5/21/2020

speaker
Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Polaris Infrastructure, Inc. first quarter 2020 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 on your telephone. If you require any further assistance, please press star 0. I would now like to hand the conference over to Anton Jellick, CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

speaker
Anton Jellick
CFO

Thanks, Cheryl. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the 2020 Q1 earnings call for Polaris Infrastructure. In addition to the press release issued earlier today, you can find our financial statements, MD&A, and earnings press release on both CDAR and shortly on our website at polarisinfrastructure.com. Unless noted otherwise, all dollar amounts referred to are denominated in U.S. dollars. I'd also like to remind you all that comments made during this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation regarding the future performance of Polaris Infrastructure Inc. and its subsidiaries. These statements are current expectations and, as such, are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. These risks and uncertainties include the factors discussed in the company's annual information form for the year ended December 31st, 2019. I'm joined this morning as always by Mark Murnaghan, Chief Executive Officer of Polaris Infrastructure. As well, before I begin, I would just like to share Polaris' hope that all of you are managing through these unique circumstances and trust you and your families are staying well during these challenging times. At this point, I will walk through our 2020 Q1 financial highlights and then comment on our recently paid quarterly dividend, after which I will return the call over to Mark for additional commentary. Power generation. Consolidated power generation for the three months ending March 31st, 2020 and 2019 were 182,408 megawatt hours and 147,602 megawatt hours respectively. These production figures are all net of plant downtime, both planned and unplanned. With respect to Nicaragua, we saw total megawatt hours of 135,344 in the first quarter of 2020 versus 138,823 in the same period in 2019, just slightly down. In Peru, total megawatt hours for the three months ending March 31st, 2020 were 47,000 064 versus 8,779 in the three months ending March 31st, 2019. Revenue, we reported revenue of 20.3 million for the three months ending March 31st, 2020, compared to 18.6 million in the same period last year. On a year-over-year consolidated basis, we realized 1.7 million additional revenue driven by an additional 17.5 megawatts. net production in Peru, notwithstanding previously reported incident at the end of February at El Canaman that is being repaired, and that Mark will address further in his comments. Net earnings. We recognized earnings attributable to us of $4.4 million for the three months ending March 31, 2020, compared to $3.4 million for the same period in 2019. The $1 million increase in earnings was driven primarily by the increase in revenue, coupled with the increase in other gains and losses recognized in the period, and partly offset by the addition and depreciation charges due to the Generacion Andina facilities coming online. Adjusted EBITDA. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, adjusted EBITDA increased to $17 million from $15.7 million principally as a result of the $1.7 million increase in revenue, partly offset by a $.2 million increase in direct costs recognized during this period. Cash generation. Cash flow from operations during the three months ended March 31st increased by 0.8 million to 11.6 million from 10.8 million due to the increase in revenue coupled with lower interest paid when compared to the same period in 2019, partly offset by increase in direct costs. And finally, dividend. I would just like to note that we intend on paying our 17th consecutive quarterly dividend on May 29th of 15 cents per share to shareholders of record on May 15th. This continues the board and management's commitment to regular positive distributions to shareholders of Polaris. With that, I will turn the call over to Mark, who will elaborate on current business matters as well as on our quarterly results. Apologize. Thank you.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Thanks, Anton. So I'm going to just make some comments here. The first thing I would say in terms of the dividend, the payout ratio, in the quarter we had sort of cash available for distribution of around $9.3 million on an actual basis, the way that we calculated, but that doesn't include certain items that you would call it normally accrue for that would happen in other quarters. So I think that number is closer to seven and a half. if you accrue for those items, which means your payout ratio is sort of in the low to mid-30s, which I still think is quite conservative for the quarter. One thing that I did want to mention here, which is interesting, is... We did have a small savings in the quarter on our interest costs of about $120,000 on an apples-to-apples comparison basis from Q4 to Q1. It's not huge, but it's a small benefit. And we'll see where this current quarter ends up, but the calculation is of March 15th to June 15th. calculations to when we put the pin in the interest rate for our senior debt at San Jacinto. This is what I'm talking about right now. But if it stayed where it is, the savings would actually start to be reasonable between sort of $400,000 to $500,000 a quarter. Now, that's not going to bump your EBITDA line, obviously, but it is a reasonable quarterly improvement in your cash flow, given the fact that LIBOR has come down pretty significantly since the end of the year. um major maintenance so uh at san acinto we normally where we had planned to do major maintenance in april of this year