Cogeco Inc.

Good day and welcome to the Cogeco, Inc. and Cogeco Communications, Inc. Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Patrice Ouimet, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Cogeco, Inc. and Cogeco Communications, Inc. Please go ahead, Mr. Ouimet.

Thank you. So good morning, everybody, and welcome to this fourth quarter conference call, which Philippe and I will be presenting. Before we begin the call, as usual, I'd like to remind listeners that the call is subject to forward-looking statements, which can be found in the press releases issued yesterday. So I'll turn the call over now to Philippe. Thank you, Patrice, and good morning.

Thank you all for joining this call. While fiscal 23 was a year in which we made significant progress in strengthening our core foundation and delivering on our primary growth factors, we did fall short of the financial guidelines provided. Headwinds facing the U.S. operations over the course of fiscal year offset the solid growth we experienced within our Canadian business on both revenue and EBITDA. That said, a number of measures were implemented in fiscal 23 to help mitigate the challenges we currently face at BreezeLine. These initiatives along with investments made to prepare for the launch of wireless services within our US footprint, aim not only to improve our efficiency, but also to increase our addressable market, strengthen our product mix, and improve our customer retention and satisfaction. As for our fourth quarter, our consolidated results were resilient, driven by an increase in overall internet subscribers, and average revenue per users, which offset challenges brought on by inflation, increased competition, and global economic uncertainty. During the quarter, we demonstrated once again our intense focus on balancing subscriber growth with financial performance. In Canada, Cogeco Connection performed very well in Q4, with strong internet subscriber addition, as well as an increase in revenue per customer. In the U.S., while BreezeLine continued to face headwinds from the macroeconomic and nationwide competitive environment, its revenue per customer, adjusted EBITDA, and EBITDA margin increase in the quarter, reflecting a better product mix, stemming from its internet-led strategy, cost efficiency initiatives, and the acquisition of higher price point customers, which help offset customer losses at lower price points due to increased competition. As a group, we continue to execute on our strategic growth priorities. In both Canada and the U.S., we continue to see the financial benefits from our Fibre to the Home network expansion programs, which contributed to new internet subscribers in both markets. Overall, through these network expansion programs, we've added close to 124,000 homes passed over the last fiscal. If we include those added in fiscal 22, this brings us to 196,000 additional homes passed, representing a 7% growth of our network over the last two years. Many of these expansions were facilitated through government subsidy programs aimed at reducing the urban-rural digital divide. It allowed us to expand our fiber network in demographically and competitively attractive areas where we continue to target very healthy penetration rates. We announced in October the completion of the rural network expansion in Quebec, where we expanded services to 180 municipalities through the Quebec and federal government subsidized high-speed internet network expansion program. Meanwhile, in Ontario, we are pursuing our extension activities and preparing for the construction phase of additional projects with funding support from the Ontario and federal governments. In the US, we expanded to adjacent communities in New Hampshire and Virginia. The latter included some unserved homes and businesses under the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund program administered by the FCC. We continue to look forward to the launch of the broadband equity access and deployment funding program in the U.S., called DEED, which we intend to participate in. Under this program, each state will run its own process of allocating funds for rural fiber expansions. Within our traditional markets, we continue to position ourselves for future organic growth through our high-quality digital product offerings, distinctive and local customer service, reliable and evolving high-speed network, and technology advantage. During the year, we also double the network capacity servicing Ohio. in line with our acquisition integration strategy to drive higher revenue per customer over time in that market. In Canada, we are taking a multi-brand approach to serve new demographics and customer segments. During the last year, we expanded our service offering to include a digital-only experience for a younger generation of residential customers through the acquisition of the Oxio brand. We have continued to invest to support the high growth of Oxio and have been pleased with its performance to date. As it relates to other M&As, we continue to pursue