European Residential Real Estate Investment Trust

Q4 2021 Earnings Conference Call

2/18/2022

spk00: Hello and welcome to the European Residential Real Estate Investment Trust fourth quarter and year end conference call. My name is Alex and I will be coordinating the call today. If you'd like to ask a question at the end of the presentation, you can press star one on your telephone keypads. If you'd like to withdraw your question, you may press star two. I will now hand over to your host, Philip Burns, CEO. Over to you, Philip.
spk05: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that during our conference call this morning, we may include forward-looking statements about our future financial and operating results. I direct your attention to slide two and our other regulatory filings. Joining me today is our CFO, Stephen Koh. After I provide an update on our operational progress during the quarter, Stephen will provide an overview of our financial results and positions. We are proud to be reporting to you today a third year of strong and increasingly profitable operational and financial results across all of ERES' portfolio metrics and business benchmarks. Starting with slide four, on the external growth front, ERES gathered significant momentum throughout the year and closed on five separate acquisitions of an aggregate 499 residential suites across 13 properties, which increased our suite count by 8% since the prior year end. This contributed to assets under management increasing by 26%. In addition to acquisitions and capital expenditure, this included 195 million euros in fair value gains that we recognized for the year end, December 31st, 2021, representing a 15% increase in market value on the same property basis. This was driven by steady and strong portfolio fundamentals resulting in a compression of implied capitalization rates to a weighted average of 3.33% across the REIT's residential properties, which is down 28 basis points from Q4 of 2020. The significant fair value appreciation also reflects the successful execution of the REIT's value-adding capital expenditure program, as well as its exceptional operating metrics, including its continually increasing rental revenues, expanding NOI margins, consistently high occupancy, all of which will be presented in detail shortly. That being said, our market capitalization and public vote increased only modestly by 8% and 9% respectively compared to the prior year and exhibiting the persistent disconnect between eREZ's underlying intrinsic value and its unit price on the TSX, while simultaneously continuing to provide the opportunity for investors to secure the trifecta of value growth and income slide 5 contains an overview of business development during the fourth quarter of 2021 starting with the fair value of our investment properties which increased significantly as i mentioned to 1.86 billion euros at year end which is comprised of 1.76 billion euros in multi-residential properties that constitutes 94 of our portfolio value with the remaining six percent represented by the 100 million euros in commercial properties, which we have located in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands. This also includes our latest acquisition of multi-residential properties in the Netherlands, with three closing in the fourth quarter of 2021 for a combined purchase price of 115.5 million, excluding costs and fees, representing an aggregate of 362 residential suites across the different separate properties. This growth trajectory already is continuing into the new year, with the REIT entering into a forward purchase agreement on the 29th of December 2021 to acquire a 201-suite residential property and further closing on a 45-suite residential property on January 31, 2022, both located in the Netherlands. In terms of financing activity and liquidity, during the fourth quarter, we secured mortgage financing for all of our Q4 acquisitions. which was cross-collateralized in combination with the REIT's previous 2021 acquisitions, as well as refinancing of certain existing properties, and the total principal amount of 156.6 million euros. Further to that, we amended and renewed our revolving credit facility, which provides access to up to 100 million euros With undrawn capacity on that facility, combined with cash on hand and our pipeline agreement with CAPREIT that provides access to 165 million euros to acquire properties, the REIT had almost 200 million euros of immediately available acquisition liquidity at year end. Our very strong operating results continued through to the end of the year, culminating in annual FFO and AFO per unit of 15.3 euro cents and 13.6 euro cents as of December 31st, 2021, up 13% and 12% compared to the prior year, powerfully evidencing the REIT's overall accreted financial performance that Stephen will discuss in detail. Slide six contains a high level overview of the key characteristics of our latest acquisitions which closed during the most recent quarter. The Willem property located in Rotterdam in the Randstad region of the Netherlands was acquired on November 30th and is comprised of 63 residential units which are 100% owned by the REIT and currently 94% occupied as at year end. The property which was acquired for 19.1 million euros excluding transaction costs and fees It's situated in a neighborhood characterized by its green space and parks, many nearby amenities, including schools and shopping centers, and with direct access to downtown Rotterdam via road or metro. The Panorama Portfolio was also acquired on November 30th, 2021, and includes one newly built