iA Financial Corporation Inc.

Greetings and welcome to the Industrial Alliance Second Quarter Earnings Results 2023 conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, please press star 0. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on Friday, August 4th, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Maddy-Annick Bonneau, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning and welcome to our 2023 second quarter conference call. All our Q2 documents, including press release, slides for this conference call, MD&A, and supplementary information package are posted in the investor relations section of our website at ia.ca. The conference call is open to the financial community, the media, and the public. I remind you that the question period is reserved for financial analysts. A recording of this call will be available for one week starting this evening. The archived webcast will be available for 90 days, and a transcript will be available on our website in the next week. I draw your attention to the forward-looking statements information on slide two, as well as the non-IFRS and additional financial measures information, and the notes regarding 2022 restated results under IFRS 17 and IFRS 9 on slide three. Also, please note that the detailed discussion of the company's risk is provided in our 2022 MDMA available on CDAR and on our website with an update in our Q2 2023 MDMA released earlier today. Sorry, released yesterday. My apologies. I will now turn the call over to Denis Ricard, President and CEO.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. As usual, I will start by introducing everyone attending on behalf of IE. First, Mike Stickney, Chief Growth Officer and responsible, among other things, for our U.S. operations. Alain Bergeron, Chief Investment Officer. Stéphane Bourbonnet, Executive VP, responsible for our mutual fund business and wealth management distribution affiliates. Rani Laflamme, in charge of individual insurance and NVIDIAs. Pierre Mirand, responsible for Dealer Services Canada and IE Auto and Home. Sean O'Brien, in charge of our group businesses. And also attending his last earnings call today is Jacques Padmin, our chief actuary and CFO. As you know, Jacques will be retiring at the end of this year after 33 years of dedicated service, for which I thank him on behalf of the board and the management team. Over the years, in addition to leading several strategic projects, including most recently the transition to IFRS 17, In our flexible work-from-anywhere working model, Jacques developed strong and genuine connections with his teams and had a positive, lasting effect on their professional development. Our incoming chief actuary and CFO, Eric Jobin, has been with AIE for more than 29 years. Eric has occupied roles of increasing responsibility over the years, including in corporate actuarial services, group benefits and retirement solution, and most recently, operational efficiency. I wish them both all the best for the years to come. Now, for the results. Yesterday, we reported our results for the second quarter. I refer you to slide eight while I comment on the main KPIs. Core EPS is $2.39, which is 3% higher than a year earlier, a quarter in which our results were particularly strong. and 15% higher than in the first quarter of 2023. Car ROE of 14.5% is close to our medium-term target. Our capital position continues to be very robust, with a solvency ratio of 154% as of June 30th. Our strong organic capital generation contributes to this solid result. In Q2, it amounted to $150 million, keeping us in line to meet our 2023 organic capital generation target of at least $600 million. Business growth also remained strong, with very good sales in almost all business units. This performance led to a solid 12% year-over-year growth in premium and deposits and a 10% year-over-year growth in AUA and AUM. Finally, following a smooth transition to the new accounting standard without any impact on our book value, the latter continued to grow during the quarter, reaching 4% growth year-to-date. Overall, our second quarter results confirm a very robust capital position along with continued sales momentum from almost all business units and increased profitability year-over-year. Moving to slide 9 to look at our year-to-date results, I will comment briefly on the first six months of the year. Since the beginning of the year, our core profit has grown by 7% compared with last year IFRS 4 core EPS. This is a good result, given a slower recovery in our U.S. Dealer Services Division and the economic context. However, Following recent developments in the environment, such as higher mortality and P&C claims, as well as the worsening of the yield curve inversion, unless positive changes occur during the second half of the year, it now seems less likely that core EPS will grow by at least 13% over the 2022 IFRS 4 results in 2023. Building on the robust company's fundamentals, business model, growth potential, and strategy, we continue to be fully committed to creating value for our shareholders and delivering average core EPS growth of 10% plus per annum in line with our midterm market guidance. Looking at the other metrics, our solvency ratio is well above target, core ROE is near midterm target, and our dividend payout ratio is well within target. As for organic capital generation, we expect to reach our $600 million target in 2023. In conclusion, our strategy is, and has always been, based on the long-term vision for sustainable growth. On the strength of our solid capital position, we continue to invest organically in our future growth, particularly in our digital transformation, while looking for acquisition opportunities that meet our criteria. With this in mind, and in keeping with our purpose of making our clients feel confident and secure about their future, we'll be able to continue to deliver average and real core EPS growth of 10% plus and to reach our core ROE target of 15% plus. This concludes my remarks. I will now turn it over to Mike, who will comment on business growth. And following Mike, Jacques will provide more information about future results and our capital strength, and we will then take questions. Mike?