growth by evaluating complementary businesses that will expand our footprint geographically and broaden our capabilities and service offerings as we have done for Oxio. However, we do not expect to undertake any large acquisitions in the near future as we focus on executing our other growth initiatives. In terms of mobile developments, in Canada, we remain in MVNO access negotiations. But, as you will understand, for competitive reasons, we cannot provide any further details on these negotiations. We will reiterate, however, that securing satisfactory wholesale rate for access to incumbent wireless networks will be critical to the viability and long-term success of our mobile entry. We are registered as a qualified bidder in the 3800 MHz spectrum option. While we are not allowed to discuss the option, we will remind investors that our total spectrum coverage to approximately 4 million people in the Quebec City to Windsor corridor encompasses 95% of our Canadian high-speed network footprint. In total, we have now acquired approximately 400 million worth of spectrum across several frequency bands that are considered optimal for 5G wireless services. In terms of mobile in the US, We are preparing the groundwork to enter the U.S. wireless market through commercial MVNO arrangements in the states we serve. We expect to be able to provide an update on our mobile progress in both countries in future quarters. Though I'll note that if we are successful in MVNO negotiation, we don't anticipate a material rollout of our Canadian MVNO operations in the short term. as we have some preparation work remaining to complete. Finally, we pursue our sustainability agenda through the implementation of various initiatives that are aligned to the best environmental, social and governance or ESG practices. Additionally, we continue to be recognized by leading voices in ESG commitments and disclosures. Over the past year, we've ranked for a fourth consecutive year among the world's 100 most sustainable corporations, according to Corporate Knights, for setting a standard in sustainable growth leadership. For the second consecutive year, we were included in the prestigious sustainability yearbook presented by SNP Global, for its excellence in implementing BESS ESG business practices. And our governance practices were recognized by the Globe and Mail board games as among the best within family-controlled dual-class public corporation. I will now review our operational results and begin with our Canadian operations. We continued to connect more homes in unserved and underserved communities in Quebec and Ontario, often with the help of government partnerships where we added another 7,300 homes passed this quarter, bringing the total to more than 96,000 new homes passed over the last two fiscal years. Our Canadian team achieved a 15-year record this quarter with the addition of 14,000 internet customers thanks to their effective sales and marketing strategies, entry in newly served areas, the contribution from Oxio, and their unrelenting focus on customer experience while continuing to grow ARPU year over year. As for our U.S. operations, in Q4, our fiber network expansion covered nearly 16,000 new homes past, bringing the total to more than 99,000 new homes past over the past two fiscal years, further expanding our total addressable footprint. The markets remain challenging in Q4, notably for customers at lower speeds and price points due to the macroeconomic environment and competitive intensity. However, the product mix and customer tenure continue to improve with a greater proportion of new connections taking faster internet feeds and therefore driving a higher average revenue per unit and gross margins. We reported approximately 9,000 internet net losses, of which 6,000 were in Ohio. which is a bit higher than the two prior quarters and below our expectations. During the quarter, we continue to densify the network and work to bring our internet customer base in Ohio to growth as we focus on gaining greater brand awareness. On that front, we have made solid progress, and this is being reflected in improving net promoter scores. Outside Ohio, internet customer net losses were essentially in line with last quarter, which were driven by aggressive offers by competitors in response to FWA competition they are facing in other areas. Now for CogicoMedia, while we continue to face Edwin from a difficult radio advertising market industry-wide, we are happy to report modest year-on-year growth in revenue this quarter. With our stations remaining at the top of the ratings and 98.5 Montreal being the most listened to station in all of Canada, we believe we are well-positioned to face the industry's challenges going forward. In the meantime, we continue to expand our multi-platform audio content options with more digital ad tech solutions social media-oriented formats, and state-of-the-art studio facilities. Now, let me turn the call over to Patrice, who will provide more details on our financial performance for the quarter.

