speaker
Operator

is about to begin. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Dream Industrial REIT fourth quarter conference call for Wednesday, February 14, 2024. During this call, management of Dream Industrial REIT may make statements containing forward-looking information with the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks, risks, and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Dream industrial REITs control that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking information. Additional information about these assumptions and risks and uncertainties is contained in DREAM industrial REITs filings with securities regulators including its latest annual information form and MD&A. These filings are also available on DREAM industrial REITs website at www.dreamindustrioreet.ca. Later in the presentation, we will have a question and answer session. To queue up for a question, press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Your host for today will be Mr. Alexander Sanikov, CEO of Dream Industrial REIT. Mr. Sanikov, please go ahead.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Dream Industrial REIT's year-end 2023 conference call. Speaking with me today is Linus Kwon, our Chief Financial Officer. We continue to deliver strong operating and financial results in 2023 and executed on our key growth drivers. DIR achieved 11.3% comparative properties NOI growth in 2023, representing the strongest pace of organic growth since the REITs IPO. FFO per unit was 98 cents, 10% higher year over year, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit FFO per unit growth. Our private capital partnerships continue providing us new avenues for growth. In 2023, we grew our accretive and recurring fee stream with over $9 million of net margin generated from our property management and leasing platform, more than double compared to 2022. We continue to execute on our development pipeline with 300,000 square feet of projects completed in 2023, that are expected to achieve an unlevered yield on cost of 7.5%. Supported by a balance sheet strength, we have been actively deploying capital into strategic investment opportunities, especially within our private capital partnerships. These investments offer us the opportunity to generate strong returns and maintain balance sheet flexibility. We completed over $360 million of acquisitions through the Dream Summit Venture during the year. We're currently in exclusive negotiations on a number of additional assets in the GTA totaling 2.5 million square feet of GLA. Going forward, we will continue to focus on growing our private ventures. We will also explore capital recycling opportunities to fund our value-add initiatives and improve our overall portfolio quality. We're currently in negotiations on select disposition opportunities across the portfolio. These dispositions range from user sales to disposals of non-strategic assets to private buyers at compelling pricing parameters, allowing us to recycle capital accretively on a total return basis. Our development execution is progressing well, and we are on track to achieve our forecasted yields. Our 209,000-per-foot, net-zero-ready logistics facility in Mississauga is on track to be completed in mid-2024. We recently signed a 10-year conditional lease for over 60% of the space, achieving a starting rent of over $20 per square foot with annual contractual rent growth of approximately 4%. The remaining 80,000 square feet could be demised into small units, allowing us to capture demand from a broad range of prospective occupiers. Overall, we remain encouraged by the leasing activity across our portfolio. We're responding to numerous requirements both for our development projects and current vacancy, and have seen a significant increase in levels of touring activity since the beginning of the year. We continue to see significant strength in the small and mid-bay segments of the market, both in Canada and in Europe. We have also seen speculative construction activity decrease significantly in our markets, which should translate into continued strength in fundamentals over the near to medium term. Our occupancy rate of 96.2% at the end driven by anticipated transitory vacancies across our Ontario and European portfolios, and we expect to capture strong rental lifts on these vacancies upon lease-up. We continue to execute on our strategy of maximizing rental rates on our new leases and renewals. Since the beginning of 23, we have transacted 7 million square feet of new leases and renewals across DIR and Dream Summit portfolios at a combined average spread of 55%. achieving average contractual rent steps of 3%. Our lease maturities are well staggered, with 6 million square feet of GLA maturing in Canada over the next 24 months, of which approximately 75% is located in Ontario and Quebec, where average market rent is nearly double the in-place rent. In Europe, we have 2.4 million square feet maturing over the next two years, and the current average market rent for these European leases is nearly 10% higher than in-place rents. With market rents over 30% above in place, we are optimistic that we can continue capturing significant organic growth within our portfolio as leases roll. In the near term, we expect occupancy to fluctuate as we continue prioritizing rental growth in our leasing strategy. For 2024, we expect our in-place rents to grow by high single-digit percentage range by the end of the year. We expect that the pace of CP&OI growth will remain strong in the mid-single-digit range on a constant currency basis. Our CP&OI growth expectation is largely predicated on timing of lease-up over transitory vacancies. I will now turn it over to Lennis to discuss our financial highlights.

