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spk12: Greetings and welcome to the Saputo Incorporated third quarter fiscal 2024 results conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press the 1 followed by the 4 on your telephone. If at any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, please press star 0. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on Friday, February 9, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Nick. Please go ahead.
spk03: Thank you, Frank. Good morning and welcome to our third quarter fiscal 2024 earnings column. Our speakers today will be Lino Saputo, Chair of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Maxime Therrien, Chief Financial Officer and Secretary. For the question and answer session, Lino and Maxime will be supported by Carl Kalitsa, President and Chief Operating Officer, North America, and Leanne Cutts, President and Chief Operating Officer, International and Europe. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this webcast and conference call are being recorded and the webcast will be posted on our website along with the third quarter investor presentation. Please also note that some of the statements provided during this call are forward-looking. Such statements are based on assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We refer to our cautionary statements regarding forward-looking information in our annual report, press releases, and finalists. Please treat any forward-looking information with caution as our actual results could differ materially. We do not accept any obligation to update this information, except as required under securities legislation. I'll now hand it over to Leo.
spk04: Thank you, Nick, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, we continued to execute with discipline and advanced a long-term strategy in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $370 million on revenues of $4.3 billion. Our Canadian sector continued to show its enduring strength, while our U.S. sector also made good progress, notably supported by our capital projects. Higher sales volumes, coupled with the operational benefits of our capital spending program, as well as our emphasis on cost management and continuous improvement, had a favorable impact on our results. Importantly, operating cash flow during the third quarter was strong. Volatile global dairy commodity markets and a challenged consumer were persistent themes in the third quarter, much like in the fiscal year to date. But while the consumer is still shopping with value-seeking behavior, we are seeing clear progress in volume recovery across our business segments. As macroeconomic drivers impact the global economy and continue to drive commodity price volatility, we remain focused on managing the factors within our control and stabilizing the business. Our priority areas include operational excellence, successfully executing the major capital projects underway, cost containment, and cash flow generation. We are making material progress in advancing the key initiatives of our strategic plan and continue to build confidence in the next stage of our growth. We reached a critical juncture in the implementation of our global strategic plan during this quarter, I'm delighted with how projects are advancing and the impact of the actions completed to date. I expect these investments to contribute to our results starting in early fiscal 2025. With most of the heavy lifting behind us, I remain very confident in our long-term strategy and am optimistic about the future. Our focus on execution will position us well to enter fiscal 2025 with much momentum. I will now turn the call over to Max for the financial review before providing my concluding remarks. Max?
spk05: Thank you, Lino, and good morning, everyone. Going over financial highlights for the quarter, consolidated revenues were $4.3 billion, while adjusted EBITDA amounted to $370 million, down 16.9% versus last year. Lower year-over-year adjusted EBITDA was driven by lower international cheese and dairy ingredient market prices, the negative impact from the US market factor, also negative impact from the selling of inventory produced at high milk prices in the UK, and an unfavorable foreign exchange impact when converting Foreign currency to the Canadian dollar mainly due to the significant devaluation of the Argentinian peso in December. Positive drivers include higher sales volume in both domestic and export markets, ongoing cost containment measure, lower logistics costs, and benefits derived from our global strategic plan, including continuous improvement, supply chain optimization, and automation initiatives. We reported a net loss of $124 million in the third quarter. On an adjusted basis, our earnings were $163 million, or $0.38 per share. Third quarter results include a non-cash impairment charge of $265 million relative to the Australia division. In performing our annual goodwill impairment testing, our dairy division Australia cash generated unit, CGU, estimates of future discounted cash flow were reduced due to the increasing disconnect in the relationship between international cheese and dairy ingredient market prices and farm gate milk price in a context of declining milk pool in Australia. As a result, the estimated recoverable value of the Australia CGU was determined to be lower than its carrying value, and a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $265 million was recorded in the third quarter, representing the total value of the goodwill for this CGU. Third quarter results also include closure and restructuring costs of $6 million. I'll now take you through key highlights by sector, starting with Canada. Revenues for the third quarter total $1.3 billion, an increase of 5% when compared to last year. Revenue increased due to higher selling prices in connection with the higher cost of milk as raw material, and the carryover impact of pricing initiatives, mostly in the first half of 2024. implemented to mitigate ongoing inflationary pressures on our input costs. Sales volume were stable year-over-year in the retail market segment, while sales volume in the food service were higher. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter, total $150 million, up 1% versus the same quarter last fiscal year. Our stable performance reflected benefit from our cost containment measure. lower logistics costs and benefits derived from our global strategic plan, which reached their stable run rate. In our US sector, revenue total $2.1 billion and over 5% lower versus last year. Revenue decreased due to the combined effect of the lower average cheese block, butter and dairy ingredient market prices. Sales volume were stable with higher domestic sales volume despite ongoing competitive market condition, whereas export sales volume were lower. Adjusted EBITDA declined 9% to $133 million. The year-over-year decrease was mostly driven by a $27 million negative impact from U.S. market factor, driven by the combined effect of the cheese milk spread the inventory realization, and dairy ingredient market prices. Also, $10 million of costs incurred to implement previously announced network optimization initiative was recorded in the quarter. These factors were partially mitigated by operational improvement and lower logistics costs. In the international sector, Revenues for the third quarter were $636 million, down 31% versus last year, adjusted at the total $85 million, down 26% versus last year. The performance of the sector was negatively impacted by the unfavorable relation between the international cheese and dairy ingredient market prices and the cost of milk as raw material, and also an unfavorable FX impact from the conversion of the functional currencies used in the international sector to the Canadian dollar mainly due to the significant devaluation of the Argentinian peso. The impact of the FX conversion amounted to $305 million on revenue and $36 million on EBITDA. A decrease in certain market selling price also resulted in an inventory write-down of $14 million. This was partially offset by higher milk intake, increased export sales volume, and the carryover effect of previously announced pricing action in our domestic market. Our results were also positively impacted by previously announced network optimization initiatives aimed at improving our operational efficiencies and strengthening our competitiveness in Australia. In the Europe sector, revenue were $304 million, while adjusted EBITDA amounted to $2 million. The decline in adjusted EBITDA was due to the selling off of inventory produced at high milk prices last fiscal year. Lower international dairy ingredient market price also had a negative impact. Net cash generated from operating activities for the third quarter amounted to $388 million as compared to $134 million for the same period last year. The increase was driven by ongoing working capital and inventory management initiatives. We remain on track on our capital investment plan. CapEx for the quarter totaled $140 million and the year-to-date spending is in line with our expectation. We continue to expect a significant improvement in our cash flow generation over time, as will be our investing benefits from the global strategic plan and our capex returning to a level similar to our depreciation and amortization expense range. Finally, we announced yesterday the suspension of the dividend reinvestment plan. The suspension of the drift is the result of our leverage position as well as our expectation on cash flow generation going forward. This concludes my financial review, and with that I'll turn the call back to Tolino. Thank you, Max.