Thank you, Philippe. I'll start by mentioning that the growth rates I'll be providing are in constant currency, unless otherwise noted. In Canada, Cogeco Connections' revenue was up 4.1% in Q4, resulting mainly from higher internet service customer base, higher revenue per customer, and the OXIO acquisition. EBITDA declined by 0.9%, as we had expected, due to revenue growth being more than offset by higher OXs to drive and support customer growth, including at OXIO, which is in a high growth phase of development. Last year's operating expenses were also lower due to certain year-end adjustments. In the U.S., BreezeLine's revenue was down 2.5% in constant currency, mainly driven by a lower Internet customer base over the past year and an overall decline in video and phone customers, partially offset by higher revenue per user as customers subscribe to increasingly fast Internet speeds. However, while revenue declined, we delivered higher gross profit from a more attractive product mix, resulting from more Internet within our revenue mix, and our integration of easy-to-use, self-install equipment. Combined with cost reduction initiatives, this drove EBITDA growth of 2.2%. Turning to our consolidated numbers, at the consolidated level, revenue grew by 0.8%, while our adjusted EBITDA remained relatively stable. As reported, Capital intensity was 23.8% compared to 30.8% last year due to the timing of certain initiatives and the completion of several rural network expansion projects in Quebec. Including those network expansions, capital intensity was 19.3%. Free cash flow increased to $88.5 million from $34.5 in constant currency. Excluding network extensions, free cash flow increased by 25.5% in constant currency, driven primarily by lower capex. At the end of the quarter, our net debt to EBITDA ratio was 3.3 times versus 3.4 at the end of Q3. And we are pleased to announce that our board of directors has increased the dividend by 10.1% to 85.4 cents per share. This increase represents our 10th consecutive annual dividend increase of 10% or more. We anticipate dividends to represent a payout ratio of about 40% of free cash flow in the upcoming fiscal year, or 28% when excluding network expansions. Turning to Cogico Inc., revenue and constant currency increased by 1%, while EBITDA declined by 0.6% as a result of Cogico Communications' performance. The media operations revenue increased by 8.3% as the local radio advertising market showed a modest year-over-year improvement, further aided by positive contributions from digital advertising revenue. A dividend of 85.4 cents per share was declared for the quarter, representing a 16.8% increase over the prior year. This increase now brings the dividend of Cogico to parity with the dividend paid at Cogico Communications. and it completes a process we have undertaken to close the gap between the two dividends over a three-year period. Now let's discuss Cogico Communications' financial guidelines for the upcoming fiscal year 2024. On a constant currency and consolidated basis, Cogico Communications expects revenue and adjusted EBITDA to remain stable versus last year. Note that the guidelines reflect an estimated one percentage point negative impact on adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year, related to additional preparation costs to offer mobility services in both countries. At Cogico Connection, we expect low single-digit growth in revenue in EBITDA, reflecting stability in our traditional operation, growth in our newly built expansion areas in Quebec and Ontario, and success in attracting new customers to our Oxio brand. We do anticipate some EBITDA margin compression in Canada, partially due to incorporating a full year of results from Axio. At BreezeLine, in constant currency, we expect low single-digit declines in revenue and low single-digit EBITDA growth, with revenue decline reflecting an ongoing competitive landscape for subscriber volume, offset by EBITDA margin expansion due to an improving mix of higher revenue customer driven by an internet-first strategy, growth in our network expansion programs, and cost optimization. As it relates to corporate costs, we expect these to increase in fiscal 24, reflecting the increase in mobility preparation costs that I noted. Turning to CapEx, we are expecting to spend between $700 and $775 million in the coming year, including 140 to 190 million in growth-oriented network expansions, resulting in a capital intensity of between 24% and 26%, or 18% to 20% excluding network expansion projects. Free cash flow is expected to decline between 5% and 15%, and excluding network expansion projects The free cash flow is also expected to decline between 5% and 15%, as our network expansion investments are expected to be similar to last year. The declines are being driven by an estimated 10 percentage point negative impact from additional mobility investments, which do not include potential spectrum acquisitions. As it relates to the first quarter, we currently expect revenue to decline in the low to mid single digits in constant currency, and EBITDA margin to be slightly lower than in Q1 of last year. Capital intensity is expected to be modestly above the Q1 of last year. At Cogico Connection, in Q1, we expect revenue growth in the low single digits. EBITDA is anticipated to decline also in the low to mid-single digits, on higher operating expenses to drive and support customer growth, and with EBITDA growth coming mainly in the back half of the year. At BreezeLine, in Q1, revenue is anticipated to decline in the mid-single digits, reflecting the competitive environment and video court cuts, as well as the timing of price increases last year, which creates a tough comparison for that particular quarter. EBITDA is also expected to be lower year over year in the mid single digits due to the anticipated revenue decline and partly offset by cost reduction initiatives implemented in the second half of 2023. EBITDA is expected to grow in the following quarters. Below the EBITDA line, at the consolidated level, we expect acquisition, integration, and restructuring to be at about half of what we recorded in Q4. And in terms of CapEx, we expect it to be approximately flat versus Q1 of last year, reflecting ongoing strategic growth investments, including network expansions and preparations for mobility in Canada and the U.S. At COGECO Inc., we have issued the same financial guidelines as COGECO Communications. Also, following the year-end in September, we have refinanced a U.S. senior secured Terminal B facility through the issuance of a new one for $775 million. That's a seven-year maturity. And also a $475 million five-year maturity farm credit Terminal B. Those are U.S. dollars that I'm quoting. We have also increased the credit limit on our senior secured revolving facility from $150 million to $250 million and extended the maturity date to 2028. The debt proceeds were used to reimburse the existing Tranche 1 of the senior secured Terminal B facility in the U.S. Following the refinancing, our weighted average interest rate on all debt is approximately 5.5%. and the debt's weighted average term to maturity has been extended to five years. Due to the increased interest rates environment, we therefore expect financial expense to increase by about $10 million in Q1 compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 23. And now I'll turn to Philippe to provide his concluding remarks.

