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spk02
Welcome to the Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Doris Bond, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary. Please go ahead.
spk00
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Choice Properties Q4 2021 Conference Call. I'm joined here this morning by Rael Diamond, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mario Barifato, Chief Financial Officer, and Anna Raddick, Executive Vice President, Leasing and Operations. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that by discussing our financial and operating performance and in responding to your questions, we may make forward-looking statements, including statements regarding choice properties objectives, strategies to achieve those objectives, as well as statements with respect to management's beliefs, plans, estimates, intentions, outlook, and similar statements concerning anticipated future events, results, circumstances, performance, or exceptions that are not historical facts. These statements are based on our current estimates and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ in material from the conclusions in these forward-looking statements. Additional information on the material risks that can impact our financial results and estimates and the assumptions that were made in applying and making these statements can be found in the recently filed Q4 2021 financial statements and management discussion and analysis, which are available on our website and on CEDAW. I will now turn the call over to Rael.
spk07
Thank you, Doris, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join our fourth quarter conference call. We are pleased with our solid financial results for the quarter, demonstrating that our business model, stable tenant base, and disciplined approach to financial management continue to position us well. additionally we continue to advance our development pipeline and execute on our capital recycling initiatives which provides us with exceptional opportunities to add high quality real estate and drive net asset value growth over time turning to the full year 2021 was a year of resilience and we are proud of our accomplishments In addition to our strong performance, we reinforced our commitment to sustainability and made significant advancements in our environmental, social, and governance program. To maximize our impact, we have focused our ESG strategy on two pillars, fighting climate change and addressing social equity. In addition, we committed to set emission targets that are in line with current climate science. In November, we integrated sustainable finance into our business with the release of our green financing framework and the completion of our inaugural green bond offering. Joining me on today's call is Anna Raddick, who will provide an update on our strong operational results, and then Mary Baraparta, who will provide an update on our solid financial results. I will then provide an update on our transaction activity and our development program. Anna, over to you.
spk01
Thank you, Rail, and good morning, everyone. As Rail mentioned, we are pleased with our operational results for the quarter and continue to see positive signs across the portfolio. Although renewed operating restrictions were implemented in late 2021 due to the emergence of the Omicron variant, we are seeing positive leasing momentum, most notably in our retail and industrial segments. Our approximately 45 million square foot retail portfolio, which consists of open air centres with necessity-based tenants, continues to deliver stable results. Canadian retail performance in 2021, as well as other macro factors, indicate that we have turned the corner in the economic recovery. Retail sales for 2021 are up 8% compared to pre-COVID levels in 2019, leading to a positive outlook for 2022. Our retail occupancy increased slightly from the prior quarter, as 115,000 square feet of new deals commenced in the quarter and 410,000 square feet of renewals were completed, at rents 3.9% above expiring rents, resulting in tenant retention of 89%. Our neighborhood centers continue to perform exceptionally well. At the height of the pandemic, we saw few tenant closures and steady demand. What we are seeing now are a variety of tenants actively looking to open new locations, with discount, quick-serve restaurants, off-price fashion, home furnishings, pharmacies, pet stores, and fitness operators being the most active. We are also seeing strong demand at our power centers, In the quarter, we completed several new deals with home furnishing, fashion, and discount retailers. Industrial fundamentals are strong, and this segment will provide growth going forward as the supply-demand imbalance in most markets for distribution and logistic warehouses continues to drive record high rental rates. The GTA market availability rate remained at 0.9% unchanged from the third quarter, while national availability dropped to 1.8%, an all-time historic low. Our portfolio occupancy increased 40 basis points in the quarter, finishing at 98% occupied. We are seeing improved leasing conditions in Calgary and Halifax, having completed 75,000 square feet of new lease deals in these markets. Our Western Canadian portfolio is 95.6% leased, outperforming the markets. We anticipate that Calgary will continue to tighten as it is a key distribution hub and is benefiting from the growth in logistics tenants as well as improved economic certainty, fueling demand for spaces 10,000 square feet and under. Our 6.6 million square foot Ontario portfolio sits at full