8/3/2023

speaker
Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ivanhoe Mines second quarter 2023 financial results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask the question during the session, you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To answer your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Matthew Keevil, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Please go ahead.

speaker
Matthew Keevil
Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Thank you, Operator. Hello, everyone, and good morning and good afternoon. It's my pleasure to welcome you to the Ivanhoe Mines Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. This is Matthew Keevil, and I'm the Director of IR on Corporate Comms with Ivanhoe Mines. On the line today from IBM, we have Founder and Executive Co-Chair Robert Friedland, President Marna Cloutier, Chief Financial Officer David Van Heerden, Chief Operating Officer Mark Farron, and Senior Vice President Corporate Development and Investor Relations Alex Pickard. We will finish today's event with a question and answer session. You can submit a question using the Q&A box on the webcast page as well as through the conference operator via your phone line. Please do contact our IR team directly for follow-up questions that are not addressed during the call. And before we begin... I'd like to remind everyone that today's event will contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Details of the forward-looking statements are contained in our August 3rd news release as well as on CDAR Plus and at www.ivanhomeminds.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Ivan Home Minds founder and executive co-chair Robert Friedland for some opening remarks. Go ahead, Robert.

speaker
Robert Friedland
Founder and Executive Co-Chair

Yes, thank you very much to all of you who are taking the time and trouble to attend this call. I'm addressing you from London, England, having flown from Washington, DC and New York to get here. I'm happy to report in the last few days that the United States Department of Energy has placed a number of the metals that we have under development and are already producing on the critical materials list. And with the support of the United States government, it's now, for the first time, I can address you with copper being on the critical materials list, as well as many other metals that we have in Ivanhoe mines, like nickel and platinum and gallium and germanium. So we've had a very good quarter, not only at Comocacoula, which has continued to break a number of records, and is running at least on schedule and on budget, but also at our other two projects, at Kapushi and our new plans for the Platte Reef. And I appreciate that there's an enormous amount of new information in our MD&A, but I can say that our teams are executing perfectly. We've never been as strong a position as we are today in our corporate affairs, and our dreams are expanding. And we deeply appreciate the support we've had from the Congolese government, the South African government, and our incredibly dedicated workforce. So I'll be back to you later to talk about exploration. I want to turn this over to Marna, our remarkable president, and she'll tell you about how things have been going. Marna?

speaker
Marna Cloutier
President

Thank you, Robert, for those kind words. Good afternoon and good morning, everyone. We are very pleased to announce another quarter of operational and project execution excellence. A few key highlights this quarter and beyond include we achieved record production in the second quarter with close to 104,000 tons of copper produced at Kamauka Kula. Our cash cost trended towards the lower end of our cash cost guidance at $1.41 per pound of copper produced. And since entering phase one commercial production on the 1st of July of 2021, the Kamoa-Kakula joint venture has generated in excess of 1.8 billion of net cash from operating activities. This has funded both the phase two and phase three expansions to date. That is truly remarkable. With the completion of phase three, which includes additional mining areas and additional 5 million tonne per annum concentrator, a power project, and a smelter, copper production capacity at Kamoa is earmarked to expand to 650,000 tons of copper per annum from the end of 2024. Our phase one construction activities at Platriff is advancing well, and we are on schedule for production in the third quarter of next year. And similarly, production will commence at Kapushi in the third quarter of next year, with key highlights this quarter, the conclusion of our $80 million dollar DRC finance facility for Kapushi, and our negotiations with Jechemins and Glencore for the larger $250 million offtake link facility remaining on track. What we are probably proudest of is our health and safety statistics. We had a 40% reduction in our total recordable injury frequency rate across all sites during 2022. This was operating, expanding, and building new projects. We have continued this trajectory with a mark reduction in our total recordable injury frequency rate across all our sites, and our overall performance is well below the industry standard of 2.66. What you will see on your screen in front of you is our Kamoa Centre of Excellence, and we are extremely excited about the progress at the centre. It's a world-class learning institution that's currently being constructed very close to Kamoa Kokula. The vision is to train the future leaders of the copper belt in mining-related disciplines, and then to provide practical experience at our world-class mine. Our first students will start in September and will be funded through bursaries by Kamoa, and an inaugural ceremony is currently planned for November of this year. With that as a brief introduction, I will now hand over to David van Yerden, our Chief Financial Officer, to take you through our financials for the quarter.

