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spk01: Please stand by, we're about to begin. Good day and welcome to the third quarter results 2022 Laurentian Bank Financial Group conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to hand the conference over to Andrew Trenenke, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
spk05: Bonjour à tous. Good morning and thank you for joining us. My name is Andrew Trenincky and I am the Head of Investor Relations at Laurentian Bank. Today's opening remarks will be delivered by Ronnie Llewellyn, President and CEO, and the review of the third quarter financial results will be presented by Yvon Deschamps, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, after which we will invite questions from the phone. Also joining us for the question period are several members of the bank's executive leadership team, Liam Mason, Chief Risk Officer, Eric Provol, Head of Commercial Banking, Karin Abdel-Teslic, Head of Personal Banking, and Kelsey Gunderson, Head of Capital Markets. All documents pertaining to the quarter can be found on our website in the Investor Center. I would like to remind you that during this conference call, forward-looking statements may be made, and it is possible that actual results may differ materially from those projected in such statements. For the complete cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to our press release or to slide two of the presentation. I would also like to remind listeners that the bank assesses its performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. Rania and Yvonne will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks and that's otherwise noted as reported. I'll now turn the call over to Rania.
spk06: Bonjour à tous. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I hope everyone had a nice summer and a chance to recharge. We are pleased with our performance this quarter and remain confident that we will exceed our financial targets for the year. On behalf of the entire management team, we would like to thank our one winning team for their efforts over the last quarter. They have continuously shown their resilience, and commitment to putting our customers first. The macroeconomic environment continues to be uncertain and volatile and is being weighed down by high inflation, very rapid interest rate increases, and geopolitical tensions. Notwithstanding, our results speak to the strength of our underlying businesses, our prudent approach to credit, disciplined cost management, and the progress we are making on executing against our plan. This quarter, total revenue grew by 2% and pre-tax, pre-provision income was up 6% year over year. Net income for the third quarter was $58.2 million, or 2% lower than a year earlier. As a result of higher provisions on performing loans, PCLs increased by $11.2 million or 11 basis points year over year to 16.6 million or 18 basis points. Earnings per share were $1.24 compared to $1.25 last year and ROE was 8.7%, down 20 basis points from a year ago. Following our record strong second quarter since 2018, revenue was relatively flat quarter over quarter. impacted by lower financial market-related non-interest revenues. PCLs increased by $3.6 million, or three basis points quarter over quarter. Pre-tax, pre-provision income, and net income were both down by 5% and 6%, respectively, while ROE was down 160 basis points, including the impact of the $3.3 million interest payment on limited recourse capital notes. Commercial banking had another strong quarter. Our commercial loan portfolio grew by $3.9 billion, or 29% year-over-year, and over $600 million, or 4% quarter-over-quarter. Personal deposits saw significant growth, up 17% year-over-year and 8% quarter-over-quarter, supporting our solid loan growth. Last quarter, we said that expenses would be higher in the second half of the year as we continue to deliver on key strategic initiatives, including digital onboarding and our reimagined visa experience. At 67.1%, our efficiency ratio improved by 130 basis points year over year, and at 66.4% year to date, we will exceed our fiscal 2022 target of less than 68%. The bank's CET capital ratio of 9.1% is down from 9.3% last quarter as we continue to redeploy capital in line with our strategic plan to support profitable, sustainable, organic growth. Our CET1 ratio remains above our pre-COVID level of 9%, and higher than our operating target of 8.5%. As outlined at our December 2021 Investor Day, our business lines play a key role in the success of our strategy. Commercial banking, our growth engine, continued to execute on its proven business model with a focus on its key specializations. Real estate financing was up by more than $300 million, or 3% from last quarter, to $9.7 billion. Results were mostly driven by the conversion of our strong unfunded pipeline in the construction portfolio to support the multi-residential segment as developers continue to catch up to the structural supply shortage in certain markets. Inventory financing was up $225 million, or 7% from last quarter, to $3.6 billion. driven by a more normalized pre-pandemic credit utilization rate of 51%. Equipment financing was up $50 million, or 3% from last quarter to $1.5 billion, driven mainly by the transportation and construction segments. As part of our strategy and commitment to diversify our geographic footprint, we now have 21% of our commercial loan portfolio in the U.S. exceeding our medium-term target of 18%. In capital markets, we saw significant volatility this quarter as markets digested various geopolitical risks and aggressive monetary tightening by central banks. In response, we continued to deliver on our focused and aligned strategy. First, in line with our objectives to expand coverage to our top-tier commercial clients, we offered a full suite of advice to our core clients as they navigated current macroeconomic conditions. This led to a strong quarter in SX. Second, we participated in six bank-issued preferred or limited recourse capital notes issuances as part of our priority to grow our syndicate positions with core corporate issuers. And third, we participated in four ESG-themed bonds including two new-to-market issuances by OPG and the Municipal Financing Authority of BC as part of our objective to participate in sustainable bond issuances. In personal banking, we are leading with a digital first approach to reposition the business for growth. To that end, we are pleased to announce the launch of our digital account opening solution. In partnership with ThirdStream, we were able to deploy digital account opening in just six months, which aligns with our strategy to partner versus build to get to market faster. Our digital onboarding rollout will