Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Killam Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you required immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded. on Thursday, February 13th, 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Philip Fraser, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining Kiln Department Brief's Q4 2024 year-end financial results conference call. I am here today with Robert Richardson, Executive Vice President Dale Noseworthy, Chief Financial Officer, and Erin Cleveland, Senior Vice President of Finance. Slides to accompany today's call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website under Events and Presentations. I will now ask Erin to read our cautionary statement.

Thank you, Philo. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements with respect to Hillam Apartment REITs and its operations, strategies, financial performance conditions, or otherwise. The actual results and performance of Killam discussed here today could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Such statements involve numerous inherent risks and uncertainties, and although Killam management believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that future results, levels of activity, performance, or achievements will occur as anticipated For further information about the inherent risks and uncertainties in respect to forward-looking statements, please refer to Killam's most recent annual information form and other securities regulatory filings found online on CETA. All forward-looking statements made today speak only as of the date which this presentation refers, and Killam does not intend to update or revise any such statements unless otherwise required by applicable securities law.

Thank you, Erin. We are very pleased with our strong financial and operating results for the fourth quarter, in the year ending December 31st, 2024. We achieved 8.4% same property NOI growth across the portfolio, which included 8.5% same property NOI growth in our apartment portfolio, 7.5% same property NOI growth in our manufactured owned community portfolio, and 6.3% same property NOI growth for our commercial properties. Killam earned FFO of $1.18 per unit, a 2.6% increase from $1.15 per unit in 2023, and throughout the year made very good progress on our strategic targets as shown on slide four. We successfully completed our plan of arrangement, which simplified our organizational structure and reduced future potential corporate taxation. Finally, we completed 10 property dispositions for gross proceeds of $59.2 million. We are optimistic about the opportunities ahead and remain focused on growing our portfolio through developments and acquisitions, growing our cash flow, and increasing the underlying value of our assets. I will now hand it over to Dale.

Thank you, Phil. Key highlights of Kiln's year and financial performance is presented on slide five. Top line revenue increased 4.7% for the total portfolio and 6.0% for our same property portfolio. As Phil mentioned in his opening remarks, we're pleased to have completed our strategic corporate restructuring transaction in Q4. As a result of this plan of arrangement, the taxable entity that existed within our corporate structure has now been removed. This resulted in a deferred tax recovery of $279 million in the quarter, which flowed through net income. This is a non-cash, non-recurring accounting entry to remove the deferred tax liability from our balance sheet. This deferred tax entry and all plan of arrangements transaction costs have been normalized for FFO purposes. We ended the year with FFO of $1.18 per unit, a 2.6% increase from 2023, as seen on slide six. With the Governor, Civic 66, and Nolan Hill 2 all fully leased, We expect to see greater FFO gains in the coming year as these three developments will contribute meaningfully to our earnings. Top line growth was key to our strong results. Our same property apartment portfolio achieved a weighted average 7.0% rental rate increase for the year. This was partially offset by a 40 basis point uptick in vacancy. We achieved 98.0% same property apartment occupancy during the year, compared to 98.4% in 2023. Slide 7 highlights the rental rate increases achieved by quarter over the last nine quarters. In Q4, renewal increases remained healthy at 4.4%, and we achieved 19.5% in rent growth for new tenants who moved in during the quarter. Together, the weighted average rental rate increase was 7.9% in Q4. We estimate the total mark-to-market opportunity for our portfolio to be approximately 15%. This spread has decreased over the past six months as market rents have stabilized and where we have observed a softening of market rent for certain units. Market rent trends vary between regions and rental rates. I'm pleased to report that leasing activity remains robust and Kilham anticipates continued top-line growth on unit terms in the coming years. Robert will expand on this opportunity shortly. Slide 8 shows our same property operating expenses, which increased modestly by 1.7% in 2024. Our most significant cost pressure, property taxes, increased by 5.9%. In 2024, operating expenses were offset by a 5% reduction in utility and fuel expenses. Looking forward to 2025, we expect expenses to increase by 5% to 7%. As with last year, property taxes are expected to be a significant cost pressure. Also, we won't have the benefit of lower natural gas costs. With a colder winter so far and higher natural gas commodity pricing in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, utility and fuel expenses will be higher in 2025. Overall, same property NOI was up 8.4% in 2024, our high in annual NOI growth. We also achieved 150 basis point improvement in our operating margin. We expect same property NOI growth of between 4% and 7% in the year ahead. We will continue to review and adjust our forecast as operating results are announced each quarter. Slide nine presents the average apartment mortgage rate by year compared to the prevailing CMHC insured mortgage rates. We anticipate higher interest rates on refinancing in 2025 due to the current rate on our apartment mortgages maturing this year of 2.14%. However, we do not expect an increase in year-over-year interest expense of the same magnitude as experienced this past year. Looking ahead to 2026, we foresee reduced pressure on interest rates. By 2027 and beyond, based on current rates and forecasts, refinancings may occur at lower interest rates. We're pleased with the improvement in our debt levels, with debt as a percentage of total assets down to 40.4%, the lowest debt-to-total assets ratio in our operating history. In 2025, we aim to keep our debt at similar levels. Slide 10 also highlights our debt to normalized EBITDA, another key leverage metric, which was further improved 9.69 times in 2024, positioning us competitively among our Canadian peers. We're well positioned both from a balance sheet perspective and from an earnings growth perspective as we start 2025. Robert will now discuss our outlook on rent growth amid current market conditions.

