10/30/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Altagas LTD third quarter 2025 results conference call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press door zero for the operator. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Aaron Swanson.

speaker
Aaron Swanson
Moderator

Please go ahead.

speaker
Erin [Last Name Unknown]
Investor Relations

Good morning and thank you for joining AltaGas' third quarter 2025 results conference call. This call is being webcast and we encourage following along with the supporting slides that can be found on our website. Speakers this morning will be Vern Yu, President and Chief Executive Officer, and James Harbalus, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We are also joined in the room by Randy Thune, President of Midstream, Lou Jenkins, President of Utilities, and John Morrison, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. We will refer to forward-looking information on today's call. This information is subject to certain risks and uncertainties as outlined in the forward-looking information disclosure on slide two in the presentation. As usual, prepared remarks will be followed by a question and answer session. I will now turn the call over to Vern.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Erin. Good morning and thanks for joining us. I'm pleased to discuss our strong Q3 results and the continued advancement of our key strategic priorities. Our performance in Q3 positions us well to deliver on our 2025 guidance. I'll start by highlighting the key developments from the quarter, which include three new growth projects, an update on our construction progress at LEAF and Pipestone II, and I'll finish by touching on the macroeconomic trends that continue to provide tailwinds for our business. James will then walk you through the details of our Q3 financial results and provide an update on our guidance and outlook. Let's start on page four. Our third quarter results were anchored by strong operational performance in both midstream and utilities. We increased throughput in midstream with record global export volumes and continued operating cost reductions in the utilities. We de-risked our portfolio by adding additional long-term polling agreements, systematically hedged our residual commodity exposures, and made regulatory filings in Virginia and D.C. to maximize our regulatory outcomes.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Our balance sheet remains strong.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Continued deleveraging has expanded our investment capacity. which allows us to increase our secure growth inventory. Pipestone 2 has now reached mechanical completion, and all of the permanent pilots have now been installed at reef. And major equipment like the LPG accumulators are scheduled to be delivered over the next couple of weeks. Our actions continue to be guided by disciplined capital allocation. where we fund the best risk-adjusted returning projects to create long-term shareholder value. As shown on slide 5, we delivered a normalized EBITDA of $268 million, slightly below Q3 2024, due to the pension settlement recorded in 2024. Excluding that item, year-over-year normalized EBITDA grew by 18%. Q3's operational performance was excellent. We achieved record global export volumes in the quarter, over 133,000 barrels per day, with year-to-date volumes up 4%. This reflects strong demand for Canadian LPGs at our open access terminals and great operational performance by our teams. We also saw robust gathering and processing activities, where throughput grew by 3%. Our North Pine Frag Plant recorded 13% year-over-year volume growth, achieving a processing record. We continue to be very active with our regulatory actions. In D.C., we advanced our rate case, while in Virginia, we filed for new rates. We also submitted amendments to extend our ARP programs in Virginia and D.C., which reinforces our commitment to make our systems safer and more reliable. Utilities also performed well, supported by $121 million in modernization spending and a 5% reduction in O&M costs at WGO. We are very excited to announce the FID of three new growth projects this morning. All of these projects are underpinned by extremely strong demand by customers for our services. Reef Optimization 1, or OPTI-1, will add up to 25,000 barrels a day of propane export capacity with a total capital cost of $110 million, $55 million net to AltaGas. The project is expected to be in service in the second half of 2027. As a quick reminder, Canada produces around 500,000 barrels a day of LPGs, where we use half of it domestically and the balance gets exported to the U.S. and Asia. The U.S. has already long LPGs, so Canada needs to increase Asian exports to maximize the value of our product. OptiOne is the first in a series of optimizations and expansions at Reef that will unlock significant additional global market access for Canadian LPGs. We are also excited to move forward with our Phase 1 expansion of the Dimmesdale gas storage facility. The 6-BCF expansion is backed by two 10-year firm service contracts with Tourmaline and Gun Board. The capital cost for the project is estimated to be about $65 million, with a target in-service date of year-end 2026. The project will