Conifex Timber Inc.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Conifx Timber Inc. Q3 2022 Results Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Ken Shields. Please go ahead.

Well, thank you very much, Paul, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our call covering our Q3 results for 2022. CFO Winnie Tang is next to me here today and available to respond to questions that analysts and shareholders may have following them prepare their marks. Let's quickly deal with the housekeeping item. We will be making forward-looking statements and references to non-IFRS measures, and therefore call your attention to the complete warning statement set out on pages 1 and 2 of the NDA that we released earlier today. In Q3, we are pleased to report net income of $0.02 per share and EBITDA of $4.2 million was achieved. Our results for the most recent quarter were aided by a $5.7 million reversal of excess duty deposits paid in prior periods, and of course the reversal result was from subsequent imposition of lower deposit rates. On the other hand, our results were held back by losses incurred at a power plant, which was idled in Q3, while repairs were made to manufacture defects in our turbine. Our bottom line was also held back by ship reductions and curtailments at our sawmill complex. At our sawmill, normal two-shift operations resumed on October 24. As I look at our Q3 results, as I see it, the non-returning items, namely the duties offset by the other two factors, they had an equal and offsetting effect. So our normal results would have indicated a slight profit based on the numbers that I've So turning to the outlook for Q4, of course, we expect benchmark SPF lumber prices to be weaker than they were in Q3, and I've observed that most public lumber companies are guiding analysts to inspect a sequential decline in EBITDA and net income in the closing quarter of the current calendar year. In our case, if benchmark SPF prices remain at or near their recent levels, we expect our Q4 results will be very similar to our Q3 results. And this is because recent discussions with our insurance adjusters have been highly encouraging, and based on these discussions, we expect to record business interruption insurance proceeds in Q4 in an amount that is expected to more than offset any potential income losses that may be incurred at our sawmill complex. So I think this backdrop, our full year EBITDA net income should come in within 10% of the record levels we achieved in 2021. As at September 30th, our potential refundable duties on deposits are mounted to 30.6 million US, which translates into a dollar Canadian per Conifax share based on the 40 million shares we have outstanding at quarter end. And while we appreciate that the legitimate timing of a full or partial refund is highly uncertain, our network will improve greatly when the trade dispute is eventually settled and cash refunds show up in our bank account. We are not aware of any other publicly traded lumber producer with potential duties refunds representing over 60% of their equity market capitalization. I'd now like to talk about fiber in DC. And as many of you will have heard on our last call in July, the chief forester in British Columbia issued a public discussion paper, and at the same time requested feedback from us and other licensees regarding the merits and demerits associated with future harvest levels he may establish for the McKinsey timber supply area, which is the part of the province where we source all our fiber requirements. To this end, we met with the chief forester in October and came away feeling confident that good quality, solid supply in our operating region can be sustained at more than double our present annual requirements, and all this is illustrated in slide 9 in the death we distribute an hour or so ago. We also feel confident that when the chief forester's final report is released, likely before the end of the year, we will transition to a green timber supply and no longer be mandated to source an important portion of our harvest from stands dominated by uneconomic pulpwood and bioenergy fiber components. We trust that the Chief Forest's final report will also include recommendations to ensure that the supply is available to sustain lumber production for decades to come in the ultra forestry dependent community of McKinsey. A topic we tabled at the meeting was for the ministry to incorporate employment and community sustainability considerations in decisions impacting fiber sourcing locations, saw log quality, and log cost affordability in the McKinsey timber supply area. We were pleased to have had an opportunity to present our views to ministry officials, which, if accepted and implemented, will help restore trust and confidence in the ministry's oversight of the board, Dr. McKinsey. I know many of you on this call analyze future supply-demand balances in lumber when compiling your forecast for future STF lumber pricing. I've seen many thoughtful analyses about how timber supply will contract as the annual harvest in BC due to beetle damage, government policy decisions such as restricting the harvest in all those stands, emerging species at risk protection initiatives, First Nations reconciliation activity, and wildfires. However, the important role BC timber sale plays supplying fiber to the BC forest sector is infrequently mentioned. Many of you would be aware that BC timber sale is responsible for managing the harvesting of approximately 20% of the timber available from British Columbia's timberlands. In the NVNA, we released exactly four quarters ago, we disclosed that there was an 80% shortfall in BC timber sale auction volume in the Prince George and McKinsey TSAs. Since then, there have been no new auctions in the Prince George timber supply area, which as many of you know is the largest timber supply area in the province, nor have there been any auctions at all in the two timber supply areas to the north and McKinsey. The ministry's lack of performance accountability at BC timber sale, in our opinion, is the single biggest reason the saw log harvest in the northern interior region of BC declined 20% in the first nine months of 2022, and why numerous shift procurement and other shift reductions were announced at several interior BC saw mills and pulp mills. As we see at BCPS auction performances showing little if any sign of improvement, we therefore believe that saw log supply in BC may be even more restrictive than most knowledgeable industry observers have been incorporating in their supply demand models for lumber. And against this backdrop, we suspect that fiber constraints may be underestimated and that consensus SPF price forecast for 2023 may prove to be conservative. So having reviewed these key industry developments, I wish to take a few minutes now to explain four initiatives that we are actively pursuing to position PONFX for success in 2023. First of all, we built up log inventories to ensure that we are not forced to curtail operations due to the saw log supply shortages. You may note that we had $25 million invested in saw log inventories at the end of Q3, and this represents what we would view as an industry leading three months saw log supply. We plan to maintain inventories at this robust level at least through to the March 2023 spring breakup period. This log inventory buildup is first of all a testament to the mutually beneficial relationships we've established with local First Nations partners, but it's also an indication of how collaboratively and effectively local forest ministry officials and the PONFX fiber procurement team work together to ensure that harvest permits are approved on an economy basis and that both employment and local government tax receipts are sustained in McKinsey. The second initiative we have underway is that we are well advanced transitioning to green saw log stands and accordingly have spent considerable sums developing roads, bridges, camps and other support infrastructure so we can access green stands in new operating areas. The third initiative we've completed some key improvements to our saw line and finishing line for the sawmill complex both designed to improve uptime performance on lumber recovery and against this background we expect our task costs of producing lumber will be lower in 2023 than in 2022. Fourth and finally we're lining up customers for the Richard Wade outcomes we expect to have available from both us and the green log die. We've got people in Japan today actually that are hard at work rebuilding our Japanese customer base to allow us to do shipments of duty free premium priced jig rate lumber in 2023 and beyond. In summary, successful execution of our transition to a green log diet reduces sawmill conversion costs, improves lumber recovery, provides richer rate outcomes and boosts average lumber selling price realizations. These benefits will enable us to migrate to a lower and more enviable ranking on the lumber industry cost curve. Thereby positioning us to sustain capacity operations over an even wider range of commodity lumber prices. I would now like to update you on another step in our journey in furtherance of our objective to develop the most economically viable and environmentally sustainable integrated software processing operations in

