11/6/2025

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tourmaline Q3 2025 results conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Thursday, November 6, 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Kirker. Please go ahead.

speaker
Scott Kirker
Chief Legal Officer, Tourmaline

Thank you Operator and welcome everyone to our discussion of Termaline's financial and operating results as at September 30, 2025 and for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024. My name is Scott Kirker and I'm the Chief Legal Officer here at Termaline. Before we get started, I refer you to the advisories on forward-looking statements contained in the news release as well as the advisories contained in the Termaline Annual Information Form and our MD&A available on CDAR and on our website. I also draw your attention to the material factors and assumptions in those advisories. I'm here with Mike Rose, Tourmaline's President and Chief Executive Officer, Brian Robinson, our Chief Financial Officer, and Jamie Hurd, Tourmaline's Vice President of Capital Markets. We'll start with Mike speaking to some of the highlights of the last quarter and our year so far. After his remarks, we'll be open for questions.

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Go ahead, Mike. Thanks, Scott, and thanks everybody for dialing in. We're pleased to go through Q3 and then answer questions that you may have. A few highlights. Q3 25 average production of 634,750 BOEs per day was at the high end of our anticipated guidance range of 625,000 to 635,000 BOEs per day, despite storage injections and shut-ins during the quarter. We're pleased to announce that we have entered into a long-term natural gas storage agreement with Alta Gas at their Dimmesdale storage facility and we view the addition of another large storage position as a strategic opportunity to enhance financial performance and strengthen operational flexibility in volatile natural gas price environments like we just went through this past summer. We've also entered into two short-term and one long-term LNG gas supply contracts, which complement our existing extensive portfolio. Looking specifically at production, fourth quarter production is expected to average between 655,000 and 665,000 BOEs per day, with a 25 exit volume of 680,000 to 700,000 BOEs per day. Our third quarter liquids production of a little over 147,000 barrels per day was up 4% quarter over quarter and our 26 average production guidance of 690,000 to 710,000 BUEs per day remains unchanged, as does the current multi-year EP plan, which is forecast to yield 30% high margin production growth to 850,000 BUEs per day by 2031. Third quarter 2025 cash flow was $720 million and third quarter 25 earnings were $190 million. Our third quarter realizations were impacted by unusually large natural gas export maintenance outages. both the East Gate and the West Gate. As a result of these outages, ACO and Station 2 pricing averaged $0.64 and $0.48 per MCF, respectively, during the quarter. And while we curtailed gas supply during the weakest local price days, the sustained low local prices were the primary reason for lower than our expected third quarter cash flow. The curtailments on export pipelines reduced our volumes accessing downstream markets as well, and that includes our premium markets, you know, such as the Gulf Coast and the western U.S., by approximately 155 million cubic feet per day. So instead, these volumes were sold into ACO and Station 2 spot prices, and that meaningfully impacted our September natural gas revenue. On a positive note, the force majeure on the Great Lakes pipeline ended in early October, and Eastgate exports are at normal levels, and the Westgate maintenance ends during this month of November. Looking ahead, with the benefit of LMG Canada's demand creating additional capacity on local egress pipelines, second and third quarter 2026 ACO pricing is currently averaging $3 in MCF compared to $1.18 for the same price. uh period in 2025. and we think additional upside should be created uh if equal basis tightens further and that is what we anticipate happening uh third quarter 2025 um ep expenditures were 825 million the full year ep capital budget remains unchanged at 2.6 to 2.85 billion We closed a $71.7 million transaction with Topaz Energy Corp, whereby Topaz purchased a gore on the recently acquired Saguaro and Strathcona ground birch northeast BC Montney development lands. And in addition, on October 28th, we completed a secondary offering of Topaz common shares for gross proceeds of approximately $230 million. Moving to marketing, lots of activity as we continue to vertically integrate our gas business and maximize future realized prices. We have an average of 1.2 BCF per day of nat gas hedged for the remainder of 2025 at a weighted average fixed price of $4.33 per MCF Canadian. This includes 57 million cubic feet per day hedged at a weighted average price of $20.13 per MCF Canadian in international markets and 109 million cubic feet per day at a weighted average price of $6.86 per MCF in the western U.S. markets. Q3 25 ACO and station 2 nat gas prices were the weakest in over 30 years and as mentioned that negatively impacted cash flow. However, prices are improving thus far in the fourth quarter and the 2026 strip price outlook continues to migrate upwards. We are pleased to enter into that Dimmesdale storage deal. We'll have access to 6 BCF of storage capacity starting in April for a 10-year term with the ability to increase to 10 BCF in the event that AltaGas takes FID on Phase 2. And we view the addition of another large storage position as a really strategic opportunity