Thank you, Denis, and good morning, everyone. In Q2, our business growth momentum continued in almost all our business units. Sales were particularly good in Canada in individual insurance, dealer services, IA Auto and Home, for insured annuities and for our group businesses, as well in U.S. individual insurance. We were also pleased with wealth management sales results given the volatility of market conditions. As for U.S. dealer services, the environment continued to be challenging. Now, please refer to slide 11 as I will comment more specifically for each business unit. Starting with Insurance Canada, individual insurance continues to lead the Canadian market in terms of the number of policies issued. During the second quarter, individual insurance sales totaled $89 million, a solid result that compares to a strong quarter of $98 million a year earlier. and which is 22% higher than the $73 million in sales recorded in the second quarter of 2021. In addition to the strength of our extensive distribution networks and the performance of our digital tools, this good result is attributable to our comprehensive range of products. Incidentally, we are constantly striving to offer new products to better meet our clients' needs. With this in mind, the company launched a new universal life product for the high-end market in the second quarter, which was well received. For group insurance results, strong growth in sales drove net premiums up 6% year-over-year to reach $404 million. Sales and employee plans divisions were up 8% compared to a year earlier and amounted to $13 million. Sales for special markets totaled $86 million, up 25% year-over-year. In the dealer services division, sales amounted to $190 million, up 10% to a year earlier. This performance is a continuation of past quarters with very good growth in the sale of P&C products, which include extended warranties and replacement insurance, up 21% from the same period in 2022. As for our P&C affiliate IA Auto and Home, direct written premiums registered a strong result with a 12% increase when compared to the same period last year. Now, turning to slide 12, which focused on the wealth management business segment, IA segregated fund sales continued to do well as the company still ranks first in Canada for gross and net segregated fund sales, strengthening our leading position in the industry. More specifically, segregated fund sales totaled $829 million, and net sales resulted in inflows of $188 million. Mutual fund gross sales totaled $370 million, a result similar to last year with net outflows of $139 million. Together, total net fund entries amounted to $49 million for the second quarter. For insured annuities and other savings products, second quarter sales reached $646 million, almost tripling last year's results. We continue to believe that many clients of these products will transfer their funds to our segregated fund and mutual funds when markets become less volatile. Finally, sales and group savings and retirement totaled $747 million in the second quarter. This represents a 7% increase year-over-year, mainly driven by a large transaction in insured in insured annuity products during the quarter. Going to slide 13 for our U.S. operations big business segment, sales in individual insurance division amounted to 43 million U.S. and are up 13% for the same period in 2022. This good growth was driven by strong performance from the middle and family and final expense markets. In the dealer services division, second quarter sales amounted to 246 million U.S. compared to $266 million a year earlier. This result is mainly attributable to reduced affordability resulting from higher financing costs for consumers and persisting inventory constraints. On a positive note, we are pleased with the eight awards received by U.S. Dealer Services at the 2023 Dealer's Choice Awards. For the second year in a row, we received the highest number of awards, confirming how well we are perceived by dealers. Moreover, during the last quarter, we increased our dealer count for our products by 6%. Overall sales results for the quarter, but also for the first half of 2023, are quite strong for most business units. This shows that with long-term vision and discipline, we continue to successfully generate solid business growth. Now, I'll turn it over to Jacques to comment on Q2 earnings and capital strengths.

