5/15/2026

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Music
Audio Introduction

music music Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

speaker
Ina
Conference Operator

Good morning, my name is Ina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to SagiCorp Financial Company's first quarter 2026 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star, then the number two. Thank you. Mr. George Sipsis, EVP, Corporate Development and Capital Markets, you may begin your conference.

speaker
George Sipsis
EVP, Corporate Development and Capital Markets

Great. Thank you, Operator. And hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Sagicor's first quarter 2026 results. Our disclosures are available on our investor relations website at investors.sagicor.com, which include a press release, financial statements, MD&A, and the supplemental information package containing core earnings, drivers of earnings, and additional disclosures. The link to our live webcast is also available on our website. This conference call is open to the financial community, investors, the media, and the public with a reminder that the Q&A period is reserved for financial research analysts. I will begin by referring you to the cautionary language and disclaimers in our materials and public filings regarding the use of forward-looking statements and the use of non-IFRS financial measures and ratios, which may be mentioned as part of our remarks today. I would also like to remind the audience that the actual results regarding forward-looking information could differ materially And please note that a detailed discussion of Sagicor's risk factors is provided in our MD&A, which is available on CDAR Plus and on our website. A discussion of the assumptions underlying our expectations is provided in our filings and earnings releases. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar amounts referenced will be in U.S. dollars, consistent with our reporting practice. Joining me today is our President and CEO, Andre Mousseau, our Chief Financial Officer, Cathy Jenkins, and Anthony Chandler, our Chief Controller. We'll begin with prepared remarks by Andre and Cathy, followed by a Q&A session. With that, I'll pass the call to our President and CEO, Andre Mousseau.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, George. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us to talk about our Q1 financials. And I'd also like to acknowledge and thank our shareholders who joined us earlier this week in Barbados for our annual general meeting. This is a bit of an unusual quarter because while so many of our strategic initiatives are trending in a very positive direction, in Q1, for the first time really in a couple of years, our core earnings were measurably softer than the core run rate of our business. Our core earnings to shareholders of $25 million included $8 million of negative core insurance experience, substantially all of which was due to mortality in our North American segments. which we often observe in our first quarter. However, unlike last year where this was mitigated by insurance gains elsewhere in our system, this time it brought our core earnings below our best estimate of our run rate. Absent that mortality, we estimate that we would have hit a core ROE of approximately 13%. We also observed some adverse mark-to-market movements across all of our segments as asset prices broadly declined globally in Q1, and as we're net long assets, that effect is more than the revaluation of our liabilities. The majority of these negative marks are fixed income instruments which continue to perform on a fundamental basis, meaning a dollar of foregone income in this quarter will mean a dollar of more income in later periods. In addition, we took some charges in the Caribbean as we settle open issues and drive forward on our integration plans as we look to give our new public holding company that will hold all of our Caribbean assets the best start that it can have in 2027. So let's have Kathy give a detailed financial review, a few ones, and then we can come back to me. Kathy?