Thank you, Patrice. So as you can see, during the year we made progress on delivering our strategy. Our priority is to continue to strengthen our core foundation through a distinctive customer experience, high-quality product offering, solid brands, increased digitization, and improved operational efficiencies. While we focus our actions on six growth factors of pursuing network expansion, evolving our broadband network, expanding into new customer segments, launching and growing mobile services, make accretive and complementary acquisitions, and transforming our radio business. Finally, as we pursue our journey for sustainable growth, we do this through our long-standing tradition of social engagement and community involvement, prioritizing digital inclusion and climate action, implementing leading operating practices, and pursuing responsible and ethical management. On this, Patrice and I will be happy to take your questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your question will be polled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the two. One moment for the first question. Our first question comes from Amahir Yagi from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yes, great. Thank you for taking my questions, guys. I wanted to ask you maybe first question on the U.S. cable business process. Evidently, you're seeing the success that Comcast and Charter are having in wireless, and I definitely understand the view that the bundling of wireless there could be worthwhile, especially that it's not going to cost you much capex, like you said. But I wanted to maybe focus a little bit on the fixed wireless you highlighted that for the first time, I think, in your MD&A. You talked about it in the past, but you directly referenced it as a reason for the weakness that you're seeing in the U.S. So can you maybe talk a little bit about how is fixed wireless affecting your business? And at the margin, is it, pressuring subscribers or also pressuring your ARPUs down there. And as a follow-up on the wireless side, more in Canada, how much of your CapEx for 2024 that you're targeting are allocated to spend on CapEx and wireless for the launch of your Canadian wireless business? Thank you.

Thank you, Maya and Philippe. Let me just start, Patrice will add. On fixed wireless access, certainly the place we see it the most is in the Ohio footprint, in Columbus particularly. The market there was a three-player market and with some capacity and an inferior product to competitors actually inserted this market with Verizon and T-Mobile. So they don't have the same product, so they compete at the lower price point. But that's where we see it the most. We've said it many times. Eventually, this mobile capacity that they're using for fixed wireless access will run out. and we are expecting market dynamics to change at that point.

