Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Q4 2025 results digital conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the call over to Dan Tucanel, Vice President of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Jade. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pemina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the fourth quarter of 2025. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and CEO, and Cameron Goldate, Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pemina's leadership team. I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pemina's current expectations, estimates, judgments, and projections. forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see the company's management discussion and analysis, dated February 26, 2026, for the period ended December 31, 2025. as well as the press release Pam and I issued yesterday, which are all available online at pamina.com and on both CDAR Plus and EDGAR. I will now turn things over to Scott.

Thanks, Dan. Yesterday, we reported our fourth quarter results, which included earnings of $489 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.075 billion, and adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $731 million, or $1.26 per share. For the full year, we delivered earnings of $1.694 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion. We achieved record annual volumes across our pipelines and facilities divisions, which represented a 3% increase over 2024. Full year results also included adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $2.854 billion or $4.91 per share. Each year, I'm always proud to look back and reflect on our team's many accomplishments. 2025 was no exception. In addition to solid financial and operating results, we also advanced strategic projects and strengthened our long-term competitive positioning. I am particularly proud that Pemina continues to deliver on its promises, including providing safe and reliable operations, meeting its financial targets, constructing major projects on time and on budget, and continuing to execute its strategy within a prudent risk profile. Several notable achievements in 2025 and early 2026 stand out. Safety is a core value in the foundation of Pemina's operations and culture. While the journey never ends, I am pleased with our strong safety and environmental performance that exceeded our internal 2025 targets, highlighted by improved performance across key indicators relative to our three-year averages. We advanced construction of several growth projects, including the RFS4 propane plus fractionator at the Redwater Complex, the Wapiti natural gas processing expansion, and the K3 cogeneration facilities. All three projects are trending on time and on or under budget. The Wapiti expansion and K3 Cogen are currently in the commissioning phase and are expected to be in service in the next few weeks, and we look forward to the RFS4 expansion coming online during the second quarter. Additionally, under previously announced funding agreements, PGI, in collaboration with certain producer customers, expects to place approximately $725 million of new infrastructure into service throughout 2026. PGI, in collaboration with certain producer customers, expect at least $725 million of new infrastructure into service throughout 2026, all supported by long-term take-or-pay agreements. We supported our long-term resilience through extensive re-contracting across the business. These contracting successes support continued utilization of our assets, help ensure our stable cash flow stream, and create the foundation for future opportunities. In 2025, we renewed existing contracts and executed incremental new contracts totaling over 200,000 barrels per day of conventional pipeline transportation capacity. This includes successfully recontracting substantially all available for renewal on the Peace Pipeline system under contracts expiring in 2025 and 2026. We look forward to providing further contracting updates throughout 2026. As part of the toll review at Alliance Pipeline, we significantly extended Alliance's long-term contractual profile as shippers elected a new 10-year toll option on approximately 96% of available capacity. And we contracted the remaining capacity available on the 100,000 barrel per day Nipissi Pipeline, which was reactivated in 2023 to serve the growing clear water heavy oil play. Having fully contracted NIPC, we are now focused on opportunities to increase egress capacity to respond to strong customer demand for incremental services. In response to growing demand for condensate and NGL transportation, we progressed development of conventional pipeline expansions to reliably and cost-effectively meet rising transportation demands from growing production in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin. In late 2025, PEMIN announced that it is proceeding with its Fox Creek to the Mayo expansion of the Peace Pipeline system, which will add approximately 70,000 barrels per day of market delivery capacity to the Peace Pipeline system. And yesterday, we announced two additional expansions of our Northeast BC pipelines, the Birch to Taylor expansion and the Taylor to Gordondale expansion. In total, these three expansions represent $625 million of investment to ensure Pemina's continued ability to serve as growing volumes in Northeast British Columbia and Alberta. We took steps to significantly enhance our propane export capabilities through a new 30,000 barrel per day LPG export agreement with Ulta Gas at its West Coast terminals and the sanctioning of the Prince Rupert Terminal Optimization Project. Through these two initiatives, Pemina ensured access to 50,000 barrels per day of highly competitive propane export capacity to premium price markets, including Asia, for Pemina and our customers' propane. On the Cedar LNG project, we advanced construction of a floating LNG vessel to over 35% complete and significantly progress the onshore construction activities. Further, Pemina met its commitment to investors by completing the remarketing of our 1.5 million tons of annual Cedar LNG capacity by signing long-term agreements with Petronas, a global LNG industry leader, and Oventa, one of the largest liquids-rich natural gas producers in Canada. In addition to increasing Pemina's expected financial contribution from the project, these agreements further validate this heater LNG project and highlight the strong demand for global export capacity, given the clear advantages of Canadian West Coast LNG, including competitively priced feedstock and advantage shipping distance to Asian markets. Finally, Pemina and its partner, Kineticor, made significant progress in the development of the Greenlight Electricity Center, securing the required power grid allocation for the proposed third-party innovation center, which was subsequently assigned to a potential customer of Greenlight and completed a land sale agreement with the customer. We also ensured the availability and delivery timing of two turbines to support the approximately 900 megawatt first phase of Greenlight. Greenlight represents an extension of Pemina's existing value chain and an opportunity to enhance growth by investing in long-term contracted infrastructure with an investment-grade counterparty while diversifying its customer base and would create incremental demand for natural gas and associated liquids production within Western Canada. Pemina and Kineticorps continue to progress various work streams, including finalizing a commercial agreement with the customer, engineering, procurement, and regulatory activities, and expect to make a final investment decision in the first half of 2026. It was a busy and productive year for the Pemina team, and I look forward to building upon our momentum from 2025 as we strive for even greater success in 2026. We are planning to hold a webcast and conference call on April 7th, where Pemina's officer team will provide a general business update and long-term outlook. Additional details will be communicated in the coming weeks. I will now turn things over to Cam to discuss in more detail the financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full year.