speaker
Linus Kwon

Thank you, Alex. We ended 2023 with strong financial results, which demonstrates the successful execution of our strategic initiatives over the past few years. Diluted FFO per unit was $0.24 for the quarter and $0.98 for the full year, more than 10% higher year-over-year. The solid year-over-year growth was primarily due to strong comparative properties NOI growth of 9.6% for the quarter and 11.3% for the year. in addition to the fee income generated from our property management platform. Our net asset value per unit at year end was $16.61, modestly lower compared to the prior quarter due to higher cap rates in Europe, partially offset by higher market rents in both Canada and Europe. We continue to actively pursue financing initiatives to maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet with ample liquidity. During the year, we issued $400 million of unsecured debt at an average rate of 5.2% and refinanced €229 million of European mortgages at a weighted average rate of 4.93%. We raised $107 million of capital through our ATM program in mid-2023 at an average price of $14.27 per unit. These proceeds were used to repay floating rate debt, generating immediate FFO per unit accretion. In addition, this enhanced our financial flexibility, allowing us to continue funding our development projects and co-investments in our private ventures, which are expected to generate attractive returns over time. In December, we priced a $200 million unsecured debt issuance via a reopening of our Series F unsecured bond at a lower implied interest rate than the original issuance in early 2023. The offering closed in early January 2024, and the proceeds were partly used to reduce the outstanding balance on our credit facility bearing an average rate of approximately 6.9%, with the remainder earmarked towards funding our development pipeline and contributions to our private capital partnerships. To date in 2024, we have repaid approximately $41 million of mortgage maturities. Our remaining unaddressed debt maturities for 2024 is approximately $260 million, including our Series B $200 million unsecured debenture maturing in June. We are currently evaluating proposals to refinance this bond with unsecured term debt at rates comparable or better than the current 4.5% rate, or we could opportunistically access the unsecured bond market. We ended 2023 with leverage in our target mid-30% range and net debt to EBITDA at 7.7 times. With total available liquidity of nearly $700 million, including the $200 million Series F reopening proceeds, we retained sufficient capital to execute on our strategic initiative. With our in-place rents more than 30% below market and several development projects coming online soon, Our portfolio is positioned well to continue producing strong organic growth that can absorb the higher interest costs from refinancing our debt maturities from 2023 and over the course of 2024. Based on our comparative properties NOI growth expectations, we expect mid-single digit FFO per unit growth in 2024. Our FFO growth expectation is predicated on current foreign exchange leverage levels and interest rate expectations, as well as expected timing of the lease-up of our transitory vacancies. We expect our in-place occupancy and FFO per unit to remain stable for the first quarter of 2024, with growth weighted towards the middle and back half of the year. I will turn it back to Alex to wrap up.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you, Linus. 2023 has been an incredibly exciting year. as we continue focusing on delivering strong results for all of our stakeholders. We will now open it up for questions.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. We'll now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question and you're using a speakerphone, please lift your handset before making your selection. If you have a question, please press star 1 on your device's keypad. To cancel the question, please press star 2. Please press star 1 at this time if you have a question. There will be a brief pause. Participants register. Thank you for your patience. And the first question is from Kyle Stanley from Desjardins. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kyle Stanley

Thanks and good morning. Just want to say thanks for the new disclosure on the expiring lease rate by year. It's very helpful. But just a couple questions around your lease maturity profile. So I guess one, I'm just looking for timing of the lease maturities. Are there any chunky maturities or is it fairly spread out across the year?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

In 2024, there would be fairly spread out. There are some larger maturities in 2025 that are weighted towards the first half of the year. But in 2024, there would be relatively even spread.

speaker
Kyle Stanley

Okay, perfect. And then just secondly, you mentioned this in your commentary, and I think it was in the MD&A as well, but just The language around the new expiring rental rate disclosure, indicating that market rent in Ontario and Quebec is doubled out of in place, I'm just trying to reconcile that comment with the mark-to-market opportunity table that's provided, which would have the mark-to-market just a little bit lower. Are you able to elaborate on that a little bit?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Yeah, absolutely. So this is new disclosure for us, and there's a couple of things to note with the new disclosure table. First of all, what's being disclosed is in-place rents, not expiring rents. So there's in-place contractual escalators that will apply to these in-place rents. Second component, unfortunately, what we captured overnight is there's been a mislabeling of the rows. In the table, we're posting a corrected NDNA table, more or less as we speak. So the table, as shown, reads Western Canada, Ontario, and Quebec. It should be the other way around. So please bear with us, and this is going to get corrected shortly, and then hopefully the table will make more sense and reconcile better with our comments.

