This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.
spk02: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'd like to welcome everyone to the Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. fiscal 2023 first quarter results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then the number two. If you have any difficulties hearing the conference, please press star zero for operator assistance at any time. As a reminder, this conference call is being broadcast live online and recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Dan Davio, President and CEO. Please go ahead, Mr. Davio.
spk07: Thank you, Operator, and thanks to everyone for joining us for today's call. As always, I'm joined by Don McFadden, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the overview of our first quarter fiscal 2023 results, both Don and I will be pleased to answer questions from analysts and institutional investors. Today's remarks are complementary to our earnings release, MD&A, and supplementary financials, copies of which have been made available for download on CDAR, or on the investor relations section of our website at cgf.com. Within our updates, certain reported information has been adjusted to exclude significant items in order to provide a transparent and comparative view of our operating performance. These adjusted items are non-IFRS financial measures. Please refer to our notice regarding forward-looking statements and the description of non-IFRS financial measures that appear in our investor presentation and also in our MD&A. As widely reported and known to anyone following our industry, financial conditions in our first fiscal quarter have been challenging, driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors that have impacted asset prices, market activity, and confidence amongst investors and corporates. Despite this, we continue to help our clients achieve their business and financial goals and manage risk. In addition to the more challenging backdrop, another headwind for this quarter's results was the impact of sharp declines in the market value of certain inventory and warrant positions earned in respect of our investment banking activities, which primarily impacted our Australian capital markets business and, to a lesser degree, our Canadian business. In our Australian business, the rapid deterioration in market values during the quarter translated into a significant decline in our fee-based share and warrant inventory values. On a net basis, this market downturn had a negative impact on revenue of about $20 million in our Australian capital markets business. The impact of market declines also had a negative impact on revenue in Canada as we recorded facilitation losses of about $11 million, offsetting our commission revenue and fee share inventory adjustments of about $7 million. All our inventories are actively managed and, as such, many positions were monetized during the quarter. So we believe that any downside risk associated with these types of holdings in future reporting periods has been reduced. While the market value of these positions moves on a quarter-to-quarter basis, I will note that the quarterly net P&L impact of these positions has historically been positive on average over our holding period. and the impact of these holdings on our overall revenue has not previously been material. Despite this, our platform performed well over the three-month period, giving us confidence in our ability to deliver solid financial results while exceeding our clients' expectations through the remainder of this downturn. Our ongoing efforts to increase reoccurring revenue contributions from our expanded wealth management business and growth contributions from capital markets advisory activities are helping to offset the impact of the abrupt decline in new issue activity. With that, I will turn to the financial highlights of our first fiscal quarter. Firmwind revenue for the three-month period was $328 million on an adjusted basis, down 37% when compared to the same period a year ago. Excluding significant items, pre-tax net income was $27.5 million, which translated to diluting earnings per share of 11 cents. Turning to expenses, firm-wide non-compensation expenses as a percentage of revenue were elevated at 31% for the fiscal quarter on an adjusted basis, primarily reflecting higher general and administrative expenses in connection with increased travel and promotional activities. These activities were targeted investments in our business development and talent retention efforts, which were concentrated in a short period of time following two years of COVID restrictions. We anticipate more normalized levels going forward. Adjusted compensation ratio for the quarter was slightly elevated at 60.4%, generally in line with historical rate. As we've said before, although our compensation ratio is prone to quarterly fluctuations, we expect it to remain within our targeted range for the full fiscal year, noting that compensation expense will align with revenue levels. Our business continues to be well capitalized, giving us financial flexibility to be opportunistic in this period of dislocation, while upholding our commitment to shareholder returns. Reflecting this confidence, our board of directors has approved a quarterly common share dividend of 8.5 cents. Turning to the performance of our operating businesses, I'll start with wealth management. Although below recent all-time highs, assets in our global wealth management business have remained resilient in light of this significant reversal in global markets. Our investment professionals in all geographies have maintained an unwavering focus on helping our clients navigate uncertainty and achieve their long-term goals. During the quarter, we experienced net inflows in all our