Parkland Corporation

Good morning. My name is Lara and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Parkland Q4 Analyst Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by the number two. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Valerie Roberts, Director, Investor Relations for Parkland. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. With me today on the call are Bob Espey, President and CEO, and Marcel Tunison, Chief Financial Officer. This call is webcast and I encourage listeners to follow along with the supporting slides. We will go through a prepared remarks and then open it up for questions with the investment community. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow up as necessary. And if you have any questions, re-enter the queue. We would ask analysts to follow up directly with the Investor Relations team afterwards for any detailed modeling questions. During our call today, we may make forward looking statements related to expected future performance. These statements are based on current views and assumptions that are subject to uncertainties which are difficult to predict. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, expected operating results and industry conditions, among other factors. Risk factors applicable to our business are set out in our annual information form and management's discussion and analysis. We will also be discussing non-GAAP and other financial measures, which do not have any standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS. These measures are identified and defined in Parkland's continuous disclosure documents, which are available on our website or on CDAR. Please refer to these documents as they identify factors which may cause actual results to differ materially from any forward looking statements. Dollar amounts discussed in today's call are expressed in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted. I will now turn the call over to Bob.

Thank you, Val, and good morning everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. I'm excited to share our successes from the past year and our plans going forward. 2023 was an excellent year for Parkland. The entire team did exactly what we said we would do. We advanced our strategy, served our customers, delivered organic growth and captured synergies. Each part of our business contributed to our record year, and this gives me confidence in the quality of our strategy and our ability to deliver the ambitious targets we have set for ourselves. Before I highlight some specific accomplishments, I want to talk about safety, which as you know is a core value at Parkland. Since 2017, we have significantly improved our total recordable injury frequency. However, our progress last year was overshadowed by the tragic loss of one of our team members in a workplace accident. This loss was felt across Parkland and has strengthened our resolve to continuously improve our safety practices and culture so that every employee goes home safely to their family at the end of their day. Let's move to slide three. I would like to start with the highlights from the past year, which demonstrate the way we continue to deliver on our commitments. As a result, our shareholders enjoyed a total return of approximately 50% through 2023. Our financial performance was outstanding. We grew our marketing business by 30% year over year through integration, synergy capture and organic growth. This growth more than offset a year over year reduction in our refinery EBITDA due to the successful completion of a plan turnaround at the Burnaby refinery. Where we have a long term target of less than 20% adjusted EBITDA contribution. We delivered 1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the year, which is nearly $300 million higher than last year and exceeded our initial guidance by 10%. This included $112 million of adjusted EBITDA from our renewables business, which nearly doubled from the prior year. In 2023 we suspended M&A and focused on organic growth and synergies. We invested $200 million of growth capital in conversions and rebrands, expansions of co-processing capacity at the Burnaby refinery, strategic supply infrastructure and our Journey Rewards program, including our partnership with Aeroplan. The remaining capex was for maintenance, which included the plan turnaround at the refinery. Through these investments, we expanded our on the run brand to more than 700 stores, grew our Journey Rewards loyalty program to nearly 6 million members and have seen significant organic growth. In our international and Canada segments. Operationally, we have streamlined processes that have resulted in increased efficiency and cost savings. We are seeing the benefits in the turnaround of our US business. In 2023, we clearly demonstrated the cash generation of the business. We have reduced our leverage ratio to 2.8 times, which is now well within our target range. We also increased our dividend and repurchased $26 million of common shares for cancellation in Q4. The success is a testament to the dedication of the Parkland team. And again, I want to express gratitude for their exceptional work. They are instrumental in delivering these results. With that, I will hand it over to Marcel to discuss our Q4 highlights on slide