given covid that obviously couldn't happen it's it's actually not a there are certain spark parts that you need spare parts but it's more of a personnel issue we have technical people coming from japan and actually columbia um The latest is, given that, if things do open up, we're hoping to do it in July. That's what we've been discussing with Fuji. But I would put that at a coin toss because July does seem close, and so the other date that we're talking about is November. The reality is, as soon as things truly open up, and technicians can fly. We'll try to schedule it, but it's going to be hard to really give anybody guidance on that at this point. All we can do is, I think once we have confirmed when it's going to be, we will in some form communicate that with the market just because that does naturally have a negative impact on that quarter. So we'll try to make sure that the market knows when that's going to happen. but this is something that we can easily wait. There's no urgency to do that right now, so it is something that can be postponed for a period of time. I want to mention El Carmen. As people know, it was February 25th. We had an incident. It's been out of service since then. El Carmen is the 8-megawatt plant in Peru. We had originally... targeted call it end of sometime in may to have it back in service that is now looking like early july um there's just certain impacts of the the lockdown in peru that um we cannot avoid uh for instance there's people were set to go to site there's there's different again different technical people that need to go um but now the rule is that they need that they can go but they need to be quarantined for a period of sort of 8 to 14 days so there's just certain things we can't avoid. So that's looking more like early July now to be back in service. Uh, we did get, um, the, the proposal from the insurance adjuster for an initial advance of $550,000, which is some combination of insurance or cost the repairs, but also for lost revenue. So at least contractually we are covered for both of those. Um, and, uh, it's looking okay on that front so far, and we'll hope to provide more updates on how that ends up, not just getting a service, but obviously how the insurance comes in in terms of that coverage, which is obviously very important. In terms of the Peru contribution, it was around $1.5 million in terms of EBITDA for the quarter. It would have been, call it, based on how O'Connell was producing up until that point it probably would have been more like 1.75 for the quarter and in terms of it is early given that it's only been a quarter really that Q1 normally would be a good quarter relative in terms of the rainy season versus the dry season so typically and now I'm talking calendar so Q1 and Q4 would normally be the best quarters. Q2 less, and then Q3 is normally your low quarters. That's the dry season. I would say that we would be... Our availability, because Ocho de Augusto, which is a 20-megawatt plant, was put into operation literally December 25th, so it just started... And our availability for the quarter was around 82%. And normally it should be sort of mid to high 90s once you've kind of worked out all the teething issues. So I would say that the quarter, assuming you're back at, call it, or once you get to, which we seem to be now in terms of, you know, April was 95% availability in terms of the plant operation. So I would say Q1 was... It's probably representative of a year in the sense that those teething issues kind of offset the fact that it was the rainy season. So they sort of balance out. Now Q2, given that El Carmen is not going to be in operation now until Q3, that will be... negatively impacted and it's probably going to be in the 500,000 range, 500,750 for the quarter based on El Carmen being out of service for the whole quarter. So that's sort of the operational comment. I think the main sort of where we are as a business comment is that other than the El Carmen, I'd say the other three plants have been operating quite well. We've maintained very good production. We have taken measures to ensure operations given that we are an essential service and it's very important that we keep running. So that's been very good and we continue to have measures in place to ensure the safety of the operators and the continuity of the operations. In terms of growing the business and moving forward, I would say that there's for sure delays because there are things we can do in terms of analyzing even legal documentation that we have already been working on. So you can do a lot of that remotely, but it for sure delays it somewhat. And it's hard to comment exactly when, but we do want to see at least travel restrictions start to lighten up. to be able to, what I would call, truly execute. We can move the pipeline forward and continue to get that pipeline moving, but in terms of executing on it, it's going to be somewhat delayed, so it's hard to comment specifically as to what that means until we see how the world opens up here. But what I would say is I think the net is it's likely going to be a bit slower, but the niche that we're looking in, I think the economic... opportunity is going to be better given the shakeout of all this. So the opportunities we're looking at typically are looking for capital, looking for partners, and I think that's going to just get harder here. So I think we are positioned quite well to take advantage of that in the next, call it three to six to nine months. So that's it for my comments, so we can open up for questions now.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone handset. We'll pause briefly to compile the Q&A roster. And again, that is star 1 to ask a question. Our first question comes from David Quesada from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