business, bolstered by our acquisition of Hunter Southall Wealth, which closed at the end of May. At the end of the fiscal quarter, firm-wide client assets were $91 billion, down 4% year over year and 6% sequentially. primarily reflecting broad market declines in both equities and fixed income, which offset these net inflows. On a consolidated basis, this division earned revenue of $162 million and contributed adjusted pre-tax net income of $25 million for the three-month period. Revenue from our UK and Crown Dependencies business was flat year over year at $73 million, but increased by 7% when measured in local currency. We're having a great experience integrating our recent acquisition of Adam & Co. and PSW, and we are focused on creating additional value through synergies and our organic growth initiatives, which should contribute to margin strength. With the PSW closing midway through the quarter, revenue and net income associated with PSW also will be more wholly reflected in our next fiscal quarter. Revenue in our Canadian and Australian wealth businesses decreased by 30% and 8% respectively, largely due to the abrupt decline in new issue activity. Increase in interest rates in both Canada and the UK have positively impacted interest revenue. which increased by 140% year over year and will continue to contribute to margin strength going forward. Our focus on supporting investment advisors and their clients, especially through volatile markets, has supported our recruiting and retention efforts. In the last 18 months, we've added over $1.6 billion in recruited assets to our Canadian franchise. The number of advisors in our Australian business has also increased by 5% year over year. We are actively considering a range of opportunities to support long-term profitable growth in our wealth management businesses globally through new products and capabilities, as well as continued support for technology enhancements to keep up with the increasingly complex needs of our valued clients. Turn it to the performance of our capital markets business. Revenue in our global capital markets division was $164 million for the three-month period. down 49% year over year, largely due to the abrupt decline in new issue activity and losses in our inventory positions, which offset this revenue. Given the industry slowdown and the diversification away from higher risk growth assets, I am pleased with the performance of our teams who delivered for our clients and protected our strong market position amongst the league table leaders in each of our geographies. During the three-month period, we participated in 80 transactions to raise over $6 billion for corporate issuers. Investment banking revenue for our combined global capital markets business was down 91% year over year and 87% sequentially to $12 million. While we earned more in cash fees for our underwriting activities, These amounts reflect a markdown in connection with the impact of previously mentioned inventory positions. I will note that our Australian capital markets business had an active quarter, completing 29 deals to raise over a billion dollars for issuers. While we are disappointed that gains were offset by inventory markdowns, Supporting our clients through equity investment is an important part of doing business in this region. I'm very pleased to report that advisory revenue increased 9% year-over-year to $83 million. Our U.S. and U.K. businesses recorded year-over-year increases of 36% and 59% respectively. In the U.S., our mid-market TMT advisory team has ranked first for deal volume in both the fiscal quarter and calendar year to date. Earlier this week, we announced our acquisition of UK advisory firm Results International, which complements our previous investments to expand our advisory segment and will add domain expertise in the European healthcare and technology sectors, where we already have strong global capability in both advisory and ECM. We continue to be active globally and we feel good about the size and quality of our pipeline relative to the market. In advisory, although market-wide announcements and completions have slowed, we have good visibility into the next six months and we expect this segment to perform well throughout the fiscal year. Recently, we have seen some green shoots in ECM activity. but our expectation is that we will not see a meaningful recovery in new issue volumes until at least the third quarter of this fiscal year. Our trading businesses remain well positioned to respond to changes in the market backdrop, and we will continue to provide market-leading execution capabilities for our clients in all businesses and geographies. We expect that economic conditions will continue to tighten before they improve. and we will navigate more volatility and uncertainty alongside our clients. Historically, periods of market dislocation have created opportunities for us to differentiate ourselves and capture new market share. Heading into our second quarter, activity levels have been similar to Q1, although we will end this quarter with lower expenses and less exposure to market-driven declines in our inventories. In light of the current environment, we are managing our capital and expenses prudently to ensure the best use of our resources for continued balance sheet strength. Having said that, our long-term strategy does not change. We're committed to investing in our core capabilities, which have been proven to provide differentiated value for our clients through economic cycles. We will be opportunistic yet thoughtful in our deployment of capital as we position our business to emerge from this downturn in a stronger competitive position and accelerate long-term value creation for our shareholders. With that, Don and I will be pleased to take questions. Operator, can you please open the lines?