speaker
David Van Heerden
Chief Financial Officer

Over to you, David. Thank you, Martha, and good day to everyone joining the call today. Kamauka Kula sold close to 102,000 tons of payable copper in the second quarter of 2023, a 17% increase from approximately 87,000 tons in Q1, resulting from the completion of the default making in the first quarter of 2023 and the inventory levels normalizing. Because of this increase, the microcooler achieved record revenue of $702 million, despite the lower quarter-on-quarter. The realized proper price for Q2 was $3.79 per pound in the second quarter, down 6% from Q1. Kamau Kakula's cash costs have continued to be managed exceptionally well over the past year, with the quarter coming in at $1.41 per pound of payable profit reduced. This is right at the lower end of our guidance range of $1.40 to $1.50 per pound. As a result, the EBITDA of $457 million is almost the same as the high water mark we achieved in Q1, and we have maintained our strong margins at 65%. On this slide, we have presented the main drivers for the quarter on quarter change in EBITDA. As mentioned before, we had a significant increase in tons sold, which drove a $70 million increase in EBITDA. However, this was offset by the 5% decrease in the average copper price quarter on quarter, as well as the decrease in the price at which provisioned price sales were realized in Q2, which was $3.79 per pound, down from $4.04 per pound in the first quarter. What is very pleasing about this slide is that the items within our control, being the time sold, logistics cost to some extent, and also cost of sales, show positive movements in terms of EBITDA. You can see on this slide a graphical representation of where our C1 cost came in at, the bottom of the range on the global cost curve. It's worth highlighting again that the transformational impact on cash cost we expect from the 500,000 tonne per annum on-site smelter, which is being constructed as part of Phase 3. Once the smelter is operational, we expect it to drive us to the lowest cost quartile and to below $1.20 per pound. We're especially proud of our cash cost record in the context of significant inflation seen elsewhere in the industry. On this slide, we have presented the change in Kamaukakula's cash cost in comparison to our peers, including large copper miners and segmented copper division reporting from the majors. The top chart shows we were the only company in this group to meet our 2022 guidance range. The second chart shows the performance year-on-year. Despite the ongoing inflationary pressures, our cash cost is only 5% higher year-on-year compared to the others being in the range of 17% to 30% higher. The bottom chart is looking at H1 2023 in comparison to reported guidance from the start of the year. We are the only company below the midpoint of our guidance Half-year reported results with many companies already significantly over guidance. All this means that Kumao Kukula is delivering extra margin to shareholders as the copper price increases. Iberno's group level adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $172 million and was consistent with Q1. Our share of profit from the Kumao Kukula joint venture was down by $10 million in the quarter due to unrealised foreign exchange recognises on indirect taxes receivables with the weakening of the Congolese franc against the dollar. On the right-hand side, we have presented our reported net profit alongside normalised net profit, which excludes the fair value adjustments on the convertible notes for each period and Kapushi's deferred tax income recognised in the second quarter. we have recorded a steady increase in profit through the commissioning and ramp-up of Phase 2, with a profit of $87 million in Q2 and a normalized profit of $114 million. CAPEX guidance and spending plans remain unchanged at each of Kamal Kukula, Platrif and Kika. And importantly, as Alex and Marna will take you through, development is tracking well. The expenditure rate is set to increase at each of the projects in the second part of 2023 as we enter the most intensive phase of the build. However, we are likely to come in at the lower end of our guidance range this year, which isn't related to project timing, but simply timing of cash flow sports, which we expect to spill into 2023. Ivano-Mind has a healthy cash balance of $393 million and plenty of balance sheet flexibility. Kamau Kakula also has a healthy cash balance of $333 million at order end and uses its unsecured overdraft facility of $150 million in order to keep the majority of Kamau's cash resources offshore. Blackreef's $150 million senior debt facility is progressing well, as is the $250 million off-deck finance facility for Kikuchi. We also secured an $80 million working capital facility for Kikuchi with a local DRC bank or bank during the quarter, of which $40 million was drawn in Q2. The development of the domestic DRC banking market and lending has been very positive, and we are also very pleased to report that the facility bears a very competitive interest rate of only 8%. I now hand over to Alex Picard, our Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations, to commence the operations and projects.

