BSR Real Estate Investment Trust

Good afternoon, my name is Joanna and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the BSRQ1 2024 Financial Results Conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by the two. Thank you, Mr. Obusty. You may begin your conference.

Thank you, Joanna, and good day, everyone. Welcome to BSR REIT's conference call to discuss our financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2024. I'm joined on the call by Susie Rosenbaum, the REIT COO and interim chief financial officer. I'll begin the call with an overview of our Q1 performance and highlights, and Susie will then review the financials in detail, and I'll conclude by discussing our business outlook. After that, we'll be pleased to take your questions. To begin, I want to remind listeners that certain statements about future events made on this conference call are forward-looking in nature. Any such information is subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the cautionary statements on forward-looking information in our news release in MD&A dated May 8, 2024 for more information. During the call, we will reference certain non-IFRS financial measures. Although we believe these measures provide useful supplemental information about our financial performance, they are not recognized measures and do not have standardized meetings under IFRS. Please see our MD&A for additional information regarding non-IFRS financial measures, including reconciliations to the nearest IFRS measures. Also, please note that all dollar amounts are denominated in U.S. currency. We generated continued growth in all of our key financial metrics in the first quarter. This performance was supported by higher average monthly rent and relatively stable occupancy compared to Q1 last year, despite the short-term increase in apartment deliveries in our core Texas markets. For the quarter, same community revenues increased 1%, same community NOI rose 4.4%, FFO per unit was 25 cents compared to 23 cents last year, and AFFO per unit was 24 cents compared to 22 cents last year. The results reflect the continued solid demand for rental housing in our markets, which continue to have very strong underlying fundamentals. They also reflect the tremendous efforts of our community management teams and the strength of our operating platform. Weighted average rent at quarter end was $1,502 a month, an increase of .9% from $1,489 a month a year earlier. Weighted average occupancy was .3% compared to .9% at the end of Q1 2023. Blended rental rates in the first quarter declined less than 1% compared to the prior quarter, excluding short-term leases. Suburban Class A apartment rental rates as evidenced by our portfolio have been slightly impacted by new apartment deliveries, an expected phenomenon that we discussed in our last conference call. We still firmly believe that this impact is temporary. One benefit of a higher rate environment is fewer construction starts and a future strong rent growth trajectory. I will speak more about this later on in the call. In addition to our solid financial performance, we were delighted to have recently been ranked second in the online reputation score among U.S. multifamily rates for 2023. The ORA score, which is published by J. Turner Research, measures online review sentiment across major websites and is the industry standard measurement of resident satisfaction. We also rank first overall in the subcategories of customer service, communication, cleanliness, and security. This is a very strong endorsement of our team, our product, and our operating platform. We take the questions and concerns of our residents very seriously and move quickly to address them. Our strong online reputation is an important tool to help us maintain strong occupancy and drive rent growth over time. We continue to be in a strong financial position with good liquidity, a conservative payout ratio, and 100% of our interest rate exposure effectively hedged. We will continue to focus on prudent capital allocation as we pursue growth. I will now invite Suzy to review our first quarter financials in more detail. Suzy?