property containing 120 suites located in Reisvig and a separate 42-suite property located in Alnir. The portfolio was acquired for a total purchase price of 60.1 million euros, excluding cost and fee, and is 100% liberalized and 98% occupied at December 31st. The REITs acquisition, which recently closed on January 31st, 2022, acquired a further 45 residential suites, three commercial units, and 26 parking spaces in the same newly built Wrightsville building, bringing the REITs ownership of this building to 83%. while the Almere building is 100% owned by the REIT. The OCTA portfolio is comprised of eight properties containing an aggregate 137 single-family homes located throughout the Netherlands. The portfolio, which was acquired on the 22nd of December for a combined purchase price of $36.3 million, is 100% owned by the REIT and 99% occupied as of December 31st, 2021. This acquisition increases the single-family home component of our portfolio, which is currently at approximately 35%, that we believe adds further positive diversification in addition to our regulated, non-regulated, and RANSVAD, non-RANSVAD diversification. All of the recently acquired properties are strategically well-located nearby other assets within eREZ's existing portfolio, allowing for operational efficiency and synergies with the properties being managed by eREZM, our existing asset and property manager established in the Netherlands. On slide seven, you can see that our strong operating results accelerated throughout the year end, ending December 31st, 2021. At the forefront of this, rental revenues have increased significantly. Total portfolio occupied average monthly rent increased by 5% from 896 euros at Q4 2020 to 941 euros at December 31st, 2021. On a stabilized basis, occupied AMR increased by 3.8% versus the prior year end. The increases were attributable to the REIT's trifold rent maximization strategy comprised of its value-adding CapEx expenditure program, including the conversion of regulated suites to liberalized, as well as increasing rents on indexation and turnover. Regarding the latter, for the three months and year end of December 31st, 2021, turnover was 3% and 13.9% respectively, with average uplift of 19.1% and 16.3%. This compares exceptionally well to average rental uplift of only 12.3% and 9.9% on fairly stable turnover of 13.4% and 14.2% in the three months and year ended December 31, 2020. Rental upwards were significantly higher on conversions at 56.7% and 45.2% for the current quarter and year, compared to 49% and 36.8% for the three months and year-end of December 31, 2020. As you can see, the REIT's achievement of growth in rental revenues at the high end of its target range of 3% to 4% demonstrate its ability to consistently and profitably operate in a complex and fluid regulatory regime. Moving to slide eight, occupancy for our commercial properties remained stable at 100% at December 31st, 2021 and 2020. Occupancy for the residential properties increased to 98.6% at 31st December, 2021, compared to 98.3% for the prior year. On top of that increase, a significant portion of residential vacancy in the current period, 76%, is due to renovation which will provide further rental uplifts once the suites are leased. Further, given the diversified nature of the REIT's asset mix and tenant profile, alongside the ongoing strength and resilience of the Dutch economy, it is also important to report that the rent collections and vacancy rates have continued to transcend the challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. For the three months and year end of December 31st, 2021, net operating income increased by 13% and 12%, respectively, due to the contribution from acquisitions, higher monthly rents on stabilized property, and strong cost control. Total portfolio NOI margin, accordingly, increased to 78.1% through the fourth quarter of 2021, demonstrating significant margin expansion that the REIT considers will be indicative of long-run performance, which Stephen will discuss shortly. This is further supported by the fact that the REIT's property operating costs are largely insulated from inflation. Tenants are responsible for the majority of their own energy and other utility costs. The REIT has no employees and therefore no wage costs, and property management fees are a fixed percentage of operating revenues. Slide 9 serves as a reminder of the inherent and unique diversification within our high-quality portfolio. you can see that over 40% of our current properties are located in the high-growth conurbation of the Randstad, with approximately 25% directly located in the cities of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht. The rest of the portfolio is situated in smaller urban areas throughout the country. Approximately 35% of our portfolio is comprised of single-family homes, as I previously mentioned, also known as Dutch row houses, a segment which represents an additionally unique contributor to our portfolio mix. We also are nearly evenly divided between regulated and liberalized with a modest weighting toward liberalized, providing balanced growth in rents on turnover and indexation, as well as the opportunities to liberalize more suites. We are diversified by the number of bedrooms, ensuring we meet the demand for smaller units as well as for families. And with approximately half of the current portfolio constructed since 1990, providing an average building age of under 40 years, we have lower ongoing repairs and maintenance costs, thus driving higher margins and asset values. With that, I will now turn the call over to Steven.