speaker
Cathy Jenkins
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Andre, and good morning, everyone. As Andre mentioned, Sagicor's first quarter 2026 core earnings to shareholders were $25 million. The company's operating segments generated steady new business production, leading to solid new business CSM of $37 million. Core ROE was 9.9%. When adjusted for core insurance experience losses, core ROE would have been approximately 13%, consistent with management's expectations. Reported net loss in Q1 was adversely affected by $49 million of market experience losses related to lower asset prices in the U.S. and Canadian fixed income and equity markets. This was partially offset by the mitigating impact of liability revaluations. Q1 was also affected by certain one-time charges related to our Sagicor Life segment as we prepare to merge our Caribbean subsidiaries. Now I'll give you some more details on the segment financials. Sagicor Canada's core earnings to shareholders of $23 million for the quarter decreased 9% year over year driven by insurance experience losses from higher than expected mortality. Net loss to shareholders of $1 million for the quarter was lower than core earnings to shareholders due to unfavorable market-related impacts from higher interest rates and negative equity returns. New business CSM generated $10 million in the quarter, but net CSM decreased 2% quarter-over-quarter in U.S. dollars to $557 million due to a devaluation of the Canadian dollar. Sagicor Life USA's new business production of $298 million was another solid quarter of production, and in line with management expectations. Core earnings to shareholders for the quarter of $5 million decreased year over year and were impacted by adverse mortality experience similar to what we saw in Canada. Also, like our Canadian segment, net loss to shareholders of $7 million for the quarter was lower than core earnings to shareholders due to adverse market experience from higher interest rates, partially offset by favorable changes in actuarial assumptions. Net CSM increased 5% quarter-over-quarter to $158 million. Sagicor Jamaica achieved robust insurance sales, resulting in 7% net premium growth year-over-year. Sagicor's share of Sagicor Jamaica's core earnings to shareholders of $10 million for the quarter was unchanged from year-over-year due to improved core net investment results from growth in loan and investment portfolios offset by a modest amount of residual Hurricane Melissa-related experience recognized in the quarter. Sagicor's share of Sagicor Jamaica's net income to shareholders of $6 million for the quarter was lower than core earnings to shareholders due to timing differences between the payment and recognition of asset tax throughout the year. Net CSM increased 2% to $298 million, driven by strong new business production. Sagicor Life's core earnings to shareholders of $10 million for the quarter decreased 7% year-over-year as a result of favorable mortality experience in Q1 2025 that did not repeat this quarter. Net loss to shareholders of $11 million for the quarter was lower than core earnings to shareholders due to unfavorable mark-to-market impacts from interest rate movements and non-recurring reinsurance-related costs. Net CSM was $268 million, an increase of 2% quarter-over-quarter driven by new business CSM of $8 million. At our head office, other operating companies and adjustment segment, core cost to shareholders were $22 million for Q1, consistent with the prior quarter. Net cost to shareholders were also $22 million for Q1. Even having been through the noticeable asset price devaluations in the quarter, Sagicor remained well capitalized in Q1. The group LICAT ratio was 134% and our financial leverage ratio was 27.5%. Our book value per share was $7.18 in US dollars or $10.01 Canadian. Our deployable capital or shareholders' equity plus net CSM to shareholders was $2.1 billion or $15.47 US per share or $21.57 Canadian per share. We are also pleased to announce our 26th consecutive quarterly dividend to shareholders since we've been listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and second dividend at the higher level of US 7.5 cents per quarter or 30 cents annualized. On that note, I will hand back to Andre to close our prepared remarks.

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

Thank you, Kathy.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

I'm excited to talk about our strategic initiatives, but just to put a fine point on the financials piece. Just as we had asked our investors not to annualize the $46 million of core net income that we delivered in Q2 last year to a 17% or 18% ROE run rate, we would advise against annualizing this quarter's $25 million figure. We believe our true ROE run rate today is approximately 13%, and that really there's little long-term information value in the quarterly oscillation around that figure. Similarly, while we did have adverse market mortality in the quarter, our best estimate is that if Q2 closed today, the market volatility would be mildly positive in our favor. We do continue to make excellent progress on our strategic initiatives to drive our return on equity expansion into 2027 and beyond. You'd have seen in April, we were very pleased to announce the hiring of Eric Sandberg as president of our U.S. subsidiary, which was an addition that we've been hinting at for a while. Eric joined us from National Life, where he was a CFO, where he was the CFO and Chief Risk Officer National Life is a $60-plus billion U.S. insurer, top 10 annuity provider in the market. And so Eric brings to us a lot of that expertise and discipline, and he's going to be laser-focused in helping to drive our U.S. team to even faster growth than we've exhibited over the last five years. With the addiction of Eric, our conviction on our US growth opportunity is as high as it's been since we launched our annuity strategy five or so years ago. In the Caribbean, we're also making excellent progress, in this case, towards merging our Caribbean businesses. While we believe that the transaction will close towards the end of the year due to all the approvals involved, we're hard at work now to re-engineer our business processes upgrade our technology stack, focus our vendor relationships, and redesign our entire organizational structure in anticipation of closing. When completed, we will have radically transformed our businesses across the Caribbean, resulting in better customer experience, which will solidify our competitive position, an improved employee experience, and significant margin enhancements. We do intend to further to incur some further costs in 2026 in anticipation of this merger and all of these will be in service of a higher ROE going forward. So. All of this gives us strong conviction on our growth prospects and the path ahead, which enables us to reiterate our 2027 and 2028 targets for 14 and 15%. core returns on shareholders' equity, respectively. With that, operator, I'm ready to open the lines for any questions.

speaker
Ina
Conference Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your telephone keypad. And should you wish to cancel your request, please press star followed by the two. If you're using a speakerphone, just lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Thank you. And your first question comes from the line of Gabriel Duchene from National Bank. Please go ahead.