focus on facility de-bottlenecking to expand capacity and will also significantly reduce our operating costs. We also continue to advance a larger Jimsdale expansion, Phase 2, which will more than double storage capacity from 21 BCF to upwards of 70 BCF. In Michigan, we're moving ahead with the 30-mile Keweenaw Connector Pipeline. following regulatory approval in Q2. Iwana is a $135 million U.S. project that will come online in early 2027. It will enhance system reliability for 14,000 Semco customers. As highlighted on slide seven, our secure growth project inventory continues to increase. We have many more opportunities in the project to offer. and we look forward to announcing additional FIDs as these projects are sufficiently de-risked. We have approximately $5 billion of investment capacity over the next three years, of which $3.5 billion can be dedicated to growth initiatives, which all can be executed while we live within our financial guardrails. Successful execution of these growth projects and utilities in midstream allows us to grow the enterprise at an average of 5% to 7% per year over the long term. Let's move to project execution. Construction on reef continues to be on time and on budget. 77% of the project's costs have either been incurred or committed, with nearly 70% of the capital under fixed price EPC contracts, significantly de-risking the project's cost. Offsite manufactured equipment has started to arrive at Ridley Island, with the first of three LPG accumulators, along with the butane and propane bullets expected to arrive over the next couple of weeks. Fabrication in Asia is progressing to plan, with the remaining two accumulators 95% complete. Steady construction is advancing, and we're now 60% complete. All of the permanent piles are in place, Five out of the 12 platforms are now ready for topside work, and we have begun installing the prefabricated pipeline trestles. We've also made strong progress on the rail loop, onsite roads, and the utilities corridor. Slide 9 highlights some of our recent construction progress. As shown on slide 10, we're pleased to announce that Pipestone 2 has reached mechanical completion. with commissioning underway, and we remain on track to be fully operational by late 2025. I want to congratulate the team on their strong project execution and safety performance. They worked over 420,000 project hours without serious injury, having up to 450 workers on site at peak times with no quality regulatory environmental issues during construction. Moving to slide 11, we want to highlight some of the key macro drivers that support our midstream business. Canadian gas production is positioned to continue to grow and be led by strong economics in the Montigny and LNG demand pull over the long term. With three Canadian LNG projects now operational or under construction and another three at various stages of pre-FID, Canada is positioned to export upwards of 7 BCF per day by 2030. This highlights why we've made considerable infrastructure investments in the Monteney over the past decade. More than half of our GNP and fractionation assets are positioned in this region to service the growing demand for gas processing, liquids handling, fractionation, and global export connectivity. As highlighted on slide 12, the macroeconomic outlook for utilities is equally robust. U.S. energy demand continues to rise with all roads leading back to natural gas as the most scalable, reliable, affordable, and environmentally friendly energy solution. These fundamentals support our modernization investments. where we have long-term plans to replace vulnerable pipelines to enhance our system safety and reliability. These investments will allow us to deliver the most affordable and reliable energy to our customers for decades to come. As you see on the top of the chart, the delivered cost of electricity is more than three times higher than natural gas across D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, and even higher in Michigan. but the delivered cost of electricity is over five times greater than natural gas. Affordable, reliable energy is essential to economic growth in our franchise areas, and it's our responsibility to deliver it. It's becoming increasingly evident that we're operating in a period of growing energy insecurity, particularly in the PGM market. where concerns about power capacity shortfalls are accelerating. We are seeing a massive increase in the gas generation backlog across the U.S., and in PJN alone, the region has 16 gigawatts of gas-fired power generation backlog. To meet rising demand, U.S. electric utilities are increasing capital spending. 2025 spending is up 24% over 2024. Between 2025 and 2027, nearly $700 billion of capital is expected to be invested to support robust power demand and the need to replace aging electric infrastructure. This level of investment will likely put further upward pressure on electricity rates, further enhancing the affordability advantage of natural gas. AlphaGas is well-positioned to benefit from these macro tailwinds that support continued growth in our businesses. We will remain disciplined in how we operate and allocate capital to ensure that we deliver long-term value for all of our stakeholders.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