spk06: Thank you, Philip. As you can see on slide 11, operationally, we are continuing to raise the bar higher as we accelerate forward. On the total portfolio, operating revenues increased by 11% for the quarter ended December 31st, 2021, primarily due to accretive acquisitions since the prior year period and the increase in monthly rents on the stabilized portfolio, as Philip has already discussed. NOI increased by an even greater 13% for the three months ended December 31st, 2021. Likewise, driven by the higher operating revenues, which I just mentioned, as well as strong cost control. Property operating costs decreased as a percentage of operating revenues due in part to the recognition of a landlord levy rebate from the government. In aggregate, this drove a strong increase in total portfolio NOI margin to 78.1% for the fourth quarter, up significantly from 77.1% in the prior year period. Excluding the impact of the landlord levy rebate, NOI margin on the total portfolio still increased to 77.3% for Q4. This all translated into accretive returns for unit holders, which have continued to strengthen during the past year ended December 31st, 2021. eRES realized very significant increases in FFO per unit and AFFO per unit for the quarter ended December 31st, 2021, up by 17% and 19% respectively compared to the prior year periods. Moving to slide 12, we can see how the REIT superior financial results strengthened not only during Q4, but throughout all of 2021. NOI increased by 12%, fueled by accretive acquisitions, strong rental growth, and margin expansion, as just discussed for our quarterly returns. This supported the strong increase in NOI margin to 77.4% for fiscal 2021, compared to 76.2% in the prior year. Excluding the impact of the landlord levy rebate from the government, NOI margin on the total portfolio still increased to 76.6% for the current year end. Importantly, effective January 1st, 2022, the landlord levy tax rate has been reduced and there is potential for its permanent abolishment in the medium term. At the end of the year, the REIT also purchased an additional landlord levy credit that will be utilized in 2022 with access for the following year if required. As such, the REIT considers that its actual NOI margin for 2021 will be indicative of long-run performance with the expectation that it will achieve an annual NOI margin in the increased range of 76% to 79% of operating revenues. This margin expansion is further reinforced by the fact that the REIT's property operating costs are largely insulated from inflation, as Philip has mentioned. Tenants are responsible for a majority of their own energy and other utility costs. The REIT has no employees and therefore no wage costs. And the property management fees are a fixed percentage of operating revenues. In addition, our overhead is also protected from inflation, with the largest contributor being asset management fees. which are based exclusively on historical costs with no inflation component. FFO per unit and AFFO per unit increased significantly by 13% and 12% respectively compared to the prior year, driven by the positive impact of increased stabilized NOI and accretive acquisitions, while the AFFO payout ratio came to 80.4% for the year ended December 31st, 2021. sitting at the bottom end of its long-term target range. As highlighted on the previous slide, it further declined to 75% for the fourth quarter of 2021, meaningfully below our targeted range. On slide 13, you will see the REIT's strong performance demonstrated on a stabilized basis, with all metrics improving year over year. Stabilized residential occupancy increased to 98.7%, while stabilized occupied AMR and operating revenues both increased by 3.8%, which is at the high end of the REITs target range of 3% to 4% that Philip previously mentioned. Stabilized NOI increased by 5.2% for fiscal 2021 compared to the prior year, which was primarily driven by the higher operating revenues from increased monthly rents. as well as the reduction in operating expenses as a percentage of operating revenues, partly due to the recognition of the landlord levy rebate, but also strong cost control. This drove the increase in stabilized NOI margin to 77.4% for the year, up from 76.4% achieved during the prior year. Similar to the total portfolio, excluding the impact of the landlord levy rebate, stabilized NOI margins still increase to 76.6% for the year. As mentioned previously, we expect this margin expansion to continue going forward and anticipate an annual NOI margin in the range of 76% to 79% of operating revenues. Moving to slide 14, you will see the continuously strengthening financial results which eRES has been consistently generating. On a quarterly basis, FFO and AFFO per unit were 4.1 cents euro and 3.7 cents euro for the fourth quarter of 2021, representing increases of 17% and 19% respectively compared to Q4 of 2020, for all the reasons mentioned earlier. As demonstrated historically, Unihotus can expect a strong trend line of accretive growth and margin expansion to accelerate into E-Res' future. Further evidence on slide 14 is the fact that the REITs ASFO payer ratio remains strong, even with the REITs growing distributions. On February 23rd, 2021, the Board of Trustees had approved an increase of 5% to the REITs monthly distribution effective for March 2021 onward. Against a backdrop of unprecedented uncertainty and financial market volatility, this highlights the absolute stability and abundant liquidity inherent in the REIT's established platform. Showcasing this further, yesterday the Board of Trustees approved an additional increase to the REIT's monthly distribution to $0.01 per unit, which is equivalent to $0.12 per unit annualized, representing an increase of 9% that will be effective for March 2022 onward. eRES has demonstrated its commitment to unitholders through passing on its achievements via these increases to its distribution over the past year. Considering our distribution increase announced yesterday, the REITs distribution yield will be in excess of 4%. eRES is industry-leading and expects to continue to lead the way forward with consistent and continuous increases to its distribution. eRES has historically maintained a robust and conservative balance sheet, and that was further solidified throughout the year ended December 31st, 2021, as you can see on slide 15. Notably, the REIT has been able to lower debt to gross value by four basis points to 46.8% as at year end, while also obtaining mortgage financing for all its 2021 acquisition properties, plus profitably refinancing certain existing properties. This lowered the REIT's weighted average effective interest rate by nine basis points to 1.52% as at year end. evidencing the comparatively low interest rate environment in Europe that continues to persist, and the REIT's ability to thereby secure strong yield spreads on acquisitions. Also during 2021, the REIT extended its €165 million pipeline agreement with Capri for an additional two-year period ending on March 29, 2023, under the same terms and conditions. Further to that, on October 29, 2021, the REIT amended and renewed its existing revolving credit facility, providing up to 100 million euros for a three-year period ending on October 29, 2024, which resulted in lower interest rates and fees, among other things. Taking this all into account, as at year-end, even with outstanding draws on the revolving credit facility, the REIT had almost 200 million euros in immediate available liquidity that provides acquisition capacity of approximately $430 million, guaranteeing the ability of the REIT to act quickly to seize and capitalize on opportunities throughout the new year. Slide 16 demonstrates the REIT's track record for maintaining its consistently conservative debt metrics. Both its debt service coverage ratio and interest coverage ratios have remained significantly higher than the minimum thresholds dictated by the REIT's revolving credit facility. The REIT has been able to maintain its debt to GBV within its target range of 45 to 50%, while simultaneously lowering its weighted average mortgage effective interest rate quarter over quarter. Going forward, the REIT will ensure that it continues to fortify and strengthen its financial position as it grows its position. This brings me to slide 17, which provides more detail on our staggered mortgage portfolio. including the latest mortgage financing which was secured for all of the REITs 2021 acquisition properties, combined with the refinancing of certain existing properties, and the total principal amount of 156.6 million euros. The new mortgage financings mature on October 1st, 2027, and carry a weighted average stated interest rate of 1.16%. which lowered the REIT's overall mortgage effective interest rate by nine basis points to 1.52%, as previously mentioned. This well-staggered mortgage profile not only reduces renewal risk, but also stimulates liquidity, with the majority of our mortgages being non-amortizing. Thank you for your time this morning, and I will now turn things back to Philip to wrap up.