focus first on our employees to ensure a seamless customer experience. As the solution is rolled out more broadly, it will allow us to continue acquiring new customers within Quebec, beyond our physical footprint, and as our launching pad to expanding our retail presence across the rest of Canada. Our initial focus will be on checking and deposit products. To enable the launch of digital account opening, we were able to utilize our recently announced cloud-based API solution in partnership with Kindrel. With this milestone, we now have a strong and proven foundation to deliver faster, more seamless, and innovative digital capabilities for our customers. Along with this key milestone, other digital achievements this quarter include the introduction of self-service password reset, which will help divert more than 5,000 calls per month from our contact center, and the launch of our refreshed public website, as well as our newly modernized online customer platform, LBC Direct. The new modernized LBC Direct ensures that our digital banking experience is consistent across all devices and improves the overall banking experience for our customers. We said that retention was also a key priority this year, and our recently launched loyalty team continues to make progress. For instance, our loyalty team's proactive outreach to GIC customers led to a 12% year-over-year increase in retention. In our year of execution, we have now successfully closed the top five digital pain points identified by our customers through the launch of contactless tap debit cards, mobile app, self-service password reset, refreshed web, and digital onboarding. Our strategy is also underpinned by a strong culture and a commitment to ESG. With culture as our driving force, we launched a new career path program for our personal bank advisors, participated in Pride events across the country, and partnered with Pride at Work Canada to build up and foster a culture where everyone belongs. In making a better choice, I am proud to announce that Laurentian Bank had the best year-over-year improvement among the big Canadian banks in the Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating Survey, and we moved into the low-risk category. This reflects the collective enterprise-wide effort to incorporate ESG best practices across all the bank's activities, including implementing a new ED&I policy for the board and employees. In wrapping up my remarks, I want to share a progress update with you. On a year-to-date basis, we are exceeding each of our 2022 financial targets. Our EPS growth is up 11%, exceeding our target of greater than 5%. ROE is 9.4%, exceeding our target of greater than 8.5%. Our efficiency ratio is 66.4%, or 160 basis points better than our target of less than 68%. And our operating leverage is positive at 3.9%. Our team continues to demonstrate their resilience through this volatile economic environment. We are confident and committed to executing on our strategy to deliver long-term, sustainable, and profitable growth, as well as exceeding our financial targets this year. I would now like to turn the call over to Yvan.
spk09: Merci, Rania, et bonjour à tous. I would like to begin by turning to slide 13. which highlights the bank's financial performance for the third quarter of 2020. Report to DPS was $1.18, and net income was $55.9 million. Adjusting items this quarter amounted to $3.1 million before taxes, or 6 cents per share, and are related to the amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets. Details of adjusting items are shown on slide 27. The remainder of my comments will focus on adjusted results. EPS and ROE were $1.24 and 8.7%, a decrease of one cent and 20 basis points respectively compared to a year ago. The pre-tax pre-provision income or PPPP was $85.5 million, a 6% increase from last year. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, EPS and ROE decreased by 11% and 160 basis points, respectively, while PTPP decreased by 5%. The key elements of variation this quarter related to the $3.3 million interest payments on LRCN, lower financial market-related non-interest revenues due to volatile market conditions, an increase in PCLs as a result of higher provisions on performing loans due to the less favorable macroeconomic outlook, and strategic investments to close key foundational gaps and support growth. Slide 14 shows the increase of net interest income by 8% year-over-year. On a sequential basis, it increased by 5%, mainly due to the positive impact of three additional days in the quarter and higher interest income from commercial loans, partly upset by higher funding costs and liquidity levels. At 1.83%, NIM was down four basis points quarter over quarter. We made the decision this quarter to prudently carry a higher level of liquidity based on our strong asset growth this year and to reduce funding risks in a period of economic volatility. This, along with the timing lag of asset repricing, resulted in the quarter-over-quarter decrease. Other income, as presented on slide 15, decreased by 11%, compared with a year ago, and 10% sequentially. This quarter, the decrease was mainly as a result of the volatile financial markets unfavorably impacting fees and securities brokerage commissions, commissions on sales of mutual funds, and income from financial instruments. Non-interest expenses, as shown on slide 16, were flat compared to a year ago, despite our strategic investment to close key foundational gaps, improve the customer experience, and accelerate business development activities to support growth. These were offset by lower amortization charges and rent expenses. Sequentially, non-interest expenses increased by 3%, mainly due to the aforementioned strategic investments, as well as higher professional and advertising fees, also to support growth, partly offset by lower performance-based compensation. The increase this quarter was in line with our previous guidance. As a result, the efficiency ratio this quarter was higher by 190 basis points sequentially to 67.1%. However, as Rania mentioned in her remarks, we are seeing sustained improvement year over year as we were able to grow revenues and maintain our focus on cost assistance. Slide 17 presents our diversified sources of funding. Sequentially, deposits increased by 6%, or $1.4 billion, while loans grew by 2%. Compared to last year, deposits grew by 15%, while loans grew by 11%. This tracks positively with our objective of growing deposits and loans in line. Slide 18 highlights our capital position. CT1 capital ratio, which is presented under the standardized approach, stood at 9.1% compared to 9.3% last quarter. This quarter's variation was once again linked to the redeployment of capital accumulated during the pandemic