Dream Residential Real Estate Investment Trust

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Please stand by. Your meeting is about to begin. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the DREAM Residential REIT second quarter conference call for Thursday, August 3, 2023. During this call, management of DREAM Residential REIT may make statements containing forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Dream Residential REACH control that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed or in or implied by such forward-looking information. Additional information about these assumptions and risks and uncertainties is contained in Dream Residential REACH filings with securities regulators including its MD&A. These filings are also available on Dream Residential REIT's website at www.dreamresidentialreit.ca. Later in the presentation, we will have a question and answer session. To queue up for a question, press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Your host for today will be Mr. Brian Pauls, Chief Executive Officer of Dream Residential REIT. Mr. Pauls, please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Dream Residential REIT's second quarter 2023 conference call. Speaking with me today are Scott Schumann, our Chief Operating Officer, and Derek Lau, our Chief Financial Officer. We are pleased with this quarter's results and report NOI for Q2 2023 of $6.1 million and FFO per unit of $0.18. Both are consistent with the previous IPO forecast. Following the second quarter, we have now concluded our inaugural year and 12-month IPO forecast. We have successfully delivered NOI that was consistent with our IPO forecast and FFO per unit of 66 cents, which is a penny ahead of forecast. Our in-house ability to add value and drive growth continues to be a contributor to our financial performance. Broader Sunbelt markets are showing signs of moderation with new supply pressures. However, our rents have continued to grow across all markets and the new supply is largely geared toward luxury-style apartments compared to our focus on garden-style communities. We remain confident in our ability to drive rental rate growth, and our value-add initiatives continue to be a differentiator. We will continue to use our strong cash flow and balance sheet to invest in our properties to improve quality and facilitate rent growth. In addition, with nearly 30% of our portfolio rents from Cincinnati, we have exposure to one of the strongest rent growth areas in the United States. With the interest rate environment that appears that it will be higher for longer, our portfolio is well positioned to remain strong during this time. Our balance sheet is safe with low leverage combined with a lengthy and staggered debt maturity profile. We remain focused on maintaining balance sheet flexibility and investing capital prudently. I will now turn it over to Scott to provide an operations update for the quarter. Go ahead, Scott.