Thanks, Scott. As Scott noted, Pemina reported fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.075 billion. This was a $179 million or 14% decrease over the same period in the prior year, which primarily reflects a $118 million lower contribution from marketing and new ventures, the impact of a new total structure and revenue sharing mechanism on the Alliance pipeline, and a $37 million period specific capital recovery that impacted 2024 with no similar impact in 2025. These factors were partially offset by volume growth and solid performance across the pipelines and facilities divisions. Looking at quarter over quarter results by division, the major factors impacting the quarter end pipelines included higher volumes on the peace pipeline system, lower operating expense on the Cochin pipeline, lower revenue on the Canadian portion of the Alliance pipeline as a result of reduced long term firm tolls and impacts from the new revenue sharing mechanism under previously announced settlement, offset by higher demand on seasonal contracts, lower revenue on certain pipeline assets due to period-specific impacts of capital recoveries, recognized in the fourth quarter of 2024, and lower interruptible volumes on the quotient pipeline due to narrower condensate price differentials. In facilities, Factors impacting the fourth quarter included lower revenue related to period-specific impacts of capital recoveries recognized in the fourth quarter of 2024 on certain PGI assets and higher operating expenses, as well as higher contribution for PGI assets, primarily due to higher volumes and the impact of the acquisition of a 50% working interest in Whitecap's KBOB complex during the fourth quarter of 2024. In marketing and new ventures, fourth quarter results reflected the net impact of narrower NGL frac spreads, partially offset by realized gains on NGL-based derivatives, and lower realized gains on crude oil-based derivatives to do lower volumes and narrower price spreads. Finally, in the corporate segment, fourth quarter results were lower than prior period due to higher long-term incentive costs, partially offset by lower non-compensation-related expenses. Earnings in the fourth quarter were $489 million. This represents a 15% decrease over the same period in the prior year. In addition to the factors impacting adjusted EBITDA, the decrease in earnings in the fourth quarter was primarily due to the net impact of higher depreciation and amortization expense in pipelines, lower other expenses recognized in the share of profit from PGI as 2024 included costs related to asset disposals, Higher share of profit from Greenlight due to a gain on sale of land to a third-party potential customer and various unrealized gains and losses on derivatives. A gain recognized by Pemina on a sale of land to a third-party potential customer of Greenlight combined with lower net finance costs and lower acquisition and integration costs offset by higher restructuring costs. And finally, lower income tax expense. Total volumes in the pipelines and facilities divisions were 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter. This represents an increase of 1% over the same period in the prior year. Higher fourth quarter pipelines volumes were driven primarily by higher interruptible and contracted volumes on the peace pipeline system, an increase in volumes on eggs as the fourth quarter in 2024 was impacted by third-party outages, an increase in contracted volumes on the Nipissi pipeline, lower interruptible volumes on the Cochin pipeline due to narrower condensate price differentials, and the sale of the north segment of the western pipeline in the third quarter of 2025. Higher fourth quarter facilities volumes were driven primarily by the acquisition of Whitecaps KBOB complex in the fourth quarter of 2024, higher volumes at the Dawson assets due to higher natural gas prices, higher volumes at the Duvernay complex, and a decrease in oxable volumes due to lower ethane extraction. The fourth quarter contributed to solid full-year results that included earnings of $1.694 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion, cash flow from operating activities of $3.301 billion, or $5.68 per share, and adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $2.854 billion, or $4.91 per share. During the fourth quarter, Pemina announced a 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.125 to $4.425 billion. The midpoint of the 2026 guidance range represents 2023 to 2026 fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share compound annual growth of approximately 5%. positioning Pemina to deliver on the target we originally provided at our 2024 investor date. Based on Pemina's existing strong financial position, the 2026 year end proportionally consolidated debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio is expected to be approximately 3.7 to 4.0 times. Excluding debt related to the construction of the CEDAR LNG facility, which is expected to enter service in late 2028, This ratio would be approximately 3.4 to 3.7 times. With 2026 serving as the peak investment year for Cedar LNG, 2026 is also expected to represent the peak year for Pemina's proportionally consolidated debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio. With incremental cash flow from projects entering service and a significant ramp down in Cedar LNG spending for 2026, Pemina's leverage is expected to return to the lower end of its target range of 3.5 to 4.25 times. I'll now turn things back to Scott.

Thanks, Cam. Doing what we said we would do is core dependent of leadership team, and I believe our 2025 accomplishments and our longer track record as a company speak to that. We continue to focus on providing safe, reliable, responsible and cost effective energy infrastructure solutions. I believe we are uniquely positioned to capture incremental new volumes in the growing Western Canadian sedimentary basin and connect our customers to high-value global markets while unlocking new opportunities beyond our strong legacy business. Our entire organization is focused on ensuring the long-term resilience of our business and providing investors with visibility to attractive growth throughout the end of the decade and beyond. Thank you for joining us this morning. Please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. Please pick up your handset when asking a question. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Aaron McNeil of TD Cohen. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hey, morning, all. Thanks for taking my questions. I'm hoping you can sort of give a bit more detail on the decision not to pursue the full Taylor to Gordondale expansion. And I realize this could very well be my own interpretation, but my impression was that this would likely go ahead once the permits were in place. Either way, I guess I'm just wondering, has anything in terms of your outlook changed? Are you opting for maybe a lower risk approach? Has AHRQ's decision to remove the second phase of Attachee sort of caused you to pause this a bit? Or is it the commodity outlook? Or maybe I'm just overthinking it and this was always the strategy. So just any insights there would be helpful.

