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AltaGas Ltd.
3/6/2026
I'm Sylvie and I will be your conference operator today. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. If you have any difficulties hearing the conference, please press star then zero for operator assistance at any time. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. As a reminder, note that this conference call is being broadcast live on the internet and recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Erin Swanson Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Swanson.
Good morning. Thank you for joining Altagas' fourth quarter 2025 results conference call. This call is being webcast, and we encourage following along with the supporting slides that can be found on our website. Speakers this morning will be Vern Yu, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sean Brown, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We're also joined by Randy Toon, President of Midstream, Blue Jenkins, President of Utilities, and John Morrison, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. We will refer to our forward-looking information on today's call. This information is subject to certain risks and uncertainties as outlined in the forward-looking information disclosure on slide two in the presentation. As usual, prepared remarks will be followed by a question and answer session. I'll now turn the call over to Vern.
Thanks, Aaron. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our Q4 conference call. I'll start by introducing Sean Brown, who joined us in January as our new CFO. Sean has been in the energy business for more than 25 years as an executive and an investment banker. Sean's strong financial background adds to our existing bench strength at Altagas, and he will help drive the continued execution of our strategic priorities. Today we will review our Q4 and full-year financial results, we'll reaffirm our 2026 guidance, and update you on our progress of our strategic priorities. Our performance in 2025 reflects the strength of our people, assets, and relationships, which positions us well for continued success in 2026. I'm going to kick off my remarks by reviewing some of the highlights from 2025. including our financial performance and the execution of our strategic priorities. I'll then review our growth projects and our project backlog, talk about the importance of natural gas for long-term customer affordability, and close by reviewing the current LPG export market. Sean will then cover our financial results and outlook in more detail. Let's start on slide four. Our 2025 results were driven by strong performance in both midstream and utilities. We delivered normalized EBITDA close to the top of our guidance range, exceeding $1.86 billion for the year. Earnings per share came in at $2.23, which was in the upper half of our guidance range. We executed our strategic priorities by optimizing our asset base, delivering record global export volumes, record throughput at North Pine and Pipestone, along with active regulatory filings at our utilities. We continue to de-risk the business through long-term contracts and export market diversification in midstream, and extending regulatory approvals for the utility's asset modernization program. We strengthened our balance sheet, exiting the year at 4.7 times adjusted net debt to EBITDA, and saw our credit rating outlook move from negative to positive. We advanced key growth projects. Pipestone 2 came into service in December, and we saw great construction progress at Reef. Reef's positive FIDs on Reef Optimization 1, the Ripit Methanol Removal Project, Phases 1 and 2 of expanding the Dimmesdale Gas Storage Facility, and the Keweenaw Connector Pipeline in Michigan. These results translated into a 29% total shareholder return in 2025 and a five-year TSR CAGR of 22%, where we have meaningfully outperformed our peers. Turning to slide five, Pipestone 2 is complete and is operating close to full capacity. The project was delivered on time and on budget, further strengthening our midstream value chain. On slide six through eight, we highlight our construction progress at Reeves. Phase one is now 70% complete, which was in line with our plan. We now have all the LPG accumulators and bullets on site. All three LPG accumulators should be placed on their foundations this week. You can see a picture of the arrival of the two accumulators on slide eight. Yeti construction is accelerated and remains on plan. We have successfully installed eight of the 13 spans. The remaining sections will be put in place later this spring. And we've kicked off work on the loading platform. Phase one of the rail corridor and utility corridor have been finished. This includes the full rail yard and the rail offloading modules. OptiOne is also advancing on plan and is expected to be in service for mid-2027. Overburden removal has been completed, and blasting activities will start this month. OPTI-1 will add another 30,000 barrels a day of propane export capacity, which is higher than our original expectations. Slide 9 shows that the Ripit methanol removal project and the Dimmesdale gas storage expansions both remain on time and on budget. These new facilities will contribute to our 2027 growth outlook. Slide 10 highlights our midstream project hopper, where we continue to advance multiple growth projects, including a Townsend deproponizer, a Northeast BC liquids expansion focused on improving long-term rail logistics, progressing additional phases of reef, including the potential of adding ethane exports, given the strong demand from China, as well as a North Pine frac expansion and more gas processing with Pipestone 3. Let's turn to slide 11. We're set to start construction of the Q&A connector pipeline this spring. All the long lead items have been ordered, and the entire right-of-way has been secured. We remain very active with 1.7 billion of modernization programs across our four jurisdictions, which will improve the safety and reliability of our network. We're also advancing our data center opportunity set with multiple feed studies completed. And we've now started construction of the natural gas connections to feed phase one of a 24 megawatt facility in Maryland, which is expected to be completed by year end. Slide 12 highlights the importance of natural gas during today's energy affordability crisis for utility customers across North America. Natural gas is the most affordable and reliable heating source in the U.S. The cost of electricity for home heating is more than three times more expensive than natural gas across our jurisdictions. This cost advantage is only getting bigger. Recent electric bill increases are coming in at over a 10% per year, which is four times current inflation. This trend will continue as more and more investment is needed to replace America's outdated electrical grid. Natural gas is the only energy solution that is scalable, affordable, and reliable to meet growing North American energy demand. Public policy should prioritize cost-effective outcomes. by avoiding unnecessary electrification that increases customer bills and reduces energy reliability. We believe that policymakers should be incentivizing natural gas infrastructure for space heating across the country. Asian demand continues to grow, and it is expected to be up by nearly 25% by 2030. This is being fueled by new household demand in markets like India, and the continued growth at PDH facilities in China. In 2026 alone, we are expecting to see 300,000 barrels per day of increased propane demand due to Chinese PDH startups. Since the beginning of 2025, we've seen very strong demand for non-U.S. LPG supply with global trade sanctions. This has caused Chinese imports of U.S. propane to decline by more than 50% in 2025, and the market continues to pay a premium for non-U.S. propane. On the supply side, the local Canadian butane market is currently oversupplied due to certain facility outages. Both of these supply and demand factors are tailwinds for our 2026 outlook. The FEI forward curve has strengthened materially in 2026, as highlighted in the bottom right chart. We saw FEI move up with winter weather in Asia, then further up with the recent Saudi supply disruption, and even further up with the Iranian conflict. As a result, March FEI propane spreads are almost 50% higher than the start of the year, underscoring the severity of the Middle Eastern supply shock. Let's turn to slide 14. 2025 marked a step change in our export destinations, with 45% of our volume landing in China, where our market share has now increased to about 6% of China's imported propane. AltaGas now represents 5% of Canada's total national trade into Japan, South Korea, and China, amounting to about $2.5 billion in 2025. which we expect to double by 2030 with the startup of Reef and Optimization One, and the continued debunking at our existing export facilities. We're also proud to be investing in Asian economic activity, with $600 million invested in Japan, South Korea, and China over the last number of years to support the expansion of our global export business. This is in concert with very large investments that we've made with domestic manufacturers and engineering companies in Canada and the U.S. Finally, on slide 16, we're committed to our strategy of disciplined capital allocation. With approximately $5 billion of investment capacity over the next three years, we can fund $3.5 billion of growth while staying within our financial guardrails. Investment in our high-quality organic growth backlog supports long-term enterprise growth of 5% to 7% per year, which will generate meaningful and sustainable shareholder value creation. And with that, I'll now turn it over to Sean.
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