speaker
Kyle Stanley

Okay, perfect. No, that's helpful and very much appreciated for the new disclosure. Just secondly, the lease in the Courtney Park asset, very encouraging given the rate escalator and I think the timing of getting it done. When would it come online? And then can you just talk about the type of tenant taking that space?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

The lease will come online in September 2024. You know, please bear in mind that the rate is over $20, so it's not $20.01. It's a very strong rate. We're very encouraged by that. We will obviously provide more color on this particular lease as it gets fully unconditional. When it comes to the type of tenant, it is a logistics user, not a third-party logistics company, but a company that needs... modern logistics space with modern clear heights, great truck courts, etc. So this facility meets their needs.

speaker
Kyle Stanley

Okay, perfect. And then I guess just last one for me. How reflective of the current leasing environment in the GTA was this process? I guess you made some commentary that touring activity has been up to start the year. So I'm just wondering, could you give us a a bit more of an update on what's going on from a leasing demand perspective.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

As we commented, we've seen significant increase in the levels of RFP activity in the market. So there's significant requirements in the 80 to 200,000 square foot range across the GTA. and southwestern Ontario that we are responding to for our new developments, some existing vacancies. We continue to see that occupiers are looking for space that is readily available. So in some cases for our new developments, we are starting to put in small offices on spec as opposed to wait for occupiers to then drive the specifications for the office because we see that users need space effectively tomorrow and even for a brand new warehouse that is otherwise constructed. Building an office requires a permitting process, which then adds to the time as to when occupiers can be in the space. So we're definitely looking at that. And then when it comes to small to mid-bay, we continue to see very strong levels of rental rates and activity.

speaker
Kyle Stanley

Okay, fantastic. Thank you for that. I'll turn it back.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Himanshu Gupta from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Himanshu Gupta

Thank you and good morning. So just on the CP-NOI group guidance of mid-single-digit, so what is driving this? I mean, is it mostly Ontario and Quebec and maybe offset by Europe and Alberta? So maybe can you elaborate on this guidance, please?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Certainly Ontario and Quebec are the top drivers for same-property NOI growth. We are seeing a good pace of same-property NOI growth in Europe. In Europe, leaseable vacancy is going to have a slightly higher contribution to same-property NOI growth compared to some other regions where rents are going to be the driver. Obviously, our in-place escalators are... contributing to the overall same property outlook. And as we commented early in the prepared remarks, the rents are expected to increase by high single digits, mid-single digits for same property NOI growth that's largely predicated on timing of leaseable vacancy and some downtime on a few upcoming rollovers. So occupancy is a factor in St. Property NOI growth outlook. But the number that is going to drive the long-term performance of the business will be on 2024 is the rent. We continue prioritizing rents in our leasing. And we could easily lease some of our vacancies if we were to be more aggressive on rental rates. We're choosing not to do that.

speaker
Himanshu Gupta

Got it. Okay. Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And maybe, you know, shifting gears on the acquisitions under Dream Summit, you know, entity, I think you mentioned 10 assets under negotiation comprising 2.5 million square feet. Can you elaborate on that? You know, what kind of pricing are you seeing in the market today on a cap basis or dollar basis?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

If these acquisitions are in the GTA, we continue to see pricing that's consistent with what you've seen from the acquisitions we completed in 2023 and pricing that is consistent with some other transactions that have been completed in the market by some of our peers that you would have seen late last year, some large transactions announced. both on a price per square foot basis and cap rate. From a mark-to-market cap rate perspective, we're seeing kind of high six range in terms of what we can achieve on a spot market rent over capital value.

speaker
Himanshu Gupta

Got it. Okay. And is it fair to say that, you know, like Dream Industrial will be a bit quiet on the acquisition front and Maybe acquisitions would be more in the dream summit, JB, in that venture?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

