Supremex Inc.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to SupremeX's Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. If anyone has any difficulties during the conference, please press star followed by zero for operator assistance at any time. Before turning the meeting over to management, please be advised that this conference call will contain statements that are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause extra results to differ materially from those anticipated. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Thursday, February 23rd, 2023. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Stuart Emerson, President and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm here with Mary Chronopoulos, Chief Financial Officer of Supremex. Thank you for joining us for this discussion of the financial and operating results for our fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31st, 2022. Our press release reporting these results was published earlier this morning. It can also be found in the investor section of our website at www.supremex.com, along with our MD&A. These documents will be available on CDAR as well. We also posted a presentation supporting this conference call on our website. Let me remind you that all figures expressed on today's call are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. Let's turn to slide 39 for an overview of the fourth quarter. Supremex had another very solid quarter with revenue growth of 19%, a 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement in adjusted EBITDA, and a 36% increase in net earnings. This performance concludes a remarkable year in 2022 for the company, as we produce strong revenue growth, higher margins, and robust cash flow. Mary will provide additional details on our performance in a few minutes, but let me take a moment to discuss the business. Our envelope segment had another very solid quarter, although it was facing a tough comparable due to an exceptionally strong fourth quarter in 2021. This was our first period with Royal Envelope, which contributed close to $10 million in revenue over two months. The integration is going extremely well, and our teams are focused on ensuring we harvest all sales and cost synergies available to us and to drive efficiencies and cross-sell opportunities to meet a wide range of needs for existing and new customers. On the cross-sell side, I'm pleased that we've been successful in making inroads after just a few short months. But we have really only just begun to tap into this potential, and we're excited about what the future may bring. On the envelope side, as the second largest manufacturer in North America, we have the scale and know-how to further enhance our presence in the vast U.S. market through geographic and product expansion, and we see attractive growth opportunities both in direct mail and through conventional channels. Turning to packaging, just before Christmas, we successfully completed the forced relocation of our County Mount Royal folding carton operations to its new home in Lachine where the corrugate box activities were wound down. Decommissioning, moving and recommissioning all of the equipment was a distraction in the last half of the year and production was affected for approximately eight weeks in November and December. As anticipated, these disruptions had a negative impact on our packaging sales and profitability during the fourth quarter. Operations are largely back to normal and we are pleased with how well the team executed this move on an extremely tight timeline during a period of constrained supply chain for both supplies and a tight labor market. This relocation is an important step in our packaging strategy. We can increasingly focus our attention on profitably growing folding carton activities. By relocating into a much larger and efficient facility, we can also easily accommodate additional equipment and volume with existing or new customers. Another important development in our packaging business occurred in early 2023 with the acquisition of Paragraph, an integrated provider of folding carton packaging and point of sale displays for cosmetic, pharmaceutical, food, confectionery, and retail sectors. With two facilities, one on the island of Montreal and the other 50 kilometers to the east, Paragraph brings an excellent track record for quality, proven know-how and capabilities, as well as strong customer relationships. Speaking of customers, it's important to note there was no material overlap of customers between Paragraph and Legacy Supremex. Not only does this acquisition further enhance our folding carton offering in Quebec, but is also expected to yield important synergies with the rest of our network. For the 12-month period end of October 31st, 2022, Paragraph had generated sales of approximately $38.6 million. With that, I turn the call over to Mary for a review of the Q4 financial results.