Thank you, Dan. To begin, I want to note that I will reference same community performance only as all properties were owned in Q1 of those periods. Same community revenue increased 1% in Q1 2024 to $42 million compared to $41.6 million in Q1 last year. This improvement reflects a .9% increase in average rental rates from $1,489 per apartment unit as of March 31, 2023 to $1,502 as of March 31, 2023. As well as -over-year increases in other rental income and utility reimbursements. Same community NOI increased .4% to $23.8 million compared to $22.8 million in Q1 last year, reflecting the higher revenue and a reduction of $1 million in real estate taxes primarily due to tax refunds received during Q1 of 2024 and the change in Texas tax legislation during Q4 of 2023. This was partially offset by a 0.4 million increase in property operating expenses due to higher insurance costs. FFO for Q1 2024 was $13.6 million or $0.25 per unit, an increase of .6% in Q1 of 2020. Compared to $13.0 million or $0.23 per unit last year, the increase reflected higher NOI partially offset by higher interest costs. The repurchase of approximately $3.5 million units during 2023 also positively impacted FFO per unit this year. ASFO for Q1 2024 increased 3% to $12.9 million or $0.24 per unit compared to $12.5 million or $0.22 per unit in Q1 last year. The improvement was primarily due to the higher FFO partially offset by higher maintenance capital expenditures due to the timing of projects in the first quarter. The REIT paid quarterly cash distributions of $0.13 per unit in Q1 of those years, representing an ASFO payout ratio of .9% in Q1 2024 and .1% in Q1 of 2024. All distributions were classified as a return of capital. Turning to our balance sheet. The REIT's debt to growth book value as of March 31, 2024 was .5% or .3% excluding the convertible debentures. Total liquidity was $107.4 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $7.7 million and $99.7 million available under our revolving credit facility. We have the ability to obtain additional liquidity by adding properties to the current borrowing base of the facility. As of March 31, we had total mortgage notes payable of $458.8 million with a weighted average contractual interest rate of .5% and a weighted average term to maturity of 4.1 years. Those figures exclude the credit facility and the construction loan for an investment property under development. In total, the mortgage notes payable and revolving credit facility totaled $779.9 million at quarter end with a weighted average contractual interest rate of .4% excluding the debentures and the construction loan and 100% of our debt was fixed or economically hedged to 6 rates at a weighted average contractual interest rate of .5% excluding the construction loan. The outstanding convertible debentures were valued at $39.8 million as of March 31 at a contractual interest rate of 5% maturing on September 30, 2025 with a conversion price of $14.40 per unit. The major increase in the fixed component of our debt reflects the impact of the eight interest rate swaps we have entered into since July 2022 as well as other debt management activities. The last of those swaps took effect in February of this year. I'll now turn it back over to Dan for closing comments. Dan.

Thanks, Susie. Our business outlook remains very robust. While we recognize the impact of short-term increase in apartment supply in our markets, it is important to recall that this is a natural response to a surge in housing demand. That demand reflects the extremely strong fundamentals of our core Texas Triangle markets. Those fundamentals have not changed in the least. We continue to see very strong population and economic growth in our markets. Despite that growth, rental rates as a percentage of household income remain below the national level and far below the major gateway markets. As I noted last quarter, we fully expect that 2024 will be the peak year for apartment deliveries. The pace of developments slowed sharply last year due to the impact of rising interest rates on developers. The pipeline of new supply is very thin beyond this year. With migration into our markets continuing, we expect new supply to be absorbed by early 2025. We therefore believe that 2025, 2026, 2027 and beyond will be significantly stronger years for our rental markets. I would now like to review our guidance for 2024, which we updated yesterday. We currently expect growth in same community revenue of up to 3%, growth in same community in-alive of 1-3%, growth in property operating expenses and real estate taxes of 0-2%, FFO per unit of 91 to 97 cents compared to 93 cents in 23, AFFO per unit of 84 to 90 cents compared to 85 cents in 2023. While our revenue forecast was slightly lower compared to our previous guidance in March, we also reduced the forecasted growth in property operating expenses and real estate taxes due to lower insurance costs. As a result, there were no changes to our forecasts for NOI, FFO per unit and AFFO per unit. So we expect to continue generating solid financial performance despite the more challenging near-term environment. We continue to patiently surveil our markets for investment opportunities. However, we have no interest in nation-building. As we have discussed previously, we will only look to capitalize on opportunities for accretive growth on a per-unit basis. We have seen positive momentum in acquisition spreads -to-date, and we are poised to quickly pounce when we see an opportunity. But for now, the most increative investment is our stock price. So long as the price of our equity remains vastly different from the actual cost of our real estate, we will continue to explore opportunities to repurchase shares on behalf of our investors when able. Overall, we are pleased with our current competitive position. We are generating solid financial performance and maintaining strong liquidity in a conservative balance sheet. We look forward to even stronger performance as the temporary impact of new apartment supply in our markets dissipates. That concludes our prepared remarks this morning. Suzy and I would now be pleased to answer your questions. We'd like to respect everybody's time and complete our call within an hour, giving all of our analysts the opportunity to ask a question. So please limit your initial questions to one, and then rejoin the queue if you have additional items to discuss. If we don't have the time to address everything, we can respond to additional questions by phone or email afterwards. Joanna, please open the line.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. And if you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. The first question comes from Jonathan Keltcher at TD Cowan. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good afternoon. Just on the cadence of revenue growth, I guess we're kind of at or just past peak deliveries of both assets obviously are still in lease up. When would you expect your blended rents to turn back positive? And then do you see that sort of accelerating as we go through the end of this year and into 2025?