I think that's fair overall. We continue allocating capital for new acquisitions through our private ventures for various reasons that we've talked about, including the additional returns we're generating from our property management platform. For Dream Industrial's balance sheet, we have other capital allocation priorities, specifically our completion of our development program and projects that are currently underway. We don't exclude the possibility of pursuing strategic acquisitions. That would be 100% for Dream Industrial's account. However, the bar is relatively high given the conflicting capital priorities.

speaker
Himanshu Gupta

Got it. Okay, thank you. Maybe the last question is on the new supply in GTA. Obviously, a fair bit of supply got delivered in Q4. And, I mean, if I look at your Courtney Park development, I mean, you achieved like $20 rents, 4% escalator. That's very, very strong pricing. Will pricing like this encourage more new supply in the market? So can you comment on the development pipeline you're seeing for this year?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

There's been indeed some product delivered in the second half of 2023. The number that we think is much more interesting is the level of speculative activity currently in the market. What we see right now is that there's about $9 million per feet under speculative construction in the GTA, which represents roughly 1% of inventory, and that's arguably a low number, both in historic context and in the context of other major industrial markets in North America. We expect that the level of speculative construction activity will remain low for 2024, and new speculative starts will remain low, which will translate into strong occupier fundamentals. When it comes to pricing on new supply, we continue to see a range in the market. private developers who would be prioritizing occupancy over rate, and there are institutional groups who are developing or have delivered products who are prioritizing rate. So there's a range in the market, and we generally don't think that it's going to have a – one way or the other, the impact on the market is not going to be significant or long-lasting, given the deliveries that took place in 2023 were relatively low as a percentage of total stock.

speaker
Himanshu Gupta

Got it. Fair enough. I'll turn it back. Thank you so much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Brad Sturgis from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

speaker
Brad Sturgis

Hey, good morning. Just to touch on your discussion on asset sales, it sounds like there's some discussions happening right now. I'm just curious if you have a dollar amount that we could see you execute on from an asset sale or capital recycling perspective.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you, Brad. I understand the reason for the question. Obviously, it's significant input in a model. We would be providing more color on these disposal discussions as they progress, given we're in negotiations with private buyers. There's lower transaction certainty in some cases. And so we would want to advance these deals a little further before we can provide more specific guidance as to pricing parameters, timing, and quantum, so that then the modeling of it can be more precise.

speaker
Brad Sturgis

Would this all be through the wholly owned portfolio, or is there transactions that are, in terms of cap recycling, occurring through the summit GV as well?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

There's both. There's some disposal discussions within Dream Summit and on holding on portfolio as well.

speaker
Brad Sturgis

And it's not really focused on any particular market. It's just based on opportunistic transactions at this point?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Opportunistic for the most part. That's right.

speaker
Brad Sturgis

Okay. Thanks a lot.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mike Markitis from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Thank you, everybody. Two questions from my end. I apologize if I missed this. I guess maybe last year your expectation of the market sort of normalized was that 4% to 6%. I think I'm misquoting you, but 4% to 6% market rate growth going forward was a reasonable expectation or something. Certainly the assumption you guys were operating under. I'm just wondering if... how that's changed over the last several months, if at all.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you, Mike. Well, the growth expectation that we had for the market in 2003 generally materialized. We've seen that mid-single-digit pace of rental growth across our key markets, even higher for some nodes or sub-markets. Going forward, We remain encouraged by the level of speculative supply that we just commented on. And so we think that the pace of rental growth will reaccelerate in the second half of 24, early 25. As to the outlook for the next couple of quarters, it's really hard to predict. But when we look at supply-demand dynamics in the GTA in particular, they are made pretty healthy.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Okay, that's great. Thank you for that. And then just, Lennis, I think you had mentioned you were talking about the remaining debt maturities that you have coming due, and specifically the Series B, and I think you said 4% to 4.5% was where it sits today. But you also said that you think you can refinance that at or better. So I'm just wondering what type of financing you're contemplating here. If you could give us a little bit more color, that would be helpful.

speaker
Linus Kwon

Yeah, sure. So... We would look to ideally replace that with unsecured debt. So we're looking at some various options. As I mentioned, unsecured term debt, potentially accessing the unsecured bond market. It's currently swapped to euros. So euro equivalent rate would be low fours that we're seeing today. Unswapped, so Canadian term debt. probably in the low fives. So we're still seeing 100 basis points difference there. So that's sort of where we're coming at with the mid-fours or better average rate on refinancing this one.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Okay, so I guess the swap rate into euros has improved materially over the past three to six months, sounds like.