spk04: In Canada, our results reflect our relentless focus on commercial and operational execution with a diversified portfolio that offers consumers variety, convenience, and value. Our global strategic plan delivered continuous improvement, supply chain optimization, and automation initiatives. Volume improves on the strength of the food service market segment, notably with QSR customers. Our retail market segment also benefited from a busy holiday season with everyday cheese volume supported by increased brand investments, particularly with Armstrong. In the U.S., the business is building momentum. we have seen more operational stability and sustained improvements in customer fill rates. Volume trends in our domestic market continue to recover while our broad-based capital investment plan is on track with several major projects well underway. Dairy commodity markets remain volatile during the third quarter. U.S. dairy market pressures were only partially mitigated by higher sales volumes and lower logistics costs. But if you look past this market noise. The core business has performed well so far this year. The quality of our top line momentum has improved with a healthier balance across price, volume, and mix. While these temporary market dynamics have certainly lasted longer than we had anticipated, markets are expected to stabilize over time. However, it is the speed of the recovery that remains unknown. We have also been making progress on our strategic plan in the U.S. with advancements on network optimization and automation and with better visibility on our savings opportunities. New cheese red lines are in startup mode at our Tulare page plan and we are meeting customer demand. The plan closure of our Big Stone, Green Bay and Southgate facilities by the end of fiscal 2025 should further support cheese network optimization plans. In the third quarter, we closed our Belmont facility and benefits from the recently converted Reedsburg goat cheese manufacturing plant should continue to increase in Q1 of fiscal 2025 once our Lancaster facility is permanently closed. The new automated cut and wrap facility in Franklin is currently running with benefits expected to begin by the end of this quarter. The targeted investments made position us well to operate more efficiently and do more for our customers than we ever had before. This is expected to drive momentum going into fiscal 25. In the international sector, global dairy markets remain challenging due to unfavorable dairy commodity prices. In Australia, our results were in line with the previous quarter. We benefited from higher milk intake resulting in better operating efficiencies offset by unfavourable dairy commodity prices. Based on the milk decline and current challenging market conditions, we reviewed our estimates of future cash flow for our Australian division. This resulted in a non-cash impairment of $265 million on the value of the goodwill for the Australia division recorded in the third quarter. While there is still uncertainty in the near-term market dynamics, we are dedicated to doing everything we can to maximize the results of the division. Our strategy remains unchanged. We've continued to advance our network optimization and we are benefiting from the positive impact from several streamlining activities completed over the last few quarters. The business remains focused on its domestic market with select key customers in the export market playing an important role. We are maintaining our disciplined approach to managing the business and we are confident we will be in a much better position with the actions we are taking. In Argentina, weakness in the export commodity prices and the recent devaluation of the Argentinian peso impacted our results, but our domestic business remains strong with higher pricing and volumes. In the Europe sector, the selling of inventory produced at higher milk prices continue to be a headwind in the quarter as expected. Moving forward, our performance should improve sequentially as we cycle through high-cost inventory and as we begin to ship new value-added private label contracts. Efficiency benefits from the expanded Nuneaton packing facility are also expected to accelerate once the closure of the Froome plant is completed in Q1 of fiscal 2025. We are also pleased with the rate of volume recovery in the retail branded channel and our progress around optimization initiatives. Turning now to our outlook for the remainder of the year, we anticipate many of the trends from the third quarter will carry over into the fourth, including in the international sector, notably in Australia, where there is an ongoing disconnect between the international cheese and dairy ingredient prices and farm gate milk prices. We expect the environment to remain volatile and challenging in the near term, from input costs to currencies to consumer and geopolitical dynamics. While global dairy commodity markets are not where we would like them to be, we remain focused on the factors within our control. Nonetheless, our confidence in the overall health of the business and our growth drivers remain unchanged. We are proactively reducing costs and maximizing cash flow while maintaining a broad focus on financial flexibility and operating discipline. When we embarked on our Global Strategic Plan initiative nearly three years ago, my priority was to steward the company through one of the most important phases in our history and to see through the completion of our capital investments. We've had to realign and adjust to many challenges, and we have adapted to an ever-changing environment. And now we are approaching the end of our multi-year capital expansion plan with a clear line of sight to project benefits. By the end of this investment cycle, we will have built a resilient business with strong growth and earnings potential. As I look back over the past three years and our journey through an unprecedented time, I'm often reminded of the passionate, purposeful people who make us who we are today. I can say with confidence our foundations are solid, our infrastructure is unique, and our team is focused. Simply, our best days lie ahead. And on that note, I thank you for your time. And I will now turn the call over to Frank for questions. Frank?
