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spk06: Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the KP Tissue fourth quarter 2023 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. If anyone has difficulty hearing the conference, please press star followed by zero for the operator assistance at any time. Before turning the meeting over to management, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, March the 7th, 2024. I will now hand the call over to Mike Baldessara, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk04: Thank you, operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Mike Baldessara. I'm the Director of Investor Relations at KP Tissue Inc. The purpose of the conference call today is to review the financial results of the fourth quarter of 2023. for Kruger Products, which I'll refer to as Kruger Products going forward. With me this morning is Dino Bianco, the Chief Executive Officer of KP Tissue and Kruger Products, and Mark Holbrook, the Chief Financial Officer of KP Tissue and Kruger Products. The following discussions and responses to questions contain forward-looking statements concerning the company's activities. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. which could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned not to rely on these forward-looking statements. The company does not undertake to update these forward-looking statements, except if required by applicable laws. There's a page at the beginning of the written presentation which contains the usual legal cautions, including as to the forward-looking information, which you should be aware of. I'd like to point out that all figures expressed in today's call are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. The press release reporting our Q4 2023 results were published this morning and will be accessible from our website at kptissueinc.com. Please be aware that our MD&A will be posted on our website and will also be available on CDAR. Finally, I would ask that during the call to refer the presentation we have prepared to accompany these discussions. which is also available on the website. We'd also appreciate that during the Q&A period for you to limit your questions to two. Thank you for your collaboration. Ladies and gentlemen, I'll now turn the call over to Dino Bianco, our CEO. Dino?
spk05: Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. We are pleased with our strong financial results in fiscal 2023. We delivered record revenue and record adjusted EBITDA, driven by many positive factors. Overall, our business benefited from robust volume, positive margin management, and strong operational efficiency across our network. In our consumer segment, we gained market share within the facial tissue and paper towel categories, while improving our share trend on bathroom tissue. We also stepped up to support and supply Scotty's facial tissue to consumers and customers given the exit of Kleenex from the Canadian grocery market. Our away-from-home business continued to deliver sustainable results with another strong adjusted EBITDA quarter and year. In the fourth quarter, our underlying results remained solid despite strategically increasing investments in marketing, and operational maintenance to enable us to enter 2024 in a stronger competitive position. Looking ahead, we plan to manage our margins amid rising pulp costs, continue to invest in our brands, grow our official facial tissue position, and implement the successful startup of our Sherbrooke expansion. Now let's review our quarterly numbers on slide six. Revenue growth of 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 can mainly be attributed to higher sales volume, partially offset by increased promotional spending year over year. Canadian revenues increased 4.8% in the fourth quarter, while the U.S. improved 5.9%. Adjusted EBITDA was up 37.9% year over year to $61.2 million in the fourth quarter, mainly driven by higher sales volume and a lower cost base. Mark will provide you with more details in the financial section. Turning to full-year financial results on slide seven, record revenue of $1.9 billion grew 11.4% year over year on the strength of higher sales volume, the positive effect of selling price increases implemented during 2022, and a favorable foreign exchange impact on U.S. dollar sales. Canadian revenues rose 7.4% in 2023, while the US grew at 17.1%. In terms of profitability, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $238.6 million in 2023 for the same reasons as revenue growth, along with lower pulp prices and reduced freighted expenses. These factors were partially offset by higher other input cost inflation, increased manufacturing overhead, and higher SG&A expenses compared to the prior year. On slide eight, pulp average prices in Canadian dollars increased single digits in the fourth quarter of 2023 from the previous quarter, while year-over-year prices dropped. NBSK and BEK average prices fell 24.6% and 32.1% year-over-year in Q4 2023. Based on industry forecasts, and we've already witnessed this early in 2024, Cult prices are expected to rise over the course of the year. Let's move on to Sherbrooke operations and our expansion at that site, which is on slide nine. Our TAD operations continue to track above expectations. Construction on our new production facility is progressing well as our facial tissue line began production in early February and our paper machine startup is expected in early Q4 2024. Of note, this extra capacity from these assets will help us supply our increased demand across North America. Turning to the facial market update on slide 10, as the Canadian leading supplier of facial tissue, we are fulfilling consumer demand following the grocery exit of the Kleenex brand in Canada by providing more innovation and expanding our distribution. We are delivering Scotty's facial tissues in different