And with that, I'll turn it over to James.

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Vern, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased with our strong third quarter performance, continued operational execution across the platform, and the progress we've made on our strategic priorities. I'll start with a detailed review of our financial results from each segment, provide an update on the Mountain Valley pipeline, its growth projects, and our monetization process, discuss our 2025 outlook, and close with our value proposition. Let's start with the midstream business on slide 13. Segment delivered a solid quarter supported by strong execution across our integrated value chain. Normalized EBITDA for the second quarter was $204 million, up 13% from $181 million in the same period last year. This performance was supported by record global export volumes, which increased 4% year over year, and was accompanied by stronger realized margins. We exported over 133,000 barrels per day of LPGs across 23 VLGCs during the quarter. This included more than 77,000 barrels per day across 13 ships at Ripit and nearly 56,000 barrels per day across 10 ships from Ferndale, the equivalent of a vessel departing our docks every four days. These volumes approach the effective near-term operational capacity of our current export platform, which highlights the need to bring Reef online and our decision to move forward with the Reef Optimization 1 project. AltaGas's export business was largely protected from commodity price volatility during the quarter through our commercial tolling agreements and our active hedging program. Operating results across the balance of the midstream business was strong and continued to benefit from the strategic locations of our assets, our long-term contracts, and our strong customer base. The greatest strength was seen in our northeastern BC Montney footprint, where North Pine volumes were up 13% Blair Creek volumes were up 9% and Townsend volumes were up 6% year-over-year. Its strength was partially offset by lower volumes at Younger, which is a non-operated facility that experienced an extended, unplanned outage during the third quarter. Volumes at Pipestone 1 in the Alberta Montane were also lower on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter due to a planned turnaround where the facility was offline for most of September. Since then, volumes have returned and the plant is operating near capacity. The value of our Dimmesdale natural gas storage facility was demonstrated during the third quarter, where gas storage reached record levels and highlighted the critical need for increased storage capacity in Western Canada. This reiterated our decision to reach a positive FID on the first phase of expansion for Dimmesdale. Dimmsdale will be critical for balancing needs of the Montney and increased natural gas demand from LNG export facilities. We are pleased with the value and protection the asset will unlock for our customers in the years ahead. In terms of risk management, principally all of AlteGas' remaining 2025 global export volumes are either totaled or financially hedged, with an average FEI to North America spread of approximately $17 US per barrel on the non-tolled volumes. We've also substantially hedged all of our 2025 Baltic Freight exposure through a combination of time charters, financial instruments, and tolling arrangements. Turning to slide 14, the Mountain Valley Pipeline delivered another strong quarter, which reflected the pipeline's long-term contracts and robust demand to move Appalachian gas into key downstream markets. The two BCF per day pipeline is operating near current capacity under 20-year contracts with strong customer demand for additional capacity. Following a highly oversubscribed open season, the partners have increased the size of the proposed MVP boost expansion project by 20%. Boost is expected to increase overall MVP capacity by 600 million cubic feet per day with the mid-2028 in-service date. This is a year earlier than previously expected with the entire 600 million cubic feet per day of incremental capacity fully contracted by investment grade utilities under 20 year take or pay agreements. $450 million US project is targeting an approximate three times CapEx fee that they'll build multiple. The proposed MVP Southgate project is also progressing under the more efficient project plan with FERC publishing its environmental assessment in October. including that Southgate will not cause significant negative impacts from its development, as the project will adhere to certain mitigation measures and environmental safeguards. AltaGas continues to move through our sales process, inclusive of recent positive developments on the pipeline over the past months, and expects to provide an update in the coming weeks. Let's turn to utilities on slide 15. Normalized EBITDA was $68 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to $117 million in the same quarter last year. The year-over-year reduction was principally driven by the absence of the partial settlement of the Washington Gas Post-Retirement Benefit Pension Plan that was recognized in the third quarter of 2024. Excluding this impact, utilities performance was strong as a result of higher revenue from modernization investments, 5% reduction in operating and maintenance costs at WGL and stronger performance from the retail business. The steps we took to reduce our cost structure in 2024 continue to drive productivity improvements that benefit all our stakeholders. By maintaining operating costs within approved rate structures, we preserve affordability for customers while creating financial headroom to invest in asset modernization, system reliability, and safety enhancements improving the reliability of our system and reducing leak rates, which benefits our customers over the long term. We deployed $206 million of capital in utilities during the quarter, including $121 million towards modernization programs and $33 million for new meter connections. For full year 2025, we expect to invest over $700 million in utilities as we continue to make critical investments for the future. We remain active on the regulatory front with two active rate cases and modernization amendment applications in D.C. and Virginia. In July, we filed a $65 million rate case in Virginia, net of the same surcharge, with a requested 10.85% ROE. With a 120-day statutory timeline, we expect interim refundable rates to be in effect by 2025 year-end. In early August, we filed an amendment to the Virginia SAVE modernization program, seeking to extend the program by one year and move forward with an amended three-year plan. The proposed plan is to invest approximately $700 million in modernization capital between 2026 and 2028. Decision on the proposed amendment is expected by 2025 year-end. In D.C., we continue to advance the 2024 rate case filed last August and are expecting resolution by year-end 2025. While the PSE of D.C. continues to review the District SAFE application, we recently submitted an application to extend the existing Project Pipes II program through June 30, 2026, with the additional spending of $33 million U.S., which ensures our modernization investments will continue uninterrupted while earning an immediate return on capital. We continue to progress data center business development initiatives with active opportunities in Virginia, Maryland, and Michigan. Speed studies are underway for both primary and bridge power solutions with pipeline interconnect infrastructure. These projects are being pursued on a de-risk basis through traditional rate regulated investments with unique rate structures. In the corporate and other segment, we reported a normalized EBITDA loss of $4 million, consistent with the third quarter of 2024, as lower G&A costs were offset by lower contributions from Blythe. Turning to our 2025 outlook on slide 16, we are reiterating our 2025 guidance. While we've seen a number of tailwinds and headwinds this year, they've largely balanced out, and coupled with our performance year to date, we are on track to deliver full year 2025 results in line with our guidance ranges for normalized EBITDA and EPS. There are no major changes to our 2025 capital budget as shown on slide 17. We expect to deploy $1.4 billion with 51% allocated to utilities and 45% to midstream as we complete Pipestone 2 while making material advancements on reef. The majority of the utility's capital will continue to support ARP modernization programs and system betterment, with the remainder targeting new business and customer connects. We continue to optimize our capital structure and drive costs out of the enterprise. In early September, AltaGas issued $200 million of 5.38% junior subordinated hybrid notes, with proceeds used to redeem the Series A and Series B preferred shares. This issuance will result in cash savings of approximately $30 million over the initial five-year term due to lower taxes and financing charges relative to the potential reset rate on the Series A and Series B preferred share dividends. In closing, we delivered a strong third quarter, reinforcing the value of our diversified infrastructure platform and our continued operational execution. As highlighted on slide 18, We have a compelling investment proposition with low-risk infrastructure that provides stable and growing earnings and cash flows. We have strong organic growth across the platform. We have been disciplined allocators of capital over the past six years, and we'll continue to focus on that into the future. And with that, I will turn it back to the operator for the Q&A session.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press the star followed by the 1 in a touch-tone phone. If you wish to cancel your request, please press the star followed by the 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Once again, that is star 1 if you wish to ask a question. Your first question is from Jeremy Tonette from JP Morgan. Your line is now open.