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I will start with slide 15, which presents an overview of our profitability and financial strength for Q2 2023. Core EPS increased by 3% year-over-year, and core ROE for the last 12 months is 14.5%. The increase in earnings is mainly due to a 14% year-over-year rise in the core net investment results and an 11% increase in expected insurance earnings. In addition, overall core insurance experience was positive, mainly as a result of favorable disability experience. In terms of capital, we ended the first half of the year in a very robust capital position, highlighted by our solvency ratio of 154%. Ongoing good organic capital generation and sound capital and risk management practices contribute to this capital strength. Book value now. Thanks to our prudent and long-term management approach, it was not affected by the transition to the new accounting regime. During the first six months of 2023, IE book value increased by 4%, despite the volatility expected from IFRS 9 and 17. Now turning to slide 16 to look at results by operating business segment. In the Insurance Canada segment, core earnings of $91 million compared to a particularly strong result for the same period in 2022. During the second quarter of 2023, a solid 12% year-over-year growth in expected earnings was recorded, including a 27% increase in the CSM recognized for service provided. Insurance experience in this business segment was neutral as favorable long-term disability experience in employee plan and other smaller experience gains were offset by unfavorable mortality in individual insurance and higher claims at IA Auto and Home, mainly for auto coverages due to inflation but also as a result of weather events. In the wealth management segment, core earnings of $76 million for the second quarter were 15% higher than a year earlier. This performance is the result of the 12% year-over-year growth in expected earnings for SEC funds, lower expenses, and strong results from the distribution affiliates. As for our U.S. operations, Q2 core earnings were $26 million. Results in the individual insurance division were strong, supporting the core insurance service result, which is 15% higher than a year ago. The result for non-insurance activities was lower due to an unfavorable business mix and lower sales in the dealer service division. Also, we continue to invest in digital technology to improve efficiency and client experience, and will be well positioned to benefit from opportunities when sales pick up again. Continuing on slide 17, looking at the investment segment, Q2 core earnings were $106 million compared to $74 million a year earlier. This performance is attributable to the 14% core net investment result growth following the investment portfolio optimization that occurred mainly throughout 2022. Also, the second quarter result was supported by the impact of the rise in interest rate in 2022, as well as a lower income tax charge due to the tax filing adjustment as it occurs every year in June. Finally, our corporate segment recorded after-tax expenses of $52 million, resulting from the accelerated digital transformation, the enhanced employee experience to support talent retention and regulatory compliance projects. Looking at non-core items on the right side of the slide, the impact of market variations in the second quarter was unfavorable by $72 million mainly due to interest rate variations during the quarter. Please refer to slide 26 for more details on net investment results included in core earnings. Also, this quarter, assumption change led to a post-tax net reserve release of $43 million as model improvements and projection refinements were implemented following the transition to the new accounting standard. It is worth mentioning that while non-core macroeconomic variations have had a neutral impact on the first half of 2023, the recent worsening of the interest rate yield curve inversion is an unfavorable factor for core earnings in the short term. Now on to slide 18, which shows our very robust capital position. Standing at 154% at quarter end, our solvency ratio is well above our operating target of 120%. Organic capital generation of $150 million is strong, and we are on track to reach our $600 million target. Our solvency ratio continues to have little sensitivity to macroeconomic variation, and our financial leverage ratio at June 30th is low at 17.3%. As a result, the amount of capital available for deployment to support our growth strategy stands at $1.8 billion. This concludes my last remarks as the CFO of IE, and I want to take this opportunity to thank the financial community and tell you what a pleasure it has been to work with you and to exchange with you over the years. I also want to thank my team, my colleagues, the board members, and Denis for their continued support and trust, and wish them success in their continued effort in performing for all our different stakeholders. Operator, we will now take questions.

Thank you. If you are an analyst and would like to register a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the 1 followed by the 3. Once again, to register a question, please press the 14 on your telephone. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from Gabrielle Deschenes with National Bank Financial. Please proceed.

Good morning. I would like to start off with the gross drivers and the targets for this year. You touched upon a few of the items that have affected the outlook there. One, the P&C business. It's not as easy to see in your disclosures now how that one did. Can you quantify the earnings year over year for P&C and the size of the Cat losses, perhaps. And then on the yield curve, you mentioned this. I don't know if it was misspoken or something, but it sounded more like a recent phenomenon. But we've had a yield curve inversion for quite a while now. I'm wondering if I'm just not looking at the right parts of the curve. How much of an impact does the inverted yield curve have on the earnings profile of the business?