spk01: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session.
spk02: If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star 2.
spk01: Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Jeff Fenwick of Cormark.
spk02: Please go ahead.
spk00: Hi. Good morning, everyone. So, Dan, why don't we talk about capital markets first and just a few things. I think you made some commentary around in your intro there. With respect to Australia, I'm obviously taking some negative marks there that hit the top line. I think you mentioned that there was about 20 million of marks there in the quarters. Is that correct? I'm just trying to get a sense of what the actual sort of like business going on versus some of the marks that you had to take there.
spk05: Hi, Jeff. It's Don. Yes, I mean, the inventory revaluations during the quarter resulted in a $20 million impact on revenue. It's just not marks. It's actually crystallized sales at values that were lower than the March marks. So it shows up as a loss in the quarter or as a reduction in revenue during the quarter. So the total values of inventory declined significantly from March to June. So it's not just mark-to-market, it's actual sales at lower than the March values.
spk00: Okay, understood. And I think the comments there where you tried to close out as many as you could, so you're not suffering that going forward. What's the environment like in Australia now? I mean, it's obviously levered toward mining. Any comments there on the outlook?
spk07: Yeah, I mean, it's early to predict. I mean, base metals and golds took a hit in the quarter as well as, you know, some of the emerging economies got whacked with a strong U.S. dollar. So, you know, we're cautiously optimistic. This is their busy period. Their summer is our winter. Vice versa, I guess. Our summer is their winter. We just hosted a big diggers and dealers conference in Western Australia yesterday. you know, I think there's activity. I think it's premature for me to say, Hey, everything's back to normal, but that would be, that'd be too quick of a statement to make. I mean, we're optimistic over the next couple of quarters that it'll, it'll, it'll come back. But, um, you know, I think the worst of it was last quarter, but I'm not saying this quarter, everything's going to be rosy and back on, you know, historical $50 million a quarter run rate that that would be way too optimistic.
spk00: Yeah. And I guess, you know, I look at it in the past, but it was, uh, You used to do like $40 million a year in revenue sort of pre-COVID and then started doing more than that in a quarter and just trying to get a sense of – you built up that business.
spk07: Yeah, it ain't going to be that bad. I mean the business changed. We bought a big wealth business there. We materially expanded our footprint. We hired into our capital markets business. I think we're probably four – fourth on the league tables in Australia like that's not a place that we were three and four years ago as that business has evolved so the business is a bigger business than it used to be that being said so it's not you know 40 a year but it ain't 40 a quarter either right somewhere in between the two and I wish I can give you better guidance but it's primarily a new issue market so we don't have as much visibility in that market as we have in some of our others
spk00: And I guess, you know, if you look at the US, it was sort of the counterpoint to that. I mean, I think performed quite well in the quarters you highlighted. And I know advisories become such an important part of the business down there. You know, how's that environment looking? And I imagine there was probably some things that might have been in process through the quarter that helped you out. I mean, are you going to I imagine you're seeing more people press pause in the short term, or what's the environment?
spk07: Yeah, I mean, that's a fear. I don't think it's a reality yet. I think a pessimistic person would say, hey, when is M&A going to stop? But unlike our new issue business, we do have pretty good visibility on our M&A business. You just know the timetables associated with M&A. So if we're working on stuff now, that's revenue in six months. So we've got a pretty good pipeline, a pretty good visibility. I think we're, again, I keep on using this cautiously optimistic after a bad quarter, but we're cautiously optimistic that our M&A is pretty resilient at this stage. Ask me again in nine months or six months, but right now we feel pretty cautiously optimistic on that.