spk12: Thank you. If you would like to register a question, please press the 1-4 on your telephone. You will hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to withdraw your registration, please press the 1 followed by the 3. One moment, please, for the first question. Our first question comes from Irene Natal with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.
spk06: Thanks, and good morning, everyone. As you outlined in your comments, there's a lot that's going to come together in F25 from, you know, let's call it the productivity and efficiency side as a result of so many projects coming on stream. If we assume that nothing changes in the commodity backdrop, how should we think about the financial benefits as we move through 25 and 26 of all of these initiatives?
spk04: Yeah, so some of the things, Irene, that we need to keep in mind going into fiscal 25, a lot of the heavy lifting has been done. So when you think about just simple things like CapEx spend, we're going back to our normalized level. So you can expect a much reduced capital expenditure. You can also assume that within at least three of our geographies where we've got network optimization plans in place, that there's going to be less overall overhead expenses relative to the division with the same amount of volume or a little bit more volume than we're currently processing. So all of those factors, in addition to what we call the enabler bucket, Enabler bucket is beyond network optimization. All of that SG&A expense that we have, similar to what we've talked about in the past relative to the consolidation of our two U.S. businesses, we have a network that we are going to be servicing that is smaller in footprint than what we had before. So by the nature of that, there are going to be some reductions in SG&A as well. So all of these elements, you know, the things that we've been talking about for the last three years and that we've executed on pretty effectively and efficiently through an unprecedented time on budget and on time will start to deliver benefits for us in fiscal 25. So I'm extremely excited about going into next fiscal year with the infrastructure and the focus that we have. And I think that there are going to be benefits beyond you know, just the network optimization in terms of us delivering incremental value for our shareholders.
spk06: That's very helpful. Thank you. And, you know, switching to more sort of near-term elements, can you talk through what you're seeing out there in the various regions in terms of consumer behavior and demand and the impact that that's having on your mix and margins?
spk04: Yeah, so I'll just talk about the macro environment, and then perhaps Carl and Leanne can jump into each division. We are seeing a slowing milk production around the world, and we see this in just about every dairy-producing country around the world. The economics for dairy farmers are challenged, and there are a lot more pressures relative to ESG as well on dairy farmers and laws that they have to contend with. So the dairy farming community is resilient, but the folks that are not as well invested or as efficient are dropping off in terms of dairy farms and their contribution to milk production. We are seeing that the consumer is resilient as a whole. in our domestic markets, but the international market still remains a big question mark. We're not quite sure when the buyers are going to come back, although we have seen signs on the GDT that have been encouraging. There's still nothing that is sustainable for us to say that there is going to be certainty that buyers are coming back to the market. As a whole, there is a good balance between supply and demand. So that should hold up prices to at least where they are now, with perhaps some slight improvement. But the focus that we have as a business is more to understand what we can control, deliver on the goods and the investments that we've made, and make sure that we continue to drive value. So perhaps I'll have Carl start off with a more domestic feel for what we're seeing in within each of our Canadian and US countries.
spk14: Thanks, Lionel. Maybe I'll start with our US business. Certainly, we're seeing some challenges with consumer spending capabilities with some of the economic pressures, but nonetheless, over the last couple of periods, we've seen consumer sentiment tick up. Very encouraging from that standpoint. We have certainly seen a shift from full-service restaurants down to QSR. So the consumer is, I'll say, trading down in some cases, as well as the shift from some areas of branded business down to a private label. But all in all, for Saputo, I think there's nonetheless two bright spots, and that is the scope in which we play in the US, the categories and the sectors. We supply both our branded business as well as private label, so we're well positioned to be able to capture whatever gains there may be in each of those sectors. If there's a more pronounced shift from the food service sector to retail, we're also much better positioned than we were a couple of years ago when that shift occurred during the early days of the pandemic. From that perspective, we are seeing some shifts in the mindset, but I would say that overall, whether that be U.S. or Canada, dairy is still in very good standing with consumers. So it is a very good value proposition for the consumer, as well as a value proposition for elements of the food service menu agenda. So that would be from a U.S. perspective. In Canada, not much different. Consumers are challenged, as you certainly would have seen and heard from other peers in the industry. But I would say, nonetheless, the strength of our brands, the strength of our value proposition and our service, in particular in Canada, has seen us continue to see share gains, both in retail and in food service, and continue to make penetrations in different market segments. So still very optimistic about our ability to navigate these challenging consumer days.
spk01: And Irene, it's Leanne, I'll build on that. We're also seeing in the UK, although the macroeconomic conditions there have been more challenged for the consumer, we are still seeing good demand for cheese. In fact, the cheese category is now growing in both value and volume over the last quarter. We are lapping significant increases in our price, but what we're seeing now with Cathedral City is that we're now growing share. We're taking share from both other brands, and private labels. Our price gap to private label is now quite narrow and it's stable. So we are seeing consumers in the category and that is really good for our business in the UK. And in Australia similarly, but the value and our volume for our cheese categories is stable. So we are seeing consumers, they're coming in the category and continuing to buy.
spk06: That's very helpful.
spk04: Anyone, do you want to say something? Yeah, go ahead. Sorry, I was just going to ask Leanne if she has any other comments on Argentina, which is also a very good story, despite the volatility that's there and the change in government and such.
spk01: That's right. We have a very excellent management team there who are used to successfully navigating some of the conditions there. So despite the new government and, in fact, We've seen no impacts to our business, and in fact, actually, we're continuing to grow our export business in volume, and also our domestic consumption remains robust.
spk11: Thank you.
spk12: Our next question comes from George Dumais with Scotia Capital. Please proceed.