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Gabriel Duchene
Analyst, National Bank

Hey, good morning. I got a couple questions. So, firstly, on the mortality experience in Canada, you're obviously flagging that. We're, what, a month and a half into Q2. Have you seen any normalization of that trend or improvements, suggesting that what we saw in Q1 is idiosyncratic?

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Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Gabe. We don't get our information quite as real-time as that on mortality as they roll in. There tends to be a lag of several weeks, so it would be too early to have a view on that. As we have looked, particularly at the Canadian business, we've only owned it for two years. In each of the prior two years, We had negative mortality in Q1. In 2024, it actually came back and was quite positive in Q2. Well, in 2025, Q2 was negative again. So, you know, we still think that we're appropriately reserved, but just due to the size of the book, there's going to be some oscillation around that.

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Gabriel Duchene
Analyst, National Bank

And what segment would have been in like some more small number of high net worth or more broad-based type cases?

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Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

It's pretty broad-based. Our book is a large number of names, relatively smaller exposure, and we significantly have reinsure it on a names basis.

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Gabriel Duchene
Analyst, National Bank

Got it. Switching over to the U.S., it sounds like it was also mortality, but I was reading the release and it sounded more like it was described as seasonal factors. I'm just wondering what was meant by that just for clarification.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Seasonal also means mortality. Okay. in the U.S. sense. And so, you know, just to... Flu season type thing? Yes, indeed. And this is something that, you know, is described and hotly debated among the insurance community. You know, a lot of the primaries reinsure a lot of the mortality risk. So, you know, if you want to read about this, you can go to the reinsurers disclosure, RGA, for example. does talk about this effect. With the U.S., this, again, is the fourth year in a row where we've had negative mortality in Q1. In two of the three years, we were quite positive in Q2 in the U.S. So in 2023 and 2025, we had very positive emergence. And in 2024, which was backwards of what I just told you from Avari, the negative piece persisted into Q2. So, you know, again, these are big numbers relative to our quarterly income statement, but if you look at the overall liability profile, we think we're properly observed, reserved, and we just see this as We just see this as noise.

speaker
Gabriel Duchene
Analyst, National Bank

Yeah, is there any way you can maybe address that in a line item sense that, you know, your experience is you have some patterns there, so maybe it goes through the, you know, expected insurance earnings, you know, and then we have some sort of a seasonal pattern expectation where Q1 is the low watermark typically for the year and that ramps up from there on out as opposed to going through an experience line.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

As a non-actuary, you'd love to do that because if you look at other principles, if you have one-time items, you take it and you amortize it over the period. I think what we've been told is that the pretty black and white principle of IFRS 17 is that when you have insurance experience outside of market experience, when you have insurance experience, you take it now. And you don't get to amortize it. So if you go back and you look at the supplement, you look at our insurance experience, you'll see that three years in a row, Q1, going back to 2023, Three years in a row, Q1 was the lowest quarter.

speaker
Gabriel Duchene
Analyst, National Bank

Okay. Last one, just on expenses. On the last call, I believe you were talking about this year being more of an investment year to ultimately get you to that mid-teens ROE target. Yeah. Did we see any of that this quarter? I'm looking at, you know, does that go through your insurance earnings? Or there's the other OPEX, which was $112 million, but that's not really a core number, I don't think. So I don't know what the answer is to my own question, which is why I'm asking you.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Right. No, no, no. Most of what we're referring to there, we believe is going to run through non-core. Not all of it will. So if you think about investments that we're making to build, we've just brought on a new executive to run our U.S. business. So that's a definable cost that we'll start seeing running through or in in the US business, but if you look at the the one-time reinsurance Costs which were non-core for example we had a you know a small recapture of a piece of business that we moved to another reinsurer which is as net income accretive going forward, but you incur a bit of a cost up front. There was another long-standing issue out there with the reinsurer where we had a disagreement and we've taken a provision on what we believe will be the ultimate settlement. Again, in an attempt to have that balance sheet be clean and pristine for 2027. And so that's what you saw in Q1. Going forward throughout the year, as I said in my remarks, we're not waiting in particular on the Caribbean to do all of our work. restructuring work in terms of bringing the companies together. It's an unusual situation because ultimately we control both companies even if the ownership is disproportional. We're able to get going on merger integration earlier than what would be usual. Usually when you would merge by an entity, you stuff the integration costs into the same quarter as closing, whereas if we continue to move ahead of that, we may take through non-core some additional costs in 2026 that normally you would run through as just part of merging a business.

speaker
Gabriel Duchene
Analyst, National Bank

Okay. All right. Well, thanks, and look forward to the next catch-up. Thank you.

speaker
Ina
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Mike Wisvanovic from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Mike Wisvanovic
Analyst, Scotiabank

Hey, good morning. Just sticking to the mortality, just wondering how would you characterize the magnitude this quarter? I'm just trying to get a sense of is this as bad as it can get in terms of a single quarter of negative mortality experience in And then secondly, is there any way to minimize these types of quarters in future periods?

