11/5/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Suncor Energy third quarter 2025 financial results call. At this time, all participants are in the listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is ready. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Suncor Energy's Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Troy Little. Troy, please go ahead.

speaker
Troy Little
Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Welcome to Suncor Energy's third quarter earnings call. Please note that today's comments contain forward-looking information. Actual results may differ materially from the expected results. because of various risk factors and assumptions that are described in our third quarter earnings release, as well as in our current annual information form, both of which are available on CDAR, EDGAR, and our website, Suncor.com. Certain financial measures referred to in these comments are not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. For a description of these financial measures, please see our third quarter earnings release. We will start with comments from Rich Krueger, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Chris Smith, Executive Vice President. Also on the call are Peter Zebedee, Executive Vice President, Oil Sands, Dave Oldreave, Executive Vice President, Downstream, Shelly Powell, Senior Vice President, Operational Improvement and Support Services, and Adam Al-Badawi, Suncor Senior Vice President of External Affairs. Following the formal remarks, we'll open the call up to questions. Now I'll hand it over to Rich to share his comments.

speaker
Rich Krueger
President and Chief Executive Officer

Our third quarter was about completing this year's major maintenance and building momentum for a strong finish to the year. We accomplished both. I'll highlight operational performance. Chris will cover financial. First, I'd like to make a few comments on safety. I've shared before that 2023 and 2024 were the safest years in Suncor's history. Well, the first nine months of 2025 have been even safer across the board. fewer incidents, lower severity, both personnel safety and process safety. I strongly believe that being a great company in oil and gas starts with being a safe company. Our performance now places us among the safest oil and gas companies in North America. Upstream production, 870,000 barrels a day in the third quarter, far and away our best third quarter ever. In fact, 41,000 barrels a day higher than our previous best, which was achieved last year. Also, within 5,000 barrels a day of our best quarter of any quarter ever, this was accomplished despite turnaround activity at both Firebag and Syncrude. A bit of context. Over the past two years, our third quarter has averaged 850,000 barrels a day, 145 higher than the prior three-year average. I'll comment more on this performance shortly. Upgrader utilization, 102% for the quarter with base plant following the successful Coke drum replacement project at 106%. Year-to-date utilization at 96% with both base plant and Syncrude exactly at that level. Refining throughput, 492,000 barrels a day in the third quarter, our best quarter of any quarter ever. Exceeded our previous best, the third quarter of last year. The third quarter is typically the highest throughput quarter each year. That said, with back-to-back records in 24 and now 25, we've averaged 27,000 barrels a day, or 6% higher than the prior three-year period. Our third quarter results were achieved with an industry-leading 106% utilization. All refineries were effectively at 100% or higher, with records set at Sarnia and Montreal. Overall year to date, we're at 101% on pace to beat our annual record of 100% set last year. Product sales, 647,000 barrels a day in the third quarter. Again, our highest quarter of any quarter ever. 34,000 barrels a day or 6% higher than our previous best quarter, which was the fourth quarter of last year. Recognizing all sales are not created equal, our highest margin retail sales are up 8% year on year, while lower margin export sales are down 11% year on year. Our strategy is to achieve both volumes and value growth. Operating costs, year-to-date OS&G, $9.7 billion, essentially flat with year-to-date 24, despite 32,000 barrels a day higher upstream production, 14,000 barrels a day higher refining throughput, and 21,000 barrels a day higher product sales. Higher volumes, lower unit costs. Turnarounds. On our second quarter call, we shared second quarter turnarounds were completed at historically low cost and best ever durations. Our third quarter turnarounds were completed equally well. A couple examples. Montreal Refinery, our hydrocracker and hydrogen plants. Previously, 55 days to complete the work. We budgeted it at 50. We completed it in 40. going from industry fourth quartile to second quarter. Previously, it cost us $80 million. We budgeted it at $71 million. We completed it for $62 million, again, going from industry fourth to second quartile. And I'm really pleased to say it was completed without so much as a cut finger or a spilt barrel. Edmonton Refinery, synthetic crude unit, completed at an industry first quartile level. Firebag, Plant 92 in July, similar story, under budget, ahead of schedule. Syncrude, 8-1 Coker, completed early in the fourth quarter at best-ever performance, cost, and schedule. Historically, this work took us 72 days. We had a very aggressive budget of 50, and we did it in 48. Literally every single turnaround in 25 has been completed at lower cost and best-ever durations. In aggregate, our 25 turnaround program is approaching industry second quartile in North America, with second quartile in North America representing best in class in Canada. And the best news, we aren't done yet. We have tangible plans and a pathway to further improvement. 