Thank you, Brian. Management is excited to report that we have completed our first full four-quarter year of operations in line with the original IPO forecast that was finalized nearly two years ago in late 2021. Actual net operating income of $23.34 million exceeded the original forecast NOI of $23.31 million, leading to a 14% same property NOI compound annual growth rate. While operating expenses rose 5% during the forecast period, revenue increased more than 9% on an annualized basis since the original forecast was released. This is an important milestone for management and for our shareholders. In early 2022, we publicly marketed down to the dollar what the forward-looking first year post-IPO would look like. In 2023, we delivered on that forecast. Over the past 18 months of economic conditions, I think our unit holders will find this achievement reaffirming looking back and encouraging looking forward. The second quarter, standalone, ended in line with forecast net operating income of $6.1 million, improving 1% higher than Q1 while sustaining a 51% operating margin. Revenue of $11.96 million reflected a continual healthy growth rate, closing 1.8% above forecast and 2.7% higher than the first quarter. Total rental income sustained better than expected growth, driven by 8.8% renewal tradeouts and 21% value-add premiums. Year-to-date revenue of $23.6 million and NOI of $12.2 million positioned DRR to finish in the upper tier of forecast range for calendar year 2023. DRR portfolio occupancy was 94.1% on June 30th, with approximately 43 apartments underway on renovations. Even with nearly 2% of available apartments intentionally drafted into our high return renovation program, the DRR vacancy rate remained 130 basis points stronger than the 7.2% national vacancy rate reported by ApartmentList at the end of Q2. ApartmentList also described national year-to-date rent growth as positive 2.4% and year-over-year rent growth as flat. By comparison, Dream Residential grew rents 3.9% over the first six months and held double digits at positive 10.2% year-over-year rent growth. Spring season lease tradeouts elevated each month of the quarter. 8.4% blended tradeouts in June pulled the quarter average of blended tradeouts up to 7.2% overall. The Midwest is in the news for some of the nation's leading rent growth. Our Cincinnati portfolio reflects that with region-leading 10.1% blended tradeouts for the quarter, 10.1% year-over-year rent growth, and 3.1% higher rent than Q1, only three months earlier. Our Dallas-Fort Worth portfolio maintained its resilience with 4.9% blended tradeouts and 1.7% rent growth over the quarter. DFW is holding well in the aggregate with positive 9.5% year-over-year rent growth across our communities, and July rents are pushing upwards. DRR's Oklahoma assets set the mean with 7.2% blended trade-outs, 2.9% quarterly rent growth, and portfolio-leading 10.9% annual rent growth. Portfolio-wide in-place rent increased $104, or 10.2%, from Q2 2022 up to $1,122 per suite, sustaining 2.5% quarter-over-quarter rent growth to start the strong leasing season. During the second quarter, DRR's internal property management team introduced across the platform new lease and revenue management software that integrates artificial intelligence into our on-site leasing operations. The AI-based application provides more advanced optimization and forecasting tools, as well as improved value-add integrations directly to the fingertips of our community directors and regional leaders. We have already observed fluid adaptations to dynamic market conditions and increased asking rents, which better reflect our value-add rental growth premiums. Shareholders understand that one of DRR's execution strengths and value drivers is the vertically integrated renovation and construction capability. Year-to-date, our internal value-add teams have upgraded 203 apartments from classic condition into modern finished suites. Over the first six months of 2023, average renovation trade-out premiums exceeded $230 21% higher than expiring leases. In our Sunbelt markets, upgrade return margins lifted above our 12% to 16% window into the high teens, even as organic growth normalized, making it even more compelling case to incrementally reposition our communities. Our experience affirms that renovations create better living experiences, improve property conditions and resident demographics, increase net income, and boost asset value. We project to start over 100 new suite renovations during Q3 and target an estimated 400 by year-end. DRR will continue to focus on operational excellence and value creation. Multifamily across the United States is showing signs of stabilization. The supply pipeline is strong, and yet net absorption rebound is positive in each of the past two quarters. Vacancy and rent growth appear to be steadying near long-term norms. At the same time, new permits and construction starts have been declining, and for-sale housing unaffordability set new highs once again. With historic levels of new supply absorbing now and economic conditions pointing more households towards for-lease solutions, apartment homes in communities like ours and markets like ours remain resilient in the near term and positioned to outperform over the long run. The transaction market persists as a standoff between buyers and sellers. Multifamily accounted for the largest share of commercial real estate transactions, but its volume is estimated 65% lower than Q2 last year and about 30% below the quarterly average from 2013 to 2019. We continue to actively evaluate opportunities in both our existing and our target growth markets. Management is excited to have achieved our IPO forecast and is pleased with the accomplishments and performance over the first half of the year. We project 2023 to finish in the upper tier of our initial guidance range from upper $23 million to mid $24 million of net operating income. In addition, the state of Texas recently passed property tax revisions that are expected to positively benefit the DRR portfolio this calendar year. DRR projects annual net operating income in the form of reduced 2023 property taxes amounting to between $100,000 and $200,000 more. The legislative provisions are expected to be passed by public vote approval in November, and once the final 2023 millage rates are set during Q4, final adjustments will be added to NOI at the end of the year. Management's year-end forecast does not yet include this favorable upward addition to net operating income that is now likely to be booked during Q4. DRR continues to focus on operations, value creation, and delivering strong results for unit holders. Our first full year is a testament to that business plan. It is now a pleasure to introduce Derek Lau, our Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. Financial results for the second quarter of 2023 were consistent with expectation. Deleted funds from operations was $0.18 per unit and consistent with our IPO forecast. For the quarter ended June 30, 2023, net operating income was $6.1 million, which was in line with the IPO forecast. NOI margin was 51.1% compared to the IPO forecast of 52.2%. Operating revenue of $12 million was approximately $200,000 higher than forecast. Operating expenses, excluding the impact of IFRIC in the IPO forecast. This was largely due to higher travel and personnel costs. Interest and other income of $79,000 was driven by higher interest rates on cash balances. IFRS NAV at June 30, 2023 is $14.85 per unit, compared to $14.73 in the prior quarter. The IFRS value of our properties is $425 million, or a 1% increase from the prior quarter and reflects $3.8 million of building improvements, partially offset by $1.4 million of fair value losses. Our IFRS cap rate increased by five basis points quarter over quarter to 5.27%. Net debt to net total assets was approximately 31% at June 30th, 2023. All of our debt remains fixed rate At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $78.4 million of liquidity, comprising $8.4 million of cash on hand and full availability of our credit facility. To date, we have purchased and canceled approximately 151,000 units, or roughly 15.5% of the total allowable under our NCIB, and an average price of $8.12. As Scott has noted, we are targeting the upper end of our NOI guidance. With that, we are expecting including acquisitions, and our current total unit count. I will now turn it back to Brian.