speaker
Alex Pickard
Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations

Thank you, David, and good day to everybody on the line. As David mentioned, we will take you through a brief update on our fantastic operations projects, as well as our exploration initiatives that Robert will take you through. I'll start on the outset by saying that we will be stealing the thunder of our COO, Mark Farron, who is on the line from Kamoa currently, but he will be available for Q&As at the end of the call. So starting as usual with Kamoa Kukula, this slide in many ways has become quite predictable, but really that speaks volumes for how incredibly well the operation has been performing. So as David mentioned with the sales, it was also a record quarter, both from a throughput and a production point of view. Kukula milled 2.2 million tons at 5.2% copper grade for production of close to 104,000 tons. Included in that quarter was a record month of 35,856 tons in May. And we also got very close to that record last month in July. So these are outstanding production numbers, which are in excess of 420,000 tons on an annualized basis. During the quarter and afterwards, we also achieved daily records in terms of mill throughput, which was close to 30,000 tons in a single day. And that's equivalent to approximately 10 million tons annualized after accounting for availability. So that's much higher than the new nameplate capacity of 9.2 million tons following the debottomlecking. Recovery, as usual, have continued strongly at 87% for the quarter. We also achieved 88% in July. I'll talk about that in a bit more detail on the next slide. And perhaps just a word on the power situation. We had much less downtime in the second quarter due to DRC grid instability than the first quarter. I would say the situation is not perfect today, but we're still working very hard with Snell. which is the DRC power utility on grid scale improvements that we've described previously and are laid out in the press release. But in the meantime, we have been steadily increasing our backup power generation capacity, which now stands at close to 50 megawatts. And we have another 30 megawatts arriving later this year, which is equivalent to the full power load of both phase one and phase two concentrators. Finally, just to note, with over 197,000 tons produced year-to-date of copper in concentrate, I think we are confidently restating our guidance of 390,000 to 430,000 tons of copper that we set at the start of the year. So I mentioned the copper recoveries before, and we recently put out some very promising test work that was conducted by Kamoaka Cooler. So obviously, Kamoaka Cooler is among the very highest grade copper operations globally, with a head grade of 5.5% or so. And we're very pleased today that the concentrator is performing in excess of its design recovery rate of 86%. However, when you look at the remaining 14%, based on the very high feed grade, this does mean that the tailing stream is still running at approximately 0.8% copper. What you can see from the chart at the bottom of the page is that this grade is effectively significantly higher than the average feed grade of copper mines globally today. There are good reasons for this, and the main reason is that the remaining copper is hosted in a very fine-grained copper sulfide. which requires extra fine grinding to liberate that copper unit. So in order to address this, we've been doing a lot of test work at Kamoa. There are 13 work streams in total to unlock this extra production and extra revenue. The promising test work that we announced is based on quite conventional technology, so that's ultrafine grinding, followed by flotation and concentration. And the early results indicate that we can recover up to 65% of the copper from the tailing stream at a grade of just under 1%. So this would make it possible, if you look at it in totality, to increase our overall recovery from the 87% that we reported in the last quarter towards the mid-90s, which could be an extra 50,000 tons of copper or so production based on the current run rate. We've run internal numbers, and this takes into account the extra capital cost and the operating cost of doing this, and the economics are very positive. So the plan now is that we will conclude this work over the coming months to bring it to an investment decision, but we're also evaluating this test work alongside other non-conventional technologies that may potentially yield even better results. Moving into a quick construction update on phase three and starting with the concentrator. Overall, the expansion of the mine and the concentrator, as well as the Inga 2 turbine upgrade and the smelter project are on time for the fourth quarter of next year and on budget, as David mentioned. You can see in the photo here that the phase three concentrator is now really taking shape. It's 38 percent complete overall. But within that, we have 85 percent of the steel and plate work already shipped, 90 percent of the concrete poured. And we remind the listeners that this is the same team who delivered the phase one and phase two concentrators so successfully. So I think we're very excited about what's to come in the next year. Just looking at the smelter briefly in isolation, the smelter is really a mega project, I think you could say in its own right. It has a capital cost of $1 billion, of the total of roughly 2.5 for the whole of phase three. So here in the photo, you have a great shot which shows the direct to blister furnace and the off-gas handling facilities really starting to take shape. In terms of overall project completion, we're at 56% and the major equipment deliveries are starting to come in this quarter. That includes some of the largest pieces, single pieces of equipment that have ever been delivered into the DRC. So we're very much looking forward to that. And finally, just from me at least, moving to regional logistics in the DRC. So we've been talking for a while now about exporting from the DRC via Angola along what is known as the Lubito Rail Corridor. The Lobito corridor would very much be transformational for Kamoa-Kukula, and you can see that from this map. The distance to Lobito of 1600 kilometers is approximately half the trucking distance to Durban today. Durban is where approximately half of our volumes are going today. And not only that, there would be significantly less carbon emissions associated with shipping by rail rather than road. So not only will we expect this route to be faster, but as a result of being faster, it should be more cost efficient and will also create much needed competition between the different logistics corridors in the copper belt. It's also just worth noting that the Lobito Corridor, which stands today, there is an existing rail in the DRC, it makes its journey from the DRC-Angola border to the town of Kolwazi, which is just to the east of Kamoa-Kakula, and it actually runs directly through the Western Forth and Licenses and within five kilometers of the Kamoa-Kakula boundary. Just looking at the bigger picture, we have seen some recent political movements here. In May, the U.S. government announced their support for the Lobito Corridor project, which includes a potential $250 million financing from the DFC. So we're watching this space very closely. And with that, I will now pass back to our executive co-chairman for an update on exploration, starting with the Western Foreland.