occupancy. While we had limited industrial maturities in the quarter, we are optimistic in our ability to capitalize on strong market fundamentals to continue to grow rents. We have several large blocks of distribution space expiring in 2022 that will give us the opportunity to do just that. Our industrial occupancy and NOI will decline in 2022 as we release several large blocks to new tenants. These new lease deals will be completed at significantly higher rents resulting in higher industrial NOI in 2023. For example, we have completed a new 113,000 square foot lease deal in the GTA, with the incoming tenant's lease rate exceeding that of the outgoing tenant by $7.25 per square foot, which is 120% increase over the expiring tenant's rent. Office leasing momentum improved in Q4, with more tour activity and a reduction in sublease spaces as tenants that delayed space planning decisions due to COVID began reentering the market. With office vacancy rates increasing across most markets in Q4, in downtown Toronto, where our largest assets are located, market vacancy dropped 20 basis points in the quarter to 9.7% and sublease availability dropped even further. Occupancy in our 3.6 million square foot office portfolio declined from 88.7 to 88.2% due to limited leasing activity taking effect in the quarter and 18,000 square feet of negative absorption in Halifax and Montreal. That said, we did see a lift in renewal spreads of approximately 4.5% on the deals that were completed in the quarter. Starting this fall, we have seen a marked increase in tour activity with more new tenants looking to transact and existing tenants expressing a desire to expand. Small and mid-sized tenants were most active as their space utilization did not change as compared to larger tenants. During the quarter, we completed expansions of four office tenants, and five new deals in Calgary, totaling 26,000 square feet at our own share, taking effect in future periods. Overall, our operating results in the fourth quarter and for the year were strong, reflecting the strength and resilience of our portfolio. We are confident that the operating decisions and investments we have made will continue to deliver strong results looking ahead. I'll now pass the call over to Mario to discuss our financial performance.
spk05
Thank you, Anna. And good morning, everyone. The fourth quarter reflects our ongoing ability to deliver solid financial results. This is evident in our financial performance and bio-right collections, which were over 99% for the year, while bad debt expense was $750,000 for the quarter, our lowest provision during the pandemic. Our reported expense from operations for the fourth quarter was $174.7 million for 24.2 cents per unit. Included in FFO are certain non-recurring items which effectively net each other out, but they include a $1.5 million early redemption premium for our Series 1 unsecured adventure that would have matured in the first quarter of 2022, and $1.3 million of higher G&A costs primarily driven by a head office lease termination payment. This was offset by income of $2.6 million related to lease termination and other revenue adjustments. Compared to prior year, primarily due to contractual red steps in our retail portfolio, increased occupancy and rental rate lifts in our industrial portfolio, and a decline in bad debt expense of $1.5 million. On a per unit diluted basis, our Q4 FFO was 24.2 cents, up 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Our period end occupancy remains strong, increasing slightly to 97.1% compared to 97% the last quarter, with retail at a strong 97.5%, industrial at 98%, and office at 88.2%. We had approximately 808,000 square feet of lease expires in the quarter, of which we renewed 734,000 square feet for a retention ratio of 84%, and leasing spreads in these renewals were 3.3%. We also completed a further 201,000 square feet of new leasing, resulting in overall positive absorption of 56,000 square feet for the quarter. Same asset cash in Hawaii increased by 2.6% compared with the fourth quarter of 2020. By asset class, retail increased by 2.6%, while industrial increased by 5.5%. These increases reflect the improvements in rent collections, contractual rent steps in the retail portfolio, and positive fundamentals in the industrial portfolio. Office same asset cash NOI decreased 3.7%, primarily due to vacancies in Ontario and Alberta, partially offset by a reduction in bad debt expense. When excluding bad debt expense, total same asset cash NOI increased by 2%. We're pleased that we've been able to maintain stable occupancy and consistent same asset results for five consecutive quarters. Our business continues to be supported by our industry-leading balance sheet that provides us with flexibility in the face of broader market volatility. We reported a total increase to our net asset value of $153 million, or 1.7%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter we've recognized NAV growth. Our growth was driven by fair value gains in our investment properties of $109 million, mainly attributed to strong demand fundamentals for industrial properties. We also continue to improve both our leverage ratios and our liquidity profile for the quarter. Our leverage was 40.1% at the end of the fourth quarter, an improvement of 2.6% compared to 2020. Our debt to EBITDA declined to 7.2 times compared to the reported 7.6 times in the fourth quarter of 2020. Normalizing for excess cash from the timing of transactional activity in both years, debt to EBITDA declined to 7.1 times compared to 7.3 in the fourth quarter of 2020. From a liquidity perspective, we