On the CapEx, I'll give you a more general answer that we provided in the guidance. It's basically if you include the cash flows, so it includes CapEx and OpEx. There's some tax reduction as well coming from this. It's the impact on a year-over-year change. So the increase we're making there is about 10% of free cash flow. So for competitive reasons, I won't go into more details and specifics on this, but it gives you an idea of the free cash flow level.

Yeah, I saw that number, that quote you said in MD&E. I was trying to figure out exactly what it means. So basically, of the 5% to 10% free cash flow decline, 10% is due to wireless CapEx, i.e., if there was no wireless CapEx and operating costs, free cash flow would have been flat year on year, basically, at the midpoint. Is that how I should be reading this?

If we had kept the mobility investments, which includes OpEx and CapEx, at the same level as last year, then the free cash flow would have been stable. So it's the year-over-year increase that's creating that pressure in free cash flow, if that answers your question.

Yeah, that makes sense. Okay, and just to follow up on that, so how should we think about the spending of that cash throughout the year? And as we head into getting close to the launch, what is it essentially going to be spent on?

Yeah, it's a mix of things. I would say in terms of cadence, it's spread throughout the year. So we do have salaries. We do have some IT costs in there and some physical capex as well. We do own Spectrum, as you know, with some deployment requirements as well. So it's all part of that. But I would say it would be, we already have a team built, so it would be not necessarily meaningfully changing from one quarter to another.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jerome Deweel from Desjardins Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Oui, bonjour. Thanks for taking my question. Another one on wireless. Not that it sounds that you're fully decided. There are some things you still need to check, but... I'd like to ask what kind of profitability or IRR thresholds you're looking at for these projects, maybe more a bit than the U.S. I mean, is there an IRR threshold similar to what you've been delivering in the past, or is it more about the growth that could bring you?

Yeah, so obviously we're not at a point yet where we're announcing a launch of mobility in either country, but we are investing more time and effort into it and dollars, obviously. And we've been at it for a while in Canada, as we've talked about before. In the U.S., it's a bit newer. The approach in the U.S. will be more like other players are doing, at least initially. is to go with a pure MVNO. So when you are referring to IRRs, really it's an extremely capital-light approach where you can basically pay for the service, which includes most of the services you need, a little different than Canada. And the goal of doing this is obviously you can bundle products and In the U.S., we would be targeting the areas where we operate. As to more specifics on how it could impact our results, it would be more of a fiscal 25 question. And I think once we move closer to announcing launches, then we can probably provide a bit more information at that point.

Jerome, keep in mind that on the Canadian side, we will operate within a regulated MPNO regime. So we are progressing in the negotiation. We will update in due time. But there is also a point where arbitration is a part of this regime. We're not there yet. We are negotiating. And eventually, if we can't find all the items that we need to make this a good, viable, long-term business, there's an arbitration process.

Great. And then a second kind of similar question, but on the cable side in the U.S., is what we are seeing in terms of fixed wireless having an impact on the mid-teens, unlevered returns that you've been alluding to in the past, so far, or are your models maybe longer term and this target still holds?

Yeah, in terms of the, so you're referring to our network expansions and fiber to the home. Obviously, because these projects are always long-term, because you load customers over several years, and obviously we go in areas where there's no fiber to the home, so we come in as a third player there. We've seen some impact in terms of ARPU and cadence of sub-loadings, but we're still targeting the similar IRRs. So it's not to a major level, I would say, that would change our targeted returns in the U.S. Great. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephanie Price from CIBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning. I was hoping you could dig into the 6,000 in net losses in Ohio, which as you noted, was higher than the prior two quarters. Just curious what you're seeing in the region and how you're adjusting your competitive strategy there. And then also related, just maybe the US market outside Ohio, have there been any changes to the overall competitive environment? Thank you.

Thank you, Stephanie. Well, in Ohio, as I said, we're investing We've increased significantly the capacity and the quality of our products. There are network speed and capacity. So our strategy remains to go up market to actually take higher value customers at the mid and upper end of the spectrum, while the some are targeting the very low end of this product scale. So we're moving up, and it's actually better product mix and better margins that we're going to find there, that we are finding there.