speaker
Robert Friedland
Founder and Executive Co-Chair

Well, thank you. It's my favorite subject. We're driven by exploration. We have a very large drilling program underway, both at the Makoko resource and the high-grade Tiala resource. And we will be telling the market a lot more about that in the fall. And in addition, we have a major exploration program going on, which couldn't possibly have a better hunting ground to find more Tier 1 copper. So when we get past the dog days of summer, I'm sure we'll have a lot more to say about the incredible mineral potential in the Western Forelands. The fact that the United States government has come in to support the Western Corridor Railroad through Angola also opens up the entire Western Foreland landholding to rail access. This is enormously attractive for the development of future mines in the Western Forelands, which is unquestionably the best hunting ground for copper that exists on this particular planet. I'm also very excited about the Mokopani feeder. PhD geologists think it could be the source of the entire Bushwold complex, which is the world's richest metallogenic province. We've been doing a lot of geophysics there. There's some very sophisticated gravity work being done there. All of this will coalesce in drilling at the Mokopani feeder, which is an opportunity for us to find additional Tier 1 supergiant sulfide nickel and associated precious metals systems only about 10 kilometers away from our shafts that you see pictured here under Mokopani feeder. You can see one of the aircraft doing the airborne geophysics. It's only six miles away to the Mokopani feeder. A Tier 1 discovery in either the Western Forelands or the Mocapani feeder will launch Mines into the ranks of the Tier 1 major mining companies. With that, let's go back and talk about the Platte Reef Mine. Is it Alex?