formats, sizes, and quality types to meet the diverse needs and requirements of our consumers. We have also expanded our facial distribution with new customers in the U.S. to serve that market. Scotty's made significant gains in the fourth quarter by achieving a 38.9% share of total facial tissue sales in Canada, which is according to Nielsen's 52-week numbers. These figures are even higher for 4-week and 12-week data, which will be reflected in future 52-week numbers. To meet demand for added capacity, the new facial line within our Sherbrooke expansion has been running since early February, and we also recently announced the acquisition of a new line in our Gatineau, Quebec facility, which will increase capacity by 25% there. This new Gatineau line reflects an additional $14.5 million investment that will deliver much-needed facial supply for us to grow in the North American facial market. Aligned with these new assets, we are increasing marketing efforts to further build brand awareness for Scotties across Canada while expanding our facial presence in the United States. Turning to our Memphis operations on slide 11, we are happy with the progress made on our TAD manufacturing operations. Paper production efficiency has stabilized, and we expect performance to continue to improve. In terms of converting, we're riding a longer learning curve there, but investments are being made in maintenance and technical leadership to improve performance. The deployment of digital twin and AI tools has been successful on the new facial line in Memphis, and we are expanding this capability across our TAD converting assets at the site as well. Finally, we are relaunching our operational excellence program at the site while leveraging best practices from both Sherbrooke and Memphis. As a result of these actions, we should see progressive improvement in output throughout the year. Now let's move on to brand support on slide 12. As mentioned earlier, we made incremental marketing investments in the fourth quarter to drive brand share in a highly competitive environment. Multi-brand activities continued with our unapologetically human Love is Messy campaign, and we unveiled the fourth year of a successful Kruger Big Assist program for young hockey players across the country. In terms of Canadian brands, we increased media support on Scotties, Bonterra, and Ultralux during the quarter to drive awareness and purchase. We also maintained strong shopper marketing and activation behind the sports partnerships, such as our entrenched relationship with hockey and NHL. In the United States, strategic shopper investments behind White Cloud continue to drive trial and awareness across the portfolio. Turning to slide 13, the data presented is taken from Nielsen. It shows market share performance over a 52-week period ending December 30 of 2023. The data validates our investments as share is growing in facial tissue and paper towel after a high inflationary period in the prior year. Share gains are up 2.9 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points year-over-year for these respective categories. As for bathroom tissue, we are improving our share trend in what is a highly competitive category. Looking at away from home on slide 14, sales volume in the fourth quarter increased 6% year-over-year and was stable sequentially. AFH has now delivered six consecutive quarters of positive EBITDA including robust profitability in Q4 2023. I believe that the foundations we have put in place in this business is having a positive impact on profitability. Going forward, asset performance and the startup of our new paper machine will provide strong growth opportunities for AFH. However, we keep monitoring the potential impact of an economic slowdown on the AFH market due to its increased exposure to shifting economic conditions. I will now turn the call over to Mark.
spk01: Mark? Thank you, Dino, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 15 for a summary of our financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2023. As Dino mentioned, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $61.2 million on sales of $482.3 million in the quarter, a marked improvement over the same period last year. I will comment on net income, which totaled $16.5 million in the fourth quarter, compared to $16 million in Q4 2022. The increase can be attributed to several factors, with the higher adjusted EBITDA of $16.8 million year-over-year playing a major part in generating growth, along with lower depreciation and amortization expense, a higher foreign exchange gain, and lower interest expense. These were mostly offset by the comparison to a 2022 gain in the change in the amortized cost of the partnership unit's liability. In the quarterly segmented view on slide 16, consumer revenue increased 5.8% year-over-year to $400.9 million in the fourth quarter and 2.7% sequentially from Q3 2023. Consumer segment revenue rose both in Canada and the U.S. year-over-year. In the away from home segment, revenue improved 2.6% year-over-year to $81.4 million in the fourth quarter but declined 2.1% sequentially from a seasonally strong Q3. Consumer adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter totaled 59.8 million compared to 42.7 million in Q4 2022, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.9% versus 11.3% for the same respective period. Sequentially, consumer adjusted EBITDA was down 6.1 million or 9.2%, from Q3 2023. For our AFH business, adjusted EBITDA amounted to $5.7 million in the fourth quarter, the same compared to last year's results, with a margin of 7%. Sequentially, AFH adjusted EBITDA was down $2.7 million from Q3 2023, reflecting the seasonality. On slide 17, we review year-over-year consolidated revenue growth for Q4. which grew 24.2 million or 5.3%. Growth was driven by higher sales volume, partially offset by increased promotional spending. On a geographical