Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust's fourth quarter 2023 financial results conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. And if at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. Also note that this call is being recorded on Thursday, February 15, 2024. and I would like to turn the conference over to Philip Fraser, President and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining Killam Apartment REIT's Q4 2023 Year-End Financial Results Conference Call. I am here today with Robert Richardson, Executive Vice President, Dale Noseworthy, Chief Financial Officer, and Aaron Cleveland, Senior Vice President of Finance. Slides to accompany today's call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, under Events and Presentations. Now ask Erin to read our cautionary statement.

Thank you, Philip. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements with respect to Killam Apartment REIT and its operations, strategies, financial performance conditions, or otherwise. The actual results and performance of Killam discussed here today could differ materially from those expressed or implied by the such statements. Such statements involve numerous inherent risks and uncertainties, and although Killam management believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that future results, levels of activity, performance, or achievements will occur as anticipated. For further information about the inherent risks and uncertainties in respect to forward-looking statements, please refer to Killam's most recent annual information form and other securities regulatory filings found online on CEDAR Plus. All forward-looking statements made today speak only as of the date which this presentation refers, and Killam does not intend to update or revise any such statements unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws.

Thank you, Erin. We are very pleased with our strong financial and operational results for the fourth quarter in the year ending December 31, 2023. We achieved 7.8% same property NOI growth across the portfolio. which included 7.6% same-property NOI growth in our appropriate portfolio, 3.5% same-property NOI growth in our manufactured home community section, and 15.8% same-property NOI growth for our commercial properties. Just like 2022, last year's multifamily residential fundamentals in Canada were the strongest we have seen in our 21-year history. Killam earned $1.15 per unit FFO, which is a 3.6% increase from $1.11 in 2022. And we made progress on our strategic targets as shown on slide four. We grew our portfolio, the completion of Civic 66, the governor, and the purchase of Nolan Hill phase two in December. We also completed the disposition of $169 million of properties. We are optimistic about the opportunities ahead and focus on growing our portfolio through developments and acquisitions, growing our cash flow, and increasing the underlying value of our assets. Dale will take us through our financial results, followed by Robert, who will provide us with an operational update. I will conclude with an update on our current and recent developments in capital allocation strategy. I will now hand it over to Dale.

Thanks, Bill. Slide 5 highlights Kiln's financial performance. Killam earned FFO per unit of $1.15, up 3.6% from last year. ASFO per unit was $0.97, up 4.3% from 2022. Killam's same-property NOIs, FFO, and ASFO growth due for and for the year are summarized on slide 6. Growth in FFO and AFFO was attributable to increased NOI from our same property portfolio and incremental contributions from our three developments completed in 2022. These gains were partially offset by higher interest expense as we refinanced at higher interest rates during the year. Q4 was another strong quarter with top-line growth continuing to drive positive results. Same property revenue growth of 5.4% was driven by higher rental rates across all three business segments. Combined with effective cost containment, Kiln same property NOI was up 8.8% in the quarter, driving a 210 basis point operating margin improvement. The weighted average rental increase chart on the top of slide 7 captures the increase in rents based on the leases that came into effect each period. This chart shows that in Q4, we achieved a weighted average increase of 7.5% for new and renewing leases that started from October to December. This blended rental rate increase is made up of 3.4% rent growth on lease renewals and an average increase of 19.8% on unit turns from new tenants moving in during the quarter. Strong fundamentals in our markets support wide mark-to-market spreads, and we're harnessing our internal data analytics to ensure that our team is capturing this top-line growth when units turn. Slide 8 illustrates our total same-property operating expenses. Effective cost management and lower property taxes in PEI and New Brunswick resulted in modest same-property total operating expense growth of 1.6% for the year. During Q4, same-property operating expenses were down 0.3%. supported by quarter-over-quarter savings in both natural gas and insurance costs. After realizing significant price escalation from both these line items over the last few years, we're pleased to see these costs start to moderate. This trend has kept up so far, 2024, with savings in natural gas and insurance costs in the first part of this year. Kilm's debt maturity profile, which can be seen on slide 9, includes average apartment mortgage rates by year versus prevailing CMHC insured mortgage rates. In 2023, Kilham refinanced $252 million of maturing mortgages with approximately $320 million of new debt at a weighted average interest rate of 4.89%, 183 basis points higher than the average rate on the maturing debt. Refinancing at higher rates is expected to lead to increased interest expense However, this increase is expected to be gradual due to the staggered nature of Kiln's debt ladder. We're pleased with the successful strengthening of our balance sheet in 2023. Kiln's key debt metrics are included on slide 10. Through a disciplined capital allocation process, we reduced our variable rate debt by $150 million, ending 2023 with only 3% of our total debt being variable. We ended the year with debt to normalized EBITDA of 10.29 times, down nicely from 11.21 times at year-end 2022. Also, debt as a percentage of total assets decreased by 240 basis points to 42.9%. I will now turn the call over to Robert, who will discuss our operations in more detail.