to enhance financial performance. and provide operational flexibility with these very volatile prices. On the LNG front, we've entered into several new supply contracts as detailed in the release, and I won't go through them, but they're there for you to read. In aggregate, we'll have an average of 213,000 MMBTUs exposed to international pricing in 26th. That'll grow to $250,000 by exit 27 and $330,000 by exit 28. So a very attractive progression. Turning to the capital budget and the EP plan, as mentioned, spending in the quarter was $825.5 million. As we executed capital projects deferred from Q2, along with the original Q3 budgeted items, really to prepare for incremental production volumes in advance. of higher anticipated winter gas prices which are materializing our full year ep spending remains unchanged for 2025 and 2026. the 26 ep capital program is 2.9 billion and that is unchanged from the release on july 29th of 2025. Utilizing current strip pricing, our EP plan anticipates 26 cash flow of approximately $4 billion and free cash flow of approximately $0.9 billion. The strip pricing includes a 26-acre basis of $1.66 per MCF, and we anticipate that basis tightening towards $1 US as the basin dynamics adjust for LNG Canada's demand. And for every 10 cents per MCF U.S. that ACO basis tightens, our 26 cash flow and free cash flow would increase by approximately $50 million. And should natural gas prices weaken in 2026, we certainly have the option to reduce capital spending as appropriate to optimize free cash flow and our planned shareholder returns. Approximately $250 million of currently planned capital spending could be deferred in such a low-price scenario, and that would really have only a minor impact on 2026 production guidance. On our cost reduction focus and margin improvement initiatives, the ongoing Northeast BC development project and infrastructure build out will provide both significant growth and margin expansion by improving all of our operating metrics. Q3 2025 corporate OpEx of $480 per BOE was down 34 cents of BOE from the first half of this year, so approximately a 7% improvement. And early components of the Northeast BC build-out have been completed, and that has initiated the cost reduction progression and is contributing to the reduction in OpEx in the third quarter, and this process will really accelerate going forward. The Northeast BC development project is anticipated to systematically reduce combined corporate OPEX and transportation costs by at least a dollar per BOE as it is put in place over the next six years. And we see the opportunity for meaningful progress on this target in 2026 and all subsequent years. And there is potential to increase the overall total long-term target moving forward. We have a comprehensive corporate focus on reducing all aspects of the cost equation, as well as our per well EP capital costs in 2026. So we're targeting a 5% OpEx reduction in the deep basin next year and targeting a further 5% reduction in DMC costs over currently budgeted levels. And these reductions are not captured in the multi-year EP plan yet, because we'll make sure we realize them first. and we've always had a very strong cost structure and we plan to make it even stronger going forward we have elected to pursue the potential sale of our peace river high light oil and gas complex so the charlie lake play which we actually pioneered back in duvernay oil corp days if completed this sale would further lower corporate opex and provide proceeds that could be reinvested into our higher margin BC growth assets or emerging EP opportunities that we've assembled in the deep basin. So this initiative is just a subset of the significant internal value creation opportunities that exist within the company's overall portfolio. Specifically on E&P in the quarter, we drilled 68 wells. completed 88 wells and entered the fourth quarter with 38 ducts, the majority of which are expected to be completed in the near term should gas prices continue to improve. We were very pleased our 25 Northeast BC Montney IP90 well performance to date is up 26% over the five-year average performance as we drill steadily longer horizontal wells in that complex and the percentage of plug-and-purse style stimulations has been increased. And despite these more expensive completions, our 2025 Montney D&C costs are trending down on a per lateral foot basis. Our new pool, new zone exploration success continues across all complexes, and we have 12 to 15 new pool or follow-up delineation wells currently in the four Q4 25 and 2026 drilling program. So lots of exciting opportunities on that front. On the dividend, our board has declared a special dividend of 25 cents per share that will be payable on November 25th to shareholders of record on November 14th, 2025. And the company intends to declare the quarterly base dividend of 50 cents per share in December. We commenced paying special dividends in September of 2021, and that special dividend has varied between $0.35 per share and $2.25 per share until this quarter where it's $0.25. And while the 26 free cash flow outlook continues to improve, we will continue to find the balance between the planned EP growth program and the size and cadence of the special dividend. And I think that's enough for formal remarks, and there's four of us here ready to answer questions you may have.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the number one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the number two. If you are using a speaker phone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question is from Kalei Ackerman from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