spk07: Hi, good morning, Max. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the higher volumes in the U.S. domestic market. What's driving that? Maybe how sustainable is that in the face of the commodity market?
spk14: Well, George's car, I'll take that one. I think that it's good news all around, and it's a testament to the choices that we've made in our capital plan, as well as our improved position when it comes to our turnover. So we've materially reduced our turnover quarter over quarter, and that puts us in a much better position to be able to supply the demand that has been present in the marketplace for us. And that demand is coming in a number of channels. One, in the mozzarella space, we're in a better position today than we were certainly last year, so some strengths in this area. We've reaffirmed some of our market-leading positions in goat and blue cheese, as well as some of our hard Italian positions, and as well as our dairy foods items, you know, heavy whipping creams and other high-fat products are also in good demand, and we're in a great position to be able to supply that with the asset base that we have. So from that perspective, we've been able to service the market well, our fill rates Now it's been at least three to four quarters whereby our fill rates are in a great position, and we're doing that also with a better management of our overall inventory. So we've got certainly the right products in the right buildings for appropriate distribution. We're also doing that with fewer pounds and also fewer pounds of waste overall. So all this to say that the domestic market We're cautious about the consumer, of course, but we're very confident in our ability to supply the various segments and the shifts in the demands that may occur.
spk07: Yeah, thanks for that. Maybe switching gears to Canada. I believe Q3 is seasonally the strongest quarter, but we saw EBITDA margins in Canada kind of compress sequentially. Is that just a question of timing of pricing or is there anything else kind of going on there?
spk14: No, I would say that in the Canadian business, there's been a little bit of a shift in some of the mix, certainly. One of the things that we don't talk about a lot, but is beginning to creep in just a little bit in the Canadian business is also the commodities markets. And that's really associated to the the way byproduct that it produces. So Canada is not fully sheltered from the value of the commodity space when it comes to its way byproducts. So some of that had a negative impact in Q3. But overall, I would say that we're in a strong position when it comes to the investments that we've put in. They are contributing almost to their fullest of degrees to date. and the future outlook for the Canadian platform is for the strong Canadian team to continue with the value proposition that they bring in the various segments that we service. We have various innovations still to come, various cost-out initiatives as well, so still expect to have some growth in the Canadian sector.
spk07: Okay, thanks. And maybe last one for me, Lino. I think there's obviously an expectation for strong free cash flow generation and good deleveraging over the next 12 months. Probably positioned just below our balance sheet comfort zone. So I guess given where the stock is today, what do you think is the priority maybe for capital deployment kind of over the next 12 to 18 months?
spk04: Yeah, first and foremost for us, we are focused on strong operating cash flow. And that is in all divisions and all categories. You know, just as simple as right-sizing our inventories as well, making sure that working cap is in line. Of course, with inflation coming back down to more normalized levels, you know, working cap inventories, accounts receivables are coming back to more normalized areas. CapEx is slowing down as well. We're looking at a much reduced CapEx spend for fiscal 25. So free cash flow is going to be a big priority for us as we get into fiscal 25. We're looking at priorities for us, yes, dividend, debt repayment, and continuing to execute on the development of our businesses as short-term goals. And then, of course, as we look at more long-term, creating value for shareholders through buybacks and such. But I think we're We might be a few quarters away from that yet. Primary focus is dividend and debt repayment.
spk07: Great. Appreciate it.
spk12: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Van Alst with TD Securities. Please proceed. Hi. Good morning.
spk13: Thank you. Can you just clarify what that CapEx number is that you expect it to be in fiscal 25?
spk05: Okay, so Mike, this is Max. So we're looking, you know, about 200 to 250 million lower than what it is, the run rate this year. We should be finishing the year around the 650-ish. So in around like just slightly north of 400 would be a number that you could work with. So it's a, you know, a 200 plus million reduction in capex. that would fit us within our depreciation of our asset level.
spk13: Okay, great. And then, so looking at Australia, with the write-down that you had to take, what can you tell us about the long-term EBITDA generation potential in that division, and to what degree would that now affect your ability to hit your $2.125 billion at some point in the future when the market and volumes stay normalized?
spk04: Yeah, so the $2.125 is still very achievable within the structure of what we have, irregardless of the context of a shrinking milk pool in Australia. One of the things that perhaps gets overlooked is the initiatives that our Australian division has executed on over the course of the last year. I mean, there are tens of millions of dollars of cost reductions that we've done that have only been swallowed up by negative commodity pricing in the international market relative to the milk price that we have. Moving forward, one of the big priorities for us is to get a better balance between the milk price and the international dairy markets, and that will only happen once the new milk year starts. But when you've got that balance between the milk price and the commodity prices, then we would be returning back to normalized EBITDA levels in Australia. And then, of course, with a shrinking milk pool, we have to prioritize what categories of products we want to go in. And looking at more value-added categories, that will derive a better return for us. So we're still very optimistic about our Australian platform, even though it will be a much smaller platform for us from a milk intake and a milk process standpoint. perspective, but I'm really proud of the efforts and the energy that our Australian team has deployed. I mean, talk about resiliency. This is a really resilient group.
spk01: And Michael, Leanne, we're already seeing the financial benefits from the network optimization that Lino referenced there. As you know, we've moved from 11 down to six sites, and we obviously have a couple of strategic reviews still underway. However, the important thing is that we've still got more benefits to go with the financial benefits from that optimization. And most recently, with the investments we made in our system facility, we're already shipping new product from that, and we're on track with the benefits from that facility. So although, obviously, we've got good milk this year, it's stabilizing the milk pool. We know there continues to be a significant disconnect between the international cheese and dairy ingredient prices. and what we're paying as local Australian farm gate milk. So we need to carefully review that situation as we head into the new milk year, but we are very confident that we have the right, most efficient portfolio and the most efficient network utilization in Australia.