spk05: Thank you, Stephen. On the whole, This past year has demonstrated eREZ's ability to stay one step ahead as it continued to consistently outperform on its ambitious benchmarks and targets. We achieved a creative growth both organically and externally, despite confronting many economic, regulatory, and social challenges. We increased our distribution yields to one of the highest in the realm of residential real estate investment trusts, while simultaneously creating meaningful value quarter over quarter. It is in this respect that we emphasize how eREZ offers an extremely compelling investment opportunity that is predicated upon the trifecta of growth, income, and value. This is further underpinned by our investment highlights as outlined on the next slide. All of the successes mentioned during this morning's call have been made possible through excellent operational and financial management by our experienced management team, a liquid balance sheet, and an aligned partnership with CAPREIT. each of which forms essential pillars of our platform. It is through these channels that we are able to transform our fundamental strategic mission, objectives, and competitive advantage into tangible net worth, having increased our net asset value by 27% over the course of the year. In summary, eRES performed exceptionally well during this past year, and we believe that this performance is dwarfed by its untapped potential for future growth in the Netherlands and throughout Europe. With the ongoing support of our unit holders and board of trustees, as well as the sponsorship from CAPRI, we will continue to create value and maximize asset performance to deliver stable, attractive returns to investors. With that, I would like to thank you for your time this morning, and we would now be pleased to take any questions you may have. Operator, over to you, please.
spk00: Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, you can press star one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, you may press star two. Our first question for today comes from Jonathan Kelcher of TD Securities. Jonathan, your line is now open.
spk08: Thanks, good morning. First question, just on the revenue, I guess in the MD&A, for 2022, it looks like you'll be allowed to do 3.3% for liberalized suites. Is that correct? Correct. That's correct. Okay. And I also noticed that for certain regulated suites, you'll be able to do 2.3%. Do you know how many of those you have where the the tenant's median income threshold?
spk05: I think a good assumption is to assume that most of our flats will be 2.3%, because then for the ones who exceed the threshold, it's fixed dollar amounts, which are the maximum, which would then be significantly above the 2.3%. So I think if you assume 2.3% for a regulated portfolio, that would put you in a good direction, and I would expect us to do slightly better than that.
spk08: Okay. And then on turnover, do you expect similar uplifts to what you got near the end of 2021?
spk05: Yeah, I mean, as you saw in the quarter, it definitely continued to accelerate. Whether it stays at that level, we'll see. But I think it should at least stay on what it was for average across 2021. So, you know, 16%, we went as high as 19%.
spk08: even in december it was up above 20. uh whether that's sustainable you know we'll see but again in the high teens i think is very sustainable going forward okay so so comfortably your your revenue growth next year should be that's i think your three to four percent target you should be again pretty close or maybe even above the top end of that that'd be fair to say yeah i think we'll
spk05: Yeah, I think we're going to be above it. I mean, if you just say that our blended average indexation last year was 1.5-ish, and if you just blend out our portfolio in the boundaries of 3.3 and 2.3, it's going to be close to 2.8. So that's going to be a very good tailwind for us. And on top of turnover uplifts that we expect to be the same, I think the confidence that we exceed our range is high.
spk08: Okay, sounds good. And then secondly, just, and I don't think this is going to impact you guys a lot, but you put in something on a buy to let legislation that's come in in the Netherlands. Can you maybe give a little bit more color on that? Like, would that apply to apartment buildings or is it sort of single family or condo type properties that that's being tested?