speaker
Marna Cloutier
President

Yeah, thank you, Robert. That's me. I will quickly provide a construction update on both Platte Reef and Kapushi and then we will open the floor for Q&A. So we're here looking at the construction activities on site for the plant. It's advancing well and it's on track for first production in the third quarter as we mentioned earlier. Most of our long lead equipment orders were placed and scheduled for delivery in the third quarter of 2023. 160 tons of the total of 1,500 tons of steel were erected to date. And from an underground point of view, more than 2,000 meters of lateral development has been completed to date across all three levels, the 750 meter, 850 meter, and 950 meter level. And we're advancing at a rate of approximately 200 meters per month. Once we've installed the crusher and loading feeder on the 950-meter level, which is expected at the end of August, the rate of lateral underground development is expected to continue to increase to approximately 300 meters per month through the remainder of the year. And then from January onwards, we expect our advancement rates to increase to approximately 500 meters per month. Looking at the next slide, we initiated an optimization study at Platte Reef, and this is to potentially accelerate production from phase two. The study will consider converting the 5.1 meter diameter ventilation and secondary access shaft, shaft three, to a production shaft with the capability to hoist. Shaft 3 is currently being reamed with approximately 340 meters of the 950 meters completed to date and it's planned for completion in the fourth quarter of this year. The manufacturing of the auxiliary winder for shaft 3 headgear is also well advanced and on schedule. And then Shaft 2 construction at Platte Reef, the Shaft 2 headgear concrete structure was completed early in the quarter to a height of approximately 79 meters. Shaft 2's overall height will be approximately 100 meters above ground and that's including the steel structure that will house the main winders. Robert always jokes that we should put a revolving restaurant at the top of the headgear. The Shaft II headgear internal structure steel construction is also progressing very well. The kibble and stage winder civil construction is nearing completion with the winder deliveries planned for December of this year. The kibble winder ropes were recently delivered and drilling of the pilot drill hole for the reaming of Shaft II, which we commenced in February of this year, has reached the shaft bottom and preparations are now underway to commence reaming shaft 2 to an initial diameter of 3.1 meters. And raised boring will commence from the 950-meter level once we establish bottom access. And then last but not least, we move over to Kapushi. In late April, we announced the signing of a tripartite off-take and financing term sheet between Kapushi, Jechemins, and Glencore. The offtake is for 100% of Kapushi's zinc concentrates, between 400,000 and 600,000 dry metric tons per annum over a five-year term. The offtake and financing term sheet is subject to the execution of final binding agreements, which we expect to conclude in conjunction with the new Kapushi joint venture agreement in the next month or two. And then, as we mentioned before, we also reached a term facility for $80 million with raw bank It's the largest domestic bank in the DRC with a loan book expected to reach over a billion by the end of 2024. It's just indicative of the economic activity in the DRC. If we look at the underground construction at Capuche, the development activity is ramping up. We're 20% ahead of schedule. We've completed 1,526 meters of lateral development year to date. And mining of the big zinc ore body with grades in excess of 35% will commence ahead of schedule in January of 2024. And this will be stockpiled pending plant commissioning. And then last but not least, this is a picture of the plant construction. The 800,000 tonne per annum concentrator is over 50% complete. Detail design is complete and ahead of schedule, and procurement activities are nearing completion with only five equipment packages outstanding. To date, 15 of the total 73 equipment packages have been delivered to site, with a number, including the ball mill, currently en route. And that concludes our presentation for today. I will now hand over to Matt to handle Q&A.

speaker
Matthew Keevil
Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Thanks very much, Marna. We will now begin the question and answer session. Firstly, I'll hand it back to the operator to proceed with any questions waiting on the line. So we'll get the queue going for dial-in questions. And then following clearing the line, we'll look what we have on the webcast. So please go ahead, operator.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Lawson Winder of Bank of America Global Research. Your line is now open.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Analyst, Bank of America Global Research

Fantastic. Thank you very much, operator, and good morning, afternoon, evening. Everybody on the Ivanhoe team, thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the western foreland. Very exciting that we're approaching the release of a first resource. So one question on the resource and one question generally on western foreland. So on the resource, are we expecting an inferred resource or is there extensive enough drilling that there could be some level of M&I coming with that? And then secondly, what is your latest vision on how Western Foreland ultimately gets developed. Do you see it being developed by Ivanhoe with a partner or potentially Ivanhoe developing it on its own? Thanks very much.

speaker
Robert Friedland
Founder and Executive Co-Chair

Marna, do you want to take a stab at that?

speaker
Alex Pickard
Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations

Well, why don't I take the first part, Robert? Sure. Which is just to say that the resource will have an indicated portion and it will have an inferred portion. So in answer to the first part. In terms of... Sorry, Robert, was that you?

speaker
Robert Friedland
Founder and Executive Co-Chair

No, it wasn't.