spk05: And Mike, just to complement with this impairment charge, one of the elements is referring to the discount rate or the interest rate that have increased And when you put that in the model and you use the accounting ruling to make it, it's part of the story as to how we come up with 265. So it doesn't mean that we are shying away from the 2125 or put in jeopardy. There's that piece that needs to be understood as well.
spk13: Okay, that's helpful. And then on the U.S. side, You talked about, I think you've said a number of times, that you expect 90% or 95% of the global strategic plan benefits there to kick in in April. How do I square that up with the fact that three of the plants are not going to be closed until later, sometime later in fiscal 25?
spk14: Yeah, Michael, it's Carlin. I think maybe we want to kind of – clarify the position of the contribution from those capital investments in fiscal 25. We're going to see that ratio of 90-95% of the benefits kick into fiscal 25, not necessarily out of Q1. When we take a look at the investments that have been made and the contributions to date, most of that is coming from the mozzarella modernization aspects. um which you know for the most part the lion's share is going to start to kick in in q4 but there are some other aspects like franklin which does require the permanent closure of big stone lancaster and green bay to uh to fully contribute uh and and you know take advantage of the capacity utilization that that is in franklin so we're talking more about that kind of a ratio sometime throughout fiscal 25 and I think the best way to to anchor and when the savings come online is closer to the dates by which we have the closures so keep in mind that we have a couple more closures by the end of the fiscal year and that in Lancaster and in Bigstone and then we've got Southgate and Green Bay later on in the year. That will help sort of pace, if you like, the return that we expect to see, as well as the removal of some of the duplicate costs that we have in our segment today.
spk05: And Mike, the 95% that we voiced was around the completion of the project itself. It was not so much related to the benefits. So yeah, 95% of the project being complete by the end of this fiscal. to set the tone, set the pace for the benefit to kick in in fiscal 25. All right, thank you.
spk12: Our next question comes from Mark Petrie with CIBC. Please proceed. Yeah, thanks.
spk02: I just wanted to keep sort of following up on the 2.125 and maybe two specific questions. Specific to Europe, obviously some very difficult conditions there. You're saying it should begin to be improving next quarter or this current quarter. Can you just give us a better sense of the pace of improvement that you expect? And then what you see as an achievable sort of steady state EBITDA margin or dollar level for that segment?
spk01: Well, hi, it's Leanne. We're still sailing through the inventory that we produced at high milk prices, given the maturation profile of our business in the UK. But an outlook to a year to go. This will continue, but to a lesser extent than we've seen in Q3, as that cheese product mix is being corrected. And we do expect continued improvement quarter on quarter as that inventory rebalances. We're also starting to ship significant new private label volume now, so we can foresee a much more steady state
spk05: Yeah, I would add to that. The situation in the UK is transitory in nature. We're dealing with that inventory that we have to, let's say, liquidate on the market. Once that is over, yes, we're looking for fiscal 25 to be, let's say, a recoup year. And when you compound that with the volume that we receive, we got from a private label, cost structure review relative to our consolidation in Dunedin from the throne, a cost out initiative, our branded cheese that Leanne talked about is healthy in Cathedral City. And don't forget that the butter and spread business is doing quite well for us. So we definitely have a line of sight to grow for us in the UK. We have to go through this transitory in nature. we definitely feel we have the answer to the challenge ahead once the inventory is behind us.
spk02: Okay, thanks. That's helpful. I mean, I guess just to ask it a bit differently, you know, in the early days, you were reporting sort of high-teens EBITDA margins. Is that still achievable?
spk04: Yes. If you look at the return to historical levels as being our baseline, And then the improvements that we're making in network optimization and other investments in brand and categories, yes, that is very achievable, Mark.
spk02: Okay, perfect. Thank you for that. And then just sort of coming at the 2.125 in a bit of a different way, I mean, if we look at the LTM sort of run rate, it's about 600 million below that target. Um, and obviously the commodity, uh, is, is severely against you, but can you just give us a sense, you know, at a high level, how much of that gap do you feel like is in your control and a payoff from all of the efficiency initiatives and network optimization? And how much of that is, is commodity driven?
spk05: Well, I would say that the whole bucket relative to network optimization, We feel this is our control. It's under our control. Obviously, a lot of the savings that we're tabling for fiscal 25, we feel confident that they're going to flow through. We're not going to share guidance as it is for specifically next year or so. timing links to various things relative to the execution. You referred to market, the volume, we feel we're in a good spot. We have the right infrastructure in place, the right people, and we are comfortable with all the various announcements that we've made over the last couple of years with the benefits that were tagged to each of those that will flow through. Now, it's a matter of getting in that fiscal year, completing our project, and get them started. Relative to the other pillars and the network optimization, Lino talked about the enabler one. Yeah, there's other elements in the strat plan that has been worked on. We put a lot of focus on the network optimization, but nonetheless, there's other pillars that's been worked on. Yeah, we're still working towards that line. And if markets on our side, it's going to accelerate. If not, we continue our pace on things that we can control.
spk02: Okay. I appreciate the comments and all of us. Thank you, Mark.
spk12: Our next question comes from Tammy Chen with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.
spk11: Hi, good morning. This is Riyadh on for Tammy Chen. So I have a couple of questions. So my first question would be, if you could please explain why the international segment revenues declined so much, but the EBITDA dollars were stable this quarter. Were there any one time unusual that affected revenues, but not EBITDA? Thank you.