Yes, Jonathan. So April looks a little bit as trending positive right now. So it looks a little bit better than Q1. We're not quite out of this period of stabilization yet. So with that being said, I would say just like I said last quarter, right now, you know, Q1 was pretty much in line with Q4. Right now, it looks positive, but I still wouldn't expect things to turn up to where we're seeing a trend that lasts longer that's more positive towards the latter half of the year in 2025.

Okay. Thanks.

Thank you. Next question comes from Brad Sturgess at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Hey there. Just on the guidance range, I guess the lower end of the range was adjusted a little bit, but the midpoint's roughly the same. I just wanted to elaborate a little bit more in terms of what might be driving the lower end of the range.

Yeah. So what we did with the guidance is we reduced the midpoint for revenue from 2% to .5% as I just alluded to because I don't think we're going to be out of this period of stabilization, right, as quickly as we initially thought. But then that was offset by a very favorable insurance renewal that happened in April. So the impact of the insurance renewal, which is actually a 15% decrease over the prior year, has basically outweighed or is right in line with the revenue decrease projection that we already had, which is why NOI didn't change, nor SFO or ASFO.

Okay. It's just the moving parts on those two main assumption changes, but overall it's just a slight adjustment.

That's right.

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Thank you. Next question comes from Kyle Stanley at Geisha Den. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Afternoon, everyone. It looks like the, you know, just sticking with the new leasing side of things, it looks like the new leasing spread in Austin actually improved versus the fourth quarter. I'm just wondering, was there seasonality there or is this now, you know, we're starting to see the stabilization of the kind of elevated supply and this is kind of how we can expect things to trend in the other markets as we move forward.

We're still bouncing around in Austin. It's still pretty close, right, and the blended rates in Austin in April at this point are around like a negative 3%. So that's obviously the toughest market right now when it comes to product coming online.

Okay, fair enough.

However, but keep in mind too, right, that's just Austin. We've got, that's only 25% of our portfolio.

Yeah, no, Kyle is Dan. I mean, in particular to Austin, as soon as you hit the nail on the head, that's about 20 to 25% of our portfolio. And within Austin, I really think of two markets that we are somewhat paying attention and defending against some supply, and that would be up in North Austin and Buda and Georgetown. I think what we're seeing, we're a little bit hesitant in Austin to call peak deliveries. We've seen peaks in Q4 of 23 and Q1 of 24. We do see some early peaks in April on deliveries in Austin, but it generally takes about three to six months for a market to pick up the slack generated by peak deliveries. So I'll contrast that with the other 75% of our company. And Houston and Dallas, Dallas where we have 50% of our company, you know, we saw peak deliveries really in Q4 to Q1 of 24. So we're coming out of the back end of Dallas sooner than we're coming out of Austin. Now, moving back to Austin, let's take Georgetown. You know, Georgetown looks to be one of the, you know, one of the, I say the highest culprits of deliveries in 2023 and moving into 2024. So last year, that Georgetown sub-market where we have one property, that market delivered 28% of its overall inventory. Now, an average that you want to see for a healthy market is about 6% to 5% in the United States. So 28%, I think we can all agree, is a pretty high number of deliveries. What's fascinating about that market is it's also the fastest growing county in the United States and has been for two years. So last year, that market absorbed 17% of its overall inventory, right? So it's not, I mean, you know, we're seeing those same absorption ratios throughout the country. You know, in a small market with no supply to speak of, we're seeing no net absorption to speak of. And in markets where we're seeing a lot of supply being delivered, I would say about 9 out of 10 of those markets, including all of ours, we're seeing more absorption than we've ever seen in that sub-market. And, you know, that just goes back to, you know, your real estate thesis. Do you want to be in the population growth game, which I think is the long-term bet? BSR wants to be in that population growth game. Or do you want to be in a declining, in a degrading operating environment? And I tell you what, one out of 10 years, that latter market looks good, man. The other nine, it favors population growth.

Okay. Thank you very much for the call. I appreciate it. I'll turn it back.

Thank you. The next question comes from Mike Makitis at BMO. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon, everybody. Just with respect to, I guess you got the favorable impact on the insurance. I think you booked a tax refund that's fairly significant this quarter as well. And I know, Dan, you think characterized your appeals process as being a contact sport. But with all that being said, is there an element of additional refunds that you expect that would be significant for the rest of this year embedded in your guidance or no?