to sustainable, profitable commercial loan growth in line with our strategic plan. Our CT1 ratio remains above our pre-COVID level of 9% and higher than our minimal operating level of 8.5%. In line with our disciplined approach to managing capital, the bank is reintroducing a 2% discount as part of its DRIP program. Slide 19 highlights the commercial loan portfolio, which delivered strong growth. Loans increased by over $600 million, or 4% quarter over quarter, driven by growth in real estate financing of over $300 million, or 3%, and inventory financing of over $225 million, or 7%. Our results in real estate were driven by the realization of our strong pipeline, particularly in the construction portfolio for the multi-residential segment. Inventory financing continued to make market share gains and experience normalization and utilization rates. Slide 20. presents the pan-Canadian residential mortgage loan portfolio. Residential mortgage loans increase by 1%, both year-over-year and sequentially, in line with our objective of portfolio stabilization. The bank's residential mortgage portfolio remains relatively weighted towards insured mortgages at 56%, and combined with a low LTV of 44% on the uninsured portfolio, contributes to reducing the overall risk of this business. Turning to slide 21, allowances for credit losses total $193.2 million, a sequential decrease of $9.6 million, mainly due to write-ups of previously provisioned accounts in the commercial loan portfolio. As shown on slide 22, The provision for credit losses was $16.6 million in the third quarter of 2022, increasing by $11.2 million from a year ago. This was mainly due to higher provisions on performing loans as a result of volume growth in the commercial loan book and less favorable macroeconomic outlook. Last year also saw a release of provisions on performing loans. Sequentially, the provision for credit losses increased by $3.6 million, mainly for the same reason. The PCL ratio stood at 18 basis points. Slide 23 highlights the improving trend in gross impaired loans, which decreased by $29.1 million quarter-over-quarter. mainly due to favorable repayments and write-offs of previously provisioned accounts in the commercial loan portfolio. We continue to manage our risk with a prudent and disciplined approach and remain adequately provisioned. I would now like to offer some thoughts on how we see the remainder of the year developing. We anticipate a relatively stable capital level for Q4 as a result of tempering loan growth supported by internal capital generation. We expect modest revenue growth in Q4 on the back of the recent commercial loan growth and early indicators showing a partial rebound in capital markets activity. We are forecasting RNM to be in the mid-180s for Q4, an increase of a few basis points versus Q3. For the full year, we expect to be at or slightly above our target of 1.85%. Overall expenses are expected to remain elevated in Q4, slightly above Q3. For the year, we will remain below our 2022 efficiency ratio target of less than 68%, leading to a positive operating leverage. The provision for credit losses remains difficult to predict on a quarterly basis, given the uncertain macroeconomic environment. Overall, we expect PTP PPP to increase slightly in Q4, and we remain confident that we will exceed our 2022 financial targets. I will now turn the call to Andrew.
spk05: At this point, I would like to turn the call over to the conference operator for the question and answer session. Alexandra, we're ready for our first question.
spk01: Of course, thank you. And if you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, it is star 1 if you'd like to ask a question. And we'll go ahead and take our first question from Manny Groman with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
spk11: Hi, good morning. I'd like to talk about capitals. Yvonne, you gave some guidance for the rest of the year, and we've talked about this before. You highlighted moderating loan growth for Q4, keeping the capital ratio relatively stable, if I got that correct. And just on that guidance in terms of moderating loan growth, is this something that you're actively doing, or is this just a broader comment on the market as a whole? slowing down. And if that's the case, do you see evidence of that sort of early days in Q4 already?
spk09: Yeah, thank you for the question, Manny. I think it's an important one, and I'm really pleased to just add a few comments on that. But if you allow me, I'll just start by doing a step back. And we're currently at 9.1% CT1, which is above the 8.5% minimal range. So we still have a good buffer there, but It's very important to look at the past. So pre-pandemic, we were at 9%. So we're pretty much back to the level that we had pre-pandemic because the pandemic definitely impacted a few portfolios. And we had accumulated capital during that period. And our first priority has always been to redeploy that capital. And we're really pleased with the exceptional growth that we had in commercial growth over the last 12 months, pretty much. So at this point, it's not a question of wanting to slow it down. It's a question of normalization because we did redeploy that capital and the specialty inventory financing is normalizing in terms of market growth at this point. So the utilization rate, as mentioned by Rania, now 51%, which is closer to historical level. So that is slowing down. And that's just a reflection of the growth that we had over the last year. So we're still managing prudently the capital and are pleased with the level and expect at this point that the capital generation internally is going to sustain a more normalized growth going forward.
spk06: And, Mani, just to add to what Yvonne was saying, we are constantly proactively managing prudently our capital. And so, you know, we did pause the share buyback in Q2. We're reintroducing the 2% drip. And given the current macroeconomic conditions, making sure that our growth is profitable and we're looking at a risk-adjusted return. So it's not growth for the sake of growth, but just being more diligent and proactively managing that growth going forward.
spk11: Thanks for that. I guess where I'm coming from is commercial loan growth just seems remarkably strong and And if I look across the peer group, it doesn't seem like it's flowing in the near term. Certainly, it's come in higher than expected, I think, even higher than you had guided to and expected. So the question is, in Q4, if it doesn't flow as you expect, what are the implications of that? So that's what I'm trying to understand. Is it something that you can actively flow, or do you have other levers that you can use in order to offset that tremendous RWA growth that you're seeing?