the interior

region of BC. As described on page three of the NVNA we just released, we're examining the feasibility of developing data center hosting activities in northern BC that would consume the surplus power that BC Hydro expects to have available through the year 2030 and beyond. In furtherance of this objective, we are pleased to announce that we will be hosting a new customer at our cloud site in Lackenzie. The customer is Greenwich Generation Holdings, which is a NASDAQ listed public company and it plans to locate its servers that are sited in Lackenzie later this month. It's a company that presently operates over 25,000 servers at sites in New York State and South Carolina. Turning to our balance sheet, you'll see that our overall debt was $57.8 million at the end of Q3, mainly represented by our power loan and no amounts were drawn against our revolving credit facility. And when we deduct cash balances, we end up Q3 with net debt of approximately $29 million and a net debt to cap ratio of approximately 17%. Our solid financial position, $36 million in liquidity and power-fired cash flow give us confidence in our ability to ensure a lengthy period of reach under prices should this happen to occur. Turning to capital allocation, at our August board meeting, our board of directors approved reinstatement of a normal course issuer bid, encouraging us to repurchase and cancel approximately 10% of our public flow, which works out to 2.46 million shares. We purchased 194,000 shares in September prior to entering our blackout period, and we'll be back in the market in a few days once the blackout period has lapsed. We note that our shares presently trade at an approximate 55% discount to our book value per share, which is a much steeper discount than presently recorded certain other public lumber companies. The reinstatement of our normal course issuer bid is underpinned by our belief that the trading price of our shares continues to reflect zero value for our harvest payments and our sum of our parts. Summing up our notes, we believe that Pontifacts is well positioned, but that strong safety culture, an unparalleled degree of self-sufficiency, near-term opportunities to improve product mixing revenue, industry-leading power generation assets, a strong balance sheet, and exciting future potential, hosting customers wishing to access these high-growth, abundant, affordable surplus student power. We thank you for taking the time today to learn more about Pontifacts. Winnie and I would be very pleased to respond to any questions you may have, and so I'll now turn the meeting back to Paul, our operator.

Thank you, Mr. Shields. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question, please press star 1 on the device's keypad. When prompted by the system, please clearly state your name to register your question. There will be a brief pause while the participants register for questions. We thank you for your patience. Thank

you. The first

question is from Hamir Patel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, good afternoon. Ken, given some of the issues with the BC Timber Sales that you were highlighting, just how much capacity do you think might come out of BC next year, just given the pine beetle and old growth plans of the government? Well, Hamir, we have our hands full keeping track of what's going on in the McKinsey Timber supply area, which I think many of you are aware covers the landmass that's as big as the states of Vermont and New Hampshire combined. But I can tell you that the Prince George Timber Supply Area is located just to the south of us. It's the largest timber supply area in the province. And the latest information that I have on the TSA is that licensees early in Q3 began working on the basis that their harvest was being reduced by something like 19%. In October of this year, last month, the harvest level in the TSA was further reduced by 14%. And then, as I mentioned earlier, in that TSA, we're not aware of, there's always a chance I missed the odd sale, but we're not aware that there's been any BCPS timber sales. So, Hamir, there's an example of a 33%, a 14%, and as much as another 20% reduction. So it's a very significant down kick. In the first nine months of this year, I think the interior BC harvest was down .7% or something like that, almost 20%. And I don't expect that year over year, it'll decrease to I think anytime soon. Yeah, fair enough. Thanks, Ken. That's helpful. And just a final question I have for Winnie. Could you speak to how we should think about capbacks in 2023?