four. Thank you, Bob. And good morning, everyone. Parkland had a great fourth quarter and delivered a -de-bidet of $463 million. Canada delivered a -de-bidet of $190 million, which was consistent with last year. Pure unit margins were driven higher by our supply and logistics capabilities, as well as favorable market conditions. We also saw the benefits of our Husky and Cravié acquisition completed in 2022 come through. These positive drivers were offset by reduced demand in our commercial business due to unseasonably warm weather in Q4 and higher operating expenses. Our operational KPIs show the benefit of consistent execution and organic growth investments. Company-owned same-store fuel volumes were up nearly 7% in the quarter, driven by our Journey Rewards Program, which continues to attract customers to the forecourt and into our convenience stores. Food and convenience companies' same-store sales growth, excluding cigarettes, was 1.2%, and we delivered growth margins of 36%. Convenience alone was up 4%, reflecting the impact of strong central store and packaged beverage sales. We did see some weakness in our M&M food market channel, reflecting customers being cautious with discretionary spend. We are adjusting our offers accordingly. Our international segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $157 million in Q4. This is up 43% from last year. We delivered organic growth with higher volumes in our commercial business and strong fuel unit margins. We also captured synergies from our Jamaica acquisition and our supply advantage. We are positioned to win in fast growing markets like Guyana and Suriname and continue to win contracts in the utility space. This further diversifies our international business and is creating more rateable quarterly results, which we saw in 2023. Our USA segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $39 million in the quarter. This is down 15% from last year. Across the US, industry retail fuel volumes were down, and we saw this reflected in negative company same-store volume growth. In Florida, we did not adjust our pricing fast enough in a dynamic environment, and as a result, we lost some market share. We have fixed this and our volumes are back in line with industry trends. These impacts were partly offset by organic initiatives that drove higher convenience store margin, better than industry same-store sales growth, and lower operating expenses. Commercial fuel unit margins were also lower due to unfavorable market conditions. We experienced some one-time impacts in the US during the year that do not reflect underlying performance and believe the business now has a solid foundation to grow. We are confident in the future of our USA segment, and in 2024 we expect to deliver between -$250 million of adjusted EBITDA. Our refining segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $106 million, which is down $22 million from last year. Composite utilization was 90% during the quarter compared to 98% the prior year, which was caused primarily by a third-party power outage. Crack spreads also normalized during the quarter. In the first quarter of 2024, the Burnaby refinery was temporarily shut down following a period of extremely cold weather. We expect to resume normal operations early March. During the expected downtime of approximately eight weeks, we have been able to complete repairs and previously planned maintenance activities, which will allow us to recover some lost utilization and improve our capture of refining cracks going forward. I would like to thank the refinery team for their continued commitment to safely executing the work. We have developed a robust recovery plan and still expect to meet our 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $2.05 billion, despite the impacts of the refinery outage. In 2023, Parkland delivered cash flow from operating activities of $1.8 billion, up more than 30% from 2022, and available cash flow was $812 million, or $4.60 per share. We used these funds to grow the business, as well as repay nearly $750 million of debt on our credit facility in 2023, and this lowered our leverage ratio to 2.8 times. We also bought back more than 580,000 shares in November and December. And with that, let's turn to slide five. This slide is a reminder of our longer term ambitions that we presented at our investor day in November. We expect to grow adjusted EBITDA to $2.5 billion by 2028, driven mainly by organic growth initiatives, cost efficiencies, and some additional synergy capture from past acquisitions. We see the potential to grow adjusted EBITDA up to $3 billion by 2028 through acquisitions, but that is subject to any deals being accretive relative to the alternative. We also expect to grow our available cash flow per share by almost $4 to $8.50 per share by 2028. In this period, we expect to generate about $6 billion of cash flow that is available for shareholder distributions, reducing leverage and growth. As we shared previously, we intend to allocate about $1.5 billion to dividends and firm share buybacks. This allows for continued annual dividend increases, as we have now done for the past 12 years. We also expect to invest around $1.5 billion or $300 million per year in organic growth. As we have grown the Parkland platform in the past few years, we see many opportunities to invest in our own business with at least a 15% expected return. And finally, we have about $3 billion available cash remaining. We will prioritize reducing our leverage to the low end of our target range by 2025. This leaves the rest for inorganic growth and or additional share buybacks. We will allocate this to the highest value opportunity and focus on driving shareholder value. And with that, I will hand it over to Bob to discuss slide six.

