors to increase deliveries for the remainder of the year. I would like to say the limited trucking and harvesting contractor availability was unexpected and due to a number of factors, and that the Acadian timber team continues to work hard at onboarding new contractors with multiple additions during the fourth quarter in time for the winter harvesting season. Switching over to our third quarter results, we were very pleased that overall pricing for softwood saw logs and softwood pulpwood increased 14% and 12% respectively. compared to the prior year period. In New Brunswick, although demand for softwood saw logs remains strong, sales volume decreased by 14% due to limited trucking contractor availability. As previously mentioned last quarter, there is an increase in regional demand for softwood pulpwood, resulting in volume increases from 4,000 cubic meters to 24,000 cubic meters compared to the prior year period. In Maine, limited harvesting contractor availability resulted in softwood saw log volumes decreasing by 49% as compared to the prior year, and softwood pulpwood volumes decreased by 21%, although these volumes are relatively modest. We continue to experience solid demand for our hardwood saw logs, which, combined with our continued merchandising efforts, has resulted in hardwood saw log pricing increasing 18% overall compared to the prior year. However, hardwood saw log volumes in New Brunswick and Maine decreased 15%, and 62% respectfully being negatively impacted by the limited contractor availability. Hardwood pulpwood sales volume decreased by 21% in New Brunswick and by 31% in Maine compared to the prior year period. However, demand is strengthened and due to reduced harvesting throughout the region, prices increased in New Brunswick by 20% and 21% in Maine. Biomass sales volumes were down 21% compared to the prior year period However, market conditions continued to improve during the quarter, with pricing increasing by 17% year over year, allowing us to begin increasing shipments to our customers. Turning now to our outlook, as we have all witnessed, there continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty in the North American economy. With interest rates rising, as well as housing sales and price growth slowing, consensus forecast has been lowered to approximately 1.55 million U.S. housing starts in 2022 and $1.4 million in 2023, as compared to $1.6 million in 2021. These estimates, however, are still above historical levels. Accordingly, we remain confident that the stability of the Northeast forestry sector, combined with the long-term demand for new homes and repair and remodel activity, will support the demand for and pricing of our products. Though likely to decelerate, inflation is expected to remain a challenge in the near term and to continue to exert pressure on our financial results through the increased contractor rates and fuel surcharges that we pay our contractors. The recovery of the incremental costs from our customers beginning in the second quarter is expected to continue to mitigate some of this impact, and the team continues to work with our customers to ensure we pass through these costs increases as quickly as possible. Although softwood lumber pricing has decreased from its historic levels, demand for softwood saw logs remains stable in the regions in which Acadian operates and, therefore, strong pricing is expected through the remainder of the year. As noted previously, the implementation of a new Crown timber royalty rate system, as announced by the Province of New Brunswick, will not have an immediate direct impact to Acadian's net earnings. the new system may impact future market prices and, in turn, the prices obtained by Acadia for products from its freehold timberlands going forward. As we exit the third quarter, end-use hardwood markets remain stable throughout the Northeast, and as such, demand and pricing for high-grade hardwood saw logs are also expected to remain steady as we close out 2022. Hardwood and softwood pulpwood markets have continued improving, and we expect to remain at elevated levels throughout the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. Finally, the work to develop the forest carbon credit inventory has continued, and the initial model for the project has been completed. As we disclosed back in September, 1.6 million credits have been estimated on a preliminary basis over a 10-year reporting period. The 713,000 of these credits are expected to be registered on the American Carbon Registry in the fourth quarter of 2022. Preliminary credit volumes have been submitted to third-party verifiers who are auditing the model. Accordingly, the final issued volumes could vary from the estimates presented. The impact to Acadian's financial results is subject to the successful marketing of the credits and to the timing of and prices obtained from contracts negotiated with third parties which are not yet in place. However, there is the potential for sales to be realized immediately following successful registration, which, as I just mentioned, is expected in the fourth quarter. In closing, we look forward to finishing the year with an increased contractor base and solid financial and operating performance, supported by our strong balance sheet, increasingly diverse markets, and a highly capable and dedicated team. We will continue actively working with our current and potential new contractors to build deliveries to our customers for the remainder of the year and into the winter harvest season. While we make improvements throughout the business to maximize cash flows from our existing timberland assets, we continue to explore strategic opportunities to grow for our shareholders. With that, we are now available to take your questions. Operator?