basis, revenues in Canada rose 12.5 million or 4.8% year-over-year, while U.S. revenues grew 11.7 million or 5.9%. On slide 18, we provide additional insight into profitability for the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $16.8 million to $61.2 million, representing a margin of 12.7% from $44.4 million in Q4 last year, or a margin of 9.7%. Several factors contributed to generating strong adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, including higher sales volume, lower pulp and other input costs, increased productivity and operations, and lower freight costs. These factors were partially offset by increased promotional spending, along with higher warehousing and SD&A expenses. Now let's turn to slide 19, where we compare Q4 revenue sequentially to Q3 2023. Revenue improved by 8.9 million, or 1.9%, mainly due to higher sales volume in our consumer segment, and an increase in FX on US dollar sales. Geographically, revenue in Canada grew by 7.3 million or 2.7% sequentially, while revenue in the US rose by 1.6 million or 0.8%. On slide 20, adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter decreased sequentially by 11.2 million or 15.4%. On higher pulp costs, increased freight and warehousing expenses, higher plant overhead costs, as well as incremental marketing and SG&A expenses. These factors are partially offset by greater sales volume. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.7% was down 2.6 margin points from 15.3% in Q3. Turning to our balance sheet and financial position on slide 21, Our cash position stood at $135.7 million at the end of the fourth quarter, a decrease of $15.4 million from Q3 2023. The sequential decrease in cash is mainly explained by lower adjusted EBITDA generated in the fourth quarter. Year over year, cash increased by $57.3 million. Total long-term debt at quarter end stood at $1.03 billion down $32.1 million from the end of the previous quarter. Net debt decreased $15.8 million sequentially to $933 million as improved working capital allowed us to pay down debt. As a result, our net debt to last 12 months adjusted EBITDA ratio decreased to 3.9 times in the fourth quarter from 4.3 times in Q3 and 8.9 times in Q4 2022. Leverage improved on the strength of a lower net debt and higher adjusted EBITDA in the last 12 months. We expect our leverage ratio to remain in the four times range in 2024 as we are using debt financing for the Sherbrooke expansion and there is significant capital spending for the final year of the project. At quarter end, total liquidity representing cash and cash equivalents and availability from revolving credit agreements stood at $326.7 million. In addition, $15 million of cash was held for the Sherbrooke expansion. I'll conclude my section by reviewing capital expenditures on slide 22, total capex in Q4 was $79.6 million, including $58.1 million for the Sherbrooke expansion. For fiscal 2023, CapEx stood at $185.4 million, including $148.4 million for the Sherbrooke expansion. The total capital cost of the Sherbrooke expansion remains at $378 million, with a significant portion of that coming in 2024. We have therefore increased our CAPEX forecast for fiscal 2024 to between $200 and $220 million. This range includes between $45 to $55 million for regular and maintenance CAPEX. Thank you for joining us this morning, and I'll now turn the call over to Dino.
spk05: Thank you, Mark. Please turn to slide 24 for my closing comments. We delivered broad top line growth and strong profitability in the fourth quarter and the fiscal year, despite what continues to be an uncertain economic environment. After the impact of COVID and 2022 inflation, we really improved our capabilities and approach, which I believe will make our business more resilient to future volatility. As we look ahead to 2024, We intend to manage our margins amid rising pulp prices. We will continue investing in our brands to drive long-term growth. We will increase capacity to meet strong demand through our Sherbrooke expansion and our new facial lines. Our away-from-home segments should maintain its upward trajectory and continue to deliver against the sustainable profit model. As Mark mentioned, our leverage ratio is expected to remain within its current range based on the final year of spending for the Sherbrooke Expansion Project in 2024. And finally, we will keep investing in our organization and capabilities to drive future growth. Now let's turn our attention to the outlook for the first quarter of 2024. We expect margins to remain consistent and adjusted EBITDA to be in a similar range to Q4 2023. Before I open the line to questions, I'd like to take this opportunity to recognize Mark Holbrook on a successful 26-year career with Kruger Products and many contributions to the grocery industry over a distinguished 38-year career. Mark's steadfast leadership and sound advice has been instrumental to the success of our company, and Mark's guidance, objectivity, and knowledge have been critical for me as I joined the company six years ago. This will be Mark's last official earnings call for Kruger Products as CFO, but we are fortunate to have Mark continue in the organization until the end of 2025. Mark will be a special advisor reporting to me, and he will work on many key strategic projects. Mark will also provide a strong transition to Michael Keyes, our new CFO, effective March 11, 2024. Michael has been with Kruger Products since 2008 and has built his career in various progressive finance leadership roles across our businesses in Canada, U.S., and Mexico. We are confident that Michael will play a pivotal role in driving our financial objectives, fostering continued sustainable growth, and building the finance team's capabilities. I and Kruger Products are fortunate to have two strong leaders in Mark and Michael continue in their new roles. We will now be happy to take your questions.