Thank you, Dale, and good morning, everyone. Kilman's leasing activity for the month of January 2025, a month with 244 unit turns, delivered strong rental growth of 16% on unit turns, supporting Dale's earlier comment that Kilman's apartment portfolio rents have room to move, likely in the 15% range. This market-to-market opportunity is shown by region on slide 11. Halifax and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge remain two of Killam's strongest markets, with mark-to-market spreads of 20% to 25%. Slide 12 shows the results of Killam's analysis of the length of tenure for vacating residents over the last six years. It highlights the fact that over 50% of vacating residents had a tenure of one year or less. Interestingly, the one year or less cohort in 2019 represented 68% of all vacating units, and the same percentage for the one year or less cohort dropped to 50% by 2024. This makes sense, as renewing in place is more attractive given the increase in market rents since 2020, driven by a combination of more provinces imposing rental caps, as well as some provinces setting rental caps that are grossly below inflation recovery rates for property operating costs, especially realty taxes. What we also know is that each year, approximately 50% of the vacating units come from the remaining cohorts, those with 10 years of two years to over six years, and the rents are likely below market. Kilham expects to capture the mark-to-market spreads from these tenants, although it may not be realized all at once, as this is dependent on unit type, unit location, and the tenure of the vacating tenant. Kilham expects to achieve same property revenue growth from these unit turns in the coming years, and for 2025, we expect 5% to 6% organic top-line revenue growth. Kilham swiftly adapts to market changes based on leasing activity. We remain vigilant in monitoring market rents, multi-family supply levels, and population growth in our markets. Slide 13 illustrates the percentage of apartment completions in Kiln's major markets for the last two years relative to their total rental universe, including condominiums offered for rent as reported by CMHC. In 2024, new completions remain mostly in line with their historical norms across Canada, except for Calgary and Moncton. Not surprisingly, Calgary and Moncton ranked number one and number two as the fastest growing cities per capita in Canada for 2024, so little concern on increased supply in those markets. Given reasonable population growth, we expect demand for our properties to remain steady. As shown on the same slide, Kilms' product offering remains affordable and is not overly exposed to any single price point. With new supply in our markets coming online at rental rates well above Kilms' current average rent of $1,493 per month, Kilms' portfolio is well positioned for continued rental growth. That said, in select markets, we are seeing increased use of rental incentives, most notable with new construction lease-up. This is the case in Calgary, where Kiln's Norman Hill development matched competitors' incentives in that marketplace. Once initial lease-up is completed, these incentives tend to fall away. Similarly, Civic 66 and Kitchener used incentives to finalize its lease-up. Kiln will continue to use rental incentives as required to address market forces. Killam will continue to execute on its proven strategy that focuses on providing safe, well-maintained, quality housing to be the housing provider of choice for our tenants. Killam's 2024 tenant survey, administered by a third-party provider, reports an overall tenant satisfaction score of 84%, above the industry average of 80%, and 87% would recommend Killam to friends and family. As well, 90% of our tenants report that they are pleased with their unit. Kiln reviews these results annually and uses the information to adjust its approach as needed based on the feedback received from the survey. Kiln monitors its portfolio continually to ensure its buildings are performing to their full potential, so our tenants are proud to call our properties their home. We prioritize value-enhancing capital investments, such as upgrading units and modernizing common areas to improve the tenant's experience. For example, in 2024, Kilham upgraded a previously underutilized podium roof at its Spring Garden Terrace property in Halifax. Slide 14 showcases the before and after photos of the rooftop terrace, which is now available for tenants to enjoy. These projects enable Kilham's portfolio to remain relevant and deliver quality housing for many years to come, keeping Kilham competitive in its markets. I will now return you to Philip, so we may address Kilham's capital recycling and development strategies.