spk05: Yes, it's very undefined at the moment. So just what happened is the federal government passed a law because housing is a federal issue, not a municipal issue or a provincial issue. So they passed a law that says municipalities are permitted to implement by the control or by the let restrictions so long as they're well-defined in terms of setting thresholds of where they apply, et cetera. And they left it at that. There's been lots of municipalities who've announced their intention to do this. And Amsterdam, as per usual, is ahead of the curve. And they published their legislation. And we, and along with others, responded to that legislation. And the first draft was very, very vague. And it would have captured almost all residential. No real differentiation in terms of size of the landlord or anything like that. There was a price limit. But through the consultation period, they've actually republished it. And they're being quite pragmatic and sensible about what it applies to. And it will exclude large portfolios is what it appears now. They haven't finally passed it, but they're being quite pragmatic about the application of that Amsterdam. And one would expect the other cities to probably do something quite similar. So the government passed the law allowing municipalities to do it. There's a lot who said they're going to, but they don't seem to be going to focus on portfolio style transactions, which is great for us. But again, just to be clear, it has no impact whatsoever on any of our existing assets. It only potentially has an impact if we were to buy a portfolio that had some vacancy in it. Because it only focuses on assets that turnover or assets that trade that are vacant. But again, even if that were to happen, it looks only at the transfer of title and the register. And so we could do share deals, which we've done in the past. And so structurally, And practically speaking, even if it were more restrictive than it appears to be today, it'll have virtually no impact on us whatsoever.
spk08: Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. I'll turn it back.
spk00: Thank you, Jonathan. Our next question comes from Brad Sturges of Raymond James. Brad, your line is now open.
spk07: Hi there. Just maybe starting just to back to the turnover for a second. Would you be expecting turnover rates for 2022 to be similar to 2021 or can we see turnover rates fall a bit?
spk05: I think they're going to be generally the same. You know, we've been running around the 13, 14% for the past years. December was three. So we'll see. But again, I don't see it changing materially downward. If it were between 12% and 13%, that's not unexpected for us. But again, we don't see any material downward movement in turnover rates. Okay.
spk07: And in terms of the fair value gain put through in the quarter, is that based on external appraisals? Or can you talk through maybe some of the changes in the input assumptions there?
spk06: So, yeah, they're based out of appraisals that we have our third-party evaluator complete. I mean, a lot of it is driven by cap rate compression, but also some of the stabilized NOI assumptions. And we have seen significant, you could say, increases in home prices that also influences, you know, the multi-res trading as well and the valuation approach.
spk07: For the cap rate adjustment, is that more broadly speaking in the market, or are there specific larger transactions that you could point towards?
spk06: I think it's a broad, you can say, assumption that is applying to the entire market. We've seen that there has been very low supply, but there's been a lot of demand for multi-res product, and those are what's trading, and you can see that in some of the assets that we purchased in the Q4 that, you know, they're in and around that type of cap rates.
spk07: And with the transactions closing at the end of the year and then in the early next year, what type of going-in cap rates would those transactions have been done at?
spk05: I mean, there's a range. I mean, the tightest one would be close to $3,000 and the widest one would be like $385,000. So again, it depends upon where you're at and what you're buying. But I mean, overall, both on the transaction side, you know, the cap rates have been compressing and that is what is basically driving the valuers. Data comps is looking at recently transacted comparables. Ours as well as others.
spk00: Yeah, makes sense. I'll turn it back. Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from Himanshu Gupta of Scotiabank. Himanshu, your line is now open.
spk01: Thank you and good morning. So on NOI margin expansion, what are you expecting in 2022 and do you see a further bump in 2023 because of this landlord levy rebate?
spk06: Yeah, I think we put out the range, the updated range. I think we're going to see if there is an abolishment of the landlord levy, you could say tax, we will see close to 100 basis points increase in our margin. And in addition, we also saw a lower rate in 2022 compared to 2021. and we're gonna be utilizing that landlord levy vehicles that we've similarly applied in 2021. So I think you're gonna see, if you use 2021 as a benchmark, you could definitely will be able to see close to 100 basis points increase in margins in 2023. So it'll just build up from there.
spk01: So Stephen, it could be something like 100 basis points in 2022 and another 100 basis points in 2023?
spk06: No, what I meant was, sorry, what I meant was if you use 2021 as a basis, by 2023, you should see 100 basis points increase in NOI margin. So it will take, because this year is a lower, yeah, in total, yeah. So it will trickle up, so maybe not a full 100 basis points this year, maybe 50 to 60, but you'll see a full result in 2023. Got it.
spk01: Okay, thank you. And then, you know, based on your, you know, kind of rent guidance or, you know, expectation of 3% to 4%, and then combined with this NOI margin expansion as well, I mean, do you think these seems to NOI growth will look like 5% plus? I mean, any thoughts there?
spk06: I think your number is reasonable. I mean, if you back into it, I think that you will likely get above the 5% NOI growth.
spk05: Yeah, I mean, or said differently, if we delivered 5% last year and we're going to get higher growth and higher margins, I would expect that it would be skewed to the upside.