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

You know, if you look back at Q1 2024, the mortality piece was, the dispersion was different, but it was quite similar in North America and it actually had a Looking at SLI it had other other negative experience which was more around policyholder behavior and so You know just looking if you look through at the supplement 20 q1 had had negative experience in each of the last three years and in two of those years it had gone on to be a In one of the years, it had gone on to be net positive, and the other two, it had been one was negative and one was just slightly negative. So, all to say, this quarter seems to be at the edge, but not necessarily negative. an outlier in terms of something that you would see once a year. And if you look back again at our supplement last year in Q2, we had even more of this in terms of positive emergence of 15 or 16 million. So this is volatility that we do believe is a feature of IFRS 17 as opposed to being a bug in the system. And that applies equally to the market volatility piece. I talked about in the prepared remarks that we don't see much information value around it as long as the investments are money good. It's just net income moving through time, and we feel very good about our investment portfolio. With the market volatility, it would be possible to make a choice and basically buy completely... taking any sort of market movement out of your assets back in capital, which would mean basically taking your balance sheet and all your segments in your asset back in capital to cash, which would have a couple point reduction in your expected ROE going forward indefinitely. And similarly, right now, we hedge away half of the equity exposure that we have that's kind of an output of the asset management piece of our Canadian business. And we take a couple points of reduced ROE just on the basis of that hedge, and so if you hedge the other half, it would be another couple points of ROE. So we think that our North Star here is to generate the best risk-adjusted returns on equity to our shareholders over a long period of time, and we'd rather do so amid teens core ROE and core compounding of value while accepting some of this market volatility than have something in the high single digits that had no market volatility.

speaker
Mike Wisvanovic
Analyst, Scotiabank

Okay, thanks for that detail. And then maybe just a quick one on the buybacks. Very minimal this quarter. Any updated thoughts on the buyback? I know it's not a priority in terms of how you want to deploy capital, but just with the stock trading below book, any thoughts on maybe getting potentially a bit more aggressive on the buyback?

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you know, we we have. As you pointed out, we've lightened up on the repurchases just in the last couple of quarters as we have been trying to let the market develop a little bit more liquidity. And you can see the purchases are publicly disclosed. And we've had a little bit of a magic number around the days where the stock was below $9 a share. which hadn't happened much in Q1. And so while we're conscious of wanting to get the market, give the market the opportunity to develop the liquidity, the further we get from book value, the higher the ROE to all the shareholders as we buy it back and you know, sitting here in our position, we're in a position to have quite a bit of conviction around our forward guidance. And so I think you could infer that the further that we get from book value, the more we're going to lean in to buybacks.

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

Great. Appreciate the caller. Thanks.

speaker
Ina
Conference Operator

Thank you. Once again, should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your telephone keypad. And your next question comes from the line of Darko Mihalic from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, thank you. Good morning. I have a couple of questions, but I just wanted to revisit your answer to Mike's question on mortality. In your answer, you didn't discuss a couple of things I was hoping you would touch on. The first is your risk appetite around adverse mortality. And if that adverse mortality, you know, the sensitivity tables you guys provide, if, you know, this kind of a quarter changes that, and then secondarily, you didn't touch on reinsurance, which is always available. I presume in this market, it's not pricing necessarily very well, you know, given the path that you've just discussed. But I wondered if you could just touch on, you know, if this kind of quarter changes kind of makes you sort of reassess your appetite for adverse mortality. And then as an addendum to that, maybe, you know, obviously I think your ROE target must at some point and at some level bake into it adverse mortality on a seasonal basis. Sorry for that long-winded question, but I just really wanted to revisit it, Andre, in light of the way the quarter sort of played out.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Right. And so it's a good question, and this is something that we talked about this week in the boardroom. The short answer is we're managing this basis on an annual and a longer term basis. And so this does not change our appetite to assume the level of mortality risk that we have. And that mortality risk has been developed through the risk appetite over the years. And we do, you can see in the line items, we do carry quite a bit of reinsurance on our book and on the Canadian book in particular because it is a big old book of business that's been developed with hundreds of thousands of policies. It's our view that our net mortality experience is not negative in aggregate. It just happens to be negative in Q1. And so If we were managing this business to nail annualized targets on a quarterly basis, if that was your North Star, you might avail yourself of a little bit more reinsurance, and that would cost you some core earnings. We're not managing this business on a quarterly basis. We're managing this for... the best long-term return on equity, and we think we are properly reinsured and adequately reserved.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thank you for that. And I just wanted to follow up on a couple of other questions. But first, what prompted the change to the discount rate for your liabilities? It's a bit unusual. We don't hear that. too often. I don't think the nature of the liabilities change much often. So if you can just discuss real quick why the discount curve changed for your liabilities.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