speaker
Eli (for Jeremy Tonetta)
Analyst, JP Morgan

Hey, good morning, everyone. This is Eli on for Jeremy. I just wanted to start on the returns and build multiples across, you know, exports, frack, gas processing, storage, all the opportunities you have. It seems like there's a lot of optionality in the hopper, both sanctioned and ahead. So can you talk a little bit about the returns on those projects and then how you kind of stack rank the opportunity set? I think you said $3.5 billion worth of dry powder in the next couple of years and maybe just provide a little more color on that.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, good morning. It's Vern here.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I think what we set out in our prepared remarks was that over the next three years, we have about $5 billion of total investment capacity. We'll use about $400 million a year for system betterment, and then about $500 million a year on ARP programs. After that, we start funding our best risk-adjusted returning And in the near term, the series of midstream projects that we have, as evidenced by Reef Opti 1, are very attractive projects for us where the build multiples are relatively low, given the fact that the base reef project pre-builds out a lot of the common infrastructure for further optimizations and expansions. And that's similar to how we've looked at the Dimmesdale gas storage FID that we did this morning as well. So again, it's lots of opportunities, both in midstream and utilities. Utility build multiples tend to be a little bit higher just because of the difficulty of doing construction in busy metropolitan centers.

speaker
Analyst

Got it, thanks.

speaker
Eli (for Jeremy Tonetta)
Analyst, JP Morgan

And then, yeah, maybe just on the kind of data center-driven power demand, I think you mentioned some pipeline infrastructure opportunities as well in the opening remarks. So are these kind of more of those like bolt-on size projects, or is there anything chunkier out there that would contribute more meaningfully to your system or rate base?

speaker
Analyst

Thanks.

speaker
Blue [Last Name Unknown]
Presenter

Yeah, Eli, it's Blue. Thanks for the question. What we're seeing are smaller projects consistent with what we shared in the past. Those are rate-based items that are in that single-digit millions up to the $40 million range. So we connected one in Michigan recently that was about $10 million. We've got some other projects in the hopper that look to be in those type of ranges. So they're incremental, single-digit up to $40 million that will roll into our rate-based

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Great, I'll leave it there. Thanks.

speaker
Aaron Swanson
Moderator

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

And your next question is from Rob Hope from Scotiabank, Carolina. Is that open?

speaker
Rob Hope
Analyst, Scotiabank

Morning, everyone. So, good to see Reef Optimization 1 sanctioned. On the call, you did mention that there could be a series of further expansions, including Opti2, which is 60,000 barrels. How should we think about the sequencing of these events or the key gating factors? Do you need additional customer commitments, additional engineering and work there, or do you have to have construction largely done on the first phase just logistically to get Opti2 off the ground?