Yeah, and if I can add also, we've introduced an IPTV product, so not every customer has TV services, but obviously this is a lot more modern as a platform. And we're proactively rolling out this service for those who have it. And we obviously are continuing our marketing and awareness campaign. So between all these things and the infrastructure investments that Philippe referred to, which provide a lot more stability and strength in the network, we have a good basis then to be able to do what we intend to do, which is to grow the business there. And outside Ohio, we are in different areas. So we operate in 13 states. So we are some that are growing, some that are a bit more under pressure, and some that are more neutral. So that's why every quarter we'll have some, if you look at the past few quarters, we've had some increases and decreases. This one had a small loss in the Q4. and it partially has to do with what's happening nationally in the U.S., partially due to the FWA competition, especially in big urban cities that are putting some pressure on other players and impact on our group.

Thank you. And maybe just one more for me on capital allocation. So you've raised the dividend by 10% this quarter, and it seems like you paused buybacks over the last few months. So just curious about your thoughts on capital allocation at this point.

Yeah, so in terms of the dividend for CCA, we kept the trend that we had in the past of 10%, and we still feel comfortable with the level of free cash flow payout, which is going to be about 40% in the coming year. We always see the share buyback program as more opportunistic, so we did buy a lot in the last two, three years. But more recently, as we've made investments in OXIO, for example. And a lot of investments in network extensions, we reduce this as we're a bit higher than our target leverage. So not by a major margin, but still a bit higher. So that's why we haven't been active more recently.

Great. Thanks for the call.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew Griffith from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you for taking the question. My first question really is just, does your guidance include an assumption that wireless gets launched in this current year? I understand the wording, I think, around the inclusion in free cash flow, which sounds like almost preparatory work, but I was wondering if the revenue and EBITDA numbers are assuming a launch occurs in the year. And then maybe just on Ohio and the U.S. generally, I know this quarter was a bit more negative than you had anticipated, but, you know, what is your level of confidence or how much visibility do you think you have on when you can kind of turn that, you know, broadband subscriber trajectory around and return to growth? And maybe just lastly, if there's any comment you can make on since subscriber growth is challenging and competition is intense and showing no signs of really abating, how do you feel about your ability to raise prices as a tool to generate growth under the current conditions? Thanks.

All right, so good morning. So in terms of the guidance, because when, as Philippe said, we're not necessarily planning to launch in either country in the early part of the year. So when we are ready to announce a launch, we'll come back to you. But in terms of the guidance, we do have some costs that we're going to invest in. But to the extent there's any revenue in the top line, it would not be a meaningful number So it's not a very precise answer because we are not ready necessarily to provide exact timing, but I would say there's not any meaningful revenue in the top line. In terms of, shall I continue? In terms of Ohio, in our assumptions, obviously we're working hard with all the investments we've made and what we discussed earlier on this call to turn the Ohio situation into And we're seeing some positive signs from it as well in terms of NPS scores, for example, which we do measure in the area. And our plan is to turn that to a positive number during the year. And in terms of ability to raise prices, this is always something we look at. It's normal to see some price increases as we have, obviously, to cover inflation in our costs. But obviously, it's something we're mindful of. especially in the current context of the economy. And we'll take decisions throughout the year on where we want to go with this. But we did put some in the last quarter in Q4 of fiscal 23.

We stay encouraged by product mix moving up and also, as I said before, customer tenure as well. Customers are are recognizing the value of our products and they're staying with us. The NPS score is also improving. In terms of price increase, we are not going to make it easy to our competitors, and we try to create even more efficiencies in our operation and reduce our own costs to push the absolutely minimum price increase to the market. sometimes even below inflation.