Thank you, Dale, and good morning, everyone. Kilham delivered solid earnings growth in 2023, delivered by its dedicated team of experienced real estate professionals. Population growth continues to outpace multifamily housing supply, supporting record occupancy and earnings. As we await official figures from Statistics Canada to be released, preliminary estimates for year-end 2023 indicate that Halifax's population eclipsed a record high of 500,000 people, an increase of 6%, or 30,000 people year over year. This increase follows 2022's population increase of 4.5%, indicating growth in the region is not slowing. This supports Halifax's market vacancy rate of 1% for the third consecutive year, according to CMHC's latest rental market report. As expected, the tight rental market has resulted in Killam's sweet turnover rate declining in 2023 to 19% from 22% the year before. The recent five-year sweet turn rate averaged 27%, whereas the historical rate has been more in the 35% range. In rent-controlled markets, fewer sweet turns are creating wider mark-to-market spreads versus renewal rates. As seen on slide 12, Kiln's current leasing spreads are approximately 30% for our portfolio, with both Halifax and St. John, New Brunswick tied at 25%, second only to Kitchener-Waterloo region, where the highest average mark-to-market spreads are at 33%. Looking ahead, rental rates are expected to continue to grow, but likely at a more moderate pace compared to the last two years. In an environment where market rents are stabilizing, Kiln's opportunity to capture mark-to-market spread on suite turns is expected to remain strong as we capture the embedded growth on these suites. Although 57% of Kiln's net operating income is exposed to rent control, Kiln has proven its ability to grow the portfolio's top line despite lower turnover rates. For example, in 2024, Kiln was forecasting rent growth on lease renewals to pace the 2.8% increase achieved in 2023. we are pleased to report that provinces with permanent or temporary rent controls have approved 2024 guideline increases that better reflect the inflationary pressures all Canadians are experiencing. For example, in Nova Scotia, where the Premier has stated rent control restrictions will be lifted for 2026, the province has given guideline increases of 5% for the next two years. As well, British Columbia's renewal cap increased significantly to 3.5% for this year. PEI's rent cap increased to 3%, and Ontario's renewal cap is 2.5% for 2024. Geographic diversification continues to remain a strategic focus for Killam. We ended 2023 with 37.4% of Killam's net operating income generated outside Atlantic Canada. a 160 basis points improvement from 35.8% in 2022. This 160 basis point gain is due to a number of contributors, including acquisitions, calculated dispositions, and new development completions. Kiln will continue to execute on this strategy, and the 2024 goal is to generate 38% of Kiln's NOI outside Atlantic Canada. Fundamental to our strategy is also the ability to drive incremental value through energy efficiency initiatives. In 2023, we invested $8.8 million in projects such as solar panels, energy-efficient boilers, heat pumps, building automation systems, and electricity and water conservation projects. We are waiting on six newly installed PV solar arrays to be commissioned. Once online, they will increase kilns' electricity produced through renewable energy by 1.5%. enabling Killam to then offset a total of 5.2% of its common area electricity from renewable resources. Reducing Killam's emissions and energy costs is consistent with our capital recycling and disposition approach. As we look to grow and maintain our portfolio, we consider the capital requirements of each property and how these align with our long-term targets to grow NOI and reduce our carbon footprint. Phil will now provide an update on our developments and capital allocation strategy.