spk09: Yeah, so definitely I would say any institution, including us, we do have what we call a capital toolkit, right? So depending on what's happening in the market, we will adjust. Can we slow down some growth? Definitely we could slow down some growth if we see higher growth in other portfolios. So we're not uncomfortable, many at this point, with the level of capital that we have. And we feel that we have a few tweaks. But as mentioned by Rania, we're taking proactive actions, like we stopped the share buyback last quarter. We reintroduced the drip this quarter, which is a reflection of the economy, but is also a reflection, honestly, of the growth that we have. So we are taking proactive moves, but we definitely have contingency plans in case we would need to address them. But at this point, what we see in our crystal ball, which is hard, it's not a pure science, is that we should be roughly in line with internal capital generation next quarter.
spk11: Thanks a lot.
spk01: And we'll go ahead and take our next question from Gabriel DeChane with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
spk07: Good morning. I just want to talk about the margin. A few things here coming to mind. One, I get the idea that you want to make the balance sheet more liquid during volatile times. But from Q2 to Q3, it's not like the... world has really gotten dramatically worse. Was volatile in Q2? Volatile in Q3? Just wondering what changed the perspective there. And also, to what extent did you maybe get caught off guard by some rapidly increasing costs in the broker channel where the deposit growth was the highest at the bank? I mean, I get that you've got to be nimble and all that, but it's not like the world got... you know, dramatically worse this quarter. It's about the same as IE bad as it was in Q2.
spk09: Yeah, so thank you for your question, Gabriel. I'll take that one. So the level of liquidity is a reflection of two items. So definitely the uncertain times led us to be prudent in the context and, you know, gather more liquidity and what's great is the liquidity, if you look at it, it came from the deposit side, right? So we didn't pull it from the wholesale or something like that. So we're really pleased with the deposit gathering that we had over the last quarter. The second thing is that if you look at the growth, definitely the growth of commercial was excessively at performance over the last 12 months. So that leads us to, or that led us to be more conservative and prudent last quarter and Because again, we just wanted to make sure from a liquidity perspective, we would be careful and manage accordingly. So it did impact the NIM by about two basis points. So half of the difference between last quarter and this quarter relates to the level of liquidity. So we've seen a tempering of that, which was exceptional in Q2. was still pretty good in Q3, but lower than it was in Q2. So the exceptional deposit gathering definitely created an excess of liquidity, but I much prefer being in that position than the reverse. And that will allow us to gradually redeploy those liquidity into loans that will have better margins, which will contribute to this, and I would call that impact transitory, because it's going to come back over the next quarter or two.
spk07: So, you know, loan growth came in, you know, faster than anticipated, I guess. So you decided to, you know, step on the gas a bit in the deposit channel. But for Q4, you might do less of that because you've got the excess liquidity already on the balance sheet. Can you talk about that?
spk09: I think it's right here. So if I work for only one month. Sorry. Did you want to add something?
spk07: Do you have any comments on the increase in funding costs at the brokerage channel, or is that not a factor at all?
spk09: Yeah, there are two things. So I'll comment on your first portion, and I'll answer that one after. So we're one month in. So I would say with the level of liquidity that we had at the end of the quarter, we slowed down in terms of the deposit gathering at this point. So that's going to help gradually in Q4 and going forward. But the deposit came in very strong in the demand deposits as well as the broker GIC term deposits. And we've been very successful there, not only playing with rates in that market, as you can expect, but also building relationships and deepening the relationship that we have, which also brought more deposits than we expected. So we're really, really pleased with the performance that we had, not only last quarter, but if you look at the four years since last year, we grew by 15% at the deposit base, which for me has been a real key changer at the bank versus what we had in the previous years.
spk07: Okay, thanks, and enjoy the last few days of summer.
spk09: Thank you.
spk01: And we'll go ahead and move on to our next question from Paul Holden with CIBC. Please go ahead.
spk13: Thank you. Good morning. I want to continue the discussion on NIM and maybe we'll just put aside sort of the explanations you just provided to Gabe's questions. Because you provided some guidance last quarter, which said that you get more of a NIM benefit from Bank of Canada rates in 2023 versus 2022. So again, kind of putting aside the liquidity explanation, why just remind us on why that is? Is that just assets take longer to reprice than deposits?
spk09: It's a very good question. So a few elements there. So the first one that I did not mention yet is really the change in the mortgage retention, which I think is a short-term pain but a very nice long-term gain. And Karine and her team have been very successful at increasing the retention of the mortgages due to the loyalty activities that we have there, probably partly because of the increasing rate as well. but we're really happy with the retention that we had. So that created less prepayment penalties this quarter. That means that we're going to keep the customers on a long-term basis, but that did create probably one basis, one point of NIM that we did not anticipate, but we're really pleased with the results. The second one is the liquidity. We probably pulled a bit more than we expected in the context of the assets. But I discussed that one, and I think it's really trend story, and it's going to change over time. The last one is really the repricing of the asset, and I know I'm not the only one that mentioned that. So the funding costs always go up in terms of anticipation. The repricing is a question of contracts, and it's also a question of discipline in the markets. So a portion of the lagging in terms of repricing is due to contracts, meaning that the increases need to happen so that we can implement it via the contract that we have with the customers versus the funding will have increased a few months before. The second element to that is I would call it market discipline. So if you look in some products, definitely the funding costs went way faster than what you would see in the pricing. But it's not only a question of Laurentian, it's a question of market discipline. But again, I'm optimistic, and I see that also as transitory, and the market discipline should come back over the next quarter.