The discount curves change every quarter. And so this is a function of IFRS 17. If you think about the old world of IFRS 4, you would take your asset price movements, which are observable, and then you would almost have a fixer cell through your liabilities to get them to match the asset price movement precisely, which is why you didn't see this market volatility unless you actually had an asset that went bad. When IFRS decoupled, The assets, IFRS 17 decoupled the assets from the liabilities. It decoupled that, it removed the explicit fixer cell, but you're still required to revalue your liabilities using a discount curve every quarter that is informed by the market movements. Whereas before it was explicit, you would just have your assets back in capital going up and down, usually through OCI. Now you have your assets back in capital going up and down, largely through the income statement, plus you have some tracking error where your actuaries have gone out in the U.S. and calculated a liability curve in Canada. We have one that is... prescribed for us every quarter. And that revalues your liabilities as well. But as long as you have a net asset position, because you have assets back in capital, you would expect your assets to be more volatile than your liabilities.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Maybe I misunderstood. I'm aware that liability curves change every quarter. I thought it was... the way you guys had made it sound in your written work, that there was a change in maybe methodology, for example, that would have shifted the curve. But it doesn't sound like that's the case.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

There was one small... In the U.S. in particular, where the curve is not prescribed, there was one small change in methodology this quarter where we added one of our asset classes that had been excluded before. And so, as we had seen illiquid assets becoming a larger proportion of our portfolio, we said, you know what, even though it's harder to calculate these because they're less observable than the public assets, they're getting to a material portion of the U.S. balance sheet, so we should take an estimate on that and and put it into the calculation. So we did do that in Q1.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

I see. So it's like a reference portfolio, and it's got a wider credit spread. Is that the right interpretation? Yes, it is. Okay. Very great. And then so my last question, Andre, is clearly volatility hit this quarter. That's fine. Should expect some sort of normalization. Um, but it's still, the question for me is still a couple of things were sort of still stand out. One is it does sound competitive in the U S with crediting rates. Um, and the question is, you know, does that, do you see that also as something that will ease into the future and maybe this year? Um, and, or are you contemplating other changes like new products or so on, um, to, to to sort of improve, maybe not just production, but also profitability? Or am I reading too much into the competitive environment in the U.S.?

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

So the competitive environment is robust in the U.S., although I would say we had a pocket in time in Q1 where it appeared less so. A lot of our competitors in the annuity space are affiliated with some of the big private capital pools that have been going through their own private capital indigestion with respect to taking liabilities that allow for redemption. And so in Q1, there was a pocket of time where rates and spreads went up and the competitive environment did not adjust to that. And so the spreads that we earned on our Q1 vintage were actually well above our targets. But I'd be cautious. I wouldn't say that's necessarily something that's going to persist. I think if you look through in Q2 as spreads have come in even as rates have gone up. That has mitigated itself somewhat. I do think that we want to continue to grow. We're excited about the opportunity, and that was a big part of bringing in dedicated leadership. He comes from a place that was writing three times as much annuities in a given year as we were. under a broader product set than ours, which has been particularly focused on the MIGA product, the multi-year guaranteed annuity. So we would expect to drive forward with some further product diversification, and our goal is to grow that business faster than we've grown it over the last four or five years.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, that's helpful. So the pathway to the higher ROE is predominantly normalization of mortality from here plus continued growth in the U.S. Roughly, how would you characterize that sort of, call it, waterfall? of improvement in ROE? Is it like 90% mortality improvement or normalization and just 10% sort of growth in the business? Just give us a rough guideline of how we get back to your typical 13 to plus, I would say, ROE from here.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