speaker
Kalei Ackerman
Analyst, Bank of America

Hey, good morning, guys. Hi, Mike. I want to start by asking on the Peace River sale. I'm wondering if you can give us any clues as to how you're thinking about the value of that asset. And I guess fundamentally, if you don't see the price that you want, would you consider retaining the asset? And the part B to the question is, this is essentially a fully developed position that comes with midstream, gas processing, et cetera. Is there any chance that you would hold on to certain assets?

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

I'll kind of – thanks, Koei. I'm not going to give you what our price expectations are at this point because the process is going on. I think you would appreciate that. If it doesn't hit a certain value, we're not going to sell it. You're right. It is a fully developed asset, and I think it's very attractive to people that are looking for new opportunities like that. It would be a great way to start a company. And I think we'd sell it all together rather than break it up. And I did mention in the formal remarks I mean, this is a play that we actually invented, started it vertically in Duvernay Oil Corp days, created a company called Exshaw, ended up buying it back when Tourmaline was in existence, and then the play had a rebirth where we had a different application of horizontal multi-phase fracking drilling for the Charley Lake, and it's worked extremely well. So, you know, why are we selling it? Well, the reality is that the The returns from investing in our two very large gas complexes kind of always outstrip the returns from growing the Peace River High asset in a material way. And so it's been essentially on maintenance capital for four to five years. And we think, you know, we have a whole gamut of opportunities in both gas complexes, and we can use the proceeds to kind of more profitably grow with lower OPEX in those two gas complexes. So that's kind of the rationale behind it.

speaker
Kalei Ackerman
Analyst, Bank of America

That's great, Mike. I appreciate that. For the second question, in the release, you called out a handful of what I call cash management items. And given the recent price environment for ACO gas, I think that's prudent, although things seem to be on the mend today if we're looking at ACO prices. We just talked about the Peace River sale, but there's also Topaz equity and there's CapEx deferrals that you have in your back pocket. I'll leave the Topaz question for someone else, but I'm wondering how you would characterize the CapEx deferral of $200 to $250 million, is that drilling related or is that infrastructure related?

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

It would be primarily drilling related if we exercised on that in a weaker price environment than we're in today. We would carry on with the BC infra buildup. And I think you can see the rationale for that, that if prices are significantly weaker, you know, we'd hold the volumes back. And so that would mean the DNC budget would be reduced.

speaker
Westgate

Great. I appreciate it. Thank you, Mike. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Your next question is from Patrick O'Rourke from ATB Capital Management. Sorry, ATB Capital Market. Please go ahead.

speaker
Patrick O'Rourke
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe just a follow-on with respect to the $200 to $250 million in potential reductions here. Just wondering, you know, what's sort of the timeframe for for those decision points rolling out into 2026? And then is there any sort of quantification on 27, 28, et cetera, from a volume perspective? Or with this, you know, my thought is being a company with such a large supply and inventory, you know, really well-defined growth on the back of that inventory, would at any point you consider sort of gearing back on exploration in the near term to preserve capital?