Thank you, Robert. During the fourth quarter of 2023, Killam fulfilled its commitment to purchase the second phase of Nolan Hill Development in Calgary with $65 million, adding 234 new units to our portfolio. Killam completed Civic 66 in the governor during 2023, which added 181 units of new product. We also completed the disposition of 14 properties summarized on slides 15 and 16 totaling 1,122 units for a combined sale price of $169 million with net cash proceeds of $94 million. Proceeds were used to reduce Killam's credit facility and to fund her ongoing developments. Developing high-quality properties in our core markets is an important component of Killam's capital allocation strategy, and it allows us to make a contribution to the housing supply for all Canadians. As seen on slide 18, the Carrot, our 139-unit development in Waterloo, is progressing nicely and is expected to be completed in Q2 of 2025. The exciting news on the Carrot is that we have been approved by CMHC to receive a low-interest rate construction and permanent financing loan of $62.4 million through the Apartment Construction Loan Program, previously known as the RCFI program. which is part of the Government of Canada's National Housing Strategy. The program has a number of advantages for Killam. A below CMHC-insured interest rate that is fixed from the start, a waiver of the CMHC application fees, and a commitment by Killam to include 39 affordable units in the development. As shown on slide 19, we will start the development of Eventide, an eight-story, 55-unit building in Halifax this month. The strong population growth, three and a half years of high inflation, and 20-plus months of rising interest rates have created a housing shortage and an affordability crisis. During the last nine months, the federal government has started to shift their attention to this issue and is working towards a solution to help the development industry create more supply through the Housing Accelerator Fund. The Housing Accelerator Fund is a program administered by CMHC That provides $4 billion in funding directly to municipalities to eliminate municipal barriers, such as the lengthy approval processes. The program is aimed to accelerate the supply of housing throughout Canada. Killam owns many properties that will or are going to be impacted by the forthcoming municipal changes. For example, the following municipalities in which Killam operates have already received funding approval to make changes to the land use bylaw. the City of Calgary, London, Kitchener, Waterloo, Mississauga, Fredericton, Moncton, and Halifax. Benefits to Kiln could include greater density or infilled opportunities, more development rights for transit-oriented sites, incentives for wood construction, build form requirements that are less expensive to build, and others. We are still evaluating potential developments for sites across the portfolio as additional action plans are approved, funded, and activated. As an example, in October of 2023, Halifax became one of the first cities to receive approval of its action plan. By early January, the municipality had initiated many significant changes to their zoning bylaws. Those zoning changes are expected to be approved as early as April of 2024, with more to come over the next two years. Halifax is providing immediate changes to zoning along transit corridors. This will impact zoning on several Killam's properties, and in particular, two of our larger sites were identified for positive changes, Harlington Crescent and Victoria Gardens. The Harlington Crescent property is a 16-acre site containing 298 units, and Victoria Gardens is a 10-acre site containing 198 units, with infill opportunities on vacant land at both locations. To conclude, we are very pleased with our 2023 performance and remain committed to investing in high-quality assets and developments to continue to execute our overall strategy and create value for all of our unit holders. Finally, I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication. Thank you. And I will now open up the call for questions.

Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your touch-tone phone. You will then hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. And if you would like to withdraw from the question queue, you will need to press star followed by 2. And if you're using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Please go ahead and press star 1 now if you do have any questions. And first question will be from Jonathan Kelcher. TD Cowan. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. First question just on your targets for the year and specifically the 6% same property NOI. When I look at this stuff, it's tough to see revenues not being up significantly more than 6%. And you're getting a pretty – it sounds like you're getting a pretty good handle on costs. I'm just wondering if you're just being a little bit conservative, given that we're still in Q1, or if there's something in there that I'm missing.