Thank you, Marcel. I am confident that we can deliver those targets with the growth platform we have built. Parkland is a much larger company today. We have significantly increased our scale through strategic investments made in our customer offerings and supply network. The Parkland strategy aims to continue building upon our customer advantage and leverage our supply advantage. These two pillars reinforce each other and provide opportunities to further grow and increase returns. Our customer advantage is built on the value we provide to our retail and commercial customers. We gain their loyalty through our proprietary brands, differentiated offer, extensive network, competitive pricing, reliable service and loyalty programs. These programs have been our consistent focus for years and we are starting to see the benefit of the team's hard work. Our supply advantage aims to achieve the lowest cost to serve through proprietary logistics assets, industry leading capabilities and significant scale. This allows Parkland to generate industry leading margins and deliver value to both customers and shareholders. These two advantages complement each other and drive synergies. As we create more loyal customers, increase demand for our products. We increase our supply advantage with greater volumes and scale. In turn, we can attract more customers and continue to grow. This strategy is underpinned by the values, integrity and dedication of the One Parkland team. I have every confidence that they are going to deliver the ambitious targets we have set. In conclusion, I want to thank the Parkland team for our success over the past year. Together, we've achieved remarkable results and I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead. Let's continue to work collaboratively and build on our successes in the coming quarters and years.

With

that, I'll turn it

back to the operator for questions.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin

the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touchstone phone. You will hear a three tone prompt acknowledging your request. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the number two. A reminder that we request our analysts to limit yourselves to one question and one follow up and rejoin the queue for the remaining questions you might have. If you're using a speakerphone, please lift your hands up before pressing any keys. Our first question comes from the line of Luke Hannon from Canaccord Tenuity. Please go ahead.

Thanks and good morning, everyone. I wanted to start on, if we can, on the refinery recovery plan. Bob, can you describe maybe in just a little bit more detail to the extent that you can, what the core elements of are this plan, I think, already correctly, and that there should be some catch up when it comes to the utilization as a result of the work that you've done there, but maybe just a little bit more detail on what the core pillars are of that plan.

Yeah, good morning, Luke, and thanks for the question. You know, as you indicated, we are bringing the refinery back up. It'll be next week, and we will start to bring it back online, which leaves us with about an eight week shortfall. You know, I would say a few things. You know, one is we had a minor shutdown plan for this period. So from, it was taken into account in our budget, part of the slowdown. The second thing was on the recovery side, we've been able to pull forward some work that we plan to do later in the year, which allows us to continue to run the refinery at higher rates, but also kind of the same as the last year. We've come out at a higher utilization than we had planned once we're back up and running so we can make some up there. And then, you know, finally, we expect to be in a constructive crack environment when we bring the facility back up. Some of the other things on the optimization side, we're seeing a good market right now for carbon credits, particularly the Canadian carbon credits, which will allow us to monetize those as well on the bio blending and imports. Again, it's quite a constructive environment where we can make up certainly a big portion of the, you know, of the unplanned shutdown. And I would say that the team's working hard to get it back online here and they're making sure that they're prioritizing safety before they put the machine, put the refinery back online.

Okay, thank you. And then for my follow up here, I wanted to ask about the share repurchases. It was noted that you had done some in Q4 and it seems like you accelerated a little bit further in Q1 so far. So I'm just curious how we should be thinking about one, maybe further share repurchases or accelerated share repurchases in the near term here. And then maybe also if I can squeeze another one in here, how that speaks to your overall near term thinking on capital allocation, specifically M&A and balancing that with share buybacks in the near term.