speaker
David Quesada
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. My first question here, just a quick clarification, actually. The 500K to 750K you mentioned, was that the effect of El Carmen not running during the quarter? Yeah. For 2Q? Yeah.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Okay. So it was just to clarify that. was that in Q1, we had it for basically up until Feb 25th.

speaker
David Quesada
Analyst, Raymond James

Right.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

So it depends on what you're comparing it to, but for Q1, we kind of lost about $250 to $275 in revenue call it already.

speaker
David Quesada
Analyst, Raymond James

Okay. Okay, got it. And then sticking with El Carmen, maybe just, is there any more detail you can provide on where the repairs are? Like when you get

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

technicians back on site in july is is there you know a fair amount of wood still to chop there or is that are you pretty close to being complete no we're i mean because it happened sort of end of february the first part was literally clean up got done and then because what happened is we had literally water and mud get into the the turbine house we had to open up um you know, the generator, the turbines, the electrical equipment, the monitoring equipment, et cetera, and basically dry it out. And then you clean it, and then you've got to run tests, et cetera. So we've done everything up until we actually have done tests on the generators. They're fine. Same with the turbine. So everything on that part, like the cleanup was probably, in terms of time, that's long because it's just, opening things up and making sure they dry out before you can start running diagnostics on it. So that part is basically all done. And now it's sort of what I would call the... There are some small civil works to repair the site, both on the hill, just some cleanup there, and actually replacing the valve that was ruptured. So... and we're actually just moving it like literally a meter and a half, but that needs technical people. So that we don't see is really a lot of time, and so I don't think the risk to that is big in terms of it's not a lot of time to do that. We just got to get people there.

speaker
David Quesada
Analyst, Raymond James

Right. Okay, great. That's helpful. And then maybe just at San Jacinto, since you're delaying the maintenance, I know we've talked in the past about some of the lower CapEx items that you could do there. Is there any chance that you could bundle those? Are you still considering some of those items or maybe putting those on hold considering you can't even get people to the site just yet?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, those are all – it's on hold for sure. So it's – our actual – Actually, I didn't even look. I apologize for this number, but I don't know what our CapEx number was for Q1 at San Jacinto, but it would be very close to zero, like in the hundreds of thousands. So probably $250,000 to $300,000. And I think we'll keep it. There's not much else we can do. Okay, great. That's fair enough.

speaker
David Quesada
Analyst, Raymond James

And then just maybe one last one for me. If you do see that maintenance extend out to November, I appreciate that you mentioned that it's something that can easily be deferred. Will you see a little bit of an impact on capacity or the net generation that you expect there the longer it runs? Any thoughts there?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

You mean in terms of before then or during?

speaker
David Quesada
Analyst, Raymond James

I guess I mean as you lead up to it, would you expect the facility to not run as efficiently because you still need to do the maintenance?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