spk01: Got it. Okay. And then on the distribution growth of 9%, you know, announced, Is that a reflection of your expectation of, let's say, EFFO growth this year? I mean, idea is to, you know, keep the payout ratio same. And, I mean, given your same store in 5% plus range, your FFO could look like 9%, 10%.
spk06: Yeah, I think as we just discussed, if we can get NOI growth of an excess of 5%, 5%, and then you add leverage to it, we can definitely get the high single digits of AFFO growth, which would translate, we are trying to maintain that range of 80% to 90% payout ratio. So it's a safe assumption.
spk01: Awesome. Okay.
spk05: But I mean, also, just to be clear, the increase, just to be clear, I mean, the increase that we did does not take our payout ratio down. up to the high end of the range, we left ourselves incredible amounts of room. Keep in mind that our payout ratio in Q4 was only 75%. So the board thinks it was very supportive and thought it was the right thing to do to return it to shareholders. But in no way is it stressing the business or does it require us to do anything extraordinary to deliver that distribution growth. We're still very much in the lower half of our stated range.
spk01: Okay, thanks. And then, you know, on just on the landlord levy, I mean, assuming this is abolished, will it become relatively more attractive to buy regulated units now? I mean, if I look at what we have bought in the last six, 12 months, it's mostly liberalized units. Do you think, you know, now regulated will start becoming more attractive?
spk05: Well, it's not so much that we've been avoiding them. You know, it's a product of what comes to market. And the overall investment volume was down last year compared to the prior two years. You'd sort of go back to 2018 to see a similar level. We got up to $9, $10, $11 billion, and last year came down to the high $7 billion. So good volume, but it just happened to be a lot of that was newer style product, more in the round stop. Again, we did one brand new purchase. We've now done a forward purchase to deliver Q1. So we're not explicitly... avoiding regulated. It just depends upon what product comes, and that's typically cheaper. The margin is definitely lower to reflect the landlord levy. It's also a bit lower because you have lower rents as well. But again, we would still be keen, depending upon what product is out there in the pricing, to buy regulated. It's very stable, consistent, no volatility as the economy goes up and down. So we like that as a product. It It used to be 50% of our portfolio, and it hasn't been a specific intention for us to bring it down to 40. It's just really a product of what's out there. And plus, it replenishes the pool of stuff that potentially can be liberalized as well. And you can see the acceleration of our uplift we're getting on our liberalization program. So very happy to buy regulated. It just depends upon what the sellers are bringing to market.
spk01: Got it. Fair enough. And then maybe, you know, a related question between, you know, a big capital compression in the last six months, I mean, based on your fair value gains, and looks like pretty consistent across Randstad and non-Randstad, but did the value appreciation was different between regulated and non-regulated? Did non-regulated outperform way better than regulated in the last six months?
spk05: No. It's been very consistent across the asset classes and the region. It's been happening, you know, across the country. And I'd also say that I think the regulators, you know, accelerated toward the end of the year, but also, or not the regulators, I'm sorry, the valuers, you know, they very much rely on external data. And there just wasn't a lot of external data in the first half of the year because so much stuff had come at the year end 2021. uh and so then you had a a dearth or a paucity of transaction comps so they were slow to adjust and plus i think they adjusted it were too harsh at the end of the year before because of the tax etc so i think although it accelerated in terms of our yield compression and asset value uplift i think if you looked at it on straight lining it across the other the entire year it wouldn't look out of line in any way. I just think the valuers were a little bit slow to catch up to where the market is.
spk01: But it was broad based. Got it. Okay. So one final question. Again, on regulated suites here. So the indexation is still 0% after July, but you have found an option to uh, you know, to charge up to, uh, 2.3%, which is the CPI. Uh, but no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
spk05: So the regulator for regulated suites announces every year around this time, the framework for which you can index your regulated suites last year, the regulator or the housing minister said zero this year, there's a framework. It's got some income components to it, but generally speaking, it's 2.3%. So we can index all of our regulated suites by 2.3% so long as we don't go over the statutory maximum. So we've actually gone back to what has historically been the case, except for 2021 when they did zero. It used to be CPI plus 2.5 and CPI plus four. It's more simplified this year, and it's just 2.3%, which is CPI effectively. But no, the zero bound does not exist anymore.
spk01: Awesome. So they basically relaxed that restriction. Okay. Thank you. Thank you, everyone. And I'll turn back.
spk00: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jimmy Shan of RBC Capital Markets. Jimmy, your line is now open.
spk04: Hey, thanks. So just to be crystal clear on that indexation, For the regulated units, we should be assuming that you're going to get 2.3% in 2022.
spk05: Generally, yes. Again, yeah, that's the assumption you should take. It's slightly more complicated than that, but you can take that as a good assumption.
spk04: Okay, so 2.3% on the regulated. And then on the liberalized, you will be getting 3.3%. And then turnover would be in the teens. Okay. Correct. And then also a clarification on the restrictions on buy to let. This only relates to vacant units. Correct. Okay.