spk13: Okay. So then a couple follow-ups to that answer. First on the contracts, I'm assuming these renew annually, so maybe you can confirm or correct me on that assumption. And then... to does your view on a benefit from Bank of Canada rate increases in 2023, does that still stand?
spk09: Yeah, and thanks for digging. I think it's good that I had a few comments. So it's not a yearly thing in terms of contracts, but I'll give you an easy example. The funding rates will increase. But, you know, the loans that are based on prime will only increase when Bank of Canada officially increases. So there's a lag between that funding and the prime increase for the customer. And in some other contracts that we have with the customers as well, the variable rate is based on the prior month. So you may get a few weeks of delay. In the context where we've seen pretty big increases over the last quarter and frequent increases, That creates a lag, but that one is really transitional and is going to come back relatively quickly. The only thing I'd be careful is that we still anticipate increases of interest rates over the next two quarters or so. So I would expect that that lag will last a little bit longer. But again, as the interest rates increases, you know, stabilize or stop, we will catch up to that element. So I'll reserve my comments on 23, but I would say that we're still positioned to take advantage because of all the elements I discussed, as we will reduce the liquidity, as we will reprice the variable rate contract that I just mentioned, and as well as we will continue to evolve the portfolio mix, we see that they're still upside on the NEM side.
spk13: Okay, that's very helpful. And one more question from me, if I can. You pointed out you're exceeding all of your 2022 financial targets, so that's great. And I guess my question is, does that enable you to accelerate any of the strategic investments you need to make in that business, whether that comes in Q4 or in the following year?
spk09: The first thing is definitely it allowed us to sustain the investments that we're doing. We also mentioned last quarter that we would keep an elevated level of expenses for the remainder of 2022. So it definitely did allow us to push and invest a bit more, not only in the strategic investments, but also to support the growth because we had the fantastic growth over the last 12 months. And we need to make sure that we sustain the level of service to the customers. And for us, it's something that we look at as customer first is our principle. So definitely we had to invest there. We continue to invest there. But on the strategic initiatives, in fact, Aless Rania had comments on it, but she already reflected in her remarks a lot of the accomplishments we had this quarter.
spk06: Paul, thanks for the question. Obviously, it's a dynamic process in terms of us managing our expenses, looking at our projects, the majority of which are strategic, but we do also have some other non-strategic projects. It's really important to make sure we have the right balance between investing in the future and having the right cost discipline, particularly in a volatile, uncertain macroeconomic environment. We've been consistent in terms of what our target is this year. We'll be coming back to the street in Q4 as we finalize our budget and what our strategic plans are for delivery and execution is for next year. We've got lots of levers that we can play around, but making sure that we manage our expenses in line with the growth is also very important. So making sure we have that cost discipline is key. We've always said You know, at Laurentian Bank, we have two opportunities here. It's top-line revenue growth and efficiency. So there's a number of other efficiencies that we're looking at, and we will continue to invest in that. So we're comfortable with the level of investments at this point.
spk13: Great. Look forward to the 2023 outlook next quarter. Thank you.
spk06: Thanks, Paul.
spk01: We'll go ahead and move on to our next question from Sarabha. with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk12: Thank you. Just wanted to make sure I heard a few things correctly. I think part of the reason why you mentioned commercial loan growth came in a little bit hotter than you had expected was, I guess, faster normalization in utilization rates. Is that the right way of thinking about it?
spk09: Yes, it is, Sora.
spk12: So just as a matter of curiosity, how much of it would you say was kind of existing clients drawing down more versus just building the portfolio with new clients?
spk08: Yes, so Rob, it's Eric. Just commenting on that and thank you for the question. Actually, it's really a mix. The way the team is deployed, we've been able to keep winning market share So we're up 20% year over year in terms of our dealer base. So that is a contributor. But for sure, with the macroeconomic environment, we saw demand for those products normalizing. So that is the big factor in terms of credit line utilization of our existing dealer base in the portfolio. Really a mix of both. Like we're successful onboarding new business, but definitely consumers right now are more tempered in their demand for these types of products.
spk09: And maybe to add a bit of color on that. So normalizing is a word that is very important. And when we say normalizing, it's not negative. In fact, going back to the normal environment we had pre-COVID, where the dealers will go back to the normal utilization level of their lines within a context where the consumer demand is back to what it was. So if you go back in the COVID environment, the demand was extremely high from the consumers, and that's why the portfolio reduced, but we're going back to normal level, and we're going to go back to normal level of growth with that portfolio.
spk12: Okay. But I suppose the normalization was a bit of a surprise to you. Is that the right way to think about it? You didn't expect it to normalize as quickly as it did?