spk00: Okay. And then maybe one on wealth management, specifically with Canada specifically. obviously seeing the volatility just associated with the level of commission activity in the business there. Maybe give us a sense of how the advisors react to this environment. I think on the capital market side, we all understand the ups and downs and how that works with their compensation. I mean, what's the mood along the advisors with the sort of volatility they're seeing in terms of the revenue opportunity with their businesses?
spk07: Yeah, great question. I guess it depends on what kind of advisor. I mean, we've got You know, the majority of our advisors are pure wealth advisors. They earn commission fee and, you know, income that's relatively stable. In fact, if you look at our commission and fee line and our supplemental disclosure, you'll notice that our commission and fees actually went up in the quarter. What went down in the quarter was the new issue contribution in the wealth business, which we've always had, and quite frankly, at roughly $4 million. That's probably the lowest level I've seen in my career. So if you were an advisor that did a lot of new issue business, you were impacted materially. If you're an advisor that does a lot of wealth management and earns fees and net income, you probably were flat to marginally up in the quarter. So I guess it depends too.
spk00: Sure. And then maybe just a comment on the recruiting pipeline in Canada. I know you've – had success in that over the last 18 months. It's probably a bit of a challenging environment just given the volatility, but what's the outlook now?
spk07: It's about the same as it's always been. Maybe marginally better, which is kind of surprising because typically in down markets, advisors aren't anxious to uproot and move, typically. That being said, the same secular trends that we've seen for the last couple of years continue to apply. We continue to hire advisors. We've You know, another one will be joining us, you know, any day now. So, you know, that pipeline, I wouldn't say it's stronger or weaker than normal. I think it's just normal.
spk00: Okay, great. Thanks for that, Keller. I'll pass the line along.
spk07: Thanks, Jeff. Great questions.
spk02: Your next question comes from Stephen Boland of Raymond James. Please go ahead.
spk06: Thanks. One kind of numbers question. Maybe on the facilitation losses in Canada. I just want to understand that that is like liquidity that you're providing to institutional clients on a daily basis to help them out on positions. Is that the typical definition?
spk07: That is the typical definition of facilitation loss, yes. I would say our losses were concentrated in, you know, a smaller number of names, names, as you could imagine, Steve, you know, the business that you, you know, that you were all around, you're the box in. So, you know, I would, you know, I wouldn't say, Hey, we, you know, lost money with 200 clients on 500 names. We probably lost money with 20 clients on five names, you know, I'm making up those numbers, but directionally, it just to give you a little bit more cover on it.
spk06: Okay. And has there been any thought on, you know, bringing the capital down in that division? I mean, $11 million is pretty material, but has there been thought of actually just shutting a little bit or providing less capital at this point?
spk07: Yeah, I mean, the answer is no. That's the specific answer. But, again, if you think of the nature of the business we're in, Steve, we are a leading mid-market underwriter. We're not the biggest trader. BC, Telus, and Rogers were the biggest traders. They have a lot of mid-market names. We need to traffic in those names. That's not an option. Occasionally, you will take the odd hit in some of these small names. I've been doing this for over three decades now. This was a pretty bad quarter from that perspective.
spk06: Okay. Maybe just on the second in Canada, just in terms of advisory fees, you know, when markets tend to come down this sharp and maybe the outlook is, you know, overall is not great in terms of the economy and things like that. Have you seen changes in, you know, the pipeline in Canada in terms of M&A, where firms realize that they may not have access to capital and resources? you know, are actually opening up dialogue with, you know, competitors or complementary companies to do M&A?