Thank you, Derek. I'm honored to join the DRR management team as CEO and look forward to opportunities ahead as we continue to manage the company to safely navigate the current economic environment and look to capitalize on opportunities in the future. We'd now like to open the call to questions.

Thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question and you're using a speakerphone, please lift your handset before making your selection. If you have a question, please press star 1 on your device's keypad. Please press star 1 at this time if you have a question. And the first question is from Jonathan Kelcher from TD Collin. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. First question, just on the... the mark-to-market, a little surprised to see your estimated mark-to-market increase as much as it did in the quarter. Was that consistent across your markets, or did, say, Cincinnati stand out there as well?

Good morning, Jonathan. The mark-to-market increased in Dallas-Fort Worth and Oklahoma City as our operating hubs there. As I mentioned, we have integrated new lease and revenue management software that better integrates our value-add planning. And so part of that mark-to-market change, as you can see, or we've discussed, is that in DFW and Oklahoma City where the predominant amount of our value-add is occurring, the mark-to-market increased most notably there.

Okay. So it's generally your value-add program that's driving that increase?

That's correct. And we've upgraded our software enhancement that allows our people on-site to better accommodate the value-add rent premiums, whereas previously it was being manually done. Now we have a better forecasting tool that allows us to integrate that more real-time.

Okay, that makes sense. And then just switching gears on to the acquisition side, still waiting for your first one, but I guess we're starting to see it pick up in trading volumes. Is it getting close to where you guys can start to make the math work on any acquisitions that you're looking at?

I would say it's pretty dynamic. In some weeks or months, the math gets closer. In some, it doesn't. The trading volume in Q2 was still down over 60 percent, I think near 65 percent compared to last year, and it's still down notably compared to the historic averages in the decade preceding the pandemic. So, there are still, you know, in comparison, very, very few properties trading hands. I think it increased two or three percent compared to previous Q1, but it is still fairly low. We're watching in all of our markets, including potential growth markets, but we aren't seeing anything that is compelling to act right now.

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it back. Thanks.

Thank you. The next question is from Brad Sturgis from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. Just on the... On the, I guess, the leasing spreads we're getting in Cincinnati obviously was quite good in the quarter. Does that accelerate your plans for, you know, expanding the renovation program into that market, or is it still, I guess, tracking for next year, I guess, in terms of when you would likely implement renovations in Cincinnati?

Good morning, Brad. We are evaluating several markets to introduce the value-add program into, Cincinnati being one of them. We'll make that decision probably in Q4 or maybe even the first part of Q1 based upon market conditions. As you noted, the organic rent growth in Cincinnati has been, you know, exceptional. It's in some cases mirrored or even beat out some of the sunbelt in the near term. We like that consistent growth. We've seen it for years and years now. And so we are evaluating as a value-add opportunity. But we want to continue to have a responsible and disciplined balance of our allocation of capital in the REIT.

Okay. Just to go back to the acquisition discussion there, I think last fall you referenced – you know, targeting stabilized cap rates, I think six and a half or higher. Is that still the case of where you're targeting today? Or, you know, given where we moved on the rate side of things, is that, are you targeting a higher level of stabilized yield?

I don't think our target range has changed. I think we're still targeting the upper sixes as a stabilized cap rate.

And where would cost of debt be today if you were to go into the markets?

Hi, Brad. It's interesting. Over the past couple of weeks, we've seen spreads come down and then subsequently back up. I would say that availability is fully there, and if we were to look at rates today, it would probably be 150 bps over the 10-year and similar 150 bps over the 7-year. So let's call it a mid-5 to 5.6 debt rate. Okay.

I'll turn it back. Thanks.

Thank you. The next question is from Himanshu Gupta from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Thank you and good morning. So just on the Cincinnati market, it sounds like this is one of the strongest markets for you right now. What is causing that to be? Like, why are you seeing, you know, stronger rent growth and better occupancy levels in this market?

Good morning, Himanshu. Well, I think one of the attributes across the United States right now is the supply pipeline, new supply hitting across the Sun Belt. That same new supply is not hitting in Cincinnati in the same way. There is good supply there. There is healthy supply, but it is not, you know, it's not surging, if you will. And I think that's one of the attributes there is that the healthy fundamentals that we look for in all of our markets, pro-business, favorable regulatory environment, net population migration and household growth. Those attributes are in the Cincinnati market, the Oklahoma market, and of course in our Dallas market. But we're not seeing an oversupply or a surging supply in that region.