Good morning, Aaron. It's Jarrett. Thanks for the question. And I think it's a really good one. You know, like we said in our press release, we've got three projects on the go on the pipeline, conventional pipeline side. Our Foxhead and Mayo, which we talked about there a few quarters ago, our Birch to Taylor, and then our Taylor to Gordondale, kind of like we'll call it phase one. All of this capital, 100%, is being driven by, you know, really Canada unlocking our egress constraints. We have our oil constraints being alleviated, which is driving more demand for condensate. you know, our condensate import pipelines are fairly tapped, ours and a third party. So that's going to drive a lot of condensate domestic growth. And then obviously, you know, with that condensate comes natural gas and that egress constraint is also being lifted with LNG Canada being ramped up, Cedar coming online, other projects, et cetera. So that's really driving the need for condensate and NGLs. And I know you know that, but I think it's important to to ground ourselves that a lot of that growth is coming from obviously the Montney, but specifically up in that neighborhood of, I'll call it north of Taylor, BC, up into that north of Fort St. John, Fort Nelson geographic area. A lot of it's coming from there. That really drives to the Birch to Taylor project, if you think about it that way. So first off, I want to say that that project, the collaboration and the consolidation of industry, the indigenous communities and our partners, The BC government and the BC regulator, that was a tremendous outcome for us getting all of our hurdles in place and behind us collectively. That project really is allowing us, number one, it's going to grow our condensate and natural gas liquids, specifically C3 plus capacity. It's really to meet their needs, the growth demand that I talked about for all those other reasons. I think also, Aaron, sanctioning that project now and bringing that online, kind of the end of 27 into 28, it really shows that we've been really good at project execution. We pride ourselves on our safety record. We pride ourselves on working with local communities and subcontractors, et cetera. And I think really getting focused on making this project a cost-focused and a safety-focused project versus a schedule-driven project Because we all know our customers can drill significantly faster than we can build long linear assets. So that's kind of, you know, a birch to Taylor. Now I'll get into actually your question. So like you said, February 10th, we did receive our federal permit for Taylor to Gordondale. And I really think about Taylor to Gordondale as growth in the Montney in two other specific regions geographically. I'm going to call it the Dawson Creek area. So, you know, south, southeast of Taylor. we're seeing a lot of growth in the Montney in that neighborhood. And you're seeing, you know, it's the condensate in the C3 plus once again. And then on the Alberta side of the border, you're seeing a lot of growth in the Montney in what some refer to as the Peace River Arch in around that Gordondale and up to the western side of the Alberta border. Ultimately, you know, getting that permit was also a tremendous amount of work. We did have some You know, I would say objectors, commercial objectors, but I think our team persevered and got that. We will need that project full stop one day. The condensate, and it's in the near future, due to all the exact same demand. The condensate is growing in that area. The C3 plus is growing in that area. But what I will say is one of the things about Pemina is not only our ability to build projects on time in our budget, we also, our flexibility of our infrastructure and our people our people really took a step back and worked collaboratively with operations or engineering hydraulics teams. And they came up with a little bit more of a capital light solution. All of this capital we required for the full build out, but a capital light solution, which really is a prudent deployment of capital, which Cam gives me a high five for all the time. And it still allows us to meet our customer needs and meet their egress demand, almost like as they grow, it's almost on demand. We can go out and build this. Hopefully that provides you a little bit of color. We don't see this due to overall certain customers talking about production profiles and condensates growing. Natural gas is going to come with it. Pemina's ability to grow with our customers is, I think, better than anyone else in the basin.

That's a lot more detail than I was expecting. Thank you so much for that. Maybe second question. I can appreciate that marketing fundamentals have been challenging year to date, but we've seen Canadian gas prices decrease in the last few weeks, liquids pricing is on balance up since you released the guidance, which should sort of improve the frack spread and other marketing strategies. So I guess I'm just wondering if you'd characterize your previously disclosed marketing outlook as maybe a bit better on the margin now than you'd previously thought as we get sort of closer to that annual recontracting window?

Yeah, Aaron, thanks. Chris Sherman. You know, I think we've all seen significant volatility to start the year. Obviously, we're only 60 days in, and you just referenced it. We're happy to see the price outlook for the remainder of the year improve, especially sort of over the last week. And I think all in all, things are actually looking positive for us for the remainder of the year. I'd highlight the first 45 days of the year. We definitely saw some headwinds on U.S. frack spread, primarily as a result of U.S. weather, which drove up Chicago gas prices. But given those U.S. frack spread headwinds to start the year, combined with the improved outlook for the remainder of the year, right now we're still looking to be slightly ahead of the midpoint on our marketing guidance for the full year. I'd highlight there's still a lot of year left to go. I'd also highlight that given those headwinds earlier in the year, we can probably expect a little bit of a reshaping of the profile through the full year, but we're optimistic and sort of remain on plan for the full year. I hear you.

Aaron, I'll just, maybe it's Jared here. Just on the flip side of that, obviously with really high Chicago gas prices, that puts pressure on on our frog spread business, but it also, you know, the ACO to Chicago spread drives fee-based business to offset some of that noise. And then obviously, you know, I think Cam might talk to it, but we're seeing some fairly strong fluctuations in FX, you know, just over the last, you know, 60 days, et cetera.