Thanks. I'll ask Marcel to... Yeah, good morning,

Luke. So yes, we have so share buybacks we did some November, December, we've continued to do that actively in the first quarter. Our NCIB is active at the moment and those share buybacks fit within the overall capital allocation framework that we laid out an invest today. And I summarized a bit earlier here as well. So that's how it fits in there. I think our focus continues to be to bring leverage down, which we have now done within the range and will continue to do so. And then the allocation of the cash flow, which we have available, it's really how we look at M&A opportunities, both from a strategic and value kind of fit relative to kind of the value of buying back the shares and we'll continue to do that. But we continue to be active with the RNCIB

program. Okay, thank you very much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Royale from JP Morgan. Go ahead, please.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is on the 24 guide. You've reiterated confidence in the 2 billion, despite the eight week refinery outage. Was there a contingency built in to the guide or do you think other parts of the business could make up for the loss? And I think Bob mentioned that you expect to come back into a better crack environment. Do we need better cracks that weren't in the plans or that you're running to maintain that number, just kind of trying to bridge to that 2 billion despite the outage?

So, good morning, John. And no, we don't actually need higher cracks to make the plan. Again, through, we had planned to have a slowdown during this eight week period anyways. So the cash flow that we did predicted in Q1 was less than what's already taken into account in the plan. And then other items like optimization, particularly around renewables and carbon credits is incremental to the plan, as well as a higher utilization rate for the balance of the year. So those are the key items that allow us to have confidence in our guidance for the year. And so we're on track for being within the range that we had indicated 1950 to 2050.

Okay, thank you. And then my second question is on the Canada business. Can you speak a little bit about what's going right in Canada on the same store side, the same store gallon side? You've consistently, you know, throughout 2023 been doing kind of mid to high single digits there. I know you call that journey, but any other driver? Yeah, you know, weather impacts. Go ahead.

Yeah, you know, look, we have been well above industry. And, you know, our market share data would show that we've been increasing our market share. I would say the primary driver is the journey rewards and that, you know, as we've indicated in the past, getting scale. And, you know, the other thing is we've been doing a lot of work on our backcourt, which is pulling people in as well. We're seeing that trend well from an industry perspective, but also it has an offsetting benefit of selling more fuel. So, you know, I would say those are the two key

drivers that we're seeing. Thank

you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ben Isakson from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much and good morning, everyone. Bob, you're in 2023, you improved your leverage. You focus on synergy capture, organic growth. The stock did very, very well. Can you talk about what is the plan in 2024? What should we be looking for to get the stock to the next level?

You know, look, I think we've laid that out in our investor day. And again, you know, the focus that we'll see this year is again continued organic growth. The US business continuing to come on, you know, particularly through integration. We've guided that to 240 for the year. So some nice growth in that segment. And our international business, you know, continuing to perform. The team did well over the last couple of years and, you know, would expect to maintain within that business. You know, I would say on the balance sheet side, we'll continue to see increased strength in our balance sheet. And, you know, that gives us the optionality to continue to buy back shares, you know, as Marcel had chatted about and deliver at the same time.

Thank you for that. And then just as a follow up, not to belabor the recovery plan at the refinery. Is it fair to say that Lost Diva does probably somewhere in that kind of 75 to 100 million dollar area? And if so, what I'm interested in is the the MG&A cost reduction that you're focused on. It seems like that's something that could be sustainable. Can you just kind of quantify that or to the best that you can?

Yeah, so look, I think your estimate on the low end is, you know, an accurate estimate. And again, you know, look, there are a number, there are many things that will help us make that up. But the primary one is being able to come out stronger. You know, as I had indicated, we pulled forward some maintenance activities that we plan for later in the year, which would have had been a headwind on utilization. So we don't need to do that. Plus, we've been able to make some improvements, just allow us to run the refinery harder. So, you know, and then along with, you know, like I said, some of the other activities. Yeah, I mean, those are the primary things that we're doing here to make sure that we're back on track.