No, I think it's a good question because what we did do is that there was one piece of maintenance that we do. There are certain things that you try to time it, right? So that aren't necessarily the turbine maintenance, but there's other maintenance that requires you to shut down parts or one of the turbines. And so one thing that was cleaning out the condensing units on one of the two units, we did do that about three weeks ago because that was the one component that we didn't want to wait because that does affect our, basically, efficiency of converting steam to megawatts. And the concern was that that could worsen. And so that was, call it a 24-hour shutdown of one of the turbines in Q2. But that's the only one. Okay, perfect. That's the only one that we see.

speaker
David Quesada
Analyst, Raymond James

Great. Thanks for that, Mark. I'll get back in the queue.

speaker
Operator

Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from Mack Whale from Cormark. Your line is open.

speaker
Mack Whale
Analyst, Cormark

Hi. I think my question has been answered, but I was wondering, Mark, if you could With delays on development, do you see any change? Does it impact your development costs of those projects at all? Do you end up spending materially more because things are sort of six months delayed as you're doing that work? So you might be able to get the work done, you still see the opportunities, but the delay actually makes everything a little bit more expensive. Is that possible?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

I'd say absolutely possible. So, for instance, the key one we're looking at, we've been working with, call it the partner there, this is called the partner, to do a full assessment of that, exactly that issue. I see one of the big risks being, because we're seeing it at El Carmen, there's two key things. You have local providers of both services and parts, but that's never 100% of one of these projects, so you need international providers of services or parts. Parts seem to be okay in terms of cargoes moving, for sure. Maybe some slight delays, but we're not really seeing much there. It's really the people, whether it's a turbine technician, a generator technician. Even the penstock, the tubing for the penstock, is pretty technical. So that's where, so, you know, we, those conversations are happening as we speak in terms of every one of the areas of a project is, okay, what is, what is that risk? Um, and, um, is there anything we can do or are you just subject to hoping that the, the, the restrictions don't, you know, either stay or get, you know, worse. So I would say that, that we, we are absolutely, um, worried that there is cost overrun risk on these. It's hard to quantify how much. I would say that we're going to do everything we can to understand what the risks are. If we have to err on, let's say, waiting three months versus starting something, we're likely going to wait three months. I think the nice thing is we don't need to rush a project by three months and take the risk. So that's at least the thinking now. There's stuff that we could probably technically start in the next month, but I think we're just going to have to wait and see to make sure that when you mobilize, you feel very comfortable that you've really done the analysis but that things are working.

speaker
Mack Whale
Analyst, Cormark

Right. Okay. Okay. Now, have you changed how perhaps you screen for projects? Let's suppose you're developing some projects, there's some delays, so you can kind of put it off to the side a little bit. Do you then say, well, let's build up a pipeline, let's advance things that are really early stage? Have you started getting to the point where you say, well, you know what, if we expect some delays, let's go and further up the pipeline and get some work done on that? Like, is that... Like, I'm just wondering how you're managing that. Like, because you don't want to get in a situation where you just push everything off. Perhaps there's a way of utilizing that kind of found time, if you will, on the stuff that's not immediate, but yet... Yeah, so... You know what I mean?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, I mean, and that's basically what we're living right now. And I would say... right now it's easy to fill up the top part of the funnel with opportunities. We are doing that. So you absolutely can go through data rooms and even have technical people reviewing designs. We can review numbers. So that is all happening. And even on the ones that are getting ready to start at the bottom of the funnel that you want to execute on, you might delay the real sort of full mobilization a little bit, but you're spending this time sharpening your pencil on how you're going to execute it. So there are things that you can do. So, for instance, one of these ones, it was, okay, well, let's take a look at the designs, spend the, call it the small dollars with an engineering firm. We've made some tweaks. very minor in terms of dollars, but I think some very good improvements in the design. So you're doing that. We've even, the team in Nicaragua is looking at the social program in conjunction with the people on the ground there. And we've made edits to it and we think we've improved it. So you are, you are spending the time, I think, increasing your likelihood of execution at a hundred percent once you mobilize.