speaker
Alex Pickard
Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations

Go ahead. So in terms of partnership more than the second part, you know, I think... ...messages, it's far too soon to say. You know, Makoko and Keala is really just the beginning of what we think we have at the well-informed... There is no reason why there can't be more Kamoa-Kakula scale and grade deposits within the Western Fallen. So, you know, in many ways, it seems to be looking into partnership when all of the variables are within our control today. That's, you know, we have more than enough money to go exploring. We have the expertise in-house and we have the exact same team working on this who discovered Kamoa-Kakula, the Bonanza zone, Makoto and so on, continues to evolve and improve. So there are things that we're learning this year about the Western Fulham that we certainly didn't know last year, which is very exciting. So, you know, if we were to ever go down that route of partnership, I think it would need to be something quite spectacular to entice us. But perhaps I'll let Robert comment on anything else.

speaker
Robert Friedland
Founder and Executive Co-Chair

Yeah, you know, we're no longer a junior mining company in Austin. We're a major mining company. We have execution capability to engineer, design, and construct mines that I think is the best in the industry. We're delivering on time, on schedule, under budget. Nobody else is. So we don't need a partner in the Western Forelands. We have been approached by most everybody you could think of to get exposure to copper. in the Democratic Republic of the Congo because that's where you can produce green copper. We have hydroelectric power. The main power line that we're stringing from the Inga Dam into the Western Forelands is designed for 900 megawatts of carrying capacity. It's enough to build a zillion mines. So where in the world can you find 5%, 6%, 7% copper with hydroelectricity and no ice or snow? We don't need a partner, but there sure is a hell of a lot of parties that would like to be our partner, and it's just too early to talk about that now. But thank you for evidencing some interest in the subject.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Analyst, Bank of America Global Research

Thank you for those responses. And then maybe if I could just get your thoughts on the libido corridor and when you think this project could actually be realized to its potential where Ivanhoe can benefit from that logistics option.

speaker
Robert Friedland
Founder and Executive Co-Chair

Last quarter, we reported that initial shipment over the Levito quarter should happen this year, 2023, and then it'll increase into 2024. an increase in the 202.5. We welcome the support of the United States government. Actually, the president's most senior representative, the president of the United States at the G7 meeting announced American government support for the corridor. So that says it all. The G7 nations view it as critically important because where else is the copper metal going to come from for the greening of the world economy if not from the Democratic Republic of the Congo? In our talks with Trafigura, we're actually hoping that initial shipments happen before Christmas and then they just keep increasing.

speaker
Lawson Winder
Analyst, Bank of America Global Research

That's fantastic news. Thank you for taking my questions and keep up the great work. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question at this time, please press star 1-1 on your touchtone telephone. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew McKitchick. With BMO Capital Markets, your line is now open.

speaker
Andrew McKitchick
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Thank you. Congratulations on another strong and multi-record quarter. Maybe if we could just get a couple of comments from Mark Barron on the Phase 1, Phase 2 combined plant post-sea bottlenecking on how it's operating and what the prospects are for continuing to optimize that. those two initial circuits, whether there's room now or does it have to wait for being in conjunction with phase three online to kind of optimize the whole thing together.

speaker
Mark Farron
Chief Operating Officer

Hey Andrew, how are you? I hope it's good. Phase one and phase two, I think Moana mentioned that and Alex mentioned earlier that they sort of, we're definitely hitting the numbers of the 9.1 million tonnes that we had planned to do and we're getting the recoveries of around 88%. which I think is good, it's solid. And then what Alex spoke about with the ultra-fine ground, getting the extra seven-ish odd percent recovery mid-90s, I think is a massive breakthrough for us. We will fast-track that, like we always do, and apply that to phase three. That's our thinking. unless we get something that's better. There's other studies. There's quite a few studies that are running in parallel. But if we could get another 7% recovery across the whole property, we will take it very quickly. So I think in terms of things running, Phase 3 is on track nicely. It will be there and thereabouts slightly early. We expect it to be slightly early, I guess. And then we'll apply that same thinking to Phase 3 to get the extra recoveries going. So I think you're more or less steady state with phase one and phase two. Between nine million, maybe long term a bit more, nine and a half, 10 million tons per annum, 88% recovery for now, and then pushing it with these new projects to get better recoveries, and then another five million tons coming out of phase three. It's supposed to be quarter three, quarter four next year, but I think maybe a bit earlier. So it's going pretty well.