Okay. And as we look into the next year, I mean, obviously it will face some tough comps here. Would you see, I mean, are we likely to see some moderation in this market? next year, although, you know, you're not seeing much new supply.

And, Himesh, were you referring to the Cincinnati market?

That's right, yeah. So, you know, the rent growth has been strong this year, occupancy also. So, are you going to see some moderation in the outlook for the next year for Cincinnati?

I think it is safe to say that we will not plan on double-digit rent growth sustained for, you know, for the year ahead. I think we're going to continue to see strong occupancy there. We're going to continue to see strong rent growth. I don't believe that it will be double-digit rent growth.

Okay, fair enough. And just switching gears on the acquisition or potential acquisitions there, you know, with this property tax division in Texas, would you say, you know, like Dallas and Houston and a few others will – like the Texas markets will look more attractive today than what they were before the tax ruling?

I think that certainly enhances NOI on Texas properties. That's for any Texas single-family homeowner or multi-residential homeowner, it's a benefit. We're excited about it. We believe that the property taxes in Texas have been going up at too significant of a rate It's been a detractor, and so we're very excited about that, what I would call a healthy rebalancing of the property taxes.

And just last question, the property tax revision in Texas, just to confirm, the potential benefit is not in your guidance, right, in 2023 guidance?

That's correct. It's not in our NOI guidance nor our FFO guidance.

Awesome. Thank you, guys. I'll turn back.

Thank you. Once again, please press star 1 at this time if you have a question. And the next question is from Matt Cornack from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Just quickly with regards to DFW and Oklahoma City, you're doing more renovations there, but the spread that you're getting on new leasing, I guess, was a little bit lower. than Cincinnati. But in the disclosure, you say that you're getting kind of 22% lifts on some of these renovated units. Is that just not reflected yet? And I understand your comment to Jonathan about the mark-to-market increasing. Is it just a lag effect in terms of those leases being signed versus taking possession?

Good morning, Matt. Yes, there is a lag in terms of the impact on the lease trade-outs But I would generally say this is, you know, the Sunbelt organic growth has moderated. Our value-add premiums have strengthened. So we're value-adding, you know, we value-added this year about 200 leases. We've had probably, I'm just, we've had significantly more new leases turn over than that. So it's a proportional blend of new leases. that are organic and a smaller portion of new leases that are value-add trade-out. When you blend that, you get to that roughly mid-5% new lease trade-out. And that's largely driven by the moderation in the Sun Belt on organic growth.

And I guess we've seen your larger peers with exposure to some of those markets say that kind of, New leasing spreads are in the low single digits. They're still positive, but I'd say very low single digits. Is that consistent with what you're seeing, or are you doing a bit better even without renovating some of these suites?

I would say overall we're doing a bit better than where the average. I think apartment list showed the nation at flat year over year. I think it showed Dallas pretty close to that, and so we're exceeding what the benchmarks are usually listed at, even organically.

Okay, that's helpful. And then on the ancillary and other revenue line items, I think this quarter they were a bit higher. Should we be taking those down, or is $1.4 million or so a good run rate? I think to get to your guidance, you'd probably have to take them down a bit.

I think that's fair. I think if you take the average over the course of the year, that would be a better run rate for ancillary income.

Okay, perfect. Thanks, guys.

Thank you. Once again, please press star 1 at this time if you have a question. And the next question is from Lillian Smith from Lillian Financials. Please go ahead.

Hi there. I'm just looking to a lot of news reports on Dream lately. Of course, this is the the U.S. market, but just wondering if there is any concern over possibility of something similar over there, a rent strike or something like that, and what might be some of the mitigation.

Brian Goulden Yeah. Hi, Lillian. It's Brian. It's good to speak with you this morning. It's not likely to happen in these markets in these We have not seen that in the United States. I think that's related to office that you're referring to. No, I mean, Scott, you can comment on that. We don't have rent controls in any of the markets that we're in, and I think the strike is related to that in Canada. Nothing to do with the U.S. markets that we're in, and the structure of the government there is very different, so we're not likely to see that there. Does that answer your question, Lillian?