Okay, thanks for that. I mean, can I follow up maybe just with the – is there any way you can kind of give us or prepare us for when you do launch wireless, assuming you launch in the markets? I know that's a step maybe you don't want to even kind of acknowledge publicly, at this stage because it's early and you don't want to give anything away, but should we be anticipating that guidance would most likely be revised down? Because in the early period of launching a new service like that, you would most likely have to absorb losses, even if it's ultimately successful. But in the early period, is that what we should be anticipating? just to get some expectations set around, whether it's this year or next, when it does eventually come.

Sure. So I'll comment on fiscal 24, which we just released in terms of guidance. So we are not planning to change it based on what you mentioned. So we have factored in our plans. It's just that we are not ready publicly to discuss timing and of what we're planning to do in the countries at this point, but not planning to change guidance for this. As we look forward to future years, then we'll talk later when we are ready to discuss launches, if that answers your question. It does. Thank you so much.

Thank you. It's been some time we're at this, and I've said it many times, we are working on a capital-efficient model to launch mobile services.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks very much. Glad to see my phone is working today. The question I have starts with the guidance on EBITDA. Just to be clear, Patrice, the 1% drag from wireless, you're going to put that all through the corporate line? It won't impact the Canadian or U.S. divisions at all? It seems like it's $14 million. 1% of what you did last year would be around 14 million. Am I misreading that somehow?

Yeah, so the increase versus last year would be around 14 million, you're right, about 1%. And there is, I would say the bulk of it is in the corporate line, that's right, as sort of in a pre-mode at a larger scale. But we have a bit of it in the business units as well.

So to follow up then, Patrice, if If we know it's $14 million of OPEX and you say it's 10% hit to free cash flow, why is it that you think we don't have the CapEx number? I mean, I can't – or cash tax savings, like material on $14 million of OPEX?

But again, this is the increase in year-to-year, right? It's not the absolute number. But if I heard your question correctly, I'll try to answer it. So you have the increase in OPEX, and then we do have some IT integration costs, which fall just below the EBITDA line. And we do have some CAPEX as well, and then some tax reduction coming from these investments. That provides for, if you take a 10% of free cash flow, you do get to about an increase of $40 million net on this.

So you... the IT costs you're talking about could be characterized as a type of capex as well, could they not?

They used to. And now, given the new rules for the past few years, there's a number of IT costs that are not capitalizable anymore. So that's why they're being shown basically just below the EBITDA line.

And then just to clarify again, as you've highlighted and as it's abundantly obvious, the US MVNO would be entirely reselling somebody else's network with no obligation to build. So it would be not just CapEx Lite, it would be almost CapEx Zero. So any CapEx you do imply in your free cash flow has to be vast majority in Canada. Is that incorrect?

That's right.

Okay. So I wanted to just make sure I clarify all those numbers first and just ask one other big picture question. Look, I know you think wireless is important to your future. But you've already spent $400 million on spectrum. There's more spectrum coming. Then just tip of the iceberg, you're already having operating losses and incremental capex. That may all seem fine and good when your share price is over $100, but now that you're at $56, what does the board think about this in terms of weighing that longer-term risky investment versus just simply buying back your stock?

Well, we are network builders, Vince. We build high-quality networks, high-quality products to be selling in the market. We expand our coverage. That's our business model. So we work constantly on providing this service at the best price possible, the lowest cost possible. and keep on adding. Now, with mobile or wireless and wireline services coming together, it's a necessary evolution going forward to have the two products.

Can I ask a similar question on the expansion capex in the rural stuff? The amount this year still seems quite high. Is Nobody knows exactly what's going on with the BEAD program and the U.S. trajectory, but for the Canadian stuff, would you expect a big decline in 2025 because you've already finished Quebec and you should be pretty much finished the Ontario network wins in this fiscal year, so there's a big step down in 2025, or does it stay at the same high run rate for a few years?