speaker
Andrew McKitchick
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Thank you, Mark. Maybe just a follow-up question. I'm not sure for who, but what should be an expected timeline for this dedicated crossing at Kipushi of the border? You guys had quite a bit of disclosure in the press release today about ongoing plans for a road on the Congolese side and actual improvements of roads on the other side already. But when does that translate into, you know, crossing the border there?

speaker
Marna Cloutier
President

Andrew, maybe I can venture an answer here. So there's multiple parts to the border. The first critical part for us for Kapushi is a bypass road to avoid the trucks running through town. That section of the border project we envision to embark on within the next two to three months. to have it ready for when we start production next year. That will be rolled up into a bigger border project, which will be a one-stop border crossing. It is not on the critical path in terms of getting the volumes of capuche out. We've got Sacana as well as Casabalesa as options to use to export the project, but obviously it will alleviate problems some of the congestion at the border. We are also looking at rail options, running rail loops into Zambia and then to track from Zambia onwards. So there's a number of alternatives on the table to ensure that we move the product efficiently as soon as we go online at Kapushi. But border project, it's difficult to put an exact timeline to it because it's cross-country, discussions and approvals that we require, but hopefully we can get that done within a year's time.

speaker
Andrew McKitchick
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Well, thank you very much. I'll pass the microphone to the next speaker. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. I would now like to hand the call back over to you, Matthew.

speaker
Matthew Keevil
Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Thanks, operator. And now we'll turn our attention to a few questions that are coming in from the website. And we'll just group them together because there's a few that are a little bit similar. But first and foremost, staying on the DRC logistics side, Alex and Mark, I think this might be for you. Just a little bit more color on the power situation. You mentioned it being a bit more improved as well as just general logistics currently in the DRC and how that's progressing.

speaker
Mark Farron
Chief Operating Officer

Do you want me to do it, Alex? Yeah, please. Okay. So in terms of the power, maybe just going back a little bit, I guess we've built quite a good relationship with Snell, which is the DRC electrical network supplier, over years. I mean, we started engaging them from about 2014, and we started executing a project to refurbish Marengusha Power Station. all six turbines. We started that project, I think, in early 2015, and we've basically rebuilt a power station, all of the turbines, 78 megawatts of power, which is now running very well. We've taken on, at Inga 2, a G25 unit, which is a big turbine, it's 178 megawatts. And that will be completed in quarter four next year. There's quite a lot of detail that we normally release in the press releases monthly and quarterly on that project in particular. At the end of last year, we picked up that there were quite a few instability issues in the grid, the DLC grid. So it was sort of problems that were in the grid but impacting the total the total country, not just our project, so basically the total country. So we initiated a study with Stucky, which is our EPCM contractor that's basically been working with us since 2014, and we studied the whole network. And we've identified work that needs to take place to restore complete stability to that network. And it's more or less, it's an increase in our scope that we're now adding into our budget, but it's basically a loan agreement with Snell. We've identified all the issues that need to be dealt with. And I guess if I summarize them, it's more compensation issues, so synchronous compensators at two different distribution points in the network, 1,700 kilometers apart. There's some STATCOM upgrades that need to take place here in the Kasi. There's some lines that need to be strengthened and there's capacitation that needs to be introduced in various areas to manage the reactive power in the system. And then there's also simple things like grid monitoring and the ability of Snell to be able to switch off users that are not basically towing the line when they tell them to reduce usage and things like that. So that part of the project is kicking off now as we speak. And I believe in a year's time we'll have a much more stable grid. So that's the one portion. The other portion is we have engaged with Zambia, CEC, the company, which is Copper Belt Energy Corporation, to supply a firm 30 megawatts of power directly to Kamoa through the same network, through the Snell network. So the wheeling goes back through Snell. Obviously, there's a relationship that you need to have with Snell in the first place because it goes through their infrastructure. Obviously, that infrastructure needs to work properly. That agreement is almost there. We've got heads of agreement signing off this month in August. We should draw from that power source from September. We're looking to increase that power supply next year to about 100 megawatts. Those That kind of decision helps us to expand, helps us to bring, if we're all going to commission early our phase three stuff, then we should have a firm supply from Zambia in place to assist us with that as well. So the big picture to me, and besides that, we're putting enough megawatts of diesel, so generator power, to be able to run phase one, phase two, and phase three. if there's any kind of load shedding or any kind of blackout. So I believe if we stabilize the grid, we can have a stable grid. We allow and capacitate Snell to manage their customers well. We're putting in a maintenance agreement that goes along with this. We are working with the Zambians to create another firm supply of up to 100 megawatts, and we have the backup generator power. to protect us in the event of major load shedding. So I think if we put all of this in place, by the end of next year, we'll sit with a very stable Kamoa copper, and that's necessary because we are a very big player now. With phase three coming on, we're going to be producing a lot of tons per hour, probably around a million dollars per hour that we would lose if we have to have load shedding, all that sort of thing. So I think we're protecting ourselves nicely. We're working in the two countries. We've built up excellent relationships. We've identified the major issues and we're addressing them.