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

We could do that, although the exploration program has generated opportunities that, you know, should we proceed with the sale of the Peace River High Complex that over two or three years we think would fully replace the volumes from that complex. And as far as timing on When we make those decisions, I think we see if the Peace River High sells first, because obviously there's a maintenance capital budget item associated with that complex in the current 26 budget. So we'd be adjusting the 26 budget at that point. And, you know, by year end, I think we'll have a pretty good look at where the 26th strip is going to be, where basis gets to. And I think it was referenced already that APO is starting to repair itself. The Westgate's back open today, but there is another restriction in a week or so, and then it's free and clear. So we should be switching to or flipping to withdrawals from storage now and then. That will drive price, and receipts were a little higher in the basin over the past week, and a good portion of that was due to gas backed up because of storms on the west coast, and LNG Canada was not taking the same volumes west that they have been, which I think has gotten up as high as 800.

speaker
Westgate

Is that right, Jamie? Yep. Yeah. Okay, great.

speaker
Patrick O'Rourke
Analyst, ATB Capital Markets

Thanks for that color. And then just thinking about sort of the interplay between the balance sheet and potential for special dividends. I know I don't want to call it caution, but obviously, you know, it's been a sweep of free cashflow. Debt was a little higher. You've got the proceeds coming in from the SOPA share sale. So that will help. But how do you, how do you think about above and beyond the base dividend free cashflow allocation and between that special dividend and maybe, you know, a little bit more debt reduction in the current environment?

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Yeah, I mean, we're thinking about all those things. And I think we said it reasonably clearly in the press release, we do not intend to use the balance sheet to fund special dividends. I think having two quarters of the lowest ACO prices in 30 years is a rare circumstance, and for Q3, paying the special using the balance sheet was one of those rare circumstances. But we will continue to look at the growth capital and the special dividend potential and find that balance.

speaker
Westgate

Okay. Thank you very much. Your next question is from Sam Burwell from Jefferies.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Please go ahead.

speaker
Sam Burwell
Analyst, Jefferies

Hey, good morning, guys. Just another question on the CapEx flexibility. Just curious, like, what drives that decision? How do you frame it? Is it based on not wanting to outspend after paying the base dividend? And then, like, what sort of timeframe in terms of, like, viewing the strip or your view on gas prices are we looking at? Is this, like, months, some sort of medium-term time horizon? Just curious about how you're thinking about that.

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

potentially flexing down to capex yeah I mean the main control of course is the gas price and then everything flows from that yeah this winter we're already seeing cash gas prices recover we're seeing very strong

speaker
Jamie Hurd
Vice President, Capital Markets, Tourmaline

November, December, January, we think there's potential for that to get stronger still. I think all operators are reacting to that. We wouldn't expect any curtailed volume today. So you're kind of seeing fully loaded receipts. And it's not scary. Your growth is very modest. And we think that'll allow this winter strip to improve. Tourmaline has a natural recalibration every spring and breakup. So as we come out of this winter and look ahead, to what summer and winter following strip looks like in the months of March, April, May, that's a very natural time to calibrate the intensity of drilling for the back half of the year. And I think that would be a good time for us to also calibrate on free cash and make sure we're still delivering what we've always planned, which is that 5% growth in an excess of a billion dollars a year free cash flow.

speaker
Sam Burwell
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, understood. And then sort of Tying into that a little bit on the Canadian gas macro, like supply has come up a bit. Granted, the shut-in is coming back and it's sort of typical seasonality and the prices come up. But do you think that there's more room for supply to come on? And just asking this because we are going to get more demand from train one pulling more consistently and then train two pulling another BCF a day next year. So just curious about your view on supply-demand balance and how much supply – can realistically come on to fill the incremental demand from LNG Canada Train 2.