spk08: Yeah, not as quickly, Saurabh, for sure, because pre-season ordering for the dealers occur usually in the fall season, early winter. So that was prior to the war, prior to interest rate hikes. So those orderings, occurred very strongly again for the 2022 season in anticipation of another strong year. And then the dealers are just coming out of two exceptional years. So I just think that they forecasted higher demand. And with the macroeconomic environment, it just slowed down consumer to more normal pace. Like utilization right now at 51. If you go pre-COVID in 2019, during that summer, utilization was at 55%. So we're not even catched up, but definitely it was quicker than expected.
spk12: I mean, Eric, every indication is that maybe the economic outlook is going to further slow down. Do you worry that...
spk08: the normalization may mean a lower low this cycle on these utilization rates well right now we're we're very comfortable where we are with the portfolio and we haven't changed our way to underwrite so so we feel confident about where we are and and normalization doesn't mean stop into these these sectors so this summer we saw a good liquidation of products we're tracking KPIs on aging inventory and and and liquidation so so we're monitoring that portfolio very closely but but no for now we're we're comfortable where we are and and we'll see what's ahead but no no concerns so far
spk06: Maybe if I can just add a little bit of color, because it is inventory financing, it's Rania. When consumer demands actually slows down and the dealers have ordered the unit, it actually improves the utilization for us. They start drawing down on our facilities, which actually earns us revenue. One of the things we're watching out for, and I know our dealers are as well, is the aging of the inventory, making sure that they are slowing down on their orders. So again, just a reminder in terms of when demand slows down and they're sitting on inventory, they're actually drawing down on our facilities, which generates revenue for us. And so that's why the pre-pandemic levels of 55%. So I think where the surprise is, is the supply chain came back very quickly, faster than we anticipated. The products are still being sold and there's really no aging in the inventory. So from a PCL perspective, we're very, very comfortable, and we know that our dealers are being prudent in terms of their ordering season going into this session.
spk12: Okay. I just have two quick questions, one follow-up to that. I mean, Liam, if your borrowers end up having to sit on inventory because of lack of demand, what ripple effect does that have? on your, what implications does it have on your reserve building requirements?
spk10: Well, first of all, Saurabh, thank you for the question. We do have a disciplined reserving process against those inventories. I would know we've got some five layers of protection on that portfolio. We have the collateral itself, which is at wholesale prices. You've got the backing of the dealership. Many of the dealers have personal guarantees on the dealer. Your OEMs, your manufacturers have repurchased arrangements, and then we have a curtailment process where if you're not seeing the turnover. But right now, the liquidation rates are normalizing, as Eric said. We're not seeing a lot from an aged inventory standpoint. This is a very operational business. We're on the ground doing inspections, looking at the inventory. But we really don't see any cause for concern. And given the layers of protection and given our reserving, comfortable with that portfolio at this juncture. It's more of a return to normal than a slowdown or a recessionary impact.
spk12: Okay, so just for crystal clarity, you will earn higher spreads when dealers are using the facility because of a slowdown in demand. without any implications for reserve building. Is that what you're telling me?
spk10: No, no, no. Just to be clear, as we earn those spreads, our discipline is to maintain appropriate ACLs against that growth. And indeed, if I might jump in here, sort of one of the big drivers of our increase in ACLs was our prudent measured approach, and we increased reserves commensurate with that volume. That's our discipline. That's how we maintain ensuring that we have the credit protections that we need, in addition to the layers of protection I mentioned.
spk12: Okay. And Yvonne, I mean, I think to an earlier question, you suggested that the circumstances, let's just say, meant being a bit more prudent on reserves, sorry, liquidity higher liquidity levels was prudent. Why don't you think you will have to retain a higher liquidity, let's say, for the next couple of quarters because the macro uncertainty is certainly not lessening, it's intensifying?
spk09: It's a good question, Saurabh, and I didn't say that we would let it all go in Q4. To be clear, we're going to look at what's happening in the environment. We're going to look at the growth that we're having as well. We will redeploy some of it in the growth because currently we did gather a lot in last quarter, so we believe that we're at the point we can use some of it, but definitely I think we can be accused of being prudent, and we'll probably continue to be prudent for a few quarters. So we may hold a little bit of liquidity for the next few quarters, but I would expect gradually to see that reduce.
spk12: Thank you for taking my question.
spk09: Thank you.
spk01: And we'll move on to our next question from Doug Young with Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
spk02: Hi, good morning. Just on the performing loan build, just trying to get a sense of, I believe it was more associated with the commercial side. Is this related to the inventory finance book? Is this across the board? And I do think there was a bit of an uptick in commercial write-offs this quarter. Correct me if I'm wrong. Again, was this more related to the inventory being longer dated or is this across the board? Just hoping to get a sense of those two themes and what segments they relate to.
spk10: Why don't I have my colleague, Derek, speak to the growth in the portfolio, and then I'll take the right off question, Derek.
spk08: Yeah, thank you, Doug. Well, the growth was really from all across, but mainly driven by commercial real estate as well as inventory financing. And then to pinpoint inventory financing, actually, we are at record low aging, like the Coming out from these two years, definitely the dealers and the portfolio there is very healthy. And like Liam just explained, we are well-reserved and protected into this segment, and we feel comfortable there. So Liam, maybe more details on the write-offs? Sure.