speaker
Mack Whale
Analyst, Cormark

Okay. Yeah, I understand what you're saying. Okay. So in some respects, would you think that the net is a positive in a sense? Because I know it seems that there was a lot of things coming your way, and I can imagine when you were looking at them a year ago without having Al Carmen, like the two assets that you guys were responsible for bringing online, those weren't online yet, and you hadn't gone through a ramp-up with your own built assets. I would imagine this actually, you were probably feeling more comfortable with the way you develop this next set of projects, given what you've been through and been forced to sort of slow down, if you will. Is that fair?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, that's very fair. We had in Peru, we did have a timeline, which was a bit of a gun to our head, right? Yeah. And so... we were kind of launching and doing certain designs, redesign on the fly. We're not going to do that this time. Yeah. Right. So, so there is, so I would say the net, it's both the execution, but I do see just, you know, some of the opportunities we have been looking at, I really, that, you know, let's just call it, say the trip is a bit ass spread. I think that's going to close. as well. So just there's the execution, but also I do see opportunities becoming better for us. Right. That might take a couple of months for it to really happen, but I think it is going to happen.

speaker
Mack Whale
Analyst, Cormark

Yeah. I was going to just add that I would imagine your ability then to to argue with someone, if someone you're buying a project off who's less sophisticated or experienced as you are, you can actually now go in and articulate why your offer is the way it is because you know what those risks can be. Like, you know that you can't, there's certain things you just won't know how it'll turn out, but you certainly know it's something to be concerned about. Whereas I think two years ago, you didn't really have that ability to So I'm wondering how you're positioned, you know, you're seeing new opportunities and you probably are feeling more confident in your ability to bring those, like to get the returns you're aiming, because all of this is coming down to the fact that you see a return and the risk is, are we missing something? And is our return actually a lot smaller?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, so I think the ability to get the returns we want, has gone up and is going up. In the long run, those are the bigger positives, I think. The only negative is that we might have to wait three months. Not to actually, for instance, highlight to the market what we're doing, but in terms of when you mobilize, it might take an extra three months than our original plan. But in the long run, I think the returns are going to be more achievable.

speaker
Mack Whale
Analyst, Cormark

Okay. And just lastly on San Jacinto, what's the latest thinking on decline rate there? Any changes at all, or does everything look like the oscillating, I imagine, is still a factor, even though it wasn't as bad this quarter? I'm wondering if you see anything different there at all.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

No, not really. I mean, I think this quarter, q1 was that like again we did about 60 q3 60 q4 62 net i i don't i think that was just because it was almost abnormally low cycling like that was really stable i i think that sort of 60 is probably the good number at least for this year that's what we're seeing very stable general you know it's um uh Yeah, I think that's a reasonable number to look at, and it kind of ties in with the numerical model that was done a year ago now. Okay. It's in agreement with that.

speaker
Mack Whale
Analyst, Cormark

Yeah. Okay, that's all my questions. Thanks, Mark. Thanks, Mark.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. And again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1. Our next question comes from Najee Buduin from Industrial Alliance. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

speaker
Najee Buduin
Analyst, Industrial Alliance

Hi, good morning. Just wondering, you know, as you're working through that pipeline of investment opportunities that you have ahead of you, I'm just wondering if you can quantify, you know, the magnitude of what that looks like, let's say, over the next 12 months. How much of that pipeline would you place in a high probability of execution buckets

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Again, I think of it in terms of sort of a funnel analogy. You know, if there's sort of 20 at the top coming in, 7 to 10 where you're seriously working, and then I'd say there's sort of 3 to 4 that get through that phase that actually we could likely move ahead if we wanted to as opposed to, you know, we're the gating item, not the other side. Um, and that, that would all be in the next 12 months, I would say. And then there's likely one that's, you know, at sort of execution phase right now.

speaker
Najee Buduin
Analyst, Industrial Alliance

And, and is that, uh, you know, maybe just the range would be, would be helpful. Is that a 10, 20, you know, 30 megawatt type of, of, uh, of opportunity?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, I, Given our free cash flow, less our dividend, we do think that there are other non-equity types. Given our overall debt to EBITDA is quite low now for a company like this, we do think that there might be some other financing available. But when you put all that into the mix, you're looking at anywhere from $5 to $25. Sorry, 5 to 30 megawatt type projects, typically, yeah. Because that's sort of the equity requirement that gets spit out, right?