Okay, fair enough. Thanks, everyone. I'll turn it back.

Your next question comes from Jeremy Toney from JP Morgan Securities. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Good morning, Jeremy. Just wanted to go to the Tourmaline contract extension, if I could, and just wondering, you know, how that looks, how that shakes out economics versus prior. Just wondering, you know, with the market right now, how it's developing, does it look similar on a same store basis there, or how are things evolving?

Hi Jeremy, it's Jarrett. So first off, really pleased to extend our partnership with Tourmaline. They're obviously one of our largest customers and one of the largest producers in Western Canada. You know, and it's always kind of, it warms my heart to see that the Cutbank Complex, which is Pemina's original acquisition into gas processing back in 2009, that we're continuing to see, you know, flat production, you know, growing production in and around that area. With respect to tolls, we won't get into the details on that, but obviously I'll break it down into a couple. Pipe and frac tolls, you'll see those consistent with the rest of our business. It wouldn't be specific to this customer in this area. And then on the PGI side of our business, the gas economics and the overall netbacks in and around this area, they are strong because of the liquids production that comes out of it that supports the overall netback for our customers. So In this area, you don't have to see a lot of toll erosion in order to meet the customer's needs on the processing side. With that said, although we're extremely excited to extend this partnership, you recall in Q3, we recorded a small write-down with respect to one of our processing contracts that didn't get extended in a different geographical area of the deep basin. So, but with that said, since that date of that press release and talking about that expiry, our teams who are focused on, you know, filling our assets every day have essentially recovered 60% of that value and will continue to backfill that portion of the business. Also, Jeremy, that has been fully baked into our, you know, the recontracting and, you know, the the Q3 announcement, that has fully been baked into our 2026 guidance and our overall long-range plan.

Okay, great. Thanks. Great to hear on that recovery there. I was just wondering if we could step back a little bit, take a higher view of the basin, kind of picking up with, you know, current commodity price outlook and how that, I guess, impacts the driller activity expectations for your customers. We've seen volatility out there. Just wondering what's the latest conversations you have with customers, ARK and others, and how you expect, I guess, activity to change over time?

Yeah, Jeremy, it's Scott here. I would just caution that, like Chris said, the increase in commodity price has happened pretty rapidly here. And let's break that down. I mean, it's really been on the crude oil price. I mean, we still have seen A ton of volatility in ACO and ACO and Station 2 today are kind of where we started the year, if not slightly below. Propane's kind of remained flattish. So it's very commodity specific. And the crude oil run up here has just happened very shortly. So I would say that this short term run up, I don't know that it's been sustained enough to say that producers have changed their activity from the start of the year. You know, there's also been a fair bit of M&A. to end last year um and and i think as people work through closing those those transactions you know hopefully over the next couple weeks or months here we'll see kind of revised drilling plans you know i this comment is not specific to to the recent mna because um you know obviously you can't talk about that but historically what i would say over the last two years as we've seen uh some of the consolidation happen we've actually seen an acceleration of volumes um You know, most people don't buy, you know, another company to keep production flat or decline it. Typically, we've seen growth. So we're excited to see what could come out of some of the consolidation, but can't speak specifically to that just yet.

Maybe just further to that, you know, when I break it down into the different geological formations, I'll start with like in the old school Drayton Valley area. We're also seeing, you know, these prices, even at $60, we're seeing a tremendous amount of drilling. And, you know, even as you talk about the, you know, the South Duvernay, et cetera, our system out in that area obviously is seeing strong volumes. If you move up into kind of that East River Arch area again that I talked about, you are seeing a lot of companies talk about Charlie Lake Oil. That's continuing to grow and Pemina has, you know, oil assets in the area to capture those volumes into the Edmonton market. If you go kind of north, back up, you know, our Clearwater area, the Nipissi pipeline, you know, based on all of the connections we have today and the pumps we have in place, you're seeing the upstream customers really talk about the recovery factors increasing, the drilling results, how economic they are. You know, you can continue to see Nipissi capture more and more of those volumes. And we're working on, I talked about the optimization we did at Taylor to Gordondale. Our teams are driving some really cool cheap expansions on the Clearwater for the Clearwater customers on the Nipsey pipeline. And then when you think about the Montney, I think I touched on it, but you know, our customers, they have so much land across so many geographical areas and Pemina's system obviously expands a significant geographical area. Our customers, if they're, you know, if they're having some challenges or they're maxed out on capacity in one area or are constrained by natural gas egress in an area, they can always redeploy capital. Like I said, The oil sands needs condensate. The import pipelines are fairly full. It has to come from somewhere. And our customers, the Alberta Innovation or the Western Canadian Energy Innovation, it will unlock this condensate. And I think our system is pretty primed to capture it. So things are in good shape.

Got it. Great. Thank you for that.

Your next call comes from Teresa Chen from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Morning. Now that Dell has provided a revised timeline for Path to Zero with Phase 1 expected by year end 29 and Phase 2 by year end 30, could you provide an update on the different options you're evaluating at this point and infrastructure investment necessary to supply the 50,000 barrel per day, I think, for your commitment?

Thanks for the question. It's Chris. So obviously, we're very pleased to see the project moving ahead in line with really our expectations. As we've touched on Dow before in your referencing, the minor delay in the project has allowed us to reevaluate how best to serve the customer here, what the most efficient, capital-efficient infrastructure options are. to serve the customers' needs. We will be out this year clarifying that. That work continues. We keep pointed down that path, so we look forward to making FID on this additional infrastructure this year, but we can't provide any more detail today on the call. Obviously, Dow, a valued partner to us, congratulate them on the progress they've made on the project, and we look forward to getting more details out to the market and progressing.