Hello, Gabriel. Jacques speaking about the P&C earnings. For the weather event, it was a 3.5 million in Q2. And beginning of July, it's a post-tax. Beginning of July, there were also events in Quebec. And my understanding at this point, it would be the same kind of magnitude. Just adds up, guys, for Q3. About the yield curve, in fact,

The P&C profit overall, because it's buried in the Canadian insurance. I'm just wondering what the absolute number is for profits there.

I don't have it on the top of my head. I know that I more have compared to expected. Compared to expected, we have $5 million after tax lower than expected. We were expecting less than last year because we knew that following the COVID situation, people were driving more. And so that's what I have on top of my head at this point, Gabriel.

Okay, that's good.

And the inverted yield curve, in fact, you're totally right. We are exposed at all, I would say, duration on the yield curve. And every quarter, there are some evolution of our liability portfolio, asset portfolio, and that is something that varies from quarter to quarter. However, at the end of the quarter, like we said, our core definition we use, we don't recognize movement of interest rate, movement of credit rate. So it means that at the end of the quarter, we have the new yield curve that will be used to calculate cost for the following quarter, and we're providing those sensitivities. We're providing those sensitivity in our slide deck. And what you will notice, what we have noticed with the current situation of our asset liability matching and the yield curve, it will be a drag. I would say between 5 and 10 cents over Q3. That's what we're expecting right now.

Maybe one thing I'd like to add. It's Denny here. I just want to add on this because the inverted yield curve may create some kind of noise when it happens. I mean, but at the end of the day, when you look on a long-term basis, obviously positive yield curve is most of the time what is happening. And keep in mind that for IEA, positive yield curve with, let's say, the level of long-term interest rate, as they are right now, I mean, they've increased significantly, I guess, is a very positive. So my conclusion is that, you know, short-term, there are some noise in this inverted yield curve, which brings some drag in the in the earnings, but long-term, it's very positive for value creation.

Okay, and Jacques, good luck in retirement and enjoy spending more time on the tractor.

Thank you very much, Gabriel.

Our next question comes from Manny Grauman with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Hi, good morning. I'll start off with Gabe's best wishes, Jacques, for... your retirement. I think I speak for everyone. All the analysts, you made our jobs easier, so thank you. In terms of the question, you highlighted factors impacting the growth outlook for 2023, and in the previous answer, you touched on one aspect of that. I'm curious, as you look to 2024, how you're viewing these factors in terms of how temporary they are, and what sense do you have in terms of in terms of those factors not being so relevant as we look into next year?

Well, let me start with, let's say, the P&C business, for example. This is short-term business, and short-term business is cyclical. We've seen that through the years. I mean, it's always been like that. And the idea right now is that the industry is repricing. So, I can see that, you know, we're going through a cycle where the results are lower. And, I mean, we've seen this for the whole industry. But the good news is that, you know, this can be repriced. And so, you know, I see the light at the end of the tunnel here for that. In terms of the mortality, I mean, Jacques can comment on that. But it's more than unknown. I mean, we've had two quarters in a row with mortality that's been negative. But we'll see going forward. And Jacques, you might comment after. And the other point is the U.S. And in the U.S., we're taking actions. I mean, to some extent, it's under our control also because we can take some actions. As Mike has mentioned, we are emphasizing big time our growth strategy, getting new dealers, increasing the pipeline. And so to some extent, you know, there's something we can do about it, even if the economic context or, let's say, the auto industry context might not be positive. So at the end of the day, when I look at everything, you know, I'm very confident about the fact that we can deliver over time, like a midterm target of, let's say, 10% on average of EPS growth. So our business model is very strong. I mean, it's not because in the short term there's been some bumps that it has changed anything about our business model. And, Jacques, you might comment on the mortality?

In fact, for the mortality, when I saw the Q1 result, at the time it was purely statistical fluctuation. The fact of having the same kind of result in Q2, we dig further. more into it. And there may be some part of it, a part of it that will be recurring, probably we associate that to the aftermath of COVID. In fact, during COVID, if you recall, I spoke about three elements that I'm seeing affecting mortality. The first one is people that prematurely die prematurely. during COVID will not die. So, again, this is something that will have been positive for 2022 and over. Second element positive is the fact that there's been a lot of research in medicine, so improving mortality, but this may be more long-term, mid-term, long-term than short-term. And the third, which was a negative, is the fact that during distanciation, people were not able to attend and go to the physician as much as they were doing before. So that's probably the ripple effect that have a stronger impact at this time. So that's the way we see it. So we believe that two-thirds, actually, of that mortality could be affected by that. And the remaining, it's testicle fluctuation. So it can come back like we saw in previous year.