Thank you, Stuart. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide 40 for our Q4 top-line review. Total revenue was up 19% to $78.8 million from $66.2 million last year. Revenue from the envelope segment rose 30.1% to $60.7 million. The strong growth reflects a $9.7 million revenue contribution from the acquisition of Royal Envelope completed on November 1st. Revenue was also favorably impacted by an average selling price increase of 48.8%, which mainly reflects more favorable customer and product mix in U.S. operations, as well as pricing adjustments to mitigate input cost inflation. These factors were partially offset by a volume reduction which is mainly due to very strong demand in the fourth quarter of 2021. Packaging and specialty product segments revenue amounted to $18.1 million versus $19.6 million last year. The decrease essentially reflects the wind-down of the DuraBox operations and the impact on sales of relocating the TMR folding curtain facility. These factors were partially offset by higher sales in our other folding curtain facility and in e-commerce-related activities. Moving on to slide 41, consolidated EBITDA stood at $13.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 versus $10.1 million in the previous year, while adjusted EBITDA amounted to $15.3 million, up from $12.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. As a percentage of revenue, the adjusted EBITDA margin reached 19.5% up from 18.5% a year ago. Envelope segment adjusted EBITDA totaled $14.9 million compared to $8 million last year. This sharp increase was driven by higher revenue, in part reflected by the Royal acquisition, as well as higher average selling price due to a more favorable customer and product mix in the U.S. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.5% up from 17.1% in the corresponding period of 2021. In the packaging and specialty product segment, adjusted EBITDA was 3.9 million compared with 6.2 million over the same period last year. This decrease is attributable to lower revenue from the DuraBox wind down, our folding carton relocation, which interrupted production over a six-week period, causing another absorption of fixed costs. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6% compared to 31.7% for the same period in 2021. Corporate and unallocated costs were $3.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $2 million last year. The variation mostly reflects an unfavorable adjustment for deferred and performance share units due to share price appreciation. In Q4 2022, we incurred restructuring expenses of $1 million related to the relocation of the folding carton plant and the wind-down of your box. These expenses mainly consist of inventory write-down, severances, and expenses for decommissioning and moving equipment. Turning to slide 42, net earnings reached $6.7 million, or $0.26 per share, up from $4.9 million, or $0.18 per share, last year. Adjusted net earnings stood at $7.9 million, or $0.31 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2022, versus $6.4 million, or $0.24 per share, a year ago. Turning to cash flows on slide 43. Net cash flow from operating activities totals $11.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 versus $13.8 million in Q4 of 2021. The year-over-year variation is mainly attributable to higher working capital requirements, primarily due to an increase in inventories, partially offset by higher profitability. Reflecting the same factors, free cash flow was $10.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $12.3 million for the same period last year. Looking at our financial position, slide 44 shows that our total debt amounted to $54.7 million as of December 31, 2022, versus $44.6 million at the beginning of the year. The increase is essentially related to the acquisition of Royal Envelope for a consideration of $28.3 million, partially offset by debt repayment, totaling approximately $18 million for the year. Net debt, which includes deferred financing costs and cash, stood at $52.5 million. As a result, we concluded 2022 with a net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.9 times compared to one time in 2021. This improvement was achieved despite closing an acquisition at year-end, which added to debt without the corresponding EBITDA contribution, which speaks highly about our cash flow generation ability. At the end of the year, we had $65 million in available liquidity under our senior secured revolving credit facility of $120 million. Even factoring in the paragraph acquisition, we still have sufficient flexibility to finance our investments and operations. Yesterday, our Board of Directors declared a dividend of 3.5 cents per common share, stable on April 7, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of the business on March 23rd. The declared dividend represents a 16.7% increase over the previous dividend paid and a 40% increase over the dividend paid a year ago, thus showing our board's confidence in our ability to generate solid cash flows while retaining sufficient resources to further grow the business. I turn the call back to Stuart for the outlook. Stuart?

Thank you, Mary. We are very confident that 2023 will be another solid year for Supremex. While we do see some recalibrating of inventories with some of our U.S. envelope customers, demand for our products remains solid and we have good backlogs. We have a solid track record of efficiently managing costs and inflation, and we will remain disciplined in that regard. While supply chains have improved and market conditions have returned to more normal levels in the paper market, the labour market remains tight. In envelope, the additional capacity and geographic market expansion provided by the Royal Envelope Acquisition has considerably broadened our reach in the U.S., and we have an excellent vehicle to make a significant push in the direct mail channel where we previously had little activity. In packaging, with the move behind us and the critical mass and new capabilities afforded by the paragraph acquisition, we feel really good about how we're positioned for 2023 and beyond. In addition to the growth opportunities presented by the Royal and Paragraph acquisition, we are excited by the potential synergies and efficiencies that can be unlocked. For those of you that may have not had the time to do the math, allow me to assist. If we add the acquisitions and subtract the DuraBox wind down, our current revenue run rate is approximately $350 million with an envelope to packaging mix of roughly 70 to 30. Our objective continues to be to build the business methodically for the long term. But over the mid-term, our eyes are set on growing packaging activities to about 50% of revenue by the end of 2025. The market is fragmented and a strong balance sheet provides flexibility in looking for strategic initiatives that create value. In closing, I'd like to thank all Supreme Employees for an exceptional performance in 2022. We have really solid teams in both Canada and the U.S. and in both envelope and packaging. These achievements would not have been possible without their talent, commitment, and dedication. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now be pleased to answer any questions you may have.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by 1 on your touchtone phone. Your layer 3 to 1 parameter can launch in your request, and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by two. If you're using a speakerphone, please leave the hands up before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from Liam Dutchinson with Cormac Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you. So, the envelope segment had good revenue growth at up 30% year-over-year in Q4, but it looks like that was all price gains and the implied volume performance was negative in a pretty meaningful way. So can you provide some colour on where the volume was lost and then maybe reference what's going on kind of between Canada versus the US?