spk05: Yes, yes. So I'll take that one. Okay, let's say according to the international standard, when an economy reaches 100% over a three-year period, it's defined as hyperinflation economy. Since Argentina has been over 100% inflation over several years, since 2018, we're using, here at Sapuro, a hyperinflation accounting standard. quickly standard index our P&L and our balance sheet per a specific index that is applied that is you know known in Argentina and this is typically a positive for us indexing for inflation but the standard you know the accounting standard also convert all of our year-to-date Argentinian operation at the spot rate at the end of the reporting period at the end of December So that significant devaluation that took place in December now is definitely negatively affected our results operation in the EBITDA, but also on the revenue side, bringing that to spot rate. In normal circumstances, the high per inflation impact and the FX devaluation typically offset each other on an annual basis. you know, basis, you know, one goes against the other. However, in the short term, during a major event like the devaluation of 59% to 60% in a single day, we could expect some timing differences, and that's what we're seeing right now in Q3. That's accounting-wise. Relative to the transaction per se, a lower value Peso positively helps our export business in Argentina as it is mainly transacted in USD. And this helps to mitigate the negative effect of the pricing on the international market. So in a nutshell, the devaluation in December is not usual and it did negatively impact the R-result due to the spot rate going down. that much in December.
spk11: Okay. Just to rebound on that, so then why did the EBITDA dollars remain stable compared to like quarter over quarter? Why did the EBITDA dollar value remain stable?
spk05: Because the devaluation of the FASO forces us to retroactively with Q1, Q2, and Q3 to use the spot end rate. So that devaluation kicks in for the whole year since day one, since April the 1st. So it kind of saves us like 50% of our revenue year to date. That's the 300 million we're talking about.
spk11: Okay, great. And my second question was, in Europe, revenues increased by 6.7% this quarter. Could you elaborate a bit more on what drove this and if those private label contracts are already like coming in or we have to expect them to come in more in Q4 of fiscal 24? Thank you.
spk05: Yeah, well, revenue in Europe were impacted by the, you know, the volume that we have to sell as a bulk cheese rather, you know, there's more of the volume that we sold through bulk cheese. It was, you know, obviously at the lower price. And there's also a piece of the ingredient market that impacted the revenue. I don't know, Eliane, if you have other comment on that?
spk01: Yes, so as we said, yeah, we're still selling through that inventory that was produced at high amount prices, which is going to affect our revenue and our EBITDA. Similarly with our ingredient business, we have got good volumes. We're actually seeing recovering volumes around ingredients, but pricing is still significantly lower versus a year ago due to the overall soft demand for our ingredients worldwide. As we said, though, we do expect continued improvement quarter on quarter as that inventory rebalances. Importantly, you asked about the private label. We are shipping that new private label volume now, and we expect to see a significant ramp up as we go through the end of Q4 and into Q1 next year.
spk11: Great. Thank you.
spk12: Our next question comes from Vishal Sridhar with National Bank Financial. Please proceed.
spk08: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Obviously, a lot of facility improvements coming on over the next several quarters. I was hoping to get your comments on Saputo's ability to increasingly insulate itself from commodity price volatility. It's seemingly becoming a bigger part of the conversation quarter after quarter. And do you anticipate that some of the initiatives that implemented will help you help insulate against commodity price volatility? And if not, what are some tactics that Saputo could employ to insulate yourself?
spk04: Yeah, Michelle, we're always exposed to commodity markets. It's the world that we live in in dairy, with the exception of Canada. Canada's got a very stable market with the milk supply managed system. But when you look at the way that milk is priced around the world, and there are different regulatory environments in Europe versus Australia versus the United States. But we are heavily dependent on a favorable milk price in order to derive the value, especially in the international markets from a selling perspective. So that is part of our world. Now, some of the mitigating factors, some of the things that we can do is to create value brands where we're, in some cases, I guess, insulated from moving prices on the milk and or commodity side. as well in the case of Australia, as an example, trying to sell more of our volume into the domestic market and less into the international market, trading up in terms of categories of product from pure commodity like skim milk powder into more value-added categories of product like infant formula and other dairy goods. So there are going to be shifts into value-added categories because of the investments that we made and some of the energy that we have around marketing and innovation. But we will never get away from a commoditized environment. This is part of our world. And the more we've grown outside of Canada, the more that we become exposed to that. That's just the nature of our business. What we can do is produce the highest quality product, the lowest cost, compete with anybody around the world, I will tell you that once this infrastructure network optimization is completed, we will be, I will say, most efficient dairy processors in Canada, among the top dairy processors in the United States, and perhaps the most efficient in some key categories of products. There's no one that comes close to us in Argentina, no one that comes close to us in Australia, and I will tell you with the value of the brand that we have, In the UK and our efficient network, very few cheddar companies can come close to us. So I feel really good about the infrastructure we have, even in a commoditized world. I feel very, very good about us competing, but there is going to be volatility. There's going to be ups and there are going to be downs. And that's just the nature of our business. We can't get away from that.
spk08: Okay. Thank you for that. And maybe just on the back of that comment, the $2.125 billion target, obviously the timeline was removed. The actual numerical figure was maintained. And now that you're getting closer to many of the initiatives that you're planning for many years now, do you have a line of sight, at least internally, as to when that target can be achieved? And what are the key factors preventing you from giving us a timeline? Is it commodity price volatility? Is it the enablers that you talked about? And maybe you can describe that a bit as well.