have approximately $1.6 billion in available cash, comprised of $1.5 billion of available credit on our line, and $125 million in cash and cash equivalents. This is further supported by approximately $12.8 billion of unencumbered properties. As Raoul mentioned, we successfully completed our inaugural green bond offering in the fourth quarter, issuing $350 million of unsecured debentures for a five-year term, bearing interest at 2.46% per annum. Proceeds from this offering were used to improve our debt maturity profile by early redeeming our $300 million March 2020 venture and repaying our credit facility. The pricing on this transaction is a testament to our strong credit, with the spread representing the lowest five-year Canadian REIT spread on record. Pricing also reflected a seven-base point greenium relative to where our bonds were trading on the secondary prior to launch. In addition to strengthening our debt profile, we continue to improve the overall quality of our portfolio through capital recycling. Late in the quarter, we successfully and opportunistically sold 230 million of income-producing properties deemed non-strategic to our core portfolio, while acquiring 40 million in properties. For the year, we divested 330 million of properties and reinvested the proceeds into 240 million of high-quality properties with either stronger fundamentals or development potential. The rail will provide more colour on the Q4 transaction shortly. In addition to acquisitions, we continue to add high-quality properties through our development program. We end the year with development spending totaling $135 million. Completions for the year will roughly double this number at $255 million, adding 428,000 square feet of GLA to our portfolio and 324 residential units at the Brinkston and Liberty House in Toronto. So overall, we are pleased with our quarterly and annual performance We continue to deliver stable and resilient operating results while driving that asset value through development and capital recycling. All of this supported by a conservative and flexible balance sheet. I'll now turn the call over to Rayl to address our development and investment activities.
spk07
Thank you, Mario. Looking back at 2021, we made significant progress on both our development program and transaction activities. We completed approximately $570 million in total transactions and meaningfully advanced industrial development pipeline and future residential pipelines. During the year, we completed and transferred 10 projects at a total investment cost of approximately $250 million, delivering 145,000 square feet of commercial space and 394 residential units. Turning to the quarter, we completed 46 million of acquisitions and 230 million of dispositions. On the acquisitions grant, we completed the purchase of 550 Eglinton Avenue from a third party. This high-performing shoppers drug mart is located in a desirable midtown node of Toronto, providing excellent long-term redevelopment potential adjacent to a future transit station on the Eglinton LRT line. We also closed on the vending from Loblaw of a standalone grocery store in Guelph, one of the fastest growing cities in Ontario. Finally, we continued to assemble land with a future industrial development potential at our Calvin site, adding approximately 16 acres to the 300 net acres acquired during Q1. This was completed at an attractive pricing per acre, consistent with the original acquisition Our development partner is currently working through the rezoning approval process with the town of Calvin to permit a total of approximately 5 million square feet of industrial space. As Barry mentioned, we remain active on the disposition front, and during the quarter, opportunistically sold approximately 230 million of non-core assets and underutilized land. These dispositions speak to the demand from investors for our assets. and we successfully transacted on the assets at pricing above our book value on each of them. On the industrial front, we capitalized on the market by selling a portfolio of five older generation assets for $45 million in Calgary with operational challenges. And on the retail side, we sold six assets across the country for total proceeds of approximately $172 million. On the development front, During the quarter, we transferred two residential projects to income-producing properties, including Liberty House and the third and final phase of the Brixton for a total development cost of approximately 108 million. Liberty House is at the entrance to Liberty Village and is now 30% leased, and we expect stabilization by the second quarter of 2023. Brixton is located in downtown Toronto at the Dufferin and Queen intersection and is approximately 75% LEED, and we expect stabilization in the second half of this year. Subsequent to the quarter, we purchased our development partner share in each of these assets, increasing our total ownership to 50%. We also recently received permits on our industrial development in South Surrey, BC. This new generation logistics facility will target LEED silver certification It is up for tender with the contractor already mobilized on site. When complete, the center will add approximately 350,000 square feet to our growing industrial portfolio. Looking ahead, we have 11 projects representing over 10.5 million square feet in different stages of the rezoning and planning process. We believe we have one of the best long-term development pipelines in the REIT space that will drive significant long-term net asset value appreciation. With that, I would like to turn the call back to the operator for questions.