Thank you, Robert. In 2024, we completed 59.2 million in property dispositions. During the fourth quarter, Kilham completed the disposition of three properties in Halifax, totaling 110 units for $16.6 million, with net proceeds of $9.7 million, and sold two parcels of land in PEI for a total of $3 million. For the year, we completed the disposition of 10 properties summarized on slide 15, totaling 338 units and 3 parcels of land for a combined sale price of $59.2 million, with net cash proceeds of $34.2 million. Proceeds were used to strengthen our balance sheet and to fund ongoing developments. The sale of these properties aligns with Killam's strategy to optimize value from its portfolio and to increase geographical diversification outside Atlantic Canada. 75% of the units sold were located in Atlantic Canada. Kilham invested $6.8 million in energy initiatives during 2024, including $2.4 million in Q4. At the end of 2024, our solar power production capacity was 2.7 megawatts per year, producing approximately 6.4% of our operationally controlled electricity. Three of these new installations went live in the last two weeks. We have 12 new installs of solar panels planned for 2025, five in New Brunswick, five in Ontario, and two in Halifax. These investments represent a total potential production capacity of 1.728 megawatts per year, or an additional 4% of our operationally controlled electricity. Developing high-quality properties in our core markets is important to Kiln's capital allocation strategy. The Carrick, as shown in slide 17, is expected to be completed by May 31st of this year, with the first tenants moving in in June. Construction continues at Eventide, our 55-unit building off Spring Garden Road in Halifax, and is expected to be completed by Q3 2026. We are ready to start construction in Calgary on our 296-unit Nolan Hill Phase III development, where we have a 10% ownership interest. Site work has started on the 128-unit Whistler development in Waterloo, where all site and building permits have been received. If we look at the overall development budget from a year ago, subtract soft cost, contingency, and land costs, the hard cost budget of $45.2 million is now estimated to be $42.155 million, down 7%, with 64% of the fixed price contracts signed and the remaining 36% out to be signed. This new price plus no HST means the cost compared to a year ago are down $7.5 million. In Halifax, we are working on two as-of-right developments, a 95-unit building at Victoria Gardens in Dartmouth, and a 150-unit building at our Arlington Crescent community. All of the above developments are all in our top three markets where we want to continue to grow our portfolio. Our disposition target for 2025 is between $100 and $150 million in sales. These dispositions are in the early stages, and we will have more details by the time we release our Q1 results in May. The capital will be used to pay down our line of credit, the NCIB, and for acquisitions in our key markets. On the acquisition front, we are increasing our level of interest and activity by tracking and touring a number of properties currently for sale in Western Canada and Ontario. Finally, we hope to start one or two developments per year and participate in the existing ACLP program from CMHC that reduces the overall development risk by providing below-market fixed interest rate financing and a component of affordable housing in each development. To conclude, we are very pleased with our 2024 performance and remain committed to investing in high-quality assets and developments to continue to execute on our overall strategy and create value for all of our unit holders. I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication. Thank you. And I will now open up the call for questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you wish to, should you have a question, please press star followed by number one on your touchtone phone, and you will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by number two. And if you are using a speakerphone, Please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from Jonathan Kelcher from TD Common.

Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning. Good morning. First question, just on the marked market, I guess the slowdown is a combo of a little bit lower market rents and obviously you guys capturing rent. How do you think market rents evolve over the next year or so?

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see as we come off, you know, what is typically pretty slow season in terms of January and February. And what we're already seeing is You know, it's a different story in different markets. And as we talk about a different rent level. So I can tell you even now, Peninsula Halifax, we're getting a lot of interest. And that's, you know, we have the potential market rent as the busy leasing season comes up. It might come back up. Newfoundland is looking really strong. We're seeing acceleration there. There's some other markets where, you know, there's more supply and it's at the higher end. We feel, you know, those market rounds, we're looking at what we're actually leasing things at and feeling pretty good about those. So, I mean, they may come down a little, but I generally feel as we hit the spring leasing season, I expect they'll be generally stable, would be my expectation.

Okay, that's fair enough. And then you talked a little bit about incentives and said you guys were using them basically just to help on lease ups. Are you starting to see more use of incentives outside of leasing up properties? And if so, where?

Yeah, we are. I mean, certainly in Western Canada, we would be seeing that as those do tend to turn on and off depending on the strength of the market there. So those are definitely on. And we're always keeping our eye on what's happening around us in terms of remaining competitive. I'd say in Ontario, we're seeing those more than we have historically in the past. Again, it's unit by unit or building by building, I guess. When we're competing against, you know, as there's new supply and you're at the higher end, I think those buildings that are leasing up are offering incentives more than the older, more affordable properties in general. sprinkling here and there outside of those provinces. I'd say BC a little bit too. We would have those in Atlantic, a few here and there, but not in any meaningful way.

It really is building specific. It's surprising that you could have a number of buildings in one community and one would be a property that requires more incentive, but the others are fine. So I do find that one of the more interesting things as we look through our portfolio, how isolated it these incentives can be.

Okay, that's helpful. And then one more, just Phil, you talked about starting to kick tires on acquisitions, Western Canada, Ontario. What types of properties are you looking at? Is it more new build or more value add?

Or is it a mix? Hi, Jonathan. It's not the value add. It's the newer part of the market. It's the merchant builders. I mean, there's good supply and opportunities in Alberta, Lower Maine, mainland B.C., the island there. And surprisingly, a few properties and few buildings throughout southern Ontario.

Okay, thanks. I'll turn it back. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Brad. Sturges from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Just following up on John's question there, just on the acquisition front, would you characterize the acquisition program at the moment as still being more opportunistic, or do you have more of a soft target in terms of dollar amounts you're looking to spend this year on acquisitions?

Oh, it's really starting to get back and looking at opportunities as opposed to any sort of a target for sure.

Yeah. And you highlighted Western Canada and Ontario. Is there anything you're looking at opportunity-wise in Atlantic Canada?

I think I said the last call that basically Moncton is on our sort of radar for sure. There's some nice new product being built in that marketplace. And really the other one that we're kind of thinking, what we know is it's a strong market and we got a good position there is St. John's Newfoundland. I mean, I think looking at if their deal gets finalized with Quebec Hydro, it means a lot to the province and to the town. And also just the sort of shift in attitude towards oil and gas that's been around for the last couple of months. that would be very positive for the St. John's market over there.

Okay. Last question just in terms of capital allocation as well. How would you think about buying back stock to the NCIB? Like where would that rank in terms of priority and capital allocation today?