Hi, Liam. So 2021, so the revenue, I mean, that was the largest quarter by far in Supreme X's history on the envelope side. It was the beginning of the really tight push. We were at unsustainable levels in terms of production. And we chewed through a bunch of inventory at that time. So the comp was incredibly difficult to meet. And we sort of signaled that the previous time or in a previous call. And the volumes are being affected as we've kind of come out of this extremely tight supply market. I wouldn't call it panic buying, but there was a lot of buying, and we were guilty of it ourselves. When you didn't know when you were going to be able to get paper again, you took every available stitch. Well, our customers did the same thing on the envelope side, and now they're just recalibrating inventories a little bit, doing it down, and it's going to take a little bit of time to see production levels at the same rate. Does that answer your question?

Yeah, that's great. Just on that supply chain comment there, Stuart, does that mean there's any loss of ability to opportunistically win any envelope business on the back of what was a relatively stronger supply chain now that it means less given that overall normalization?

I don't know about less. I think we're focused on the royal envelope sort of capabilities and push on that side. you know, into a new market, into new geographic markets. But, yeah, as paper eases, you know, some competitors that may have struggled on the supply chain side now have more ready access to paper, which impacts the level of competition.

Okay, got it. And then just regarding the segment striking gains at 49% year-over-year, Could you provide some color on what to expect kind of going forward with the price, and do you think you can hold price at that current level, or is it deflating in either Canada, the U.S., or both as inputs deflate and the supply chain normalizes?

Yes. So, yeah, 50% increase in average selling price. You know, some of that was FX. Some of it was, you know, some, I wouldn't call it opportunistic. pricing opportunity. We had to build in some additional costs for paper that was not at sort of regular market rates. So there's confluence of things, but I also think that or know that there was a significant change in our customer profile over the last year. The team strategically went after You know, we sort of jettisoned opportunistic buyers and replaced them up the value chain with customers more program-oriented. So there was a pretty significant mix change as well. We think that puts us in pretty good position sort of on a go-forward basis. It's stickier sales and, you know, we can add more value to the process, but, you know, it's supply and demand, and as, you know, supply opens up a little bit, it could get, you know, it could get more competitive.

Got it. Just turning quickly to the package examine here, it looks like you had very good organic growth when adjusting for JuraBox. So, can you just comment on where that success is coming from, and then whether that trend is holding so far into 2023? Yes.

the e-commerce business continues to perform very well. We've got the Indianapolis packaging facility running extremely well, and it's chewing through work extremely well. There were some price gains that are passing through inflation or cost inflation, but also... just some good product mix change. So it was a confluence of a number of things. You know, we think the team did an amazing job through the move. You know, they shifted production to a smaller facility in Laval. They pre-made as much product as they possibly could, and they got the move done in a very timely fashion with – and serviced customers. Not all the customers got everything they wanted, but we served customers very well through it as well. So it's a confluence of a number of good things that happened.

Awesome. Just quickly, too, can you provide any update on what you're seeing with the acquisition pipeline, maybe between the two segments?

Well, we're still catching our breath at this point, but we also know that, you know, we also know that The seeds we sow today will be able to reap them somewhere down the road, and we have to keep that moving. I would say that we're focused entirely on packaging. There's nothing happening on the envelope side. It doesn't mean we don't reserve the right to do something, but we are really focused on getting to 50-50. We basically exhausted the Quebec market, I would say. There's not much here to look at, so our attention is now Ontario and the northern U.S. states. Awesome.

Okay, just last one here from me. I'm on the Royal Envelope Acquisition. It's tracking ahead of the type of revenue that you guys originally disclosed, so can you just comment on where that success might be coming from so far?

We've had some decent gains, you know, nothing material but, you know, sort of blocking and tackling. We also changed or tweaked some of the pricing very early on. The NQ4 and direct mail tends to be better than the summer quarters. It's got a little more seasonality to it if you think about direct mail. They try not to mail to customers that are on vacation in the summer, so the fourth quarter tends to be higher to begin with.

Okay, great. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Thanks, Liam.

Thank you. Your next question comes from Najib Aydoun with IA Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hi, I'm sorry I joined late, but I heard some of the comments about sort of supply chain dynamics and how that could lead to some competition on the envelope side. And you mentioned a bit on revenue drivers on packaging, but just more broadly, can you talk about sort of your view on 2023 and what are some of the other market dynamics in each of your businesses for the year?

Additional color? There is some, as I said, there is some inventory recalibration happening through the customer supply chain, and we're doing the same. We have too much inventory as well, and so we're sort of paring back our purchases, and it kind of continues through the supply chain. So there's fewer replenishment orders happening at this time and into the beginning of the second quarter, I would say. So, you know, as manufacturers, we're still chasing orders to keep our backlog strong, and, you know, that leads to more competition. And those competitors that may not have had paper now have a – they've either built out their supply chain or the domestic mills are providing them with more paper. But they're still constrained on the labor side, I would say. I mean, you know, even, you know, Supremex has the same issues. But, you know, we think we take care of our employees pretty well. And, you know, labor remains tight. Paper's more readily available. The industry can make more envelopes today than it did at Q4 last year.