If you asked us for an estimate of Q2, the best estimate would still be in the zip code of that 13 number, and that would, over the course of one quarter, be more or less 100% the reversion to the mean on mortality. As we see the ROE growth potential into the mid-teens and pushing through that, it is evenly dispersed between the growth of the U.S. balance sheet, where we think on a marginal basis that we are adding assets at a high-teens structured ROE and getting to economies of scale as gross margin grows faster than the SG&A. And so that's a portion of it. We think there's a meaningful uplift in the ROE of the combined Caribbean business going forward. That is more or less an equal part to it over the next two years or so. And we also think that there's the opportunity, I haven't talked a lot on this call, but to take some of the thinking that we've done on asset allocation in our U.S. business bring adult that to the Canadian balance sheet, which because of its size is quite tweaky, and we think there's a point or two in aggregate of ROE with that opportunity as well. So all of those things are not Q2 issues. This is why we're focusing on 2027 and 2028 as we tweak up the guidance beyond what our current best estimate is, which is around that 13% number.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Great. That's very helpful. Thank you, Andre. Have a great long weekend.

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

All right. Thank you. You too.

speaker
Ina
Conference Operator

Thank you. And your last question comes from the line of Trevor Reynolds from Acumen. Please go ahead.

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

Yeah. Hey, guys.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

I think we've, you know, you touched on it quite a bit. But in terms of forecasting for, you know, future Q1s and the mortality that we've seen in Q1 for the last three years, is it not safe to be assuming that we'll see this kind of every Q1 and potentially the offset in Q2?

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

I think it would be, Trevor.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

So, you know, if I was doing a quarterly forecast model and, you know, I do focus – myself internally on the annual numbers, but if I was putting together a forecast model for this company on a quarterly basis, I'd figure out what I wanted to do for the annual ROE, and then I would notch it down by some number for Q1, and I would actually notch each of Q2, Q3, and Q4 up proportionately and say, you know, the one thing we can observe with significance is that Q1 is the negative outlier, but then I would notch the other ones up.

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

Yeah, okay, that's fair.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

And then in terms of, I think you mentioned it in your pre-remarch, but kind of where the market sits today in terms of the mark-to-market, it Probably safe to assume that we see a big bounce back in terms of that in Q2, given where things sit today.

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, it's quite easy to observe where things sit today. You know, the equity piece of the volatility, right? And so I think the equity volatility was 10-ish million of negative in Q1. And, you know, equity levels are higher now. than they were at the end of December. And so, you know, we'd expect that to, if it closed today, to reverse and more. But, you know, obviously that's subject to the whims of all the geopolitical and all that. Fixed income is a little tougher because you can observe data points. You know, broadly, you would say fixed income maybe is flat to negative-ish, although, you know, our investments people might tell you something a little bit different based on some of our names. But if you ask for an estimate today, I would say that the positive piece from the equity would overwhelm the flatness of just very slight negativeness of fixed income.

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

Great.

speaker
Darko Mihalic
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

And then just lastly on the lingering impacts from Hurricane Melissa, do you think that's pretty much worked its way through? And maybe what kind of, I know you mentioned previously, like probably about a $5 million overall impact net of reinsurance. Is that still kind of the right range?

speaker
Andre Mousseau
President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, as we're taking a running tally We, the provision, and Kathy, if you're on, I think the provision to us this quarter was about a million and a half, a million to a million and a half, and the total is still less to us than $5 million.

speaker
Cathy Jenkins
Chief Financial Officer

Yes, that's correct. It's around a million, slightly less than a million, actually, for this quarter in Sagicor. Yeah, after tax.

speaker
Trevor Reynolds
Analyst, Acumen

Right. Yeah, right. Okay. Okay, so still fairly minimal. All right, appreciate it. Thanks.

speaker
Ina
Conference Operator

Thank you. That ends our question and answer session. I will now hand the call back to Mr. George Sipsis for any closing remarks.

speaker
George Sipsis
EVP, Corporate Development and Capital Markets

Thank you, operator, and thank you for joining the call today, everyone. That concludes today's Q1 2026 results call. A replay of this call will be available for one month on our website, and a transcript will be posted as soon as available. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to any one of us. With that, thanks again for your participation and interest today. Have a great day.

speaker
Ina
Conference Operator

And this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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