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I can start and Randy can chip in if I miss something, but I think you've hit the nail on the head. We have to make progress on all three fronts before we are comfortable sanctioning Opti2. Number one, I think, is critically we haven't finished the detailed engineering and don't have a firm class three cost estimate yet on Opti2. We see very strong commercial interest for more tolling, but we would need to do a little bit more incrementally commercially to maintain our current 60% total target for the aggregate global export business. And then finally, we want to make sure that anything we go ahead with on Opti2 doesn't impact the in-service date of Reef itself and then Opti1. So that's kind of how we're looking at it. So we'll have much more comfort around all that probably in the Q1, early Q2 next year.

speaker
Rob Hope
Analyst, Scotiabank

All right, appreciate that. And then just maybe over to Dennis Dale, can you confirm that you could move up to 70, I believe is what you said? And then secondly, are you engaging customers already on that expansion, and could that be done in phases as well?

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

The actual number is around 69, and we are in active commercial discussions with a whole host of customers right now.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

And can it be done in phases? Yes. Thank you.

speaker
Aaron Swanson
Moderator

Thank you. And your next question is from Sam Burrell from Jefferies.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your line is now open.

speaker
Sam Burrell
Analyst, Jefferies

Hey, good morning, guys. First off, on MVP, did the upsides of the boost expansion have any impact on the timing of your sales process? I mean, it seems like the upsides make the project more attractive to potential buyers.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I'm wondering if that Sorry, Sam, can you repeat your question? You broke up. Sorry, can you hear me better now? Yes.

speaker
Sam Burrell
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, so just on MVP, did the upsize of the boost expansion have an impact on your sales process timing? I'm just curious what the remaining gating items or hurdles are in getting a deal finalized.

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no, I mean, look, we've been pretty consistent about the fact that we're moving through that process and we are in the very late final stages of our sales process. We have, though, said in the past that we want to get a fair value for MVP. And, you know, you touched on some recent developments in terms of the success that MVP Boost saw in its open season. Obviously, the increased throughput they've been able to realize recently. slightly better rates per decatherm too. So we would expect that valuation to be reflected in any transaction that we're looking to consummate on MVP. But we continue to work our way through that sales process.

speaker
Sam Burrell
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, great. That makes sense. And then on the reef optimization, what drove the decision to upsize that up to 25,000 today? Is that a function of wanting to get the contracted tolling percentage to the right level or perhaps a function of more tolling agreements coming through? And then also, I'm just curious if you can quantify the build multiple on that.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I know that you said that the brownfield expansions are extremely attractive in the past.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think we've seen tremendous interest in tolling from our customers. And obviously, we're right now moving as much LPG as we can to Asia, and that interest continues to grow. The optimization was very well received commercially, so we're very happy to be able to bring that to market. I don't think we're going to comment specifically on the build multiple, but it's a very, very attractive project for us.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

All right. Understood. Thanks, guys.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question is from Maurice Choi from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

speaker
Maurice Choi
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you. And good morning, everyone. Just wanted to start with the investment capacity. You mentioned $5 billion, of which $3.5 billion will go to growth while maintaining your leveraged cart reels. My question is more specific. more of a philosophy discussion about how you see the timing of your growth opportunities versus the funding capacity that you have. Is it that there is a lot of growth opportunities, but your growth investments are limited to $3.5 billion because of your leveraged cartwheels and the capacity, or put differently, there's so many projects that make sense to go for in these years such that you actually have more balance sheet room to do more?

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I think we're in a great position, Maurice, where we have growing investment capacity with the $5 billion represents an uptick over what we've had over the last couple of years. And really, that's on the back of the improvements in the balance sheet and the material growth we've seen in our cash flows. We see lots of opportunities in front of us, both on the utility and midstream side. So I think we're kind of in the right balance where we're seeing an uptick in investment capacity and the fact that we have lots of projects on the go and those projects now have to compete with each other to deliver the best risk-adjusted returns for us.