spk02
As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question is from Sam Damianani with TD Securities.
spk08
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Just wanted to start off on, I guess, what you ended off on, Rail, which is the value of these significant sites that Choices had for years. Most of them near or adjacent to mass transit. How are you thinking about the fair valuing of those properties today versus a few years ago? And how are you thinking we should think about how that might be booked for the next couple of years?
spk05
Sure, I'll take that one. I guess, Sam, there's two ways. I mean, right now, in our financials, they're valued just at their income-producing capability today. We tend to value our properties or increase their values based on milestones where we have visibility. And so right now, I think there's value there, but it's just not reflected in our financials. And as we advance to pursue construction, as we pursue zoning, as we pursue leasing, you'll see that pop. And I guess Golden Moth is a good example of where there's a store right now. And as we advance that and as we have more, I guess, validation of the value, then we'll see that come through our financial statements.
spk08
Is that something, Mario, you think might occur within the next one to two years based on? your framework that you've got in mind right now?
spk05
I think it will happen gradually, Sam, and there will be milestones, I believe, next year. But you don't get that pop anymore. It's going to be gradual over the life of the development. Okay.
spk08
Well, just on the disposition activity, I wonder if you could just, I guess, get into a little bit of detail on the rationale for a couple of the properties that were sold. including the retail and the industrial-loaded Calgary?
spk07
Yes. So we'll start with the industrial. The industrial was older generation industrial, not typical industrial. And from our point of view, it had leasing challenges, didn't have the right dock doors, access, et cetera. And in fact, some of the tenants were typical industrial users. On the retail side, truthfully, we always look to clean up or sell weak assets in our portfolio that we view as non-strategic. As an example, we sold a large power center in Quebec City that had tenants that we view maybe at longer-term risk. So we're able to recycle that capital into better long-term growth assets such as the industrial we've spoken about this year.
spk08
Okay, last one for me would just be on the two residential properties that were completed last year and you increased your ownership stakes. Is there anything you could, I guess, share with us in terms of the pricing on those increased stakes relative to cost or how it was determined?
spk07
Look, it was a negotiated price. It was done at fair market value. It was purchased at between $900 and $1,000 a foot. which would translate to, you know, around a 3.5 cap rate. And I don't remember our exact cost per foot, Sam, but I think our cost per foot was closer to between $600 and $700 all in. But I don't remember the exact number of that. But remember, we started these projects about three years ago, so we did benefit, obviously, from locking in pricing earlier.
spk08
Great. Thank you. That's it. I'll turn it back.
spk02
Your next question is from Samaya Saeed with CIBC.
spk10
Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to touch on the two residential assets that got moved to income producing the quarter, and if there was any NOI contribution from those, and if not, how do you see that stabilizing?
spk05
There would have been some. It was very small, I think, you know, in the quarter. But as Ralph said, you know, Brixton will stabilize, you know, this year, Liberty House next year. So there will be NOI, but again, given the size of the project's relative portfolio, I think right now it won't have that meaningful impact on total NOI.
spk10
Okay. And then just moving on to rent collections, obviously very strong, but just the portion that's been deferred and outstanding, when do you expect to recover that? If it's going to be within 2022 or anything spilling over into a 23?