spk07: Yeah, maybe. It's, you know, there's pros and cons of a volatile market on M&A. Obviously, the pros are the ones you alluded to. You know, changes the dynamics, changes access to capital, creates, you know, I don't want to call it desperation M&A, but, you know, M&A you have to do, so to speak. But on the other side of that, you've got increasing interest rates, you've got tightening capital, and volatility kills as well as it helps, right? Because it takes so long to get a deal done. Whenever one stock price has changed 30%, you've got to make sure you still have a deal. So I think it goes both ways. I think the net of the positives and the negatives, it's about the same. I mean, the environment's about the same. Obviously, we didn't have a ton of revenue in Canada in our M&A sector this quarter. I think that's just a timing issue as much as anything else. We just didn't have a lot of closures this quarter. I think the overall environment is, you know, historically where it's been.
spk06: Right. Okay. And then one kind of high level question, when you talk about your compensation ratio, you know, getting back to your target range. But when I look at your outlook in your MD&A, it's, you know, it's kind of dour. It's, you know, that, you know, threat of recession going up. So how do we, I mean, you kind of said cautiously optimistic, but, you know, the MD&A is kind of negative. So I'm trying to figure out what your thoughts are. Are things going to get worse or slowly better?
spk07: Yeah, fair question, Steve. You know, I'm confused as well. No, I don't think we ultimately know what's going to happen here with the market. Obviously, we've got – we're still in the – you know, we've had a little bit of a, you know, dead cat bounce in the summer. I don't think anyone thinks that that's going to continue on. You know, there is some optimism around, you know, later in the year, November, December, things getting much better, you know, post midterms, maybe post feds easing. So, you know, you know, give a prediction or give a timeframe, don't give both. But, you know, things will get better. I'm just not sure when. So maybe that's the optimism you're seeing in the numbers. Your specific question around compensation ratio, though, is we manage to that comp ratio. So obviously, in some of our jurisdictions, with some of our people, it will be a tough year. Our biggest, like any other firm like ours, our biggest expense is compensation, and most of that is variable. So we'd like to think we can manage within a pretty narrow set of compensation ratio parameters. So we wouldn't say that we expect our comp ratio to be in line with historical standards unless we were planning on managing to that.
spk06: Okay. That's all I have. Thanks very much, guys.
spk07: Thank you so much, and thanks for all your work.
spk02: Your next question comes from Rob Goss of Echelon. Please go ahead.
spk04: Good morning, Deb, and thank you for taking my questions.
spk08: Thank you.
spk04: First on the advisory side, could you perhaps talk to results both its UK and European franchise and any opportunities you see there in terms of cross-selling on your global platform?
spk07: Yeah, listen, as you know, our strategy has been and continues to go deeper in verticals that we're good at. It's the easiest way to compete in very competitive markets like the U.S. or the U.K., Results is a very good smaller firm that focuses on healthcare and technology, the two of the sectors that we globally focus on and coordinate on two of our most, well, our two most important sectors, I think it's fair to say at this stage. So the interaction not only will be useful from a domestic, UK domestic perspective, you know, adding on additional M&A capabilities in sectors we're already strong in in the UK, but more importantly, and what you've alluded to, is, you know, being able to, you know, win cross-border mandates. We tend to be pretty good at that. We're a small enough firm to be agile, big enough to be, you know, global-ish. So, yeah, there will be an immense amount of interaction between primarily our U.S. M&A practice and our U.K. M&A practice with results. We see those businesses interacting well, and we wouldn't have, you know, ventured into the U.K. M&A space through an acquisition like results unless our U.S. team was completely aligned and on side and, quite frankly, encouraging that.
spk04: Do you see yourself pursuing further advisory acquisitions and more broadly on the issue of acquisitions? We all see the public pains, but have the private market values corrected commensurately with the public or perhaps more deeply?
spk07: When you ask the private versus public question, and I'll answer your first question in a minute, are you talking about wealth or are you talking about capital markets or both?
spk04: I was putting it out very broadly, Stan.