Okay. So let's be very clear about this. In our original guidance, it included having those tax refunds. They just happened faster than we anticipated. So we received $1.1 million in tax refunds in Q1. And of all of that, for our 2024 guidance, we had predicted all but about $100,000 of it that's extra. So you can't extrapolate that to future quarters.

Got it. Okay. So and if you do benefit from any others, then that would be upside, potential upside to your guides. Not saying you're expecting it, but if it were to happen.

Yeah, there is some other. I think as in past years, we will kind of have a closer beat. We'll be able to hunt with a rifle and not a shotgun on our tax assessment for the year, closer to August and September. So look for any adjustment to guidance related to tax appeals to occur in that second quarter review in August. As it stands right now, you know, we had 31 active prior year lawsuits. 13 were settled and we have 18 remaining. At any given time, those 18 could settle. We're not in control of that. What we are assuming in our guidance is a typical year where a certain percentage of those active, that contact sport is addressed. If we see an accelerant in one year, we would expect to see a decelerant in the following year. So it's a balancing act of it's still good quality in a lie because it occurs every year to the extent we see something happen faster in a year. You know, that's that's blended into our guidance. And if we, you know, if we expected 20 lawsuits to be settled this year and we got 22, we would we'd probably account for that and communicate that to the market that next year we might be able to do that.

Thank you. Okay. You know, I'd be interested in your guys thoughts. You know, we can you've done a great job holding the line on your revenue and, you know, we can all argue about whether we're there in peak supply or not or if it's Q2 or Q3 when we start to get leasing spreads to improve again. But I'd be more interested in your thoughts, Dan, just with respect to knowing that you've got strong population growth in the markets that you've chosen, knowing that it'll take a while for the supply to come back online. But what I'm really more interested in is just like where you think, you know, all else equal rents on new supply have to be to make development economic and sort of, you know, what's what's the limiter in terms of market rent growth where what's the threshold where you start to see developers get back in the game. I'm not saying that that's like comes on and limits your growth, but just kind of get a sense of what the potential runway for future rent growth is in the next up cycle.

Well, yeah, that's a great question. And forgive me, I'm going to throw it. I'm going to throw a dart at a dart board in the dark here on rent. I just I don't have my calculator in front of me, but I'd ballpark it right now. I think that's something that competes with us in a 7% developer interest environment with debt and equity needing somewhere similar of a return. You need to build something that makes about $2,900 a month in effective rent. You need to lease it up in 14 months before you can generate the kind of returns that we're seeing at $1,500 a month. So with that, that's impossible. And Dallas and Austin and Houston. And what that means is there's no development. So you've seen year over year new permits, new deliveries, no, I mean, new starts just fall off a cliff.

Right. So you're saying versus the $1,500 that's rents for your product. So where would rents today in the market be for new product? And knowing there's incentives to get it done, where would the rents be?

Yeah, new product just generally in Texas or in a growth market in the U.S.?

Right. Where would the market rents be today versus that $2,900 for new product?

Yeah. So I think Mark had asked right now on a development lease up, it's probably sitting at 22 to 2400 bucks a month, and we've already concessed by one to two months to call it 15%. So that puts effective asking rates on a lease up at about 1,750 to 1,850 a month and balanced against our effective rates in those markets still puts us at a competitive advantage. And I do want to, you know, it'd be one thing if we had older properties, that $300 a month rent spread, we'd probably be in a different position. But right now the product that's delivering in our markets, I would say in our sub-markets that we own, is borderline the same if not slightly inferior in quality and amenities to the products that BSR owns. So we have a better product and a lower price, which is why we would expect, you know, retention rates to increase throughout the rest of this year to continue to see positive renewal momentum. You know, if you've got the fundamental advantage on product and price, and then you happen to place the best team in America as the operator, I'll take those odds.

Got it. So if I put words in your mouth, and I'm going to risk it, but unless we see, you know, the cost of capital improve dramatically, I guess, building rates go down for construction debt, or construction costs come down on the other side, the runway for future rent growth would have to be significant to evoke a new supply cycle.