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

And I wouldn't mind just adding something to that, Maurice. Obviously, our investment capacity, and Vern talked about it, it's increasing and it increases every year, right? I mean, if we look at At the end of 2025, we're going to have Pipestone 2 coming on, which is going to generate incremental EBITDA that will take our investment capacity higher into 2026 and give us additional headroom to fund some of these projects that we just FID'd. Obviously, the completion of the MVP process will increase our headroom within 2026. And the last thing I'll add is that a lot of these opportunities that we have in the pipeline have different gestation periods. So as we start to build out the ones that we've FID'd, and Reef comes online and OptiOne comes online, It just continues to expand the annual investment capacity that we can allocate to the development pipeline that we have in front of us. So there's a timing element to moving those projects ahead.

speaker
Maurice Choi
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

And maybe just to quite follow up to that, are you directionally seeing the risk-adjusted returns staying roughly the same, or do you think that the competition for capital ultimately leads to some of these returns moving higher, be that because customer demand is changing, because the landscape is changing?

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

I think generally the utility risk adjusted returns are staying fairly constant. I think we make progress on all of our capital at the utility as we manage our costs effectively and manage our rate filing process properly. I think it's fair to say in midstream, the returns are higher. Obviously, there's a slightly different risk profile, but I think Those returns are trending in the right direction, particularly on global exports, because of the fact that we've pre-built a bunch of common infrastructure and re-phase one. So the optimizations and subsequent expansions will provide better returns than the initial adjustment.

speaker
Maurice Choi
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks, and if I could finish off my questions with a question on natural gas storage in general. Just wanted to see how you would characterize what is an equilibrium market in Western Canada for natural gas storage. Obviously, like you mentioned, a lot of LNG coming on board. There's probably a lot of other demands for local gas usage as well. But you also have your expansion, let's say, through 269 BCF. That's another one in Aiken Creek as well. So just curious how you would characterize what is an equilibrium market.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I'll make a general comment, then maybe Randy can follow up. I think you've seen a material uptick in production happen in Western Canada as a whole on the back of LNG and potentially even more natural gas production coming to support potential data center opportunities in Alberta. But we've seen natural gas storage remain fairly constant in Western Canada and outside of our expansion and expansions at Aitkin Creek. So I think the amount of aggregate storage available per molecule production has actually come down over the last several years. And even the nature of some of these larger facilities, if there are operational disruptions, you will need more storage going forward. Is there anything you wanted to add to that, Randy?

speaker
Randy Thune
President of Midstream

Yeah, where Dimmesdale is located on the NGTL system, it's upstream of what they call the upstream of James River, and that's where a lot of the new production is coming on. So the changing in flows really helps support gas storage in that area. And also with LNG Canada, that demand, we see that as a big pull. And so, again, that's why natural gas storage is really – and high demand in that area of the system.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you. Your next question is from Robert Cattelier from CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

speaker
Robert Cattellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, everyone. Lots of interesting things on the business development side. I wanted to follow up on the Dimmesdale gas storage here. I wonder if you could just describe how you're approaching the optimization piece of gas storage. Maybe you could comment on how much of your work capacity is contracted versus available for optimization and how you plan to manage that. And then the second part of my question has to do with the implications of storage for the rest of your value chain. So I'm wondering if there's an opportunity to leverage the scarce capacity for integrated deals that include more than one service.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, that's a great question, Rob.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Storage is very valuable, and I think that's why we chose to purchase Dimmesdale with the Pipestone assets as we could offer an integrated service for our customers, and that will be something we'll progress as we look at Pipestone 3 and subsequent expansions of Dimstel. I think on your first question is, from a high-level perspective, we've been on this path to increase the stability of our cash flows as we move forward. I think similar to what we were doing in global exports, We want to make our gas storage cash flows more stable over time. So this phase of expansion is basically 100% backstop by firm service, take-or-pay contracts. Our expectation is the next phase will be very similar.

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The only thing I'll add is that the... The storage that we bought, the working storage of 15 BCF before these expansions, even that wasn't used by us for optimization. Most of that was parking loans where we were being paid on injection and withdrawal. So we weren't really exposed to the commodity price there. And as those roll off, we will be looking to contract them longer term for that additional or the initial 15 BCF on the same basis that Burn Touch, the expansions would be contracted on.

speaker
Robert Cattellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Right, so you're not going to have a lot of optimization exposure other than what you need for operational flexibility?

speaker
Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

You bet.

speaker
Robert Cattellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Yeah, okay. And then assuming you come to an agreement on MVP, which seems likely, what are your expectations in terms of timing for a closing date? You know, it seems pretty straightforward, but there's a government shutdown, so I'm just wondering about the regulatory approvals.