speaker
Najee Buduin
Analyst, Industrial Alliance

Right, okay. So similar type of projects that you would have been looking at before. Maybe just... If we can get your latest thoughts on the Peru development prospects, maybe specifically CARPA, but, you know, happy to also hear about some of the other development assets that, you know, from the UEG acquisition. I know, you know, have you given some thought to maybe potentially monetizing some of these assets if you're not? expecting to develop them anytime soon? Or would you prefer to hold on to them for now and maybe slowly work your way through that portfolio over time?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, I mean, there's not a big cost to holding on to them. So we're more in the let's hold on to them mode. And when the market is there for more auctions, I think it's quite easy for us to be bidding in What you want to do is get them to PPA, and then if you're going to monetize, that's a better time to do it than now, I think. The one specific one would be CARPA. The issue with that one is that the time has just kind of passed on its PPA, so we're in the process of trying to get our bond back, which is $4.75 million, so we are specifically trying to monetize that one. The issue is just the dynamic we see is that those are more greenfield projects, whereas we're seeing later stage opportunities in that funnel I was talking about, which are more sort of either operational or brownfield where capital has been spent that are further along than our greenfield pipeline. So we would prefer to put capital there outside our pipeline, but we think it's just a better risk-reward situation. And then, you know, in maybe two, three, four years, we'll be able to either develop or monetize our own pipeline that we have. But that's, I'd say, a little bit on the back burner right now.

speaker
Najee Buduin
Analyst, Industrial Alliance

Okay, that's helpful. I know it's probably not a major focus today, but just thinking about maybe any refinancing opportunities in the portfolio going forward?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, it's at the front of our mind. It's just, and there's things we're progressing, I'd say, nicely up until March. And then it's just that has to be revisited as soon as we can. But, you know, we do need this to clear up. And then, you know, we think we're going to have in Nicaragua a pretty interesting package for that. and that's what we're working towards. But I think that's a Q4 type thing now because it's going to take some time, not just to kind of get in front of people, but for that market to be opening up again to look at those types of deals.

speaker
Najee Buduin
Analyst, Industrial Alliance

Right. Okay. So still on the table, just a little bit delayed there. Sorry, go ahead.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, no, it's absolutely there in terms of discussions with, call it, internally within Nicaragua and also with, call it, a few financial advisors. But I think that's an end-of-year type thing. And then it would be quite big. If we do that, that would have a big impact for us, but it's just I can't promise sort of how soon that we can really get going on that.

speaker
Najee Buduin
Analyst, Industrial Alliance

Yeah, no, that's helpful. Maybe just a last question on the dividend. I guess now that Peru projects are done, notwithstanding what's going on at Ackerman, has your processor approached to the dividend policy or the payout changed at all?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

No, I think don't forget one thing with the Peru contracts that is unique to Peru is that they have a May 1 to April 30th year for their power sector. Anything before May 1, basically, from your COD to then, so just in your first year, you're earning the full PPA price, but you're only getting paid spot, which is much lower than the PPA price right now. So until basically, and we won't really even get paid the May until, call it first week of July sort of thing, so our actual cash flow situation, and we earn all that back, by the way. We're earning it, and then you get paid sort of in the following 12 months, but Well, it's really not going to be until Q3 that our cash flow position will change. And then I'd say that would be when we're really going to be assessing that as opposed to obviously Q1, but even Q2. We'll assess it. I think the interesting dynamic, though, is I believe that the pipeline of opportunities is going to get better. in the next three to six months. And so that will be the counter. We're going to have more free cash flow, but the counter is we'll likely have more opportunities as well. So that'll be the tension.

speaker
Najee Buduin
Analyst, Industrial Alliance

Right. Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.

speaker
Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Alan Azanson from Greenfire. Your line is open.

speaker
Alan Azanson
Analyst, Greenfire

Yeah. Good morning, Mark and team, and congratulations on an excellent quarter. Just a couple of questions. First, any plans to drill any wells over the next 12 months in Nicaragua?