speaker
Jamie Hurd
Vice President, Capital Markets, Tourmaline

Yeah, we regularly refresh this work, and as I was saying, November looks relatively flat to last year, and we don't believe we're curtailed much at all as a basin today. Our expectation is next year grows well shy of a billion cubic feet a day on an annual basis. Our number would be around 0.6, 0.7. Exit of Brexit growth, we think actually might even be shy of that, around 0.5 BCF a day. And to your point, LNG Canada will go from not doing anything in the first half of this year to doing close to and up to 2 billion cubic feet a day. We think as early as the first quarter of 2026. So that's a very meaningful demand change. And the Basin will need to react to that. with less exports to the United States, and the mechanism to achieve those less exports will be a tighter basis. We think that will transpire over the next several months. We think there's other tailwinds at play. We believe the bison expansion on the northern border is a benefit to the Canadian export picture. It tightens up our basin ever still. And we also think there's going to likely be power consumption and power announcements over the next 12 months that help spur long-term demand thinking in Canada. tighten up that 27, 28, 29 basis picture as well. So from our perspective, everything we're looking to see for this winter and the year ahead is transpiring. We are not seeing a wall of gas answer stronger cash prices. We are seeing LNG Canada ramp very well, and we continue to see lots of green shoots in local demand, whether it be Power or ResCom. And I think it will take Canada and Alberta specifically getting a little cooler here in the next three weeks to see what the draws ultimately look like on a year-over-year basis. And I think when we look at draws per week in December and compare them to what we were drawing last year, it could be almost a double. And I think that starts to wake the market up.

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Yeah. And the last time the Basin had a demand increment like LNG Canada has, the two B's a day was the startup of Alliance. And I think that flipped the differential for three years. That's right. Yeah.

speaker
Westgate

Okay. Understood. Really helpful color guys. Appreciate it. Your next question is from Aaron Boskey from TD Cowan.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Please go ahead.

speaker
Aaron Boskey
Analyst, TD Cowen

Thanks. Good morning, guys. I have another question on the Peace River High. If you do ultimately sell it, should we expect you to use the proceeds to add capital to the multi-year plan? Or is the plan to simply redirect some of that maintenance capital that was being spent in the Charlie Lake into the Montney and the Deep Basin?

speaker
Jamie Hurd
Vice President, Capital Markets, Tourmaline

Yeah, more of the latter, Aaron, at this point. I think in order for us to add capital in the EP plan, we would want to see strong commodity prices provide that signal. So at this point, it's going to deliver the balance sheet. And it's another source of funding for this infrastructure growth that's going to start to add that incremental cash flow and pre-cash flow that, frankly, we're going to see. We saw some of it this quarter. We're going to see more of it in 26. And then as Aiken comes on and Ground Birch comes on over the years ahead, you're going to see that structural cash flow and pre-cash flow start. So it's funding that buildup.

speaker
Westgate

Perfect. Thanks, Jess. Yeah, thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Your next question is from Jamie Kubik from CIBC. Please go ahead.

speaker
Jamie Kubik
Analyst, CIBC

Yeah, good morning. Thanks. Erin sort of asked the question I was going to ask her, but I'll ask a little bit of a different one. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about debt levels in the business? Is there a target in mind that you're driving to? Is it a function of forward cash flow? Just a bit more color on your thought process around this would be great. Thank you.

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Well, I think we hit our kind of peak debt metric right now at 0.5 to 0.6 times at the bottom of the cycle. So that will drive down to 0.2 to 0.3 as we move towards, we think, a more sustainable long-term price cycle. So we're going to keep that pristine balance sheet focus that we've always had, Jamie.

speaker
Jamie Kubik
Analyst, CIBC

Okay, and can I ask maybe is the peak debt level where you're at Sort of right now, is that a bit of a driver on the Peace River High disposition, or is it more a function of just capital allocation between your various assets? Thanks.