2025 is the second consecutive year our annual turnaround program was completed at under a billion dollars. Under a billion dollars is now CENCOR's new norm versus one and a quarter billion historically. Here I'd like to kind of pause and make a comment or two on the context on our performance. For two plus years, The past eight or nine quarters, we have announced performance records, safety, production, throughput, product sales, asset utilization, turnarounds, and so on. We've dramatically reduced our WTI breakeven and at the same time reduced our net debt. We've materially grown free funds flow, fueling a higher return of capital to shareholders. We've strengthened and already uniquely integrated high-quality asset base, consolidating ownership and achieving full control at Port Hills, de-bottlenecking upstream and downstream capacities at little to no cost, expanding bitumen transfer capabilities between base plant upgraders and other assets, and capturing downstream synergies during and outside of turnarounds. The impact of our actions is most notably seen in our volumes. which are historically the lowest in the second or third quarters of each year. However, starting in 24 and now again in 25, our second and third quarter volumes have been higher, much higher, with significantly less variation versus historic first and fourth quarters. How? By design. We are systematically reducing variation and elevating overall performance. embracing an industrial engineering mindset, improving systems, processes, practices, and tools, delivering higher, more predictable, more rateable results quarter after quarter, in turn delivering higher, more predictable, more rateable cash flow quarter after quarter. A few illustrations. Third quarter 2025 AFFO, $3.8 billion with WTI at 65 bucks a barrel. Last time we had 3.8 billion AFFO was the third quarter of 24. with WTI at $75 a barrel. Third quarter free funds flow, 2.3 billion, the highest operationally since fourth quarter of 22 when WTI averaged $83 a barrel, $18 higher. Year-to-date free funds, $5.2 billion. Within $200 million of 2024, despite oil prices being $11 a barrel lower. Buybacks, $250 million a month in 2025, every month, independent of oil price. $250 when WTI was $75 in January, $250 when WTI was $61 in May. Year to date, we bought back more than 42 million shares, 3.4% of our float, at an average cost of $53. Year on year, 340 million more in buybacks, despite oil prices being down $9 a barrel. At today's oil price, I strongly believe buying our stock is our best investment, and we intend to keep buying it month after month after month. The fact is, our business model and uniquely integrated asset base, now coupled with much higher performance, offers investors a unique and, I believe, a premium value proposition. High performance with more predictable, more rateable cash flow delivered with less relative dependence at oil price. With any large industrial complex, the highest performance occurs when systems and capabilities align and sync. What you are seeing is Suncor's unique integrated cash generation capabilities increasingly aligned and in sync with fundamental attributes that cannot be readily replicated. 2025 guidance. On our second quarter call, we revised capital guidance down dropping the range midpoint by $400 million to 5.7 to 5.9 billion. Today, we believe we will come in at the low end of the revised range. Now, based on third quarter performance, we're revising 2025 volumes guidance up across the board. Production, revised range, 845 to 855, with our midpoint up 25,000 barrels a day. Refining, revised range, 470 to 475,000 barrels a day, the midpoint up 30,000 barrels a day. Refined product sales, revised range, 610 to 620, midpoint up 45,000 barrels a day. We expect to exceed the high end of our original guidance for the second consecutive year. Now, I recognize the temptation to conclude, well, we must have been conservative. But let me remind you, every single turnaround was completed at its shortest duration ever. Our massive coke drum replacement project was executed flawlessly and upstream and downstream asset utilizations are once again at record levels. The result, every volume category in 2025 is expected to be a new annual best ever. So was our original guidance conservative or is today's Suncor simply continuing to outperform? I've said before, we are institutionalizing a culture that every barrel and every dollar matter. With that, I'll turn it to Chris.

Disclaimer

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