speaker
Linus Kwon

Sorry, I couldn't catch what you said there.

speaker
Mike Markitis

No, just the equivalent euro swap rate seems to have increased materially with the past several months.

speaker
Linus Kwon

Yes, it's come down maybe 50 basis points or so in the last few months, yes.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Okay, and this last one for me. On your mid-single-digit FFO growth guidance, does that contemplate any acquisitions or dispositions, or is it existing portfolios?

speaker
Linus Kwon

No, just existing portfolio and, you know, the developments that have been completed and leased up, the impact of that's in there as well.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Okay. That's very helpful. That's it for me. Thanks so much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Shamaya Saeed from CIBC. Please go ahead.

speaker
Shamaya Saeed

Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the Mississauga deal you did in the quarter and getting the 4%. escalators obviously for a premium location. Just any thoughts around your ability to push 4% escalators on tenants more broadly and if you see that coming down at all based on just macro level softening?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you, Sumaya. We consistently achieve in around 4% escalators across our leasing in the GTA. In some cases, it's 4.5 to 5 on smaller units, full energy units. We generally see 4 to 4.5 being the market range. As with rental rates, we do see that some groups out there would be looking to do as low as 3.5, and there's groups out there who would be pushing as high as 5. that 4% range on our leasing.

speaker
Shamaya Saeed

Okay, so no change there. I also wanted to clarify just what kind of lease-up timeframe you are reflecting in your same property NOI outlook. I think, as you mentioned, occupancy likely grows in H2, so would that suggest you would be fully addressing the existing vacancy by the end of the year?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

The target is to address most of it by the end of the year. Having said that, the occupancy on average will remain steady for 2024. That's part of our guidance.

speaker
Shamaya Saeed

Thank you.

speaker
Operator

I'll turn it back. Thank you. The next question is from Sam Damiani from TD Collin. Please go ahead.

speaker
Sam Damiani

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. First question, I guess just on the guidance for same property in the mid-single digits. I assume that captures the drop in occupancy that we've seen over the last couple of quarters. I'm just wondering when you see occupancy gains being a positive contributor to same property NOI growth?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Yeah, as Glenn has commented, Sam, we are generally expecting some optimistic gains towards the second half of the year in terms of the guidance, and then obviously on a run rate basis beyond that, they will contribute more into 2025.

speaker
Sam Damiani

So is it fair to say the same property and a wide growth stat that you'll report each quarter this year might be a little below average in the first part of the year and then above average in the latter part of the year?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

We expect that the pace will accelerate through the year and on a run rate basis. Not that we're providing guidance into 2025. It will strengthen towards the second half of 2024 and into 2025 as well.

speaker
Sam Damiani

Gotcha. And is that guidance pretty much the same for both Canada and Europe or Is there a big difference in that mid-single-digit guidance for 2024?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Canada is a bit higher than Europe, generally speaking, as we commented.

speaker
Sam Damiani

Okay. And then just on the acquisitions, the Dream Summit JV, is that still a 10% stake for the REIT?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

We are targeting, for the time being, to stay at 10%. That's right.

speaker
Sam Damiani

And I guess last question for me, I guess in the GTA, but perhaps Montreal as well, are you getting any more pushback from tenants on rent, on the level of rent that you're asking versus a year or so ago?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Of course, it's a negotiation with our occupiers. And there are more options available to occupiers now than 18 months ago. which is healthy. However, frequently we see that occupiers would look at the market and come back to staying put because it's cheaper and they don't need to incur moving costs, new setup costs, et cetera, et cetera. But generally speaking, occupiers see more options and that informs the discussions that we are having with them.

speaker
Sam Damiani

Makes sense. Okay, thank you. That's great, and I'll turn it back.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. Once again, please press star one if you have a question. And the next question is from Pommy Burr from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Pommy Burr

Thanks. Good morning. Just coming back to the 2024 FFO guidance, Can you maybe just clarify, and I'm not sure if you mentioned it, but how you see leverage shaping up for the year and whether the guidance incorporate any equiditions through the ATM?

speaker
Linus Kwon

So, leverage would be consistent with current levels on both a net debt to assets and debt to EBITDA basis, largely consistent for the full year. and no issuances on the ATM that were assumed in there.