Thanks for that. And I just wanted to ask on the corporate segment, you know, we've seen an increase in expenses there and you highlight a number of factors for that. And again, a similar question in terms of, you know, how much does that persist going forward? Like when I look at some of the drivers that you highlight, like, you know, related to talent retention and regulatory projects, I think, you know, The labor market is changing, so maybe some of these factors are likely to moderate relatively soon. So I'm just curious on, you know, negative 52 million in corporate this quarter. How should we think about this number going forward? Can it kind of go back to what we saw sort of in early 2022?

Okay, Jacques speaking. It won't come back to 2022 level for sure. For the remaining of the year, we expect to be in the same ballpark as what you've seen so far in 2023. In 2024, we will see there's a big, I would say, compliance project we're working on right now, and this project, the level of capitalization is low compared to most of the not NOS, but all other digital transformation projects we are doing. So overall, the way we manage expenses overall, the fact with IFRS 17 is that some, and even without IFRS 17, there are some expenses when you transform your cell that you can capitalize, some other that you cannot capitalize. And this starts today. It's when we work on the project sometimes that we are able to have the real value. So when we do forecasts, we don't have exactly all the IT solutions. So sometimes we may be off a little bit. And this is costing a little bit this year on the P&L, but that's not a big amount. And the other element also is the geography of expenses of what part affects the P&L versus what part affects the CSM. So there will be some refinement in our model for next year. But for this year, overall expenses were okay. It's just that the P&L is slightly negatively affected so far this year. Thanks for that.

Our next question comes from Doug Young with Desjardins Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Hi, good morning. Maybe we can start with just the assumption change shock. Can you talk about what that was? You know, you talked loosely about model refinements and stuff like that, but I mean, it's not an insignificant number, so I'm curious what it was. And can you talk about the mechanics of how this works? Like why does it positively impact earnings, negatively impact LICAT and CSM? Can you talk about the moving parts?

Hello, Doug. In fact, you know, IFRS 17, it's a brand-new big standard, and we have to change valuation of all insurance products. of the organization. So it's normal that we have unmature processes, and there are some places where we'll find refinement. So we were still finding refinement in IFRS 4, and it has been there for quite a long time. So this is normal. What is happening this quarter, we've made few, I would say, improvements. I will go with the mechanics first. When you do basis change related to actuarial decrements like mortality, lapse, morbidity, expenses, this will flow through the CSM. But it is calculated with the locked-in rate, and you have to do a second calculation with the current rate. the difference between both calculations will go through the PNL. So even for those actual decrements, the big part would be in CSM, but there are ripple effects in the PNL. And if you move your economic assumption, your valuation assumption for liability goes directly to the PNL. So to answer specifically for the refinement we brought this year, there's been some refinement on the CSM was more about our power product, the way we modelize power product. And on the P&L, it has to do with refinement about the different instruments we are using to support our long-term liability. I will speak here more about the different options, so we improve our modelization. And there were a second element that is really to reflect market expectation for the expected credit loss rate and our own expectations. So that were the big element that we refined this quarter.

Okay. You and I may have to sit down and talk more about this, but I'll leave it at that. uh, for, for the call. Thinking of the second question, CSM, like the impact of new insurance business declined 13% quarter of a quarter. Denny talked about how sales were strong. And if I look at, you know, Canadian individual insurance, you know, quarter of a quarter was flat. And I assume that's one of the bigger drivers of that particular line. You know, was there a mix impact? You know, what else drove the decline in that line item in the CSM?