It really is a function of our disposition program. And as I've said before, or as noted previously, we are looking for $100 to $150 million. And as we execute on that throughout the year, then basically, you know, it becomes then the focus on what are we going to do with the money. And therefore, obviously, the NCIB is up there, right there with any kind of an opportunity, an acquisition opportunity.

Okay. That makes sense. I'll turn it back. Thank you. Thanks.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kyle Stanley from the HR Den. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Morning, everyone. You mentioned 16% turnover spreads in January. And, you know, I know you've given kind of top line guidance of 5% to 6% growth. Just wondering, is that 16% kind of a good estimate of where turnover spreads trend? Or, you know, is there any seasonal softness given that, you know, it's a bit slower on the leasing front in January? you know, safe to assume, I guess, the turnover spread the line with your view of where the mark-to-market opportunity is today?

I think that it's pretty representative. And, you know, we've got a mix of regular turns and repositionings in that 16. So that's why it trips up a little bit higher than the 15. When we talk about 15 mark-to-market, that's actually without repositioning opportunities. So I think that that's a good indicator. It all depends which units turn.

it was 244 units turned in January. So it was, I think, a fairly significant pool, which gives us an indication the market is relatively strong in terms of moving those rents, capturing that mark to market.

Okay, no, that's helpful. And then I think your comment there about the 244 units that turned is interesting. And you mentioned, I think, in your disclosure, you know, an expectation of turnover stabilizing maybe in the 18% range. Would you say that That's kind of your view on maybe trough turnover in the portfolio and actually with rents, market rents maybe softening a bit. Is there a view that turnover trends a bit higher?

You know, it's so different by markets when you talk trough. Like, you know, I think that we may see turnover start to tick up as you have more units that are not that far off the market rent. But we don't expect any significant change trending upward. But I think this, I think we have probably, we're probably moving up, more chance of moving up than down, I would say.

But our disclosure shows market by market, you know, the high being out in the west, which is already back up into the 30s. And then it's just sort of like slides down into the Ontario and even Halifax is still relatively low.

But they're maintaining their respective norms. Yeah. Right? So. Okay, no, that's very helpful.

Just last one, just on your OPEX guidance, would you say the primary driver of maybe uncertainty on where OPEX ends up is definitely regarding property tax? And would you have maybe a better understanding where that shakes out come April? I guess just trying to figure out how conservative maybe that 5% to 7% range ends up being.

Yeah, it's definitely the property tax is one of them. By April, I'd say it's probably more in the May timeframe that we have a better line of sight into exactly what that will look like. It all kind of depends on the mill rates in the various regions. And then the other piece is around the gas and that consumption kind of between February and March. So we'll have a better sense of that in April.

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. I'll turn it back.

Thank you. And your next question, we have Jimmy Chan from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks for the morning, guys. So in terms of your 2025 expectation of revenue growth, what sort of occupancy portfolio wide are you assuming?

Generally, it's pretty flat compared to occupancy levels. Yeah, pretty flat overall. compared to where we would have been in 24 is what we would be expecting. And again, it's, you know, we're watching this closely and when we, with market rents coming down, it is amazing when you've got it priced right, the demand that's there. So we've seen, as Rob talked about, a lot of leasing activity. So we do expect occupancy levels overall to be quite high.

Okay. We did see you know, kind of full markets, Calgary, Ottawa, London, Victoria, you know, on a year-over-year basis, the toxicity did come down a decent amount. I think you already talked about Calgary, but I'm wondering kind of what sort of the story there is in terms of Ottawa, London, and Victoria.

Sorry, it's a bit hard to hear you. Are you asking about top lines in those markets?

Yeah, the occupancy in Ottawa, London and Victoria seem to have come out a decent amount in the quarter.

Yeah, you know, I think that we're again, we're seeing activity in all of those markets as we are adjusting to the current market. So I think that we have the opportunity to those.