spk07: Okay, I'll give a broad answer then. On further M&A, I mean, we're always looking, but when you're buying M&A boutiques, these aren't things that, oh, look, this is for sale. Let's buy it. Those guys seem great. There's a long relationship that goes into any of these things. You're talking to people sometimes for years, deciding whether this would be a great fit for your organization. So you know, we're not running around, you know, pounding the pavement, trying to find M&A targets and key verticals. It's almost needle haystack type stuff, maybe slightly better than that, maybe several needles haystack, but it's, you know, you've got to find the right cultural fit. These aren't huge acquisitions we're doing either, as you know, but they're important, they're strategic, and they've clearly changed the dynamic of our revenue picture in our capital markets business. And you see that specifically in this quarter with the relatively bigger uptick in M&A. So that's gone on. Have we seen a change in valuations? I don't think we're that active in the market to really be able to say that there's been a shift in valuations. It's not like we're looking at 22 targets and looking at the pricing of those targets. I suspect pricing will come down, but, you know, you say that and then all of a sudden someone gets sold at a 60% premium to market in the public markets or, you know, in the U.S. or, you know, in the U.K. Well, so who knows? Public pricing clearly has come down. That's obvious. But, you know, premiums go up. So are valuation matrices really changing? I'm not so sure, but I'm not sure I have enough data points to answer that really intelligently.
spk04: Very good. I did like your reference to Fed's easing. Something to look forward to. It was, yes. That would be it for me, so best of luck.
spk06: Sorry, what was that? I missed that.
spk02: Your next question comes from Rasib Banji of TD Securities. Please go ahead. Morning. Thank you.
spk03: If I can continue on the acquisitions, more on the wealth management segment. I think there was some commentary last quarter on some inorganic growth opportunities on the Canadian wealth platform that you were working on. Is there any update that you can give this quarter or is this a longer process for down the road?
spk07: Yeah, I mean, I think we did reference again this quarter that we're looking at alternative ways and other ways of growing our Canadian wealth business. We've got a huge platform here. We think there's lots of creative ways to grow it. We continue to examine opportunities. Some of them go sideways, some of them go up, some of them go down. Volatile markets don't help. But, yeah, no, we continue to explore ways to grow our Canadian wealth platform for sure. I've got nothing to announce today and maybe nothing to announce in the next three months, but, you know, we continue to explore it. It is a focused area of growth and an area that we will commit more capital to for sure.
spk03: Makes sense. And then continuing on the wealth management side, there was some commentary in the press release about net inflows for the Canadian and UK businesses. I'm just wondering if you can provide a number or how mature NetInflux has been for these two businesses. Relative to previous quarters, are they still holding in well or is there some softness that you're seeing?
spk05: Hi, it's Don. Yeah, we don't provide that level of granularity in our AUA or AUM type numbers, but in the We have seen positive net inflows, and I think it's consistent with what we've been seeing over the course of the last year. It hasn't really increased or decreased. It's just steadily on the positive side.
spk03: Just my last question, also on wealth management. The increased revenue line item looks like it's moving in step with rising interest rates, and then we've had a few more interest rate hikes after the quarter, and then there are expectations for further rate hikes. Would it be fair to say that there's more upside towards this line item? I think it came at $10 million this quarter.
spk07: Yeah, I think it'd be a fair assumption to make that as interest rates go up in our wealth side of our business, we earn more money. You know, the spreads widen and we earn more money. So, again, in our supplemental disclosure, you'll notice that our interest income in our global wealth business is probably at record quarterly highs, even at these rates. So clearly, and that's because our assets have grown so materially from where they were two and three and four years ago. And therefore, our cash balances have grown, margin requirements have grown, everything has grown. So yeah, I think we had about $10 million in net interest income in our wealth business this last quarter. That number will continue to increase if interest rates continue to go up.
spk03: Those are all my questions. Thank you.
spk07: Great, great questions, and thanks for joining.
spk02: Ladies and gentlemen, there are no other questions from the phone lines. This will conclude your conference call for today. We would like to thank everyone for participating and ask you to please disconnect your lines.
Disclaimer