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

It's for sure the latter. It's capital allocation. I mean, we've been thinking about selling the Peace River High Complex for two or three years, to be honest, simply because it wasn't getting rewarded with growth capital because we had more attractive projects in the two gas complexes. And so it feels like this is probably the right time and there's considerable interest in it.

speaker
Jamie Hurd
Vice President, Capital Markets, Tourmaline

And worth flagging, Jamie, the interest is also what helps spur the process. There is interested parties that are looking to enter this basin, and they have unsolicitedly given us indications of value or interest in acquiring the asset. And so now running the process allows all of them to come to the table with their best number at the same time.

speaker
Westgate

Okay. Thank you. That's all for me. Thanks.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Your next question is from Joseph Schachter from Schachter Energy Research. Please go ahead.

speaker
Joseph Schachter
Analyst, Schachter Energy Research

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. Two of them. First thing, you guys have a great track record of making acquisitions in the past. When you look at your two core areas versus the M&A market, we just saw the new Vista deal. Do you see M&A as part of the growth opportunity, or is your internal opportunities just that much better?

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Yeah, we went through like five years of putting primarily the BC Montney gas complex together through or expanding it through a whole series of acquisitions from COVID on. And we have put in place now the BC buildout. uh infrastructure for the next five or six years now we're going to go realize all the upside uh and all the value from those you know really well-timed acquisitions so um we'll always look at perhaps small asset tuck-ins but uh right now it's uh the focus is much more on organic growth from the extensive inventories we have really in both gas complexes super

speaker
Joseph Schachter
Analyst, Schachter Energy Research

Second question, the Topaz question did a big sell down here. Do you see using more sales and then get below 10%, which then allows you to move without market fluctuations?

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

We have no plans in the short or medium term to dispose of any more of the Topaz shares. But we're super excited how that The whole Topaz story has unfolded and grown, and I think it's been great all the way along. So we're happy to be shareholders.

speaker
Westgate

Super. Okay. Thanks very much. That answers my questions. Your next question is from Faye Lee from Audubon Brown.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Please go ahead.

speaker
Faye Lee
Analyst, Audubon Brown

Thanks. It's Faye here. Mike, you just touched on a little earlier about, I guess, growing power demand. There's obviously some bullish projections for gas demand to meet growing electric demand from data centers or artificial intelligence. And I'm just wondering how this longer-term basis could maybe possibly affect your strategy for marketing gas. And if you've had any consideration of specific steps you could take to capitalize on these opportunities. For example, do you think you'll ever have direct gas supply agreements with data center builders? I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that. Thanks.

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Yeah, we're evaluating that opportunity, Fi. And we would look at it as just another sleeve of our overall gas diversification. But we do have lots to offer. We have many plant sites. We have water. We have power redundancy. We're close to fiber. We're close to the grid. We can provide the CCUS solution, although we have very low CI gas to begin with. And so, yeah, we're assessing whether that's an opportunity to further diversify our very diversified marketing portfolio already.

speaker
Faye Lee
Analyst, Audubon Brown

Okay. You're looking at that, and I'm just wondering on the other side, have you been approached from data center builders or people looking at the advantages that you can offer and maybe working with them? Have we gotten to that level or is it just too preliminary at this point?