Well, and also they're like, if you look, if you're asking like the Victoria, the Vancouver, it's pretty small sample size. So, I mean, you know, five, 10, tenants for a couple months, it drops it down more than what we saw as a decline for the whole year on the portfolio, which was 40 basis points.

Yeah. Fair enough. Okay. And then just last one, just a clarification on the quarter. So you marked a market portfolio-wide, 15%. Your turn spread still 19.5%. Usually we see the reverse, but is that just a function of the mix of units that turn in the quarter?

It's also because we have, when we look at mark-to-market, as I mentioned, that does not include our repositioning. So when we look at that 19.6%, that does include a mix of regular turns and repositioned, and it's somewhere around, call it 13% on regular and could be 40 to 50 on reposition. So that weighted average moves it up. So that's why it's higher. So when we look at our regular turns, it is a little bit below the mark-to-market, which makes sense based on some of the units that are turning would have turned last year. Makes sense. Thanks.

Thank you. And your next question comes from Mike Markitis from BMO Capital Market. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. Forgive me if this info is in the MD&A. I haven't had a chance to look at it in fine detail yet. But just with following on Jimmy's line of questioning with the mark-to-market versus the captured spread on turn, did your repositioning program ramp materially throughout last year?

And I guess it's part of one of the... No, it actually came down a little bit. I mean, it's still... going to be a part of our program on an annual basis. And it really, you know, every we're looking opportunity by opportunity and making sure that if we're investing that capital, those market rents, we can still get. And what we're seeing is some properties where we've done it in the past, it still makes sense. Some, if you've got a new, more new supply close by, you might not be able to capture what you could have a couple of years ago with those higher market rents. So it's come down and it's moderating a bit. It'll continue, but down from the peak.

Okay. And again, it's probably in there, but I haven't seen. So no material change in terms of your non-development-related capex expected in 2025?

It's in line, yeah.

Yeah, it's very consistent.

Okay, thanks. Just on the incentives, realize it's somewhat isolated and building-specific, but maybe if you could just give us a little bit of color with respect to the quantum or type of incentive that you're seeing at the select properties you highlighted?

You know, typically, one month rent-free is a fairly strong inducement in most markets. So we would maybe alter that a little bit, and then sometimes we decrease it. But that's a pretty good representation.

And I think also getting a bit creative too and potentially using parking and other things than just the rent for incentives as well.

Okay, thanks. And then last one for me is just appreciate all the detail. Your slide deck is great, by the way. Really appreciate it. But I think on slide 13, you had the historical completions, looking at condo inventory as well for all of your markets and The comparison was 24 versus 23 in the 10-year average. And I'm just curious if you've looked at under construction and anticipated deliveries in the next year or two, and if you're expecting any meaningful changes other upwards or downwards versus what's shown on slide 13 for any markets in particular.

Yeah, I mean, we've got a slide. but I've actually got in front of me, I don't know if we put it out or it's been, but essentially it's CMHC data. And it's the construction as a percentage of the rental universe, including condo, across all our major markets. And when you look at it, Halifax, Moncton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Toronto and Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, they're all in about a 13 to basically the top two ones are maybe Toronto and Calgary at around 16%. So essentially what it's saying is that what is coming, what has started, it's probably the same percentage rate across the country.

Just to clarify that, we're comparing it with condos that are identified for rent. Right.

Not all condos. It's just rental plus the condos. So when you look at that, you go and say, well, okay, so the whole country is basically about the same in terms of what's coming on supply. And I mean, the other interesting point, It was in today's paper was the, and I'll give credit to Dajardin there for putting it out. It's about the population and the immigration. And essentially they're saying, other than international students, we still have quite a bit of immigration in Canada, and especially the last four months. So, you know, you look at that, the country is roughly almost equal in terms of new supply. It's basically, it's quite positive. Okay. Got it. And just to clarify.

We do have that information. Mike, we do have that information on our IR slide deck that would be on the website where we do look at key markets. I think we can follow up.