spk06: Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please dial star 1 on your telephone keypads now to enter the queue. Once your name is announced, you can ask your question. If you find your question is answered before it's your turn to speak, you can dial star 2 to cancel. Our first question comes from the line of Hamir Patel of CIBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk02: Hi. Good morning. Dino, with one of your U.S. competitors undertaking a strategic review of their own tissue business, it looks like we're going to see some industry consolidation play out. Would KP consider expanding its platform via M&A, and how do you think about what comes next after Sherbrooke?
spk05: Yeah, that's a great question, Amir. Good morning. Obviously, this has been a topic for a while. I think I've been asked this on previous – I would support the comment that this industry needs to consolidate some way. I know one of our competitors has been a little more blunt about that. Look, we're a growing company. We grow organically and we've grown through acquisition. It's been part of our DNA in the history and will continue to be part of our DNA going forward. We're always looking for opportunities geographically, capability-wise to grow. And I'm going to just say what I always say, which is we look at everything and we talk about nothing. And clearly, you know, I think you know enough about our organization that if there is a chance that is strategically a good fit and economically a good fit where value creation can happen, we will be there looking at it. And there's nothing different about, you know, tomorrow versus what it was yesterday.
spk02: Fair enough. Thanks, Dino. And I just want to ask about the market share slide. You know, clearly we're seeing momentum in facial. Would you expect that to continue into 24, or did a lot of that Kleenex exit already show up in the fourth quarter?
spk05: Yeah, so... I show you 52-week shares there, right? And I mentioned in my comments, even though we don't talk about it, I don't share it, we see the four-week and the 12-weeks. So four-week in this case would be the month of December, and the 12-week would be the Q4. We do see stronger shares there for us because that's the prime time that Kleenex was exiting. Those will start reflecting in the 52-week as they become a greater part of the 52-week. You know, our approach going forward on this when the news was made public is that we believe we should, and we're seeing that already, that we should be at least fair share gain of any losses that come from Kleenex. We certainly feel our brands are very strong and very committed to the Canadian market with Scotty's. So we have a great brand, and now we've added capacity to make sure that we can fulfill the demand, and not just adding capacity, but also adding capability around innovation and new formats to make sure that we look after the needs of consumers, certainly in Canada, but also we're looking to expand in the United States with our U.S. partners.
spk02: Okay, great. Thank you. And just a final question for Mark. You know, it looks like the CAPEX budget for 2024 was raised slightly. How do we think about the sort of step down in CAPEX in 2025?
spk01: Good morning, Amir. Yeah, we're looking at about 200 to 220 for 2024. That includes a substantial portion for the Sherbrooke expansion. We typically don't give out 2025 at this point in time, but certainly with the completion of the project, we would see a step down from that back to more normalized, and that's still leaving us open for any strategic investment that we might do in 2025 as well. But we'll save that for a later call, and Michael can comment further. Thanks.
spk02: Fair enough. Thanks, and, yeah, Mark, all the best in retirement. That's all I have. Thanks, McNamara. Appreciate that. Thank you.
spk06: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sean Stewart at TD. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk00: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Good morning. Just one question. The bridge to flat quarter-over-quarter EBITDA, I guess I'm just trying to understand the puts and takes there. So you'll have further pulp cost inflation, presumably, reflected in the numbers, is the flat earning simply a function of a lower promotional spend? Is there any other factors that are feeding into that?