speaker
Jamie Hurd
Vice President, Capital Markets, Tourmaline

There's been lots of conversations, I would say early in stage, where people are trying to understand how this is all going to work. You know, one of the first things that people were trying to understand first was what the ASO allocation would be and who would be a recipient of the ASO allocation. So that's happened. And, you know, we would be the first to cheer on projects like Greenlight because that'll help consume gas and basin. And the reality is we can build a lot of these. One gigawatt on a high efficient power plant will only consume roughly 150 million cubic feet a day. So we think you could do 10 in short order and you'd still find the basin, you know, in balance and we'd be able to answer that call. And so as operators understood how much allocation they might get, now we're starting to move to that kind of phase two, where it's a bring your own power effort. And operators are looking to add generation to their projects, and then they need gas supply for that generation. So we would fit naturally into all those conversations. We're having them. As Mike was saying, one of the areas I think we were probably most interested in is those co-location opportunities, because it allows us to offer more than one service. And when you offer multiple services to a counterparty, you can enjoy that business. And so we have great sites across our asset base that many of them actually are very, very suitable for this kind of activity. And I think over the next 12 months, we should see all sorts of different data center announcements, some of which would be in the heartland and would connect to ASO, and some of which will be closer to the resource and have a behind-the-scenes strategy. And I think we're working hard on making sure we're positioned well to participate in those that are attractive to us.

speaker
Faye Lee
Analyst, Audubon Brown

Okay. No, that's great. Excellent color there. Thank you.

speaker
Westgate

Thanks, Mike.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Your next question is from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

speaker
Neil Mehta
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, thanks for all the color and talking through 2026 as well. And as we think about 2026, maybe you could talk about cyclical versus structural cost deflation. We continue to be in a relatively favorable oil services environment for the E&Ps. And so just curious if you're able to capture some of that cyclical deflation as opposed to maybe some of the structural benefits as well. So just the cost environment going into 2026. going into 26.

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Yeah, it is. You're right, Neil. It is a little bit more favorable on the service cost side and D&C costs through this winter. And I think we kind of eyeballed 5% reduction in the press release from where we were mid-2025. We're most excited about the operating cost reductions that we've started to achieve already, and they're structural and repeatable, and they will accelerate over the next couple years, and they marry up well to base dividend increases.

speaker
Neil Mehta
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

You talked a little bit about the LNG ramp in Western Canada, but maybe you could spend a little bit more time talking about the Shell ramp specifically and how you guys are thinking about that as the driver that could potentially tighten ACO, because the counter to that is there just seems to be a lot of gas behind pipe, and so do you actually get the price response with the LNG pull?

speaker
Mike Rose
President & Chief Executive Officer, Tourmaline

Yeah, we think we will. I think Jamie outlined that we really don't think there is a lot of gas behind pipe right now. We think we're seeing... pretty much everything that's available on stream at this point. We expect another VCF plus of intrabasin demand when we get cool weather. We're not cold at all yet here, but that is coming in the second half of November. You've got another 1.2 Bs yet to come from LNG Canada when they get phase one and both trains fully on stream, and I think we're eyeballing Q1 of 2026 for that. And you still have, although as I mentioned, you know, for a few days here, the Westgate's fully open, like that's an extra 550 million a day that's still being backed into the basin. That's going to go away when the maintenance is done at the end of November. So, you know, in aggregate, you're well over 2 BCF a day flip. And that's why Jamie was referencing it'll be very instructive to see what the actual draws are from our storage during December because we think they're going to really drive a basis tightening once people figure out what's really happening. And, you know, as far as refilling from the supply side by our gas industry, kind of the best we seem to be able to deliver on an annual basis is that 0.6 to 0.7 BCF per annum. So, you know, it's going to be close to three years to replace that sink. And a lot of that relates to, you know, getting onto the system and basin hydraulics and getting meter stations and the long queues that are there already before you can bring new gas on the system. If you want to bring gas on the system today or in 2026, you had to be organizing your firm service four years ago.

speaker
Westgate

Great call again.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have any questions, please press the star key followed by the number one.

speaker
Westgate

We will pause for further questions. There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with closing remarks. Thank you, everybody. We'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you.

speaker
Operator
Conference Call Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Disclaimer

This conference call transcript was computer generated and almost certianly contains errors. This transcript is provided for information purposes only.EarningsCall, LLC makes no representation about the accuracy of the aforementioned transcript, and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the information provided by the transcript.

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