Understood. And turning to green light, given the progress there, the grid allocation, land sale, and turbine availability, what are the key next steps and decision points from here? What is the expected timeline for contracting FID and in-surface thereafter?

You bet. So, Chris, again, you know, obviously, we've made significant progress since forming that JV. You referenced it, right, in 2025. We secured the 907 megawatts of ASO allocation, which we subsequently assigned to our potential customer, entered into agreements on turbines, locked those up, got where we needed to be in the queue for those, closed our land sale to set our customer up for success. uh both on the base project as well as as well as a bunch of growth so as we're looking forward now uh we're targeting fid and q2 uh we're positive on uh you know on on that timeline and really focused on three three work streams between now and then number one uh commercial so we continue to work through negotiations with our potential customer We're in the middle of those negotiations. So, you know, obviously limited details on that at this point, but I'd say they're going as expected. Timelines are going as expected and we have confidence we're going to reach an extreme like long-term contract to underpin this commercially. Secondly, regulatory, we're making great progress. We don't view this as a high risk work stream for the project. And we're not part of the discussions between, you know, the the customer and the government, but we understand those are going really well. There's more information that's come out on the levy and the rest of it, which is, I think, positive and in line with expectations. And then finally, third work, stream engineering. So we're working through our feed. We've got top-tier global engineering partners in that. That's progressing well, all pointed towards Q2 FIG targets. So Scott spoke about it in his opening remarks, but I think things are going as we'd hoped on this. We think the project remains a tremendous on strategy extension of our business, and we're excited to get it across the line here in Q2.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Sam Burwell from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys. Wanted to see if you could give an update on the Alliance short haul extension project. I think back in 3Q you talked about running an open season during the first quarter of this year. So curious if there's any update on the progress you're making there.

Good morning. Jared here. So we continue to see strong demand in the Alberta industrial heartland area for natural gas to progress other industries.

um there's still a few days left in the quarter and you should expect to see an announcement um fairly shortly okay great um and i guess just like one quick um clarification on the the tourmaline deal um was all of that renewals of uh existing business effectively or is there anything incremental on the uh the transport side or the frac side no it was all essentially uh

All of it was renewal. Same volumes.

All right. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.

Thanks.

Your next question comes from Robert Hope from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Morning, everyone. Just want to maybe dive a little bit deeper into the timing of the April 7th presentation. Is anything specific deriving that? Do you think you'll have some incremental clarity on some of the projects that you're progressing? Or is it April 7th just to kind of, you know, make it a standalone event rather than giving, we'll call it longer-term guidance today?

Hey, Robert, it's Cam here. Yeah, really, I mean, honestly, a couple of factors. One, you know, we recognize there's a window here for market participants that works better or worse. And so as we get into March, you know, we start to interfere with, you know, potentially other commitments. But I think probably more presently, You know, things are moving fast, obviously, with certain of our key growth opportunities. And so our objective when we release a long-term guidance is to give you and our investors as much granularity and as much concreteness to that buildup. uh as possible and so uh you know i think our objective this time around you know whereas in 2024 we we generally gave um you know a growth outlook um and and some pieces which would support that we're really trying to provide uh the market with a really robust build up to that and so we'd love to be in a position to have obviously the most certainty possible around that build up and and that's the biggest factor that aligns with the sort of post Q1 timing.

I appreciate that. And then you've touched on most of the kind of, we'll call it the $4 billion bucket of potential projects, but PGI infrastructure was one that was highlighted as an opportunity set that you're advancing. Can you maybe expand a little bit further what opportunities you could see as the next phase of growth for PGI?

Rob, Jared here. Yeah, you know what? PGI is going to continue to grow their business. We obviously step one with respect to that business is filling white space. So some of the announcements we made with the infrastructure build-out we're doing with Whitecap in and around the Latour area, that's really all designed to, one, is fill existing white space at Whitecap. some plants in and around that area, but also then to grow the liquids volumes onto Pemina's peace pipeline system and the NGLs into Fort Saskatchewan, Pemina's redwater facilities. After that, we're looking at continuing to build out organically. There are opportunities out there that we're evaluating, so probably more to come on that. And then lastly, there's always the inorganic stuff. I think PGI out of any one of the gas processing facilities businesses in Western Canada has been ahead of its time with respect to creativity. And, you know, being on the board with KKR, we continue to encourage and press the team on to come back to us with more and more of those creative ideas. So that's kind of how we see the business there.

Great. Thank you.

Your next question comes from Spiro Denise from CT. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Operator, morning team. First, let me congratulate you all on your silver medal in hockey. Hard fought. Sorry if that's too soon. Going to the questions, I'll keep them above the belt here. Maybe just going to contract renewals. Scott, you mentioned over 200,000 barrels a day contracted last year and more to come in 2026. So maybe could you provide a broader commercial update on what you're expecting this year? Is it similar to 2025? In any reason, we can expect different outcomes, either positive or negative.

Yeah, thanks for the question, and I'll ignore the comment. Maybe next quarter we can talk about it. But yeah, you know, I think we did try to highlight it, you know, obviously a very, very successful 2025. You know, we feel like we've started off the year strong, as Jarrett mentioned, both with the tourmaline recontracting, but as well as the success on Alliance and NIPC. And so in terms of specifically to 2026, again, we're not going to get into specific contract profiles. It's obviously a competitive dynamic. But what I will say is that we would expect to have a little more granularity on this on our April 7th update and talk a little bit about more where we're at year to date and what our expectations are. So, you know, Good question, but I don't want to front run our April 7th update.