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

There is no plans. What we're, I would say, slowly coming back around to is that, and we've had conversations with lenders recently, And I wouldn't even say the next 12 months, but maybe the next 24 to 36. To the extent we want to improve production there, we do think, call it a binary unit that's not a fully maximized binary unit, but let's say 7 or 8 megawatts instead of 12. And there's a reason for that. But as I sit here today, I think that would be the next thing. If we were to increase production, any capital spending there, it would be that as opposed to drilling more wells. I think it's lower risk for sure, but also we do think the field has reached sort of a level of stabilization and we'd prefer to go a binary unit if we do anything.

speaker
Alan Azanson
Analyst, Greenfire

Okay. Follow-on question in terms of you've now established a pretty successful track record on developing these smaller projects in-country, yet the market is not giving you any type of multiple as a developer, particularly with the pipeline that you can attract. What plans do you have to try to move that ball alongside some of your other competitors with much less EBITDA and much more pipelines are getting outrageous valuations and I still see ours understuck in a very low range in terms of a multiple.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, so I think the best way is to, one, we can continue to do things within our own free cash flow, and then the other is we are looking to try to either partner with people, strategic or financial, to continue to grow the business outside of the market, which I do think will help the public market. And then if it doesn't, then there are other ways to try to collapse that gap. I don't think from my perspective, we're not at the point of saying, okay, let's crank up the dividend, let's start buying back stock yet. And part of the reason I say that is, you know, before the COVID, you know, we were actually getting traction in the market. And part of that was ESG interest. And I do think that will come back. So, and it also requires me pounding the pavement because, and being in front of people. So I think the combination of that took us from $11 to $17, and I'm hopeful that that will come back. I just need to be in front of people, and I also think we can deliver not just stuff on the pipeline, but call it the market. We need to show the market that we can actually grow the business without coming to the market, and that's what we're going to do.

speaker
Alan Azanson
Analyst, Greenfire

No, that's an excellent answer, Mark. The only thing that I puzzle on is the strategy of kind of reaching for the smaller incremental projects, which significantly adds to your cash flow and minimizes delays and et cetera. I'm just wondering if you partner and reach for a larger one, whether that allows... against the market attention is the best way to phrase it.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Yeah, so I think it does. I think it is, there's just a, there's a limit at, call it $12. And to be clear, we have some very interesting ones that would absolutely be attention getters that are bigger than the ones I've talked about where you would need to either partner or you're having to do some form of, call it less dilutive, preferred share financing and so that is there and so I agree with you in terms of getting the attention I think but I think we'd like to get back to that world of 16, 17, 18 because there are limits in terms of what you can do in terms of going after these opportunities and financing in a way that has absolutely nothing to do with your share price

speaker
Alan Azanson
Analyst, Greenfire

It's not agreed at the current price. I can understand that. Have you looked at the NRCan $750 million fund that the federal government announced? It's specifically to partner with green initiatives. It's not restricted to Canada. They are handing out big checks.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

That one specifically, no.

speaker
Alan Azanson
Analyst, Greenfire

Okay, well, that's great. Again, congratulations on a great quarter, and stay safe, and you seemed excellent.

speaker
Mark Murnaghan
CEO

Likewise. Good talking, Alan. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you, and that concludes the questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to management for closing comments.

speaker
Unknown

No, go ahead. I'm good.

speaker
Anton Jellick
CFO

No, no, I'm good. Yep. Thanks, everyone, for joining today. Stay safe, stay well, and hopefully the world will return to normal sooner than later. Thank you.

speaker
Operator

Thank you for joining us today. This does conclude our call, and you may now disconnect.

Disclaimer

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