And then maybe just then on your MG&A comment, right, as you recall, we initiated some of that work in the middle of last year. And of course, then in 2024, we will have the full year benefit, plus some additional benefits that took a little bit longer, just with a bit longer runway. So the answer is yes, there's more. It's sustainable and there's more to go on the on the MG&A side. And that also will make up a little bit of the shortfall here with the refinery.

That's helpful. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Van Ells from TD Cowan. Go ahead, please.

Good morning. I just wanted to touch on the US business. So the quarter, 39 million of epitaphs in the quarter, and that was boosted quite a bit by a strong lubricants business. So can you talk about the sustainability of the 80% increase in the lubricants? And then on the flip side to that, it means the commercial business must have been quite weak. So how do you bridge the gap between what your kind of normalized run rate might have been in the fourth quarter to that 60 million dollar average or so that you're looking at for per quarter in the US for 2024?

Yeah, so look, I would say the lubricants business is quite small. So it might be worth connecting with Val, just to clarify that. I don't think that was a key driver performance in the quarter. You know, we talked about a couple of one time items. You know, one is on our pricing system. So as you're aware, we've been doing a lot of work on that business. One of the initiatives was to roll out our pricing system. And we had some issues with that in our Florida rock, where it wasn't as responsive as we would have liked. And we have some bad information. We're out of market for for a period there that's since been fixed. You know, I would say when you peel that out, you know, our data would show that we tracked at industry throughout the rest of the business. So indicating that we don't have any structural issues in the business. You know, that's one item. And then the second item is, you know, as as the team there continues to dig in and make improvements, we're seeing an increase in the run rate, which brings us back to that 240

for the year 60, roughly 60 quarter. Okay, and then

and

then on the commercial

and wholesale business, if I might just be, you know, obviously, very strong growth. Are there any headwinds that you're seeing, whether it be ocean freight or anything else that that might cause that to slow down considerably going forward, or should we expect some reasonable growth in the international continuum?

You know, look, I think the international business, we saw a lot of growth last year, so I wouldn't expect that ton of growth in that business this year. And we did have constructive commodity markets that helped that business last year. You know, I would say the businesses and, you know, to your point, there are some headwinds around shipping costs. I mean, generally, those costs can be transferred into the market because everybody has the same cost structure. And so, you know, I would say that business is on track for a year that, you know, was a strong last year.

Yeah, and then maybe Mike, just to add to what Bob said, like we talked about, you know, continued growth in the Guyana, you know, the Guyana market with all the offshore work that's happening, we start seeing the first bits of that, a similar kind of event happening in Suriname. So those are kind of good commercial contracts. And one of the things we've added over the last few years are sales to utilities, which are more rateable during the year than like what we perhaps have seen in the past. And you see that come

through

in international as well with strong Q2 and Q3, in addition to the usual season of Q4 and Q1. So more rateability going forward in international, what we saw in a few years back to the addition of more commercial, more kind of all year round business as well

as kind of utility contracts that we have on. Thank

you. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta from the Golden Saks. Go ahead, please.

Yeah, good morning, team. The first question I have is just around that as you bring back Burnaby, your perspective on

the crude markets. Neil, you cut out on us. Is it on the

line? As you're hearing no response, I will go ahead and move

forward to the next question. Our next question comes from the line of Luke Davis

from RBC. Go ahead, please.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Just seeing a headline here

suggesting that you guys have put up 157 Canadian sea stores to be divested through NCR Realtor. Just wondering if you can speak to some of the details there, what the key drivers were, how that relates to your private or your previous story, divested share target, and if you can just speak to kind of the quality of the station's locations, all that sort of stuff.

Yeah, this is consistent with the priorities we laid out in our divestiture program. We've talked about high value retail sites, which we've made good progress on. We've talked about our various aspects of our commercial business. And then the third one was around low productivity sites. So these are sites that don't quite fit where we're pushing our brands, but still are good sites. So in most cases, these will be sold to partners, dealers that will own the business and continue to sell branded product through them. So we're just changing the operating model of those businesses and allowing us to pull some of the capital out. And it's all part of our 500 million divestiture program, which we committed to by

the end of 2025 and we're making good progress.