Yeah, without question, and you can put those words in my mouth, and I would add on to them and say that if interest rates drop to 0% next month, we still wouldn't see any meaningful supply based on those new starts competing with us until late 27. Right? So those interest rates have been increasing exponentially. I don't know, it's parabolically, right, from a low. And it's, I would say it's more than chilled out new development. It's created new development just stopped. The existing development is, you know, the supply has been peaking, and what you're seeing is typical of, you know, owning in a high growth market. Instead of rent climbing up on a mountain and then falling off, the rent climbs up, plateaus, bounces around for a period of quarters, and then continues to grow. That's, I mean, that's what the graph looks like to us. We don't see any supply coming in, and it reminds everybody it takes two to three years to compete.

Okay, noted. That was fun.

Thanks. Thank you. Next question comes from Jimmy Shen at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks. So just to follow up along the line of questioning on future rent growth, if you were an acquire war of assets today, how are you underwriting rent growth in 25, 26, and 27?

Well, I'm a smart acquire. I'm using real page costar to help support my rent growth estimates. And I like, you know, costar in Texas is floating that up to, I'll call it, three to four percent in 25.

What about the years further out? Because the picture that you've kind of projected is that supply dropped automatically, absorption super strong. And so that's a pretty good setup. And so we're thinking higher single digit growth or?

I mean, that's what I'm looking at. I'm seeing that short term Austin is going to be a quarter or two behind Houston and Dallas, right? And Houston's going to do what it's done, which is I think it's one of the five markets in the sunbelt that's projected to have overall rate increase this year. The other one being Oklahoma City, and then there's three more that we don't own, so they don't matter. Now, so Houston's out of the woods early, but there's going to be a lid on rent growth because the price of single family housing is so low. Even though incomes in Houston are rising rapidly. So I think Houston recovers early, levels off at four next year, and then probably bounces up a bit the year after that. Now, Dallas looks to stabilize, as Susie mentioned, call it somewhere between third and fourth quarter of this year. When it does, I just want to remind everybody you got 159,000 people that moved to Dallas last year, and they're looking for a home. You saw 21,000 units absorbed and there's not a lot of new home building and new apartment deliveries taking place. So if that rapid landlord favoring migration continues, then Dallas looks to balance out into this year, produce similar 3.8 to 4 next year on rate growth. And I think costars having a tough time running those numbers for 26 or 27. You'd have to talk to them, but the numbers look pretty compelling to me, high single digits. And then Austin, Austin's your speed demon. So it's going to oversupply. It's got peak deliveries in Q1 of this year, followed by peak deliveries right now. And it's got two and a half million people. But Austin seems to be absorbing per pound more units than any other market in the country. And it has for a couple of years now. So if that absorption continues to take place, then Austin should absorb the slack in the first quarter of next year. But it'll be running a lot faster because it's got a whole lot, it's got a higher relative population growth metric for housing. So it could be put right back in the position and elevated rent growth towards the middle or I'll say second quarter to the latter half of next year, exceeding that of Dallas or Houston. And then continue to rev up in 26 and 27. So single digits is not out of the question and probably true to form in 26 and 27.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from David Christoffel at Echelon. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good afternoon. A lot of talk about development and supply and what's going on around you and with your peers. But in terms of the active development you've got at the moment, is there any change to expected economics given shifts in market rent and obviously shifts in supply and kind of hitting peak supply as you're close to delivery? Yeah,

that's a good question, David. So the project we're talking about that David asked about is a development project that's set to open in June. We'll begin leasing in late June. What we're going to tinker with there is the pace of absorption. We're anticipating roughly 15 to 18 leases per month on that 238 unit property. That gets us about, I'll say, stabilized occupancy over the course of about 12 to 13 months. If we underwrite yield to total cost on that deal, I think originally we were looking at six and a half. I think right now our range is 575 to 675 dependent. Now 575 would assume that rents drop 6% in Austin. 675 assumes our original underwriting and that is that rents went up and kind of new rents kind of bounced down about 6% and they go flat line for the next two years. So I feel comfortable with that original six and a half percent number and I would say our bottom end estimates 575.

And just to be clear, six and a half is flat on today's market rent or on the kind of early 2022 market rent?

Yes, six and a half would be based on today's effective rent. So if we see a rent decline during lease up, then that's going to impact our stabilization number and we look at 575.