spk04: Yeah, so part of it is the commodity markets. I mean, we need to be at more normalized levels, which we're not. You know, we're looking today at a block of 160 when more normalized levels are 180. I mean, we're not talking about a stretch of 220. We're talking about, you know, a $1.80 market price, which is, if you look at historically, that's typically where the U.S. has been. I look at the same thing in the international markets, you know. We're probably about 20 or 30% below what the normalized levels are. I mean, we need some of that to come back. But then there's also consumer sentiment. You know, right now there's still a lot of, you know, although there are some meaningful signs of improvement, we're still dependent on consumers' disposable income and their ability to be able to spend money on value items like dairy products. So there are a number of different factors, and this is why it's hard to give a timeline, because there is no clarity as to when things will become more normalized. But we know that we are inching closer and closer and closer to that number as we get every week and every month and every quarter behind us. So again, I feel very good about the business. I'm not at all concerned about the infrastructure that we've built. I love the team that we have, the focus, the energy. There's certain things in our world that we can't control, and we can't lose too much sleep over the stuff we can't control, but we will press hard on the things that we can.
spk08: Thank you.
spk12: Our next question comes from Chris Lee with Desjardins Securities. Please proceed.
spk09: Well, good morning, everyone, and thanks for squeezing me in. Just have a few follow-up questions, maybe starting from Canada. I think, as George asked before, you know, good, solid revenue growth, but EBITDA dollars were relatively flat. I think, Carl, you gave some reasons as to why. I just want to confirm, going forward, do you expect EBITDA dollars to remain kind of flattish in the foreseeable future, or do you expect some reacceleration in growth based on some of the initiatives that you're working on in Canada?
spk14: I think in Canada, the Canadian team will continue to grow the EBITDA. And by growth, we're talking about more subtle and steady growth like you would have seen in prior years. And that really comes from continuing with the grind. And by the grind, I mean winning market share in various sectors. There's still some cost-out opportunities that are in the works. through some level of automation as well that's going into some of our facilities. We have some products on the retail front that are going to hit the market with some line extensions and so forth. So certainly Canada is not going to be static. Canada will remain nonetheless dynamic. There will be some growth in the overall market. EBITDA, but probably more modest in nature as we navigate the Canadian consumer and the consumer challenges that are ahead.
spk09: Okay, that's helpful. And then maybe switching quickly to Europe, and again, appreciate all the colors on the drivers there. I guess my question is, you know, if all goes as planned, you know, what is your best guess in terms of by which quarter do you expect profitability to return more or less back to historical levels?
spk05: Well, it'd be, you know, starting Q1 fiscal 25. We still have to run through the inventory within the current quarter, Q4 of fiscal. So we feel we'll be in a much better position starting the fiscal 25 from an inventory perspective. So, yeah, you should see a much more normal EBITDA number for UK starting Q1.
spk09: Okay. And then maybe another one is just when you do your budgeting for fiscal 25, what do you kind of pencil in for USA market factors? Do you expect it to be neutral or do you factor in some negative impact?
spk14: That's a very good question. Right now, there's not a lot of clarity. So we're getting a host of mixed signals when it comes to milk supply. The availability of milk and demand are the two factors that would drive outlooks on the block price. On the one hand, we've seen the overall milk production start to decline and the overall herd sizes and total counts has actually declined. That would, in one respect, suggest that we're getting to a better place with regards to the milk supply versus matching demand, which would potentially augment the overall outlook on block price. But there are some competing elements to that. Despite that milk outlook, if the international marketplace and the commodities market on that front, if demand remains soft, It may not have that same effect in the U.S. It may not have the beneficial effect in the U.S. because the U.S. does have a growing component of export and the overall production from U.S. operations. And that impacts as well the overall selling price or the block price of the U.S. as manufacturers who ship in and out of the exports and come back to the domestic markets can then influence the domestic price. So, you know, in many respects, we're not expecting anything close to a $2 block. We are expecting something slightly ahead. And if you look at the futures markets, they're sitting somewhere in the range of $1.75 is sort of the peak point for the next calendar year.
spk09: Okay, that's very helpful. And my final question is just on the network optimization benefits. Just based on what you said about we should really anchor the benefits, anchoring to the plant closures, just given the fact that most of these plants are closing at the end of fiscal 25, is it fair to assume we should expect really, it's really towards the end of fiscal 25 that we should see some more meaningful pickup in these EBITDA benefits, not so much in the first half?
spk14: I think, nonetheless, when you take a look at the coming closures, so by the end of this fiscal, we're going to have two other planned closures. So I think the first half will have meaningful improvements from network optimization, and certainly the back half of the year with the subsequent closures, and then the, I'll call it the compounding effect of full volume entering some of the sites that we consolidate into, such as Franklin, you'll see a little bit of an acceleration in the back half of the year with the overall contributions from those capital investments. So it's not all back-end loaded. Considering that we do have some eminent closures here, we'll be removing some of those duplicate costs, I'll say, in a hurry. But certainly the rate will improve in the second half. Great.
spk09: Thanks very much.
spk12: Our next question comes from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies. Please proceed.
spk10: Great. Thanks so much. Good morning, everyone. A couple questions circling back to other questions. I guess my first question was just going back to your comments on the futures prices and kind of supply-demand exports, et cetera. I mean, it does look currently complicated. you know, in the futures markets, like, you know, expectation is for cheese prices to block, to increase kind of materially, let's say, you know, as we get through this calendar year. Milk prices may be kind of the same, but a little bit less. So, you know, kind of where you sit today, if you think through the next 12 months, like, would you say there's, you know, A low probability, maybe kind of in the middle because you're not really sure, or maybe there's like a decent probability that we actually can get back to that positive spread dynamic that you had seen last quarter? That's the first question.
spk14: I think, you know, despite the mixed signals, there is a reasonable chance that we're going to see the block price overall improve. The spread has a couple of other factors in there, block being one of the most important. There's elements of weigh and weigh components, but there is a reasonable chance that with the increase in the overall block price that is projected, that we will see a better spread situation. If that also occurs, it's also because demand still remains on the positive side of the ledger. I think those two things combined, you know, there's a reasonable chance that we're going to see some positivity in the U.S. business from those two factors.