So we're still in the process of finalizing our 2023 capital and business plan. I will say, though, we will likely be guided by our amortization charge, and we expect it should be in line with our annual amortization charge.

Okay, fair enough. That's all I had. I'll get back into the queue.

All right. Thank you.

Thank you. Once again, please press star one on the device's keypad if you have a question. The next question is from RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks very much. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. I'm curious on what happened up in McKinsey with Stumpage October 1st. What do you expect January 1st and the balance of 23? Stumpage and McKinsey, Paul, it's very complicated, and it's something that if you wish to discuss offline, I'm very willing to do so. But I wanted to point out that we have two distinct logging seasons in McKinsey. In the winter logging season, we harvest wood that is close to our sawmill complex. All the wood is delivered by truck. So it's a low-cost region, and that triggers pretty high stumpage. In the summer months, in the summer logging season when the Williston Reservoir is free, we operate from way more remote locations and higher-cost locations. You know, we run camps. We've got long delivery distances to get the work from the north end of the reservoir down to our site. So that in a year when stumpage did not change, let's assume that the BC government's stumpage rate was constant throughout the year, we'd have much higher stumpage on the winter logging season than the summer logging season. So what happened to us this year is that as we got into Q3, our stumpage bill didn't change very much, but we incurred a lot more cash costs in harvesting and delivery. And so when we get into logging season, we think that there won't be much change because stumpage rates are coming down but we've got fewer cost allowances which will trigger a higher stumpage rate. So I can back that background. Our stumpage rates have been pretty flat throughout the year, but our log costs weren't. They were a bit higher in the summer months and they were lower in the winter months. So as I said, it's a complicated topic, but that's what happened to us in the county. Okay, then given that overall BC stumpage is expected to go down in 23 days, does that lumber prices track down with it? Well, Paul, I really don't because as I said earlier, if there was a precipitous decline in residential construction activity, both for new and and are in the US, I suppose they could go back. Let me ask you this question. You know, some of the companies have reported walking breakdowns to net realizable value. One company reported $90 million, another couple reported $35 million, and one other reported about $25 million in Canadian. So those inventory breakdowns are very high relative to what the alternative is of setting some else down. So we think that some companies in BC would be pretty poised to take down the lumber prices slide from here because it's so they'll want to continue utilizing the cash flow from their low cost supply region and subsidize the ongoing production in the heightened production from the D. We continue to believe that the fight and fiber constraints in will not lead to an over supplied market on a sustainable base. Okay, and then just flipping over to the power side, what's the status of the generation right now? What do you expect for

23? Yes, so we're still actually in the process of working with the original manufacturer on repairs to defects on the turbine. We are expecting the power plant to come back online in around January 2023. And we look forward to that as that's one of our peak times for generating revenues because time delivery factor.

So at the end of the day, do you expect that 23 revenues to be up over 23 revenues given the downtown of the experience?

Yes, I would say that the revenue uptake in revenues as a result of the power plant contribution. We will, however, we are expecting to see some net earnings impact from this interruption claim on the power plant in 2022.

Okay, I didn't need to forget and I'm getting clinked there. But and I just maybe cannot, you mentioned that dollar share is in duties. How do we sell this at this point? What's your current thinking? Well, you know, I'd like to tell you that I had two and a half hour dinner last night with a lumber tray expert and that we identified a path forward. But I can't say that. It looks like there continues to be no incentives for the US coalition to want to show up at the bargaining table. So that's an settling element in the potential for a trade settlement. But on the other hand, duty rates came down this year, as you well know. And later this year, we expect another announcement about preliminary duty rates. And there's powerful evidence that the duties will be reduced. So when I think about the position of a US lumber coalition member that has been massive part of duty deposits filled out, and if they want to share that, that part's unlikely to be increasing very much, you know, 12 months or so from now. So I think that there will be a potential incentive for the US to go up at the bargaining table in the next 12 or 14 months. Okay. And what's your estimation of the size of the massive part? The last number of fall either was 9.4 billion. And that's you, that's right. Yeah. All right. Maybe some I'll shake out once we get after an evening 10. Thanks very much, Dr. Lackland. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I will return to call back to Mr. Shields. Okay.

Well, thank you, Paul. Whitney and I always enjoy our discussions. With all of you on the line, thank you for your interest in Carnifex. And we look forward to speaking to you again early in 2023 with another quarter of black ink on our bottom line. So all the best. Thank you.

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at time. And we thank you for your participation.