spk10: Thanks, Eric. You've got to be really pleased with that growth. The write-offs are normal ebbs and flows in our commercial file management. The files were fully provisioned. And if you look at our jills, I'm actually really pleased. Our gross repair loans are coming down, down $29 million. And we're seeing, with that jill drop, either things returning to performing or getting written off. But these were longstanding files. We have a very client-centric approach managing workouts, and they were fully provisioned. So not indication of any trend or any concentration, and certainly not related to inventory finance.
spk09: This is Yvan. If I can be extremely crystal clear, the performing loan increase in commercial was due to the macroeconomic factor. It was not related to any particular portfolio, so it's really driven by the environment. Liam mentioned, the writer's is much more clean up than something you write because they were fully provisioned for.
spk10: Yeah, just to drive that point home, if you think back to last quarter, we were one of the banks that, looking at the economic environment, saw sort of the volatility and the weaker economic environment coming, and we updated our economic assumptions and the weightings of our outlook. And that served us very well. And this quarter, given the change in the macroeconomic outlook that's been highlighted by many of the banks, and in line with our prudent approach to reserving, we made further adjustments to the assumptions and the weight. And that's really, to Vaughn's point, what's driving it. We continue to be prudent and measured, and that's part of our DNA and how we operate.
spk02: Okay, so what we're seeing in the write-offs and the performing loan builds around the commercial side, this isn't anything to do specifically with a particular portfolio like inventory finance. This is more, as you say, cleanup across the book and across the different segments.
spk09: Yes.
spk02: Okay, and then just on the set-one ratio, And the sequential decline, you know, this might be a simple answer, but I mean, RWA was up 4% quarter over quarter. I think the loan book was up 2% quarter over quarter. So there's a bit of a difference there. Can you maybe detail a bit of what the driver was? Are you seeing migration impacting the RWA? I guess it wouldn't be migration, but is this just a portfolio mix? Just trying to get a sense of that.
spk10: It's really portfolio mix. We're not seeing any adverse migration. You can see that in our Stage 1 and Stage 2 elements across the commercial world. So it's really portfolio mix.
spk02: Okay. That's all from me. Thank you.
spk01: We'll go ahead and move on to our next question from Nigel DeSouza with Veritas. Please go ahead.
spk03: Thank you. Good morning. I had a question for you on your interesting comments. sensitivity disclosure, I noticed that the increase in NII over the last 12 months, last quarter that was about 12 million from a 1% increase, and this quarter it's less than a billion. So, just wondering what led to that decrease in NII benefit. Is that mainly on your expectation for higher deposit data, or would it be appreciated?
spk09: Yeah, thank you for your question, Nigel. So the first thing is we definitely dynamically manage the balance sheet, and that stress test is really the position that you have at one single point in time, which is exactly at the end of the quarter. So if you look at the last few quarters, I think if I round the numbers, we have $1 million this quarter, we had $12 million last quarter. You look at the one before, we had $3 million, and the one before, we had $15 million. I wouldn't see too much in it at this point. We remain, you know, positioned to take advantage of increases in interest rates. And as I mentioned, we're going to see or we expect to see two phases points increase next quarter. And I mentioned already a few drivers of increase in terms of margins and NII coming from reducing gradually the level of liquidity.
spk03: portfolio mix is going to be an impact as well and I mentioned the repricing so I wouldn't read too much in the stress test it's really a single point in time and that does fluctuate on the daily basis okay and then maybe tie that together with your name outlook on slide 29 for them to exceed 1.9% of the media turn could you remind me again that expectation is that driven by your expectation for margin expansion in the existing portfolio, or a change in the long portfolio mix?
spk09: Yeah, I would simply just, in fact, repeat what I just mentioned, Nigel, because it's a contribution of various factors. Definitely, the portfolio mix has an impact, so we've seen growth in commercial, and that does contribute. A reduction that we would expect a little bit on the liquidity side with impact as well. And at one point, the repricing of the assets will have an impact. So it's really all those points, and that's all understanding that the discipline has to be in the market in terms of repricing of the assets also.
spk03: Okay. Sounds like a combination of factors. So if I could just switch gears, then maybe a broader question. Looking at your FLI, it doesn't look like a recession is your base case scenario at the moment, but If that does change and the base case scenario is one of the recessions, does that impact your strategic roadmap or your strategic plan going forward? How does that change?
spk10: Why don't I talk about the scenario and then I'll pass it to Rania on the strategic side. We have updated our scenarios as we do every quarter in a regular process and look forward Our pessimistic scenario does include moving to a lower economic growth pattern, call it recession, and how long and prolonged that is depends on how the macroeconomic conditions evolve. I mean, you heard from Jackson Hole, the Fed chair, you've heard the Bank of Canada indicate they are going to be moving to reduce inflation, and that's going to have a direct impact on the economy, and we factor that in. As I mentioned earlier, we've also adjusted the weightings on our outlook across our economic scenarios, both last quarter and this quarter, to put more weight on the weaker scenarios. And our reserving will remain prudent and will adjust accordingly. In terms of the strategic implications for that and how the economic profile might affect our strategy, RENYA.