Okay, perfect. Appreciate that, Collier. Thanks.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. As a reminder, should you have a question, please press star followed by one. Next question comes from Sir Ams Renivas at Cormac Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Aprilia. Good morning, everybody. I should say good afternoon, Ashley. Hi, just looking at SP&IM margins across markets, if I look at Austin and I look at Houston, I do see that margins actually expanded quite a bit here over here. I'm not sure if I'm missing something here, but is there something to do with one-time costs over here or is it generally a more efficient cost structure in these markets?

Hey, Sy. Yeah, no, the reason the margins expanded is that's based on the tax refund that I just previously spoke about.

Oh, all right. Okay, cool. That was all for me. Thanks, Luzi.

Okay, great. Thank you. And the next question comes from Himash Gupta at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Thank you and good afternoon. So just said the portfolio occupancy at around 95%. So what are your thoughts of your portfolio occupancy by end of the year? And how do you think the market occupancy is likely to trend by the end of the year?

Yeah, sure. So, Himanshu, I think we're looking, we continue to estimate about a 95% occupancy rate for the portfolio throughout the rest of the year. And what we're seeing on news and renewals is not impacting our confidence in that occupancy rate whatsoever. I think that's just due to the suburban Class A style, garden style property that we own. It's new. It's a superior product. So we're able to maintain occupancy and defend with rate. I think the further you get away from suburban A, the more likely you are to have to defend with both occupancy declines and rate declines. Now, as it relates to, I'll say overall, our stabilized occupancy by market this year, you know, I think the expectations are stabilized occupancy in Austin of .9% and in Dallas of .6% and Houston of 90.5%. That compares to the U.S. stabilized vacancy or occupancy number of about 93.9%. So as you, you know, these, Houston in particular is what shoots out. You know, Houston delivered I think about 16,300 units in change last year and absorbed 16,100 units. That's about average delivery for Houston. And it's some healthy absorption numbers that we saw and we were expecting that on a year over year basis. Now, if you look back at Houston over a period of decades, the average stabilized occupancy in Houston that you'd underwrite to would be about .5% to 90% dependent on class. Now, what we've seen over the last three to four years is a pullback in average deliveries in Houston. And as a result, I mean, it's just simple arithmetic. You continue to have, I mean, Houston grew population by 120,000 people last year. I mean, those people need a home. If Houston continues to pull back on its deliveries, then you would expect the overall market occupancy to creep up over time. That's exactly what's happened is, is an expectation of occupancy in Houston of about a percent higher on a look forward than it's historically been. It's continued to remain pretty bullish on it.

That's very helpful. So clearly stable occupancy for BSR portfolio for the year, but market occupancy can still decline for the, for the year. And then if I look out in 2025, kind of follow up to Jimmy's question, you said, you know, you will underwrite to the focus on market rent growth in 2025. If I heard correctly, what occupancy you're using again, will you underwrite in 2025?

Occupancy for the portfolio?

For the portfolio, that's right. Yeah.

Or

maybe, you know, the question was more around the new acquisition. What about that? You know, will you be underwriting like further occupancy erosion or occupancy gains in 2025?

On the new development?

Correct. That's right.

Yeah, I think you can look at a back half of the year on that new development of a range between 85 and 95 percent effective occupancy. That's fair. To the extent it's 85, then our average leases per month were about 12, 12 to 13. To the extent it's 95, then our average leases were 15 to 18 a month. We're estimating 15 to 18 a month. And I would say, let's compare that lease up to what we experienced in 2021. So, you know, 2021, you saw more lease ups, or quicker lease ups than you've ever seen, right? And in that environment, you're, you know, on this project, apples to apples, we'd underwrite 25 to 28 leases a month. And a stabilized occupancy number of about eight to eight and a half months from initiation of lease up. That was not our assumption in this project. We actually did assume a much slower pace. I'll call it a 12 to 15 month stabilization process. And even with the, you know, I would say the above the fold supply concerns, just given pent up demand and continued migration into Austin, 15 to 18 looks to be, per month looks to be the number. And the answer to that is back after the year, 85 to 95 percent, probably closer to 95 for the develop project.

Got it. Thank you, guys. I'll hold them back.

Thank you. As we have no further questions, I will turn the call back over for closing comments.

Thanks, Joanna. That concludes our call today. Thanks for joining us. We look forward to speaking with you again this summer when we report our second quarter results. Thank you all.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference for today. We thank you for participating and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.