Yeah, I can totally respect that. Second question, maybe just going back to Taylor, to Gordondale. Just curious how you're thinking about the cadence and the timing for the remaining expansion phases, how you think you're going to break it up. And I ask because it looks like the CAPEX guidance is unchanged here. And so do the remaining phases FID in 26? It sounds like it could be after that.

Yeah, great question. I also put your comment behind me while I answer your question. Yeah, so the short haul or the phase one, pardon me, the short haul is aligned. Phase one, that's fully baked into our 2026 capital guidance right now. And with respect to FID timing, obviously it will be shortly in the future. You'll probably hear a little bit more on April 7th with respect to that. but it's really, we have some flexibility now to go and be very focused on project execution on this phase one and phase two will be coming really as, as we start to fill up these next phases. And, and like I said earlier to my question to Aaron, our answer to Aaron was, you know, really it's almost like an on-demand ability for us to grow, um, with our customers. And then also we'll be, um, You know, we have ordered our pipe and we have ordered, you know, obviously some of the above ground equipment like pumps and all that stuff. So that's all part of the process and for the full build out. So we will just deploy that capital as required.

Great, great. I appreciate the talk today, guys, and I'm sure I'll be eating crow in four years. Thanks.

Your next question comes from Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Maybe just turning to green light. So I understand the commercial details. They're still being finalized. But can you provide any high-level guardrails on maybe the minimum IRR that you'd look to achieve here? And also whether this would be a take or pay or cost of service like contract? And then as a follow-up, I guess if you were to FID Greenlight, considering it's got an in-service state pushing into the next decade, would this influence your long-term EBITDA CAGR guidance that you plan to give in April? And I guess how far out do you think you could reasonably guide if you get this project?

It's Chris. I'll take the first part on Greenlight and then maybe turn it over to Cam to talk about guidance. You know, as I mentioned, we're in the middle of negotiations, so unfortunately can provide, you know, limited guidance. But what I can say is, you know, it's a long-term contract. It's a long-term contract with, you know, midstream-like attributes. It looks a lot like our core business, and we're really pleased with the fact that we've been able to do that. You know, I think when it comes down to it, if you think about it on a build multiple basis, you know, it's going to look a lot like other pavement and greenfield projects that we've been doing under long-term contracts with ancillary benefits down the road as we think about integrating, you know, gas supply and the other components into it. Looking to drive that down over time, consistent with how we've pursued other projects in our core business.

Yeah, I just add a little bit of color. You know, obviously we have a partner, a partner on the file and therefore, you know, a private equity partner and therefore would need to project finance the project, which, you know, when you stack those two things up, you can assume that there would be a low risk situation.

uh ebitda profile in order to support a project finance and bernice it's cam i'll just pick up on one thing that um chris said around the the structure and and that is you know want to reiterate and make sure everyone understands that, uh, you know, well, the project in its own right is a really interesting project. One of the, one of the things that really sells it for us or really gets us excited about it is the integration with the rest of our business. And so you've heard us talk about it and I think we'll be in a position to talk more about it, you know, or, or more, more, um, more succinctly about it, uh, as we get to our, our April 7th presentation. But, you know, in summary, I mean, there's a ton of integration potential around the Alberta Industrial Heartland. And I think the so what of that is it really starts to take a greenfield-like return profile and really turn it into a brownfield-like return profile ultimately for Pemina. And so that's what gets us really excited about that. And you couple that with a low-risk contract structure and a growth outlook, obviously. As we said before, once Once these types of opportunities get built, and certainly has been the precedent on the southern side of the border, they tend to cluster. And I think as we walked our board through yesterday, we have a ton of advantage in terms of our Alberta industrial heartland position, everything that comes along with that. And so getting the first one in the ground gives us a huge advantage in terms of building a business out of this.

That's very helpful. And then you kind of touched on this, but I guess with the NIPC pipeline running full, can you walk us through, I guess, some of the next phases of potential expansion, what that might look like? It sounds like you're adding incremental capacity through additional pump stations, if I heard correctly, so at a low rate. low CapEx cost, but I guess how much more of that can you do? And how should we think about the likely commercial structure here? Is this kind of fee based or cost of service some of the expansions that you're looking at?

Thanks. As Jared touched on, and he can provide a little bit more color, we are going through some debottlenecks, which can add, as you pointed out, some very reasonable, both from a return and from a time-to-market debottlenecks. I think the bigger picture here, longer term, is we have an opportunity to expand portions of that pipe. to add significant uh capacity and so we're right now doing the the engineering and continuing to advance the engineering on on what that might look like and are having commercial discussion so we kind of have a two-faced approach we have the early the bottlenecks and then we have a a larger potential uh winning of the pipe anything you guys want to add

Notice that when we say right now that so commercially we're contractually full for the base asset, but we do have a third party that's going to be making connection in the next few months that will get us to physically being full on a physical basis. And then the deep bottleneck projects I talked about will give us about 20 to 30% incremental torque on that asset. And that truly is through drag reducing agent that we use every day on our quotient pipeline. We're very familiar with how that works, and we'll try work installing that and then just some minor horsepower upgrades to get that capacity.