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, great question, Rob. So look, in terms of regulatory approvals, we believe that any buyer would just need a FERC approval. And our understanding is despite the government shutdowns, there is a smaller staff at the FERC that's still trying to move these type of applications forward. And the type of timeline that we would be looking at is anywhere between 30 to 90 days for FERC approval. But that's the only approval that we anticipate needing to get the transaction closed. And obviously, any announcement obviously would be seen positively by the rating agencies, even if a potential close slipped into the next calendar year.

speaker
Robert Cattellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

And then last question for Blue. I just wanted maybe a more detailed update on the ARP initiatives, particularly District Safe in D.C. As you, you know, you're trying to get an extension and then have this separate program approved. I just wonder what the tone is like in this process. Are we likely to see a shorter extension of District Safe, or is there an appetite in the regulatory body for a longer-term program?

speaker
Blue [Last Name Unknown]
Presenter

Yeah, Rob, good question. A couple of things I'll note. So we've been working that particular, as you recall, we filed pipes three is where we started based on the timeline. Commission asked us to refile pipes three, which we did. They've granted us two extensions so far, and we filed for a third. There isn't anything in the conversation that leads us to believe that there's any apprehension to getting that process done. I think it's just a timing and a demand. They're also working diligently on our rate case, which we're hoping to have done by the end of the year. So I think it's a timing issue on the workload that they're trying to balance. I don't anticipate any particular challenge to that as we sit here today. You know, in their communications, they've been pretty transparent. Some of this very publicly, of course. So we're expecting, we asked for a three-year program under District Safe. The extensions they've approved have been in line. with the spend profile of Pipes 2 and District Safe. So all of those data points leads us to believe it's just a timing and workload effort. So we remain positive that there's a good outcome coming our way.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, thanks very much.

speaker
Aaron Swanson
Moderator

Thank you. Your next question is from Ben from Yemo.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Your line is now open.

speaker
Ben [Last Name Unknown]
Analyst, Yemo

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I'm just wondering, Beyond the assets you mentioned today with expansion opportunity, is there other assets that you can point to that utilization is ramping up quite a bit that you would start to think about or consider sanctioning expansions?

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think our actions in northeast BC have been very positive. I think we talked about how Our Townsend facility is approaching, has seen volume growth. And then North Pine, which we recently, not too long ago, had done a brownfield expansion, is also achieving record volumes. I think as you see more drilling in the BC part of the Montney, for sure you're going to see the need for more incremental facilities from us.

speaker
Randy Thune
President of Midstream

Dan, I would add to that. Our Hermann facility has a lot of activity, and I do think Hermann is a consolidator around that area, so that potentially could lead to a small expansion of Hermann.

speaker
Ben [Last Name Unknown]
Analyst, Yemo

Okay. It just sounds like from all your commentary today and all announcements, there's a long list of midstream opportunities you're working at. at favorable returns. Does that suggest then that your capital allocation exhibit that even balance between the two? That's a good picture of how it's going to look the next couple of years?

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think then the utility is going to get the majority of the capital just because the ongoing need there is very high. And there's a as we've talked many times about, a 20-year backlog of aging infrastructure that needs to get replaced with more modern infrastructure. We have, for sure, a very strong project hopper in midstream. The thing to remember is midstream projects tend to be smaller in size and take a couple years generally to build out. So the amount of capital we actually spend in each individual year

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

for midstream capital tends to be muted. Okay, got it.

speaker
Ben [Last Name Unknown]
Analyst, Yemo

And then my last one on the blight power gas plant in California, we've seen a couple of favorite recontracting outcomes years and years ahead of expiry. Is there opportunity for you, Altagas, then to look at crystallizing similar to that?

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I mean, look, from our standpoint, we just started a new contract that expires in 2027. I mean, we would always actively participate in those kind of discussions if they're constructive. with the end users. But there's obviously still a need for thermal power in California, and Blythe will continue to be a major contributor to meeting energy demand there. So if there's an opportunity for us, we would pursue extensions of the existing contract for sure.

speaker
Ben [Last Name Unknown]
Analyst, Yemo

Okay, so the base case, then, James, is more typical like 12, 18 months before. Let me ask, because we saw one that cut a 2030 extension. So four years ahead of time, which we haven't seen before. So it sounds like the base case is more that typical cycle.