You know, I mean, I think turnover is one we're looking at carefully. So, agreed. We're getting, you know, really pleased with the top-line growth that we're getting on turns. So we would have seen turnover come down in 2023, and that may tick down a little bit more in 2024. But agreed, we're quite bullish on the rent growth. On the expense side, we would have disclosed so far, very, very start of 2024, NatGas is working in the right direction. So that is good to see. Property tax, as we've talked about before, is a bit of the question mark. And we don't get those finalized really until kind of the end of the second quarter. And that's one where, you know, we're seeing headlines even today across the country, property taxes are moving up. So that's one that I'd say we're perhaps being conservative, but yeah. But overall, you know, we say greater than 6%, we feel quite confident to meet that target.

Okay. And then just I guess, secondly, Phil, you ended on talking about some of the opportunities you might get in Halifax on existing properties with the zoning changes. How near-term is that something we can think about?

I think the way we were thinking of these opportunities, we might have been able to sort of – relay a little bit about this information the last couple of quarters, but we were always thinking it was going to take maybe two to three years from a sort of a complete permitting process in terms of getting it rezoned, getting the application in. And what this program has done is essentially there's going to be a lot of changes approved by council in April. So if that's the case, then you quickly go into design. And so there's a potential that we could actually be in the ground on one of these sites this year, which two months ago, three months ago, we were thinking it was two to three years out, but the opportunity was amazing.

Okay. And I guess that's sort of my last question too. You're starting Eventide this year, but your target's two. two projects to start. I was just thinking or going to ask where you think the second one might be. What's the best opportunity?

I think the other one we're working on and we're making great progress is another location in Kitchener. The Whistler property right there in the north end of the city.

Okay. That is helpful. I'll turn it back. Thanks. Thank you.

Next question will be from Kyle Stanley at Desjardins. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Morning, everyone. So just, I guess, sticking with kind of the guidance and kind of along the lines of John's questioning, I think, you know, you made it quite clear on the top line and on the OPEX, you're waiting to see what happens. Do you have a sense of, you know, where property tax increases could go just preliminarily? I guess to your point, that is kind of the one uncertainty or real uncertainty.

Certainly. I mean, we work with advisors annually to get the feel with what they're expecting. So I would say weighted average, we're expecting around 6%.

Okay. Okay, thank you for that.

And we appeal those always. We work hard to manage those where we can, but that's the general weighted average for the portfolio that's based on some third party consultants. Okay.

And then there's been obviously a lot of talk about the rent cap in Nova Scotia being set at five. I'm just wondering, as you have those discussions with your tenants and passing through that increase, you know, has there been pushback? Have you been able to kind of achieve that 5% lift without much issue?

So the response we're hearing from the tenant base actually is very quiet. They understand that inflation has been running north of that number, north of the 5% in the last couple of years. So note their understanding, the 2% wasn't covering it and the five is more in line, but no real pushback, which is great.

Okay, fantastic. That's great to hear. And then just the last one, I was just looking at your mortgage maturities chart on slide nine, and maybe this is just my eyes looking at it, but it seems like the spread between the five and 10 year CMHC financing rates is definitely a bit wider today than maybe it has been over the last several months. If that is in fact the case, would you lean towards the shorter term for your 2024 maturities just to minimize the financing cost impact?

Well, I guess the good news for us is that the first quarter is very light. The second quarter is heavily weighted to the end of the quarter. So other than working on the reapplications or the refinancing applications, and a number of them are with CMHC, we're not going to have to make that decision until basically May and June. And I tell you, like, even the last week, they just keep bouncing around, like they're starting, you know, there's a trend for a week, and then they just turn around and bounce right back up. So we're optimistic that by, you know, into the May to June time period, we'll see, hopefully, that yield curve inverted. And then we'll be looking at the assets and determining whether it's a five or 10 year term.

Okay, no, I think that makes sense. And I think hopefully things are shifting in your favor and the rest of your peers. So I'll turn it back. Thanks very much. Thank you.

Next question will be from Mario Sarek at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Phil, just coming back to the zoning changes in Halifax, can you just maybe elaborate a little bit in terms of what actually has changed and whether you think that could serve as a blueprint for other municipalities across the country to follow suit?