spk01
Hi, Samia. The majority of our deferral agreements with tenants are with repayment over 2022. That would be the vast majority. I would say like 95, 90%. And then there are some with very large creditworthy tenants that we did agree to extend the deferral into 2023. But again, those would only be with our very large tenants.
spk10
Okay. Thanks, and Anna, you mentioned that you're seeing an improvement on the office side in terms of activity. Can you touch on what you're seeing in terms of rents and lease terms as you have these dialogues with tenants?
spk01
Yeah, I mean, rents are holding up very well. We've recorded our spreads on office rents this quarter were 4.5%, and we are really seeing you know, a marked drop in rents, and there's still rental rate growth relative to, you know, deals that were entered into five years ago. So I think rents are holding up very well. And then in terms of activity, we're seeing, you know, good activity, as I said, from smaller and midsize tenants particularly. Yeah.
spk10
Okay, thanks. That's it for me. Thank you.
spk02
Your next question is from Himanshu Gupta with Scotiabank.
spk04
Thank you and good morning. So in industrial portfolio, you're expecting some reduction in occupancy as some of the expiries come due in 2022 and then obviously see recovery next year. So how should we think about the same asset and why goods in 2022 in this segment?
spk05
Hey, Hemantji. So right now, again, as I said, things are very positive. And absent the industrial vacancies, we'd be expecting, say, an S&NY growth of slightly over 2%. But because of those vacancies, it'll be probably close to 1.5% overall. But we expect retail to be at around 2%. The industrial, because of those vacancies, will be... probably flat or slightly negative. But as Anna said, when those leases renew, renewing at rents, that could be 80 to 100% higher. So the following year, I think the seeds are planted really for strong, you know, stronger NY growth. Again, close to that two, two and a half, but next year it'll be muted a bit.
spk04
Got it. So the big recovery in the industrial will be 2023 and probably 2022 will be a bit muted. And then Mary, you also mentioned retail at 2%. So if I look at the retail occupancy, it's still slightly below pre-pandemic levels. So are you baking in some occupancy gains as well in your 2% estimate?
spk05
Slightly, yeah. So we were about 97.5. Our retail is there right now. And we see a bit of occupancy gain. It may get back on the office side. But the most positive thing is that we're seeing some rental rate growth again. And that will be the driver of NOI growth.
spk04
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then, you know, just sticking to the industrial side, I mean, if I look at the IFRS cap rate, Industrial portfolio is now at like 5.33 cap rate. Do you think there is scope for the cap rate to come down, especially in the context of the recent transactions facing the market?
spk05
Yeah, we do. I mean, we've been writing it up every quarter because, again, for the process internally, we try to be disciplined, have third-party data. And every quarter, there's new data. There's new information on rents. And there's new information on transactions. And we do think there's value there, both in the stabilized industrial and especially in the development, the development land requires.
spk04
Okay. And then, you know, again, industrial, you sold those non-core older generation assets in Calgary, like $45 million. Are there more of these you think will be eligible for capital recycling this year?
spk07
I'm not sure this year, Himanshu, but there are few assets, but nothing material that we view as non-core.
spk04
Okay, okay. And well, you know, sticking to capital recycling, I mean, the question is capital allocation. I mean, yes, I mean, are we likely to see more disposition in general to support the development and investment activity? I mean, that's been the playbook so far. I mean, are you prepared to keep the leverage at different levels and do capital recycling?
spk05
Yeah, I mean, you know, we've sold, I would say the last three years, probably over a billion maybe, north of a billion. So we really believe that this is just part of our business model is there's always opportunities, you know, to be able to take money out of certain properties and get into other properties. So I think it's going to be there. Right now, we've been really just reinvesting into assets, and we're setting our balance sheet up so when we get into the mixed uses, we're not going to put stress on our balance sheet. So right now, our leverage adjusted for cash is 7.1 times, and we think that will give us a lot of buffer to the next state of our development program. So we will be selling assets. We'll probably just upgrade quality and not necessarily pay down debt.
spk04
Got it. Okay. Thank you. And my last question is on the residential development. I'm looking at Mount Pleasant Village in Canton. Development yield is like mid-4, I think, a bit slightly lower than the Liberty House of like over 5%. So are you beginning to see any cost pressures or construction cost escalating on you, any color there?