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, right now our contract expires in 27. That is the base case. But like I said, those kind of discussions are always very fluid, especially with data center demand that's starting to emerge across the lower 48, right? So that could be something that initiates a discussion ahead of the timeline that we've experienced historically from a renewal standpoint.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Okay, Kai, thank you.

speaker
Aaron Swanson
Moderator

Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Once again, please press Store 1 should you wish to ask a question. And your next question is from Patrick Kenny from National Bank Financial. Your line is now open.

speaker
Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Thank you. Hey, good morning, guys. I guess just at a high level, I know you're still a month away or so from finalizing guidance for 2026. Just based on what you can see today, curious if you had any thoughts on a few of the headwinds and a few of the tailwinds that you expect will come into play or be sustained next year relative to this year.

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Pat, it's James here. Yeah, we're actually about five weeks away from getting our budget approved and rolling out 2026 guidance. We're obviously still working through trying to lock down where our CapEx is going to be. But in terms of what we're seeing as tailwinds right now is FX is a bit of a tailwind relative to last year. Obviously, we continue to see strength in volume exports at the global export platform, and we continue to see some strong rate-based growth, and we expect to have new rates in place in two of our four jurisdictions within the utility footprint. So those are some of the tailwinds that we see as well. But very premature for us to actually give you a range here. But we would expect a slight uptick in capex, just given some of the FIDs that we have here relative to where we were in 2024. Some of the headwinds and tailwinds are the things that I mentioned that we will incorporate into our guidance when we roll it out to the market.

speaker
Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Got it. And then, James, just on the leverage front, I know there's some noise in the trailing ratio, but as you look ahead to year-end, assuming you are able to close the MVP sale, are you still expecting to end the year with debt EBITDA at or below the 4.65 times? And then, I guess... as you look to bring some additional midstream growth into that secured bucket. You mentioned the uptick in CapEx next year, but should we expect the incremental growth to be more back-end weighted within the three-year funding plan, or do you still have some dry powder through 26?

speaker
James Harbalus
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Let me try to address the second part of your question first, and then I'll come back to the debt target metric. I think some of the comments that we made a little earlier on the conference call about our investment capacity growing is what's going to give us the ability to fund some of these additional FIDs and maintain our leverage metrics, right? Pipestone 2 is coming online, and you touched on the other major catalyst or increase to our investment capacity, and that's the completion of the MVP process. So I do think even though CapEx grows, our investment capacity will grow relative to 2025 to be able to fund it as a result of those two points. On the debt target, look, what we want to say is that the 465 is still something that we feel we're going to achieve at year end because of the completion of the MVP process. But we do want to remind people that, you know, the 465, we're going to fluctuate a little bit around that because we do have a seasonal business if you're looking at it on a trailing 12-month basis, right? And I'll give you the perfect example of that seasonality. If you look at Q3, we were clearly in injection season within our natural gas utilities where we're putting gas into storage to be able to service customers in the winter, right? So that basically takes up some working capital, and that's what pushed us up above the 4.65 times target at the end of Q3. And the other contributor was that we just had a higher FX rate relative to where the Q2 FX rate was. So those two would have us fluctuate a little bit because of seasonality, but we fully intend to get to that target by year end once we complete the MVP process.

speaker
Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay, that's great, Keller. Thanks for that. And then just for Vern, maybe with the federal budget coming out next week, wondering if there's anything you'll be looking for on the regulatory front in terms of perhaps repealing certain policies or legislation that might help you to firm up some of the FIDs here for your other midstream growth projects?

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think that over the next few years, we're in really good shape because all of our projects, we have the permits in hand to go ahead and build these things. I think longer term, what would be helpful for the industry as a whole would obviously be egress for both natural gas and crude oil. I think as everyone knows, drilling for natural gas in Western Canada is for LNG and then to provide liquids, condensate and LPGs, that can be used either in the oil sands or elsewhere. So anything that helps production grow in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin will be beneficial for us as we have... our strong position on maximizing netbacks for producers on the LPGs.

speaker
Vern Yu
President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, that's great. Thank you.

speaker
Aaron Swanson
Moderator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Please proceed with a closing remark.

speaker
Erin [Last Name Unknown]
Investor Relations

Great, thank you. Yeah, so before we conclude the call, we did want to highlight the reef construction video that was put on our website yesterday. The updated video is on our infrastructure landing page, and it provides some nice highlights of recent construction progress at reefs, so definitely worth checking out.

speaker
Erin [Last Name Unknown]
Investor Relations

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us this morning. We hope you have a great day.

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. The conference has now ended. Thank you all for joining in my all-disconnector lines.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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