I think it's, as I mentioned, there's a huge number. It's like plus 15 cities have already, I believe, have sort of submitted their application into the federal government looking for money from this housing accelerator fund. And everything is tied to can the city or the municipality show that they're going to reduce the wait time from permitting point of view. and a lot of times it is changing and up-zoning these locations. So for the city here in Halifax, Dartmouth, they have gone around to a number of different sites and said, we now are recommending changes that city council will approve in April that we're going to increase the density through the zoning process. And then they've gone down streets like Quinpool and basically for the first time ever said, we're going to allow up to 40 stories along some of the sort of major bus routes in the city. And then again, the sites that I mentioned, they're great locations in terms of public transit. They've got retail. They've got the ability to sort of absorb this, and they're currently sitting way below in terms of any sort of density of housing inside the city.

But the major change is just very simply the pace of approval.

And the actual zoning, they've gone from basically whatever it is, like an R4 with a height of maybe five stories, allowing now 15 in some cases. It really has, it's a game changer. And I think the program right across the country is doing that. So, I mean, I think it's going to be a very successful program that the federal government has initiated.

Okay, so with that in mind, given that it could be a game changer, how does that change your capital allocation kind of philosophy over the next couple of years? So I saw the minimum kind of disposition in 24 is 50 million. You were one of the earlier REITs to start selling assets a couple of years ago. So how do you think about that over the next couple of years?

Well, I think that it's going to accelerate. I mean, it's going to take – we can't sort of snap our fingers and say we're going to get into the ground in four or five projects. So I think we'll be very fortunate if we can start, as I mentioned earlier, two this year. But it's the length of time that's going to get shortened to be able to have a number of these projects ready to go. And I think it's a little bit too early for us to be able to say, like, this will ramp up and we'll be doing X amount of units in total number of developments in the next sort of 18 to 24 months. But it's all about the planning process that this program is allowing us to accelerate our timelines and have it ready to go.

And it's very early, but have you, has there been any evidence of changes in residential land values as a result?

It's too early because, again, I don't see that. I haven't seen it yet.

But switching gears, Robert, you made a comment on market rent stabilizing. Just wanted to clarify whether stabilizing means that they're no longer moving up or the pace of the increase that we've seen over the past couple of years is moderating.

It's a comment more on pace, Mario. So we're seeing that it's slowing down a bit, but not everywhere. So we're seeing in some of the markets that I've seen Larger increases initially, and it seems to be tapering off a little bit. But when I say that, it's not like it's changing material. It's just showing some abating.

Okay. And what would you classify as your strongest markets for rent growth today versus the ones where this is abating?

So Kitchener-Waterloo has been strong for us for some time. So it continues to be one we look at. New Brunswick had a great quarter and a very good year in 2023. And Halifax has remained steady as well. So those three are standouts for us. A little bit in Newfoundland, which is nice to see.

Okay. And just on the new and renewal spreads on slide seven, obviously there's a nice trend there, the mark-to-market on slide 12. I appreciate the disclosure. That looks impressive. Within your 6% plus answer, I would look for 24%. I think, Dale, you mentioned you expect turnover to come down a little bit. Can you quantify what's embedded within your guidance and the types of newly spreads you're reflecting?

We went from 22 to 19 and 23. So, I mean, I think somewhere we wouldn't be surprised to end up around 17%.

Okay, and then in terms of the new lease spreads, you're showing a 30% mark to market. I think that's why 12, you did 20% in Q4. How should we think about those numbers going forward?

Well, you know, it's always about what units turn and how long the unit tenants have been in the unit. So the numbers that we're presenting at 19 and Q4, you know, some of those units were only occupied for a year some of them for longer. So I think that we have quite a nice trend that we've shown over the last probably eight to 12 quarters, and we're not seeing anything to indicate that that is reversing. So I think that there's an opportunity to continue to move that up.

Perfect. Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

Next question will be from Jimmy Shan at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Just first, just to follow up on the zoning changes that you talked about with more density, how does that improve your development yield?