Okay. So, when you think about those things, what does that mean in terms of your expectations for both organic growth this year And also margins, like are margins essentially going to be a bit weaker, or do you think there are still some other efficiencies you can maybe extract and try to offset some of these items that you mentioned?

Yeah, good question. I mean, we're really excited about the synergies at both Royal and at Paragraph on the packaging side. So extracting those, being a little more efficient through the organization, but In reality, we didn't have any room for organic growth in the envelope space until we acquired Royal. So really, organic growth in the envelope space is really going to come from the additional capacity at Royal. On the packaging side, they didn't get the big lift. The market wasn't as constrained as the envelope market was. They didn't get the big lift from an average selling price or, you know, margin in on a per-order basis so you know the dynamic is really not going to change and we do have room in that space for organic growth so to summarize packaging we it will be okay on the organic growth side envelope the only organic growth is going to come from the Royal envelope facility and our capability there and And then on the legacy envelope business, we think there will be a little bit of contraction on price, but we think we can offset it with sort of the margin gains we can get through the synergies.

Okay. So when you say specifically when you say organic growth, you're talking about the net of both pricing and volume together, correct? Yes. Okay. Okay. Just a couple more questions. So the paragraph and Royal Envelope, just any updates on how the integration is going? Are they performing relatively in line with expectations? And maybe what's your kind of call it 100-day plan or key initiatives for both of those businesses?

So the integrations are going very well on both fronts, two different teams, if you will, an envelope team and a packaging team. So first, it's a bit of a playbook. First is to sort of calm employees down, settle any angst that might be out there, work with the teams, get to know the customers, top 50 customers as quickly as we can, get into the pricing models as quickly as we can to understand those and areas to improve on that side. And, you know, then you're into the tick in the boxes of operational efficiency. Where can we run product most cost effectively while still servicing the customer? You know, it's early. It's only been, you know, three months with Royal, with Christmas in between. It's only been a month with Paragraphs. But the employees have accepted us very well. The vendors are transitioning the business effectively. And there were no surprises in either business.

Okay, sounds like things are moving along well there. Just a final question for me on capital allocation. A bit of a head-scratcher, to be honest, the dividend increase. I mean, it only slightly moves up your yield, whereas the stock is still trading well north of 15% free cash flow yield. So, you know, even with the run-up and the shares, buybacks would still make more sense over dividend increases from a pure... financial optimization perspective. So just just any updates on why did it increase now and any changes to capital allocation priorities here?

So thanks, Najee. I mean, the reason why we decided to increase the dividend at this point in time was just based purely on the fact of the company's performance. So we've performed very, very well, and we feel that this is a great opportunity to continue to reward shareholders who believe in our story. and believe in our growth trajectory. Like you mentioned, the dividend doesn't necessarily impact our ability to continue to grow via acquisitions. And we just wanted to reiterate that we're very confident and the board's very confident in our ability to execute on the strategy and still reward shareholders in the process.

Okay. I mean, yeah, it's only about half a million dollars of extra dividend payments a year, so it's not super material. Just on that final note, so as your view or the board's view on dividends change in the sense of perhaps setting either a dividend payout policy or maybe a more kind of consistent dividend growth targets, or is that still kind of under discussions?

It's still in discussion. It's actually something we discussed very recently, so it's under consideration. So maybe more to come on that over the next couple of quarters.

Okay, sounds good. Thank you very much. Good results.

Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star 1. Your next question comes from Jean-Luc Cattucci with Hayward Treaties. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, guys. Congrats on the quarter. Most of my questions have been asked already. But in terms of all the various dynamics at play in both packaging and envelope, what are your margin expectations on a consolidated basis for this year?

Margin expectation on a consolidated basis. So, hi, Gianluca. It's going to be, so our current margin expectations are going to remain somewhat stable to what we've seen, what we've published thus far. Like Stuart mentioned, there could be some areas of the business that may feel a little bit of contraction, but that will be offset in part by the synergies generated from the recent acquisitions. So margins in the low 20% range is probably what we're going to see in 2023.

Okay, that's good color. Thanks. And in terms of your CapEx plans, can you share some insight on your plans for growth and maintenance CapEx for this year?

So our growth and maintenance CapEx fluctuates year over year, but this year we're expecting to spend anywhere between $4 and, say, $6 million. That's what we have year marked for 2023. Great.

Thank you. And just lastly, on the packaging side, How much does e-commerce comprise of that business today?

Excuse me. We don't normally provide that level of detail on the business, but it's – just doing some math in my head. It's around 25 to 30 percent and growing.

Excellent. Thank you, guys. Congrats on the quarter.

Thank you. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Emerson, back over to you.

Great. Well, thank you all for taking the time to tune in today, and we look forward to talking to you again after our Q1. Thanks a million. Have a great day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.