Yeah, that's great. I will circle back and have a look at that. Thanks so much.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Matt Cornack from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Hey guys, maybe just circling back to your slide 12 in the commentary around January, can you give us a sense, are you starting to see a reversion more towards, maybe not immediately, but towards the 2019 sort of higher composition of zero to one year leases turning at this point? Or is it still kind of 50-50 old and recent leases that are turning?

We didn't... Yeah, Matt, we didn't chart that, so I can't speak to it definitively.

Would you say the expectation is that you'll start to see that composition change a bit?

I wouldn't be surprised to see it start to move close, like move in that direction in terms of more than, so you're asking more than 50% of turns be kind of in that one-year period. Yeah. I mean, we, I don't think, I think it may go up a little bit, but right now we're not seeing anything to indicate that, but.

Great interest. Yeah. Your markets, the market to market is still such that maybe it, it makes sense to remain in place. Um, and then I guess just, um, On the repositioning side, you mentioned that it's come down, but as the dynamics change, would you see that as kind of coming back as a potential growth mechanism within apartments more broadly? How should we think about that opportunity set? Because I know there was a period of time where rent growth was fairly low on an organic basis, but you guys were able to access rent growth through repositioning. So just interested in your thought on deploying capital into those renovations and at which point it makes sense to do more of it.

Well, I think we will continue to look at it and maybe what we will end up doing is right-sizing those renovations depending on what the top end of the rent we can get. You know, the way we're looking at it now is saying what's the incremental capital we have to spend to do a repositioning over what the regular market rent would be without doing that work and making sure the return makes sense for the spread from the what we expect to be able to achieve versus just turning it for a regular turn. So we're already having those conversations and finding ways to still do the upgrades, move it higher and spend less. And it It is market by market, so we will continue to look at it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back a little bit, but it's still going to be an important part of our program.

With our average rent being just shy of $1,500 a month, there's ample opportunity to spend some money, invest some money. When you take a look at other new bills that are going to have to charge north of $2,000 a month, So that gives us the opportunity to continue to invest in our existing portfolio until that gap and earn that market market.

That makes sense. Just lastly, on margins, particularly Q1, do you expect it to look obvious that the portfolio has changed a bit, but to look more like Q1 of 2023? Obviously, last year, we had A very mild winter, and we're sitting with a foot of snow on the ground right here in Toronto. I know snow removal, I think, is contractual, but can you give us a sense of how much you expect the expense to increase in Q1 for you guys?

Well, certainly Q1, we're going to feel it the most because of the cold weather. Aaron, do you want to comment?

I mean, I think it's generally in line with the guidance that we've provided for expenses in the NDNA. And as we said, kind of in that 5% to 7% range, we'll see that increase in utilities in Q1 with the colder weather, but would kind of expect the rest to be in line. And when you think margin, I would say it would be generally in line with what we saw kind of in 2024. Okay.

And broadly speaking, I guess, the portfolio is changing, maybe not rapidly, but... you're going to more hydrox releases and with your newer product, presumably you're less exposed to utilities to some extent.

Yeah, our newer builds, absolutely. They're all sub-metered.

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Thank you. And the next question comes from Simon Shinivas for Carmex Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Aparita. Good morning, everybody. Good morning. We're looking at slide 11, the mark-to-market opportunity by region, and mainly focusing on Halifax, Kishinevato, GTA, some of the biggest opportunities in the portfolio there. How would you guys characterize the cadence year-over-year in terms of these spreads maybe last year? Sorry, the cadence, are you saying for Halifax specifically? Both Halifax and Kitchener-Waterloo. I'm just trying to understand how those spreads have moved when you look at last year, especially when these markets have seen inventory come in.