Well, I mean, the simplest ratio is that it reduces your land cost because you're going to have more units per site. The other part of that is that without the HST, I mean, that improves the yield as well. And then we're looking at, you know, again, right across the board, what markets is there any slack in labor, which would stabilize and maybe even bring down some of the costs. So, for example, what we're seeing there today, out there today, is that Alberta is probably the cheapest market to build in right now. So that's pretty attractive from a number of reasons. And then there's the other part that, again, we're looking at some of these changes would be to go from concrete back into wood. And the wood product is quite a bit cheaper than the mid-rise concrete today. So all these things, all we're trying to do is look at it, figure out, you know, again, adding the features that we typically would put in a building and bringing the cost, stabilize the cost or reducing it in the next few developments.

So when I look at the event-type project that you have on your slide there, it's a smaller 55-unit building, like at four and a half to five. Presumably, like you mentioned, Queen Pool, presumably the yield on that would be higher if you can build a 40-story-type building.

Yes, but again, if you're going to do that, then it's the length. Like we were, well, being able to start this month, it means there's about two and a half years of planning. So if you sat there and said, okay, I got a little piece of land, I can put 40 stories on it someday, you're back into a two to three year design, you know, again, getting the permits. It's just, you know, the city is allowing increased density and zoning. You still have to go through the whole process, which is showing them your plans and everything else being approved. So the length of time to switch gears, if you're comparing it with an asset, or an opportunity for starting today, I mean, you're just back to square one. So it's easier to just go on to the next project, whether it's vacant land and start looking at it from today's point of view.

Okay, and then my second question is, how do you think the cap on foreign students, how do you think that impacts any of your assets or any of your markets at all?

That's an interesting question. So I think right now where we are across all our markets, the cap is coming, but the buildings are full. There is demand in every single market, whether it's geared to or we rent to a student versus a non-student, that we will really not see the impact here from that reduction is what I believe.

Okay. Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touchstone phone. Your next question will be for Matt Kornack at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. Just wanted to go back to the comments around market rents, kind of the growth leveling off. I mean... I think January we saw 125,000 increase in the working population in Canada and housing starts were just out and down 25,000 in the month of January. Do you think that there's the potential for kind of a lull and then re-acceleration or is the limiter ultimately affordability on these units?

We're not anticipating a lull. That's not what we're seeing in the market. What we're seeing in the market is just Yeah, it's not significant. I think that maybe it's being overblown a little bit once it's been written. We do have just a unit will be on for, instead of automatically leased, it'll take a week or two. So we're just monitoring it closely, and there's some hesitation, but it's certainly nothing significant.

No, that makes sense in the context of population growth. I think you've got a long tailwind. Just flipping or switching gears, on the development side, just from a modeling standpoint, I'm looking at, I guess, slide 15. Is it 15? Yes, with the different lease-ups. First off, for Nolan Hill, I think it's added into the Calgary unit count, but I don't think the vacancy was adjusted. Like, just Should we be assuming that vacancy in Calgary is lower and then lease that up over Q1, or all of these kind of will be stabilized second half of the year?

Yes. And just because we use that for our vacancy, it's for the period, for the quarter.

So I think it's the timing of when, but that's why we wouldn't have seen that impact in the vacancy because it was really only there for the last two weeks, likely for two. So I think that that's why you wouldn't have seen it in the vacancy because It was such small pieces. We've never showed vacancy on a lease up of a new building. Oh, but we show it in our total already versus the same property. But I think it's the second half is when we see those.

And Civic 66 and the governor in those numbers would already be kind of in your total. I think you disclosed for Kitchener that Civic is the governor's small. But is there any incremental NOI coming from the latitude decay or LUMA that wouldn't have been in Q4 or those were fully stabilized in Q4.

No, they would have been fully stabilized in Q4. Yeah.

Okay. Thanks, Ed. Thank you.

Thank you. And at this time, we have no other questions registered. Please proceed.

This concludes today's Q4 2023 analyst call. Thank you very much for listening and participating in the call today. And we look forward to updating you on our first quarter call, May the 8th. Thank you.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.