A little bit. I do think, yes, I think from what I've read, it's a rent control concern, right? But I have also seen U.S. articles where, you know, people are calling for stuff that are similar just because of how high the rent increases are going, I suppose. So even, I think, without the rent control thing and a different government, I feel like there might still be some concern over if people are getting too angry.

Lillian, this is Scott. Thank you for your question. So our portfolio really caters to what we would call the middle, the median income, and it's a very wide swath. There are about 40 to 50 million renters in the United States, and the vast majority, about 80% of them are centered in our economic bracket where we're providing housing to residents. Our houses are naturally affordable. We don't have rent control in any of our markets, and we don't have rent control in any of our submarkets. In some cases, some of the state governments where we operate actually have legislation that makes it very difficult for rent control to pass at the state level. So this is how we evaluate markets, and that's an attribute of all of our markets right now is a lower, more favorable regulatory environment.

And certainly, Lillian, just to expand on that, our properties are quite affordable, particularly compared to rents in Toronto where you're seeing the strikes you're referencing. So I don't think it's an apples-to-apples comparison.

Have there been any discussion at all on the off chance that it did happen? What are some of the strategies to keep going?

Strategies to keep going if range control were to enter our markets?

Well, that and also like what if, you know, everyone got fed up and did a run strike even without a favorable regulatory environment?

I think one thing that is important is that there's about 50 cities in the United States that have 1.5 million people or greater. We're operating in three of them. We're operating in three that are pro-business, have population migration, have a very pro-growth mindset. And so our residents are excited to live where they live. There's competition, but it's a healthy competition. The things that might be in the newspaper are just not a factor in our operational hubs.

Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Dean Wilkinson from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Pitcher question, Brian. I mean, you've built a whole ton of multifamily down in the States. Obviously, the supply that's coming into the Sunbelt is because levered development yields still work. What has to happen for that to kind of come off the rails? Is it just massive cost inflation on the build side, or do you think it's just rents continuing to drive down, and where do you see that kind of penciling out and sort of falling to?

Yes, sure, Dean. You know, what we see is there's been a lot of inflation, certainly labor costs, material costs, land costs, debt costs in particular have gone up a lot. So we see projects that are in process right now completing, but we do see a pretty significant drop-off in future supply. Supply has come in in the markets you mentioned and the markets that Scott mentioned in his earlier remarks. But we see that moderating as we go forward. We see maybe even pockets of opportunity where merchant builders have been – are on construction loans or floating rate loans, closed-end funds that are maybe higher levered, that we may see some opportunities for acquisitions. But we see it moderating significantly because of all those inflationary pressures. Dean, there's certainly negative leverage in today's environment when you look at low cap rates that you build to versus financing rates. And so we see that being a downward pressure on new supply over the longer term. So there's supply coming, but we see that short-lived as the pipeline behind it is slow.

Right. And so then I guess the natural extension of that is that the downward pressure, for lack of a better term, that we're seeing on rental rates probably subsides. And if we look out 18 months, two years, whatever the number may be, you start to see a bit more of a positive trajectory, but perhaps not what we were seeing two, three years ago.

I think that's right. We do see it moderating. We do see the cost of homeownership increasing for all the same reasons. There are big inflationary pressures there. Mortgages cost more on homes that cost more, so it becomes less affordable to buy homes. Therefore, there will be more renters, and we see a lot of health and long runway in our asset class.

Fantastic. That's all I had. Thanks, guys.

Thank you. The next question is from Saram Srinivas from Cormark Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Hey, Brian. Just going back to Dean's question on construction, if you were to kind of map out broader construction costs today in your markets for new builds, how would that pan out on a post-graphy basis?

Okay. Yeah, replacement costs have certainly gone up a lot, Saram. We're seeing there's a widening gap in terms of certainly our cost basis to replacement cost. And so, you know, it follows Dean's question and the previous discussion we were just having. We see that putting a bigger barrier to entry of new supply. It depends on the per square foot or the per unit or replacement cost varies pretty significantly market to market, even neighborhood to neighborhood, depending on land cost. But right now, what we're seeing are development yields don't necessarily justify new construction to start it today. And it's primarily driven by financing costs, but land prices have been stubbornly high. Land in the markets we're in is held by very stable owners. There's certainly no distress there, so we don't see a a significant pullback in land prices. So what we're seeing is a significant kind of long-term pullback of supply.

That's great. Thanks, Brian. I'll turn it back. Yep.

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Pauls.

We'd like to thank everyone for participating in today's call. We look forward to speaking again soon. In the meantime, stay safe. Take care.

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.