Gotcha.

And would that be incremental to the 325 that are already in process? That is included in the 325. Okay, great. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes

from the line as Steve Hansen from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good work guys. Thanks for the time. Marcel, I think you referenced the M&M offering was a little slower in the period. Just curious if that weakness extended across the rest of the food offering at all and what type of adjustments you are implementing to account for that demand shift at all.

Yeah, so M&M was off the frozen food segment. You know, we did see some pressure on consumers, which was consistent with other food retailers. You know, I would say on our fresh food offer, we continue to make good progress in terms of rolling out frozen within our convenience store network. And again, we won't see the benefits of that because really we just completed the rollout at the tail end of the year. And then secondly on our fresh offers, which were in market in three locations. So again, you know, those are on track. We have M&M, you know, certainly has been adjusting its volume margin just to make sure that we're continuing to be able to

meet the needs for customers.

Okay, great. That's helpful. And just to follow up, I see that cruise bookings continue to hit new records. This is perhaps a bit of a naive question, but how much visibility do you get into that those types of customer demands in the Caribbean as you look at sort of staging fuel supply and that kind of thing in the future? Do you get a good read into those customer bookings and what kind of demand do you expect through the balance of the year?

Yeah, yeah, no, we do see we do continue to see robust demand in those markets. And we do monitor customer bookings, which remain robust throughout the region.

Okay, very helpful. Thank

you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Go ahead, Trish.

All right, can you guys hear me? Yeah,

yes, Neil. Okay,

sorry about that. First question is just on the crude markets. There's been a lot of volatility in Western Canada as you bring Burnaby online. You know, do you see commercial opportunities around this? And then just your thoughts on what TMX means for both crude and product markets for Western Canada?

Yeah, no, they're good questions. I mean, look, you know, we're not sensitive really to the price of crude. It's the spreads and spreads remain constructive, particularly to the light crews, which we use in the Burnaby refinery. So we've seen that environment stay consistent. And don't expect it to change here going forward. TMX, you know, interesting, mainly bringing heavy capacity online. And, you know, our analysis would show that it'll have little to no impact on the light spread. So we don't expect to see a significant impact there. And, you know, on the product side, I mean, Vancouver is currently supplied by Burnaby or primarily out of Edmonton. And so that product's already in the markets. We don't expect that to create any changes in terms of the product supply and availability in that market.

And Neil, we are active shippers on the pipeline. And of course, with our own crude being there, there's always opportunities to optimize as the markets move. And that's an active program that's ongoing. And so when Bob earlier referred to kind of higher capture, part of that higher capture comes from optimizing those positions that we have, you know, in the market. And so generally, volatility is good.

Yeah, and both did you get talked about this, you've made a lot of progress around the leveraging and part of that's been the asset sale market. So I just love your perspective on, you know, is there room for further asset monetization? And as we think about M&A, is it fair to say that, you know, Parkland at this point is digesting a lot of the M&A that is done as opposed to being active in the acquisition market this year? Thank you.

Yeah, so our deleveraging has primarily come from cash flow from the enterprise. So it hasn't been materially boosted by that vestiges at this point. We'll see that more in 2024 and 2025 as we continue to work through the pipeline of opportunities. And we have M&A look, we're still in a mode here where we're integrating. And you know, as we talked about in our investor day, you know, our investor day is a little bit more of a -on-one approach. So our first priority right now was to get the benefits we can internally out of the business focusing on organic growth and synergy capture of which, you know, there's still opportunity and it's a core part of our plan to grow the business from 2 to 2.5 billion EBITDA without

M&A. Thanks, Bob.

Thank you.

This concludes our question and answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a lovely day.