Okay. Um, Jacques, again. And Doug, on my previous question, I should mention that we're working with a total liability of more than $30 billion. So when you said earlier that it was a big number, it's not a big number when you work with a $30 billion liability. Okay. About the CSM fund, you say, so if we look at quarter over quarter, there are a few elements there. The sales were lower, like you said. Also, there's been a business change that we made at the end of Q4. So in the CSM, we reflect those new assumptions. And it has an effect. Also, the business mix, like you said, is different. And keep in mind, guys, it's very important. A reduction of CSM doesn't mean that profitability of that business will be worse because it depends on the product you sell. A long-term guaranteed product will have a higher CSM, even if it's less profitable than the term product. So keep that in mind. It's very important. So that's why we prefer organic generation of capital that capture the cost of capital or the capital required to support the business. It's very important. Other elements also, there's been some reallocation in our supplementary information package. In fact, there were elements that last year were considered as new sales, and we had the impact in the gain and loss. So we reclassified that, and it has a negative impact on the value of new sales as well. So this is what explains those numbers.

Okay, and then if I can sneak to the last one in. Landy, you know, there's been a $28 million mark on your investment property this quarter, $48 million year-to-date. you know, a little higher than we would have expected. Can you talk about details on this? Was this all office Canada? Is there other region? I don't think you really have a big exposure outside of Canada. And then just a bit on the outlook for that investment property portfolio.

Sure, sure. First of all, you're right. It's 100% in Canada. And look, as you see, we have an overweight in office space. And the office space It's a factor in the real estate right now that there is some uncertainty. I don't expect that the headwinds will stop tomorrow. On the other hand, if you look at the quality of our portfolio, even if there's a lot of uncertainty in the short term, this should help mitigate the impact. Think about our lease term. The weighted average lease term is nine years. We have a lot of government leases. The portfolio is unlevered. Another thing I would mention is that the recent activity, the vacancy that if you look through the numbers, you'll notice that the vacancy went down very slightly. You'll also notice that actually you won't notice, but what I like is in Q1 and in Q2, our net new leases has been greater than the termination. So that means that this is a leading indicator of things getting better. And finally, one thing I would say is that we have some potential upside in the portfolio. We have a few value creation opportunities that we're pursuing. Of course, this is not something for the next quarter, but this is something that midterm, there's some upside in the portfolio.

Great. Thank you. And Jacques, all the best in retirement. Thank you.

Thank you very much, Jacques.

Our next question comes from Paul Holden with CIBC World Markets. Please proceed.

Thank you. Good morning. I guess where I want to start is try and get a little bit more or I guess narrow the range of 2023 guidance. So when you say you no longer expect it to be above 13%, but you seem to be reiterating the 10% growth objective over the medium term, I kind of think of a range of something like 10% to 13%. Is that a correct interpretation of what you're trying to tell us? Or because of the headwinds, it could be something less than your normal medium-term target?

It's Denis here. I think it would be fair to say that, and we've seen that over time, that there are some years where there's been more bumps and We've hit something lower than 10% in the past. After six months, we're at 7%. So to get to what you're talking about here, to 10% to 13%, there will have to be a significant turnover about the various factors that we mentioned. So under that condition, it could happen. But so far, after six months, 7%. So it's your guess here. But we've seen the years where it has been lower than 10%. But, I mean, our 10% is an average. So some years it's higher, some years it's lower.

Got it. Okay. Just want to drill down a little bit on the expected investment income. It was down quarter over quarter. Is that related to the yield curve inversion or is there something else going on there? And maybe it's part of that question as well, gives us a sense of sort of what we should expect in future quarters.

Jacques speaking. Yeah, it has to do with the yield curve movement that happens during Q1. So this is the main element. There are two other elements here. We bought back the PREF share, and if you look at the geography of where it has an impact, it reduced the investment income because we no longer manage the asset, and the cost of the PREF were under the line, so there's an amount there. And also, we're slightly less invested in NFI during the quarter, but mainly it's interest.

Okay. Understood. And then last question for me, I guess, is on the U.S. dealer services business and the warranty in particular. So when I look at the data points coming from the industry, it suggests higher vehicle sales. It suggests some improvement in used car pricing. It suggests some improvement in dealer incentives. Inventories are certainly building. So there's a number of factors that I would look to that would point to improving industry fundamentals, maybe not big step function. I get it, but at least Q2 looked better than Q1. So I'm wondering if there's something I'm missing here that remains a challenge and maybe it's simply just financing costs are high and therefore sales are low, but is it not correct to think that things are at least sequentially getting better for that business?