Cameron? It's Cam. I just want to chime in one more piece here, and I think it's worth noting that the history on this asset is something that we're quite proud of and I think speaks to our business and our commercial aptitude overall, which is Obviously, this asset was in a different form of service with a different customer pre-2021, and it was underpinned by a long-term contract at this point. We obviously took out of service because we thought that was the right thing to do in light of the options. And as we sit here today, the EBITDA that this pipe will generate in 2026 is materially above what it did in the former service under the foundational contracts, like to the tune of 50%. And we see significant growth opportunity on top of that. So we're really pleased with our approach to that. I think it speaks to both the diversity and the optionality in our business.

Your next question comes from Maurice Choi from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I just wanted to start with your capacity to do these projects. You sanctioned a few more projects today. Sounds like you've got at least the Dow and Greenlight projects to come later this year. How would you characterize your remaining investment capacity for the remainder of, say, this decade that you can actually self-fund before your debt to EBITDA perhaps moves meaningfully closer to your 4.25 limit?

Yeah, great question, Maurice. It's Cam here. So I'd say I'd go back to some things we've said in the past, which is our track record and our intention has been that we obviously seek to to fund capital with cash flow after dividends. And at our level that we're at today, we can think about that as roughly plus or minus about a billion and a half dollars a year in any given year. um for round numbers and i would say obviously uh this year uh we've talked about how it's the uh the peak year for cedar uh we are running a slight free cash flow deficit in 2026 but as we look forward to uh 2027 and beyond uh you know we begin to generate uh meaningful free cash flow again based on our currently sanctioned project opportunity profile as we think about larger opportunities and if you want to think about what might come on top of it like let's uh let's dream for a moment around um green light and and that becoming a reality uh and multiple opportunities on top of that i think that's where we start to you know like the structure that we have today which is obviously a partner and and we have that in other parts of our business We like the opportunities within our business and honestly look at various financing opportunities which will enable us. You know, when you do the really simple math around deploying a billion and a half dollars at historical return multiples that Pemina has done, you know, you can you can pretty clearly get to a mid single digit growth number for Pemina, you know, into a very long term. And so we like that we have that investment capacity and not only just the financial capacity, I think we have the execution capacity. Clearly, we have a really solid track record of executing projects on time on budget. And we're applying that to projects in our core business, as well as some of these ones which are, you know, on the face of it new for us, maybe, but realistically, very similar to what we've done in the past in many other ways and taking a similar strategy. So we're managing the risk from that perspective.

If I could just finish up by following up on the three streams you discussed on the green light project. I accept that these things are complex, does involve a lot of work, but is there anything material here that is out of your control or your counterparty's control that you see may derail this FID or even the timing of it?

Okay. I'll chime in, and Chris, feel free to add anything. But I think to answer that question, I mean, we are obviously in control of our project and the negotiations with our customers. but we don't control our customers' ultimate decision to FID their innovation center. So there's two pieces to this, to the puzzle, and I think that's potentially what you're getting at. So there's obviously our piece, and then there's the innovation center piece, and that's not obviously within our control.

Thank you very much.

Your next call comes from Robert Catalia from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just a quick one here on the new pipeline. I'm just curious on the commercial impetus to use a cost of service agreement on the Birch to Taylor expansion.

That's just the legacy of that pipeline. That's how that pipeline's been underpinned for But, you know, ten years as soon as we since we put it into service. So that's just been the initial contracting. And that's how that that pipeline is structured.

Okay. And then I just wanted to turn to LNG and some maybe longer dated questions here. As you're aware, there's been some media reports about the owners of LNG Canada potentially monetizing their stakes in phase one to or partially monetizing in order to fund a phase two. Uh, and given comments have had a history of developing export options, I'm just curious on your view or interest in participating in an existing operating LNG facility other than the one you're building. The second part of that is, you know, if you look ahead in the possibility of a Cedar LNG phase two, I'm wondering if there's enough Pipeline capacity from coastal gasoline gases or if it expands to be able to support a Cedar LNG phase two down the road.

Yeah, I I think on your on your first question. you know, our understanding from media reports is that it's simply a financing to help fund phase two. So, you know, that's not something that we're currently participating in. You know, we don't want to be a passive investor in something. So nothing to see from a Pemina perspective on the rumors of a sell down. And then on the second part of the question, I mean, we have positioned you know, Cedar to potentially take incremental gas, whether it's the Cedar Link pipeline or a few of the other onshore facilities. And so we would love to do a Cedar too, but as you pointed out, it's solely dependent on gas supply. And what I would say is right now, our partners at LNG Canada, I think are pretty focused on getting phase one up and running and engineering phase two. So I think until they're through some of those decisions, we won't have a line of sight to that, but we stand ready, willing, and able if that's a possibility.

Okay, thanks very much.

Your next question comes from Benjamin Pham from BMO. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Just on the topic of the value chain, extensions and opportunities. I mean, PEM has been pretty good at that part of it. You added gas and then LNG and then now power. My question specifically on the power side is, is that from your advantage now, is that more getting your feet wet, get a DC green light opportunity, do a couple go-jams, or is there a much more broader potentially target to gild opportunity? growth allocation here at the time I was looking at?

It's Chris. Well, you know, here's what I'd say. I'd say we definitely see the potential for significant growth in the gas to power space, in particular to power data centers. We think that the Alberta market and Alberta is ripe for growth in that space. And we think we're really well positioned with our current project with our partners. And so, you know, for us, it is one of the growth pathways that we're, you know, pursuing, frankly, and see an opportunity to grow into. We're not looking to grow into the merchant power space. that's not a, that's not a space we're going to go to. You mentioned co-gens, I mean, co-gens, integrated co-gens associated with, with existing infrastructure and deals are certainly in play, but, but as far as the meaningful growth pathway, it's really that behind the meter, gas to power to support innovation center growth, which, which we see a lot of potential in.