speaker
Pommy Burr

Got it. I wanted to just come back to the occupancy drop in the quarter. Can you maybe just provide some additional colour or background on that slippage? I'm curious as well, are you seeing any longer periods to get leasing done or maybe some notable differences regionally?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you, Pami. We are seeing the lease-up times are longer, especially as we are still pushing to achieve market-leading rates on this vacancy. The occupancy drop is a function of a to get back in Spain that we're working through refurbishment of that space and lease up. Again, some anticipated vacancy in France where we had one occupier change the setup of their operations and give back about 180,000 square feet. We've re-let some of it already. and are working with two occupiers to take the balance. We got about 100,000 square feet in Ontario. That was non-anticipated. The in-place tenant was struggling towards the second half of 23, so we're working through releasing that, and we'll achieve better rent than what that previous tenant was paying, so in the long run, it's going to be beneficial for the asset, and the overall cash flow profile of the business. But in the meantime, yeah, we're seeing some vacancy and some downtime on that particular space. So there's a few pockets. As we commented before, occupancy will fluctuate in the mid to high 90% range for us across the board. And, yeah, we continue prioritizing rates. For example, on that particular space that I just mentioned in the GTA, it's about 100,000 square feet. We had the opportunity to lease it at about 10% spread relative to prior rents, which, from our perspective, was a bit of a concession, and we chose to continue pushing for higher rents. So we could have had at least... a month ago, but we decided to continue pursuing rates. So, moving occupancy in many cases is the easiest lever for us to pull, but it may not be the right long-term decision. It will translate into short-term gains at the expense of long-term growth of the cash flow of the business.

speaker
Pommy Burr

Thank you. No, that's really helpful. Just on the last one for me, on the Dream Summit JV acquisitions in Q4 and post-Q4, the ones that are in the works, I think you mentioned 10 properties or just over 2 million square feet. What's the total value of those from a transaction standpoint? And I'm curious as well if the growth profile is similar to that. sort of mid-single-digit same property NOI growth that you've cited for your 2024 guidance?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

The growth profile is similar to what we see across the board. In some cases, higher as we're buying properties with meaningful mark-to-market potential. There's a couple of assets there that are more stabilized with them steady growth opportunities. As far as value, quantum, we will be providing more color as these transactions advance. Some of these are in exclusive negotiations, some of them are under contract, so we still need to complete our work on due diligence or negotiations in some cases. For now, for sizing, we would just encourage you to use the capital values that you've seen from us in 2023 on the acquisitions that we've completed to then extrapolate onto this set of acquisitions.

speaker
Pommy Burr

Okay. I'll turn it back. Thanks very much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Matt Kornack from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matt Kornack

Hey guys, notwithstanding your comments on prioritizing rate over occupancy, you've had pretty good retention in the Canadian portfolio, should we expect that that, and I think you mentioned in your commentary that there's some upcoming potential non-renewals, but is that in the Canadian portfolio? Is it still largely Europe where retention has been lower?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Indeed, Matt, retention has been pretty high for us in 2023, higher than historic run rate. We would expect that the retention will be a bit lower this year than 2023, but consistent overall with historic averages. As you know, we disclosed long-term averages over 10 plus years. in our investor presentation, so 2024 will likely be consistent with that long-term average. Non-renewables that we are expecting are not specific to any region. It's more space-specific.

speaker
Matt Kornack

And then just on the development deliveries, You give good disclosure as to the yield on cost and the timing. Should we just assume that the NOI comes in over the average of that period? And is there anything, and I know obviously there's some lease up from assets that were previously delivered, but I don't know, Linus, if you have the number offhand as to what the contribution would be from development NOI-wise this year?

speaker
Linus Kwon

Yeah, it's going to be in sort of throughout the year. So I don't have the number offhand on the contribution. Obviously, as they're delivered and leased and then occupied, that's when they would start contributing. So it'll be kind of over the second half of the year.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Math, for modeling purposes, for run rate modeling, you can look at our development disclosure and look at projects that are complete. We disclose the cost of complete. We disclose the yield on cost achieved. So, obviously, they will contribute on a run rate basis into 2024. And then for projects that are delivering within 2024, As we commented before, lease-up time is usually about six months post-completion. So, again, for modeling purposes, you could use roughly this time frame.