Hi, Paul. It's Mike Stickney. Yeah, I'm agreeing with what you're saying. Those are the positive things going on, and things are improving. There continue to be some headwinds at the same time, though, and it's just how it all plays out. I guess you see it in the overall sales, whether it's cars or insurance. Some of the headwinds, you know, as much as vehicle pricing is improving and there are some incentives, the data we've seen is that 45% of new car sales were still above MSRP in the second quarter. So obviously, you know, that kind of means prices are still high. We're definitely not back to pre-COVID levels. You mentioned used car prices are coming down, and that is true. That's what we're seeing as well. But strangely enough, used car sales are not showing any increase. New car sales had a pretty good increase, but used car, and maybe just, you know, the average consumer for a used car is somewhat constrained, higher interest rates, whatever concerns about the economy. And I guess, you know, the other factor in this I mentioned last quarter, higher interest rates, I see it as a head win, rather, just in terms of We're seeing lower penetrations in terms of insurance products per car kind of thing. And we're also seeing the dealers or the F&I people selling lower value products as well as a way to squeeze in some insurance into the contract, which is better than no sale, but obviously it's a bit of a headwind overall. So, you know, at this point, I'm feeling, you know, we're getting a gradual improvement. I'm feeling kind of optimistic in that we grew our sales quarter over quarter. We're increasing our dealer count. But, yeah, we're nowhere near pre-COVID levels. That's sort of where I see it.

Okay. And sorry, just to follow up on that in terms of, like, you expanded your dealer relationship 6%. And I think sales are down roughly seven year over year. So if I think going forward as those new dealer relationships roll on, then maybe something like a net neutral impact on overall sales is a reasonable expectation. Is that a right way to think about it?

I see it as a positive. If you can add dealers, you should be able to add sales.

Okay. That's it for me. And again, Jacques, thanks for all the help over the years. And congratulations and enjoy the retirement. Thank you very much, Paul.

Our next question comes from Tom McKinnon with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. And just to start, say, Jacques, all the best. And I've enjoyed our discussions and all the best to you. And thanks for all your support. So the first question, just on the core tax rate, kind of running in around 18%. I think you guys have been talking sort of like 21%, 22%. Just some color as to what happened there and what the guide is. And I have follow-up. Thanks.

First, hi, Tom. Thank you very much for your good work. And about the core tax rate, yeah, we said 21 to 23. So profit is, I would say you can use 22 as the run rate. Our profit is a little bit lower than expected. So reality is a little bit lower than that. What happened is, in fact, the true up and few other elements, the CIF stuff, so usual tax stuff that happened for insurance company.

Okay, thanks. And if we look at the organic capital that you generated, that went up quarter over quarter, and you talk about all this noise associated with the yield curve movements and things like that. it doesn't seem to have impacted capital generation. Can you talk about the outlook for capital generation still sitting on the $600 million guide this year? How much has that increased going forward? And what are the things that you would point to that would change this $600 million guide that you've got for 2023 for organic capital generation?

We're still on for the $600 million. In fact, even if profit is slightly lower, I would say capital requirements for business is slightly lower as well because of the business mix we're selling. So we are still fine with that. And you can see the different impact on the slight macroeconomic environment impact. There's been a negative impact this year. Portfolio adjustment has been positive. So we're still very optimistic about our $600 million.

And the launch with the new UL for high-end market, that has no impact on that as well? That's not going to – is that going to add to this or be neutral to it?

In fact, that product is priced according to our profitability standard, our other product as well. So we just hope it will increase sales, and that's exactly why we developed such products, so it will help by bringing more profit.

Okay, that's good. Now, then, as a final question, I guess, given the optimistic outlook here for organic capital generation, which I believe is a key performance indicator for the company, and the $1.8 billion in excess you're currently sitting on, you're very comfortable from a capital generation standpoint and an excess capital standpoint. So you have been buying back a little stock. Why not pick up on that more, especially if there's any potential weakness in the stock price? I'm assuming you would believe it would be attractively priced. Or what are your other plans for it? I mean, you talk about investments into digital spends in the company, but if you can take that question for us. Thanks.