spk05: No, I think you hit it on the head. I mean, we set it in the range of, so we don't have that level of position, whether it's going to be flat or slightly better. So we use the term in the range, which will mean that, you know, What we're seeing as it relates to volume, our volume, we believe, will continue to stay very strong. Our operations will continue to stay very strong. Obviously, we're onboarding our new assets, so that will bear out later in the year with the facial lines. The biggest wild card is, as you mentioned, is what's going on with pulp. And we have seen a very dramatic increase in pulp pricing. We've also seen some weakening of the Canadian dollar. So we're cautious there, and that's probably the biggest headwind against what I think are many, many positive things going on in the quarter, and that's why we're being, I think, fairly cautious in the way that we talk about the first quarter, given that volatility.
spk00: Thanks for that detail. One other question, Dino. You touched on the away-from-home business being more exposed to macro headwinds or tailwinds. And I think the suggestion was you're cautious potentially on that front given an uncertain macro outlook. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but are you seeing any signs of emerging weakness in demand into that channel? Any further context you can give us there?
spk05: Yeah, you know, sometimes in that channel, the potential of a recession has just as much impact as an actual recession because everybody starts to pull back a little bit in anticipation of a recession. So I would say there's a lot of debate whether we're going to be in a recession or just an economic slowdown or whatever. And I'm not going to comment on what we're hearing from the Bank of Canada and others that are experts in this area. But I would say we probably saw a little bit of inventory tightening coming out of the fourth quarter. I think some of it may just be normal. I'm not anticipating any. I'm not trying to send any coded messages. I just think it's important that just given where we are and where the economic state is that I make a comment on that. The other part of your question could be if there's economic impact to AFH, there's generally a benefit on the consumer side. If people are staying at home more or not going out for dinner and they're eating at home, we could benefit on the consumer side as it relates to tissue usage. I wouldn't read too much into it other than a statement of potential that could happen.
spk00: Got it. Okay. Thanks for that, Dino, and congrats to both Mark and Michael.
spk06: Thanks. Thank you. Thank you. Just as a reminder, if you do wish to ask a question, please dial star 1 now. Our next question comes from the line of Zach Evershed at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
spk03: Good morning, everyone. This is Nathan calling in for Zach. My first question is regarding your market share. Obviously, your market share took a noticeable jump in facial after the Kleenex exit. Has taking that incremental share put any strain on your capacity on either the production side or the converting side?
spk05: It did coming out of last year, but as I mentioned in my notes, Nathan, we are benefiting from our long-ago announced facial line in the Sherbrooke expansion, which has started up so that it is running, and then we were able to secure an additional asset in late Q4, a brand new asset in our Gatineau facility. So those two assets, in addition to the legacy assets that we have across our network, which are all running quite well, by the way, we feel now that we have the capacity and firepower and capability to be able to take advantage of the growth opportunities, including the Kleenex exit, in our strong facial category.
spk03: That's great. And so with the commissioning of the facial tissue converting line, can you give some color into your integration rates and how this will affect that?
spk05: By integration rates, I assume you're talking about our ramp-up curve in terms of production. I won't give you any numbers other than to say that the Gatineau line, let's talk about both lines, the Gatineau line and the Gatineau team at our Gatineau facility, who already have facial equipment there, did an outstanding job of commissioning that line within a very short period of time and really got ahead of the ramp-up curve quickly. I give that team tremendous credit in what they have done. They should all be very proud. of what they were able to do in a time of much need. And then on the Phoenix side, you know, we had announced that that got delayed from Q4 into Q1 because of supply chain challenges, but that line started up in early February, and it, too, has exceeded its ramp-up curve at this point. Still early. We're only a few weeks into it. But that group in a Sherbrooke facility is also doing an outstanding job of beating the ramp up curve because we all understand that the market opportunity exists and consumers need facials. So everything we're making, we're basically selling. And I think that's a key motivator as much for older performance on the facial category.
spk03: Okay, thank you. I'll turn it over.
spk06: Thank you. And currently there are no further questions in the queue at this time, so I'll hand the floor back to our speakers for the closing comments.
spk05: Great. Thank you all for joining us on this call today. I again want to thank Mark and congratulate Michael, and I look forward to continuing to work with both of you over the coming years. As far as the earnings call, we look forward to speaking with you again following the release of our first quarter results. Thank you, and have a great day.
spk06: Thank you. This now concludes the conference. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.
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