spk05: If you buy a vacant unit, then you're not supposed to rent it out. You're supposed to live in it. That's the broadest sense of the word. But then they had to define it around price levels, etc., But now Amsterdam seems to have recognized a lot of the commentary and they're going to make exceptions for portfolios, etc. But again, it's only purchased vacancy.
spk04: Right. And the value threshold that they put on there, I presume like the assets that you're buying would be under that threshold? Or no?
spk05: No. probably again the the federal government did not define the the value they left that to the municipalities to do because what because where they want it to break they're not trying to focus on high level houses they're trying to focus on on mid-level and down right and and that absolute euro number would be different in every community so that is for the the community to decide but if they put it too high then you know people could challenge it and the federal or housing ministry might say well that's ridiculous but Again, Amsterdam is the one that's ahead of everybody, and they're in the process of finalizing it. So it's still waiting to be clear. But I have to be very frank about this. For us, it doesn't matter. It doesn't affect any of our existing portfolio at all. And it could only be implicated if we bought something with vacancy. And even if that were the case, then we would just simply turn around and do a share deal.
spk04: Mm-hmm. I was more thinking of the impact on the market as it relates to liquidity and how people are thinking about how to trade those assets.
spk05: Well, I mean, again, for institutional traders, they're going to know that the buyers can do a share deal. So I don't think it trades it anywhere. What it ultimately does is it's going to take more rental stock out of the market.
spk09: Right.
spk05: At the mom and pop level. if they bring this portfolio exclusion in. So, you know, mom and pops that might have one, two, three, four houses that were buying them, you know, that now will no longer be in the rental market. And you already have a housing crisis in the Netherlands as exhibited by, you know, double digit house price inflation as exhibited by our rental uplift as a decent proxy for the market. So although they think they're protecting people, I think it could be an adverse consequences, which is exactly what they didn't want to happen. And you're going to be reducing rental stock. That, can only have one effect.
spk04: Yeah, usually that's what happens. Okay, so then this last one for me. Anything else you're watching on the regulatory front that could have a material impact going forward?
spk05: I mean, again, the government, you know, is now formed. The ministers are all appointed. And there's been various things that I've discussed in the past that you can read about in the newspapers about is there going to be a municipal value cap in terms of the contribution to your points. They've talked about it for two years. It's supposed to be coming, but if it comes, it's very immaterial for us as well. There's other, you know, people have had in their various housing mandates what may or may not come. But again, I take some level of optimism about what has just happened and that Amsterdam seems to be listening to people with, you know, accepting some qualitative input on their legislation. That to me is a positive. And I also think it's a positive that the housing minister has done something above zero for regulating. So they're recognizing that they can't just be draconian across the board in the housing market because I'm not saying they're going to do intelligent things necessarily, but they've showed some level of rational approach to some changes. There could be more things coming. It's very dynamic. It's certainly not benign, but the most recent data point demonstrates to me that, you know, they are trying to be aware of other people's voices. And you can see, I mean, we accepted and worked through the regulatory changes from last year and ended up at, you know, almost 4% top line growth on a same store property. So again, I think that's where our experience in the Capri platform comes into place. Yeah. The regulatory pendulum swings constantly, and I think the key is being able to operate effectively no matter where that pendulum is. I think it was probably swinging and maybe still is swinging to the more heavily regulated, but we're still performing.
spk04: Okay.
spk00: Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Cornack of National Bank Financial. Matt, your line is now open.
spk02: Hi, guys. Just wanted to start off by saying congrats. I didn't think it was possible to have a positive catalyst given how strong your results have been over the last two years, but this quarter definitely seems like it is one. So it's great to see. Thanks, Matt. And then question-wise, looking at this cumulative home price appreciation versus rental growth, do you have a sense that market rents are maybe tracking closer to home price? in terms of where it would be on a free market basis for liberalized suites? Or have rents generally been growing at lower rates than the housing market?
spk05: I don't think rents are growing at teens annually. But again, if you look at what we're doing on our turnover uplifts, that is high teens, right? Now, again, that would be accumulated market rental growth. It's not year on year. but the average rental growth in the Netherlands is sub-10, and I think it's very market-oriented, but if we had the operations teams on, it used to be very much pronounced in the Ronstadt when you were seeing the uplifts or the conversion uplifts, but we're seeing it broad-based now. I think it is just you had the COVID noise. I don't want to be insensitive to COVID. I'm sorry for putting it that way, but you had the impact of COVID, which was really clouding it a bit, But now, you know, all the restrictions are coming off by mid-March, etc. And we're just seeing across the board strength because it's fundamentally a shortage. And it only results in house prices and rents going up. But I don't think rents are tracking the retail, you know, house price inflation one for one. I would think it'd be softer than that.
spk02: Fair enough. And then... Bit of a different question, but some investors have kind of commented that there's a lack of liquidity given your large shareholder and limited flow. How should we think about if that issue gets addressed? And again, share price is up 5% today, which is nice to see, but what are your thoughts on kind of floating equity into the markets and what sort of discount, if any, would you be willing to execute on to grow this entity a bit?