spk07
No, we're not expecting any real cost pressures on that development. The reason it's slightly lower than the others, in fact, there is a condo component that is small. The condo sales outperformed our original pro forma. So just this quarter, we actually broke up the components of condo versus the income components. And then finally, what is bringing down the yield a little bit is we've elected to do some affordable units. And just from a long-term perspective, we're very bullish on the property. It's right adjacent to a GO station, and there's still a significant development spread.
spk04
And is that a requirement from the city or, you know, from a permit perspective to include some affordable component, or is it something you are doing on your voluntary basis?
spk07
It's something that us and our partner, Daniels, chose to do.
spk04
Okay, thank you, guys. That's all from my side. Thank you. I'll turn it back.
spk02
Your next question is from Tal Woolley with National Bank Financial.
spk09
Hi, good morning, everybody. Morning. You know, we've heard on some of your peers' conference calls, too, you know, the idea that, you know, now that things have opened up a little bit more, you're seeing more interest, you know, in touring retail space. uh you know more prospects out there and i recognize it's kind of a difficult question to answer but do you get a sense that this is a bit of a a rush of activity just that you know people are out back getting sort of back into the swing of things or do you think this is kind of a stable level of interest that you're going to see over the long haul um
spk01
Well, I think our interest has been, you know, quite strong throughout. And that, I think, stems from the fact that our portfolio is predominantly grocery anchored and service-based retail. And so I think more tenants are looking to locate with a strong grocery anchor. So that's definitely benefited us. And I would say that, you know, with the rest, you know, in terms of our power centers and so forth, that's where we're really seeing sort of a renewed optimism and, you know, a fundamental belief that having a bricks and mortar location is really important from an overall retail strategy. Like that omni-channel approach is proving to be, you know, what tenants are looking really anchoring to. And you see that even with Amazon opening a bricks and mortar location. So I don't know if it's, I think this is something that's sustained, it's going to be sustained.
spk09
Okay. And then just on the office portfolio, you know, we're thinking about, let me ask the question differently. What is sort of your base case for when you expect kind of the occupancy bleed to stop? Like, when are you thinking that you're going to hit that point?
spk01
Sorry, tell R or the market or?
spk09
You're within the office portfolio. Like, what's your sort of, you know, time horizon for when you think? Because obviously some of this is pandemic related and some of it maybe it's cyclical. I don't know how you're thinking about it. But when do you sort of see that occupancy bleed in office stops?
spk07
Okay, got it. Look, I think, Tal, the first thing is you have to separate our portfolio between Alberta and the rest of the country. And Alberta has really dragged this down significantly. It's been a very challenging market. And the pickup that Anna spoke about, we are seeing in all other markets across the country. We have positioned on previous quarters that there was upcoming vacancy that we knew about in our portfolio. And you are seeing that in Toronto. But there was vacancy that we knew about pre-pandemic. And we are very bullish by the increase in activity that we've seen recently. When exactly it will stabilize, we obviously don't know exactly, but we are encouraged by the recent activity. Ann, if you want to add anything.
spk01
Yeah, and in terms of for office, our rollover exposure is pretty limited. It's about 300,000 square feet. You know, next year, and, you know, 32% of those expiries, you know, we've completed and another 24 are, you know, government tenants that we know we're going to renew. So there may be some further changes. negative absorption through the year, but I think it will be less than we've seen through 2021, and it's just going to depend on how much the new leasing activity picks up, which I'm hopeful it will.
spk09
Okay. And then just lastly, I'm wondering if you can give some color on what management's thinking is and what the board's thinking has been around the distribution. Obviously, I think with inflation rising and These stocks often held as a bond proxy. You might have some shareholders here maybe looking for more going forward. What's the current thinking around that?