For Canada, you're right. So we're done with Quebec. The focus now is on Ontario. There's more construction in fiscal 24 in Ontario than in 25, so there should be a step down. But we're not going to be fully done this year because as part of this, there's many smaller projects as part of the total build, and some come earlier than later. And then I do expect that after that in 26, that would be pretty much done. We always do a bit of construction every year as there's new extensions and new neighborhoods in the areas where we operate. But the subsidized build should be higher this year, slower next year, and probably nil or very close to zero in 26 in Canada.

Vince, let me link those two components for greater clarity here. We have invested massively upgrading our broadband networks. Every new expansion has been in fiber. There was a lot of investment to create a high-quality, superior broadband network. Knowing that mobile networks or wireless services are 95% wired based on fiber optic networks, it's only natural to add the wireless over and above the investment we've made in improving our broadband networks. It goes together. We're at that stage.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yes, good morning. A couple for me. Just shifting gears a little bit here on the macro side, for a couple quarters now in the U.S., you've alluded to a softer macro environment. In Canada, among all the Canadian operators, there just doesn't appear to be anything that's really worth noting outside of the edges and outside of media. Just wondering if you can kind of compare and contrast the two countries in terms of what you're seeing in real time here, because it all feels like something is coming here in Canada, but no one's really flagging anything at this point. And then secondly, just back to the U.S. Wireless NVNO initiative, you've kind of brushed that off going back three or four years. I think we're all certainly up to speed on dynamics in the U.S. market. Just at a high level, why now? What has changed specifically in your thinking on wireless, whether that's consumer-driven or competitive-driven? Any of that high-level context would be great. Thank you.

There was always a... a barrier to entry in wireless markets. But the one on the U.S. side has been lowered significantly by the MNOs wanting to enter into commercial deals. So that's one of the significant changes. So now there are MVNOs and even MVNEs in the U.S. There's a market and it's much more easier than it was a number of years before. to strike a good deal, although it's a very light MVNO, meaning you only need some IT equipment and sales and marketing to jump in this market. So the market has evolved on a wholesale commercial basis in the U.S. I forgot your first question, but what was your first question?

Philippe, on the macro side, macro headwinds, just comparing the two countries where in Canada, at least, it feels as if we hear from all the operators, like not a big issue, but I'm not sure everyone's buying it at this juncture.

Well, of course, in Canada, we focus on our markets. We expand and we keep the high-quality products, keeping our customers happier. Yes, there are competitive pressures. We can see here and there some price points to prove it, but we're well equipped to fight in our territory to protect our existing base and grow where we have expanded networks. So it's not the same level of intensity that we see in some places in the States, and it's very large players that sometimes can't seem to have the ability to adjust their pricing level at the city level. So when they suffer from competitive intensity in some place, they lower price in larger area than needed. That's not something we see in Canada. I think we're more disciplined in Canada and we can fight market by market when needed.

And sorry, Philip, just as a poll, thank you for that contrast. On the macro side in terms of economic headwinds, just what you're seeing here in Canada and how that contrasts to the U.S.?

Well, we see on the consumer market on both sides, while inflation is there, the pressure on the consumer is really high. They're There seems to be a little bit more challenge for consumers in the U.S. market.

If I can add, also, obviously, we do track this very carefully, and it varies a lot by the regions we operate. Especially in the States, we operate in very different regions. In terms of tracking our bad debts, this is something that's under control. I would say the major difference would be on the video side, partially because there's more over-the-top offerings in the U.S., but also for consumers that want to reduce their bills. That's sometimes the way that they're using. Although, I must say, more recently we're seeing signs of of stabilization. We have yet to see this in our real numbers, but from different information we're seeing as people take different OTT services, it does add up as well, and those costs on the OTT side are going up quite rapidly as well. So it's evolving, but I would say the rate of attachment on TV products is obviously a lot lower in the U.S., and that's something that has... that has impacted the telecom operators, especially on the revenue side. Okay, great. Thank you both.

Thank you, there appear to be no further questions. I'll return the conference back to Mr. Winnie.

All right, well, thank you, everybody, and we'll be looking forward to talking to you for the next quarterly call in January, and feel free to call us if you have any questions. Thank you.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.