spk05: Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, listen, whether you're talking to me or to Mark Kinney, I mean, Capri, you know, was fundamental in creating this program or this company, this platform. It was never intended to be a mechanism for them to sell down. So that's why they haven't sold down. They like Europe. They like deploying capital. They think it's, you know, on a relative basis to some of the other places they could invest. They think it's very attractive. So I think if the market is necessarily waiting for Capri to sell some shares into the market, you know, I think that could be a long wait. But, you know, I think if people, you know, have courage to come in now, as I mentioned in my speech, I really think it's the trifecta. They can still buy an incredible discount to NAV, which I can't profess to understand. Now we're even more ahead of the others in terms of the income and look at the way we grew. So, I mean, the biggest thing for people to do now is come into it before it recovers meaningfully. And when it recovers meaningfully is when we would issue equity. I mean, we're not going to issue equity at a 25% discount to NAV. And plus, we need to. We managed to grow last year $170 million worth of acquisitions, which was doubled the year before without equity because we have capacity on our lines and we have capacity through the pipeline agreement with Capri. So, I mean, we would very, very much like to issue equity so that we can help increase the flow, help make it easier for people to participate in the platform. I can't see a world where we're going to issue equity at a 25% discount to NAV.
spk02: Fair enough, and congrats again. It was really a standout quarter so far.
spk00: Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, that's star 1 on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Dean Wilkinson of CIBC. Dean, your line is now open.
spk03: Thanks. Morning, guys. I'm sure Mark Kenny's listening. I'm sure Mark Kenny's listening. I'm imagining we're going to get a restriction on people buying rental properties in Canada, too. Never let one country fall as another one. Can we talk a little about the debt markets? It looks like you were able to put on some very favorable financing in light of people being scared that interest rates are going up. have you seen any change to the debt markets vis-a-vis your new acquisitions? And is that still sort of around that 1.1, 1.2 level for, you know, five to 10 year money?
spk06: So I would, I would say that we're not in a rush to put in financing. What we have seen is our margins are very constant. Some, some of the lenders margins are coming down a bit. But, you know, there's been, Some, you know, if you look at the forward curve, it's been quite unstable and there's been some announcements from ECB. So, you know, there's been some volatility, but we're not we're not in a rush. But we're going to make sure that once the markets have settled down, that's when we will put financing in place.
spk05: But I mean, I think to be realistic, you know, are we going to be at the 1% range a year before we were 97? This was at 1.1%. I think there is going to be some movement out on the interest rates, not necessarily driven by the ECB. I think it's going to be very difficult for the ECB to raise rates. I'm not an economist, but they weren't able to raise rates very successfully when things were good, given that you have 19 different countries or whatever it is in a monetary union. They all have different fiscal policies. Everybody's moving at a different speed. Very hard for them to raise rates. So I think what you're seeing now is a lot of noise in the market. Are they not going to? As Stephen said earlier, Because we're borrowing floating and then swapping, right? So, you know, the base rate hasn't changed. It's the forward curve, which is where the swaps are predicated, that is all over the place right now, because one day they sound bearish, the next day they sound foolish, hawkish, whatever it is. So, again, we're just going to be calm and wait it out. I think we'll probably see some widening in our total costs, but, you know, nothing like what you're seeing in North America, where interest rates are a certainty. I think that's far from the case in Europe.
spk03: So that historical 200 and change basis point spread over a low to mid-three cap rate, I mean, it sounds expensive, but it's normal, right? Like it's not – it shouldn't – Yeah, I mean, we – I'm sorry.
spk05: Yes. Yeah, I mean, we've been delivering at or 200 and sometimes we're at 300, right? So, you know, it depends. You know, the last deal we closed the cap rate or the last deal we announced cap rate was 385, right? So I'm pretty confident we're going to get our 200 basis points spread on that when we put permanent financing on. You know, if we're talking about a cap rate, you know, three to three and a quarter, maybe not. But then I'm okay with that. That's year one cap rate anyway. And, you know, year two, the way our top line is growing, we're going to be there. So... You know, 200 basis points was us. There's always a benchmark that we were achieving, delivering, but I don't think it's a line in the sand that we wouldn't do something at 175, particularly, you know, if you have great top line growth and you're just going to catch back up to next year. Again, we started out financing two, three years ago above two. It worked it all the way back down to below one. I don't think we go all the way back up again, but if we're in the mid ones, I still think, you know, versus any place else that you could, you know, find permanent debt financing, that's really, really good. And our cap rates are at or about the same as other people. So our yield spread is always going to be better on a relative basis, particularly to North America.
spk03: Absolutely. No question about it. That's all I had. I'll turn it back. Thanks, guys. Thanks, Dean.
spk00: Thank you. We have no further questions, so I will hand back to Philip Burns for any closing remarks.
spk05: Again, thank you for joining us this morning. As always, if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact either Stephen or myself. And thank you for your time, and everybody have a great weekend.
spk00: Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.
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