And I'll just add to that, Ben, if you think about it, You know, I mentioned earlier in the call that gas egress is obviously one of the biggest constraints for Canadians to produce condensate and get it up to the oil sands. A full build out of cedar is roughly, pardon me, a full build out of green light is roughly 75% of the same gas consumption that cedar would be. So obviously driving that for our customers, allowing them to fill our value chain in other areas is pretty key for Pemina.

Okay, I got it. Thanks for the context. And basically the value chain side of things. What's Pemba's current view on the oil side of things, whether it's organic or inorganic?

Well, you know, I think from our perspective, we remain bullish on oil growth. As Jarrett mentioned a few times in his comments, we're excited about all the potential de-bottlenecks on the Enbridge system and on TMX. for a couple of reasons. That's obviously going to drive growth in the oil sands, which should have a pull on condensate, which should be good for our overall system. In terms of Pemina's specific investments as it relates to oil, right now I'd say our two main focuses would be on the Nipissi pipeline, which we've talked to at length today, and then as Jared also mentioned earlier, the Charlie Lake oil play on our conventional system. So that's really where we're focused from a direct oil exposure, but we are excited and bullish on oil growth in the oil sands and therefore condensate.

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Sumantra Banerjee from UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you so much for taking the question. Just a quick general one on capital allocation. I know you discussed your comments on leverage and the previous question on investment capacity before, but I just wanted to ask if you had any more color you could add on 2026 capital allocation priorities?

Yeah, it's Cam here. I guess I'll just reiterate that for 2026, we're really focused on project execution. And so obviously, we are sustaining a free cash flow deficit in 2026. So barring a material change in our business performance, free cash flow is going to be directed towards capital execution in 2026. outside of that uh you know we expect to continue we've had a long track record of a growing dividend and so you know anticipate to continue to deliver that and in line with our historical um trend uh in 2026 and and beyond that uh and outside of that you know it continues to be just uh execution uh all around um obviously you know we continue to reassess things should market fundamentals changed drastically, but as we see the world right now, it's sort of steady as she goes in the way we've laid it out in our guidance.

Great. Thank you so much. I'll turn it over.

Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny from NBCM. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, guys. I was just wondering if we can get an update on the the yellowhead extraction opportunity, assuming that the pipeline starts construction here in a few months. I'm curious what the timing could look like for your extraction opportunity. You talked about how tight the condensate market is, but I guess with Redwater 4 coming online soon, I just wanted to get an update on how you're thinking about a Redwater 5 based on C3 plus fundamentals.

Hey, Pat, it's Chris. I'll take the Yellowhead question and then turn over to Jared. So continue to progress, Yellowhead. Remain excited about that project. Expect something this year, frankly, as far as an announcement, if we can keep everything on track and get to where we want to get it.

And, Pat, with respect to RFS 5, I'll just point out RFS 4 is not on yet, but I'm just kidding. You know, it really will come down to incremental frack capacity, either be it regional or in the Fort Saskatchewan area. Pemina, obviously, we believe we have a great product for our customers today. We have unit train capacity. We have ample storage. You know, we have high reliability and availability and we do, RFS4 is being executed at a, you know, on a dollar per barrel basis, significantly better than any other frac expansions in Western Canada right now. With all that said, NGL frac capacity is really going to grow with new gas egress. So as we get more and more, you know, light and see that LNG Canada phase two or other projects becoming real and in service, that's really because that gas demand has to find a home, then the NGLs will get extracted. So I kind of always think of it as frack capacity will continue to grow with gas stress constraints getting unlocked. But we're in a tremendous position to be building five.

Okay, great. Thanks for that. And then maybe we've got just a high level here as it relates to the Grand Bargain MOU. Obviously, we're waiting for clarity on carbon policy this spring. I was just curious your thoughts on what industry would need to see in order to, you know, support projects like Pathways or even your Alberta Carbon Grid. Just overall, what needs to happen to support that next major wave of oil sands growth?

Well, you know, I think when we just highlighted a couple times today, we have You know, what I'll say is some very economic and fast to market expansions up to 700,000 barrels. I mean, those numbers have been floating around slightly higher, slightly lower on TMX and Enbridge. And to me, that feels like the first wave that's going to be unlocked. And we're pretty excited about that. You know, it's great to see the governments coming together and working in a more constructive manner. You know, I think we're pretty optimistic about what could come out of that. you know, specifically as it relates to carbon price, I think just as we've highlighted over the last several years, certainty and regulatory certainty will be a huge factor impact on whether some of these carbon activities go ahead or not. You know, one of the things that we've talked a lot about, you know, we haven't talked about our ACG project for a while, but that's not because we haven't been working on it in the background and we continue to progress it. But it's hard to contract it when you don't know what the carbon price is. And I think, you know, as we get more clarity on long-term carbon price, that will allow us companies to make the decisions that they are going to make around capturing carbon or not. So I'm pleased to see that we're making some progress and optimistic as we move towards April that the governments are going to come together and come up with a plan that works for everybody.

Okay, that's perfect. I'll leave it there. Thanks, guys.

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Scott Burrows, CEO, for closing remarks.

Thank you for all the questions today and the interest in PAMENA. I'd be remiss after talking about all the accomplishments in 2025 if I didn't thank all of our hardworking staff and contractors and communities that we work with. So thank you, everyone. And I think you heard on the call today We're pretty excited and optimistic about 2026 and beyond. Have a good rest of your day.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.