Okay, Tom, I'd like to comment on that. It's Denny here. Great question. I get that question obviously several times. We're in a very good position. And in terms of allocation of capital, certainly the investment in technology is very important. Organic growth is key for us in all our products. We are generating more than 15% ROE. And second, obviously, we look at acquisition. And in terms of acquisition, we always have, you know, some files that we're looking at right now. I would say that at this point, probably more on the life insurance side when we look at the U.S. versus U.S. dealer where it's more like token acquisition at this point. So we are on the lookout. And we are actively buying back shares because we are generating so much excess capital as we go. So we are in a very great position to grow the organization. And just keep in mind also that we will stay quite, obviously, prudent and disciplined in the way that we acquire our organization if we do. That is something that is very important. I mean, we've seen a lot of files where we just, you know, exited because it didn't meet either our strategic intent or financially it didn't make sense. So we continue to be very disciplined in the way we allocate capital.

Okay, thanks.

Our next question comes from Mario Mendonca with TD Securities. Please proceed.

Good morning, and Jacques, first for you, thank you very much for the sort of free education you offered me and everyone else, especially as we got through IFRS 17, and all the best to you in your retirement. Let me get started by first asking a question on insured annuities. I understand the dynamics and what's driving the growth in insured annuities. What's less clear for me under IFRS 17 is how it gets reflected in your results. Is this something that would, that growth and that asset base, would it be reflected in the CSM amortization in that segment, the wealth management segment, or would the spread income be captured in the net investment result?

Thank you very much for your kind words, Mario. It will be in the CSM. So you create CSM, profitable annuity. When you sell them, you create CSM. So it will amortize into the division, to the wealth division. And, of course, there will be some investment revenue as well as you manage the spread there, which would be the trend between the expected and the actual will influence, I would say, the net core investment income.

Okay, so most of it goes through CSM, but a portion of the spread or some of the spread angle goes to investment. Okay. The references you made to inverted yield curve and the effect that that could have on your results, where is that seen? Is that seen in the investment result? It would seem logical that it would go through the investment result, or is there something else?

You're totally right. It's there.

And I think, were you implying in your response when you said $0.05 to $0.10, I think is what you said, Were you suggesting that it would be 5 cents worse than what we saw in Q2-23? Was that the one you're making?

Yeah, it's comparable to Q2, what I said. And, Mario, there are some ripple effects as well. Interest rate yield curve have some effect on the risk adjustment and CSM because you have to recalculate them, but it's minor compared to what will go to the net investment. So most of the impact will be net investment.

Okay, next question real quickly. The U.S. dealer services, your folks have, on two quarters, you referred to the mix being unfavorable to the sort of margins you generate there. Could you remind me what you mean by mix in U.S. dealer services and talk about the dynamics that are impacting that mix?

There's mix about product, but also mix with the distribution, affiliate, non-affiliate distribution. that it's less profitable with the non-affiliate. So this is what we're referring to when we speak about the distribution mix.

Why would the non-affiliate be growing and the affiliate not be growing?

Yeah, maybe, Mike, you would like to get some details out of this?

Yeah, no, Amir, it's just, you know, it's marketing stuff. You know, sometimes the market moves one way or the other. The non-affiliate clients we have are doing better and selling more. It's kind of a short-term fluctuation is the way I see it. And it's a very profitable business, but profits as a percentage of the sales or revenue are lower, but it's still quite profitable. We're happy to do that business.

But for some reason, the affiliate channel just isn't keeping pace with the non-affiliates.

Right now, that's the case, yeah.

Okay, and then finally, mortality, if the company were to adjust the mortality assumption at some point down the road, would it more likely go through CSM or through P&L?

Mortality will go through CSM. Thanks very much.

There are no further questions at this time.

Okay, thank you. Just before I go with my conclusion, I'd like to again thank Jacques. And also just to assure the market that Jacques is working very closely with Eric and the transition is going very well. So as you will realize over the next quarters, we have a lot of strength at this organization. Well, just to conclude, the business model, as we've said today, has not changed at all. We have a lot of strength in this organization. Capital is very, very strong. At the end of the day, capital is king. So we have all the tools that are necessary for us to grow. It's now for us to execute. So with that said, I wish you, if you have not taken your vacation, I wish you a great vacation. Certainly, we will take some vacation over the next couple of weeks and come back with a lot of energy. Thanks a lot.

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.