spk06: Yeah, so thanks for that question. What I would say is, as I had mentioned, we've delivered on a lot of things this year, right? So we said it's a digital-first approach. We said we were going to grow the commercial book of business. We're going to diversify. So we feel pretty confident that we've built a lot of foundational pieces that, you know, should we decide to slow down some other strategic projects? we have enough of a foundation that we can use it as a launching pad for growth, acquisition, retention, cross-selling, while being very selective as to where else do we want to invest in. So I think we have the appropriate levers. We feel we're very well positioned at this point, both from a provisioning perspective as well as from an expense management perspective. but it's definitely something that we will come back to you in Q4 to kind of outline what are some of the strategic deliverables we're going to deliver on. But we're very committed to our three-year strategic plan. We've been executing according to the plan, and so we'll continue to, like I said, dynamically manage where we need to depending on how the conditions change.
spk03: Does that answer your question? Yeah, it did. That was helpful. Thank you.
spk01: And we'll move on to our next question from Marcel McLean with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
spk04: Okay, thank you. Two real quick ones for me. Just going back to the capital, you said you had a toolkit there that you can deploy if loan growth continues to exceed expectations. Just wondering if an ATM is part of that. I know one of your peers has been using it for a number of quarters, and maybe if there's a certain level where that does get implemented, when you dip below this 9%, that was your pre-pandemic level, or are you comfortable letting it drop to 8.5? Just kind of wondering what your thoughts are on that.
spk09: Thank you for your question. That's a good one. I don't want to go too much into the details of my toolkit, as you can imagine. But what I can say definitely is ATM is not at the top of that list, right? So at this point, we're pretty comfortable with the level where we stand. And I mentioned pre-pandemic, we're at 9%. So it's not like we're very low. We're just getting back to where we were, which is a normal level for the bank. Our minimum is 8.5, so we still have a cushion. So again, I'm going to repeat a bit myself. We stopped the share buyback. We reintroduced the drip. So there's a few things like that we can easily do. but the ATM is not on the forecast for now.
spk04: Okay. And then, secondly, on the NIM, if I'm hearing you correctly, we're going to have to wait until we see a period, a quarter, where we see stability in the Bank of Canada rate before we really start to see an improvement in your NIM, and that's when the improvement might come through more. Am I hearing that correct, or is there more to it? No, no.
spk09: Yeah, I'll answer with a yes and a no to that. So the first thing is we mentioned that we're going to see an expansion of the NIM or we expect to see one in Q4. And we'll provide more guidance on 23. And again, I don't want to be too much myself, but liquidity level, asset mix, and the lag of repricing. What I'm going to answer, you may be right in a certain way, is the repricing of the loans. Because the fact that for the part of the loan that I have that has a repricing lag of a month or a few days or something like that, definitely as the interest rates stop increasing, we're going to catch up fully. So that will have an impact. And the other pricing lag that I discussed is relative to the market, and that one is a bigger question and an industry-wide question.
spk04: Okay. Thank you. That's it for me today.
spk01: And we'll go ahead and take our last question from Juho Kim with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
spk03: Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Just had a couple quick ones here. Just on tax rate, was it lower than what we saw prior period? So just wondering if there's anything unusual or one time in nature. I'm just trying to get a sense of whether that 15% in effective tax rate is appropriate going forward.
spk09: It's a very good question, Joe, and a big portion of that is technical. So this quarter, about 16, last quarter, 20. About close to half of it is coming from the repayment of the LRCN because the way it's done is the interest payment is done below the net income while the tax is impacting the net income. So every time we have the interest payment, it does reduce the tax rate. So you would see that every six months because we pay that every six months. The rest is a mixed bag depending on the level of profitability of the various elements. So next quarter, just pick something in the middle of that and you should get closer to what we would expect for Q4.
spk03: Thanks for that. And last one for me, just on your non-interest driving you, When I look at the sort of more traditional retail banking revenue, we saw a decrease in lending fee service and sort of card revenue on a year-over-year basis. Just wondering what's from that year-over-year decline this quarter.
spk06: Sorry, if you can just speak up a little louder. It was really hard to hear. Oh, sorry.
spk03: Sorry, can you hear me better now?
spk06: It's still a little staticky, so...
spk03: Sorry, I'll try it again. I just had a question on the non-interest revenue. When I look at the traditional retail banking revenue, like the cards fees and service fees, they were down over here. Just wondering what drove that decline this quarter.
spk09: Yeah, the key element this quarter relative to that would be card services. So it's lower this quarter because we had a promotion program to increase the velocity and use of the credit cards. So that impacts Q3, in fact, by a little bit more than $1 million. So this one is really a one-time. So you would see that being corrected in Q4 in terms of level of revenue. The rest, I would say, is relatively in line versus what you would have seen over the last few quarters. So again, just to be very clear, we would expect the visa revenue to increase back to pretty much where it was in Q4.
spk03: Thank you. That's for me.
spk01: And with that, that does conclude our question and answer session for today. I would now like to hand the call back over to our CEO, Rania Llewellyn, for any additional closing remarks.
spk06: In closing, following a solid Q3, we will continue to execute against our strategy as we head into Q4. Our credit quality is sound and we are confident in our strong underwriting practices and highly collateralized portfolio. We will continue to apply strong cost discipline across the organization and identify additional cost optimization opportunities. Our one winning team is engaged and continues to show resilience through this period of volatility. We remain confident in our ability to exceed our 2022 financial targets. Thank you for joining the call today.
spk01: And with that, that does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
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