speaker
Matthew Keevil
Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

That's great. Thanks, Mark. And just moving on here, I think the next one here is probably best suited for Robert. I've got quite a few questions on gallium and critical minerals here, Robert. Maybe talking a little bit about copper's inclusion. on the DOE list, but also China's activities in relation to restricting gallium, germanium, and sort of the implications of that strategically for a mine like Cappucci.

speaker
Robert Friedland
Founder and Executive Co-Chair

Yeah, I'm quite distressed about the downward spiral in American-Chinese relations. We have each other in a death grip that has to be relaxed. The United States has told China that they can't get less than five nanometer chips from producers like NVIDIA and Cisco. And so, you know, we're saying they can't buy our sophisticated chips. And so President Xi responded by saying, well, then you need a license to buy the gallium and the germanium that they produce and refine that we need to make the chips in the first place that we're going to embargo. And you see this again where, you know, the Chinese are very nervous about our support in Taiwan. and perhaps relaxing the one China policy. And so all of a sudden, the Chinese are appearing in Cuba. So it looks like what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Now, capuchin was historically the largest producer of germanium in the world. The zinc ore body is also very, very rich in gallium. So in response to inquiries from the United States government, we have provided the statistics on the gallium and germanium at Capuchin that we never even bothered to put in the economics. We just discounted it to zero. But since this trade war has erupted and intensified both under the Trump administration and now under the Biden administration, we may get into a situation where you literally need a telescope to see the price of gallium and germanium. And so We are now looking at the possibility of producing a zinc smelter, producing 99.999 electrolytic zinc and recovery of both gallium and germanium and indium and other metals that are there in the big zinc ore body. It's perfectly possible. It's just capital. And if governments want to provide us that capital, that would be in perfect alignment with Congolese government policy. Everywhere we go, we see governments wanting to see as much downstream addition of value to a country's metal endowment. That's why we're building a copper smelter in the Congo and a state-of-the-art and ultra-clean smelter at that. And so the zinc smelter and downstream refinery is not impossible. for capuchin because that's where the gallium and the germanium arise. But for our shareholders, that would just be an unanticipated windfall. And we'll just have to see how the situation evolves in the next six months. Thank you for asking the question. We love it when you point out the hidden value in the company.

speaker
Matthew Keevil
Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Thanks very much, Robert. And I think we have time for one more. And the next most popular, I think, Marna, this would be best suited for you. It's just a quick update on the DRC political climate. We know there's an election coming up. So just sort of what you're seeing in country, et cetera, would be great. Thanks.

speaker
Marna Cloutier
President

Thanks, Matt. So there's still some financial and logistical challenges to address.

speaker
Marna Cloutier
President

the elections, but the official stance of government is that we are still on track for elections on the 20th of December. Voter lists have been finalized and the candidates for the legislature have been in the end of last month. Presidential candidates submit their formal applications at the start of September and then we expect things to really start heating up. We can see some tensions. Obviously, we are monitoring things mainly in the main urban areas. And, you know, we always keep an eye out during election season to ensure that our sites are secure, safe. But, you know, it's sort of a watching grief at this point in time.

speaker
Matthew Keevil
Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

That's great. Thanks, Morna. And that sort of ends the questions we have for today. So this kind of concludes the call. So thank you again, everyone, for attending. And we look forward to speaking with you again soon on the many exciting milestones coming forward for Ivanhoe Mines in 2023. So with that, I'll pass it back to the operator to wrap up the call. Thanks very much.

speaker
Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

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