spk05
Sure, I'll take that one. We really like where our business is today. The last couple of years, we've had growth and really reinvested it into leverage reduction, improving the quality of the asset, buying some development plans and investing in development spending. And so we felt that that was kind of a priority. I think for 2022, You're going to see a lot of value initiatives come out. You may not see it in the cash flow right away because, as Raoul said, we're in a net disposition position, so we have to deploy some capital to kind of be leveraged neutral. The industrial vacates. We've got some developments that need to stabilize. But I think all the seeds are planted, and I think we've solved a lot of trouble areas that we may be in a position to start talking about it again because you're right. I think our investors have been patient, and I think with inflation, it will be expected, and I think we'll be in a position, you know, once all the seeds that we've talked about today, to fruition, you'll see them in cash flow, and then we'll be able to fund it. So it's something I think we will be talking about now. We haven't talked about it for three years.
spk09
Okay. That's great. Thanks, everybody.
spk02
And as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Your next question is from Pammy Bear with RBC Capital Markets.
spk06
Thanks, and good morning. Just I wanted to clarify maybe the comments on the value recognition of developments. Is the intention to record additional gains as projects are zoned? And then secondly, any visibility you can share perhaps on the amount of square footage that could get approved over the next, call it, one to two years?
spk05
Yeah, I'll take the first one. So, Tommy, it's really development recognition is really a new area, and I think it's evolving and it's becoming more high profile as more companies are developing. We had our own framework where we, given the rigor with auditors, audit committee, we like to make sure that there's some third-party validation in what we do. And so we don't necessarily wait until there is a... zoning, but a high probability of it. And so we may be a bit laggard, but the last thing we want to do is start accounting for this in the public space through our financial statements based on internal probabilities. So with that being said, I think what you're seeing now is You're seeing people carry projects on their books, but then they're transacting at higher rates. And I think that's what's leading maybe some other REITs and the industry to kind of go more to what is that market perspective of something, as opposed to there being third-party validation. And so right now, we tend to go with this milestone approach. And especially when you get larger-scale projects, they're all unique, they're complex. it really gets complicated. So I think, you know, it's really, there's a build attitude. We've just taken a more conservative approach, but I think, you know, we are positive in a lot of developments that are undergoing, and we just haven't hit certain milestones, but there is value there. So I think it's going to evolve, and it's going to be a little different, and you saw, you know, in the last couple of releases, everybody's taken their own perspective as to how they value their developments.
spk07
And I think just on visibility, we We're really hopeful that we can get some of the industrial zoned, you know, later this year. So obviously the large parcel of land in Caledon is significant. And then on the residential side, likely some of Golden Mile and potentially Granville Grove now. We should be able to achieve zoning later this year.
spk06
Got it. Okay. Just, you know, you mentioned some of the transitional vacancy this year and Maybe it's still a bit too early, but when you look at the 2023 maturity, are there any larger ones that maybe give you some concern at all in terms of renewals or any that perhaps might offset some of that or get the return to call it 2% plus organic growth in 2023?
spk07
In 2023, we start having love law renewals. It's very hard to get that 2% plus. As you know, in all likelihood, you know, the leases are capped at 2%, the growth. But outside of love law, there's nothing that concerns us. And on the industrial side, as Anna mentioned, we should get significantly higher than the 2%.
spk06
Got it. Okay, last one for me. Just You know, again, nice to see some of these pretty strong spreads in industrial, particularly in GTA on the receiving. When you look at the industrial portfolio as a whole, where do you estimate the in-place rents are relative to the market?
spk07
You know, probably we don't have that handy. You know, outside of probably Alberta is more similar to markets. Whereas outside of Alberta, our in-place rents are significantly below market, but I don't think we have that exact number. I don't know if Anna has a bit more color.
spk01
Well, I would say in Ontario specifically, our in-place rent is at least 50% to 80% below market. It's under $7.50 a square foot, so that's significantly below where we're doing deals right now, which is always in the double digits and lately at kind of $12 a square foot typically. And yeah, that's where we have our biggest opportunity.
spk06
Great. I will alter that. Thanks.
spk02
And there are no more questions at this time.
spk07
So thank you everyone for joining today's call. Keys to all that you can to stay healthy and safe. And for those celebrating Family Day on Monday, hope you have a good long weekend.
spk02
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
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