spk10: All right, super. And then especially given you just touched on the demand piece, just to kind of ask about that, you know, I realize you don't kind of break out price volume for the company or, you know, per segment. So I guess kind of first simple question is, you know, are there areas where you're seeing a little bit better demand? I mean, I understand it sounds like, you know, Europe's a little weaker, but, you know, there are small sets given new contracts, et cetera. And then I guess, you know, just secondly, you know, when we look at a lot of different categories, you know, specifically in the U.S., you know, volumes actually seem to still be doing pretty well you know, relative to a lot of other categories that are, you know, clearly, you know, experiencing kind of a pocket of pressure. So, you know, maybe if you could just kind of speak, you know, regionally on the volume side and then maybe just some rationale as to why is the cheese category actually doing better than a lot of other categories?
spk14: Yeah, it's interesting. I think it goes back to the comment I made earlier. Dairy continues to be a very good value proposition for consumers. From the nutritional perspective, the overall cost per pound, and from an overall share of stomach, it offers a lot. But it also offers a lot of opportunities and capabilities in the food service sector. The dairy foods portfolio we have is almost second to none in the U.S. in that we play in all areas. We focus a lot here on cheese, but You know, there is a whole other side of our business, and we call it the dairy food sector, which is really not influenced much by commodities pricing. And we're talking about things like ice cream mixes, we're talking about heavy whipping creams, aerosol, and other solutions, dairy solutions that we bring to the food service sector. And that supply also crosses a lot of channels. Not only retail, of course, but all aspects of food service, from full-service restaurants to quick service. And I think that with the US consumer being fairly resilient and having a positive outlook, we're still going to see some growth in those sectors. And we have great partnerships with a lot of national brands, and we do expect to capture on that continued growth, albeit smaller than in historical years, we do still expect there to be demand for our products in the U.S.
spk10: All right, super. And then I guess just lastly, kind of annoyingly, I just want to circle back to the Argentina dynamic on the FX side. I understand, I guess conceptually, you know, hyperinflationary, you know, accounting regulation. We also have had, you know, other larger U.S.-based multinationals go through, you know, that same process recently. You know, while at the same time, some companies historically, like, decide to kind of adjust the results out. So, you know, I guess, you know, the simple question is, you know, clearly there's the impact in the third quarter. You know, as we think kind of forward, you know, the next few quarters until, you know, basically that dynamic would lap. Is there anything, you know, we should be thinking about kind of just given how the accounting kind of works such that, you know, like there shouldn't be as much of a dynamic on the FX side going forward or, you know, maybe it is just kind of more you kind of just kind of standard issue year over year, you know, drag because of the devaluation. I'm just trying to understand kind of the puts and takes of how you mark to market and then the delta into hyper, you know, inflationary accounting rules and then kind of what that implies on the go forward. And that's it. Thanks so much.
spk05: Okay. So just to provide some comments or try to answer your question. So the hyperinflation accounting rules, requires you to index your balance sheet, your P&L. So typically, we're running a profitable business. Typically, this is a positive for us, boosting our financials. On the other hand, yes, you do have to convert the report into Canadian, and you use typically the lowest rate, which is the spot rate at the end of the period. It tends to be lower. the two offsets each other. So when you say, you know, how should we think moving forward? Well, if you would have, you know, a peso that would, you know, be sustainable, that would maintain itself over the course of the next future, but the high inflation that's been going on in the country continue to rise, then yes, this would be a positive for us, you know, from an accounting perspective. That said, you know, some economists, some, you know, rational tends to say that there is a hyperinflation because of the significant devaluation of the peso. And some would also say, well, there's some significant devaluation of the peso because of the hyperinflation. Those are linked really close together and tends to offset from an accounting perspective. This is pure straight accounting, converting and so on. On the field, transactionally when we sell and we try to be competitive on the market a lower value of peso is positive for us we pay our milk in peso we pay our employee we pay our all the expenses in peso but yet we do sell in usd so from a transactional perspective this this is a plus and that serves us sort of as a as a hedge for the international pricing volatility that we've seen. Apart from an accounting, which is a non-cash piece, there's limits that we could do to protect ourselves. It's just the nature of accounting principles. Okay.
spk10: So, I mean, kind of simplistically, you know, given operations are all kind of intra-country, it sounds like what you're saying is they're kind of very limited transactional dynamics, hence the EBITDA result, even though you're taking the translational, you know, impacts on the top line. Is that kind of a fair, broad comment?
spk05: Yeah. Yeah, fair. Yeah, I agree.
spk10: Okay. And then I guess just lastly, you know, kind of with that currency dynamic, and I ask out of ignorance because, you know, if you look at kind of other categories globally, you know, usually a lot of companies will try to price at least some to offset some of the currency pressure. It sounds like for you, especially given there's not much of a transactional impact, there probably isn't as much of a need outside of reporting optics to the public market, let's say, which you shouldn't have to do. There really isn't much of an incremental need to have to price intra-currency. Argentina, which keeps the price down, helps global exports and, you know, inter-country demand.
spk05: Yeah, correct. So, you know, transactionally, you know, domestically, we have solid, solid business domestic in Argentina, pay our, you know, our expenses, our input costs in peso, we sell in peso, no concern there. And on the export, yes, it's a positive, but it's the, the, the issue we're dealing with this quarter is the, uh, the accounting principle to convert to Canadian into the hyperinflation accounting standard.
spk10: Right. But I just want everyone to understand it too. It's like, it's optics because you're EBITDA is so strong. It's all in your country. So it's almost a non-event. All right. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thank you.
spk12: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Nick. Thank you.
spk03: Thank you, Frank. Please note that we will release our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024 results on June 7, 2024. Thank you for taking part in the call and webcast. Have a nice day.
spk12: We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.
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