I mean, I think that they've moved generally in line. They have come down, but again, we've achieved some really strong rents. So when you look at that spread, that is part of it. So I think in both those, when you've got a building that's competing against some new supply, you know, those market rents have come down a bit. There's some units that are still moving up. So I think it's generally in line in those markets as the other markets. I mean, I'm thinking back a couple of quarters, I believe we were above 30 just two quarters ago or one for Halifax. We were probably at 31% maybe last quarter. So it has come down, but I'd say We've had this info for a couple of months, so I guess you can go back and look and we can kind of compare which markets have moved the most to help understand that. But I'd say both those markets are holding up very well. And I think a lot has to do with you look at the range of assets that we have in each of those markets. So Kitchener-Waterloo, we have some wonderful new buildings and we have some older buildings that more affordable rents that still have a very strong mark to market. And same in Halifax.

I think the market market's an interesting number, but for us, it's what we're capturing. So we're seeing, you know, impressive 15% capture. We think that that's representative of what this portfolio can do.

That makes sense. And maybe just shifting gears on the acquisition front and, you know, some color in terms of the product you're seeing on the market. When you look at these transactions, what seems to be the main motivation of sellers actually going out and selling these assets?

Sorry, could you just repeat that last little bit?

So when you look at the product that's even coming in these acquisitions, in the markets right now for acquisitions, what seems to be the main motivation of sellers actually coming to sell?

Why? Well, again, the motivation of a good part of this whole sort of product that's available for sale is still contained within the merchant builder sort of universe. So, I mean, they're not, they build it to sell it. They're not builders and owners and managers. So that's always been part of the market almost since the beginning of time in every major market across the country. So that's the area that you first start to look at.

Thank you.

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 1. Your next question comes from Dean Wilkinson from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. There's a lot of focus on this market-to-market, 19 going to 15, going to whatever it might be. I'm trying to get a sense of what that number looks like in a historical context. If I go back to 4%, 5% same property NOI growth before we all knew what a pandemic was, how does these spreads look relative to then? Maybe there's a bit of an overreaction to what we're seeing here. Could you just comment on that?

Yeah, I think you're right on it. It's almost trying to figure out how to sort of summarize the end of all these questions. And the way to look at it is pre-COVID, we lived in a world that was the total revenue growth was between 2% and 4%. And that included all the markets we were in that had rent control and you're getting your little 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%. And so obviously the market was the difference. And that was life. You come through 2020 to last year, the COVID years, increase in population, increase in cost. Basically in there, those couple of years, we had below sort of increases due to self-imposed, you know, zero increases for a year or so, or governments doing something. And everything sort of popped. And all of a sudden, we were just trying to catch up to what would have been the trend line. So now you come out. And I guess really the punchline from my point of view is that If you look at all the rent control areas, what is the current allowable increase for the year? And here we are, we sit in Halifax and we have a 5% increase and it follows the like three, two and a half or three, depending on the province. So that's built into what's going to be part of the increase in the revenue. And essentially any way you look at it, whether, like you said, it's a 10% of 15, what we're trying to do is average the ones that are basically not much of an increase because the person's been living there for a year, or somebody tends to sort of move and they've been a tenant for four years, five years, six years, and there's a very good sort of difference in the cost because of it could have been in the rent control or just the fact that they've been living there in a building. So when you combine that, I mean, I look at it, you know, the first month in January, 3,768 units renewed, 3.61. The regular turns or the turns, 220 that Robert mentioned before, 12.28. Repositions, it's another big lift on the number of that. And so you're going to see that throughout the whole next 11 months to 12 months. And at the end of it, we're still getting the benefit of all those increases that came the last three or four months of last year that were bigger rents. So they're all spread out throughout. the portfolio. So it's positive is the only way to say it.

Yeah. I mean, to me, it seems a little more like a mean reversion than a deterioration in leasing fundamentals. Yeah. If we were talking about these numbers back in 2019, it'd be like, yeah, this is great. So I appreciate the colors. Thanks, guys. Hand it back.

Yeah. And it's a mean reversion that's going to take, we believe, two to three years to go back.

That's fair.

Yeah.

Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call over to Philip Brazen, President and CEO. Please continue.

Once again, thank you very much for participating and listening today. And we look forward to continuing this conversation in May and giving you an update on our first quarter results. Thank you.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. Today's conference call has concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.