speaker
Matt Kornack

Okay, so a bit of a lag to what is – like the numbers that are disclosed are completion. They're not necessarily expected economic occupancy. Completion, that's correct. Correct. And then just last one for me with regards to, I mean, this is not an insignificant amount of space or sorry, value of the transactions that you're doing in Dream Summit on our numbers, something approaching $700 million of assets. Is that, what's the nature of the seller at this point that would be disposing of these assets? And in terms of targeting kind of value add versus newer, how should we think about that? what the profile of what you're purchasing is.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Yeah, thank you, Matt. We see a range. We see private groups, private institutional groups, asset managers selling assets as part of normal lifecycle of their vehicles. It's a value-added fund that was established five, six years ago. They've done their work and they're exiting. We see some leaseback opportunities. It's a pretty broad range. When it comes to the profile of the assets, we commented earlier on the growth expectation. We underwrite all of these opportunities on a total return basis and whether they are stabilized or have some value add to do. we want to make sure that they get to a total return number that is compelling, and that's how we price them and approach these opportunities.

speaker
Matt Kornack

That makes sense. And one very quick follow-up, just on the Montreal port asset, it seems like you've gone the route of replacing it as is, as opposed to redeveloping it. Is there a prospect or timeline as to when that would have a tenant in place?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Yeah, thank you, Matt. We have a few discussions that are ongoing. We also have some user acquisition interests which we're following up on. That could be fruitful and could materialize at some point this year. We have not excluded the redevelopment possibility and I expect that by the time we report either Q1 or Q2 results this year, we'll provide more color as to the direction for this asset.

speaker
Matt Kornack

Okay. Sounds good. Thanks for the color.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Mike Markides from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Thanks, Insari, for getting in the way of everybody's lunch here. Alex, if you could just give us, you know, you talk about sort of the leasing dynamics that you're seeing in the GTA and GMA, and maybe, again, I missed this commentary, but how would that compare to what you're seeing in Europe, you know, just in terms of the spec supply you're seeing in the GTA and how that makes you feel good about rank growth this year and accelerating potentially into 2025? What's the dynamic in your key markets in Europe?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you, Mike. Well, Europe is a It's a big place. We see different dynamics in different markets, but also we see different dynamics in different segments of the industrial market. So starting with Spain, we see in Spain maybe a little bit more supply than we'd like. So that supply is getting absorbed, and so... We're actively watching that, unlike the market where we'll be allocating more capital because of this kind of supply levels. When it comes to France, Germany, and the Netherlands, broadly speaking, supply-demand is balanced, and we're not really concerned about the pace of lease-up or competition from new developments. And in terms of segments of the market, we see continued bifurcation and fundamentals between what we would call urban logistics assets and big box logistics. Roughly half of our portfolio in Europe is what we would categorize as urban logistics, and the rest is larger box. Larger box has historically seen More supply, albeit moderate levels, it's still more compared to supply in urban locations. And as a result, we've seen already rents for urban assets exceed rents for, or the pace of growth for urban assets exceeded the big box by a factor of 1.1 to 1.3 times, depending on the market. And we expect to continue seeing that as there's very little to no supply of urban industrial smaller bay product.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Okay, that's very detailed and useful. So I guess no incremental capital to Spain. It sounds like France, Germany, and the Netherlands, again, correct me if I'm reading you incorrectly, but supply demand and balance and the opportunities for growth, notwithstanding bifurcation, which we do see, I think you would say we've seen the GTA and GMA markets to some degree as well. Those markets, are they as good or better or worse than what you're seeing in sort of Ontario and Montreal?

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

We would continue to rank GTA as one of the best markets globally for industrial, with the depth and liquidity of the market and supply-demand dynamics. So it's very hard to find another market like this globally. But the absolute levels of rent in Europe are low, and despite the rental growth that we've seen, especially in 22, first half of 23. In some markets, it was as high as 40%. The absolute levels of rent remain low, and so we expect that there's more runway for growth in Europe, especially in the segments of the market that we just talked about.

speaker
Mike Markitis

Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Sanikov.

speaker
Alexander Sanikov

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for your interest in our business. We look forward to reporting on our progress in the first quarter of 2024. Goodbye.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

Disclaimer

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